All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - February 28, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX gave us a high range correction on Monday and the stock indexes ended mixed. The SPX should continue to trade on Ukrainian war fortunes and hopes for a favorable diplomatic solution but the ADP jobs report on Wednesday and the NFP jobs report on Friday will be important looks at the strength of the US economy. From our latest EW point of view, the E-mini rallied in 5-waves from early Thursday into Friday’s close and is correcting that “impulse wave” into Monday/Tuesday. We may have seen the SPX make a B-Wave test of the 1/24 low at 4222 and we may have started a C-Wave higher to test 4595. Just a 3-wave correction into Monday/Tuesday, could have us nibbling on a few shares of MSFT and AAPL. Bitcoin really rallied Monday as is testing 44000 Monday evening – is this the result of sanctions on the Russian banking system? After just a 3-wave pullback into Friday, crude oil is holding at its Person’s pivot at 96.5 Monday evening which is bullish. Gold is wedging out in its corrective pattern but is holding around $1908 Monday night. If the SPX continues to pull back into Tuesday, we plan to put some of our ~80% cash to work on a trading position in AAPL and MSFT shares. We also have a 20% allocation to gold/silver/platinum in various forms. The USD is testing 97.46 Sunday evening on the escalation of tensions in the Ukraine.

2/28/22 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX only gave us a shallow sideways correction on Monday and may want to hold up into the 3/2 New Moon. We were looking for more SPX correction into Monday but the SPX may be waiting on more news from the Ukraine.  We are holding ~80% cash here and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities. A SPX pullback into Tuesday will get us long a few shares of AAPL and MSFT if we get good setups for a trade into the March 2-3 New Moon. Bitcoin is rallying strong and testing 44000 Monday evening which is bullish for the SPX. After a 3-wave correction into Friday, crude oil is holding up at $96.5 Monday evening after Putin raised his nuclear alert and a very long Russian armored column approaches Kyiv. After dropping $100 into Thursday evening and testing $1880, gold bounced back to $1935 Sunday evening and continues to trace out a wedge into Monday evening. Overall, we hold ~80% cash and 20% in gold/silver/platinum in various forms. A pullback in the SPX into Tuesday will see us adding some AAPL and MSFT shares for a trade higher into the March 2-3 New Moon Window. We will still maintain ~70% cash as the macro risks of being 100% long are just too high with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and a more hawkish FOMC targeting inflation. The US economy is highly levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies and trading profits may be difficult this year. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months and (see the Closed End Fund (CEF) bond sector A/D line) and the Fed’s tightening will accelerate this. The US bond is making a multi-week high at 157’08 Monday evening on the anticipated Russian escalation in the Ukraine. The USD is bouncing to test 96.88 Monday evening, its Person’s Pivot, as Russia moves to escalate around the city of Kyiv.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The NDX gave us a 5% turn-around day on Thursday which only happened before in bear markets. We are holding about 80% cash in our stock accounts and ~20% in gold/silver/platinum in various forms. We are looking for a short-term trading low on Monday/Tuesday, the 55-day Fibonacci step out from the Jan 4 high.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold tested $1975.6 early Thursday and dropped a quick $100 before rebounding to $1935 Sunday evening. A close above $1960 is needed to confirm that a major rally is underway.

• Stocks – The SPX gave us a rather shallow EW a-b-c correction on Monday as strong Russian forces approach Kyiv.  We are holding ~80% cash but plan to add a few AAPL, MSFT and FCX shares on a pullback into Tuesday.
• Gold – Gold tested $1935 early Sunday evening and then started a wedge pattern into late Monday. A close above $1960 is needed to confirm a substantial rally higher is underway. We still hold about 20% in PM assets.
• Silver – Silver bounced Sunday evening on the Russian escalation and Putin’s nuclear sabre rattling – a pullback into the 3/2-3/3 New Moon Timing Window would be ideal.
• Bonds – Bonds tagged 157’08 Monday evening as the Russian main force approaches Kyiv.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil only pulled back in 3-waves into Friday and is holding at its Person’s Pivot at $96.5 Monday evening.
• Dollar Index – The USD tested 97.85 Monday evening on a global flight of capital to the US buck.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 3/2-3/3, the New Moon Timing Window, and 3/4, the NFP jobs report.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - February 27, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX roared back on Friday as impressive Ukrainian resistance prevented the capture of Kyiv. The SPX may continue to trade on Ukrainian war fortunes and hopes for a favorable diplomatic solution. On Sunday evening, the E-mini is down ~100 pts on satellite photos of a 3-mile-long Russian armored convoy heading to Kyiv and Putin rattling his nuclear saber. From our latest EW point of view, the E-mini rallied in 5-waves from early Thursday into Friday’s close and is correcting that “impulse wave” into early Monday. We may have seen the SPX make a B-Wave test of the 1/24 low at 4222 and we may have started a C-Wave higher to test 4595. Just a 3-wave correction into Monday/Tuesday, could have us nibbling on a few shares of MSFT and AAPL. Bitcoin bottomed early Thursday and is correcting an “impulse wave” Sunday night which is bullish for the SPX. Crude oil gave us a 3-wave correction to test $90 Friday but spiked again to test $99 Sunday night in a B-Wave. Gold tested $1976.5 before pulling back in 5-waves to test $1879 Thursday evening and then rebounding to $1935 Sunday night. Gold appeared to top on “peak uncertainty” as the Russians invaded and then started a correction. If the SPX pulls back into Monday/Tuesday, we plan to put some of our ~80% cash to work on a trading position in AAPL and MSFT shares. We also have a 20% allocation to gold/silver/platinum in various forms. The USD is testing 97.46 Sunday evening on the escalation of tensions in the Ukraine.

2/27/22 (Commentary for Sunday) The SPX gave us a EW 5-wave rally into Friday’s close and is correcting into the 55-day Fibonacci step out from Jan 4. Our idea for a “symmetry correction” to SPX 3980 on Monday looks wrong but we are expecting some kind of trading low on Monday/Tuesday.  We are holding ~80% cash here and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities. A SPX pullback into Monday will get us long a few shares of AAPL and MSFT if we get good setups for a trade into the March 2-3 New Moon. Bitcoin is correcting an impulsive rally into the weekend on Sunday evening which is bullish for the SPX. Crude oil spiked to test $99 Sunday evening as Putin raised his nuclear alert and a 3-mile-long Russian armored column approaches Kyiv. After dropping $100 into Thursday evening, gold bounced back to $1935 Sunday evening on the Russian escalation. Overall, we hold ~80% cash and 20% in gold/silver/platinum in various forms. A pullback in the SPX and the NDX into Monday will see us adding some AAPL and MSFT shares for a trade higher the March 2-3 New Moon Window. We will still maintain ~70% cash as the macro risks of being 100% long are just too high with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and a more hawkish FOMC targeting inflation. The US economy is highly levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies and trading profits may be difficult this year. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months and (see the Closed End Fund (CEF) bond sector A/D line) and the Fed’s tightening will accelerate this. The US bonds spiked to a weekly high at 156’28 Sunday evening on the Russian escalation.  The USD rallied to test 97.46 Sunday evening as Russia rattled its nuclear sabre.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – We undercut the key SPX 4222 level Wednesday which confirmed a “bear market” in the SPX. We are holding about 80% cash in our stock accounts and ~20% in gold/silver/platinum in various forms. We are looking for a short-term trading low on Monday, the 55-day Fibonacci step out from the Jan 4 high.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold tested $1975.6 early Thursday and dropped a quick $100 before rebounding to $1935 Sunday evening. A close above $1960 is needed to confirm that a major rally is underway.

• Stocks – Led by AAPL and MSFT, the NDX reversed huge losses early Thursday to close strong on Friday. We are holding ~80% cash but plan to add a few AAPL, MSFT and FCX shares on a pullback into Monday.
• Gold – Gold tested $1976.5 early Thursday on the Russian invasion and then dropped a fast $100 before bouncing to test $1935 on Sunday evening. A close above $1960 is needed to confirm a substantial rally higher is underway. We still hold about 20% in PM assets.
• Silver – Silver bounced Sunday evening on the Russian escalation and Putin’s nuclear sabre rattling – a pullback into the 3/2-3/3 New Moon Timing Window would be ideal.
• Bonds – Bonds tested 156’28 Sunday evening on a global flight to quality.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil retested $100 Sunday evening on Russian escalation.
• Dollar Index – The USD tested 97.46 Sunday evening on a global flight of capital to the US buck.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 3/2-3/3.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - February 24, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX gave us a gap-down open at 4114.65 after the overnight Russian invasion of the Ukraine. In a classic “sell the rumor, buy the news” event, the SPX stormed back to close positive. The NDX especially made a breathtaking reversal with AAPL and MSFT leading the way. Is the SPX low in? Maybe, but today’s rally could be a just a wave 4 of C down from 2/2. Ideally, a SPX “symmetry correction” would take us down near 3980 into Monday, the 55-day Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 high. How the SPX trades early Friday after multiple PCE inflation reports will give us some insight. The Bitcoin rally overnight to 38940 is a bullish omen for tomorrow. Crude oil tested new highs for the year at $100.54 before falling below $92 as the SPX roared back. Gold tested $1976.5 before falling back nearly $100 in 5-waves to test $1880. How the PCE inflation reports break out early Friday will set the short-term trend for the PM sector. If the SPX pulls back into Monday, we plan to put some of our ~80% cash to work for a rally into March. We also have a 20% allocation to gold/silver/platinum in various forms. The USD tested  97.74 Thursday as a flight to quality on the Ukrainian invasion.

2/24/22 (Commentary for Thursday) After the SPX gap-down open, the SPX made an impressive rally to close the day positive, but the NDX was the real star. Our price and time target for the SPX remains ~3980, a “symmetry correction” by the 55-day Fibonacci step out on Monday. How the SPX responds to the various PCE inflation reports early Friday will set the tone. We are holding ~80% cash here and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities. Making a SPX pullback into Monday will get us long AAPL, MSFT and FCX if we get good setups for a trade into March. Bitcoin is testing 38850 overnight and staying above its Person’s pivot which is a bullish omen for stocks early Friday. Crude oil spiked to test our short-term target of $100 early Thursday before rolling over below $92 – oil stocks like XOM and CVX closed way below opening highs. Gold tested $1976.5 early Thursday before staging a 5-wave $100 drop – how we respond to several PCE inflation reports early Friday will set the short-term trend. Overall, we hold ~80% cash and 20% in gold/silver/platinum in various forms. A pullback in the SPX and the NDX into Monday will see us adding some AAPL, MSFT and FCX shares for a trade into March. We will still retain > 50% cash as the macro risks of being 100% long are just too high with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and a more hawkish FOMC targeting inflation. The US economy is highly levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies and trading profits may be difficult this year. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months and (see the Closed End Fund (CEF) bond sector A/D line) and the Fed’s tightening will accelerate this. The US bonds tested 156’19 early Thursday as the Russians began a large-scale invasion of the Ukraine. The USD rallied to test 97.75 Thursday on a global flight to quality.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – We undercut the key SPX 4222 level Wednesday which confirmed a “bear market” in the SPX. We are holding about 80% cash in our stock accounts and ~20% in gold/silver/platinum in various forms. We have a SPX “symmetry target” of ~3980 by Monday, the 55-day Fibonacci step out from the Jan 4 high.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold tested $1975.6 early Thursday but dropped a $100. A close above $1960 is needed to confirm that a major rally is underway.

• Stocks – The SPX gave us a gap-down open to 4114.65 early Thursday before staging an impressive rebound to close positive. Led by AAPL and MSFT, the NDX reversed huge losses to score a big close. We are holding ~80% cash but plan to add some AAPL, MSFT and FCX shares on a pullback into Monday.
• Gold – Gold tested $1976.5 early Thursday after the Russian invasion and then dropped $100 – gold made a key reversal day – how we trade after the early Friday PCE reports will set the tone. A close above $1960 is needed to confirm a substantial rally higher is underway. We still hold about 20% in PM assets.
• Silver – The SLV traded huge volume on a key reversal day today - how we trade after the PCE inflation reports early Friday will set the tone.
• Bonds – Bonds tested 156’19 early Thursday on a global flight to quality.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil tested our $100 target early Thursday but then fell below $92 – XOM and CVX made their high of the day near the open.
• Dollar Index – The USD tested 97.75 Thursday on a global flight of capital to the US buck.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 2/21-2/23.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - February 23, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX bounced early but then succumbed to a selloff into the close that undercut the 1/24 low at 4222. To us, that implies a “trapdoor” will open that could send the SPX quickly down to test SPX 4000 by the 55-day Fibonacci step out on Monday, 2/28. The SPX is in a “bear market” and the Russian invasion of greater Ukraine Wednesday evening is taking the E-mini down 90 points overnight. Gold is shooting up to test $1950 as Bitcoin declines to 34500, in sympathy with the US stock futures. Crude oil is testing new highs for the year at $96– a target of $100 is still possible if we see a full invasion of greater Ukraine by early Thursday. Having 10%-20% invested in physical gold/silver/platinum will be wise in 2022. We remain in ~80% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, new Covid variant, etc.) and also have a 20% allocation to gold/silver/platinum in various forms. The USD is rallying to 96.75 Wednesday evening as a flight to quality on the Ukrainian invasion.

2/23/22 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX bounced early Wednesday but reversed course to undercut the key 4222 level near the close. Despite record short statistics, the SPX is in a bear market and the undercut of 4222 today could lead to a “trapdoor move” down in the SPX on Thursday to test SPX 4000. Taking out SPX 4222 today confirms a “bear market” started in the SPX on 1/4/22.  We are holding ~80% cash here and own ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities. Taking out SPX 4222 suggests a quick move down to test SPX 4000 by 2/28 on the 55-day Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 high. Bitcoin is shadowing stock futures down Wednesday night and tested 34500. Crude oil spiked to test $96 Wednesday evening and a test of $100 is possible if a full-scale invasion of the Ukraine proceeds early Thursday. Gold is testing $1951 overnight after bullishly holding up early Wednesday. Overall, we hold ~80% cash and 20% in gold/silver/platinum in various forms as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too high with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and a more hawkish FOMC targeting inflation. The US economy is highly levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies and trading profits may be difficult this year. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months and (see the Closed End Fund (CEF) bond sector A/D line) and the Fed’s tightening will accelerate this. The US bonds are testing 156’02 Wednesday evening as the Russians begin a large-scale invasion of the Ukraine. The USD is rallying to 96.75 Wednesday night on a global flight to quality.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – We undercut the key SPX 4222 level Wednesday which confirmed a “bear market” in the SPX. We are holding about 80% cash in our stock accounts and ~20% in gold/silver/platinum in various forms.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – After testing $1920 on Monday, gold only pulled back to $1892 before rebounding to test $1951 Wednesday evening. A close above $1960 will confirm that a major rally is underway.

• Stocks – The SPX undercut 4222 on Wednesday and opens a trapdoor move down to test SPX 4000 by Monday, 2/28. The E-mini is down 90 points overnight as Russian is mounting a full-scale invasion of the Ukraine. We are holding ~80% cash and a 20% holding in gold/silver/platinum in various forms.
• Gold – Gold is testing $1951 overnight Wednesday on the full-scale attack on the Ukraine. A close above $1960 on Thursday would be very bullish. We are holding some GLD, AEM and GOLD shares.
• Silver – Silver closed above its 200-dma today and looks like it is starting a big run – silver is testing $25 on Wednesday night.
• Bonds – Bonds is testing 156’02 Wednesday night on a global flight to quality.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $96 Wednesday evening – a test of $100 is possible later this week on a full Russian invasion.
• Dollar Index – The USD is testing 96.75 Wednesday night on a global flight of capital to the US buck.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 2/21-2/23.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - February 22, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The emotional defiance of Putin in annexing the Donbas provinces in the eastern Ukraine and the insertion of “Russian peacekeepers” put tremendous pressure on the SPX early Tuesday. The SPX took out its 1/28 low at 4292 and that eliminated the bullish EW 1-2, i-ii pattern that we considered as a possibility. The SPX may have made the low for the week today, but rally potential is now limited back to 4600 or so going into the weekend. However, the Option Premium Ratio rallied from 2.17 to 2.49 on Tuesday and that suggests that the 1/24 low at SPX 4222 could still be tested before a sustainable rebound tomorrow.  With Secretary Blinken heading to Russia for talks with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov next this week, the chances of a last-minute diplomatic reprieve are still viable but lessoned with the intensity of Putin’s TV performance on Monday in our eyes. Bitcoin tested its S1 pivot support at 36100 overnight Sunday and is struggling to hold above Person’s Pivot on Tuesday night at 37931. Crude oil spiked to $95 overnight before rolling over – a target of $100 is still possible if we see a full invasion of greater Ukraine later this week. Gold tested key horizontal resistance at $1918 on Monday and pulled back in 3-waves to $1892 before a bounce back to $1907 on Tuesday – a symmetry correction could take us back to $1882. Having 10%-20% invested in physical gold/silver/platinum will be wise in 2022. We remain in >50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, new Covid variant, etc.) and also like a 10% allocation to gold/silver/platinum. The USD continues to oscillate around 96 and continues to defy bearish prognosticators.

2/22/22 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX tested 4267 and bounced after Biden’s speech but we are not sure that it made a trading low. Wednesday is the 21-day Fibonacci step out from the 2/2 high and could give us a turn. The rally in the Option Premium Ratio from 2.17 to 2.49 shows that the bears remained convicted going into today’s close and could still test SPX 4222 tomorrow. Since we took out SPX 4292 to the downside today that invalidates the bullish EW 1-2, i-ii count and the SPX volume today did not look capitulative. We prefer to hold >50% cash here and we like the idea of owning 10% physical gold/silver/platinum. However, the break below E-mini 4358 did have us stopping out of our SPY shares on Friday. Taking out SPX 4292 today does negate our view that a “final blow off” started on 1/24 and the most that we expect is a retracement rally back to 4600 even if we manage to undercut the 1/24 low at 4222 tomorrow. Bitcoin tested 36340 Monday night and bounced into Tuesday evening where it is fighting to hold above its Person’s Pivot at 37920 which is bullish for tomorrow. Crude oil spiked back to test $95 on Monday before rolling over – a rally to test $100 is still possible later this week on a full invasion of the Ukraine. Gold tested key resistance at $1918 and is pulling back correctively – a symmetry correction could take us back to $1882. Overall, we still hold ~60% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too high with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and a more hawkish FOMC targeting inflation. The US economy is highly levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies and trading profits may be difficult this year. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months and (see the Closed End Fund (CEF) bond sector A/D line) and the Fed’s tightening will accelerate this. The US bonds tested 154’14 on Monday before a pullback into Tuesday that took the 10-yr US rate sank to 1.95%. The USD continues to oscillate around 96 but interest-rate differentials are building with Europe and Japan.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – We stopped out of our SPY shares as the E-mini slipped below 4358 on Friday but did add to GLD. We are holding about 60% cash in our stock accounts and a few shares of AEM, and GOLD for a possible run into March.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold got a risk-off bid last week from war rumors and managed to test $1918 on Monday before correcting. Gold has broken a pattern of declining highs that haunted this market in 2021 and suggests that an important rally has started.

• Stocks – The E-mini fell below 4358 and that stopped us out of our SPY shares on Friday. Today, the SPX took out 4292 which NEGATED our view that 1/24 was the start of a “Final Melt Up”. The SPX could still test the 1/24 low at 4222 tomorrow before a retracement to 4600 or so.  We prefer to hold >60% cash, a 10% stake in physical gold/silver/platinum and a few gold shares.
• Gold – Gold tested $1918 on Monday before a correction into Tuesday – a symmetry correction could take us to $1882. A close above key horizontal resistance at $1920 is the next hurdle. However, a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine crisis could take some “risk off” premium out of gold. We are holding some GLD, AEM and GOLD shares.
• Silver – Silver closed last week just below $24 but the silver stocks are perking up. A close above its 200-dma could start a major break out in silver.
• Bonds – Bonds rallied to 154’14 on Monday before correcting into Tuesday with gold.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $95 early Tuesday on Ukrainian tensions – a test of $100 is still possible later this week on a full Russian invasion.
• Dollar Index – The USD continues to oscillate around 96.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 2/21-2/23.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - February 20, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The media blitz of a Russian invasion of the Ukraine intensified over the weekend and with the close of the Bejing Winter Olympics Sunday night, global markets are concerned about an invasion early Monday. On Friday, the E-mini did break below 4358 which makes us very cautious, and the Option Premium Ratio did spike from 1.63 to 2.17 which showed an increase of bearish sentiment going into the weekend.  With Secretary Blinken heading to Russia for talks with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov next this week (only if the invasion has not started), the chances of a last-minute diplomatic reprieve are still viable. Friday’s weak close on the SPX, does give the hourly chart the appearance of an EW a-b-c-d-e triangle which could resolve upward – how the SPX trades this week will clue us in for the bigger picture into March. Bitcoin tested 39485 Friday and is due some kind of bounce into Sunday night. We got a 5-day CBOE put/call ratio close to that seen on the 1/24 low. Crude oil declined to test $87.46 before bouncing into the close – a target of $100 is possible if we see an invasion on Monday but we think that the major oil stocks are too extended for purchase here. Gold gave us a weekly close above $1900 as evidence is building that the PM sector has started a major rally. Having 10%-20% invested in physical gold/silver/platinum will be wise in 2022. We remain in >50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, new Covid variant, etc.) and also like a 10% allocation to gold/silver/platinum. The USD continues to oscillate around 96 and continues to defy bearish prognosticators.

2/20/22 (Commentary for Sunday) Last minute diplomacy from the Ukraine and the US may delay an invasion on Monday which is a market holiday in the US. There is firm conviction in market bulls and bears as we enter this week. The Option Premium Ratio spiked higher on Friday to 2.17 shows strong bullish conviction and calls for a market crash on Monday/Tuesday are common on Twitter. Stock market bulls see a huge, short interest in the SPX and believe that last-minute diplomacy could delay an actual invasion early this week. A break below E-mini 4358 did turn us cautious on Friday but the daily SPX chart still has a possible EW a-b-c-d-e triangle being finished on Friday that could be a Wave 2. A break below the 1/28 low at SPX 4292, however, would be decidedly bearish for us. We prefer to hold >50% cash here and we like the idea of owning 10% physical gold/silver/platinum. However, the break below E-mini 4358 did have us stopping out of our SPY shares on Friday. Our intermediate-term stock market bias is that the SPX started a “Final Blow Off” on 1/24, but how we trade into next week could change that view. Bitcoin sold off to 39478 on Friday and may be due a bounce into Sunday night. Crude oil may be rolling over here after the 2/16 Full Moon but geo-political tensions could keep it from declining very far. Last week, the BPENER (bullish percent energy stocks) hit 100% bullish – this looks too toppy to us for oil stocks in the short-term. Large cap gold stocks (GOLD, NEM, AEM, GFI, etc.) are leading gold higher this week and that could be signaling a major move in the PM sector – we held GOLD, AEM and NEM shares into the weekend and could see volatility in the PM sector on Sunday night and Monday. Overall, we still hold ~60% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too high with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and a more hawkish FOMC targeting inflation. The US economy is highly levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies and trading profits may be difficult this year. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months and (see the Closed End Fund (CEF) bond sector A/D line) and the Fed’s tightening will accelerate this. The US bonds got a risk-off bid today and the 10-yr US rate sank to 1.974%. The USD continues to oscillate around 96 but interest-rate differentials are building with Europe and Japan.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – We stopped out of our SPY shares as the E-mini slipped below 4358 on Friday but did add to GLD. We are holding about 60% cash in our stock accounts and a few shares of AEM, NEM and GOLD for a possible run into March.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold got a risk-off bid last week from war rumors and managed to close above $1900. Gold has broken a pattern of declining highs that haunted this market in 2021 and suggests that an important rally has started.

• Stocks – The E-mini fell below 4358 and that stopped us out of our SPY shares. Bears loaded up on puts and are looking for a possible market crash early this week on a Russian invasion.  We prefer to hold >50% cash, a 10% stake in physical gold/silver/platinum and a few gold shares.
• Gold – Led by the big-cap gold stocks, gold made a weekly close $1900 and appears to be starting a big run – a close above $1920 is the next hurdle. However, a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine crisis could take some “risk off” premium out of gold. We are holding some GLD, NEM, AEM and GOLD shares.
• Silver – Silver closed last week just below $24 but the silver stocks are perking up.
• Bonds – Bonds continued their risk-off rally on Friday as we worked through Friday’s monthly expiration and possible Russian invasion.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil tested its S2 pivot support at $87.62 on Friday and bounced - oil stocks are too toppy to buy in the short-term.
• Dollar Index – The USD continues to oscillate around 96.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 2/21-2/22.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - February 17, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: With rumors of de-escalation in the Ukraine proven to be false, the SPX took a hit today – our prediction for a SPX rally day turned out to be wrong. The E-mini did hold above 4358 which is important – a break below would turn our EW wave count to “crash-wave bearish”. With Secretary Blinken heading to Russia for talks with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov next week, the SPX should get some kind of relief rally and the E-mini futures are bouncing overnight. After missing on today’s market call, our short-term bias, whether you are an Elliott Wave bull or bear here, is for the SPX to rally into Feb 23 – the pattern of this rally will clue us in for the bigger picture into March. Bitcoin’s overnight decline last night was a bad omen for the SPX decline today where we got a 5-day CBOE put/call ratio close to that seen on the 1/24 low. Crude oil continued weaker today but gold continued to rally on the risk-off trade and managed to close above $1900 – evidence is building that the PM sector has started a major rally. Having 10%-20% invested in physical gold/silver/platinum will be wise in 2022. We remain in >50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, new Covid variant, etc.) but we are now holding some SPY, F and LABU shares for a run into March. The USD continues to oscillate around 96 and continues to defy bearish prognosticators.

2/17/22 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX has gotten several end-of-day rallies in the last two weeks but not today. Whether you read the daily SPX Elliott Wave structure as bullish or bearish, we are expecting a rally into next week especially with the news that Secretary of State Blinken is traveling to Russia to meet with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov – this should put off the “so-called invasion” into late next week. Our short-term market bias is BULLISH here and the E-mini is rallying overnight. However, a break below E-mini 4358 would turn us short-term bearish and have us selling our SPY shares. Our intermediate-term stock market bias is that the SPX started a “Final Blow Off” on 1/24 and that we could start a “Secular Bear Market” sometime in the March-May window, but how we trade into next week could change that view. Bitcoin sold off pre-market today and that was a bad open for the SPX – hopefully we get a rally early Friday. Crude oil may be rolling over here after the 2/16 Full Moon but geo-political tensions could keep it from declining very far. Last week, the BPENER (bullish percent energy stocks) hit 100% bullish – this looks a little toppy to us for oil stocks in the short-term. Large cap gold stocks (GOLD, NEM, AEM, GFI, etc.) are leading gold higher this week and that could be signaling a major move in the PM sector – we held GOLD and NEM shares today. Overall, we still hold ~60% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too high with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and a more hawkish FOMC targeting inflation. The US economy is highly levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies and trading profits may be difficult this year. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months and (see the Closed End Fund (CEF) bond sector A/D line) and the Fed’s tightening will accelerate this. The US bonds got a risk-off bid today and the 10-yr US rate sank to 1.974%. The USD continues to oscillate around 96 but interest-rate differentials are building with Europe and Japan.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – We added a few SPY shares when the SPX tested the .618 retracement of the 1/24-2/2 rally at SPX 4365 Monday but need to see the SPX prove itself by closing over 4500 by early next week. We are holding about 60% cash in our stock accounts but are holding a few shares in SPY, LABU and F this week for a run into March.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold got a risk-off bid today from war rumors and managed to close above $1900. Gold has broken a pattern of declining highs that haunted this market in 2021 and suggests that an important rally has started.

• Stocks – Friday is monthly option expiration before a Monday market holiday and could be volatile – we are expecting a SPX bounce after today’s drubbing. If the E-mini breaks below 4358, we will turn short-term bearish and sell our SPY shares.
• Gold – Led by the big-cap gold stocks, gold closed above $1900 and appears to be starting a big run – a close above $1920 is the next hurdle. We are holding NEM and GOLD shares.
• Silver – Silver needs to break above $24 catch up with gold.
• Bonds – Bonds gave us a risk-off rally today that could extend higher as we go into Friday’s monthly expiration.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil continued its correction and tested $89 - a little toppy for oil stocks in the short term.
• Dollar Index – The USD continues to oscillate around 96.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 2/15-2/16 which includes the Full Moon.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - February 16, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The markets are very choppy here and full of traders of strong convictions. Trending inflation, a tightening Fed policy, and news from the Ukraine are driving stocks and some prominent analysts are claiming that we are in a “crash wave” from Jan 4 and some prominent analysts are claiming that we are about to have a huge rally back to test the highs. What’s a trader/investor to do here. Our short-term bias, whether you are an Elliott Wave bull or bear here, is for the SPX to rally into Feb 22 – the pattern of this rally will clue us in for the intermediate term into March. On Monday, we added some SPY shares near the SPX 4365 low with the idea of holding into next week. Bitcoin continues to hold up above 43000 and that is hopeful for the SPX bulls tomorrow. Both crude oil and gold ramped up into the 2/15-2/16 Full Moon Timing Window before seeing a correction – gold took out its 11/8 high this week and changed its pattern of lower highs – gold may have started a major mov higher and needs to be watched. We remain in >50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, new Covid variant, etc.) but we are now holding some SPY, F and LABU shares for a run into March. The USD continues to oscillate around 96 which appears to be its happy place.

2/16/22 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX declined into the FOMC minutes and then staged a rally into the close. Whether you read the daily SPX Elliott Wave structure as bullish or bearish, we are expecting a rally into 2/23. Our short-term market bias is BULLISH here and more good news from the Ukraine overnight could give us a “gap up” in the SPX early Thursday. The SPY bears did well on 2/10-2/11 by shorting the SPY, but we warn against continuing to hold shorts here against the SPY or QQQ and prefer to hold cash into next week. Our market bias is that the SPX started a “Final Blow Off” on 1/24 and that we could start a “Secular Bear Market” sometime in the March-May window but how we trade into next week could change that view. Bitcoin is holding above 43000 Wednesday night and that is encouraging to SPX bulls for early Thursday. Crude oil may be rolling over here after the Full Moon but geo-political tensions could keep it from declining very far. Last week, the BPENER (bullish percent energy stocks) hit 100% bullish – this looks a little toppy to us for oil stocks in the short-term. Gold stocks are leading gold higher and that could be starting a big move for the PM sector. Overall, we still hold ~60% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too high with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and a more hawkish FOMC targeting inflation. The US economy is highly levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies and trading profits may be difficult this year. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months and (see the Closed End Fund (CEF) bond sector A/D line) and the Fed’s tightening will accelerate this. The 10-yr US rate made new highs today near 2.066% on the hot Import Price number. The USD continues to oscillate around 96.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – We added a few SPY shares when the SPX tested the .618 retracement of the 1/24-2/2 rally at SPX 4365 Monday but need to see the SPX prove itself by closing over 4500 by Thursday. We are holding about 60% cash in our stock accounts but are holding a few shares in SPY, LABU, and F this week for a run into March.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold took out the 11/8 high at $1879 Monday evening – THIS ENDS A PATTERN OF DECLINING HIGHS and suggests that an important rally has started. Gold needs to close above $1900/then $1920 to really get going.

• Stocks – A bullish or bearish EW count here allows for a SPX rally from Thursday into 2/23 – a gap-up open on Thursday would be a good start.
• Gold – Gold made a 3-month high at $1882 this week and ended a period of declining highs - we are holding NEM and GOLD shares.
• Silver – Silver needs to break above $24 to look bullish.
• Bonds – Bonds gave us 5-waves down to 150’12 and then started to rally – we may have seen a short-term low.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil ramped up to test $96 into the Full Moon but pulled back late in the day - a little toppy for oil stocks in the short term.
• Dollar Index – The USD continues to oscillate around 96.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 2/15-2/16 which includes the Full Moon.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - February 15, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX ended a 3-wave correction from the 2/9 high at 4365 and reversed higher to 4471 on Tuesday’s close – we are cautiously bullish for higher highs into next week. Reports of actual Russian troop withdrawals are being questioned and more satellite evidence of Russian pullbacks will be bullish for the SPX early Wednesday. The stock market has digested a 0.50% Fed rate hike in March and the threat of a Russian invasion and we could see a relief rally tomorrow – smart money has been accumulating the SPX for the last week. The EW count from the 1/24 SPX low can still be counted as a very bullish 1-2, i-ii pattern but at the very least it is now 3-waves up and 3-waves down, and the next move should be a 5-wave rally affair. The PPI inflation report came in very hot and the 10-yr US rate ran back up to test 2.06% but stocks held up on the encouraging de-escalation reports from the Ukraine. On Monday, we added some SPY shares near the SPX 4365 low with the idea of holding into next week. Bitcoin rallied to test its R1 pivot resistance at 44706 and then pulled back to test its Person’s Pivot at 43695. Crude oil is pulling back in 5-waves into tomorrow’s New Moon – a spike to $100 is possible with this lunar cycle energy if a Russian attack materializes. Even so, the BPENER (bullish percent for energy stocks) is at 100% - pretty toppy here in the short term and WE WOULD BE A SELLER OF OIL STOCKS. We remain in >50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, new Covid variant, etc.) but we are now holding some SPY, F and LABU shares for a run into March. Gold also declined into the 2/15-2/16 Full Moon Timing Window – gold rallied as a risk-off play this week but may be starting a big rally. The USD continues to oscillate around 96 which appears to be its happy place.

2/15/22 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX gapped up Tuesday morning on scattered reports of Russian de-escalation and overcame a very hot PPI report. Our short-term market bias is BULLISH here and more good news from the Ukraine could start a substantial relief rally early Wednesday which also has the Fed minutes at 2:00 PM EDT. The bulls are hoping for “no invasion” into Wednesday morning and a bullish market reaction to the FOMC minutes. The bears are hoping for more hawkish comments on interest rate policy from the FOMC. Our short-term market bias is BULLISH as the SPX closed at the high of the day at 4471. The SPY bears did well on Thursday/Friday by shorting the SPY, but we warn against continuing to hold shorts here against the SPY or QQQ and prefer to hold cash. We got a 3-start critical reversal day in the SPX on 2/3 and that gave us a .618 retracement of the SPX rally from 1/24 to 2/2 going into Monday’s low at 4365. Our market bias is that the SPX started a “Final Blow Off” on 1/24 and that we could start a “Secular Bear Market” sometime in the March-May window. Bitcoin is pulling back to test its Person’s Pivot at 43706 Tuesday night which could give the SPX a weak open on Wednesday. Crude oil pulled back in 5-waves into the 2/15-2/16 Full Moon Timing Window and could test $100 if the Ukraine situation gets hot. Last week, the BPENER hit 100% bullish – this looks a little toppy to us for oil stocks in the short-term. Gold pulled back into the 2/15-2/16 Full Moon Timing Window but looks bullish – gold eclipsed the 11/8 high at $1881 and could be starting a big move higher. Overall, we still hold ~60% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too high with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and a more hawkish FOMC targeting inflation. The US economy is highly levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies and trading profits may be difficult this year. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months and (see the Closed End Fund (CEF) bond sector A/D line). The 10-yr US rate tested highs today near 2.06% on the hot PPI number. The USD tested its Person’s Pivot at 96.07 Tuesday night.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – We added a few SPY shares when the SPX tested the .618 retracement of the 1/24-2/2 rally at SPX 4365 Monday but need to see the SPX prove itself by closing over 4500 by Wednesday’s Full Moon. We are holding about 60% cash in our stock accounts but are holding a few shares in SPY, LABU, and F this week for a run into March.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold took out the 11/8 high at $1879 Monday evening – it is now pulling back into the 2/16 Full Moon on a risk-off trade focused on the fears of an imminent Ukrainian invasion. Gold may have started a major rally.

• Stocks – The SPX finished an EW a-b-c correction from 2/2 that retraced .618 of the rally from 1/24 to 2/2 and tagged SPX 4365 – we need to close above SPX 4500 by Wednesday to reconfirm the bullish trend.
• Gold – Gold made a 3-month high at $1882 before pulling back into the 2/15-2/16 Full Moon Timing Window - we are holding NEM and GOLD shares.
• Silver – Silver tested $24 Monday evening before pulling back into the 2/15-2/16 Full Moon Timing Window.
• Bonds – Bonds got hit by a hot PPI number and the 10-yr US rate tested 2.06%.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil declined in 5-waves into the 2/15-2/16 Full Moon Timing Window - the BPENER (bullish percent energy stocks) is still at 100% - a little toppy for oil stocks in the short term.
• Dollar Index – The USD tested its Person’s Pivot at 96.07 Tuesday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 2/15-2/16 which includes the Full Moon.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - February 14, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX may have ended a 3-wave correction from the 2/9 high at 4365. The threat of a Russian invasion of the Ukraine still hangs over the market’s head and the Fed President Bullard not only DID NOT WALK BACK his hawkish comment about raising the Fed Funds rate 0.50% at the March meeting, but he also RE-EMPHASIZED the reasoning behind it. Despite all of this, the SPX still managed to close above 4400. The EW count from the 1/24 SPX low is difficult to count – it is now 3-waves up and 3-waves down, and the next move could be a 5-wave rally affair. The PPI inflation report early Tuesday is key here, and if the market gets a “weaker-than-expected” inflation print of some kind, the SPX could get a big “relief rally”. If the bearish count is still working, we could see the SPX close below 4400 on Tuesday. If we get a “relief rally” from the PPI report we could get a “gap-up” open early Tuesday and a sharp “short-covering” rally that could test SPX 4500 by Tuesday’s close.  Be agile, cash is still our largest position (>60%) and our best asset in this volatile market. Today we added some SPY shares near the SPX 4365 low with the idea of holding into next week. Bitcoin is rallying Monday night and testing its R2 resistance pivot at 43660 – this is foreshadowing SPX strength for tomorrow. Crude oil continued to surge as we approach the 12/16 Full Moon – a spike to $100 is possible with this lunar cycle energy. Even so, the BPENER (bullish percent for energy stocks) is at 100% - pretty toppy here in the short term and WE WOULD BE A SELLER OF OIL STOCKS. We remain in >50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, new Covid variant, etc.) but we are now holding some SPY, FCX and LABU shares for a run into March. Gold is also spiking into the 2/16 Full Moon and took out the 11/8 high at $1879 – gold is rallying as a risk-off play here and may be starting something big. The USD tested its R2 pivot at 96.4 and is pulling back overnight to its Person’s Pivot at 96.21.

2/14/22 (Commentary for Monday) The Russians did not invade the Ukraine early Monday and this by itself could have rallied the SPX but for Fed President Bullard who re-iterated his hawkish comments about raising the Fed funds rate by 0.50% at the March Fed meeting. Still, rumors of an imminent Russian invasion are hanging over the market as it gets the PPI inflation report early Tuesday. A “weaker-than-expected” PPI inflation reading could give us a “gap-up” open on the SPX. The bulls are hoping for “no invasion” into Tuesday morning and a bullish market reaction to the PPI report – but another strong inflation print could rattle the markets. The bears hope for a close below SPX 4400 by Tuesday’s close. The intra-day SPX move Friday below 4401 turned us cautious. Our short-term market bias is CAUTIOUS until the SPX gets above 4500 by the 2/15-2/16 Full Moon Timing Window – a close below 4400 by Tuesday, however, would turn us bearish. The SPY bears did well on Thursday/Friday by shorting the SPY, but we warn against continuing to hold shorts here against the SPY or QQQ and prefer to hold cash. We got a 3-start critical reversal day in the SPX on 2/3 and that gave us a .618 retracement of the SPX rally from 1/24 to 2/2 going into Monday’s low at 4365. Our market bias is that the SPX started a “Final Blow Off” on 1/24 and that we could start a “Secular Bear Market” sometime in the March-May window. Bitcoin is rallying to test its R2 pivot resistance at 43560 Monday night which is bullish for stocks early Tuesday. Crude oil is on a run up into the 2/15-2/16 Full Moon Timing Window and could test $100. Last week, the BPENER hit 100% bullish – this looks a little toppy to us for oil stocks in the short-term. Gold is also ramping up into the 2/16 Full Moon and exceeded the 11/8  high at $1879 – gold could be starting a big move higher. Overall, we still hold ~60% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too high with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and a more hawkish FOMC targeting inflation. The US economy is highly levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies and trading profits may be difficult this year. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months and (see the Closed End Fund (CEF) bond sector A/D line). The 10-yr US rate pulled back correctively on Monday as bonds bounced on Ukrainian invasion rumors. The USD is testing its Person’s Pivot at 96.21 Monday night.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – We added a few SPY shares when the SPX tested the .618 retracement of the 1/24-2/2 rally at SPX 4365 Monday but need to see the SPX prove itself by closing over 4500 by Wednesday’s Full Moon. We are holding about 50% cash in our stock accounts but are holding a few shares in SPY, FCX, LABU, and F this week for a run into March.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold took out the 11/8 high at $1879 Monday evening – it is ramping into the 2/16 Full Moon on a risk-off trade focused on the fears of an imminent Ukrainian invasion. Gold may have started a major rally.

• Stocks – The SPX may have finished an EW a-b-c correction from 2/2 that retraced .618 of the rally from 1/24 to 2/2 at SPX 4365 – we need to close above SPX 4500 by Wednesday to reconfirm the bullish trend.
• Gold – Gold is testing $1882 late Monday on a rumor of an imminent Ukrainian invasion - we could see a ramp into the 2/16 Full Moon.
• Silver – Silver is testing $24 Monday evening.
• Bonds – Bonds are trying to bounce correctively.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil blasted to test $95.82 on Monday as it ramps up into the 2/16 Full Moon - the BPENER (bullish percent energy stocks) is still at 100% - a little toppy for oil stocks in the short term.
• Dollar Index – The USD is testing 96.20 late Monday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 2/14-2/15.