Folks,
Market Observations for the Week: The SPX continued its rally into our 3/22 turning point day and the SPX has now completed an EW 5-waves up from the 3/14 low on the hourly chart. Are we about to start a C-Wave down here that could undercut SPX 4176 ( our EW alt count) or just a corrective pullback that back tests the downtrend line from 1/04/2022 in a rally up to ~5100? Tomorrow’s tape will probably tell the tale. The SPX did rally into the 3/21-3/22 turn window that includes a 3-star geo-cosmic reversal day and that could give a bigger correction than many traders expect. So, we are getting more cautious here as our “alternate EW-count on the SPX” may have completed its rally pattern near the close at SPX 4522. After selling our CCJ shares yesterday, we are now in 70% cash and 30% PM holdings. Bitcoin is hugging its Person’s Pivot overnight at 42344 – a break below this support line could foretell early Wednesday weakness on the SPX. Crude oil corrected on Tuesday but is holding above its Person’s Pivot overnight at $110. Gold sold off early Tuesday to test $1910 before it rebounded to close above $1920 – our bias is that gold made an important low at $1895 on Fed Day last week and then a higher low at $1910 this morning in the orb of the 3-star geo-cosmic critical reversal day. The USD is coiling under its Person’s Pivot at 98.56 overnight Tuesday but continues to be supported by the US 10-yr rate that is testing multi-year highs at 2.39%.
3/22/22 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX opened strong and closed near the highs of the day at 4522. The SPX continued its rally into the 3/21-3/22 turn window which includes a 3-star critical reversal day today and is close to finishing an EW 5-wave rally from the 3/14 low on the hourly chart. It may take more than just a sideways consolidation here to correct the large overbought condition in the SPX. We could see early strength to SPX 4530 on Wednesday, but we are close to a pattern completion in an important turn window. We sold our CCJ shares yesterday and added more SLV and AG shares. This takes our current holdings to ~70% cash and ~ 30% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities. Bitcoin continues to hold above its Person’s Pivot at 42329 overnight – this bodes well for the SPX early Wednesday. Crude oil is holding above $111 overnight Tuesday. The XLE held up close to its Person’s Pivot at 75.65 during the day. Gold pulled back early to test $1910 but still managed to close above $1922 – solar-lunar cycles are predicting big volatility from Wednesday into Friday. More aggressive comments from Chairman Powell on rate hikes early Tuesday pressured US bonds down and the 10-yr US rate up to multi-year highs at 2.39%. Higher rates continued to support the USD to 98.7 overnight.
Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX rallied into the 3/21-3/22 turn window today which includes a 3-star critical reversal day and we remain cautious because of the highly overbought nature of the SPX and the lack of bears around. We are holding about 70% cash in our accounts and ~30% in gold/silver/platinum in various forms + some newly acquired shares in SLV and AG.
Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Our bias is that gold made an important low at $1895 on Fed rate-hike day last week and we have a symmetry target of $1980 in the near term.
- Stocks – The SPX continued its rally into the 3/21-3/22 turn window which includes the 3-star geo-cosmic critical reversal day – we got cautious today because of the highly-overbought stock market and the lack of bears. The SPX may be close to an EW 5-waves up on the hourly chart – how we trade on Wednesday will be enlightening especially with Chairman Powell speaking again at 8:00 AM EDT.
- Gold – The banksters slammed gold down to $1910 early Tuesday before it rebounded to close above $1922. Gold has sold off on Chairman Powell’s aggressive rate hike comments the past two day and he speaks again at 8:00 AM EDT early Wednesday . A break above $1952 would be bullish.
- Silver – Silver sold off early Tuesday to $24.70 before rebounding into the close but an undercut low is possible early Wednesday.
- Bonds – Powell’s rate-hike comments slammed bonds again Tuesday as the 10-yr rate climbed to 2.39%.
- Crude Oil – Crude oil is holding above $111 overnight and appears to be tracing out a bullish wedge.
- Dollar Index – The spike in 10-yr US rates to 2.39% on Tuesday pushed the USD up to 98.56.
TURNING POINT DAY
The turn windows for this week are 3/22, the Tuesday after a monthly option expiration is a turn window in our work.
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