All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - March 17, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX closed above its downtrend line from 1/04/22 and that is bullish. The AAII sentiment survey printed > 50% bears this week and that is contrary bullish. Our Option Premium Ratio daily indicator has printed 1.66, 2.00, 2.01, 2.04,1.40 the past four trading days which is a “triple-headed island reversal pattern” and also bullish. Triple witching expiration on Friday could be very volatile with all the market hedging going on recently and we would use declines in the SPY, QQQ, AAPL, and CCJ shares as a chance to get long. The SPX marked a low on the SPX at 4161.72 and our bias is that we have started a large bear-market rally that could gain >15% in a few weeks. The SPX continues to trade on Ukrainian war developments - a “real cease fire” respected by the Russians could generate a big, short-covering rally to 4650. Bitcoin is holding above 40419, its S2 pivot support, overnight and that could set a positive tone for the SPX early Friday. Crude oil did a large EW a-b-c correction going into the 3/17-3/18 Full Moon Timing Window and we got a large bounce to $104 today. Gold declined to $1896 yesterday but was able to close above key resistance at $1933 today which was bullish. We are in 70% cash and have a 20% allocation to gold/silver/platinum in various forms – we also added some shares in AAPL, FCX and CCJ this week . The USD appears to be doing a high-range EW a-b-c correction with the 10-yr US rate holding around 2.2%.

3/17/22 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX closed above the downtrend line from 1/4/2022 which is bullish, but we are expecting big volatility on tomorrow’s Triple Witching expiration, and we would use weakness in the QQQ, AAPL, FCX and CCJ to add some shares for a substantial bear-market rally. We are holding ~75% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities + some shares in AAPL, FCX, CCJ and AG. Bitcoin is holding above 40419 overnight which is bullish for the SPX early Friday. Crude oil pulled back in a large EW a-b-c correction into the 3/17-3/18 Full Moon Timing Window yesterday and bounced to $104 today. The XLE energy stocks also rallied today especially the uranium sector. Gold declined hard into the Full Moon Timing Window and tested $1896 yesterday before bullishly closing at $1943 today. Solar-lunar cycles argue for big gold volatility on Thursday/Friday. Overall, we hold ~75% cash and 20% in gold/silver/platinum in various forms and believe that we have started a big bear market rally on 3/14 that could last a few weeks. The US 10-yr bond rate tested 2.22 on Thursday as bonds continued their pullback. The USD is close to completing an EW a-b-c correction with a symmetry target of 97.6.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – We made an important low at 4161.72 on 3/14 and have started a substantial bear market rally that could run up to test 4650. We are holding about 75% cash in our accounts and ~20% in gold/silver/platinum in various forms + some newly acquired shares in AAPL, FCX, CCJ and AG.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold declined to $1896 Wednesday after the first Fed rate hike but managed to close the day above import support at $1920. The gold close at $1944 today was also bullish and we expect big volatility in the PM sector on Friday.

• Stocks – The SPX closed above the 1/4/2022 downtrend line which is bullish. Triple witching expiration on Friday should bring wicked volatility – we plan to add a few shares of AAPL and FCX on the right set up.
• Gold – Gold declined to $1896 as we entered the 3/17-3/18 Full Moon Timing Window but managed to close above $1920. Today we closed at $1944 which was constructive. The solar-lunar cycles are predicting big volatility on Friday.   
• Silver – Silver appears to be winding up for a test of $26 – we are expecting big volatility going into the 3/18 Full Moon.
• Bonds – Bonds pulled back more on Thursday and the US 10-yr rate tested 2.2% going into the close.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil pulled back in an EW a-b-c correction going into the 3/17-3/18 Full Moon Timing Window but reversed higher to test $104 today. Led by the uranium shares, the XLE caught a good bid.
• Dollar Index – The USD is tracing out a sideways EW a-b-c correction with a symmetry target of 97.6.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 3/16 and 3/18.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - March 16, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX gave us a gap-up open which got “filled” post—FOMC and then a last hour rally with the best volume of the day. We view the SPX rally pattern from Tuesday as short-term bullish but want to see a 3-wave corrective pullback to 4300 before adding any AAPL or FCX shares. The Fed’s “dot plot” or future Fed Funds rate protection sold the market off after the release of the FOMC minutes but the SPX bullishly rallied into the close. The SPX continues to trade on Ukrainian war developments - a “real cease fire” respected by the Russians could generate a big, short-covering rally to 4650. Bitcoin is holding up around 41175 overnight and that could set a positive tone for the SPX early Thursday. The Option Premium Ratio went from 2.02 to 2.04 and shows that the bears kept up their shorts into the close on Wednesday. Crude oil is doing a large EW a-b-c correction going into the 3/17-3/18 Full Moon Timing Window and could see a reversal higher Thursday/Friday. Gold declined to $1896 but was able to close above key resistance at $1920 which was bullish. We are in 80% cash and have a 20% allocation to gold/silver/platinum in various forms. The USD appears to be doing a high-range EW a-b-c correction with the 10-yr US rate holding around 2.2%.

3/16/22 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX gave us a gap-up open today that got filled when the FOMC minutes spooked the market with an aggressive Fed Funds rate projection for 2022. However, the SPX closed the session strong with big volume on the last hour. If we get just a 3-wave correction early Thursday to SPX 4300, we plan to add a few shares of AAPL and FCX. We are back to holding ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities. Bitcoin is holding 41000 overnight which is bullish for the SPX on Thursday. Crude oil is pulling back in a large EW a-b-c correction into the 3/17-3/18 Full Moon Timing Window and could see a reversal higher into the Full Moon. Gold declined hard into the Full Moon Timing Window and tested $1896 before bullishly closing above $1920. Solar-lunar cycles argue for big gold volatility on Thursday/Friday. Overall, we hold ~80% cash and 20% in gold/silver/platinum in various forms and believe that the SPX confirmed a bear market after taking out the 1/24 SPX low at 4222 on 2/24, but we may be starting a big bear market rally. The NDX took out its 2/24 low this week but the SPX and DJIA did not for a case of “bullish divergence”. Just a 3-wave SPX corrective pullback early Thursday will be bullish. We like holding mainly cash as the macro risks of being 100% long are just too high with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing, a more hawkish FOMC targeting inflation, and the scary war in the Ukraine which could escalate to dangerous levels. The US economy is highly levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies and trading profits may be difficult this year. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months and (see the Closed End Fund (CEF) bond sector A/D line) and the Fed’s tightening will accelerate this. The US 10-yr bond rate tested 2.22 on Wednesday as bonds continue their pullback. The USD continues to hold up around 99 on Wednesday night.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – Taking out SPX 4222 on 2/24 confirmed a bear market in our work, but we may have made an important market low this week as the NDX took out its 2/24 low but the SPX and DJIA held above theirs for a case of “bullish divergence”. We are holding about 80% cash in our stock accounts and ~20% in gold/silver/platinum in various forms.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold declined to $1896 Wednesday after the first Fed rate hike but managed to close the day above import support at $1920.

• Stocks – The SPX gave us an EW 5-wave advance from Tuesday which is bullish. Just a 3-wave correction to 4300 early Thursday could see us start a rally to 4650. We may add a few shares of AAPL and FCX if we get the right set up.
• Gold – Gold declined to $1896 as we entered the 3/17-3/18 Full Moon Timing Window but managed to close above $1920. The solar-lunar cycles are predicting big volatility on Thursday/Friday.   
• Silver – Silver declined to $24.55 post-Fed but rallied to test its R2 resistance pivot at 25.55 overnight Wednesday – we are expecting big volatility going into the 3/18 Full Moon.
• Bonds – Bonds pulled back more on Wednesday as the US 10-yr rate tested 2.46% after the FOMC minutes and the start of the Fed tightening cycle.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil is pulling back in an EW a-b-c correction going into the 3/17-3/18 Full Moon Timing Window and we could see a reversal higher.
• Dollar Index – The USD is tracing out a sideways EW a-b-c correction on the hourly chart as it holds in the 98-99 range.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 3/16 and 3/18.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - March 15, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX rallied big today and some analysts have declared that a low is in. Our Option Premium Ratio printed at 2.02 today and that keeps us in the bearish camp for tomorrow. We believe that the language of the FOMC minutes will be received negatively by the markets. The Fed is expected to raise the Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points, but it is possible that QE (Quantitative Easing) could be curtailed entirely and the market could sell off on this. The SPX continues to trade on Ukrainian war developments and hopes for a favorable diplomatic solution. Bitcoin rallied up to test 42000 overnight Tuesday but then collapsed to 39000 – this sets a negative tone for the SPX early Wednesday. The Option Premium Ratio went from 2.01 to 2.02 today and shows that the bears kept up their shorts into the close. Crude oil fell to 93.53 on Tuesday and the oil stocks got hit hard. In contrast, gold fell to test $1908 but the gold stocks held up which is a sign of strength. We are in 80% cash and have a 20% allocation to gold/silver/platinum in various forms. The USD continues to hold up around 99 on Tuesday night with the US 10-yr rate at 2.16%.

3/15/22 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX rallied hard today and some analysts are calling that the low is in. However, the Option Premium Ratio printed 2.02 and that shows that the bears continue to hold their puts.  The “Leading Diagonal” pattern target has the SPX touching 4050 later this week perhaps near the 3/18 Full Moon. We are expecting big volatility after the FOMC minutes on Fed Wednesday as the markets adjust to an expected rate increase from the Fed and a possible curtailment of the Fed’s QE program. We are back to holding ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities. After rallying to 42000 overnight Tuesday, Bitcoin collapsed to 39000 which augurs for a weak SPX open early Wednesday. The plunge in crude oil to $93.53 hit the oil stocks hard as many traders took their profits. Gold declined hard as well and tested $1908 but in contrast to crude oil, the gold stocks rallied with the SPX which is a sign of strength. Overall, we hold ~80% cash and 20% in gold/silver/platinum in various forms and believe that the SPX confirmed a bear market after taking out the 1/24 SPX low at 4222 on 2/24. We like holding mainly cash as the macro risks of being 100% long are just too high with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing, a more hawkish FOMC targeting inflation, and the scary war in the Ukraine which could escalate to dangerous levels. The US economy is highly levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies and trading profits may be difficult this year. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months and (see the Closed End Fund (CEF) bond sector A/D line) and the Fed’s tightening will accelerate this. The US 10-yr bond rate tested 2.16 on Tuesday as bonds continue their pullback. The USD continues to hold up around 99 on Tuesday night.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – Taking out SPX 4222 on 2/24 confirmed a bear market in our work. The NDX gave us a 5% turn-around day on 2/24 which has only happened before in bear markets. We are holding about 80% cash in our stock accounts and ~20% in gold/silver/platinum in various forms. The 3/7-3/8 SPX 3-star geo-cosmic turn window gave us a short-term low last week that could be undercut as we approach the expected Fed rate hike on Wednesday.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold continued its decline to test $1908 on Tuesday but it did close above the important $1920 level after making a symmetry correction from the $2078.8 high last week.

• Stocks – The SPX rallied hard today, but the Lead Diagonal interpretation could take us down to 4050 into Friday’s Full Moon.
• Gold – Gold tagged $1908 intra-day but managed to close above key support at $1920 as gold stocks made a strong showing.   
• Silver – Silver fell to $24.75 but managed to close around $25.20 as silver stocks rallied.
• Bonds – Bonds pulled back more on Tuesday as the US 10-yr rate tested 2.16%.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil fell hard to $93.53 and brought the oil stocks down hard.
• Dollar Index – The USD is holding up around 99 Tuesday night as rates make highs for the year.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 3/16 and 3/18.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - March 14, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX started a volatile week which could take us down to the “Leading Diagonal” target from Jan 4 of SPX 4050 after the FOMC minutes on Wednesday. The FOMC is expected to raise the Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points but it is possible that QE (Quantitative Easing) could be aggressively curtailed. After the 3/8 SPX low, the market consolidated sideways into Friday before a hard leg down into the weekend that continued into Monday. The SPX continues to trade on Ukrainian war developments and hopes for a favorable diplomatic solution. Bitcoin is testing 39000 Monday night but looks weak which is a bearish signal for the SPX early Tuesday. The Option Premium Ratio jumped from 1.66 to 2.01 and saw the bears loading up for more decline. Crude oil is undercutting $100 Monday night which was our target and the oil stocks(XLE) could get hit on Tuesday. Gold continues to cycle down into Fed Wednesday and is testing $1941 overnight Monday. We are in 80% cash and have a 20% allocation to gold/silver/platinum in various forms. The USD is holding up around 99 on Monday night after the US 10-yr rate hit 2.14%.

3/14/22 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX made a short-term low on the 3/8 3-star geo-cosmic turn window and then gave us a volatile sideways consolidation pattern into early Friday before a hard leg down that extended into Monday. The “Leading Diagonal” pattern target has the SPX touching 4050 after the FOMC minutes on Wednesday. We are expecting big volatility this week as the markets adjust to an expected rate increase from the Fed and a possible curtailment of the Fed’s QE program. The breakdown in Asian markets continued on Monday as Chinese Big Tech stocks (FXI) continued to be sold hard. The Option Premium Ratio gave us a move from 1.66 to 2.01 on Monday as the bears continued to add to their shorts which is bearish for Tuesday. The AAPL stock undercut its February low on Monday but chartists argue that $138 is possible this week. We are back to holding ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities. Bitcoin is testing 39000 Monday night and looks weak which augurs for a weak SPX opening on Tuesday. Crude oil started a large 3-wave correction last week that undercut $100 Monday and tagged $97.20. Gold declined with the SPX on Monday and tested $1941 overnight. Overall, we hold ~80% cash and 20% in gold/silver/platinum in various forms and believe that the SPX confirmed a bear market after taking out the 1/24 SPX low at 4222 on 2/24. We like holding mainly cash as the macro risks of being 100% long are just too high with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing, a more hawkish FOMC targeting inflation, and the scary war in the Ukraine which could escalate to dangerous levels. The US economy is highly levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies and trading profits may be difficult this year. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months and (see the Closed End Fund (CEF) bond sector A/D line) and the Fed’s tightening will accelerate this. The US 10-yr bond rate tested 2.14 on Monday as bonds continue their pullback. The USD continues to hold up around 99 on Monday night.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – Taking out SPX 4222 on 2/24 confirmed a bear market in our work. The NDX gave us a 5% turn-around day on 2/24 which has only happened before in bear markets. We are holding about 80% cash in our stock accounts and ~20% in gold/silver/platinum in various forms. The 3/7-3/8 SPX 3-star geo-cosmic turn window gave us a short-term low last week that could be undercut as we approach the expected Fed rate hike on Wednesday.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold continued its decline to test $1941 on Monday night – a symmetry decline from last week would target $1914.

• Stocks – The SPX tested its 3/8 low at 4159 on Monday and looks to go lower into Fed Wednesday – the Lead Diagonal target would take us down to 4050. AAPL undercut its 3/8 low and could target $138 this week.
• Gold – Gold tagged $1941 Monday night and has a symmetry target of $1914.
• Silver – Silver pulled back to test $25.10 early Monday but silver stocks held up well.
• Bonds – Bonds pulled back more on Monday as the US 10-yr rate tested 2.14%.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil traced out a large EW a-b-c correction from last week that undercut $100 Monday night. The XLE stock should be pressured early Tuesday.
• Dollar Index – The USD is holding up around 99 Monday night as rates make highs for the year.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 3/14 and 3/16.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - March 13, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  Prepare for a volatile week ahead with the Fed meeting. The E-mini spiked pre-market Friday on a false rumor that Putin was looking for a negotiated settlement in the Ukraine, but further Russian missile attacks dispelled that notion and the SPX closed very weak. After the 3/8 SPX low, the market consolidated sideways into Friday before a hard leg down into the weekend. The SPX continues to trade on Ukrainian war developments and hopes for a favorable diplomatic solution – the Leading Diagonal pattern from the Jan 4 high still calls for a low at 4050. Bitcoin is trading around 38100 Sunday night and looks weak which is a bearish signal for the SPX early Monday. Crude oil is pulling back in a large 3-wave correction that could undercut $100 by Monday. Gold bounced higher on Thursday but met early resistance at Person’s Pivot at $2014 before a pullback into 1963 early Friday. We are in 80% cash and have a 20% allocation to gold/silver/platinum in various forms. The USD is spiking Sunday night to give us a B-Wave test of 99.42.

3/13/22 (Commentary for Sunday) The SPX made a short-term low on the 3/8 3-star geo-cosmic turn window and then gave us a volatile sideways consolidation pattern into early Friday before a hard leg down into the weekend. We are expecting big volatility this week as the markets adjust to an expected rate increase from the Fed and a possible curtailment of the Fed’s QE program. The breakdown in Asian markets was most disconcerting on Friday and makes us cautious for Monday. The Option Premium Ratio gave us back-to-back readings of 2.18 on Tuesday and Wednesday and gave us hope for a short-term SPX rally but developments in the Ukraine continue to strangle rally attempts. We are back to holding ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities. Bitcoin is testing 38100 Sunday night and looks weak which augurs for a weak SPX opening on Monday. Crude oil started a large 3-wave correction that could undercut $100 by Monday. Gold declined to $1961 early Friday and could bounce into Monday if stocks are put under pressure. Overall, we hold ~80% cash and 20% in gold/silver/platinum in various forms and believe that the SPX confirmed a bear market after taking out the 1/24 SPX low at 4222 on 2/24. We like holding mainly cash as the macro risks of being 100% long are just too high with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing, a more hawkish FOMC targeting inflation, and the scary war in the Ukraine which could escalate to dangerous levels. The US economy is highly levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies and trading profits may be difficult this year. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months and (see the Closed End Fund (CEF) bond sector A/D line) and the Fed’s tightening will accelerate this. The US 10-yr bond rate looks ready to test 2.05% on Monday as bonds continue their pullback. The USD is spiking in a possible B-Wave test to 99.42 on Sunday night.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – Taking out SPX 4222 on 2/24 confirmed a bear market in our work. The NDX gave us a 5% turn-around day on 2/24 which has only happened before in bear markets. We are holding about 80% cash in our stock accounts and ~20% in gold/silver/platinum in various forms. The 3/7-3/8 SPX 3-star geo-cosmic turn window gave us a short-term low last week that could be undercut as we approach the expected Fed rate hike on Wednesday.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold tested lows for the week at $1961 early Friday – we could see a bounce into Monday before the Fed meeting.

• Stocks – The SPX closed weak on Friday after another Putin fake out pre-market. The 3-star geo-cosmic reversal window gave us a short-term SPX low on 3/8 but all we got was a volatile sideways consolidation into Friday before lows for the week in AAPL and other key stocks.
• Gold – Gold tested $1961 early Friday and appears set up for a bounce into Monday.
• Silver – Silver pulled back to test $25.70 early Friday and appear poised for a bounce into Monday.  A run to $30 in the near-term is a possibility.
• Bonds – Bonds are pulling back more on Sunday night and the US 10-yr rate could test  2.05% on Monday.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil is tracing out a large EW a-b-c correction that could undercut $100 on Monday.
• Dollar Index – The USD is giving us a B-Wave test of the 99.42 high on Sunday night.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 3/14 and 3/16.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - March 10, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The CPI inflation report came in hotter than expected and with no good news out of the Ukraine, the SPX opened down and retraced much of the rally gains from Wednesday. Is the SPX consolidating for the next leg down or a bounce higher before next week’s Fed meeting? The SPX continues to trade on Ukrainian war developments and hopes for a favorable diplomatic solution – diplomatic progress could spark a sizable “short covering” rally that could last a few days. Bitcoin is pulling back to 38158 overnight Thursday and that sets a negative tone for the SPX early Friday. Crude oil is pulling back in a large 3-wave correction that could undercut $100 by Friday. Gold bounced higher on Thursday but met early resistance at Person’s Pivot at $2014 that kept it contained throughout the session. We are in 80% cash and have a 20% allocation to gold/silver/platinum in various forms. The USD declined in 5-waves on the hourly chart and tested 97.7 before a bounce – we may have made an important top at   99.41.

3/10/22 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX made a short-term low on the 3/8 3-star geo-cosmic turn window and has given us a volatile sideways consolidation pattern. Is this a prelude to the next SPX leg lower or a bounce into next week’s Fed meeting? The SPX appears ripe for a multi-day “retracement rally” in an ongoing bear market but the market could break down as well. The Option Premium Ratio gave us back-to-back readings of 2.18 on Tuesday and Wednesday and that is a short-term buy signal. We are back to holding ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities – our favorite PM equity is SBSW, a platinum stock that we added to on Tuesday. Bitcoin pulled back to 38158 overnight Thursday but with “bullish divergence”  - Bitcoin has been leading the NDX in recent weeks. Crude oil started a large 3-wave correction that could undercut $100 Friday. From the $2078 high in gold we got just an EW a-b-c correction to $1980 early Thursday before a bounce – the GDX is leading gold higher here which is bullish. Overall, we hold ~80% cash and 20% in gold/silver/platinum in various forms and believe that the SPX confirmed a bear market after taking out the 1/24 SPX low at 4222 on 2/24. We like holding mainly cash as the macro risks of being 100% long are just too high with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and a more hawkish FOMC targeting inflation. The US economy is highly levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies and trading profits may be difficult this year. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months and (see the Closed End Fund (CEF) bond sector A/D line) and the Fed’s tightening will accelerate this. The US 10-yr bond rate spiked higher to 2.02% on Thursday as bonds continued their pullback. The USD gave us 5-waves down on the hourly chart from 99.41 and may have given us a short-term top.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – Taking out SPX 4222 on 2/24 confirmed a bear market in our work. The NDX gave us a 5% turn-around day on 2/24 which has only happened before in bear markets. We are holding about 80% cash in our stock accounts and ~20% in gold/silver/platinum in various forms. The 3/7-3/8 SPX 3-star geo-cosmic turn window has given us a short-term low this week.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold tested $2078 Tuesday but only gave us a 3-wave correction to $1980 before bouncing early Thursday. The GDX lead gold higher this morning.

• Stocks – The SPX pulled back early on the hot CPI report but managed a bounce into the close. Back-to-back values of the Option Premium Ratio at 2.18 on Tuesday/Wednesday could be a bullish signal for the SPX. The 3-star geo-cosmic reversal window may have made a SPX low on 3/8 but all we have gotten is a volatile sideways consolidation.
• Gold – From the $2078 gold high on Tuesday, we have pulled back in a large 3-wave move correction to $1980 and now appear to be coiling for a bounce. The GDX is leading gold higher which is bullish.
• Silver – Silver tested $27.50 Tuesday and then pulled back in 3-waves into early Thursday.  A run to $30 in the near-term is a possibility.
• Bonds – Bonds pulled back more on Thursday as the US 10-yr rate spiked to 2.02% after the hot CPI report.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil is tracing out a large EW a-b-c correction that could undercut $100 on Friday.
• Dollar Index – The USD pulled back in 5-waves on the hourly chart from the 99.41 high on Monday – this is a SELL SIGNAL.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 3/7-3/8.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - March 9, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX had a strong rally day today where all sectors but the energy sector advanced. Is this just another 1-day short-covering bounce or the start of a bullish trend? How the SPX responds to the CPI inflation report early Thursday will probably tell us. The SPX continues to trade on Ukrainian war developments and hopes for a favorable diplomatic solution – diplomatic progress could spark a sizable “short covering” rally that could last a few days. Bitcoin is pulling back to its Person’s Pivot at 41008 overnight and that is negative for the SPX early Thursday. Crude oil is pulling back in a large 3-wave correction that could undercut $100. Gold is pulling back in a large 3-wave correction that is testing $1980 overnight Wednesday. We are in 80% cash and have a 20% allocation to gold/silver/platinum in various forms. The USD is pulling back impulsively and may have put in a significant top near 100.

3/09/22 (Commentary for Wednesday) When Biden announced the sanction of Russia oil imports on Tuesday, the crude oil markets may have already discounted the news and we started a correction. The SPX entered the 3/7-3/8 3-star geo-cosmic turn window and may have found a short-term low. The SPX appears ripe for a multi-day “retracement rally” in an ongoing bear market – a cooler than expected CPI inflation report early Thursday could be a catalyst. We are back to holding ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities – our favorite PM equity is SBSW, a platinum stock that we added yesterday. Bitcoin is testing its Person’s Pivot near 41000 overnight and more weakness could be negative for the SPX early Thursday. Crude oil started a large 3-wave correction that could undercut $100 Thursday. Gold spiked higher to test $2078 on Tuesday before a $100 correction took us down to $1980 overnight Thursday – an EW 5-wave down gold decline on the hourly chart would be a SELL SIGNAL. Overall, we hold ~80% cash and 20% in gold/silver/platinum in various forms and believe that the SPX confirmed a bear market after taking out the 1/24 SPX low at 4222 on 2/24. We like holding mainly cash as the macro risks of being 100% long are just too high with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and a more hawkish FOMC targeting inflation. The US economy is highly levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies and trading profits may be difficult this year. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months and (see the Closed End Fund (CEF) bond sector A/D line) and the Fed’s tightening will accelerate this. The US 10-yr bond rate spiked higher to 1.95% as bonds pulled back. The USD may have peaked near 100 before a correction  took hold.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – Taking out SPX 4222 on 2/24 confirmed a bear market in our work. The NDX gave us a 5% turn-around day on 2/24 which has only happened before in bear markets. We are holding about 80% cash in our stock accounts and ~20% in gold/silver/platinum in various forms. The 3/7-3/8 SPX 3-star geo-cosmic turn window may have started a retracement rally today.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold tested $2078 Tuesday and gave us another $100 correction in sympathy with crude oil. The CPI inflation report early Thursday is the next catalyst.  

• Stocks – The SPX rallied hard today and every sector but energy closed positive. Is this a 1-day short-covering bounce or the start of a multi-day retracement. The CPI report early Thursday should be a catalyst for the SPX. The 3-star geo-cosmic reversal window here for the SPX looks like an important low.
• Gold – Gold tested $2078 Tuesday and then pulled back $100 on Wednesday to test $1980. The CPI report should be a catalyst for gold.
• Silver – Silver tested $27.50 Tuesday and then pulled back in 5-waves on Wednesday.  We favor silver over gold on a pullback.
• Bonds – Bonds pulled back more on Wednesday as the US 10-yr rate spiked to 1.95%.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil is tracing out a large EW a-b-c correction that could undercut $100.
• Dollar Index – The USD tested 100 which could be an important short-term top.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 3/7-3/8.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - March 8, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX sold off more today into the 3-star geo-cosmic turn window on 3/07/22-3/08/2022 and closed at 4171. After Biden announced the US sanction of Russian oil imports, the SPX tried to bounce on a “sell the rumor, buy the fact” moment but the rallied failed and the SPX closed down. The SPX continues to trade on Ukrainian war developments and hopes for a favorable diplomatic solution – diplomatic progress could spark a sizable “short covering” rally. Bitcoin rallied to test 42000 overnight Tuesday and that is positive for the SPX early Wednesday. Crude is coiling sideways overnight and may be forming a “bull flag” pattern on the hourly chart. Gold tested $2078 on Tuesday window and is coiling sideways overnight. We are in 80% cash and have a 20% allocation to gold/silver/platinum in various forms. The USD is holding up near its Person’s Pivot at 98.98 overnight.

3/08/22 (Commentary for Tuesday) After Biden announced the sanction of Russia oil imports, the SPX tried to stage a rally, but it failed going into the close. The SPX entered the 3/7/22-3/8/22 3-star geo-cosmic turn window and appears ripe for a “retracement rally” in an ongoing bear market, but it is seeking a hopeful sign out of the Ukraine. After selling some AEM shares too early yesterday, we are back to holding ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities – our favorite PM equity is SBSW, a platinum stock that we added to today. Bitcoin is testing 42000 overnight and that is positive for the SPX early Wednesday. Crude oil tested $130 Sunday night and appears to be forming a “bull flag” pattern. After a strong weekly close above $1975, gold spiked higher to test $2078 on Tuesday before another 3-wave correction on Monday – gold is close to testing its all-time high at $2089. Overall, we hold ~80% cash and 20% in gold/silver/platinum in various forms and believe that the SPX confirmed a bear market after taking out the 1/24 SPX low at 4222 on 2/24. We like holding mainly cash as the macro risks of being 100% long are just too high with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and a more hawkish FOMC targeting inflation. The US economy is highly levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies and trading profits may be difficult this year. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months and (see the Closed End Fund (CEF) bond sector A/D line) and the Fed’s tightening will accelerate this. The US 10-yr bond rate snapped higher to 1.87% as bonds pulled back. The USD is hovering close to its Person’s Pivot at 98.99 overnight Tuesday.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – Taking out SPX 4222 on 2/24 confirmed a bear market in our work. The NDX gave us a 5% turn-around day on 2/24 which has only happened before in bear markets. We are holding about 80% cash in our stock accounts and ~20% in gold/silver/platinum in various forms. The 3/4/22-3/7/22 3-star geo-cosmic turn window could spark a retracement rally.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold tested $2078 Tuesday and began another 3-wave correction. The CPI inflation report early Thursday is the next catalyst.  

• Stocks – The SPX tried to bounce after Biden sanctioned Russian oil imports, but the rally attempt failed and we closed below 4200. The stock market would rally on positive news from the Ukraine. The 3-star geo-cosmic reversal window here for the SPX looks like a low but we need a catalyst.
• Gold – Gold tested $2078 Tuesday and consolidated overnight, but we are hoping for a pullback. The Friday close above $1960 confirmed a substantial rally higher is underway. We still hold about 20% in PM assets.
• Silver – Silver tested $27.50 Tuesday and consolidated overnight.  We favor silver over gold on a pullback.
• Bonds – Bonds pulled back as the US 10-yr rate spiked to 1.87%.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $130 Sunday night and may be forming a “bull flag” pattern.
• Dollar Index – The USD is hovering around its Person’s Pivot at 98.99 Tuesday night.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 3/7-3/8.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - March 7, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX sold off hard today into the 3-star geo-cosmic turn window on 3/07/22 and closed at 4201. In classic bear market action, the SPX opened at the high of the day and then sold off into the close. The SPX continues to trade on Ukrainian war developments and hopes for a favorable diplomatic solution, but US calls for sanctioning Russian oil exports spooked the financial markets today and gave the SPX and DJIA their worst day of the year so far. After making an undercut low, Bitcoin bottomed near the lows of the futures session in the US at 37180 but is bouncing overnight. Crude oil blasted to test $130 Sunday night on US talks of Russian oil sanctions and then corrected in 3-waves. Gold tested $2005 Sunday night as it hit its 3/6-3/7 turn window and declined in 3-waves – we sold some more AEM shares on Monday. We are in 80% cash and have a 20% allocation to gold/silver/platinum in various forms. The USD spiked to 99.418 Sunday evening and also corrected in 3-waves into Monday.

3/07/22 (Commentary for Monday) On bad Ukrainian war news, the lack of positive diplomatic actions, and the threat of US sanctions on Russian oil exports, the SPX fell hard to 4201 and had its single worst day in 2022. The SPX entered the 3/7/22-3/8/22 3-star geo-cosmic turn window and appears ripe for a “retracement rally” in an ongoing bear market. After selling some AEM shares this morning, we are back to holding ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities – our favorite PM equity is SBSW, a platinum stock. Bitcoin tested 37180 late in its session and is trying to bounce overnight – the 3/7-3/8 turn window could give us a bounce. Crude oil tested $130 Sunday evening and then gave us just a 3-wave correction on Monday as US lawmakers try to pass a bill for sanctioning Russian oil exports. After a strong weekly close above $1975, gold spiked higher to test $2005 Sunday evening before a 3-wave correction on Monday – gold made a daily close above $2000. Overall, we hold ~80% cash and 20% in gold/silver/platinum in various forms and believe that the SPX confirmed a bear market after taking out the 1/24 SPX low at 4222 on 2/24. We like holding mainly cash as the macro risks of being 100% long are just too high with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and a more hawkish FOMC targeting inflation. The US economy is highly levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies and trading profits may be difficult this year. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months and (see the Closed End Fund (CEF) bond sector A/D line) and the Fed’s tightening will accelerate this. The US bond spiked to test 160’12 Sunday evening and is correcting sideways. The USD rallied to 99.42 Sunday evening before correcting sideways into Monday.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – Taking out SPX 4222 on 2/24 confirmed a bear market in our work. The NDX gave us a 5% turn-around day on 2/24 which has only happened before in bear markets. We are holding about 80% cash in our stock accounts and ~20% in gold/silver/platinum in various forms. The 3/4/22-3/7/22 3-star geo-cosmic turn window could give the SPX a “retracement bounce”.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold closed the week strong above $1975 and tested $2005 Sunday night before a 3-wave correction.  The 3/7 Mars Ingress date came in as a high for gold – could we see a big pullback?

• Stocks – The SPX opened at its high for the day and then sold off into the close on its worst day in 2022.  We are holding ~80% cash after selling more AEM shares on Monday. We have a 3-star geo-cosmic reversal window on 3/4/22-3/7/22 for the SPX which looks like a low.
• Gold – Gold tested $2005 Sunday night into its 3/7-3/8 turn window and then corrected in 3-waves into Monday. The Friday close above $1960 confirmed a substantial rally higher is underway. We still hold about 20% in PM assets.
• Silver – Silver tested $26.37 Sunday night on the 3/7-3/8 Mars ingress and started a 3-wave correction into Monday.
• Bonds – Bonds spiked to 160’14 Sunday evening and is correcting sideways.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $130 Sunday night and gave us a 3-wave correction into Monday.
• Dollar Index – The USD spiked to 99.42 Sunday night and is correcting sideways.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 3/7-3/8.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - March 6, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX appears to be at an inflection point technically as we enter the 3-star geo-cosmic turn window from 3/04/22-3/07/22. The E-mini is down big Sunday night and implies and a gap-open down below the key SPX 4280 level at the open early Monday. The SPX should continue to trade on Ukrainian war developments and hopes for a favorable diplomatic solution, but the NFP jobs report showed a big jobs gain with no increase in wages on Friday and that got lost in the news from the Ukraine. Bitcoin peaked at 45407 on the 3/2 New Moon but is giving us a bearish 5-waves down on the hourly chart below 38000 – an EW a-b-c bounce to a lower high could start by 3/7-3/8. Crude oil blasted to test $130 Sunday night – a quick test of the all-time high in 2008 at $147 is underway. Gold is testing $2005 Sunday night as we approach the 3/6-3/7 turn window which includes the Mars ingress into Aquarius – we sold some AEM shares on Friday. Instead of pulling back into the NFP jobs report, gold did rally up through it on geo-political news, a rare occurrence. We are in 80% cash and have a 20% allocation to gold/silver/platinum in various forms. The USD spiked to 99.21 Sunday evening on Ukrainian war news.

3/06/22 (Commentary for Sunday) The SPX rally Friday afternoon looked corrective and implied weakness going into Sunday evening. The E-mini futures imply a gap-down open early Monday below the key SPX 4280 level.  We are back to holding ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities – our favorite PM equity is SBSW, a platinum stock. Bitcoin spiked to 45455 on the New Moon Wednesday but is declining in 5-waves down on the hourly chart Sunday night below 38000 – the 3/7-3/8 turn window could give us a bounce. Crude oil is testing $130 Sunday evening and a fast test of the all-time high at $147 looks underway. After a strong weekly close above $1975, gold spiked higher to test $2005 Sunday evening into the 3/7-3/8 turn window. Overall, we hold ~80% cash and 20% in gold/silver/platinum in various forms and believe that the SPX confirmed a bear market after taking out the 1/24 SPX low at 4222 last week. We like holding mainly cash as the macro risks of being 100% long are just too high with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and a more hawkish FOMC targeting inflation. The US economy is highly levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies and trading profits may be difficult this year. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months and (see the Closed End Fund (CEF) bond sector A/D line) and the Fed’s tightening will accelerate this. The US bond spiked to test 160’12 Sunday evening - highs for the week. The USD rallied to 99.12 Sunday evening on a strong sell off in US stock futures.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – Taking out SPX 4222 on 2/24 confirmed a bear market in our work. The NDX gave us a 5% turn-around day on 2/24 which has only happened before in bear markets. We are holding about 80% cash in our stock accounts and ~20% in gold/silver/platinum in various forms. We may have seen a trading low at SPX 4280 this week, the 55-day Fibonacci step out from the Jan 4 high.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold closed the week strong above $1975 and tested $2005 Sunday night. The close above $1960 on Friday confirmed that a major rally is underway.

• Stocks – The E-mini futures are dropping hard Sunday night and predict a gap-down open below the key SPX 4280 level.  We are holding ~80% cash after selling some AEM shares on Friday. We have a 3-star geo-cosmic reversal window on 3/4/22-3/7/22.
• Gold – Gold rallied up through the NFP jobs report on Friday, closed above $1975 and is testing $2005 Sunday night into the 3/7-3/8 turn window. The Friday close above $1960 confirmed a substantial rally higher is underway. We still hold about 20% in PM assets.
• Silver – Silver is testing $26.37 Sunday night as it approaches the 3/7-3/8 Mars ingress which has caused big declines in the PM sector.
• Bonds – Bonds are spiking to 160’14 Sunday evening and taking out last week’s high.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $130 Sunday night as a quick retest of the all-time high at $147 is underway.
• Dollar Index – The USD spiked to 99.12 Sunday night on a global flight to quality.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 3/7-3/8.