All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 30, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX made highs for the week at 4808.93 and the DJIA made a new all-time high at 36572. However, this “split market” will end badly sometime in early January and give us a strong stock market correction. Holding defensive stock sectors like utilities and PM royalty companies like FNV and WPM make sense here. Bitcoin is the speculative leader of the great stock market rally of 2020-2021 and its recent failed breakout attempt should be concerning to its most ardent bulls. What is the recent weakness in Bitcoin telling the market? Is it possible that the gold/bitcoin arbitrage has turned in favor of gold? Is money flowing from Bitcoin into gold and silver? The SPX and the DJIA both made a new all-time high today and then sold off into the close. Bitcoin is holding above its Person’s Pivot tonight around 47412 but still looks weak. Crude oil tested $77.50 early Thursday and is holding up into the New Moon weekend. We remain in 50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, new Covid variant, etc.) and now a more aggressive Fed that wants to rein in inflation. Gold rebounded on Thursday and tested the $1821 high of the week - the big cap gold stocks (NEM, GOLD and AEM) are trying to lead the PM sector higher. The USD continued to oscillate around 96 as the 10-yr US rate rallied to 1.515%.

12/30/21 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX and DJIA both made new all-time highs today but sold off into the close. However, the “split market” will end badly at some point in January and the market will undergo a serous correction. We recommend some defensive holdings like utilities and PM royalty companies like FNV and WPM. So far in December, the SPX has rallied past the Dec 4 eclipse, the Dec 11 planetary alignment and the 12/19 Venus retrograde and has continued to make higher highs, in a large broadening top pattern, but the “split market paradigm” should end in early January. Historically, when the Fed has drained liquidity from the financial markets via cuts in bond purchases, big moves down have started in the stock market since 2008 but so far the SPX is holding up. Bitcoin looks weak overnight and remains below 48000 – what is Bitcoin telling us about the health of Mr. Market here? Crude oil tested $77.44 early Thursday and is holding up overnight – our favorite oil stocks, XOM, CVX and COP, have all given us a pretty good run since the 12/20 low. We still hold 50% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too great with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and a now more aggressive Fed targeting inflation. Another scary signal came from the early December news that the down payments of 20% of first home buyers came from Bitcoin profits – the US economy is highly-levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies. After testing $1821 early Tuesday, gold started a quick 3-wave correction that tested $1790 early Wednesday before a snapback rally Thursday that tested $1819 – we need to see gold get above $1835 to take it seriously here. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months and the Fed quickened the reduction of financial liquidity from the US stock market at the December Fed meeting despite slowing global growth concerns. The USD has been oscillating around 96 for three days in a row.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – We are adamant that the SPX is in the process of making a historic top and that the market is living on borrowed time. The Russell 2000 has already given us a bear market signal – an EW 5-waves down on the daily chart into 12/20. The SPX blew off into the 12/27-12/28 turn window which included the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 11/22 high.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – On the 55-day Fibonacci step out from its 11/3 low early Tuesday, gold made a multi-week high at $1821 before a fast 3-wave correction to $1790 early Wednesday. Gold needs to quickly recover and get above $1835 to be taken seriously here.

• Stocks – The SPX and DJIA both made a higher high on Thursday before selling off into the close. The “split market” that we are currently seeing will give way to a stiff market correction in January. Defensive sectors like utilities and PM-based royalty companies like FNV and WPM make sense to us going into 2022.
• Gold – On the 55-day Fibonacci step out from its 11/3 low, gold made a multi-week high at $1821 on Tuesday before a quick 3-wave pullback to $1790 early Wednesday. Gold is fighting back and is testing $1821 Thursday night.
• Silver – Silver also made an early Tuesday high before pulling back in a quick 3-wave correction into early Wednesday. Silver fought back higher on Thursday and is testing $23.17.
• Bonds – Bonds appears to be setting up for a rally on the daily chart.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil continues to hold up above $77 overnight as we approach the weekend New Moon.
• Dollar Index –The USD continues to oscillate around 96 in a tight range.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 12/27-12/28.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 29, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Bitcoin is the speculative leader of the great stock market rally of 2020-2021 and its recent failed breakout attempt should be concerning to the most ardent bulls. What is the recent weakness in Bitcoin telling the market? Is it possible that the gold/bitcoin arbitrage has turned in favor of gold? Is money flowing from Bitcoin into gold and silver? The SPX made its high for the week in the 12/27-12/28 turn window and continued its correction into Wednesday. The rally from 12/20 made a solid EW 5-waves up on the hourly chart and we are now getting a consolidation. Bitcoin is languishing below its Person’s Pivot overnight around 46700 and looks weak. Crude oil, however, is holding above its Person’s Pivot at $76.50 overnight and looks strong going into the New Moon weekend. We remain in 50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, new Covid variant, etc.) and now a more aggressive Fed that wants to rein in inflation. Gold gave us a sharp 3-wave correction from its $1821 high yesterday and tested $1790 before rebounding to $1806 - the big cap gold stocks (NEM, GOLD and AEM) led the metals back from an early hole today. The USD continued to oscillate around 96 as the 10-yr US rate rallied to 1.56%.

12/29/21 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX continued its correction today after making its second weekly divergent high at 4807.02 early Tuesday before a pullback. So far in December, the SPX has rallied past the Dec 4 eclipse, the Dec 11 planetary alignment and the 12/19 Venus retrograde and has continued to make higher highs which is bullish. The rising 10-yr US rate pressured tech stocks today and extended the market correction into Wednesday. Historically, when the Fed has drained liquidity from the financial markets via cuts in bond purchases, big moves down have started in the stock market since 2008 but so far the SPX is holding up. Bitcoin looks weak overnight and remains below 47000 – what is Bitcoin telling us about the health of Mr. Market here. Crude oil tested $77.37 early Wednesday and is holding up overnight – our favorite oil stocks, XOM, CVX and COP, have all given us a pretty good run since the 12/20 low. We still hold 50% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too great with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and a now more aggressive Fed targeting inflation. Another scary signal came from the early December news that the down payments of 20% of first home buyers came from Bitcoin profits – the US economy is highly-levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies. On its 55-day Fibonacci step out from the 11/3 low, gold spiked to test $1821 early Tuesday and started a quick 3-wave correction that tested $1790 early Wednesday before a snapback rally that got to $1806– we need to see gold get above $1835 to take it seriously here. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months and the Fed quickened the reduction of financial liquidity from the US stock market at the December Fed meeting despite slowing global growth concerns. The USD has been oscillating around 96 for three days in a row.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – We are adamant that the SPX is in the process of making a historic top and that the market is living on borrowed time. The Russell 2000 has already given us a bear market signal – an EW 5-waves down on the daily chart into 12/20. The SPX blew off into the 12/27-12/28 turn window which includes the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 11/22 high.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – On the 55-day Fibonacci step out from its 11/3 low early Tuesday, gold made a multi-week high at $1821 before a fast 3-wave correction to $1790 early Wednesday. Gold needs to quickly recover and get above $1835 to be taken seriously here.

• Stocks – The SPX blew off into the 12/27-12/28 turn window and made a higher high at 4807.02 early Tuesday before pulling back. Just a corrective pullback in the SPX into year end will be bullish for an early 2022 rally.
• Gold – On the 55-day Fibonacci step out from its 11/3 low, gold made a multi-week high at $1821 before a quick 3-wave pullback to $1790 early Wednesday. Gold needs to quickly recover and take out $1835 to be taken seriously.
• Silver – Silver also made an early Tuesday high before pulling back in a quick 3-wave correction into early Wednesday – how we trade on Thursday will bi interesting.
• Bonds – Bonds got sold on Wednesday as the 10-yr US rate got to 1.56%.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil continues to hold up above $77 overnight as we approach the weekend New Moon.
• Dollar Index –The USD continues to oscillate around 96 in a tight range.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 12/27-12/28.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 28, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX did make a short-term top in the 12/27-12/28 turn window and started a correction. The rally from 12/20 made a solid EW 5-waves up on the hourly chart and we are now getting a consolidation. Bitcoin gave us a failed break out attempt to 52200 on Monday and now is languishing below its Person’s Pivot at 48554 Tuesday night.  Bitcoin is the speculative leader of the great stock market rally of 2020-2021 and its failed breakout should be concerning to the ardent bulls. Crude oil, however, rallied to test $77 early Tuesday and is bullishly holding up overnight. We remain in 50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, new Covid variant, etc.) and now a more aggressive Fed that wants to rein in inflation. Gold bounced early to test $1821 on the 55-day Fibonacci step out from 11/3 and then started a correction. The USD continues to oscillate around 96 as the 10-yr US rate coils below 1.50%.

12/28/21 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX rallied into the 12/27-12/28 turn window and completed an EW 5-wave rally on the hourly chart to make another all-time divergent high at 4807.02 before a correction. So far in December, the SPX has rallied past the Dec 4 eclipse, the Dec 11 planetary alignment and the 12/19 Venus retrograde and has continued to make higher highs which is bullish. The tech sector was once again the big enabler of today’s early new SPX rally high which allowed another divergent high. Historically, when the Fed has drained liquidity from the financial markets via cuts in bond purchases, big moves down have started in the stock market since 2008. Bitcoin wilted after its false break out higher to test 52200 on Monday and is languishing Tuesday night below 48000 – the question for us all is what is Bitcoin telling us about the health of Mr. Market here. Crude oil tested $77 early Tuesday and is holding up overnight – our favorite oil stocks, XOM, CVX and COP, all gave us a pretty good run since the 12/20 low. We still hold 50% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too great with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and a now more aggressive Fed targeting inflation. Another scary signal came from the early December news that the down payments of 20% of first home buyers came from Bitcoin profits – the US economy is highly-levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies. On its 55-day Fibonacci step out from the 11/3 low, gold spiked to test $1821 before starting a correction– we need to see gold get above $1835 to take it seriously. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months and the Fed quickened the reduction of financial liquidity from the US stock market at the December Fed meeting despite slowing global growth concerns. The USD has been oscillating around 96 for three days in a row.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX is in the process of making a historic top and we are living on borrowed time. The Russell 2000 has already given us a bear market signal – an EW 5-waves down on the daily chart into 12/20. The SPX blew off into the 12/27-12/28 turn window which includes the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 11/22 high.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – On the 55-day Fibonacci step out from its 11/3 low, gold made a multi-week high at $1821 before correcting. Gold needs to quickly recover and get above $1835 to be taken seriously here.

• Stocks – The SPX blew off into the 12/27-12/28 turn window and made a higher high at 4807.02 early Tuesday before pulling back. Just a corrective pullback in the SPX here will be bullish for an early 2022 rally.
• Gold – On the 55-day Fibonacci step out from its 11/3 low, gold made a multi-week high at $1821 before pulling back. Gold needs to quickly recover and take out $1835 to be taken seriously.
• Silver – Silver tested $23.48 early Tuesday before quickly shedding $.40 in a quick EW a-b-c correction.
• Bonds – Bonds appear close to bottoming an EW a-b-c decline on the daily chart.
• Crude Oil – After bottoming on the Full Moon Window on 12/20, crude oil has roared up impulsively to test $77 early Tuesday – this is bullish for the stock market.
• Dollar Index –The USD continues to oscillate around 96 in a tight range.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 12/27-12/28.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 27, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: With the help of Big Tech, the SPX exploded to a new all-time high at 4791.49 into Monday’s turn window. The rally from 12/20 is now a solid EW 5-waves up on the hourly chart and we now expect a consolidation. Bitcoin tested its R1 resistance pivot at 52200 and then rolled over to test its S2 pivot support at 49640 which implies a consolidation period for the SPX. Crude oil rallied to test $76.20 and is holding up overnight. We remain in 50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, new Covid variant, etc.) and now a more aggressive Fed that wants to rein in inflation. Gold dropped early to test $1803 but bullishly bounced back to test $1815 – a break above $1815 would make us short-term bullish on gold. Crude oil is bullishly holding above $75 overnight and that is bullish for the stock market. The USD continues to oscillate around 96 as the 10-yr US rate coils below 1.50%.

12/27/21 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX rallied into the 12/27 turn window and completed an EW 5-wave rally on the hourly chart to make an all-time divergent high at 4791.49. So far in December, the SPX has rallied past the Dec 4 eclipse, the Dec 11 planetary alignment and the 12/19 Venus retrograde and has continued to make higher highs which is bullish. Big Tech was once again the big enabler of today’s rally – NVIDIA, AAPL, MSFT, FB, .etc allowed the SPX to make a new divergent high. Historically, when the Fed has drained liquidity from the financial markets via cuts in bond purchases, big moves down have started in the stock market since 2008. Bitcoin tested 52200 during the day but fell below 50,000 overnight which implies some near-term weakness. Crude oil rallied to test $76.20 on Monday and is holding up above $75 overnight. We still hold 50% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too great with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and a now more aggressive Fed targeting inflation. Another scary signal came from early December news that the down payments of 20% of first home buyers came from Bitcoin profits – the US economy is highly-levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies. From the 12/21 low at $1785, gold tested $1815 on Monday and is coiling sideways in a bullish manner – the Big Range Day in gold and silver on Monday predicted volatility and we got that. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months and the Fed has quickened the reduction of financial liquidity from the US stock market at last week’s Fed meeting despite slowing global growth concerns. The USD has been oscillating around 96 for three days in a row.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX is in the process of making a historic top and we are living on borrowed time. The Russell 2000 has already given us a bear market signal – an EW 5-waves down on the daily chart. The SPX blew off into the 12/27 turn window which includes the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 11/22 high.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold tested $1785 on Tuesday and rallied up to test the $1815 high on Monday. Monday was a solar-lunar Big Range Day and brought us some volatility.

• Stocks – The SPX blew off into the 12/27 turn window which included the key 34-day Fibonacci step-out from the 11/22 SPX high on 12/26 – just a corrective pullback in the SPX here will be bullish for an early 2022 rally.
• Gold – Gold tested $1785 on Tuesday and then bounced higher to test $1815 on Monday where it started to coil sideways in a bullish manner. A break above $1815 would be short-term bullish for gold.
• Silver – Silver double-bottomed at $21.41 on 12/15 and tested $23.15 on Monday’s volatile session.
• Bonds – Bonds appear close to bottoming an EW a-b-c decline on the daily chart.
• Crude Oil – After bottoming on the Full Moon Window on 12/20, crude oil has roared up impulsively to test $76.20 on Monday – this is bullish for the stock market.
• Dollar Index –The USD continues to oscillate around 96 in a tight range.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 12/27.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - December 26, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Did we start the year-end rally when the SPX rallied from the 12/20 into the X-mas weekend? Maybe, but the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 11/22 high lands on 12/26 and that could give us a potential turn window on 12/27. The SPX tested its all-time high on Friday and actually made a closing high, but how we trade on Monday is key. On a bullish note for the SPX last week, Bitcoin rallied up in a EW 5-waves on the hourly chart and closed above the important 50000 level which is bullish for Bitcoin. Crude oil bottomed in the 12/20 Full Moon Timing Window and is rallying impulsively into Sunday night which is a positive for the SPX. Chairman Powell has raised inflation to his number one priority and our gut is telling us that the Fed will be forced to raise rates sooner rather than later – especially after the Bank of England raised their rates this month. We remain in 50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, new Covid variant, etc.) and now a more aggressive Fed that wants to rein in inflation. Gold bottomed at $1785 on Tuesday and is testing multi-week highs at $1815 Sunday night – a break above $1815 would make us short-term bullish on gold. closing above $70 is bullish for crude oil and the stock market. Bitcoin appears to be coiling under the key 50000 level – a US market close above 50000 would be bullish. After the decline into Tuesday at $1785, gold has bounced back to test $1815 Sunday night – gold and silver have a solar-lunar Big Range Day on Monday. The USD may have finished an EW a-b-c correction today on the 3-wave pullback to retest 96.

12/26/21 (Commentary for Sunday) The SPX tested the all-time high at 4743.83 going into Thursday’s close. How we trade on Monday is key for the year-end trend for stocks. The big range days up and down over the last two weeks in the NDX and SPX are indicative of a topping bull market – the “planetary alignment that clustered on both sides of the Moon” into 12/11 argued that an important top was made around 12/10 – the E-mini did make a divergent high on 12/16. Chairman Powell doubled the taper on 12/15 and put the market on notice for three rate hikes in 2022, but the US Fed is clearly behind the Bank of England which raised rates on 12/16. Historically, when the Fed has drained liquidity from the financial markets via cuts in bond purchases, big moves down have started in the stock market since 2008. Bitcoin made a weekly close above 50000 which is bullish for bitcoin and the SPX. Crude also rallied 5-waves higher from the 12/20 low which is bullish for the SPX. We still hold 50% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too great with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and a now more aggressive Fed targeting inflation. Another scary signal came from recent news that the down payments of 20% of first home buyers came from Bitcoin profits – the US economy is highly-levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies. From the Tuesday low at $1785, gold is testing $1815 Sunday night in a possible B-Wave – the Big Range Day in gold and silver on Monday is predicting volatility. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months and the Fed has quickened the reduction of financial liquidity from the US stock market at last week’s Fed meeting despite slowing global growth concerns. The USD may have bottomed an EW a-b-c decline Friday which retested 96.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX is in the process of making a historic top and we are living on borrowed time. The Russell 2000 has already given us a bear market signal – an EW 5-waves down on the daily chart. How the SPX trades on Monday will be key because 12/26 was the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 11/22 high.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold tested $1785 on Tuesday and has rallied up to test the $1815 high on Sunday night. Monday is a solar-lunar Big Range Day which should bring us some volatility.

• Stocks – The SPX bottomed on its 10-day trading cycle low on 12/20 and continued its rally into Thursday’s close which is close to the key 34-day Fibonacci step-out from the 11/22 SPX high on 12/26. How the SPX trades on 12/27 will determine the trend into year end.
• Gold – Gold tested $1785 on Tuesday and then bounced higher to test $1815 on Sunday night. Monday is solar-lunar Big Range Day which should bring volatility to gold and silver.
• Silver – Silver double-bottomed at $21.41 on 12/15 and is testing $23.00 Sunday evening. Monday should be a volatile day.
• Bonds – Bonds appear close to bottoming an EW a-b-c decline on the daily chart.
• Crude Oil – After bottoming on the Full Moon Window on 12/20, crude oil has roared up impulsively to test $74 on Sunday night – this is bullish for the stock market.
• Dollar Index –The USD may have ended an EW a-b-c correction to retest 96 on Thursday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 12/27.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 22, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: From the 12/20 low, the SPX is trying to rally into the Christmas weekend – is this the start of a year-end rally? The E-mini appears to have the best chance of making a new all-time high but our Option Premium Indicator spiked to 1.11 today, the highest in several days, which says that some bearish option positions were put on Wednesday. The SPX made an all-time high on 11/22 at 4743.83 and the 34-day Fibonacci step out falls on 12/26 – this date could be an important high or low. How we trade into 12/23-12/27 will tell us. The huge intra-day volatility that we have witnessed the past few weeks is consistent with a topping market - we still view this market as dangerous and urge that at least 50% cash be held. The stock market has been making a broadening top since the summer and the Russell 2000 has given us 5-waves down on the daily chart which is a BEAR MARKET SIGNAL. The impressive 12/11 alignment of Uranus, the Moon, Jupiter, Saturn, Neptune and Venus led to the all-time high reading of 4752.50 in the E-mini on 12/16 but this was a divergent high not confirmed by any other stock index. Chairman Powell has raised inflation to his number one priority and our gut is telling us that the Fed will be forced to raise rates sooner rather than later – especially after the Bank of England raised their rates this month. We remain in 50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, new Covid variant, etc.) and now a more aggressive Fed that wants to rein in inflation. Crude oil pulled back into the 12/18-12/20 Full Moon Timing Window and then reversed higher in 5-waves to test $73.27– closing above $70 is bullish for crude oil and the stock market. Bitcoin appears to be coiling under the key 50000 level – a US market close above 50000 would be bullish. After the decline into Tuesday at $1785, gold has bounced back to test $1810 – gold and silver rallied on today’s solar-lunar Big Range Day. The USD may have finished an EW a-b-c correction today on the 3-wave pullback to test 96.

12/22/21 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX continued its rally today after Monday’s low. How we trade into 12/23-12/27 is key for the year-end trend for stocks. The big range days up and down over the last two weeks in the NDX and SPX are indicative of a topping bull market – the “planetary alignment that clustered on both sides of the Moon” into 12/11 argued that an important top was made around 12/10 – the E-mini did make a divergent high on 12/16. Chairman Powell doubled the taper on 12/15 and put the market on notice for three rate hikes in 2022, but the US Fed is clearly behind the Bank of England which raised rates on 12/16. Historically, when the Fed has drained liquidity from the financial markets via cuts in bond purchases, big moves down have started in the stock market since 2008. Bitcoin is coiling under key resistance at 50000 – a US daily close above 50000 would be bullish for bitcoin and the SPX. The trendlines from the Covid low on 3/23 turned back the last speculative highs in TSLA, Bitcoin, and the IWM near the 11/4 New Moon and continue to remain as stiff resistance. We still hold 50% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too great with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and a now more aggressive Fed targeting inflation. Another scary signal came from recent news that the down payments of 20% of first home buyers came from Bitcoin profits – the US economy is highly-levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies. Gold tested $1815 on Friday, the 50% retracement of the big leg down into $1853, and then we declined in 5-waves down into Monday evening before bouncing up to test $1810 on Wednesday. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months and the Fed has quickened the reduction of financial liquidity from the US stock market at last week’s Fed meeting despite slowing global growth concerns. The USD may have bottomed an EW a-b-c decline today which tested 96.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX is in the process of making a historic top and we are living on borrowed time. The Russell 2000 has already given us a bear market signal – an EW 5-waves down on the daily chart. If we get just a 3-wave corrective rally from Tuesday, that will argue that the SPX trend is down into year end.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold tested $1815 on Friday and reversed down in 5-waves into Monday evening which is short-term bearish. Gold then rallied from $1785 on Tuesday to test $1810 on Wednesday’s solar-lunar Big Range Day. The GDX still looks shaky here.  

• Stocks – The SPX bottomed on its 10-day trading cycle low on Monday and continued its rally into Wednesday - has the holiday rally started?  That depends. Just a 3-wave corrective reversal higher in the SPX will imply a bearish trend into yearend – how we trade into 12/23-12/27 will enlighten us.
• Gold – Gold tested $1785 on Tuesday and then bounced higher to test $1810 on today’s solar-lunar Big Range Day. The GDX still looks shaky here and is lagging the SPX on the rally from Monday.
• Silver – Silver double-bottomed at $21.41 on 12/15 and is now testing $22.90 Wednesday evening. The rally still looks corrective to us.
• Bonds – Bonds may have finished an EW a-b-c correction on Tuesday.
• Crude Oil – After bottoming in the Full Moon Window on Monday, crude oil has roared up to test $73.27 on Wednesday – a close above $70 was bullish for the stock market.
• Dollar Index –The USD may have ended an EW a-b-c correction to test 96 on Wednesday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 12/20-12/21.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 21, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX bottomed in the 12/18-12/20 turn window and reversed sharply higher – is this the start of a holiday rally? How we trade into 12/23 will tell us. The huge intra-day volatility that we have witnessed the past few weeks is consistent with a topping market - we still view this market as dangerous and urge that at least 50% cash be held. The stock market has been making a broadening top since the summer and the Russell 2000 has given us 5-waves down on the daily chart which is a BEAR MARKET SIGNAL. The impressive 12/11 alignment of Uranus, the Moon, Jupiter, Saturn, Neptune and Venus led to the all-time high reading of 4752.50 in the E-mini on 12/16 but ths was not confirmed by any other stock index. Chairman Powell has raised inflation to his number one priority and our gut is telling us that the Fed will be forced to raise rates sooner rather than later – especially after the Bank of England raised theirs last week. We remain in 50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, new Covid variant, etc.) and now a more aggressive Fed that wants to rein in inflation. Crude oil pulled back into the 12/18-12/20 Full Moon Timing Window and then reversed higher to test $71.79 Tuesday evening – closing above $70 is bullish for the stock market. Bitcoin is testing 50000 from below Tuesday night but still remains below the key 50000 level. Gold declined in 5-waves on the hourly chart into Monday evening which was bearish and then the GDX greatly underperformed the SPX rally on Tuesday which was also bearish. Gold and gold stocks look bearish here to us and we are going into a Big Range Day from solar-lunar cycles on Wednesday. The USD continues to oscillate around 96.50 as the credit contraction led by China continues to give US long bonds a bid.

12/21/21 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX reversed sharply higher after Monday’s low. How we trade into 12/23 is key for the year-end trend for stocks. The big range days up and down  over the last two weeks in the NDX and SPX are indicative of a topping bull market – the “planetary alignment that clustered on both sides of the Moon” into 12/11 argued that an important top was made around 12/10. Chairman Powell doubled the taper on 12/15 and put the market on notice for three rate hikes in 2022, but the US Fed is clearly behind the Bank of England which raised rates on 12/16. Historically, when the Fed has drained liquidity from the financial markets via cuts in bond purchases, big moves down have started in the stock market since 2008. Bitcoin is testing key resistance at 50000 overnight but still remains below this horizontal resistance  – a daily close above 50000 would be bullish for stocks. The trendlines from the Covid low on 3/23 turned back the last speculative highs in TSLA, Bitcoin, and the IWM near the 11/4 New Moon and continue to remain as stiff resistance. We still hold 50% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too great with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and a now more aggressive Fed targeting inflation. Another scary signal came from recent news that the down payments of 20% of first home buyers came from Bitcoin profits – the US economy is highly-levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies. Gold tested $1815, the 50% retracement of the big leg down into $1853, and then we declined in 5-waves down into Monday evening – this is bearish for more decline. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months and the Fed has quickened the reduction of financial liquidity from the US stock market at last week’s Fed meeting despite slowing global growth concerns. The USD continues to hold up around 96.50 as the global credit contraction deepens.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX is in the process of making a historic top and we are living on borrowed time. The Russell 2000 has already given us a bear market signal – an EW 5-waves down on the daily chart. If we get just a 3-wave corrective rally from Tuesday, that will argue that the SPX trend is down into year end.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold tested $1815 on Friday and reversed down in 5-waves into Monday evening which is short-term bearish. After a corrective bounce to test $1800 early Tuesday, gold declined impulsively below Monday’s low – gold and the gold stocks look shaky here.

• Stocks – The SPX bottomed on its 10-day trading cycle low on Monday and roared higher on Tuesday - has the holiday rally started?  That depends. Just a 3-wave corrective reversal higher in the SPX will imply a bearish trend into yearend – how we trade into 12/23 will enlighten us.
• Gold – Gold tested $1815 resistance on Friday and then traced out an EW 5-wave decline into Monday evening that looked bearish. After testing $1800 early Tuesday, gold fell impulsively below Monday’s low and the GDX looked weak– we added some GLD puts for a hedge.
• Silver – Silver double-bottomed at $21.41 on 12/15 and then tested its R1 resistance pivot at $22.83 early Tuesday. Silver looked stronger than gold today.
• Bonds – The bonds pulled back again today after the 10-yr rate tested 1.48%.
• Crude Oil – After bottoming in the Full Moon Window on Monday, crude oil roared up to test $71.79 on Tuesday – a close above $70 was bullish for the stock market.
• Dollar Index –The USD continues to hold up around 96.50 as the global credit contraction gives the US buck a bid.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 12/20-12/21.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 20, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The 10-day trading cycle and the 12/18-12/20 Full Moon Timing Window + Venus retrograde argues that we should make a low today or early Tuesday. We are looking for a bounce to begin on Tuesday and the nature of the rally will tell us a lot – if the SPX rally is corrective, that will be bearish. We still view this market as dangerous and urge that at least 50% cash be held. The stock market has been making a broadening top since the summer and the Russell 2000 has given us 5-waves down on the daily chart which is a BEAR MARKET SIGNAL. The impressive 12/11 alignment of Uranus, the Moon, Jupiter, Saturn, Neptune and Venus led to the all-time high reading of 4752.50 in the E-mini.  Chairman Powell has raised inflation to his number one priority and our gut is telling us that the Fed will be forced to raise rates sooner rather than later – especially after the Bank of England raised theirs last week. We remain in 50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, new Covid variant, etc.) and now a more aggressive Fed that wants to rein in inflation. Crude oil pulled back into the 12/18-12/20  Full Moon Timing Window and is reversing higher. Bitcoin is rallying overnight to test its R2 resistance pivot at 48640 but still remains below the key 50000 level. Gold continued its retracement after testing $1815 on quad-witching Friday, but we need a follow through day higher to convince us of the bullish intent of this market. The USD continues to oscillate around 96.50 as the credit contraction led by China continues to give US long bonds a bid.

12/20/21 (Commentary for Monday) The 12/18-12/20 turn window is coming in as a low and we expect some kind of SPX reversal higher by early Tuesday. Just a 3-wave corrective bounce by the SPX will be bearish for the stock market and will argue for a bearish trend into year end. The big range days over the last two weeks in the NDX and SPX are indicative of a topping bull market – the “planetary alignment that clustered on both sides of the Moon” into 12/11 argued that an important top was made on 12/10. Chairman Powell doubled the taper on Wednesday and put the market on notice for three rate hikes in 2022 on Wednesday, but the US Fed is clearly behind the Bank of England which raised rates on Thursday. Historically, when the Fed has drained liquidity from the financial markets via cuts in bond purchases, big moves down have started in the stock market since 2008. Bitcoin is testing 48460, its R2 resistance pivot overnight   but still remains below 50000 – this is a bearish sign for the stock market. The trendlines from the Covid low on 3/23 turned back the last speculative highs in TSLA, Bitcoin, and the IWM near the 11/4 New Moon and continue to remain as stiff resistance. We still hold 50% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too great with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and a now more aggressive Fed targeting inflation. Another scary signal came from recent news that the down payments of 20% of first home buyers came from Bitcoin profits – the US economy is highly-levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies. Gold tested $1815 on quad-witching Friday and is giving us a corrective retracement. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months and the Fed has quickened the reduction of financial liquidity from the US stock market at last week’s Fed meeting despite slowing global growth concerns. The USD continues to hold up around 96.50 as the global credit contraction deepens.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX is in the process of making a historic top and we are living on borrowed time. The Russell 2000 has already given us a bear market signal – an EW 5-waves down on the daily chart. If we get just a 3-wave corrective bounce from Tuesday, that will argue that the SPX trend is down into year end.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold tested $1815 on Friday before a retracement down into the 12/18-12/20 Full Moon Timing Window. We need gold to give us a follow-through day higher to prove its bullish conviction.

• Stocks – The SPX is dropping into its 10-day cycle low on Monday or early Tuesday – the Tuesday after a monthly expiration is a turning point day. Just a 3-wave corrective reversal higher in the SPX will imply a bearish trend into year end.
• Gold – Gold tested $1815 resistance on Friday and pulled back into the Full Moon Timing Window on Monday – we need to get a bullish follow-through day Tuesday to take this market serious after over a year of consolidation.
• Silver – Silver double-bottomed at $21.41 on Wednesday before reversing up to test $22.70 early Friday. Like gold, silver pulled back into the Full Moon Timing Window on Monday but is reversing higher overnight.
• Bonds – The bonds pulled back today after the 10-yr rate tested 1.42%.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil plunged to $66 into Monday’s Full Moon Timing Window  before a sharp reversal higher overnight to test $70.
• Dollar Index –The USD continues to hold up around 96.50 as the global credit contraction gives the US buck a bid.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 12/20-12/21.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - December 19, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The 10-day trading cycle and the 12/18-12/20 Full Moon Timing Window + Venus retrograde argues for a low on Monday. Also, our Option Premium Ratio indicator rallied from .94 to 1.05 on Friday which argues for lower prices on Monday as well.  Will the important 12/18-12/20 Full Moon Timing Window + Venus retrograde be a market high or low – our bias is still for a market low on 12/20 and some kind of reversal higher on Tuesday – the Tuesday after a monthly expiration is a turn window in our work (courtesy of Chris Cadbury). The impressive 12/11 alignment of Uranus, the Moon, Jupiter, Saturn, Neptune and Venus led to the all-time high reading of 4752.50 in the E-mini.  Chairman Powell has raised inflation to his number one priority and our gut is telling us that the Fed will be forced to raise rates sooner rather than later – especially after the Bank of England raised theirs last week. We remain in 50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, new Covid variant, etc.) and now a more aggressive Fed that wants to rein in inflation. Crude oil pulled back into the 12/18 Full Moon while oil stocks got smacked down. Bitcoin tested 45000 again on Friday and bounced but remains below the key 50000 level . Gold continued its rally and tested $1815 before a pullback on quad-witching Friday, and the GDX started to lead after the GDX/GLD ratio tested its 9/29 low. Gold made a multi-week low on Wednesday as the E-mini made an all-time high early Thursday. The USD bounced hard to test 96.70 on Friday and we believe that both the USD and gold are poised to rally here as the global credit contraction led by China chugs along.

12/19/21 (Commentary for Sunday) Our bias is that the 12/18-12/20 turn window will be a low for the SPX.  A lower low on Monday is predicted but the pattern of the reversal higher on Tuesday will tell us the short-term trend into year end. The SPX reversed down into Friday in 5-waves on the hourly and that looks like the start of a C-Wave down with a symmetry target below the 12/1 low at 4495 by the 12/18-12/20 turn window. The big range days over the last two weeks in the NDX and SPX are indicative of a topping bull market – the “planetary alignment that clustered on both sides of the Moon” into 12/11 argued that an important top was made on 12/10. Chairman Powell doubled the taper on Wednesday and put the market on notice for three rate hikes in 2022 on Wednesday, but the US Fed is clearly behind the Bank of England which raised rates on Thursday. The US Fed is definitely behind the curve on interest rates and the tech sector knows this. Historically, when the Fed has drained liquidity from the financial markets via cuts in bond purchases, big moves down have started in the stock market since 2008. After testing 50000 yesterday, Bitcoin tested 45000 on Friday and bounced over the weekend but still remains below 50000 – this is a bearish sign for the stock market. The trendlines from the Covid low on 3/23 turned back the last speculative highs in TSLA, Bitcoin, and the IWM near the 11/4 New Moon and continue to remain as stiff resistance. We still hold 50% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too great with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and a now more aggressive Fed targeting inflation. Another scary signal came from recent news that the down payments of 20% of first home buyers came from Bitcoin profits – the US economy is highly-levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies. Gold made a multi-week low on Wednesday at $1853 as the E-mini made an all-time high and reversed to test the 50% retracement at $1815 on Friday before a back test of $1800. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months and the Fed quickened the reduction of financial liquidity from the US stock market at this week’s Fed meeting despite slowing global growth concerns. The USD spiked to 96.70 on Friday and is holding up into Sunday night.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – On Thursday, the SPX made a B-Wave test of the 11/22 high at 4743 before reversing down impulsively into Friday. We may see a symmetry correction which undercuts the 12/1 low at 4495 Tuesday. The Russell 2000 gave us an EW 5-wave decline on the daily chart into Wednesday which is a bear market signal.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold bottomed its 20-day cycle low at $1753 Wednesday and then cleared $1800 late Thursday– we could see a strong bounce above $1800 into late December.

• Stocks – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 11/22 high at 4743 early Thursday and then reversed down in 5-waves into Friday on the hourly chart – more down is likely into Monday/Tuesday.
• Gold – Gold bottomed its 20-day cycle low at 1753 and then reversed up to the 50% retracement at $1815 before correcting– we’re looking for a strong bounce into late December.
• Silver – Silver double-bottomed at $21.41 on Wednesday before reversing up to test $22.70 early Friday. The silver stocks are coming to life which is a positive.
• Bonds – The bonds are testing 163’10 Sunday night as the E-mini futures get sold.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil is plunging below $68 Sunday night into the Full Moon Timing Window – this is a sell signal for the stock market.
• Dollar Index –The USD spiked to 96.70 on Friday and is holding up into Sunday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 12/19-12/21.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 16, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: After a strong post-FOMC market close on Wednesday, the E-mini made an all-time divergent high pre-market at 4743.25. However, the SPX and NDX failed to make new highs and rolled over led by the tech stocks as the Bank  of England raised its key interest rate. Will the important 12/18-12/20 Full Moon Timing Window + Venus retrograde be a market high or low – our bias is still for a market low on 12/20. On Saturday, we saw an impressive alignment of Uranus, the Moon, Jupiter, Saturn, Neptune and Venus and this could signal that a major top is at hand. Chairman Powell has raised inflation to his number one priority and our gut is telling us that the Fed will be forced to raise rates sooner rather than later. We remain in 50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, new Covid variant, etc.) and now a more aggressive Fed that wants to rein in inflation. Crude oil is still holding up here and energy stocks got a bid today. After testing 50000 Wednesday, Bitcoin rolled over again and looks weak. Gold continued its rally and tested $1800 and this time the GDX started to lead after the GDX/GLD ratio tested its 9/29 low. Gold made a 20-day cycle low on Wednesday. The USD continues to sub-divide down here and should give us an undercut low below 95.85 – the Bank of England raised rates and that should help rally the British pound against the US buck.

12/16/21 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 11/22 high at 4743.83 but then reversed down as the tech sector got hit. Our bias is that the 12/18-12/20 turn window will be a low. The SPX reversal down today in 5-waves on the hourly and that looks like the start of a C-Wave down with a symmetry target below the 12/1 low at 4495 by the 12/18-12/20 turn window. The big range days over the last two weeks in the NDX and SPX are indicative of a topping bull market – the “planetary alignment that clustered on both sides of the Moon” into Saturday argued that an important top was made on 12/10. Chairman Powell doubled the taper and put the market on notice for three rate hikes in 2022 on Wednesday, but it was the Bank of England raising rates this morning that started the slam down in tech stocks. The US Fed is definitely behind the curve on interest rates and the tech sector know this. Historically, when the Fed has drained liquidity from the financial markets via cuts in bond purchases, big moves down have started in the stock market since 2008. After testing 50000 yesterday, Bitcoin rolled over again today and looks weak – this is a bearish sign for the stock market. The trendlines from the Covid low on 3/23 turned back the last speculative highs in TSLA, Bitcoin, and the IWM near the 11/4 New Moon and continue to remain as stiff resistance. We still hold 50% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too great with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and a now more aggressive Fed targeting inflation. Another scary signal came from recent news that the down payments of 20% of first home buyers came from Bitcoin profits – the US economy is highly-levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies. Gold made a 20-day cycle low Wednesday and then proceeded to test $1800 Thursday as the USD got hit. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months and the Fed quickened the reduction of financial liquidity from the US stock market at this week’s Fed meeting despite slowing global growth concerns. The USD spiked to 96.90 after the FOMC minutes before pulling back into Thursday night and testing 95.84.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – Today, the SPX made a B-Wave test of the 11/22 high at 4743 before reversing down impulsively. We may see a symmetry correction which undercuts the 12/1 low at 4495 by 12/20. The Russell 2000 gave us an EW 5-wave decline on the daily chart into Wednesday which is a bear market signal.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold bottomed its 20-day cycle low at $1753 Wednesday and then cleared $1800 late Thursday– we could see a strong bounce above $1800 into late December.

• Stocks – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 11/22 high at 4743 early Thursday and then started to reverse down impulsively  – more down is likely into Monday.
• Gold – Gold bottomed its 20-day cycle low at 1753 and then reversed up above $1800 by Thursday evening– we’re looking for a strong bounce into late December.
• Silver – Silver double-bottomed at $21.41 on Wednesday before reversing up above $22.50 Thursday night.
• Bonds – Bonds bounced today as the 10-yr US rate pulled back to 1.42%.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil continued to hold up today and the XLE stocks got a bid. Uranium stocks were especially strong early Thursday.
• Dollar Index –The USD spiked to 96.90 after the Fed minutes but then fell to test 95.85 Thursday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week is 12/13 and 12/15.