All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 15, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: A weak retail sales report led to early weakness in the SPX on Wednesday, but a strong presentation by Chairman Powell led the SPX back into the close.  Our bias that a C-Wave down started on Monday and could continue down after the FOMC minutes could be falsified by early strength on Thursday. The 12/18-12/20 Full Moon Timing Window/Venus retrograde turn window could either bottom the C-Wave that started on Monday or put in a final divergent high in the SPX – how we trade Thursday will tell us. On Saturday, we saw an impressive alignment of Uranus, the Moon, Jupiter, Saturn, Neptune and Venus and this could signal that a major top is at hand. Chairman Powell has raised inflation to his number one priority and today he announced a doubling of the taper and guided the market to three rate hikes in 2022. We remain in 50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, new Covid variant, etc.) and now a more aggressive Fed that wants to rein in inflation. Crude oil may still be rolling over and that is market bearish. After testing 45700 on Monday, Bitcoin responded to some supportive words from Powell on digital currencies and bounced to test 50000. Gold dropped to $1753 post-FOMC minutes but managed to climb back to $1784 Wednesday evening – a 20-day cycle low was made. The USD spiked to 96.9 after the Fed minutes but is pulling back sharply overnight.

12/15/21 (Commentary for Wednesday) A surprisingly small retail sales report gave the SPX a weak open Wednesday but the SPX responded strongly to the FOMC minutes and Powell’s smooth presentation gave the market a rally into the close. The stock market literally “sold the rumor but bought the news” today but the stock market action could be labelled just a “wave 2 of C down”. Our bias is that the 12/18-12/20 turn window could be a low, but it could also be a divergent high for the SPX. The SPX appears to be sub-dividing down in a C-Wave with a symmetry target below the 12/1 low at 4495 by the 12/18-12/20 turn window which could be the start of a X-mas rally. The big range days over the last two weeks in the NDX and SPX are indicative of a topping bull market – the “planetary alignment that clustered on both sides of the Moon” into Saturday argues that an important top was made on 12/10. Chairman Powell doubled the taper and put the market on notice for three rate hikes in 2022. Historically, when the Fed has drained liquidity from the financial markets via cuts in bond purchases, big moves down have started in the stock market since 2008. Bitcoin bounced into the close from supportive words for digital currencies by Powell – however, Bitcoin is still trading below 50000 Wednesday night – this is a bearish sign for the stock market. The trendlines from the Covid low on 3/23 turned back the last speculative highs in TSLA, Bitcoin, and the IWM near the 11/4 New Moon and continue to remain as stiff resistance. We still hold 50% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too great with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and a now more aggressive Fed targeting inflation. Another scary signal came from recent news that the down payments of 20% of first home buyers came from Bitcoin profits – the US economy is highly-levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies. Gold dropped hard to $1753 after the FOMC minutes but rallied back to $1784 overnight after a 20-day cycle low bottomed. Crude oil rolled over on Monday and still looks short-term bearish. Bonds made lows for the week after the FOMC minutes and the 10-yr rate bounced to 1.485%. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months and the Fed quickened the reduction of financial liquidity from the US stock market at this week’s Fed meeting despite slowing global growth concerns. The USD spiked to 96.90 before pulling back overnight.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – Friday, the SPX made a B-Wave test of the 11/22 high at 4740. On Monday, the SPX started a C-Wave down which continued to sub-divide down on Tuesday – we may see a symmetry correction which undercuts the 12/1 low at 4495 by 12/20. The Russell 2000 and the NYSE Composite have already given us an EW 5-wave decline on the daily charts into 12/1 which is a bear market signal.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold dropped to $1753 after the Fed minutes and bottomed a 20-day cycle low – we could see a strong bounce above $1800 into late December.

• Stocks – Did the SPX bounce in just a Wave 2 of C correction or did we start a X-mas rally today?  How we trade on Thursday will enlighten us.  
• Gold – Gold dropped to $1753 and bottomed its 20-day cycle low – we’re looking for a strong bounce into late December.
• Silver – Silver double-bottomed at $21.41 before rallying above $22.20 overnight.
• Bonds – Bonds fell as the 10-yr rate bounced to 1.485%.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil appears to be rolling over and that is a weak sign for the SPX.
• Dollar Index –The USD spiked to 96.90 after the Fed minutes but rolled over into the evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week is 12/13 and 12/15.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 14, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The hotter than expected PPI report for wholesale inflation rattled the SPX early in the session before a fractional comeback into the close. Our bias is that a C-Wave down started on Monday and could continue down after the FOMC minutes into the weekend where the Full Moon on 12/18 and the Venus retrograde on 12/19 could give us a trading low on Monday. The 12/18-12/20 Full Moon Timing Window/Venus retrograde turn window could bottom the C-Wave that started on Monday. On Saturday, we saw an impressive alignment of Uranus, the Moon, Jupiter, Saturn, Neptune and Venus and this could signal that a major top is at hand. Chairman Powell has raised inflation to his number one priority and the new FOMC committee appear receptive to the idea of a stronger near-term tightening of monetary policy. We remain in 50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, new Covid variant, etc.) and now a more aggressive Fed that wants to rein in inflation. Crude oil is rolling over and that is market bearish. After testing 45700 on Monday, Bitcoin bounced to 48315 on Tuesday but continues to trade below 50000 which looks bearish for the stock market. Gold fell to $1770 Tuesday evening and tends to decline into the FOMC minutes – a 20-day cycle low is due this week. The USD continues to consolidate sideways and continues to hold up near 96.50.

12/14/21 (Commentary for Tuesday) The hot PPI report pressured the SPX at the open, and despite the bounce into the close, the SPX appears to be sub-dividing down in a C-Wave with a symmetry target below the 12/1 low at 4495 by the 12/18-12/20 turn window which could be the start of a X-mas rally. The big range days over the last two weeks in the NDX and SPX are indicative of a topping bull market – the “planetary alignment that clustered on both sides of the Moon” into Saturday argues that an important top was made on Friday. Chairman Powell said that he will present a “more aggressive tapering plan” to the new FOMC at the December meeting despite back-to-back months of weaker than expected NFP job creation. Historically, when the Fed has drained liquidity from the financial markets via cuts in bond purchases, big moves down have started in the stock market since 2008. Bitcoin continues to trade weak and is holding below the key 50000 level – this is a bearish sign for the stock market. The trendlines from the Covid low on 3/23 turned back the last speculative highs in TSLA, Bitcoin, and the IWM near the 11/4 New Moon and continue to remain as stiff resistance. We still hold 50% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too great with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and a now more aggressive Fed targeting inflation. Another scary signal came from recent news that the down payments of 20% of first home buyers came from Bitcoin profits – the US economy is highly-levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies. Gold fell hard today and needs to hold above $1762 this week to remain in a short-term bullish formation. Crude oil rolled over on Monday and looks short-term bearish. Bonds continued their corrective bounce from 12/8 as this sector gets a flight to quality from asset reallocators. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months but the Fed looks determined to quicken the withdrawal of financial liquidity from the US stock market at this week’s Fed meeting despite slowing global growth concerns. The USD continued to trade sideways into Monday and is still holding around 96.50.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) –Friday, the SPX made a B-Wave test of the 11/22 high at 4740. On Monday, the SPX started a C-Wave down which continued to sub-divide down on Tuesday – we may see a symmetry correction which undercuts the 12/1 low at 4495 by Monday. The Russell 2000 and the NYSE Composite have already given us an EW 5-wave decline on the daily charts into 12/1 which is a bear market signal.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold needs to hold above $1762 going into the weekend to maintain a short-term bullish posture. Gold is bottoming a 20-day cycle this week and that could give us a Daily Cycle Low (DCL) below $1762.

• Stocks – The SPX continued to sub-divide down in its C-Wave which should target the 12/1 low at 4495 by the 12/18-12/20 Full Moon Timing Window + Venus retrograde.
• Gold – Gold needs to hold $1762 to maintain a bullish pattern on its daily chart - an undercut low below $1758 would be bearish.
• Silver – Silver sliced through $22 and tested $21.67 today before bouncing – lower lows are possible after the FOMC minutes on Wednesday. The SIL made lower lows today which looks bearish for silver.
• Bonds – Bonds continued to bounce today on stock market weakness but the rally looks corrective.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil appears to be rolling over and that is another weak sign for the SPX.
• Dollar Index –The USD continued to hold up near 96.51 on Tuesday despite the hot PPI report.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week is 12/13 and 12/15.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 13, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Our weekend bias was that the E-mini would test highs today before bullishly consolidating into Fed Day on Wednesday – that did not happen and we got more defensive. We now our focused on the possibility that Friday made a B-Wave test of the 11/22 high at 4740 and we started a C-Wave down today. This week includes a Fed meeting and we should see some Wave 2 of C consolidation in the SPX going into Wednesday before a Wave 3 of C down. On 12/19, Venus will go retrograde and that could mark the last chance for a high SPX print before a sharp correction into January. On Saturday, we saw an impressive alignment of Uranus, the Moon, Jupiter, Saturn, Neptune and Venus and this could signal that a major top is close at hand. Chairman Powell has raised inflation to his number one priority and the new FOMC committee appear receptive to the idea of a near-term tightening of monetary policy. We remain in 50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, new Covid variant, etc.) and now a more aggressive Fed that wants to rein in inflation. Crude oil appears to be rolling over and that is market bearish. Bitcoin tested its S2 pivot at 45575 Monday night and continues to trade below 50000 which looks bearish for the stock market. Gold continues to hold up below $1800 as we approach Fed Wednesday and a 20-day cycle low is due this week. The USD continues to consolidate sideways and is holding up near 96.50.

12/13/21 (Commentary for Monday) Market action today was bearish and made Friday look like a B-Wave test of the 11/22 high at 4740. The E-mini may have started a C-Wave down today and we could see a Wave 2 consolidation into Wednesday. The big range days over the last two weeks in the NDX and SPX are indicative of a topping bull market – the “planetary alignment that clustered on both sides of the Moon” into Saturday argues that an important top was made on Friday. Chairman Powell said that he will present a “more aggressive tapering plan” to the new FOMC at the December meeting despite back-to-back months of weaker than expected NFP job creation. Historically, when the Fed has drained liquidity from the financial markets via cuts in bond purchases, big moves down have started in the stock market since 2008. Bitcoin continues to trade weak and is holding below the key 50000 level – this is a bearish sign for the stock market. The trendlines from the Covid low on 3/23 turned back the last speculative highs in TSLA, Bitcoin, and the IWM near the 11/4 New Moon continue to remain as stiff resistance. We still hold 50% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too great with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and a now more aggressive Fed targeting inflation. Another scary signal came from recent news that the down payments of 20% of first home buyers came from Bitcoin profits – the US economy is highly-levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies. Gold may have made a DCL (Daily Cycle Low) at $1762.2 Thursday afternoon and gold needs to hold above $1762 this week to remain in a short-term bullish formation. Crude oil rolled over on Monday and looks short-term bearish. Bonds tested 164’12 on 12/3 before declining in an EW 5-waves down into 12/8 to test 160’13 – bonds rallied on stock weakness on Monday. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months but the Fed looks determined to quicken the withdrawal of financial liquidity from the US stock market at this week’s Fed meeting despite slowing global growth concerns. The USD continued to trade sideways into Monday and is still holding around 96.50.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) –Friday, the SPX may have made a B-Wave test of the 11/22 high at 4740 – we may have started a C-Wave down on Monday. The Russell 2000 and the NYSE Composite have already given us an EW 5-wave decline on the daily charts into 12/1 which is a bear market signal.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold needs to hold above $1762 going into the weekend to maintain a short-term bullish posture. Gold is bottoming a 20-day cycle this week and we should see a move above $1800.

• Stocks – Today’s market tape strongly suggests to us that the SPX made a B-Wave test of the 11/22 highs at 4745 on Friday – we may have started a C-Wave down today.
• Gold – Gold may have made a DCL (Daily Cycle low) on 12/2 but needs to rally above $1800 to convince us that an important low was made last week. An undercut low below $1758 would be bearish.
• Silver – Silver tested $22.44 on Monday and the SIL (silver stocks) is trying to lead silver which is bullish.
• Bonds – Bonds declined in 5-waves from 164’12 on last week to 160’13 on 12/8 and got a bounce into Monday.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil bounced and appears to be rolling over.
• Dollar Index –The USD continued to hold up Monday despite the hot CPI report early Friday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window3 for this week is 12/13 and 12/15.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - December 12, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The NDX and SPX held up well after the hotter than expected year-over-year CPI number of 6.4% and these indices look posed to make new highs by the 12/19-12/20 turn window. However, this week includes a Fed meeting and we should see some consolidation in the SPX going into Wednesday before a final run higher by the NDX and SPX. On 12/19 Venus will go retrograde and that could mark the high SPX print of the year before a sharp correction into January. On Saturday, we saw an impressive alignment of Uranus, the Moon, Jupiter, Saturn, Neptune and Venus and this could signal that a major top is close at hand. Chairman Powell has raised inflation to his number one priority and the new FOMC committee appear receptive to the idea of a near-term tightening of monetary policy. We remain in 50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, new Covid variant, etc.) and now a more aggressive Fed that wants to rein in inflation. Crude oil may have finished just an EW a-b-c bounce and looks weak. Bitcoin is also looking weak here and continues to trade below 50000 which looks bearish for the stock market. Gold tested $1794 early Wednesday but is still holding under $1800 which looks weak to us. The USD continues to consolidate sideways but could rally on a weaker than expected CPI report.

12/12/21 (Commentary for Sunday) The SPX held up after the hot CPI report and could make new highs by the 12/19-12/20 turn window. should determine the short-term trend of the SPX on Friday. The E-mini could make a new high by Monday before a consolidation into Wednesday’s FOMC minutes and Chairman Powell news conference. The big range days over the last two weeks in the NDX and SPX are indicative of a topping bull market – powerful geo-cosmic turning points from mid-December to 12/20 could top this stock market after a final blow off in the SPX and NDX. The “planetary alignment that clustered on both sides of the Moon” into Saturday argue that an important top is close at hand. Chairman Powell said that he will present a “more aggressive tapering plan” to the new FOMC at the December meeting despite back-to-back months of weaker than expected NFP job creation. When the Fed has drained liquidity from the financial markets via cuts in bond purchases, big moves down have started in the stock market since 2008. Bitcoin continues to trade weak and is holding below the key 50000 level – this is a bearish sign for the stock market. The trendlines from the Covid low on 3/23 turned back the last speculative highs in TSLA, Bitcoin, and the IWM near the 11/4 New Moon but taking out those barriers would be bullish. We still hold 50% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too great with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and a now more aggressive Fed targeting inflation. Another scary signal came from recent news that the down payments of 20% of first home buyers came from Bitcoin profits – the US economy is highly-levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies. Gold may have made a DCL (Daily Cycle Low) at $1762.2 Thursday afternoon but the CPI report early Friday will set the short-term trend. Gold did get to $1794 early 12/8 but could test those highs early Monday before consolidation into Wednesday’s Fed day. Crude oil is rallying to test its R1 pivot at $73.67 Sunday evening but momentum is lagging.  Bonds tested 164’12 on 12/3 before declining in an EW 5-waves down into Wednesday to test 160’13 – bonds sold off after a hot CPI report on Friday. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months but the Fed looks determined to quicken the withdrawal of financial liquidity from the US stock market at the December meeting despite slowing global growth concerns. The USD trended sideways last week, but the hot CPI report should erode the USD and it appears to be rolling over Sunday night.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) –The SPX could be rallying to retest the all-time high this week – a new high in the 12/19-12/20 turn window could be an important pattern completion. The Russell 2000 and the NYSE Composite have already given us an EW 5-wave decline on the daily charts into 12/1 which is a bear market signal – the Russell 2000 may only have the potential to form a right-hand shoulder.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold may have finished a DCL (Daily Cycle Low) on 12/2 and gave us a rally to $1794 on early Wednesday. We need to see a bounce over $1800 to verify the DCL.

• Stocks – The CPI came in hotter than expected, but the SPX held up into the close – The E-mini could make new highs on Monday before consolidating into the Fed FOMC minutes on Wednesday afternoon.
• Gold – Gold may have made a DCL (Daily Cycle low) on 12/2 but needs to rally above $1800 to convince us that an important low was made last Thursday. An undercut low below $1758 would be bearish.
• Silver – Silver gave us an undercut low to $21.82 on 12/9 but a wash out this week to $21.50 is possible.
• Bonds – Bonds declined in 5-waves from 164’12 on last week to 160’13 on Wednesday and appears to be rolling over Sunday night.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil bounced to test $73.36 Wednesday, but the rally looked 3-wave corrective and this market is looking to roll over.
• Dollar Index –The USD is rolling over Sunday night after the hot CPI report early Friday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window3 for this week is 12/13 and 12/15.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 9, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The NDX and SPX appear to be consolidating in a small 4^th wave as the market awaits the early Friday CPI report. However, the market could go either way tomorrow. The SPX rally pattern from 12/3 could be just a B-Wave that could be retraced in C-Wave down if the CPI report comes in hotter than expected. Our bias is that the CPI report will come in cooler than the consensus estimate (0.6%) and the SPX could make highs for the week but Biden’s comments about gasoline prices open up the possibly for a hot CPI report. Chairman Powell has raised inflation to his number one priority and the new FOMC committee appear receptive to the idea of a near-term tightening of monetary policy. Our view is that the broad market may have peaked on 11/8 but the SPX and NDX are giving us a “broadening top formation” which could yield another set of new all-time highs by mid-December. CEOs and other corporate insiders sold a record $69B of stock this year – an all-time record – another sign of a euphoric and topping market that is close to making a historic peak. We remain in 50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, new Covid variant, etc.) and now a more aggressive Fed that wants to rein in inflation. Crude oil may have finished just an EW a-b-c bounce and looks weak. Bitcoin is looking weak here and continues to trade below 50000 which looks bearish for the stock market. Gold tested $1794 early Wednesday but is still holding under $1800 which looks weak to us – tomorrow’s CPI report should be a catalyst. The USD continues to consolidate sideways but could rally on a weaker than expected CPI report.

12/09/21 (Commentary for Thursday) The CPI report should determine the short-term trend of the SPX on Friday. The SPX is consolidating the large rally on Monday/Tuesday in a possible 4^th wave into Friday’s CPI report. A cooler than the consensus expectation of .6% could rally the SPX and NDX to highs for the weak but a hot report could see the SPX testing 12/3 lows at 4495. The big range days over the last two weeks in the NDX and SPX are indicative of a topping bull market – powerful geo-cosmic turning points from mid-December to 12/24 could top this stock market after a final blow off in the SPX and NDX. Chairman Powell said that he will present a “more aggressive tapering plan” to the new FOMC at the December meeting despite back-to-back months of weaker than expected NFP job creation. When the Fed has drained liquidity from the financial markets via cuts in bond purchases, big moves down have started in the stock market since 2008. Bitcoin continues to trade weak and is holding below the key 50000 level – this is a bearish sign for the stock market. The trendlines from the Covid low on 3/23 turned back the last speculative highs in TSLA, Bitcoin, and the IWM near the 11/4 New Moon but taking out those barriers would be bullish. We still hold 50% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too great with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and a now more aggressive Fed targeting inflation. Another scary signal came from recent news that the down payments of 20% of first home buyers came from Bitcoin profits – the US economy is highly-levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies. Gold may have made a DCL (Daily Cycle Low) at $1762.2 Thursday afternoon but the CPI report early Friday will set the short-term trend. Gold did get to $1794 early Wednesday – but we need to see a move above $1800 to be convinced that an important low was made on 12/2 as the bullion banks are heavily short. Crude oil rallied to test $73.36 Wednesday evening but appears to be rolling over. Bonds tested 164’12 on Friday before declining in an EW 5-waves down into Wednesday to test 160’13 – the CPI report early Friday could rally bonds on a weaker than expected report. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months but the Fed looks determined to quicken the withdrawal of financial liquidity from the US stock market at the December meeting despite slowing global growth concerns. The USD has been trending sideways this week but a hot CPI report could give us another leg down.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) –The E-mini may have just finished an EW a-b-c correction near Friday’s close in the New Moon Window – the SPX could be rallying to retest the all-time high. The Russell 2000 and the NYSE Composite have already given us an EW 5-wave decline on the daily charts into 12/1 which is a bear market signal – the Russell 2000 may only have the potential to form a right-hand shoulder.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold may have finished a DCL (Daily Cycle Low) on Thursday and gave us a rally to $1794 on early Wednesday. We need to see a bounce over $1800 to verify the DCL. A cooler than expected CPI report early Friday could give gold the next leg down.

• Stocks – The CPI report will determine the short-term trend of the SPX – a cooler than expected report could take the SPX to new highs for the week, but a hotter than expected report could take us down to test the 12/3 lows at 4495.
• Gold – Gold may have made a DCL (Daily Cycle low) on 12/2 but needs to rally above $1800 to convince us of an important low. The CPI report early Friday will determine the short-term trend. An undercut low below $1758 would be bearish.
• Silver – Silver gave us an undercut low to $21.82 early Thursday but a wash out early Friday to $21.50 is possible.
• Bonds – Bonds declined in 5-waves from 164’12 on Monday to 160’13 on Wednesday – a cooler than expected CPI report should give us bounce.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil bounced to test $73.36 Wednesday, but the rally looked 3-wave corrective and this market is looking to roll over.
• Dollar Index –The USD is consolidating sideways this week but a hot CPI report could give us a C-Wave down to test 95.58.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 12/10, which includes the early CPI report.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 8, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The NDX and SPX appear to be consolidating in a small 4^th wave as the market awaits the early Friday CPI report.  Our bias is that the CPI report will come in cooler than the consensus estimate (0.6%) and the SPX could blow off higher into 12/19 or so. On a modest sideways day for the SPX, the VIX fell below 20 which is bullish. The Option Premium Ratio made an island-reversal high Monday (.97, 1.12, .81, .71) and that is also bullish for the SPX. The SPX and NDX made a low in the 12/3-12/6 New Moon Timing Window/Lunar Eclipse and that could propel the SPX and NDX to test all-time highs by Friday if the CPI number comes in cooler than expected. Chairman Powell has raised inflation to his number one priority and the new FOMC committee appear receptive to the idea of a near-term tightening of monetary policy. Our bias is that the broad market may have peaked on 11/8 but the SPX and NDX are giving us a “broadening top formation” which could yield another set of new all-time highs by mid-December. CEOs and other corporate insiders sold a record $69B of stock this year – an all-time record – another sign of a euphoric and topping market that is close to making a historic peak. We remain in 50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, new Covid variant, etc.) and now a more aggressive Fed that wants to rein in inflation. Crude oil tested $73.36 Wednesday evening but is giving us bearish divergence on our momentum oscillator. Bitcoin is looking weak here and is trading below 50000 which looks bearish for the stock market. Gold tested $1794 early Wednesday but is still holding under $1800 which looks weak to us. The USD tested the 96.61 high made after the start of Powell’s testimony last week on early Tuesday and then started to decline impulsively.

12/08/21 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX is consolidating the large rally on Monday/Tuesday in a small 4^th wave into Friday’s CPI report. A cooler than the consensus expectation of .6% could rally the SPX and NDX to new all-time highs. The big range days over the last two weeks in the NDX and SPX are indicative of a topping bull market – powerful geo-cosmic turning points from mid-December to 12/24 could top this stock market after a final blow off in the SPX and NDX. Chairman Powell said that he will present a “more aggressive tapering plan” to the new FOMC at the December meeting despite back-to-back months of weaker than expected NFP job creation. When the Fed has drained liquidity from the financial markets via cuts in bond purchases, big moves down have started in the stock market since 2008. Bitcoin continues to trade weak and is holding below the key 50000 level – this is a bearish sign for the stock market. The trendlines from the Covid low on 3/23 turned back the last speculative highs in TSLA, Bitcoin, and the IWM near the 11/4 New Moon but taking out those barriers would be bullish. We still hold 50% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too great with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and a now more aggressive Fed targeting inflation. Another scary signal came from recent news that the down payments of 20% of first home buyers came from Bitcoin profits – the US economy is highly-levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies. Gold may have made a DCL (Daily Cycle Low) at $1762.2 Thursday afternoon and we did get to $1794 early Wednesday – but we need to see a move above $1800 to be convinced that an important low was made on 12/2. Crude oil rallied to test $73.36 Wednesday evening but with bearish divergence from our momentum oscillator. Bonds tested 164’12 on Friday before declining in an EW 5-waves down into Wednesday to test 160’13. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months but the Fed looks determined to quicken the withdrawal of financial liquidity from the US stock market at the December meeting despite slowing global growth concerns. The USD retested 96.61 early Tuesday and started an impulsive move down.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) –The E-mini may have just finished an EW a-b-c correction near Friday’s close in the New Moon Window – the SPX could be rallying to retest the all-time high. The Russell 2000 and the NYSE Composite have already given us an EW 5-wave decline on the daily charts into 12/1 which is a bear market signal – the Russell 2000 may only have the potential to form a right-hand shoulder.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold may have finished a DCL (Daily Cycle Low) on Thursday and gave us a rally to $1794 on early Wednesday. We need to see a bounce over $1800 to verify the DCL. A cooler than expected CPI report early Friday could give gold the next leg down.

• Stocks – The SPX may have just finished an EW a-b-c correction into Friday, and we may started a new up leg to make new highs. The SPX could correct into Thursday in a shallow 4^th wave and a cooler than expected CPI report early Friday could see the SPX make new all-time highs.
• Gold – Gold may have made a DCL (Daily Cycle low) on 12/2 but needs to rally above $1800 to convince us of an important low. An undercut low below $1758 would be bearish.
• Silver – Silver gave us an undercut low to $22.03 early Friday and has only given us a bounce to $22.60 on Tuesday so far.
• Bonds – Bonds declined in 5-waves from 164’12 on Monday to 160’13 on Wednesday – we may have seen a short-term top.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil bounced to test $73.36 Wednesday but the rally has bearish divergence on our momentum oscillator.
• Dollar Index –The USD retested 96.61 Tuesday before rolling over in a possible C-Wave down to test 95.58.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 12/3-12/6, the New Moon Timing Window.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 7, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The NDX and SPX continued to roar higher as data about the Omicron variant is coming in more benign than feared. The Option Premium Ratio made an island-reversal high Monday (.97, 1.12, .81) and that is bullish for the SPX. The SPX and NDX made a low in the 12/3-12/6 New Moon Timing Window/Lunar Eclipse and that could propel the SPX and NDX to test highs by Friday. The key economic report for the week is the CPI report early Friday and a cooler than expected report could rally the SPX and NDX to make new all-time highs. Chairman Powell has raised inflation to his number one priority and the new FOMC committee appear receptive to the idea of a near-term tightening of monetary policy. Our bias is that the broad market may have peaked on 11/8 but the SPX and NDX are giving us a “broadening top formation” which could yield another set of new all-time highs in December. CEOs and other corporate insiders sold a record $69B of stock this year – an all-time record – another sign of a euphoric and topping market that is close to making a historic peak. We remain in 50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, new Covid variant, etc.) and now a more aggressive Fed that wants to rein in inflation. Crude oil appears to be giving us an EW a-b-c bounce that tested $73 on Tuesday. Bitcoin tested its R1 resistance pivot at 51808 before pulling back. Gold tested $1792 on Tuesday after making a low in the New Moon Timing Window. The USD tested the 96.61 high made after the start of Powell’s testimony last week on early Tuesday and then started to roll over into Tuesday evening.

12/07/21 (Commentary for Tuesday) The oversold SPX rally from 12/1 continued to extend today on benign news about the Omicron variant. The SPX should now consolidate into Friday’s CPI report which should be a market mover. A cooler than the consensus expectation of .6% could rally the SPX and NDX to new all-time highs. The big range days over the last two weeks in the NDX and SPX are indicative of a topping bull market – powerful geo-cosmic turning points from mid-December to 12/24 could top this stock market. Chairman Powell said that he will present a “more aggressive tapering plan” to the new FOMC at the December meeting despite back-to-back months of weaker than expected NFP job creation. When the Fed has drained liquidity from the financial markets via cuts in bond purchases, big moves down have started in the stock market since 2008. Bitcoin tested its R1 resistance pivot at 51808 Tuesday night before falling below its Person’s pivot at 51113. The trendlines from the Covid low on 3/23 turned back the last speculative highs in TSLA, Bitcoin, and the IWM near the 11/4 New Moon and taking out those barriers would be bullish. We still hold 50% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too great with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and a now more aggressive Fed targeting inflation. Another scary signal came from news that the down payments of 20% of first home buyers came from Bitcoin profits last week – the US economy is highly-levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies. Gold may have made a DCL (Daily Cycle Low) at $1762.2 Thursday afternoon and we did get to $1791 on Tuesday – but we need to see a rally above $1800 to be convincing. Crude oil bounced to test $73 on Tuesday, but the rally could be corrective. Bonds tested 164’12 on Friday before declining in an EW 5-waves down into Tuesday to test 161’23. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months but the Fed looks determined to quicken the withdrawal of financial liquidity from the US stock market at the December meeting despite slowing global growth concerns. The USD retested 96.61 early Tuesday before rolling over into the close.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) –The E-mini may have just finished an EW a-b-c correction near Friday’s close in the New Moon Window – the SPX could be rallying to retest the all-time high. The Russell 2000 and the NYSE Composite have already given us an EW 5-wave decline on the daily charts into 12/1 which is a bear market signal – the Russell 2000 may only have the potential to form a right-hand shoulder.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold may have finished a DCL (Daily Cycle Low) on Thursday and gave us a rally to $1791 on Tuesday. We need to see a bounce over $1800 to verify the DCL.

• Stocks – The SPX may have just finished an EW a-b-c correction into Friday, and we may started a new up leg to make new highs. The SPX could correct into Thursday in a shallow 4^th wave and a cooler than expected CPI report early Friday could make highs for the week.
• Gold –. Gold may have made a DCL (Daily Cycle low) Thursday afternoon but needs to rally above $1800 to convince us. An undercut low below $1758 would be bearish.
• Silver – Silver gave us an undercut low to $22.03 early Friday and has only given us a bounce to $22.60 on Tuesday so far.
• Bonds – Bonds declined in 5-waves from 164’12 on Monday to 161’23 on Tuesday – is this a short-term top?
• Crude Oil – Crude oil bounced to test $73 today but the rally looks corrective.
• Dollar Index –The USD retested 96.61 Tuesday before rolling over in a possible C-Wave down to test 95.58.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 12/3-12/6, the New Moon Timing Window.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 6, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The very oversold SPX bounced back on Monday but the E-mini looks like it is tracing out just an EW a-b-c from last Wednesday’s close. The Option Premium Ratio jumped to 1.12 - highs for the correction. The key economic report for the week is the CPI report early Friday. Chairman Powell has raised inflation to his number one priority and the new FOMC committee appear receptive to the idea of a near-term tightening of monetary policy. Our bias is that the broad market may have peaked on 11/8 but the SPX and NDX are giving us a “broadening top formation” which could give us another rally phase soon to build out a right-hand shoulder. CEOs and other corporate insiders sold a record $69B of stock this year – an all-time record – another sign of a euphoric and topping market that is close to making a historic peak. The SPX is getting hit with a one-two punch from the Omicron variant and a more aggressive Fed and is trading below some heavy Dark Pool prints on the SPY which is bearish. We remain in 50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, new Covid variant, etc.) and now a more aggressive Fed that wants to rein in inflation. Crude oil appears to be giving us an EW a-b-c bounce that is testing $70 Monday evening. Bitcoin bounced off its S2 support pivot at 48280 and is testing its R1 resistance pivot at 51562. Gold bounced to test $1786 on Monday after making a low in the New Moon Timing Window. The USD declined in 5-waves on the hourly chart before spiking higher to 96.61 after the start of Powell’s testimony – the action since 11/30 looks like a corrective consolidation.

12/06/21 (Commentary for Monday) The oversold E-mini rebounded from 12/1 but the pattern looks corrective so far. The big range days over the last two weeks in the NDX and SPX are indicative of a topping bull market – the one-two punch of the Omicron variant and a hawkish Fed could topple the SPX and NDX over into a bear market after the broad market topped with the Russell 2000 on 11/8. Chairman Powell said that he will present a “more aggressive tapering plan” to the new FOMC at the December meeting but the much weaker than expected NFP jobs number may complicate that. When the Fed has drained liquidity from the financial markets via cuts in bond purchases, big moves down have started in the stock market since 2008. Led by MARA, Bitcoin rebounded strong to test its R1 resistance pivot at 51540 Monday night. The trendlines from the Covid low on 3/23 turned back the last speculative highs in TSLA, Bitcoin, and the IWM near the 11/4 New Moon and then the NYSE Composite gave us an EW 5-waves down on the daily chart into 12/1. We still hold 50% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too great with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and a now more aggressive Fed targeting inflation. Another scary signal came from news that the down payments of 20% of first home buyers came from Bitcoin profits last week – the US economy is highly-levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies. Gold and the GDX traded down into Friday’s NFP jobs report and the New Moon Timing Window – gold may have made a DCL (Daily Cycle Low) at $1762.2 Thursday afternoon – but needs to see a rally above $1800 to be convincing. Crude oil traced out another undercut low at $62.43 before the New Moon and bounced correctively to test $70 on Monday. Bonds sub-divided higher to test 164’12 Friday before correcting on Monday. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months but the Fed looks determined to quicken the withdrawal of financial liquidity from the US stock market at the December meeting despite slowing global growth concerns. The USD declined in 5-waves on the hourly chart going into Powell’s testimony but did get a spike higher to 96.61 which is getting corrected into Monday night.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) –The E-mini gave us an EW 5-waves down into the 12/1 close and appears to be giving us an EW a-b-c bounce into Monday evening.  The Russell 2000 and the NYSE Composite have already given us an EW 5-wave decline on the daily charts into 12/1 which is a bear market signal – the Russell 2000 bounced correctively into Monday night.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold may have finished a DCL (Daily Cycle Low) on Thursday but has only given us a weak bounce to $1786 on Monday. W e need to see a bounce over $1800 to verify the DCL.

• Stocks – After 5-waves down into the 12/1 close, the E-mini is giving us just a sideways EW a-b-c into Monday night which looks bearish.
• Gold – Gold may have made a DCL (Daily Cycle low) Thursday afternoon but needs to rally above $1800 to convince us. An undercut low below $1758 would be bearish.
• Silver – Silver gave us an undercut low to $22.03 early Friday and only gave us a weak bounce after the New Moon Timing Window.
• Bonds – Bonds pulled back correctively from 164’12 on Monday.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $62.43 early Thursday before the New Moon and then bounced correctively to test $70 on Monday.
• Dollar Index –The USD declined in 5-waves on the hourly chart into Chairman Powell’s statement and then briefly spiked to 96.64 on Tuesday before correcting into Monday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 12/3-12/6, the New Moon Timing Window.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - December 5, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX and NDX are reeling from the 1-2 punch of news of the Omicron variant and Chairman Powell’s more hawkish take on the Fed’s financial taper. The much weaker than expected NFP jobs report underlies the risk that the US economy was weaker than expected even before the Omicron variant was announced and the weak Black Friday sales could augur a weak retail holiday season. The weaker than expected NFP jobs number may not stay the hand of Chairman Powell who has raised inflation to his number one priority. The stock market saw almost panic selling last week and we could be close to a trading low early Monday.  The Russell 2000 and DJIA peaked on 11/8 and saw heaving selling and the SPX and NDX saw an all-time high on 11/22 and then gave us heaving selling. Our bias is that the broad market may have peaked on 11/8 but the SPX and NDX are giving us a “broadening top formation” which could give us another rally phase soon to build out a right-hand shoulder. CEOs and other corporate insiders sold a record $69B of stock this year – an all-time record – another sign of a euphoric and topping market that is close to making a historic peak. The SPX is getting hit with a one-two punch from the Omicron variant and a more aggressive Fed and are trading below some heavy Dark Pool prints on the SPY which is bearish. We are seeing a rebound in the SPX Sunday night in the 12/3-12/6 New Moon Timing Window and the 13-day Fibonacci step out from the 11/22 all-time high – a weaker than expected NFP jobs number will set the SPX tone at the open. Both the NYA (NYSE Composite) and the IWM finished an EW 5-wave decline on the daily chart on heavy volume days Tuesday and Wednesday – we are only getting a corrective-looking bounce Sunday night. We remain in 50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, new Covid variant, etc.) and now a more aggressive Fed that wants to rein in inflation. Crude oil gave us an undercut low at $62.43 and is bouncing into Sunday night. Bitcoin is testing its S2 support pivot at 48280 and appears to be leading the stock market down. Gold is rebounding into Sunday night but the bounce does not look impressive so far. The USD declined in 5-waves on the hourly chart before spiking higher to 96.61 after the start of Powell’s testimony – the action since late Tuesday looks like a corrective consolidation.

12/05/21 (Commentary for Sunday) The NFP jobs report on Friday came in much weaker than expected and questions remain about the US economy as we head into the holiday season. The big range days over the last two weeks in the NDX and SPX are indicative of a topping bull market – the one-two punch of the Omicron variant and a hawkish Fed could topple the SPX and NDX over into a bear market after the broad market topped with the Russell 2000 on 11/8. The swing of the Fed’s focus to target inflation over further employment gains hit the markets hard last week and the E-mini tested lows for the week on Friday’s close before bouncing on Sunday night. Chairman Powell said that he will present a “more aggressive tapering plan” to the new FOMC at the December meeting but the much weaker than expected NFP jobs number may complicate that. When the Fed has drained liquidity from the financial markets via cuts in bond purchases, big moves down have started in the stock market since 2008. Bitcoin has been leading the stock market down recently and its plunge below 49000 Sunday night is bearish for the stock market after the 12/3-12/6 New Moon Timing Window. The trendlines from the Covid low on 3/23 turned back the last speculative highs in TSLA, Bitcoin, and the IWM near the 11/4 New Moon and then the NYSE Composite gave us an EW 5-waves down on the daily chart into Tuesday – this has bearish implications for the stock market after the retracement rally into the New Moon weekend. We still hold 50% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too great with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and a now more aggressive Fed targeting inflation. Another scary signal came from news that the down payments of 20% of first home buyers came from Bitcoin profits last week – the US economy is highly-levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies. Gold and the GDX traded down into Friday’s NFP jobs report and the New Moon Timing Window – gold may have made a DCL (Daily Cycle Low) at $1762.2 Thursday afternoon – but needs to see a rally above $1800 to be convincing. Crude oil traced out another undercut low at $62.43 and is bouncing into Sunday night. Bonds continued to sub-divide higher to test 164’12 Friday despite the hawkish tone taken by Chairman Powell on inflation. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months but the Fed looks determined to quicken the withdrawal of financial liquidity from the US stock market at the December meeting despite slowing global growth concerns. The USD declined in 5-waves on the hourly chart going into Powell’s testimony but did get a spike higher to 96.61 which is getting corrected into Sunday night.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) –The E-mini gave us an EW 5-waves down into Wednesday’s close and appears to be giving us an EW a-b-c bounce into Sunday night.  The Russell 2000 and the NYSE Composite have already given us an EW 5-wave decline on the daily charts into Tuesday which is a bear market signal – the Russell 2000 is bouncing correctively into Sunday night.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold and the GDX are trending down into Friday’s NFP jobs report – a break below $1758 gold will be very bearish in our work. Gold may have finished a DCL (Daily Cycle Low) on Thursday but has only given us  a weak bounce into Sunday night so far.

• Stocks – After 5-waves down into Wednesday’s close, the E-mini is giving us just a sideways EW a-b-c into Sunday night which looks bearish.
• Gold – Gold may have made a DCL (Daily Cycle low) Thursday afternoon but needs to rally above $1800 to convince us. An undercut low below $1758 would be bearish.
• Silver – Silver gave us an undercut low to $22.03 early Friday and is bouncing into Sunday night.
• Bonds – Bonds continued to sub-divide up on Friday despite the hawkish tone from Chairman Powell.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $62.43 early Thursday and is bouncing into the weekend New Moon.
• Dollar Index –The USD declined in 5-waves on the hourly chart into Chairman Powell’s statement and then briefly spiked to 96.64 on Tuesday before correcting into Sunday night.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 12/3-12/6, the New Moon Timing Window.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 2, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX finished 5-waves down on the hourly chart into Wednesday’s close and started an EW a-b-c correction into the 12/3-12/6 New Moon Timing Window that includes a solar eclipse. The NFP jobs report pre-market Friday will set the tone for the open. A weaker than expected jobs number may give the market hope of a less hawkish Fed at the December FOMC meeting. The Russell 2000 also gave us 5-waves down on the hourly chart into Wednesday’s close and started a 3-wave correction into the weekend New Moon. CEOs and other corporate insiders sold a record $69B of stock this year – an all-time record – another sign of a euphoric and topping market that is close to making a historic peak. The Fed made inflation its number one target early Tuesday and Powell hinted that a more aggressive taper would be discussed at the December Fed meeting. So essentially, the SPX is getting hit with a one-two punch from the Omicron variant and a more aggressive Fed and are trading below some heavy Dark Pool prints on the SPY which is bearish. We are seeing a corrective rebound in the NDX and SPX into the 12/3 NFP jobs report which is in the 12/3-12/6 New Moon Timing Window – a weaker than expected NFP jobs number will set the SPX tone at the open. Both the NYA (NYSE Composite) and the IWM finished an EW 5-wave decline on the daily chart on heavy volume days Tuesday and Wednesday – we only expect a retracement bounce into the weekend New Moon. We remain in 50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, new Covid variant, etc.) and now a more aggressive Fed that wants to rein in inflation. Crude oil gave us an undercut low at $62.43 and should also rebound into the New Moon. The GDX is leading the stock market down here – the PM sector tends to trend down into Friday’s NFP jobs report. The USD declined in 5-waves on the hourly chart before spiking higher to 96.61 after the start of Powell’s testimony.

12/01/21 (Commentary for Wednesday) The big range days over the last two weeks in the NDX and SPX are indicative of a BULL MARKET TOP – the one-two punch of the Omicron variant and a hawkish Fed could topple the SPX and NDX over into a bear market after the broad market topped with the Russell 2000 on 11/8. The swing of the Fed’s focus to target inflation over further employment gains hit and the potential economic fallout from the Omicron variant hit the SPX hard into Wednesday’s close and then started an EW a-b-c bounce into the 12/3-12/6 New Moon Timing Window – the NFP jobs report will set the market tone at Friday’s open. Chairman Powell said that he will present a “more aggressive tapering plan” to the new FOMC at the December meeting but a weaker than expected NFP jobs number may complicate that. When the Fed has drained liquidity from the financial markets via cuts in bond purchases, big moves down have started in the stock market since 2008. Bitcoin is also tracing out an EW a-b-c bounce into the weekend New Moon and this looks bearish for the stock market after the 12/3-12/6 New Moon Timing Window. The trendlines from the Covid low on 3/23 turned back the last speculative highs in TSLA, Bitcoin, and the IWM near the 11/4 New Moon and then the NYSE Composite gave us an EW 5-waves down on the daily chart into Tuesday – this has bearish implications for the stock market after a retracement rally into the New Moon weekend. We still hold 50% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too great with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and a now more aggressive Fed targeting inflation. Another scary signal came from news that the down payments of 20% of first home buyers came from Bitcoin profits last week – the US economy is highly-levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies. Gold and the GDX are trending down into Friday’s NFP jobs report and the New Moon Timing Window – gold may have made a DCL (Daily Cycle Low) today. Crude oil traced out another undercut low at $62.43 and also looks to bounce into the weekend New Moon. Bonds continued to sub-divide higher despite the hawkish tone taken by Chairman Powell on inflation. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months but the Fed looks determined to quicken the withdrawal of financial liquidity from the US stock market at the December meeting despite slowing global growth concerns. The USD declined in 5-waves on the hourly chart going into Powell’s testimony but did get a spike higher to 96.61 which is getting corrected into Thursday.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX gave us an EW 5-waves down into Wednesday’s close and is bouncing into the weekend New Moon.  The Russell 2000 and the NYSE Composite have already given us an EW 5-wave decline on the daily charts into Tuesday which is a bear market signal. A SPX corrective rebound rally into Friday/Monday should be shorted.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold and the GDX are trending down into Friday’s NFP jobs report – a break below $1758 gold will be very bearish in our work. Gold may have finished a DCL (Daily Cycle Low) on Thursday.

• Stocks – After 5-waves down into Wednesday’s close, the SPX is rebounding into Friday’s NFP jobs report and weekend New Moon. Just a corrective bounce in the SPX and the NDX into Friday/Monday should be shorted for another leg down.
• Gold – Gold continues to trend down into Friday’s NFP jobs report. Gold may have made a DCL (Daily Cycle low) today. An undercut low below $1758 would be bearish.
• Silver – Silver tested $22.18 on Thursday but could give us an undercut low into early Friday. 
• Bonds – Bonds continued to sub-divide up Thursday despite the hawkish tone from Chairman Powell.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $62.43 early Thursday and is trying to bounce into the weekend New Moon.
• Dollar Index –The USD declined in 5-waves on the hourly chart into Chairman Powell’s statement and then briefly spiked to 96.64 on Tuesday before correcting into Thursday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 12/3-12/6, the New Moon Timing Window.