All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 30, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Late Monday evening, just after we posted our blog, news leaked from Powell’s prepared statement for Tuesday morning that the Fed’s main focus is now on fighting inflation. The E-mini started to sharply rollover around 11:00 PM and turned a potentially bullish pattern into a bearish one. The Fed intends to make inflation its number one target and Powell hinted that a more aggressive taper would be discussed at the December Fed meeting. So essentially, the SPX got hit with a one-two punch from the Covid-omicron and a more aggressive Fed today and we got a screaming sell off.  The $TRIN closed > 2 which is a buy signal for early Wednesday and the Option Premium Ratio dropped from .88 to .72 which is also a buy signal. We should see a rebound attempt from the NDX and SPX into the 12/3 NFP jobs report which is in the 12/3-12/6 New Moon Timing Window. Both the NYA (NYSE Composite) and the IWM finished an EW 5-wave decline on the daily chart on heavy volume days today – we could see a retracement bounce into the weekend New Moon. The SPX may have finished just a 3-wave correction on Tuesday and looks poised to test highs into the 12/3-12/6 New Moon Timing Window. The ADP report early Wednesday and the NFP jobs report early Friday will be key reports for this week. We remain in 50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, new Covid variant, etc.) and now a more aggressive Fed that wants to rein in inflation. Crude oil was hit by the Fed’s more aggressive stance on inflation but may have finished just a 3-wave correction to test $64.43 today. Gold started the session with a 4^th wave bounce above $1800 but reversed down sharply when Powell started his hawkish testimony. The USD declined in 5-waves on the hourly chart before spiking higher to 96.61 after the start of Powell’s testimony.

11/30/21 (Commentary for Tuesday) Leaked info from Powell’s statement caused the E-mini to roll over last night. The swing of the Fed’s focus to target inflation over further employment gains hit the SPX hard on Tuesday. However, the $TRIN closed > 2.0 and that argues for a bullish day on Wednesday. Chairman Powell said that he will present a “more aggressive tapering plan” to the new FOMC at the December meeting. The SPX traced out a 3-wave correction into Tuesday  and should give us at least a strong open early Wednesday – a failed rally into Wednesday’s close would be very bearish. Bitcoin held up better than the SPX on Tuesday – and this should be encouraging to the stock market bulls. Still, the trendlines from the Covid low on 3/23 turned back the last speculative highs in TSLA, Bitcoin, and the IWM near the 11/4 New Moon and then the broad market (NYSE Composite) gave us an EW 5-waves down on the daily chart into Tuesday – this has bearish implications for the stock market after a retracement rally into the weekend. We still hold 50% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too great with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and a now more aggressive Fed targeting inflation. Another scary signal came from news that the down payments of 20% of first home buyers came from Bitcoin profits last week – the US economy is highly-levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies. Gold gave us a 4^th wave bounce early Tuesday but its price reversed down sharply to $1771 after Powell’s hawkish tone. Crude oil fell to $64.43 before bouncing over Person’s pivot Tuesday night at $67.54. Bonds rallied on Tuesday despite the hawkish tone taken by Chairman Powell on inflation. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months but the Fed looks determined to quicken the withdrawal of financial liquidity from the US stock market at the December meeting despite slowing global growth concerns. The USD declined in 5-waves on the hourly chart going into Powell’s testimony but did get a spike higher to 96.61 which petered out  into the close.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) –The SPX may have finished a 3-wave correction from 11/15 on Tuesday, but the Russell 2000 and the NYSE Composite gave us an EW 5-wave decline into Tuesday which is bearish after a potential retracement rally into the weekend.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold gave us a 4^th wave bounce to $1811 early Tuesday before Chairman Powell’s hawkish testimony reversed gold down to test multi-week lows at $1771 – a break below $1758 will be very bearish in our work.

• Stocks – The SPY and the QQQ may have ended a 3-wave correction into Friday – we are inclined to buy early weakness in the SPY on Tuesday morning.
• Gold – Gold gave us a 4^th wave bounce to $1811 before being slammed down in a 5^th wave after Powell’s hawkish statement. An undercut low below $1758 would be bearish.
• Silver – Silver took out last week’s low below $23 and tested $22.65 on Tuesday.  
• Bonds – Bonds ended Tuesday in a rally despite the hawkish tone from Chairman Powell.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil may have finished an EW a-b-c correction at $64.43 and we may see a bounce on Wednesday.
• Dollar Index –The USD declined in 5-waves on the hourly chart into Chairman Powell’s statement and then briefly spiked to 96.64.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 12/3-12/6, the New Moon Timing Window.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 29, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX and NDX roared back to life early Monday as investors saw Friday’s Covid selloff as a buying opportunity. The “no shutdown” comment from President Biden helped spark a rally today. The QQQ gave us a “positive volume reversal day” which is bullish and the Option Premium Ratio gave us a higher high over Friday (.49, .65, .82, .83, .88) and is building a bullish “wall of worry”.  The SPX may have finished a 3-wave correction into Friday and looks poised to test highs into the 12/3-12/6 New Moon Timing Window. The ADP report early Wednesday and the NFP jobs report early Friday will be key reports for this week. Our bias is to buy SPY weakness early Tuesday for a run to test highs into the weekend New Moon. We remain in 50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, new Covid variant, etc.) and the euphoric retail option speculation going on in US markets which looks terminal. Crude oil gave us a bullish 5-waves higher from Friday’s low and appears to be coiling for a run higher into the 12/3-12/5 New Moon Timing Window. Bitcoin rallied in 5-waves on the hourly chart and could also be coiling for a run into the weekend New Moon. Gold stayed in correction mode today and has a monthly tendency to decline into Friday’s NFP jobs report. The USD made a new high for the year at 96.94 last week and gave us a correction into Monday.

11/29/21 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX may have ended a quick EW a-b-c correction on Friday after the announcement of the new Covid variant. We are looking to buy dips early Tuesday in the SPY for a run to test highs into the 12/3-12/6 New Moon Timing Window. The Option Premium Ratio continues to build a wall of worry after Monday’s rally day which is bullish and the QQQ gave us a Positive Volume Reversal Day on Monday which is bullish. The stock market has become resilient after a series of Covid variants and especially after President Biden stated “no shutdowns” on Monday. The SPX traced out a bullish pattern on Monday and appears to be coiling for a run to test highs into the weekend New Moon. Bitcoin bounced on Monday and may be coiling for a run into the weekend New Moon – a failed rally this week, however, will have bearish implications for the broad market. The trendlines from the Covid low on 3/23 turned back the last speculative highs in TSLA, Bitcoin, and the IWM on the 11/8 Full Moon and then the broad market (NYSE Composite) went into correction mode. We still hold 50% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too great with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and the wildly-euphoric retail trade volume in call options. Another scary signal came from news that the down payments of 20% of first home buyers came from Bitcoin profits last week – the US economy is highly-levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies. Gold gave us lower lows today and appears to be consolidating into Friday’s NFP jobs report which is near the 12/4 New Moon. Crude oil rallied in 5-waves from Friday’s low at $67.40 and is coiling for a run into the weekend New Moon. Bonds rallied on Friday’s session as global growth estimates got paired back and is rallying overnight Monday to test Friday’s high. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months but renewed global growth fears could impact the Fed’s decision on the rate of tapering at the December meeting – the earlier December PPI and CPI inflation reports will be key. The USD rallied to new highs for the year at 96.94 last week and then corrected into overnight Monday.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) –The NDX and SPX may have finished a 3-wave correction from 11/15 on Friday. The SPX may be coiling for a run into the 12/3-12/6 New Moon Timing Window.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold trended lower from 11/15 at $1879 into $1777 on 11/24 but only gave us a 3-wave corrective bounce into Friday – a break below $1758 will be very bearish in our work.

• Stocks – The SPY and the QQQ may have ended a 3-wave correction into Friday – we are inclined to buy early weakness in the SPY on Tuesday morning.
• Gold – Gold only gave us a 3-wave bounce from its 11/23 turn window into Friday so an undercut low into Friday’s NFP jobs report is possible. An undercut low below $1758 would be bearish.
• Silver – Silver took out last week’s low below $23.  
• Bonds – Bonds railed in 5-waves from early Wednesday to Friday’s close and just did a quick correction early Monday.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil rallied in 5-waves from Friday’s low and appears to be coiling for a run into the weekend New Moon.
• Dollar Index –The USD made new highs for the year last week at 96.94 and then has corrected into overnight Monday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 12/3-12/5, the New Moon Timing Window.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - November 28, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: As we suspected, the SPX rally into late Wednesday was just a B-Wave of a correction that started after the reappointment of Chairman Powell on 11/15. The close of the VIX over its upper Bollinger Band on Tuesday and the spike in the Option Premium Ratio to .82 on Wednesday did warn us of potential selling on the normally bullish Friday after the Thanksgiving Day holiday. Financial astrologer, Tim Bost, did warn that the planetary opposition of the Sun to the Transneptunian planet, Admetos, could be “very contractionary” for the stock market on Friday. The South African announcement of a new Covid variant, Omicron,  hit the global markets like a ton of bricks on Friday – but what now? At a minimum, we should expect more selling early Monday as many who were not able to participate in Friday’s market action are heard. Tom Lee on CNBC mentioned on Wednesday night that the down payments of 20% of first home purchases were paid for by Bitcoin profits – this is a scary indictment of how fragile the US economy is and how dependent it is on widespread speculation. We remain in 50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, new Covid variant, etc.) and the euphoric retail option speculation going on in US markets. Crude energy prices took a hit on Friday on renewed global growth fears but natural gas prices spiked to multiple week highs on the cold temperatures greeting holiday travelers. Bitcoin remains entrenched in its down channel and tested 53600 early Friday. Gold only gave us a corrective bounce from its important turn day on 11/23 and closed weak on Friday – an undercut low below $1777 is possible Sunday night/early Monday . The USD made a new high for the year at 96.94 last Wednesday and gave us a correction into Friday’s close.

11/28/21 (Commentary for Sunday) After a B-Wave bounce into Wednesday’s close, the  SPX and NDX continued their corrective action on Friday by plunging in a C-Wave down after the announcement of a new Covid variant hit the tape Thursday night. We saw warning signs in the price action of the VIX and the spike in our Option Premium Ratio to .82 on Wednesday’s close but we did not add any hedges. Financial astrologer Tim Bost warned of a powerful opposition of the Sun to the Transneptunian planet, Admetos, on Wednesday that could cause a big stock market contraction like Saturn on steroids. For early Monday, we expect more selling in the SPX as those on holiday on Friday get to react to the news of the new Covid variant, Omicron. Just a corrective bounce from early SPX weakness on Monday will be bearish for steeper decline. The Tuesday after a monthly option expiration last week is a turn window in our work, but all we got was a bounce in the SPX, NDX and IWM into Wednesday. Bitcoin remained entrenched in its down channel on Friday and made a lower low at 53600. The trendlines from the Covid low on 3/23 turned back the last speculative highs in TSLA, Bitcoin, and the IWM on the 11/8 Full Moon and then the broad market (NYSE Composite) went into correction mode. We still hold 50% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too great with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and the wildly-euphoric retail trade volume in call options. Another scary signal came from news that the down payments of 20% of first home buyers came from Bitcoin profits last week – the US economy is highly-levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies. Gold only gave us a 3-wave corrective bounce from its 11/23 turn window into Friday and then gave us a weak close that could undercut its $1777 low on Sunday night or early Monday. How the PM sector trades on Monday will be key. Crude oil got hit Friday on the renewed Covid threat to global growth but natural gas finished Friday at multi-week highs. Bonds rallied on Friday’s session as global growth estimates got paired back. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months but renewed global growth fears could impact the Fed’s decision on the rate of tapering at the December meeting – the earlier December PPI and CPI inflation reports will be key. The USD rallied to new highs for the year at 96.94 and then sold off into Friday’s close.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) –The NDX and SPX finished an EW 5-wave advance on the daily chart on 11/15 and started a correction that continued into with a bang into Friday. The Tuesday after a monthly option expiration on 11/23 was a turn window in our work but the SPX, NDX and IWM all made just a B-Wave bounce into Wednesday’s close that forecasted the C-Wave down on Friday.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold trended lower from 11/15 at $1879 into $1777 on Wednesday but only gave us a 3-wave corrective bounce into Friday – a break below $1758 will be very bearish in our work.

• Stocks – The SPY and the QQQ both ended a B-Wave bounce into Wednesday’s close that led to a sharp C-Wave down on Friday – we expect early selling on Monday’s open. Just a corrective rally attempt in the SPX before noon will be bearish for lower prices.
• Gold – Gold only gave us a 3-wave bounce from its 11/23 turn window into Friday so an undercut low into Monday is possible.
• Silver – Silver made a weekly low on Friday but gold did not for a case of bullish divergence for gold.  
• Bonds – Bonds railed in 5-waves from early Wednesday to Friday’s close.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil got hit hard on Friday’s global growth fears but natural gas closed at multi-week highs above $5.50.
• Dollar Index –The USD made a new highs for the year today at 96.94 – the recent rise in the USD has pressured both gold and Bitcoin down.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 11/29.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 24, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX and NDX peaked near the announcement of Chairman Powell’s reappointment early Monday and started a correction that continued into Wednesday – today’s rally may have been part of a B-Wave bounce that could run into Friday’s shortened session before rolling over in a C-Wave down into next week. Tom Lee on CNBC mentioned that the down payments of 20% of first home purchases were paid for by Bitcoin profits – this is a scary indictment of how fragile the US economy is and how dependent it is to widespread speculation. We remain in 50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, etc.) and the euphoric retail option trading going on in US markets. On a macro level, our bias is that accelerating energy inflation (crude oil and natural gas) will continue until the early December CPI report and that will pressure Powell and the FOMC to rethink their interest rate policy moves sooner than later – this could put an end to the stock bull market before year end. Despite Biden’s best efforts, crude oil tested $79 overnight Tuesday and remained elevated today. Bitcoin, the best inflation hedge of the year by far, appears to be entrenched in a down channel, but will it get a 2017-style pop after Thanksgiving Day from millennials educating parents about their Bitcoin wealth. Gold continued its correction from $1879 last week and spiked down to test its S1 support pivot at$1777 on Wednesday before rebounding. The USD made new highs for the year at 96.94 on Wednesday as the 10-yr US rate ran up to 1.69%.

11/24/21 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX and NDX continued their corrective action and today’s rally appeared to be a B-wave higher of an ongoing correction that could last into Friday’s shortened trading session before rolling over in a C-Wave down into next week. The Tuesday after a monthly expiration is a turn window in our work and we did get a bounce in the SPX, NDX and IWM into Wednesday. Bitcoin continued its bounce higher from Tuesday but remains entrenched in its down channel so far – will we get a post-Thanksgiving Day rally from millennials educating their parents about their newly created Bitcoin wealth? We still hold 50% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too great with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and the wildly-euphoric retail trade volume in call options. Another scary signal came from news that the down payments of 20% of first home buyers came from Bitcoin profits – the US economy is highly-levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies.  Gold made a high last week at $1879 and fell nearly $100 to $1777 early Wednesday after Comex gold option expiration and its 55-day Fibonacci step out from 9/29. We may have seen a short-term low in the PM sector Wednesday and some colleagues took a short-term trade on JNUG and GOLD. Crude oil remained elevated around $79 Wednesday night after Biden announced an international effort to lower prices that looks inadequate. Bonds sold off to multi-week lows early Wednesday as the 10-yr rate rallied to 1.69% before pulling back. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months - US liquidity conditions were tightening in advance of the Fed taper as US Excess Liquidity measures continue to roll over and that predicts a “compression” in the S&P 500 P/E ratio later this year and a possible end to the 12-yr bull market from 2009 in Q4 2021 or early 2022. The USD rallied to new highs for the year at 96.94 – the rising USD has depressed the price of Bitcoin and gold in the past week.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) –The NDX and SPX finished an EW 5-wave advance on the daily chart and started a correction on Monday that continued into Wednesday. The Tuesday after a monthly expiration is a turn window in our work and the SPX, NDX and IWM all made a B-Wave bounce from Tuesday that could last into Friday’s shortened session before a C-Wave down.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold trended lower from last week at $1879 into $1777 early Wednesday – we may have seen a trading low in the PM sector early today.

• Stocks – The SPY and the QQQ both rallied from Tuesday and the corrective looking bounce could continue into Friday before reversing in a C-Wave down into next week.
• Gold – From last week’s high at $1879, gold trended almost $100 lower to test $1777 early Wednesday, right after the 11/23 Comex option expiration and the 55-day Fibonacci step out from the key low on 9/29. We added calls on Barrick Gold for a bounce into Friday.
• Silver – Silver finished an EW a-b-c correction from last week’s high on Tuesday and gave us bullish divergence with gold this morning as it refused to go lower with gold.
• Bonds – Bonds continued their decline from 162 on Monday as the 10-yr US rate rallied to 1.69% this morning before a pullback.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil rallied to test $79 after Biden announced his plan for an international effort to lower prices. Both crude oil and natural gas could be primed for another leg higher as tensions mount between Russia and the Ukraine.
• Dollar Index –The USD made a new highs for the year today at 96.94 – the recent rise in the USD has pressured both gold and Bitcoin down.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 11/23.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 23, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX and NDX peaked near the announcement of Chairman Powell’s reappointment early Monday and continued their decline into Tuesday which is a turning point day in our work. We remain in 50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, etc.) and the euphoric retail option trading going on in US markets. Interestingly, the Russell 2000 (IWM) may have made a low early Tuesday near the 11/19-11/22 Full Moon Timing Window and the oversold NYMO is a buy signal. On a macro level, our bias is that accelerating inflation will continue until the early December CPI report and that will pressure Powell and the FOMC to rethink their interest rate policy moves sooner than later – this could put an end to the stock bull market before year end. After a Q3 slump, the US economy is getting a post-Delta bounce and the start of the October blowoff in the Russell 2000 may have pulled forward the “January effect” into November/December. Crude oil rallied today and tested $79 overnight Tuesday despite Biden’s effort to lower global prices. Bitcoin, the best inflation hedge of the year by far, appears to be entrenched in a down channel. Gold continued its correction from $1879 early 11/16 and spiked down to $1781 on Tuesday’s Comex option expiration which was the 55-day Fibonacci step out from the 9/29 low. The USD made new highs for the year at 96.60 on Tuesday as the 10-yr US rate ran up to 1.67%.

11/23/21 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX and NDX continued their declines into early Tuesday as the new 52-week lows continued to outpace the new 52-week highs. In symmetry, the Russell 2000 (IWM) made an undercut low of Monday’s session. The Tuesday after a monthly expiration is a turn window and we expect a reversal higher in the broad-based Russell 2000(IWM) by early Wednesday. The NYMO closed below its lower Bollinger Band for a second consecutive day on Monday and that is a Buy Signal for the Russell 2000.  The SPX has entered a period of bullish seasonality into the end of November – one of the most bullish times of the year. Bitcoin bounced on Tuesday but remains entrenched in its down channel so far - our expected reversal higher after the Full Moon has failed to materialize so far. We still hold 50% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too great with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and the wildly-euphoric retail trade volume in call options. Gold made a high on 11/16 at $1879 and tested $1781 early Tuesday on the 11/23 Comex gold option expiration and 55-day Fibonacci step out. We may have seen a short-term low in the PM sector today and some colleagues took a short-term trade on JNUG and GOLD. Crude oil tested $79 Tuesday night after Biden announced an international effort to lower prices. Bonds sold off to multi-week lows as the the 10-yr rate rallied to 1.67% by the end of the session. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months - US liquidity conditions were tightening in advance of the Fed taper as US Excess Liquidity measures continue to roll over and that predicts a “compression” in the S&P 500 P/E ratio later this year and a possible end to the 12-yr bull market from 2009 in Q4 2021 or early 2022. The USD is rallying to new highs for the year at 96.61 Monday night – the rising USD has depressed the price of Bitcoin and gold.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) –The NDX and SPX finished an EW 5-wave advance on the daily chart and started a correction on Monday. The Tuesday after a monthly expiration is a turn window in our work and we may have started a bounce higher in the IWM. There is bullish seasonality for US stocks into the end of November and we could see at least a bounce in the SPX into Friday.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold has trended lower from its 11/16 high at $1879 into $1781 on today’s Comex option expiration which is also the 55-day Fibonacci step from the 9/29 low.

• Stocks – The SPY and the QQQ both completed EW 5-wave rally patterns early Monday and started a correction that continued into Tuesday. The NYMO made back-to-back closes below its lower Bollinger Band into Monday which is a Buy Signal for the stock market for at least a seasonal bounce into Friday.
• Gold – From Tuesday’s high at $1879, gold trended lower to test $1781 on the 11/23 Comex option expiration which is the 55-day Fibonacci step out from the key low on 9/29. We added calls on Barrick Gold for a bounce into Friday.
• Silver – Weakness in the silver stocks on Friday argued for more down into the 11/23 Comex option expiration. A test of the S1 pivot at 23.18 is possible early Wednesday.
• Bonds – Bonds continued their decline from 162 on Monday as the 10-yr US rate rallied to 1.67%.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil rallied to test $79 after Biden announced his plan for an international effort to lower prices.
• Dollar Index –The USD made new highs for the year at 96.60 – the recent rise in the USD has pressured both gold and Bitcoin down.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 11/23.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 22, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The White House announcement to reappointment Chairman Powell came at 9:00 AM EDT and gave the US markets a strong open but a “sell the news” response developed as the SPX and NDX both completed an EW 5-wave up pattern around 10:30 AM EDT on their daily charts and then closed down for the day. More post-earnings rally in NVDA and the associated rallies in AAPL and FB drove the NDX and SPX to another new high early in the session. In sympathy, the Russell 2000(IWM) also opened strong before reversing down and undercutting Friday’s low. In our work, the Tuesday after a monthly option expiration is a turn window and we expect a reversal higher in the IWM early Tuesday. We remain in 50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, etc.) and the euphoric retail option trading going on in US markets. Interestingly, the Russell 2000 (IWM) appears to be making a low going into the 11/19-11/22 Full Moon Timing Window that runs into Monday and the oversold NYMO is a buy signal. On a macro level, our bias is that accelerating inflation will continue until the early December CPI report and that will pressure Powell and the FOMC to rethink their interest rate policy moves sooner than later – this could put an end to the stock bull market before year end. After a Q3 slump, the US economy is getting a post-Delta bounce and the start of the October blowoff in the Russell 2000 may have pulled forward the “January effect” into November/December. Crude oil made a low Sunday night at $74.76 in the Full Moon Timing Window and this gave the oil stocks a boost on Monday after Covid shutdown fears from Europe sold energy stocks hard on Friday. Bitcoin, the best inflation hedge of the year by far, gave us an undercut low near the close on Monday and may be putting in a trading low. Gold continued its correction from $1879 early Tuesday and spiked down to $1804 on Monday as the banks sold the Chairman Powell news hard – we could see more down into the 11/23 Comex option expiration on Tuesday which is the 55-day Fibonacci step out from the 9/29 low. The USD made new highs for the year at 96.55 on Monday as the 10-yr US rate ran up to 1.62%

11/22/21 (Commentary for Monday) The White House release of the Chairman Powell news at 9:00 AM EDT set off a volatile trading day that opened strong but ended the day with both the SPX and NDX in the red. The SPX and NDX both made new highs into 10:30 AM EDT before  reaching an EW 5-wave pattern completion on the daily chart and reversing down into the close. In symmetry, the Russell 2000 (IWM) opened strong but finished Monday with an undercut low of Friday’s session. The Tuesday after a monthly expiration is a turn window and we expect a reversal higher in the broad-based Russell 2000(IWM) by tomorrow. The NYMO closed below its lower Bollinger Band for a second consecutive day and that is a Buy Signal for the Russell 2000.  The SPX has entered a period of bullish seasonality into the end of November – one of the most bullish times of the year. Bitcoin may have finished a “running B-Wave correction” on the daily chart on Monday’s 11/19-11/22 Full Moon Timing Window and this could lead to a sharp reversal higher to 74,000  into December. It appears to us that both the Russell 2000 and Bitcoin may have finished an EW a-b-c correction going into Monday – how we trade on Tuesday will be key. We still hold 50% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too great with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and the wildly-euphoric retail trade volume in call options. Gold made a high on 11/16 at $1879 and tested $1804 on Monday – more down into the 11/23 Comex gold option expiration and the 55-day Fibonacci step out is possible before a trading low is made. Crude oil made a low at $74.76 overnight Sunday as renewed Covid shutdown fears from Europe hit the energy sector hard. Renewed talk of releasing oil from the strategic petroleum reserves in the US, China and Japan kept a lid on prices Monday. Bonds rallied hard to 162 on Friday as global growth fears returned to haunt the financial markets but then sold off Monday after the reappointment of Chairman Powell – the 10-yr rate rallied to 1.62% by the end of the session. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months - US liquidity conditions were tightening in advance of the Fed taper as US Excess Liquidity measures continue to roll over and that predicts a “compression” in the S&P 500 P/E ratio later this year and a possible end to the 12-yr bull market from 2009 in Q4 2021 or early 2022. The USD is rallying to new highs for the year at 96.60 Monday night - in a global credit contraction, the two senior currencies (gold and the USD) can rally together.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) –The NDX and SPX made a new high on Monday as the IWM may have finished an EW a-b-c correction. The Tuesday after a monthly expiration is a turn window and we expect a reversal higher in the IWM. There is bullish seasonality for US stocks into the end of November and we could see at least a bounce in the SPX into Friday.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold has trended lower from its 11/16 high at $1879 into $1802 on Monday – we can move lower still into the Comex option expiration on 11/23 which is the 55-day Fibonacci step from the 9/29 low and a chance for a trading low.

• Stocks – The SPY and the QQQ made all-time highs early before a correction and the IWM made a potential correction low near the close. The NYMO made back-to-back closes below its lower Bollinger Band into Friday which is a Buy Signal for the stock market.
• Gold – From Tuesday’s high at $1879, gold has trended lower to test $1802 on Monday and may see lower lows into the 11/23 Comex option expiration which is the 55-day Fibonacci step out from the key low on 9/29. We will look to add Barrick Gold on early dips on Tuesday.
• Silver – Weakness in the silver stocks on Friday argues for more down into the 11/23 Comex option expiration.
• Bonds – Bonds rallied to 162 on Friday’s Covid shutdown fears from Europe before falling on Monday as the 10-yr US rate rallied to 1.62% after Powell was reappointed.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil made lower lows at $74.76 Sunday night – we could see a reversal higher by Tuesday which could boost the XLE stocks.
• Dollar Index –The USD made new highs for the year at 96.60 – a global credit contraction usually supports a rally in both gold and the USD.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 11/23.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - November 21, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: We had a split market again Friday on the Full Moon + lunar eclipse– the NDX made a new all-time high and the IWM may have made a correction low. More post-earnings rally in NVDA and the associated rallies in AAPL and AMZN drove the NDX to another new high. In contrast, the Russell 2000(IWM) may have finished an EW a-b-c correction today on the Full Moon as the market awaits the Biden decision on Chairman Powell’s tenure. The New York Composite McClellan Oscillator (NYMO) closed for a second day below its lower Bollinger Band on the daily chart and took out the 9/20 low which is a BUY SIGNAL for us. Unlike the NDX, the Russell 2000 appears to be seriously discounting the possibility of Powell being dropped by the Biden Administration. In our work, the Tuesday after a monthly option expiration is a turn window and we expect that the stock market is setting up for a big move by Tuesday – a news related flash crash is possible (ala Powell) but since stocks often statistically bottom near a Full Moon a strong reversal higher is also possible. Therefore, we remain in 50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, etc.) and the euphoric retail option trading going on in US markets. Interestingly, the Russell 2000 (IWM) appears to have made a low going into the Full Moon Timing Window on Friday and the oversold NYMO gave us a strong buy signal on 9/20. On a macro level, our bias is that accelerating inflation will continue until the early December CPI report and that will pressure Powell and the FOMC to rethink their interest rate policy moves sooner than later – this could put an end to the stock bull market before year end. After a Q3 slump, the US economy is getting a post-Delta bounce and the blowoff in the Russell 2000 may have pulled forward the “January effect” into November/December. Crude oil made a low Sunday night at $74.76 in the Full Moon Timing Window – this could boost the XLE stocks on Monday after Covid shutdown fears from Europe sold energy stocks hard on Friday. Bitcoin, the best inflation hedge of the year by far, may have finished an EW a-b-c correction on the exact Full Moon early Friday at 55600. Gold continued its correction from $1879 early Tuesday and tested $1840 Sunday evening – we could see more down into the 11/23 Comex option expiration which is the 55-day Fibonacci step out from the 9/29 low. A global credit contraction led by China has kept US bonds and the USD well bid up to now – the USD is testing 96.16 Sunday night.

11/21/21 (Commentary for Sunday) The post-earnings bounce from NVDA and big rallies from AAPL and AMZN gave us a divergent new high in the NDX on Friday. In contrast, the Russell 2000 (IWM) may have finished an EW a-b-c correction into the Friday Full Moon as the broad market is seriously discounting the chance of Biden dropping Chairman Powell. The bifurcation in the stock market has reached extremes here and could be closed violently one way or another in the near term. The Tuesday after a monthly expiration is a turn window and we expect a big move in the broad-based Russell 2000(IWM) by Tuesday. The NYMO closed below its lower Bollinger Band for a second consecutive day and that is a Buy Signal for the Russell 2000.  The SPX has entered a period of bullish seasonality into the end of November – one of the most bullish times of the year. Bitcoin may have finished a “running B-Wave correction” on the daily chart on Friday’s Full Moon and this could lead to a sharp reversal higher to 74,000 or so into December. It appears to us that both the Russell 2000 and Bitcoin may have finished an EW a-b-c correction going into the Full Moon on Friday – how we trade on Monday will be key. We still hold 50% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too great with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and the wildly-euphoric retail trade volume in call options. Gold made a high early Tuesday at $1879 and dropped to test $1840 Sunday night – more down into the 11/23 Comex gold option expiration is possible. Crude oil made a low at $74.76 overnight Sunday as renewed Covid shutdown fears from Europe hit the energy sector hard – we are looking for a reversal higher in the XLE stocks on Monday. Bonds rallied hard to 162 on Friday as global growth fears returned to haunt the financial markets. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months - US liquidity conditions were tightening in advance of the Fed taper as US Excess Liquidity measures continue to roll over and that predicts a “compression” in the S&P 500 P/E ratio later this year and a possible end to the 12-yr bull market from 2009 in Q4 2021 or early 2022. The USD tested Tuesday’s high at 96.24 on Friday before a sideways correction into Sunday night - in a global credit contraction, the two senior currencies (gold and the USD) can rally together.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) –The NDX made a divergent new high on Friday’s Full Moon as the IWM may have finished an EW a-b-c correction on Friday. After 11/15, seasonality turned bullish for US stocks into the end of November and so we are looking to buy dips in the IWM on Monday.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold has trended lower from its Tuesday high at $1879 into overnight Sunday at $1840 – we may move lower into the Comex option expiration on 11/23. A hold above the August 2020 downtrend line would be bullish.

• Stocks – The IWM may have finished an EW a-b-c correction going on Friday’s Full Moon. The NYMO made back-to-back closes below its lower Bollinger Band into Friday which is a Buy Signal for the stock market.
• Gold – From Tuesday’s high at $1879, gold has trended lower to test $1840 Sunday night and may see lower lows into the 11/23 Comex option expiration.
• Silver – Weakness in the silver stocks on Friday argues for more down into the 11/23 Comex option expiration.
• Bonds – Bonds rallied to 162 on Friday’s Covid shutdown fears from Europe.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil made lower lows at $74.76 Sunday night – we could see a reversal higher by Monday which could boost the XLE stocks.
• Dollar Index –The USD tested 96.24 again early Friday before correcting– a global credit contraction usually supports a rally in both gold and the USD.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 11/22-11/23.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 18, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: We had a split market going into today’s 11/18-11/19 Full Moon Timing Window. The big post-earnings rally in NVDA and the big rally day in AAPL and AMZN helped power both the NDX to new all-time highs. In contrast, the Russell 2000(IWM) may have finished an EW a-b-c correction today into the Full Moon. The New York Composite McClellan Oscillator (NYMO) closed below its lower Bollinger Band on the daily chart which is a BUY SIGNAL. The Russell 2000 appears to be discounting the possibility of Powell being dropped by the Biden Administration. Our bias is for an EW 5^th wave higher off the key 10/4 low in the SPX going into December.  However, we remain in 50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, etc.) and the euphoric retail option trading going on in US markets. Interestingly, the Russell 2000 (IWM) appears to have made a low going into the Full Moon Timing Window today. Our bias is that accelerating inflation will continue until the early December CPI report and that will pressure Powell and the FOMC to rethink their interest rate policy soon – this could put an end to the stock bull market before year end. After a Q3 slump, the US economy is getting a post-Delta bounce and the blowoff in the Russell 2000 may have pulled forward the “January effect” into November/December. Crude oil made a low early Tuesday at $76.44 on its S1 pivot and is reversing higher – this should boost the XLE stocks. Bitcoin, the best inflation hedge of the year by far, may be finishing an EW a-b-c correction going into the exact Full Moon early Friday. Gold continues its correction from $1879 early Tuesday and could give us a spike down into the 11/22 Comex option expiration which is the 55-day Fibonacci step out from the 9/29 low. A global credit contraction led by China has kept US bonds and the USD well bid up to now – could accelerating inflation change this?

11/18/21 (Commentary for Thursday) The post-earnings bounce from NVDA and big rallies from AAPL and AMZN gave us a new high in the NDX and in afterhours action, the E-mini is rallying to new all-time highs.  In contrast, the Russell 2000 (IWM) may have finished an EW a-b-c correction into the Full Moon as the broad market appears to be discounting the chance of Biden dropping Chairman Powell. However, the NYMO closed below its lower Bollinger Band and that is a Buy Signal for the Russell 2000.  The SPX has entered a period of bullish seasonality into the end of November. Bitcoin may be close to finishing “a running B-Wave correction” on the daily chart into the Full Moon tomorrow which could lead to a sharp reversal higher. It appears to us that both the Russell 2000 and Bitcoin may be close to finishing an EW a-b-c correction going into the Full Moon on Friday. We still hold 50% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too great with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and the wildly-euphoric retail trade volume in call options. Gold made a high early Tuesday at $1879 and is correcting into the 11/18-11/19 Full Moon Timing Window – a spike down into the 11/22 Comex gold option expiration is possible. Crude oil made a low at $76.44 at its S1 pivot support in today’s Full Moon Timing Window and is reversing higher impulsively which is bullish. Bonds continued higher today despite strong economic reports. Will the 10-yr rate start reflecting stronger than expected US inflation or reflect the movement of capital from a global credit contraction led by China? In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months - US liquidity conditions were tightening in advance of the Fed taper as US Excess Liquidity measures continue to roll over and that predicts a “compression” in the S&P 500 P/E ratio later this year and a possible end to the 12-yr bull market from 2009 in Q4 2021 or early 2022. The USD spiked to 96.24 Tuesday night, highs for the year before correcting into Friday – in a global credit contraction, the two senior currencies (gold and the USD) can rally together.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) –The SPX and IWM blew off into the 11/5-11/8 turn window and became “historically stretched” but the IWM may have finished an EW a-b-c correction into today’s Full Moon Timing Window. After 11/15, seasonality turned bullish for US stocks into the end of November.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold spiked to $1879 early Tuesday and started trending lower into Friday’s Full Moon and possibly the Comex option expiration on 11/22.

• Stocks – The IWM may have finished an EW a-b-c correction going into Friday’s Full Moon. The NYMO closed below its lower Bollinger Band today which is a Buy Signal for the stock market.
• Gold – Gold made a high early Tuesday at $1879 before trending lower into the 11/19 Full Moon and possibly the 11/22 Comex option expiration.
• Silver – Silver is trending sideways into the 11/19 Full Moon – weakness in the silver stocks argues for more down into the 11/22 Comex option expiration.
• Bonds – Bonds continued to rally today and the 10-yr US rate pulled back to 1.58%.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil made a low early Thursday on its S1 pivot support at $76.44 and is reversing higher – this could boost the XLE.
• Dollar Index –The USD tested 96.24 Tuesday night before correcting– a global credit contraction usually supports a rally in both gold and the USD.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 11/19-11/20, the Full Moon + Lunar Eclipse Timing Window.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 17, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX, NDX and Russell 2000 all continued in correction mode after the “historic overbought condition” on 11/8. In our opinion, the SPX and IWM remain  vulnerable to a sharp C-Wave down if Chairman Powell loses his job in the next few days. Our overall bias is for new highs in the SPX going into December, however we remain in 50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, etc.) and the euphoric retail option trading going on in US markets. As Rajacar has noted: 3/23/20 trendline resistance turned the Russell 2000, Tesla and Bitcoin down last week and all three of those assets remain in correction mode which keeps us cautious. Our bias is that accelerating inflation will continue until the early December CPI report and that will pressure Powell and the FOMC to rethink their interest rate policy – this could put an end to the stock bull market before year end. After a Q3 slump, the US economy is getting a post-Delta bounce and the blow off in the Russell 2000 may have pulled forward the “January effect” into November. As retail investors poured into oil stocks last week, crude oil is trending lower into the 11/18-11/19 Full Moon Timing Window + Lunar Eclipse. Crude oil broke below $78.25 Wednesday and this is a SELL SIGNAL for the SPX. Bitcoin, the best inflation hedge of the year by far, continues to sub-divide down bearishly. Gold made a running B-Wave high at $1879 early Tuesday before a quick sell off to test its weekly downtrend line from August 2020 – we’re looking for gold to make highs for the week on the 11/19 Full Moon. A global credit contraction led by China has kept US bonds and the USD well bid up to now – could accelerating inflation change this?

11/17/21 (Commentary for Wednesday) The IWM and SPX remain in correction mode as the fate of Chairman Powell is still up in the air. There is potential for a Flash Crash Day this week – be nimble and hold some cash. After 11/15, the SPX enters a period of bullish seasonality into the Thanksgiving holiday, but we could see more correction first. Bitcoin continues to sub-divide down in a negative way and may have left a double top behind on its marginal new high at 69355.  The fact that Tesla, Bitcoin and the Russell 2000 were turned back from their 3/23/20 trendlines and remain in correction mode is BEARISH for the stock market here. We still hold 50% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too great with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and the wildly extended weekly charts in Bitcoin, crude oil and uranium from 2020. However, we have moved into gold, silver and gold stocks with our invested funds the past few weeks and are expecting more strength into the 11/18-11/19 Full Moon Timing Window. We believed that October would be a turn-around month for gold and that has come to pass as gold broke above its downtrend line from August 2020 and made a weekly close above $1837 horizontal resistance. Crude oil is falling into the 11/19 Full Moon and tonight plunged through the $78.25 low to $76.81 which is a sell signal for the SPX. Bonds got a bounce today after a few days of selling. Will the 10-yr rate start reflecting stronger than expected US inflation or reflect the movement of capital from a global credit contraction led by China? In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months - US liquidity conditions were tightening in advance of the Fed taper as US Excess Liquidity measures continue to roll over and that predicts a “compression” in the S&P 500 P/E ratio later this year and a possible end to the 12-yr bull market from 2009 in Q4 2021 or early 2022. Gold spiked to $1879 early Tuesday before a quick correction to back test the down trendline from August 2020 USD  - we are still looking for highs for the week into the 11/18-11/19 Full Moon + Lunar Eclipse. The USD spiked to 96.24 Tuesday night, highs for the year before correcting on Wednesday – in a global credit contraction, the two senior currencies (gold and the USD) can rally together.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) –The SPX and IWM blew off into the 11/5-11/8 turn window and became “historically stretched” – a symmetry correction in the SPX could take us to 4630 this week if Powell fails to get reappointed. After 11/15, seasonality turns bullish for US stocks into the end of November.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold spiked to $1879 early Tuesday before a quick pullback to back test its downtrend line from August 2020. We are now looking for a run higher into the 11/18-11/19 Full Moon.

• Stocks – The IWM is rolling over in a C-Wave down as Big Tech holds the SPX and NDX up. A symmetry correction to 4630 is possible this week if Powell fails to get reappointed.
• Gold – Gold made a “running B-Wave high” early Tuesday at $1879 before a pullback to back test its downtrend line from August 2020. We are looking for gold to take out $1879 to the upside by the 11/19 Full Moon.
• Silver – Silver made a “running B-Wave high” at $25.49 early Tuesday before a quick correction – we are looking for $25.49 to be taken out by the 11/19-11/20 Full Moon.
• Bonds – Bonds bounced today and the 10-yr US rate pulled back to 1.60%.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil has been trending lower into the 11/19-11/20 Full Moon and Wednesday it fell below $78.25 which is bearish for the SPX.
• Dollar Index –The USD tested 96.24 Tuesday night before correcting– a global credit contraction usually supports a rally in both gold and the USD.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 11/19-11/20, the Full Moon + Lunar Eclipse Timing Window.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 16, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 11/5 high at 4716.5 before weakening into the close. In our opinion, the SPX and IWM is in correction mode and vulnerable to a C-Wave down especially if Chairman Powell loses his job. Our bias is for new highs in the SPX going into December, however we remain in 50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, etc.) and the euphoric retail option trading going on in US markets. Since the IWM bounce from 11/10 looks corrective, we have to consider the possibility of a more significant pullback this week especially if bad Chairman Powell news comes out. As Rajacar has noted: 3/23/20 trendline resistance turned the Russell 2000, Tesla and Bitcoin down last week and all three of those assets remain in correction mode. Our bias is that accelerating inflation will continue until the early December CPI report and that will pressure Powell and the FOMC to rethink their interest rate policy – this could put an end to the bull market before year end. After a Q3 slump, the US economy is getting a post-Delta bounce and the blowoff in the Russell 2000 may have pulled forward the “January effect” into November –– the strong retail sales report this morning hit bonds and gave the 10-yr US rate a boost to 1.637%. As retail investors poured into oil stocks last week, crude oil appears poised to test $78.25– a break below $78.25 would be a SELL SIGNAL for the SPX. Bitcoin, the best inflation hedge of the year by far, is falling below 60000 Tuesday night as money appears to be flowing into the PM sector. Gold made a running B-Wave high at $1879 early Tuesday before a quick sell off to test its weekly downtrend line from August 2020. Bonds got sold after a bad 30-yr Treasury auction last Wednesday and continues to roll over on strong economic reports this week – the 10-yr US rate hit 1.637%. A global credit contraction led by China has kept US bonds and the USD well bid up to now – could accelerating inflation change this?

11/16/21 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX made a B-Wave test of its 4718.5 high today before reversing down. The IWM also appears to need another leg down correct and the chance for Chairman Powell to get dumped opens the door for a potential Flash Crash Day this week – be nimble and hold some cash. After 11/15, the SPX will be entering a period of bullish seasonality into the Thanksgiving holiday, but we could see more correction first. The corrective bounce in US markets from 11/10 ended Tuesday for the Russell 2000 which led stocks higher from the 10/4 low.  Bitcoin is breaking below 60000 and may have left a double top behind on its marginal new high at 69355.  The fact that Tesla, Bitcoin and the Russell 2000 were turned back from their 3/23/20 trendlines and remain in correction modes is BEARISH for the stock market here. We still hold 50% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too great with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and the wildly extended weekly charts in Bitcoin, crude oil and uranium from 2020. However, we have moved into gold, silver and gold stocks with our invested funds the past few weeks and are expecting more strength into the 11/19-11/20 Full Moon. We believed that October would be a turn-around month for gold and that has come to pass as gold broke above its downtrend line from August 2020 and we made a weekly close above $1837 horizontal resistance. Crude oil has been rolling over and is testing the  $78.25 low  – a break below $78.25 will be a SELL SIGNAL for the SPX. Bonds continue to sell off after some strong economic reports this week and the 10-yr US rate got kicked up to 1.637%. Will the 10-yr rate start reflecting stronger than expected US inflation or reflect the movement of capital from a global credit contraction led by China? In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months - US liquidity conditions were tightening in advance of the Fed taper as US Excess Liquidity measures continue to roll over and that predicts a “compression” in the S&P 500 P/E ratio later this year and a possible end to the 12-yr bull market from 2009 in Q4 2021 or early 2022. Gold spiked to $1879 early Tuesday before a quick correction on a spiking USD  - we are still looking for a run higher into the 11/19-11/20 Full Moon. The USD is spiking to 96.24 Tuesday night, highs for the year – in a global credit contraction, the two senior currencies (gold and the USD) can rally together.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) –The SPX and IWM blew off into the 11/5-11/8 turn window and became “historically stretched” – a symmetry correction in the SPX could take us to 4630 this week if Powell fails to get reappointed. After 11/15, seasonality turns bullish for US stocks into the end of November.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold spiked to $1879 early Tuesday before a quick correction to back test its downtrend line from August 2020 – the 11/9-11/10 turn window may have been an acceleration point for gold - this is bullish for the PM sector.

• Stocks – The SPX made a B-Wave test of its 4718 high and reversed down and the IWM appears to need another leg down. A symmetry correction to 4630 is possible this week.
• Gold – Gold made a “running B-Wave high” early Tuesday at $1879 before a spiking USD pressured it down. We are looking for gold to take out $1879 to the upside by the 11/19 Full Moon.
• Silver – Silver made a “running B-Wave high” at $25.49 early Tuesday before a quick correction – we are looking for $25.49 to be taken out by the 11/19-11/20 Full Moon.
• Bonds – Bonds continue to correct after last week’s hot CPI report and bad bond auction – the 10-yr US rate rallied to 1.637% today after a strong retail sales report.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil is trying to roll over after retail investors poured money into oil stocks last week – a break below $78.25 would be bearish for the SPX.
• Dollar Index –The USD is testing 96.24 Tuesday night – a global credit contraction usually supports a rally in both gold and the USD.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 11/19-11/20, the Full Moon Timing Window.