All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 29, 2020

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  On the latest update on GILD's therapeutic treatment for COVID-19 the SPX gave us another big gap-up open and the Russell 2000 gained 5% for the day. The SPX and NDX are rallying in 5-waves up on the daily chart from the 3/23 low on the daily chart and the market breadth continues to expand - this is BULLISH. In fact, the increase in breadth and volume argues that the SPX could be in a wave 3 higher - this count argues that marginal new highs may be possible into the fall. However, this is a Presidential election year and the cycle argues for weakness in early May, so some correction may be expected over the next week. The Fed's bazooka and Powell's promise of "continual reload" is giving traders a growing confidence in a V-shaped recovery in the stock market that could test highs in the summer. Gold based going into Tuesday's Comex option expiration and Wednesday's Fed press conference but traders stepped up to buy late Wednesday which is encouraging for the bulls. The fact that GDX made a weekly close above the multi-year 32 resistance is huge for gold investors and pullbacks in gold stocks should be bought.

4/29/20 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX closed above the .618 retracement on increasing market breadth - it was especially impressive that the Russell 2000 gained 5% today. The Fed is determined to re-inflate the stock market and is willing to risk a bout of hyperinflation to accomplish this. Michigan Sentiment Index dropped to only 70% which is far higher that at the 2002-2003 and 2008-2009 lows and is consistent with the longer-term sentiment numbers from the Whisper Number Confidence Report - this reflects a massive confidence by traders that the Fed can re-inflate the stock market to test the highs. For Thursday, daily cycles have us looking for a SPX pullback in anticipation of after-market earnings from AMZN and AAPL. Crude oil tested $10 Tuesday and soared on Wednesday to $17 on confidence of a treatment for the COVID-19 - the oil stocks(XLE) continue to lead oil higher. Powell's testimony further steeled the bulls as he showed his determination to maintain ample liquidity to the stock and credit markets. The financials continued their rally from Friday as hopes continue to stir for a quick economic recovery. We have argued that the COVID-19 health crisis would be followed by a series of rolling financial challenges that could include the breakdown of the global derivative pyramid - even if the Fed can gun the SPX to a new all-time this summer in a V recovery, we feel that the economy will badly lag. Gold held the $1700 level through Comex option expiration Tuesday and the Fed press conference, and it was bullish that the PM sector closed strong today. The USD sold off  some as the Fed promised more debasement. 

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX made a Major High on 2/19 and perhaps the high for the year - years ending in "0" made a January/February high about 83% of the time. The SPX continues to grind higher as it closed above the 50-dma and is tracing out 5-waves higher on the daily chart from the 3/23 low.

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) –  Cycles for gold peak into May, but gold is tracing out an EW a-b-c correction from the $1789 high that is testing $1700 Monday night. We have an inverse head and shoulders target at $1950 into May. The weekly GDX close above 32 has now finally confirmed the multi-year bull market in gold and pullbacks in gold stocks should be bought.

• Stocks – The SPX closed above the .618 retracement from the 3/23 low and appears to be sub-dividing up in a 3rd wave that could test 3400 by summer. We are looking for a pullback into Thursday as the market waits on earnings from AAPL and AMZN.
• Gold - Gold held above $1700 Tuesday and Wednesday and finished strong into Wednesday's close - big Dark Pool GLD prints were seen late in the Wednesday session and this is bullish for the action on Thursday.
• Silver – Charts say that it is time for silver to break higher or lower - silver is trying to lead the PM sector higher Wednesday night - BULLISH!
• Crude Oil - Crude oil tested $10 and bounced today, but the oil stocks (XLE) remain one of the strongest sectors.
• Bonds - Bonds sold off today as stocks soared - a test of 183 is still possible.
• Dollar Index – The USD found support at 99.6 after the Fed press conference.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 4/26-4/27 and 4/29.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 28, 2020

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX gave us a gap-up open and tested the .618 retracement of the March meltdown. After peaking early near SPX 2921, the stock indices began a mild correction, but the NYSE breadth never fell below zero. The main technical signal is that the SPX and NDX are both rallying in 5-waves on the daily chart off the 3/23 low and that is bullish.  However, this is a Presidential election year and the cycle argues for weakness in early May. The stock market reaction to the Fed's press conference will be key for Wednesday. Gold tested $1705 early Tuesday on Comex option expiration and rebounded but the GDX held firm. The fact that GDX made a weekly close above the multi-year 32 resistance is huge for gold investors and pullbacks in gold stocks should be bought.

4/28/20 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX tested the .618 retracement early Tuesday at 2921 while the NDX lagged - the expected correction started kicking in and should continue into Wednesday. The Michigan Sentiment Index dropped to only 70% which is far higher that at the 2002-2003 and 2008-2009 lows and is consistent with the longer-term sentiment numbers from the Whisper Number Confidence Report - this reflects too much complacency and faith in the Fed. For Wednesday, we are looking for another leg down into the Fed press conference and then a bounce - how we close Wednesday will be key.  Crude oil came down to test the $10 Tuesday and bounced, but the oil stocks(XLE) continue to try to lead oil higher. The Fed's take on the global economy will be keenly reviewed on Wednesday and earnings from AAPL and AMZN after-market Thursday will be impactful. The financials continued their rally from Friday as hopes continue to stir for a quick economic recovery. We have argued that the COVID-19 health crisis would be followed by a series of rolling financial challenges that could include the breakdown of the global derivative pyramid - how did the extreme volatility in crude oil impact the derivative portfolio of Deutsche Bank last week? Gold tested $1705 early Tuesday on Comex option expiration before bouncing but the GDX held firm which is bullish. The USD touched our target of 99.6 and bounced as it tries to hold up into the Fed press conference. 

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX made a Major High on 2/19 and perhaps the high for the year - years ending in "0" made a January/February high about 83% of the time. The SPX continues to grind higher as it closed above the 50-dma and is tracing out 5-waves higher on the daily chart from the 3/23 low.

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) –  Cycles for gold peak into May, but gold is tracing out an EW a-b-c correction from the $1789 high that is testing $1700 Monday night. We have an inverse head and shoulders target at $1950 into May. The weekly GDX close above 32 has now finally confirmed the multi-year bull market in gold and pullbacks in gold stocks should be bought.

• Stocks – The SPY rallied in 5-waves on the daily chart from the 3/23 low, closed above the 50-dma, and tested the .618 retracement early Tuesday before starting a 4th wave correction that could yield one more leg higher to test SPX 2930 early Thursday.
• Gold - Gold tested $1705 going into Comex option expiration today and bounced - we are expecting volatility on Wednesday with the Fed minutes and press conference.
• Silver – Silver stocks continue to lead silver which is bullish for the PM sector.
• Crude Oil - Crude oil tested $10 and bounced today, but the oil stocks (XLE) remain one of the strongest sectors.
• Bonds - Bonds may have finished an EW a-b-c correction and are poised to retest 183.
• Dollar Index – The USD is tracing out an EW a-b-c correction that tested our 99.6 target early Tuesday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 4/26-4/27 and 4/29.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 27, 2020

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX roared into the 4/26-4/27 turn window and crude oil began another decline. Today was a difficult trading day with the stock futures up big pre-market but the financial stocks led the way. The SPX closed above 2850 and the .628 retracement to 2930 looks within reach. However, the powerful geo-cosmic turn window on 4/27 could still turn us down into Wednesday/Thursday, but it would take a break below SPX 2650 to turn the trend bearish. Gold is pulling back to $1710 Monday night as the PM sector corrects into Comex option expiration tomorrow. The fact that GDX made a weekly close above the multi-year 32 resistance is huge for gold investors and pullbacks in gold stocks should be bought. The USD is tracing out an EW a-b-c correction on the hourly chart.

4/27/20 (Commentary for Monday) The DJIA and SPX both cleared the 50-dma as the indices entered the 4/26-4/27 turn window. The SPX is now close to the .618 retracement at 2930. Our bias was for a decline into Wednesday/Thursday, but only a move under SPX 2650 would turn the trend bearish.  Crude oil came down to test the $10 level into our 4/26-4/27 turn window. The Fed's take on the global economy will be keenly reviewed on Wednesday and earnings from AAPL and AMZN after-market Thursday will be impactful. The financials continued their rally from Friday as hopes stirred for a quick economic recovery. We have argued that the COVID-19 health crisis would be followed by a series of rolling financial challenges that could include the breakdown of the global derivative pyramid - how did the extreme volatility in crude oil impact the derivative portfolio of Deutsche Bank this week? Gold is pulling back to test the $1700 area Monday night as it pulls back into Tuesday's Comex gold option expiration. The USD is tracing out an EW a-b-c correction on the hourly chart that could test 99.6  

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX made a Major High on 2/19 and perhaps the high for the year - years ending in "0" made a January/February high about 83% of the time. The SPX continues to grind higher as it closed above the 50-dma and is tracing out 5-waves higher on the daily chart from the 3/23 low.

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) –  Cycles for gold peak into May, but gold is tracing out an EW a-b-c correction from the $1789 high that is testing $1700 Monday night. We have an inverse head and shoulders target at $1950 into May. The weekly GDX close above 32 has now finally confirmed the multi-year bull market in gold and pullbacks in gold stocks should be bought.

• Stocks – The SPY rallied in 5-waves to make a new high for the rally from 3/23 and to clear the 50-dma. We entered the 4/26-4/27 turn window and a turn down into Wednesday/Thursday is still a possibility.
• Gold - Gold continues to trace out an EW a-b-c decline down from the $1789 high and the 13-day step out from the $1789 high fell today.
• Silver – Silver is also falling in an EW a-b-c correction that could test $15.
• Crude Oil - Crude oil's pullback from Thursday's New Moon tested $10 on Monday.
• Bonds - Bonds are working on an EW a-b-c correction from 183'02 that could test 180 this week.
• Dollar Index – The USD is tracing out an EW a-b-c correction that could test 99.6.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 4/26-4/27 and 4/29.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - April 26, 2020

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  Last week was about crude oil volatility and this week will be about corporate earnings - both AMZN and AAPL report after-market Thursday. The New Moon held up the stock indices into the weekend but a solar-lunar and a large geo-cosmic turn window kicks in on 4/25-4/26 and our bias is for a pullback into Wednesday - only a break below SPX 2650 would turn the trend bearish. Gold is holding up Sunday night and may want to test the $1764-$1789  in a B-Wave. The fact that GDX made a weekly close above 32 is huge for gold investors and pullbacks in gold stocks should be bought. The USD appears to be breaking down Sunday night and this is supporting the PM sector.

4/26/20 (Commentary for Sunday) Last week the plunge in crude oil took the SPY down into Tuesday and then it rebounded into the 4/25-4/26 turn window. We view the SPX price action as a "wave a" down into Tuesday, then a low volume b-wave rally into the weekend and now we expect a "wave c" down into the Fed meeting on Wednesday. The Fed's take on the global economy will be keenly reviewed on Wednesday and earnings from AAPL and AMZN after-market Thursday will be impactful. The bank stocks gave us a weak bounce into Friday as future global economic slowdown priced into crude oil futures hit home to investors. We have argued that the COVID-19 health crisis would be followed by a series of rolling financial challenges that could include the breakdown of the global derivative pyramid - how did the extreme volatility in crude oil impact the derivative portfolio of Deutsche Bank this week? Gold made lows for the week at $1666 early Tuesday and then rallied $100 to a peak on Thursday at $1764 before another pullback into mid-Friday that got bought for a bounce into the close. The weekly close in GDX above multi-year resistance at 32 was huge for gold stock investors. The USD is forming a bull flag on the daily chart and a test of 103 looks likely.

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX made a Major High on 2/19 and perhaps the high for the year - years ending in "0" made a January/February high about 83% of the time. The SPX gave us a light volume bounce into the weekend(B-Wave) and it looks likely we'll see a C-Wave down into Wednesday/Thursday.

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) –  Gold continued its rally from the $1666 low and is tested $1764 Thursday before a pullback - is this a B-Wave test of the $1789 high or the next leg higher to $1800? Monday's tape will tell us. We have an inverse head and shoulders target at $1950 into May. The weekly GDX close above 32 has now finally confirmed the multi-year bull market in gold and pullbacks in gold stocks should be bought.

• Stocks – Our view is that the SPY has been making an EW a-b-c correction from the GILD high on 4/16 with "wave a" down into Tuesday and "wave b" higher into Sunday night - "wave c" down is now due into Wednesday/Thursday.
• Gold - Gold continues to rally from its $1666 low and is testing $1740 late Sunday.  A B-wave test of highs or a new rally leg to $1800 are both possible going into Monday.
• Silver – Silver fell hard with gold on Tuesday and may undercut $14.56 into the New Moon to make a pattern completion.
• Crude Oil - Crude oil bounced hard from Tuesday lows into Thursday's New Moon before correcting into the weekend - oil stocks were big winners last week.
• Bonds - Bonds took out Friday's lows Sunday night and look weak.
• Dollar Index – The USD is coming down hard Friday night and this is helping to support gold.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 4/25-4/26 and 4/29.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 23, 2020

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  Going into this week we expected a modest SPX pullback on Monday and then a rally into the 4/22-4/23 turn window that would make highs for the week - instead, we got a hard decline on Monday/Tuesday and a low volume bounce into our 4/22-4/23 turn window. This SPX price action and a series of low put/call ratios has a bearish tone to it and we expect more weakness into early next week.  Crude oil volatility dominated trading early this week and sent deflationary shivers through the commodity markets - crude oil bounced back into our 4/22-4/23 turn window led by the oil stocks. The GDX broke out above multi-year resistance at 32, but reversed sharply down at mid-day with 5-waves down on the 15-min chart - we may have seen a short-term high in the PM sector in the New Moon Timing Window. The USD appears to be forming a "bull flag" on the daily chart and a test of 103 is still in play.

4/23/20 (Commentary for Thursday) The low-volume SPX rally reversed mid-day and ended with a "gravestone Doji" that turned us bearish for early Friday. The Option Premium Ratio has given us two almost identical values of .67, .68 at a low level that also implies a pullback. The McClellan Oscillator fell in 5-waves and tested 0 early in the week - another sign of market weakness. Led by oil stocks, crude oil continues to bounce from its low on Tuesday into Thursday. The GDX made a big breakout above 32 and spiked into mid-day Thursday before a sharp reversal down into the close - this could be a sell sign for the general market. In another big range day, gold spiked to $1764 before a reversal into close - this may have been a B-Wave test of the $1789 high and a short-term high in the PM sector. We may see a short-term PM correction into the Fed meeting next week that gives us a back test of 32 for the GDX. The USD is forming a bull flag on the daily chart and a test of 103 looks likely.

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX made a Major High on 2/19 and perhaps the high for the year - years ending in "0" made a January/February high about 83% of the time. The SPX gave us a light volume bounce into the 4/22-4/23 turn window and ended Thursday with a "gravestone Doji" candle that suggests a short-term high was reached.

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) –  The GDX made a well-watched breakout above 32 which took out major horizontal resistance and confirmed the action in gold but we reversed sharply down around mid-day. We may have made a short-term high in the PM sector and we could see a back test of GDX to 32 into next week's Fed meeting.  

• Stocks – The SPY gave us a mid-day reversal down and we ended Thursday with a "gravestone Doji" pattern which argues that we made a short-term high today in the 4/22-4/23 turn window.
• Gold - The GDX made a spike breakout above 32 before reversing down in 5-waves into the close - that may have given us a short-term peak in the PM sector.
• Silver - Silver bounced with gold today but silver stocks looked stronger which is a bullish sign for the intermediate term.
• Crude Oil - Crude oil (the June contract) hit multi-decade lows on Tuesday and continued to rally into Thursday night.
• Bonds - Bonds got a bounce on the SPX weakness but their pattern still looks weak.
• Dollar Index – The USD is forming a "bull flag" on the daily chart with a target of 103.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week is 4/21 and 4/22-4/24 - the New Moon Timing Window

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 22, 2020

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  Neither the SPX nor gold made an undercut low early Wednesday but both did bounce hard into the New Moon which was exact late Wednesday. The volume on the SPY was the lowest in two weeks and the day ended with a Doji candle which argues for a pullback on Thursday. After making multi-decade lows, June crude oil continued to rebound into the New Moon Window as the USO ETF was retooled to include forward contracts.  Gold continued its rally from $1666 and is testing $1740 Wednesday night into the New Moon - is this just a B-Wave test of the $1789 or a leg to test the $1800 level - how we trade on Thursday will tell us. The USD appears to be forming a "bull flag" on the daily chart and a test of 103 is still in play.

4/22/20 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX bounced today into the New Moon but the SPY volume was the lightest in two weeks and we ended the day with a Doji candlestick with argues for a pullback early Thursday. Crude oil continues to bounce from its low on Tuesday into Wednesday's New Moon. The bank stocks gave us a weak bounce Wednesday that rolled over into the close as the reality of the global economic slowdown priced into crude oil futures hit home to investors. We have argued that the COVID-19 health crisis would be followed by a series of rolling financial challenges that could include the breakdown of the global derivative pyramid - how did the extreme volatility in crude oil impact the derivative portfolio of Deutsche Bank this week? The SPX should pull back on Thursday but continued weakness into Friday would be a bearish sign.  Gold made lows for the week at $1666 early Tuesday and continues to rally early Wednesday - is this just a B-Wave test of last week's high? We are expecting volatility on Thursday after the New Moon. The USD is forming a bull flag on the daily chart and a test of 103 looks likely.

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX made a Major High on 2/19 and perhaps the high for the year - years ending in "0" made a January/February high about 83% of the time. The SPX gave us a light volume bounce into the New Moon today and it looks likely will see a pullback early Thursday.

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) –  Gold continued its rally from the $1666 low and is testing $1740 Wednesday night - is this a B-Wave test of the highs or the next leg higher to $1800? Thursday's tape will tell us. We have an inverse head and shoulders target at $1950 into May. The GDX needs to give us the elusive daily close above 32 to confirm that the gold stock rally has legs.

• Stocks – The SPY gave us a light-volume bounce on Wednesday that ended with a Doji candle - a reversal down early Thursday is likely.
• Gold - Gold continues to rally from its $1666 low and is testing $1740 late Tuesday.  A B-wave test of highs or a new rally leg to $1800 are both possible going into Thursday.
• Silver – Silver fell hard with gold on Tuesday and may undercut $14.56 into the New Moon to make a pattern completion.
• Crude Oil - Crude oil (the June contract) hit multi-decade lows on Tuesday  and continued to rally into Tuesday night.
• Bonds - Bonds declined from 183'02 Tuesday as stocks rallied.
• Dollar Index – The USD is forming a "bull flag" on the daily chart with a target of 103.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week is 4/21 and 4/22-4/24 - the New Moon Timing Window

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 21, 2020

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  We were wrong not to hold SPY puts or VXX calls into Monday's close. In our eyes, the price action today in the June crude contract was even more alarming than Monday and the SPX responded on the downside. The USO ETF was blown out and many retail investors appeared to be on the wrong side of the market. The deflationists were right and their prediction of crude oil < $10 proved correct as June crude got down to $6.5 on heavy volume - the COVID-19 shut down of the global economy has reduced global oil demand by 30 million barrels a day. The SPX is declining into the 4/22 New Moon and we could see an undercut low below SPX 2727 early Wednesday. Gold tested $1666 early Tuesday and only gave us a corrective bounce to $1712 - gold may also decline to an undercut low into the 4/22 New Moon.

4/21/20 (Commentary for Tuesday) The June crude oil contract's plunge to $6.5 dominated the SPX trade on Tuesday and cast a big deflationary shadow over the financial markets. Crude oil is making a low in the 4/22 New Moon and the SPX has a chance of an undercut low below SPX 2727 early Wednesday. The bank stocks and financial stocks were hit hard on Tuesday as the reality of the global economic slowdown hit home to investors. We have argued that the COVID-19 health crisis would be followed by a series of rolling financial challenges that could include the breakdown of the global derivative pyramid - how did the extreme volatility in crude oil impact the derivative portfolio of Deutsche Bank this week? The SPX may find a trading low in Wednesday's New Moon Timing Window. Gold made lows for the week at $1666 early Tuesday but only bounced in 3-waves above $1700 - we could still see an undercut low on Wednesday. The USD appears to be forming a "bull flag" on the daily chart.

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX made a Major High on 2/19 and perhaps the high for the year - years ending in "0" made a January/February high about 83% of the time. The SPX looks like it is cruising to make an undercut low below 2727 on Wednesday's New Moon.

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) –  Gold tested $1789 on 4/14 and pulled back to $1666 early Tuesday. Linear cycles still look positive into May. We have an inverse head and shoulders target at $1950 into May. The GDX needs to give us the elusive daily close above 32 to confirm that the gold stock rally has legs.

• Stocks – The SPX sold off more on Tuesday on the intense selloff in June crude oil. Making an undercut low below SPX 2727 on Wednesday could give us a bearish 5-waves done on the hourly chart.
• Gold - Gold appears to be declining into the 8/22 New Moon - an undercut low below $1666 is possible.
• Silver – Silver fell hard with gold on Tuesday and may undercut $14.56 into the New Moon to make a pattern completion.
• Crude Oil - Crude oil (the June contract) was hit again on Tuesday and continued to weigh on the SPX - the USO ETF imploded and will be restructured.
• Bonds - Bonds rallied to 183'02 a multi-week high on stock weakness.
• Dollar Index – The USD got a bid above 100 late Monday on concern about the deflationary impact of falling oil prices.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week is 4/21 and 4/22-4/24 - the New Moon Timing Window.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 20, 2020

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The implosion of a hedge fund  may have caused the expiring May crude oil contract to plunge to -$40 at the end of its day session and this unprecedented event triggered a stock selloff into the close.  SPX solar-lunar cycles argue for a turn tomorrow(4/21) and then on 4/25 - near our 4/22-4/24 New Moon Timing Window. Our bias is for an early low on Tuesday and then a bounce into the 4/22-4/24 turn window but anything can happen - so BE NIMBLE. Our Option Premium Ratio indicator has now recorded a back-to-back daily reading of .49(the lowest reading since the 3/23 SPX low) and we view that as BEARISH for a turn down this week - is it turning down RIGHT NOW or later in the week in our 4/22-4/24 turn window - tomorrow's tape will enlighten us. Gold bottomed Sunday night at $1685 but didn't exactly explode above $1700 Monday - once again Tuesday's early tape will enlighten us.

4/20/20 (Commentary for Monday) The plunge in the crude oil market unnerved the stock market late and if the plunge to -$40 was caused by a hedge fund implosion then this will have the attention of the Fed and monetary authorities overnight. The SPX may want to fill Friday's opening post-Gilead bounce at 2806 before bouncing - if we plunge below 2800 with volume something bigger on the downside may be occurring - BE ALERT!  We have argued that the COVID-19 health crisis would be followed by a series of rolling financial challenges that could include the breakdown of the global derivative pyramid - did we see that today in the breakdown of the expiring May crude contract? Tuesday morning's action is crucial to the short-term trend of the stock market. Gold may have finished an EW a-b-c decline Sunday evening at $1685, but we didn't spike above $1720 - we pulled back to consolidate at the $1704 pivot Monday night. Tuesday's tape is key.

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX made a Major High on 2/19 and perhaps the high for the year - years ending in "0" made a January/February high about 83% of the time. Will the SPX hold up to test the .618 retracement level near 2930 into the 4/22-4/24 New Moon or will this turn window turn out to be a low - Tuesday's early tape should tell us.

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) –  Gold tested $1789 on Tuesday and started a pullback - linear cycles still look positive into May. We have an inverse head and shoulders target at $1950 into May. The GDX needs to give us the elusive daily close above 32 to confirm that the gold stock rally has legs.

• Stocks – The SPX sold off late Monday on crude oil's breakdown to negative values on the expiring May crude contract. Watch if the SPX fills Friday's up-gap around 2806 - a bounce off this rally would be bullish - a plunge below 2800 on heavy volume would be short-term bearish.
• Gold - Gold rallied from $1685 Sunday evening but didn't trade above $1720 on Monday - gold is consolidating at the $1704 pivot support Monday night.
• Silver – Silver fell hard with gold on Friday as stock futures went euphoric from the GILD drug study, but silver tried hard to lead the PM sector higher on Monday and silver stocks are leading which is bullish.
• Crude Oil - Crude oil (the expiring May contract) imploded to negative -$40 Monday and spooked the stock markets - a hedge fund may have imploded. Tuesday's tape will be interesting.
• Bonds - Bonds rallied late Monday as stocks followed crude oil down.
• Dollar Index – The USD got a bid above 100 late Monday on concern about a hedge fund blowing up.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week is 4/21 and 4/22-4/24 - the New Moon Timing Window.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - April 19, 2020

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  Our bias is for the SPX and NDX to hold up into the 4/22-4/24 New Moon Timing Window before turning down. A daily close above SPX 2930 (the .618 retrace) would open up some bullish possibilities. Gold is close to finishing an EW a-b-c pullback from last week's high at $1789 - we are looking for a sharp rebound above $1700 on Monday.

4/19/20 (Commentary for Sunday) The SPX wants to test the SPX 2930 (.618 retracement) into Wednesday's New Moon before another attempted pullback - so why fight it?  The SPX declined into our Wednesday/Thursday turn window and Thursday ended with a Doji candlestick on the daily chart - that should have been a warning not to go short into Friday. The preliminary study of a promising therapeutic drug is trying to overcome the market damage of losing 22 million jobs over the past four weeks - the hope is driving the SPX up to test the .618 retracement level at 2930. The NDX has been the strongest index and we will use the QQQ to play any pullback early Monday. Gold may have finished an EW a-b-c decline Sunday evening at $1685 - we may see a strong bounce above $1700 on Monday.  The SPX and gold both could make highs for the week in the 4/22-4/24 turn window.

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX made a Major High on 2/19 and perhaps the high for the year - years ending in "0" made a January/February high about 83% of the time. The SPX could hold up to test the .618 retracement level near 2930 into the 4/22 New Moon before another pullback attempt.

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) –  Gold tested $1789 on Tuesday and started a pullback - linear cycles still look positive into May. We have an inverse head and shoulders target at $1950 into May. The GDX needs to give us the elusive daily close above 32 to confirm that the gold stock rally has legs.

• Stocks – The SPX gave us a short-term high on Tuesday's close and then got pressured down to Wednesday's low from multi-year lows on crude oil - but the GILD announcement after hours Thursday gave us a huge spike into early Friday. We're looking for the SPX to get to 2930 by the 4/22-4/24 turn window.
• Gold - Gold tested $1789 on Tuesday as the GDX tested formidable resistance at 32, but gold came down hard and touched $1685 Sunday evening - we may reverse above $1700 early Monday.
• Silver – Silver fell hard with gold on Friday as stock futures went euphoric from the GILD drug study - we're getting a bounce Sunday night.
• Crude Oil - Crude oil (the June contract) made multi-year lows at $19.2 pre-market Wednesday and then exploded after hours Thursday to test $27 after the GILD announcement.
• Bonds - Bonds pulled back Friday on the explosion in global stock futures - we have a target on the S1 pivot at 179'06.
• Dollar Index – The USD did not bounce much on gold's decline on Friday - that is bullish for gold.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 4/22-4/24 - the New Moon Timing Window.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 16, 2020

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX showed a reluctance to stay down during a volatile session and ended the day with a Doji candlestick - then all hell broke loose after hours with a promising therapeutic from GILD and the decision by BA to resume its plane manufacturing.  Crude oil is up as the world hopes that a potential breakthrough from GILD will have the COVID-19 on the run soon. The SPX could test the .618 retracement of the Feb/March at 2930 into Friday/Monday.

4/16/20 (Commentary for Thursday) The news from GILD of the promising therapeutic drug study and the news that Boeing is resuming its manufacturing operations will give the SPX a huge gap-up open early Friday and perhaps a run to the .618 retracement at 2930 into Monday. The SPX declined into our Wednesday/Thursday turn window and Thursday ended with a Doji candlestick - a potential sign of a reversal. The preliminary study of a promising therapeutic drug is trying to overcome the market damage of losing 22 million jobs over the past four weeks. The NDX has been the strongest index and we will use the QQQ to play any pullback tomorrow. The SPX may get to hold up and test the .618 retracement near 2930 into the 4/22 New Moon. Gold and bond prices are selling off late as stock futures soar overnight and crude oil rallies . The SPX may want to hold up and test the .618 retracement near 2900 into the 4/22 New Moon. Gold tested $1789 on Tuesday and is plunging to test $1700 early Friday as global stock futures soar - Friday is a Big Range day for gold and silver and we are already seeing extreme volatility.

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX made a Major High on 2/19 and perhaps the high for the year - years ending in "0" made a January/February high about 83% of the time. The SPX could hold up to test the .618 retracement level near 2900 into the 4/22 New Moon.

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) –  Gold tested $1789 on Tuesday and started a pullback - linear cycles still look positive into May. We have an inverse head and shoulders target at $1950 into May. The GDX needs to give us the elusive daily close above 32 to confirm that the gold stock rally has legs.

• Stocks – The SPX gave us a short-term high on Tuesday's close and then got pressured down on Wednesday from multi-year lows on crude oil. The weekly jobless claim report early Thursday gave us a total of 22 million job losses in four weeks but promising therapeutic results from a GILD drug is sending the stock futures soaring early Friday.
• Gold - Gold tested $1789 on Tuesday as the GDX tested formidable resistance at 32, but gold is coming down hard early Friday and testing $1700 as global stock futures soar.
• Silver – Silver is falling hard early Friday as stock futures go euphoric overnight from the GILD drug study.
• Crude Oil - Crude oil made multi-year lows at $19.2 and exploded after hours to test $27 after the GILD announcement.
• Bonds - Bonds pulled back Thursday on the explosion in global stock futures.
• Dollar Index – The USD may be working on a 4th wave bounce today in a 5-wave down pattern.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 4/15.