All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer – June 30, 2020

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Despite a weaker than expected Chicago PMI number, the SPX built on yesterday's rally and gave us 5-waves up on the hourly chart from late Friday into Tuesday's close. The SPX also took out Thursday's high at 3088 and that confirmed the correction low at 3004.83 late Friday. However, after 5-waves up we could see a pullback into the Fed minutes announcement at 2:00 PM EDT. Crude oil took out Monday's high before correcting – we are looking for a big run higher into the Full Moon weekend that could surpass $41.68. Gold popped higher to another 7-yr high at $1804 before the Powell/Mnunchin testimony – a pullback into Wednesday's FOMC minutes is expected. The USD made a higher high at 97.80 before reversing down after the open.

 

6/30/20 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX rallied despite the weaker than expected Chicago PMI and the rally was broad-based – all market sectors were higher for the day. The SPX took out 3088 as it spiked into the close and that confirmed that a correction low was made at 3004.83 late Friday. Still, the SPX finished 5-waves up on the hourly chart into Tuesday's close and we are expecting a pullback into the Fed minutes release at 2:00 PM EDT Wednesday. Crude oil took out Monday's high near $40 and then corrected but we are still looking for a run into the Full Moon weekend. Gold broke out to $1804 before the testimony of Mnuchin/Powell on Tuesday and is correcting sideways into early Wednesday. The USD made a high for the day at 97.8 at the open before declining into the close – this gave a boost to the PM sector.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX price action from the high of January 2018 to the low of March 2020 was a large Running B-Wave correction in Elliott Wave parlance. June 15 was the end of Wave A down of an EW a-b-c correction in the NDX– we may have seen a B-Wave top on 6/23 and a C-Wave down that finished on 6/26. We are looking for a run higher to SPX 3500+ by September.

 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold broke out above $1800 and tested $1804 before tracking sideways into Wednesday. We may see a pullback into the Fed minutes Wednesday afternoon. The GDX made a breakout above 35. Seasonality goes strongly positive for gold in early July.

 

• Stocks – The SPX shook off a weaker than expected Chicago PMI number and finished an EW 5-wave rally into Tuesday's close. The Powell/Mnuchin testimony Tuesday at noon did not throw any curves at the market – we moved above SPX 3088 late in the session and that confirmed the correction from 6/9 is over. We are holding NEM and GOLD calls after the GDX breakout today.
• Gold – Gold made a breakout to $1804 today and the GDX made a breakout above 35 – we are expecting a corrective pullback into the Fed minutes release Wednesday afternoon.
• Silver – Silver outperformed gold today but is still below the recent peak at $18.95 – this is a bearish non-confirmation so far of gold's breakout today. We will see if silver can take out $18.95 by the weekend's Full Moon.
• Bonds – Bonds finished a 5-wave rally from its breakout and started pulling back – we could test the S1 support pivot at 177'14.
• Crude Oil - Crude oil took out Monday's high above $40 and then corrected – a break above $41.68 is possible into the Full Moon Weekend.
• Dollar Index – The USD peaked at 97.8 at the open and then pulled back hard giving the PM sector a boost.

   

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 6/29 and 7/1.

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – June 29, 2020

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The E-mini only bounced correctively Sunday night and prepared us for a possible wave 3 of C down in the SPX. However, after an early head fake down, the SPX rallied into the close. However, Monday's rally volume was light and the pattern of the rally in the E-mini from Friday's close still looks corrective - we need to see the SPX take out 3088 to confirm an important low. Crude oil surprised us and rallied from oversold technicals to test $40 again – it is possible that crude oil could make a run higher into the Full Moon Timing Window this weekend and take out $41.63. Gold continued to move sideways from Friday's high into Tuesday's testimony from Powell and Mnuchin – a run higher to test $1800 into the Full Moon weekend is possible. The USD bounced higher but continues to hold up around 97.5.

 

6/29/20 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX gave us a rally day Monday on the strong housing number, but once again the financials diverged into weakness despite BAC, C, GS, and MS reaffirming their dividends. Still, we need a SPX rally above 3088 to convince us that the correction is over, and the next rally phase is in play. Crude oil tested $40 Monday and could be at the start of a run into the Full Moon weekend. Gold continued its sideways consolidation from Friday's high into the testimony of Mnuchin/Powell on Tuesday – we may have seen an important low on Friday that could lead to another test of $1800 by Thursday. The USD looks resilient Monday night and looks set to test 97.7 Tuesday morning.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX price action from the high of January 2018 to the low of March 2020 was a large Running B-Wave correction in Elliott Wave parlance. June 15 was the end of Wave A down of an EW a-b-c correction in the NDX– we may have seen a B-Wave top on 6/23 and a C-Wave down that may have finished on 6/26. We are looking for a run higher to SPX 3500+ by September.

 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold tested $1754 on Friday and staged a $30 reversal higher into the close – we may have started another leg up to test $1800 by Friday/Saturday's Full Moon Timing Window. Seasonality goes strongly positive for gold in early July.

 

• Stocks – After a shaky start, the SPX gave us a rally day which spiked into the close despite weakness in the bank sector. The Powell/Mnuchin testimony Tuesday at noon could be a market mover – a move above SPX 3088 would confirm the correction from 6/9 is over.
• Gold – Gold continued a sideways consolidation from Friday's high – we may have started the next run higher to test $1800 by the weekend.
• Silver – Silver continued sideways while the SIL(silver stocks) continues to lead which is bullish for the PM sector.
• Bonds – Bonds continue the break-out rally from the wedge last week – TLT may be the play.
• Crude Oil - Crude oil tested $40 on Monday and we may be coiling for a run into the Full Moon weekend– a break above $41.68 is possible this week.
• Dollar Index – The USD remains resilient and is targeting 97.7 by early Tuesday.

   

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 6/29 and 7/1.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer – June 28, 2020

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The negative reaction to the Fed's stress test of US banks and the big increase in COVID-19 cases in the south gave stocks a 1-2 punch on Friday and drove the SPX done to test SPX 3000 support. Negative Volume Reversal days for both the SPY and QQQ could give us follow through down early Monday. Crude oil looks oversold Sunday night but could still target the $36.87-$37 range early Monday. Gold washed out to $1754 early Friday and then staged a $30 reversal higher into the close – we may have finished an EW a-b-c correction last week and appear to be coiling for a run above $1800 early Monday. The USD may have finished a drawn-out EW a-b-c correction but continues to hold up around 97.5.

 

6/28/20 (Commentary for Sunday) A negative reaction to the Fed's bank stress test announcement after Thursday's close set the market up for a big down day on Friday. Secondary closings in the south due to a spike in COVID-19 cases also weighed heavy on the market. The E-mini is just bouncing correctively Sunday night and that could lead to weakness early Monday. We need to be on the lookout for a possible sub-division down to a Wave 3 on the SPX early Monday - a heaving-volume break below SPX 3000 would be a tell-tale sign of a big flush. Crude oil could target $37 early Monday or the pivot at $36.87 which would give us 5-waves down on the hourly chart. Gold washed out to $1754 early Friday and then gave us a $30 reversal into the close – we may have seen an important low on Friday that could lead to another test of $1800 early Monday. The USD gave us a 3-wave pullback from Friday and looks ready to reverse higher and test 97.5 again early Monday.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX price action from the high of January 2018 to the low of March 2020 was a large Running B-Wave correction in Elliott Wave parlance. June 15 was the end of Wave A down of an EW a-b-c correction in the NDX– we may have seen a B-Wave top on 6/23 and a C-Wave down start on 6/24 which could extend down into Monday.

 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold tested $1754 on Friday and staged a $30 reversal higher into the close – we may have started another leg up to test $1800 on Monday. Seasonality goes strongly positive for gold in early July.

 

• Stocks – The bank stocks led the SPX down to test 3000 on Friday and the E-mini is only bouncing correctively Sunday night – a high-volume break below 3000 on Monday could indicative the start of a Wave 3 of C down.
• Gold – Gold washed out to $1754 on Friday before staging a $30 reversal higher into the close and – we may have started the next run higher to test $1800 early Monday.
• Silver – Silver closed near weekly highs on Friday and the silver stocks are leading which is bullish.
• Bonds - Bonds broke out of wedge pattern on the hourly chart last week – TLT may be the play.
• Crude Oil - Crude oil could test $37 early Monday – touching $36.87 would give us 5-waves down on the hourly chart.
• Dollar Index – The USD is coiling Sunday night for another bounce to 97.5.

   

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 6/29 and 7/1.

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – June 25, 2020

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Led by the bank stocks, the SPX gave us a rally day Thursday, but the outcome of the Fed's stress test released post-market may inhibit the banks from returning capital to shareholders in the form of dividends or stock buybacks. Thursday looked like a corrective bounce for the SPX after Wednesday's strong decline. Crude oil also bounced correctively on Thursday and we are looking for a test of $37 on Friday. Gold made a lower low for the pullback and touched $1765 before moving sideways into the evening. The USD continues to hold up around 97.5 Thursday evening.

 

6/25/20 (Commentary for Thursday) Hopes of a positive "stress test" got the banks rallying early and it accelerated into the close. The bank stocks carried the SPX to a positive day with the NYSE breadth making highs for the day just before the close. However, the Fed announcement after the stress test post market cast doubt about the bank stocks ability to return capital to shareholders for the balance of 2020 and this could pressure the market down early Friday. Today's corrective bounce on the SPX argues for lower lows early Friday. Crude oil also bounced today, but it looked corrective, and we could see a test of $37 on Friday. Gold continued its pullback and tested $1765 early before tracking sideways into the evening. The USD continued to hold up around 97.5 into the evening and may be basing for another leg higher. Strong, impulsive action here in the USD would argue for a short-term high in gold.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX price action from the high of January 2018 to the low of March 2020 was a large Running B-Wave correction in Elliott Wave parlance. The NDX made a new all-time on 6/10 and has traced out a bullish "cup and handle" into the New Moon/solar eclipse – this is bullish. June 15 was the end of Wave A down of an EW a-b-c correction in the NDX– we may have seen a B-Wave top on Tuesday and a C-Wave down start on Wednesday.

 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold and silver gave us important lows on 6/18 and gold bounced to a 8-year high at $1796 early Wednesday while the GDX/GLD ratio continues to move higher – this is bullish action. Silver is outperforming gold Thursday night.

 

• Stocks – The bank stocks led the SPX higher today, but the move looked corrective, and we could see another test of SPX 3000 on Friday.
• Gold – Gold pulled back to $1765 early Thursday and we treaded sideways into the evening. The break higher in the GDX/GLD ratio is bullish for the PM sector.
• Silver – Silver is outperforming gold here and the silver stocks are leading – we added CDE today.
• Bonds - Bonds are breaking out of a wedge pattern on the hourly chart – TLT may be the play.
• Crude Oil - Crude oil filled the March gap at $41.63 on Tuesday and declined into early Thursday before bouncing.
• Dollar Index – The USD continues to hold up around 97.5 Thursday evening and we could see another leg higher early Friday.

   

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 6/22 and 6/24.

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – June 24, 2020

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The sell signals we got on Monday came to fruition Wednesday as the soaring COVID-19 infection rates in some southern states started spooking the market after a speculative run up into Monday's New Moon Timing Window. Monday was a 13-day Fibonacci step out from the 6/9 high and we got a short-term top early in the week. The selloff Wednesday was broad-based with all 11 market sectors down and all the major commodities lower. Crude oil tested $41.63 and entirely filled that gap from March before selling off into today. Gold tested $1796 pre-market, an 8-year high, and sold off $24 into the late afternoon – the GDX held up better than most market sectors. The USD rallied hard today as everything else got sold off.

 

6/24/20 (Commentary for Wednesday) Monday's Option Premium Ratio sell signal came through today with a big selloff. The SPX did give us a B-Wave test of the high on Monday and we may have started a C-Wave down that could undercut 2900 on a symmetry correction. Just a corrective bounce on the SPX on Thursday will argue for lower lows to come. After 5-waves higher on the hourly chart, crude oil touched $41.63 pre-market Tuesday and filled the gap from March on the continuous chart – we then sold off hard today like every major commodity. After a 3-wave correction from Monday's high, gold powered up into early Wednesday and made an 8-year high at $1796 – large real-time prints came in early today at IAU 16.98 which is an important gold proxy. The USD soared today and is looking to test 97.5 again. Strong, impulsive action here in the USD would argue for a short-term high in gold.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX price action from the high of January 2018 to the low of March 2020 was a large Running B-Wave correction in Elliott Wave parlance. The NDX made a new all-time on 6/10 and has traced out a bullish "cup and handle" into the New Moon/solar eclipse – this is bullish. June 15 was the end of Wave A down of an EW a-b-c correction in the NDX– we may have seen a B-Wave top on Tuesday.

 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold and silver gave us important lows on 6/18 and gold bounced to a 8-year high at $1796 early Wednesday while the GDX/GLD ratio continues to move higher – this is bullish action.

 

• Stocks – The SPX appears to need an undercut low early Thursday to finish 5-waves down on the hourly chart – how we rally after that will be enlightening.
• Gold – Gold pulled back correctively from Monday's high and then made an 8-year high at $1796 early Wednesday. The break higher in the GDX/GLD ratio is bullish for the PM sector.
• Silver – Silver stocks(SIL) held up well with the broad-based market selloff today and should continue to pull silver higher.
• Bonds - Bonds may be breaking out of a coil pattern on the hourly chart – TLT may be the play.
• Crude Oil - Crude oil filled the March gap at $41.63 and started a decline into Wednesday.
• Dollar Index – The USD bounced hard today and looks to test 97.5 again.

   

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 6/22 and 6/24.

The Daily JDV Market Timer – June 23, 2020

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX and NDX recovered from Peter Navarro's post-market comments Monday but ended up closing hard late today. The sell signals we got on Monday are keeping us a little cautious here. Monday was a 13-day Fibonacci step out from the 6/9 high and we may have seen a short-term top today early in the week. Crude oil tested $41.63 after tracing out 5-waves higher on the hourly chart – this is also suggestive of a stock market pullback. Gold tested $1791.8 late Tuesday - a high for the year. The weight of several Dark Pool prints in GLD and SLV late Tuesday argue for a potential breakout on Wednesday. The GDX continued its rally and the GDX/GLD continued to move higher which is bullish for the PM sector. The USD continued to fall and traced out 5-waves down on Tuesday before a bounce.

 

6/23/20 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX and NDX recovered from Peter Navarro's bearish comments late Monday and gave us a gap-up open on Tuesday with the help of AAPL. However, stocks came in for a hard close which makes us cautious after the "sell signals" we got on Monday. Market internals weakened further on Tuesday as the McClellan Oscillator went negative during the day. After 5-waves higher on the hourly chart, crude oil tested $41.63 pre-market Tuesday and sold off during the day which also suggested some market weakness lies ahead. After a 3-wave correction from Monday's high, gold powered up Tuesday and made highs for the year at $1791.8 in the evening – large Dark Pool prints in silver and gold came in near the close today and argue for a "breakout attempt" on Wednesday. The USD declined in 5-waves on the hourly and touched 96.38 before a bounce – the USD has started a downtrend.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX price action from the high of January 2018 to the low of March 2020 was a large Running B-Wave correction in Elliott Wave parlance. The NDX made a new all-time on 6/10 and has traced out a bullish "cup and handle" into the New Moon/solar eclipse – this is bullish. June 15 was the end of Wave A down of an EW a-b-c correction in the NDX– we may have seen a B-Wave top on Tuesday.

 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold and silver gave us important lows on 6/18 and gold bounced to a new high for the year at $1791.8 while the GDX/GLD ratio continues to move higher – this is bullish action.

 

• Stocks – The SPX and NDX gapped up today and rallied on negative market breadth early – we closed hard late in the day. We are cautious here with financials not leading.
• Gold – Gold pulled back correctively from Monday's high and then made a new high for the year at $1791.8 – late Dark Pool prints in GLD Tuesday afternoon argue for a breakout attempt early Wednesday. The break higher in the GDX/GLD ratio is bullish for the PM sector.
• Silver – Silver stocks(SIL) are leading the metal higher here and late Dark Pool prints today in SLV argue for a breakout attempt on Wednesday.
• Bonds - Bonds may be finishing an EW a-b-c correction on Tuesday night.
• Crude Oil - Crude oil made a new recovery high at $41.63 early Tuesday before a reversal down.
• Dollar Index – The USD tested 97.7 in a double zig-zag corrective bounce Sunday night and turned down impulsively on Monday. The trend in the USD is turning down and the US dollar/Yen may be about to break down.

   

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 6/22 and 6/24.

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – June 22, 2020

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The NDX finished Monday at a new closing high in the New Moon Timing Window, but we got a sell signal in our Option Premium Ratio indicator which makes us cautious going into Tuesday. Monday was a 13-day Fibonacci step out from the 6/9 high and we may have seen a short-term top today. Crude oil is making a new recovery high at $41.24 Monday night– this is bullish. Gold tested the $1789 4/14 high Monday but left a Doji (indecision) candlestick – the GDX gave us a gap higher that wasn't filled – we could see a pullback into Wednesday. The USD broke above 97.7 Sunday evening in a 3-wave corrective bounce but fell impulsively on Monday – did we finish an EW a-b-c bounce higher on the hourly chart?

 

6/22/20 (Commentary for Monday) The NDX made a new closing high on Monday, and this may be the end of a B-Wave test of the 6/10 high. Market internals appeared to weaken Monday as the % of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-dma continues to drop below 50% into Monday, and the E-mini only traced out a 3-wave correction from late Friday into Monday. Crude oil tested $41.24 on Monday evening and only gave us a 3-wave correction – this is bullish. Gold and silver made correction lows on Thursday and reversed higher into Monday –gold tested 4/14 high at $1789 but ended the day with a Doji candlestick which indicates uncertainty. The USD tested 97.77 Sunday evening on a double zig-zag corrective bounce – is this a corrective high? The USD appears to be declining impulsively which is bullish for the PM sector.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX price action from the high of January 2018 to the low of March 2020 was a large Running B-Wave correction in Elliott Wave parlance. The NDX made a new all-time on 6/10 and has traced out a bullish "cup and handle" into the New Moon/solar eclipse – this is bullish. June 15 was the end of Wave A down of an EW a-b-c correction in the NDX– we may have seen a B-Wave top today.

 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Silver and gold gave us important lows on 6/18 and gold bounced to test the 4/14 high at $1789 while gold stocks (GDX) gapped up above its down trendline. Gold finished Monday with a Doji (indecision candle) which allows for more pullback into Wednesday.

 

• Stocks – The SPX finished an EW a-b-c correction from early 6/16 to late Friday – then we got a 3-wave bounce into Monday's New Moon Timing Window – we may have seen a short-term high today.
• Gold – Gold coiled into early Thursday and broke higher to test the 4/14 high at $1789 but ended the day with a Doji candlestick – the break higher in the GDX/GLD ratio is bullish for the PM sector.
• Silver – Unlike gold, silver failed to take out its pre-market high for a "bearish divergence" and pulled back into the close. However, the SIL(silver stocks) remained strong which is bullish for the PM sector.
• Bonds - Bonds are 5-waves higher since early 6/16 on the hourly chart and continue to look bullish.
• Crude Oil - Crude oil made a new recovery high at $41.24 Monday night before a 3-wave correction which is bullish for higher prices.
• Dollar Index – The USD tested 97.7 in a double zig-zag corrective bounce Sunday night and turned down impulsively on Monday. The trend in the USD is turning down and the US dollar/Yen may be about to break down.

   

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 6/22 and 6/24.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer – June 21, 2020

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX made its high for the week early Friday before declining into the close. However, the E-mini has only declined in 3-waves from early Tuesday into Sunday evening and is bouncing into Monday. Our bias is for another leg up in the SPX to finish a B-Wave off the 6/15 low. Our Big Picture is that the SPX is blowing off in a final 5^th wave higher in the bull market that started in March 2009 – the irrational exuberance is rivaling what we witnessed in the first half of 2000. The SPX could blast to a new SPX high above 3400 in the next six weeks, but we could see some volatility in the near term. Crude oil tested 40.6 on Friday and is only correcting in 3-waves into early Monday – this is bullish. Gold tested $1777 early Sunday evening and is staging a breakout – a break above the R1 pivot at $1782 early Monday would be bullish. The USD broke above 97.7 Sunday evening – did we finish an EW a-b-c bounce higher on the hourly chart?

 

6/21/20 (Commentary for Sunday) Friday was a choppy, volatile day and the SPX made a high for the week early in the session before selling off into the close. Market internals appear to be weakening as the % of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-dma dropped sharply below 50% on Friday, but the E-mini only traced out a 3-wave correction from early Tuesday into Sunday evening and is bouncing early Monday. Crude oil tested $40.6 on Friday and is only correcting in 3-waves into Monday – this is bullish. Gold and silver made correction lows on Thursday and reversed higher into Friday – gold tested $1777 Sunday evening and is close to a breakout. The USD tested 97.77 Sunday evening in a 3-wave bounce – is this a corrective high? The USD appears on track to weaken substantially against the Yen.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX price action from the high of January 2018 to the low of March 2020 was a large Running B-Wave correction in Elliott Wave parlance. The NDX made a new all-time on 6/10 and has traced out a bullish "cup and handle" into the New Moon/solar eclipse – this is bullish. June 15 may have seen the end of Wave A down of an EW a-b-c correction in the SPX– we could see a B-Wave bounce into the coming week.

 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Silver and gold gave us important lows on 6/18 and are coiling to break out early Monday. A break above gold $1775 early Monday could kickstart a melt up into mid-July.

 

• Stocks – The SPX may have finished an EW a-b-c correction from early Tuesday to late Friday – the E-mini is rallying higher early Monday.
• Gold – Gold coiled into early Thursday and broke higher after the New Moon/solar eclipse – a move above $1777 early Monday would be a breakout.
• Silver – Silver is taking out $17.9 Sunday night and this could be the start of a run up into July.
• Bonds - Bonds are 5-waves higher since early 6/16 on the hourly chart and look bullish.
• Crude Oil - Crude oil tested $40.6 on Friday but only gave us a 3-wave correction past the weekend New Moon/solar eclipse – this is bullish.
• Dollar Index – The USD tested 97.7 in a 3-wave move higher – is this a corrective high? The trend in the USD is turning down and the US dollar/Yen may be about to break down.

   

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 6/22 and 6/24.

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – June 18, 2020

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: For Thursday, the SPX traded sideways in a tight channel as we approach Friday's Triple Witching expiration and few of our trading setups were activated. But we are expecting big volatility as we enter the New Moon/solar eclipse Timing Window Friday. Our bias is for another leg up to finish a B-Wave off the 6/15 low. Our Big Picture is that the SPX is blowing off in a final 5^th wave higher in the bull market that started in March 2009 – the irrational exuberance is rivaling what we witnessed in the first half of 2000. The SPX could blast to a new SPX high above 3400 in the next six weeks, but we could see some volatility in the near term. Crude oil finished an EW a-b-c correction early Monday and is running up to test 40.3, the R1 Pivot, on Friday. Gold tested $1750 pre-market Thursday and then pulled back to the S1 pivot at $1723 – we are expecting a break higher by Friday/Monday. The USD tested 97.5 again and we started rolling over – we are looking for a potential breakdown in the US dollar/yen soon.

 

6/18/20 (Commentary for Thursday) Thursday was the third consolidation day after the big rally on Monday for the SPX and we are expecting big volatility on Friday's Triple Witching expiration. The E-mini may have finished an EW a-b-c correction early Thursday and we are now reversing higher into the high-energy 6/19-6/21 turn window. Crude oil finished an EW a-b-c correction on Monday and is making a run to test $40.3 into the weekend. Gold and silver may have made correction lows on Thursday and are reversing higher early Friday – a break above $1750 would be bullish for gold. The USD tested 97.5 for the third time this week and may now be rolling over. The USD appears on track to weaken substantially against the Yen.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX price action from the high of January 2018 to the low of March 2020 was a large Running B-Wave correction in Elliott Wave parlance. The NDX made a new all-time high last week and the SPX still could by late summer. Early Monday may have seen the end of Wave A down of an EW a-b-c correction – we could see a B-Wave bounce into the weekend New Moon.

 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Silver and gold gave us another undercut low Monday that may have cemented important lows before a big summer rally. It was bullish that the GDX outperformed gold on Monday. A break above gold $1754 could kickstart a melt up into mid-July.

 

• Stocks – Wednesday was the third day of consolidation for the huge rally on Monday. The E-mini may have finished an EW a-b-correction early Thursday and could reverse up into the 6/19-6/21 New Moon/solar eclipse.
• Gold – Gold has been coiling sideways since Monday night and may have ended its correction early Thursday – a break above $1750 early Friday will be bullish and perhaps the start of a big run up into July.
• Silver – Silver gave us 5-waves down on the hourly to test $17 and may have finished a large EW a-b-c correction early Monday. Taking out $17.9 could be the start of a run up into July.
• Bonds - Bonds may need a C-Wave down to finish a 3-wave correction.
• Crude Oil - Crude oil may have made its low for the week at $34.36 Sunday evening and may have started a run to test $40 into the weekend New Moon/solar eclipse.
• Dollar Index – The USD tested 97.5 for the third time this week – the trend in the USD is turning down and the US dollar/Yen may be about to break down.

   

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 6/15 and 6/19.

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – June 17, 2020

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Wednesday was a second consolidation day for the SPX – the E-mini has now come close to finishing an EW a-b-c correction of the high from Monday. The SPX could run up into the 6/19-6/21 New Moon/solar eclipse in a B-Wave but a decline into this turn window would be bullish for Monday. Our Big Picture is that the SPX is blowing off in a final 5^th wave higher in the bull market that started in March 2009 – the irrational exuberance is rivaling what we witnessed in the first half of 2000. The SPX could blast to a new SPX high above 3400 in the next six weeks. Crude oil finished an EW a-b-c correction from early Monday and is basing for a rally to test $40 into the weekend's New Moon. Gold is correcting sideways from Monday evening and appears to be coiling for a run into Friday/Monday – a break above $1742 will be bullish. The USD gave us a 3-wave rally to test 97.5 again and we may start to rollover – we are looking for a potential breakdown in the US dollar/yen soon.

 

6/17/20 (Commentary for Wednesday) Wednesday was the second consolidation day after the big rally on Monday for the SPX. The E-mini could finish an EW a-b-c correction by early Thursday – we could still reverse higher and get a big ounce into the high-energy 6/19-6/21 turn window. Crude oil finished an EW a-b-c correction on Monday and is coiling to make a run to test $40 into the weekend. Gold and silver appear to be coiling sideways for a breakout – a break above $1742 would be bullish for gold. The USD tested 97.5 is a 3-wave bounce and may now be rolling over. USD appears on track to weaken substantially against the Yen.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX price action from the high of January 2018 to the low of March 2020 was a large Running B-Wave correction in Elliott Wave parlance. The NDX made a new all-time high last week and the SPX still could by late summer. Early Monday may have seen the end of Wave A down of an EW a-b-c correction – we could see a B-Wave bounce into the weekend New Moon.

 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Silver and gold gave us another undercut low Monday that may have cemented important lows before a big summer rally. It was bullish that the GDX outperformed gold on Monday. A break above $1754 could kickstart a melt up into the weekend New Moon.

 

• Stocks – Wednesday was the second day of consolidation for the huge rally on Monday. The E-mini may be finishing an EW a-b-correction into early Thursday and could reverse up tomorrow for a run up into the weekend.
• Gold – Gold has been coiling sideways since Monday night – a break above $1742 will be bullish and perhaps the start of a run up into the weekend New Moon/solar eclipse.
• Silver – Silver gave us 5-waves down on the hourly to test $17 and may have finished a large EW a-b-c correction early Monday. Taking out $17.77 could be the start of a run up into the weekend New Moon/solar eclipse.
• Bonds - Bonds finished an EW a-b-c correction on the hourly and we are looking for a bounce on Thursday.
• Crude Oil - Crude oil may have made its low for the week at $34.36 Sunday evening and may have started a run to test $40 into the weekend New Moon/solar eclipse.
• Dollar Index – The USD tested 97.5 in a C-Wave of an EW a-b-c correction – the trend in the USD is down and the US dollar/Yen may be about to break down.

   

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 6/15 and 6/19.