All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer – July 30, 2020

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Bad economic numbers (like GDP and continuing jobless claims) plus upsetting rhetoric from Trump about delaying the November elections gave stocks a weak open Thursday, but the NDX managed to close the day positive and the overnight NQ futures soared on good earnings from AAPL, AMZN, FB, and GOOGL. How we trade early Friday will be a test of the stock market's ability to extend the market gains into early August. Gold continued its consolidation from early Tuesday but caught a bid late Thursday on the USD's decline below 93.

 

7/30/20 (Commentary for Thursday) Predictably bad economic numbers, a big drop in oil, and more "shock rhetoric" from Trump gave us a weak SPX open, but the indices rallied into the close and good earnings from AAPL, AMZN, FB and GOOGL augur for a strong start early Friday. How we trade on Friday (after earnings reports from XOM and CVX) will be a test of the SPX's ability to test our target of 3500 into August. Our thought about the economic recovery stocks (oils, banks, and materials) leading the SPX above 3500 into August is still alive (the financials are showing strength) but we need a strong showing from the oil sector on Friday to get the SPX going higher. Crude oil fell hard early Thursday but still has a chance to spike into Monday's Full Moon and the earnings reports from XOM and CVX early Friday will be key. Silver continued its decline from late Wednesday and tested $23 before rebounding into Thursday evening– we may have finished an EW a-b-c decline. The USD is trading below 93 Thursday night. If the USD closes below 93 on Friday, this will ignite another leg up in gold and silver. Gold is making another test of the $2000 level on Thursday night – we are still holding some GLD calls. Silver is being driven by a strong "reversion to mean" gold/silver ratio trade. The USD is fueling the PM rally by its confirmed downtrend.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX price action from the high of January 2018 to the low of March 2020 was a large Running B-Wave correction in Elliott Wave parlance – we are currently in a final 5^th wave higher that should end the bull market from March 2009 and reach 3500+. The SPX may have finished a "running B-wave" correction on 7/24 and turned up early Monday for a rally to test SPX 3500 in August.

 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold tested major resistance at $2000 Wednesday night and silver tested major resistance at $26 on Tuesday night. Gold and silver are close to becoming momentum plays for day traders. The weakening USD is building a head of steam in gold and silver which should be bought on dips.

 

• Stocks –Good earnings from AAPL, AMZN, FB and GOOGL should give us a strong open on Friday – how we trade after the open (and earnings from XOM and CVX) will be key to the chances of extending the SPX rally into August.
• Gold – Gold is testing $2000 again Thursday night as the USD trades below 93 – a close Friday below 93 could ignite another leg higher in gold and silver. The DSI sentiment numbers on gold and silver look toppy in the short term and that is a warning.
• Silver – Silver may have bottomed an EW a-b-c correction at $23 Thursday. A weakening USD is lighting a fire under silver – a USD close below 93 could really ignite the PM sector.
• Bonds – As the USD falls below 93 Thursday night, bonds are soaring to test 183.
• Crude Oil - Crude oil was sold hard early Thursday but could still spike into Monday's Full Moon – earnings from XOM and CVX are key early Friday.
• Dollar Index – The USD is very oversold but can not sustain a rally – a close below 93 on Friday will be an inflationary signal to US markets.

   

   

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 7/27.

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – July 29, 2020

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX gapped up on FOMC Wednesday and then rallied through the minutes and the Powell press conference into the close. The SPY and QQQ finished a 5-wave rally from Friday into Monday and then pulled back into early FOMC Wednesday before launching a rally into the close. All 11 S&P market sectors closed higher as the SPX gave us a Positive Volume Reversal Day and a bullish signal for the intermediate term. Gold continued its consolidation from early Tuesday but made a test of $2000 after Powell reconfirmed the Fed's ultra-dovish stance on monetary policy. Silver made 7-year highs above $26 Monday night and managed to give us a B-Wave test of that high after the Fed minutes before a sharp reversal. The USD is very oversold and may have started a corrective bounce.

 

7/29/20 (Commentary for Wednesday) In a typical pattern for Fed week, the SPX peaked on Monday and corrected into Wednesday, then we rallied hard from the open on FOMC Wednesday into the close – today's strong showing in all 11 S&P market sectors was a bullish sign for more rally into August. Our thought about the economic recovery stocks (oils, banks, and materials) leading the SPX above 3500 into August was rekindled today, as both bank stocks (nice rally in BAC) and the oil stocks rallied. However, this idea will be further tested this week by the earnings from XOM and CVX on Friday. Crude oil continues to coil and looks ready for a rally into Monday's Full Moon – this should help the oil stock sector (XLE). Silver consolidated its early week gains but did manage to give us a B-Wave test of $26 after the FOMC minutes. If the USD closes below 93, this will ignite another leg up in gold and silver. Gold managed to make another all-time high at $1998 and a test of the $2000 level – we are still holding some GLD calls. Silver is being driven by a strong "reversion to mean" gold/silver ratio trade. The USD is fueling the PM rally by its confirmed downtrend.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX price action from the high of January 2018 to the low of March 2020 was a large Running B-Wave correction in Elliott Wave parlance – we are currently in a final 5^th wave higher that should end the bull market from March 2009 and reach 3500+. The SPX may have finished a "running B-wave" correction on Friday and turned up early Monday for a rally to test SPX 3500 in August.

 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – After a $4 gain last week, silver broke higher into Monday evening to test our initial target of $26 before a sharp 10% retracement. Silver is close to becoming a momentum play for day traders. The weakening USD is building a head of steam in silver which should be bought on dips.

 

• Stocks –The SPX peaked on Monday and appears to be pulling back correctively into the FOMC minutes on Wednesday. We are inclined to buy XOM, CVX and BAC on dips this week.
• Gold – Gold tested $2000 after the FOMC minutes and then pulled back sharply. Meanwhile, the GDX just gave us an EW a-b-c pullback into FOMC Wednesday from Monday's high. The DSI sentiment numbers on gold and silver look toppy in the short term and that is a warning.
• Silver – Silver gave us a spike higher to test $26 Monday evening before a quick 10% correction. Silver then gave us a B-Wave test of $26 after the FOMC minutes before a sharp pullback. A weakening USD is lighting a fire under silver – a USD close below 93 could really ignite the PM sector. Tomorrow is a "Big Range" day for silver from its solar-lunar cycles – we may have started a C-Wave down late in the day. We plan to buy SLV on weakness.
• Bonds – Bonds are tracing out an inverted H&S pattern on the hourly chart that should have a bullish resolution.
• Crude Oil - Crude oil is coiling for a move higher into Monday's Full Moon – we like CVX, XOM and COP on dips.
• Dollar Index – The USD is very oversold and may have started a corrective bounce today – this could pressure silver Thursday.

   

   

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 7/27.

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – July 28, 2020

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Both the SPY and QQQ finished a 5-wave rally from Friday into Monday and then pulled back into Wednesday's FOMC minutes. Both technology and the economic recovery stocks sold off into the close - how we trade after the FOMC minutes on Wednesday will be key for the intermediate term. Gold pulled back hard Monday night but then crawled its way back to make a higher high Tuesday night to $1976.7. Silver made 7-year highs above $26 Monday night before pulling back in a quick 10% correction. The USD continues to make lower lows which supports the PM sector.

 

7/28/20 (Commentary for Tuesday) In a typical pattern for Fed week, the SPX peaked on Monday and corrected into Wednesday – how we trade after the FOMC minutes could set the intermediate-term trend. Our thought about the economic recovery stocks (oils, banks, and materials) leading the SPX above 3500 by August looked shaky today, as both the tech stocks and the economic recovery stocks sold off - this idea will be further tested this week by the earnings from XOM and CVX on Friday. Crude oil continues to coil and looks ready for a rally into Monday's Full Moon – this should help the oil stock sector. After a $4 rally from 7/17 last week, silver gave us just a sideways consolidation into late Friday and then spiked higher to $26.25 Monday evening before a 10% correction – if the USD closes below 93, this will be a short correction – we plan to buy SLV on dips. Gold reached $1975 late Monday and then gave us a $75 correction into Tuesday before a late surge to higher highs at $1976.7 – we are still holding some GLD calls. Silver is being driven by a strong "reversion to mean" gold/silver ratio trade – silver easily eclipsed the 2016 high early Tuesday and is rallying in a powerful 3^rd wave higher from the March low. The USD is fueling the PM rally by its confirmed downtrend.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX price action from the high of January 2018 to the low of March 2020 was a large Running B-Wave correction in Elliott Wave parlance – we are currently in a final 5^th wave higher that should end the bull market from March 2009 and reach 3500+. The SPX may have finished a "running B-wave" correction on Friday and turned up early Monday.

 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – After a $4 gain last week, silver broke higher into Monday evening to test our initial target of $26 before a sharp 10% retracement. Silver is close to becoming a momentum play by day traders. The weakening USD is building a head of steam in silver which should be bought on dips.

 

• Stocks –The SPX peaked on Monday and appears to be pulling back correctively into the FOMC minutes on Wednesday. We are inclined to buy XOM, CVX and BAC on dips this week.
• Gold – Gold tested $1975 Monday evening and then gave us a $75 correction, however, gold then crawled back to make new highs at $1976.7 Tuesday evening – we are still holding some GLD calls. However, the GDX gave us 5-waves up into early Monday and that is a warning. The DSI sentiment numbers on gold and silver look toppy in the short term and that is another warning.
• Silver – Silver gave us a spike higher to test $26 Monday evening before a quick 10% correction. Silver is now retracing higher in a possible B-Wave rally. A weakening USD is lighting a fire under silver – a USD close below 93 could really ignite the PM sector.
• Bonds – Bonds rallied hard on stock weakness Tuesday.
• Crude Oil - Crude oil finished an EW a-b-c correction from $42.51 into early Monday – crude oil is coiling for a move higher into Monday's Full Moon.
• Dollar Index – The USD remains in a confirmed downtrend below 94 – this is very bullish for silver.

   

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 7/27.

The Daily JDV Market Timer – July 27, 2020

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Both the SPY and QQQ gave us a 5-wave rally from Friday into Monday and that looks bullish for higher highs going forward. The tepid move in the VIX early Monday emboldened us to take a flyer on some oil and bank stocks. Gold tested $1940 during the day, making an all-time high, but then rocketed in the evening to $1974 before a strong pullback. Silver also had a big day and tested $26 in the evening before a correction. The USD continues to make lower lows which supports the PM sector.

 

7/27/20 (Commentary for Monday) The rally patterns in the SPY and QQQ from Friday into Monday look constructive for higher highs in this key week of earnings reports. Our thought about the economic recovery stocks (oils, banks, and materials) leading the SPX above 3500 by August is still on track, but this idea will be tested this week by the earnings from XOM and CVX on Friday. We think that oil stocks (XOM and CVX) and bank stocks (WFC and BAC) could be the beneficiaries of a final run in the SPX above 3500 as money rotates from tech to energy and banking. Crude oil gave us a final leg down of an EW a-b-c correction from the New Moon high into early Monday and then rebounded – we are bullish on the oil sector this week. After a $4 rally from 7/17 last week, silver gave us just a sideways consolidation into late Friday and then spiked higher to $26.25 Monday evening before a correction. Gold ended Friday coiling just under $1900 and then spiked to new all-time highs early Monday before correcting from a spike to $1975 late Monday. Silver is being driven by a strong "reversion to mean" gold/silver ratio trade – silver easily eclipsed the 2016 high early Tuesday and is rallying in a powerful 3^rd wave higher from the March low. The USD is fueling the PM rally by its confirmed downtrend.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX price action from the high of January 2018 to the low of March 2020 was a large Running B-Wave correction in Elliott Wave parlance – we are currently in a final 5^th wave higher that should end the bull market from March 2009 and reach 3500+. The SPX may have finished a "running B-wave" correction on Friday and turned up early Monday.

 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – After a $4 gain last week, silver broke higher into Monday evening to test our initial target of $26 before a sharp retracement. Silver is close to becoming a momentum play by day traders. The weakening USD is building a head of steam in silver which should be bought on dips.

 

• Stocks –The SPX finished a running B-Wave correction on Friday and reversed higher on Monday. We are inclined to buy XOM, CVX and BAC on dips this week.
• Gold – Gold closed Friday coiling under $1900 and broke out to all-time highs Monday. However, the GDX gave us 5-waves up into early Monday and that is a warning. The DSI sentiment numbers on gold and silver look toppy in the short term and that is another warning.
• Silver – After rallying $4 into Wednesday, silver gave us a sideways correction into the weekend before a spike higher to test $26 Monday evening. Silver then gave us a quick retracement to $24. A weakening USD is lighting a fire under silver.
• Bonds – Bonds sold off hard on Monday as stocks rallied into the close.
• Crude Oil - Crude oil finished an EW a-b-c correction from $42.51 into early Monday – we are bullish on oil stocks.
• Dollar Index – The USD remains in a confirmed downtrend below 94 – this is very bullish for silver.

   

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 7/27.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer – July 26, 2020

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Last week, the NDX gave us a high in the 7/20-7/21 New Moon Time Window and we may have bottomed an EW a-b-c correction early Friday. Monday is a high-energy turn window and we are looking for a big rally day for the SPX and NDX – the pattern of the SPX, NDX rally will be enlightening on Monday. The tepid move in the VIX Friday after stocks opened weak makes us willing to buy the SPX and NDX early Monday on a pullback. Gold coiled below $1900 late Friday and is breaking higher Sunday night to all-time highs – silver is also up big Sunday night as calls for $26 are exciting the momentum traders. The USD continues to break lower which supports silver.

 

7/26/20 (Commentary for Sunday) The E-mini made a low Friday as "put options" got a bid – we are seeing a reversal Sunday night into the 7/27 high-energy turn window. How the SPX and NDX trade on Monday is key – an impulsive rally that takes out SPX 3280 and NDX 11014 would be bullish for more gains into August. However, if the SPX traces out just a 3-wave bounce, that could argue for more consolidation next week. Our thoughts about the economic recovery stocks leading the SPX above 3500 by August is still on track, but this idea will be tested on Monday if the SPX rally fails. We think that oil stocks (XOM and CVX report earnings next week) and bank stocks (WFC and BAC) could be the beneficiaries of a final run in the SPX above 3500. Crude oil gave us just an EW a-b-c correction from the New Moon high at $42.51 into Friday – we are bullish on the oil sector. After a $4 rally from 7/17, silver gave us just a sideways consolidation into late Friday and is impulsing higher on Sunday evening. Gold ended Friday coiling under $1900 and is breaking sharply higher early Monday. Silver is being driven by a strong "reversion to mean" gold/silver ratio trade – silver easily eclipsed the 2016 high early Tuesday and is rallying in a powerful 3^rd wave higher from the March low. The USD is fueling the PM rally by its confirmed downtrend.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX price action from the high of January 2018 to the low of March 2020 was a large Running B-Wave correction in Elliott Wave parlance – we are currently in a final 5^th wave higher that should end the bull market from March 2009 and reach 3500+. The SPX may have finished a "running B-wave" correction on Friday and should turn up early Monday.

 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – After a $4 gain last week, silver is breaking above $24 Sunday evening as gold breaks into new all-time high territory above $1930. The weakening USD is building a head of steam in silver which should be bought on dips.

 

• Stocks –The SPX may have finished a running B-Wave correction on Friday – we could eclipse 3280 on Monday. We are inclined to buy oil stocks and bank stocks early Monday.
• Gold – Gold closed Friday coiling under $1900 and is now breaking out to all-time highs Sunday evening. However, gold stocks gave us some negative divergence going into the weekend and that is a warning. The DSI sentiment numbers on gold and silver look toppy in the short term and that is another warning.
• Silver – After rallying $4 into Wednesday, silver gave us a sideways correction into the weekend. Silver is now breaking out above $24 Sunday evening – a weakening USD is lighting a fire under silver.
• Bonds – Bonds made a multi-week high at 181'22 last week and started an EW a-b-c correction – we could see a move lower on Monday.
• Crude Oil - Crude oil may have finished an EW a-b-c correction from $42.51 into Friday – we are bullish on oil stocks.
• Dollar Index – The USD remains in a confirmed downtrend below 94 – this is very bullish for silver.

   

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 7/27.

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – July 23, 2020

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: We were looking for an important week in the stock market and it started off with a high-energy New Moon Timing Window on 7/20-7/21 which gave us peaks in the SPX and NDX followed by an EW a-b-c correction that could end early Friday. The tepid move in the VIX today as the NDX led the market down makes us willing to buy the SPX and NDX early Friday on opening weakness. Gold tested $1900 today as silver turned lower after a $4 rally since 7/17. The USD continues to break lower which supports silver.

 

7/23/20 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX finished a B-Wave test of the Monday high at 3277 and started a C-Wave down that could end early Friday. Weakness in big tech led the market down today as money rotated out of tech stocks into value stocks (Russell 2000) or cash. Because of the tepid response in the VIX on the selloff today, our bias is that the SPX could bottom early Friday and then reverse into the close – we have another high-energy turn date on Monday. Our thought about the economic recovery stocks leading the SPX above 3500 is still on track as money flowed out of big tech this week – we think that oil stocks (XOM and CVX report earnings next week) and bank stocks could be the beneficiaries. Crude oil gave us a B-Wave test of $42.51 early Thursday before falling in a C-Wave down. Silver rallied $4 from last week until Wednesday evening and is being driven by a strong "reversion to mean" gold/silver ratio trade – silver easily eclipsed the 2016 early Tuesday and appears to be rallying in a powerful 3^rd wave higher from the March low. The USD is holding below 95 Thursday night which confirms a downtrend and is helping silver to build a head of steam.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX price action from the high of January 2018 to the low of March 2020 was a large Running B-Wave correction in Elliott Wave parlance – we are currently in a final 5^th wave higher that should end the bull market from March 2009 and reach 3500+. The E-mini tested 3284 pre-market Thursday and then fell in a C-Wave down to 3210 early Friday – we are close to finishing an EW a-b-c correction on the hourly E-mini chart from Monday.

 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold tested $1900 today before retreating as the PM stocks started to weaken. The weakening USD is building a head of steam in silver which should be bought on dips.

 

• Stocks –The SPX is close to finishing an EW a-b-c correction from Tuesday into early Friday – we are looking for a strong reversal higher early Friday. We are inclined to buy SPY calls on early weakness Friday.
• Gold – Gold tested $1900 Thursday as silver corrected – gold and silver may have started a consolidation. The DSI sentiment numbers on gold and silver look toppy in the short term.
• Silver – Silver rallied $4 from 7/17 and started a correction today – a weakening USD is lighting a fire under silver.
• Bonds – Bonds made a multi-week high at 181'22 as stocks pulled back– our B-Wave label was clearly wrong.
• Crude Oil - Crude oil made a B-Wave test of $42.51 early Thursday before sliding back in a C-Wave down that could bottom early Friday.
• Dollar Index – The USD remains in a confirmed downtrend below 95 – this is very bullish for silver.

   

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 7/20 and 7/22.

The Daily JDV Market Timer – July 22, 2020

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The E-mini took out Tuesday's low pre-market Wednesday and then reversed higher to make highs for the rally from the March low. The EW a-b-c correction into Wednesday is bullish for the intermediate trend. The initial jobless claim report early Thursday could be a market catalyst – expectations are for higher numbers (1.41 mil) than last week's 1.3 million. Silver continues to rally higher as the USD continues to break lower.

 

7/22/20 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX finished an EW a-b-c correction early Wednesday and we then rallied into the close – this is a bullish sign for the intermediate term. The E-mini is making rally highs in advance of the initial jobless claims report early Thursday. Our thought about the economic recovery stocks leading the SPX above 3500 is still on track – FCX reports early Thursday and could spark the materials stocks. Crude oil is bouncing back to test $42.51 late Wednesday – this is keeping the XLE well bid – the oil stocks have rotated into a leadership position. Silver spiked to $23.67 Wednesday evening and is being driven by a strong "reversion to mean" gold/silver ratio trade – silver easily eclipsed the 2016 early Tuesday and appears to be rallying in a powerful 3^rd wave higher from the March low. The USD is breaking below 95 Tuesday night which confirms a downtrend and is helping silver to build a head of steam.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX price action from the high of January 2018 to the low of March 2020 was a large Running B-Wave correction in Elliott Wave parlance – we are currently in a final 5^th wave higher that should end the bull market from March 2009 and reach 3500+. The E-mini is spiking to 3284 overnight – we are looking to buy dips in economic recovery stocks.

 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Silver is breaking out and closed above $23 on Wednesday – silver is in a powerful 3^rd wave higher that is being recognized by many. The weakening USD is building a head of steam in silver which should be bought on dips.

 

• Stocks –The E-mini finished a corrective pullback pre-market Wednesday and then the SPX rallied into the close – the intermediate trend is higher. We are inclined to buy the banks, oils or material stocks on weakness early Thursday.
• Gold – Gold is spiking to $1877 overnight– a quick move to $1900 is underway.
• Silver – Silver closed above $23 Wednesday – a weakening USD is lighting a fire under silver.
• Bonds – Bonds continued to grind higher in a B-Wave Wednesday – a C-Wave down is possible by Friday.
• Crude Oil - Crude oil is testing $42.51 overnight – this is rotating oil stocks into a leadership position.
• Dollar Index – The USD remains in a confirmed downtrend below 95 – this is very bullish for silver.

   

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 7/20 and 7/22.

The Daily JDV Market Timer – July 21, 2020

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX gave us a gap up open Tuesday morning in the New Moon Timing Window and ended weak but the IWM (Russell 2000) gave us a Positive Volume Reversal Day with much better breadth. Our option-based sentiment indicators gave us a sell signal, but we are inclined to buy early weakness in the SPX on Wednesday. Just an EW a-b-c correction into Wednesday is bullish for the intermediate trend. Silver is exploding higher overnight as the USD tests 95.

 

7/21/20 (Commentary for Tuesday) The IWM was the strongest index today as the "market breadth" returned and money flowed back from tech to the economic recovery stocks (banks and oils). Still, the SPX appears to be pulling back in an EW a-b-c correction that could bottom early Wednesday – we are inclined to be a buyer of the banks, oils and material stocks. Our thought about the economic recovery stocks leading the SPX above 3500 is still on track – the market rally did broaden out on Tuesday – market breadth has been leading the SPX higher. Crude oil spiked to $42.51 early Tuesday in the New Moon Window and made post-crash highs – the oil stocks have rotated into a leadership position. Silver is spiking to $23 overnight and is being driven by a strong "reversion to mean" gold/silver ratio trade – silver easily eclipsed the 2016 early Tuesday and appears to be rallying in a powerful 3^rd wave higher from the March low. The USD is testing 95 Tuesday night which confirms a downtrend and is helping silver to build a head of steam.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX price action from the high of January 2018 to the low of March 2020 was a large Running B-Wave correction in Elliott Wave parlance – we are currently in a final 5^th wave higher that should end the bull market from March 2009 and reach 3500+. The SPX spiked to a post-crash high at 3277 early Tuesday before a pullback took hold – we are looking to buy dips in economic recovery stocks early Wednesday.

 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) –Silver broke out and closed above $20 on Monday – this started a melt up to $23 Tuesday evening – silver is in a powerful 3^rd wave higher that is being recognized by many. The weakening USD is building a head of steam in silver which should be bought on dips.

 

• Stocks –The SPX spiked to a post-crash high of 3577 early Tuesday, but the Russell 2000 was the star today and helped bring "market breadth" back. We are inclined to buy the banks, oils or material stocks on weakness early Wednesday.
• Gold – Gold spiked above $1830 early Tuesday and is testing $1866 Tuesday evening – a quick move to $1900 looks likely.
• Silver – Silver closed above $20 Monday, and this started a melt up to $23 Tuesday evening – a weakening USD is lighting a fire under silver.
• Bonds – Bonds continue to trace out a sideways B-Wave – a C-Wave down is possible by Friday.
• Crude Oil - Crude oil took out $41.63 in the 7/20-7/21 New Moon Timing Window and spiked to $42.51 – this has caused oil stocks to rotate into a leadership position.
• Dollar Index – The USD remains in a confirmed downtrend below 96 – this is very bullish for silver.

   

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 7/20 and 7/22.

The Daily JDV Market Timer – July 20, 2020

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX closed above 3258 today and has clearly broken out above 3238 horizontal resistance on today's New Moon. However, this "negative breath" rally was mainly the work of TSLA, AMZN and the IBB and could have been a final thrust higher. How we trade into Wednesday will enlighten us on the intermediate trend. Just a corrective SPX pullback into Wednesday will be bullish.

 

7/20/20 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX rallied into Monday's New Moon as expected but market breath was negative - money flowed back from the economic recovery stocks (banks, oils and materials) into TSLA, AMZN and the IBB (the vaccine stocks). Our thought about the economic recovery stocks leading the SPX above 3500 was seriously challenged today – we'll see if the market rally can broaden out on Tuesday – market breadth had been leading the SPX higher. Crude oil is still poised to take out $41.68 early Tuesday. Silver closed above $20 and is being driven by a strong "reversion to mean" gold/silver ratio trade – a run up to test the 2016 high at $21.36 is possible. The USD continues to hold below 96 into Monday night which confirms a downtrend and is helping silver to build a head of steam.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX price action from the high of January 2018 to the low of March 2020 was a large Running B-Wave correction in Elliott Wave parlance – we are currently in a final 5^th wave higher that should end the bull market from March 2009 and reach 3500+. In the near term, the SPX grinded to a rally high at 3238 on Wednesday and then started a sideways correction into Sunday/Monday – we are looking for a spike higher into Monday/Tuesday.

 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Silver made a new 52-week high to $19.87 on Wednesday before starting an EW a-b-c correction that ended Thursday. Silver broke out and closed above $20 – a move to test the 2016 high at $21.36 is likely. The weakening USD is building a head of steam in silver which should be bought on dips.

 

• Stocks –The SPX closed far above 3238 but market breath narrowed as money flowed back to technology – how the SPX corrects into Wednesday will be enlightening.
• Gold – Gold tested $1830 on today's New Moon – a break above $1830 Tuesday will argue for a quick move to $1900.
• Silver – Silver closed above $20 – a weakening USD is lighting a fire under silver.
• Bonds – Bonds are tracing out a sideways B-Wave – a C-Wave down is possible on Tuesday.
• Crude Oil - Crude oil broke out of a wedge pattern on the daily chart – we could take out $41.63 by the 7/20-7/21 New Moon Timing Window.
• Dollar Index – The USD remains in a confirmed downtrend below 96 – this is very bullish for silver.

   

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 7/20 and 7/21.

The Weekly JDV Market Timing – July 19, 2020

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: This will be a key week for several markets. Although, the E-mini is down Sunday night, more vaccine news could spike us up into the 7/20-7/21 New Moon Timing Window and above horizontal resistance at SPX 3235-3238. Money has rotated from the NDX into the banks, oil stocks and materials stocks and this means that the market is expecting to hear some good news for the economy this week. Our SPX cycles inverted last week, and the 7/9-7/10 turn was a high instead of a low – this argues for a possible bullish run into late July. Since the New Moon is on 7/20, we could see the SPX at rally highs above 3238 resistance by Tuesday.

 

7/19/20 (Commentary for Sunday) The SPX has been tracking sideways since the post-March high at 3238 on Wednesday into the New Moon Timing Window and we are expecting a pop higher into Monday/Tuesday. Money is flowing from technology stocks into the economic recovery stocks of the banks, oil stocks and the materials stocks – this group could lead the SPX to a final blowoff higher to 3500. Bank stocks held up after earnings and are rotating into a leadership position – how we trade after the New Moon Timing Window will be key. Market breadth is leading the SPX higher and the Russell 2000 broke higher out of its wedge last week. Crude oil tracked sideways into Sunday and looks ready to break higher above $41.68 on Monday/Tuesday. Gold and silver both finished an EW a-b-c correction into Thursday and appear to be coiling for a spike into Monday. The USD continues to hold below 96 into early Monday which confirms a downtrend and is helping silver to build a head of steam.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX price action from the high of January 2018 to the low of March 2020 was a large Running B-Wave correction in Elliott Wave parlance – we are currently in a final 5^th wave higher that should end the bull market from March 2009 and reach 3500+. In the near term, the SPX grinded to a rally high at 3238 on Wednesday and then started a sideways correction into Sunday/Monday – we are looking for a spike higher into Monday/Tuesday.

 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Silver made a new 52-week high to $19.87 on Wednesday before starting an EW a-b-c correction that ended Thursday. We are grinding higher for at least a B-wave test of $19.87 on Monday. The weakening USD is building a head of steam in silver which should be bought on dips.

 

• Stocks –We are impressed that money is rotating into the bank sector after earnings and that the energy stocks and material stocks continue to lead higher. A close above 3238 by Tuesday's close would be bullish for a run into 7/27.
• Gold – Gold ended an EW a-b-c correction into Thursday and is coiling for a spike on Monday – taking out $1830 should give us a fast move to $1900.
• Silver – Silver made a new 52-wk high at $19.87 Wednesday evening and started a pullback that ended Thursday – a weakening USD is starting to light a fire under silver.
• Bonds – Bonds appear close to a C-Wave down off the peak at 181'14.
• Crude Oil - Crude oil broke out of a wedge pattern on the daily chart – we could take out $41.63 by the 7/20 New Moon.
• Dollar Index – The USD remains in a confirmed downtrend below 96 – this is very bullish for silver.

   

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 7/20 and 7/21.