All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - January 30, 2020

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The stock market is a battleground between the traders trying to price in the slowing effects of the corona virus on China and the global economy and the fearless dip buyers who want to buy dips in the big tech stocks like AAPl, MSFT and TSLA.  The B-Wave bounce in the SPX and NDX from Monday has turned complex and gave us a C-Wave bounce into the close . We would raise cash here where possible after a historic run in stocks from early October to late January. Gold and bonds pulled back late as stocks rallied hard into the close.

 

1/30/20 (Commentary for Thursday) Good earnings from AMZN and TSLA are keeping the NQ futures elevated overnight. Also, the lack of travel restriction recommendations from the WHO on account of the corona virus gave stocks a boost late in the day.  Still, the DJIA gave us another triple-digit day on negative market breadth and that is bearish. The smart money OEX traders gave us the largest closing put/call ratio (6.94) that we have ever seen in our data base and that is bearish. Big Tech earnings are trying to hold the markets up - today's came on negative breadth readings on the Nasdaq and the NYSE - the average stock is being sold. Our bias this week was for a low on Monday and then a bounce into the Fed minutes before the next leg down, but the late SPX rally today shows that the B-Wave rally from Monday has turned complex. The two-day SPX close below 3300 on Monday/Tuesday is has turned the market trend down. The high we made at SPX 3337 on 1/22 looks very important - perhaps more than a daily cycle high. It took an exotic shock to the system(like the Chinese corona virus) to trigger a pullback and it could unfold with a lot of volatility into February. Our bias is for the SPX to test the 50-dma around 3200 by Monday/Tuesday. Gold pulled back into the FOMC minutes on the 21-day Fibonacci step out from the 1/8 high at $1613 and reversed higher from $1564 - we tested $1590 resistance Thursday before a pullback late. Gold made a mid-December seasonal low which usually leads to a rally into February and the expansion of volatility in the gold market is a harbinger of much higher highs in 2020. The USD peaked at 98.188 early Wednesday before the FOMC minutes and then a strengthening British Pound gave the USD a pullback. The strong USD is crushing crude oil, copper, coffee and other commodities.

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX peaked at 3337 on 1/22 - a quick 5-8% correction is underway - we could see a test of SPX 3200, the 50-dma, Monday/Tuesday.

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold pulled back into the FOMC minutes and the 21-day Fibonacci step out from the 1/8 high - gold reversed higher after the FOMC minutes and tested $1590 resistance on Thursday before pulling back.

• Stocks – The SPX B-Wave rally from Monday's low has turned complex - a test of its 50-dma at 3200 by Monday/Tuesday is a possibility.
• Gold – Gold pulled back into today's FOMC minutes and the 21-day Fibonacci step out from the 1/8 high at $1613 - gold reversed higher after the FOMC minutes and tested $1590 Thursday before a correction.
• Silver – Silver bottomed at $17.28 and rallied hard into Thursday before pulling back late.
• Bonds - Bonds peaked at 163'12 Thursday before pulling back.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil broke to $51.66 before bouncing.
• Dollar Index – The USD peaked at 98.188 early Wednesday before reversing down on a strengthening British Pound.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 1/27 and 1/29.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - January 29, 2020

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Good earnings from AAPL and BA supported the market today into the FOMC minutes and the NDX gave us a gap-fill of Monday's down-gap open. The Fed extended its "repo program" into April and that gave us a bounce after the minutes but the SPX and NDX closed weakly. The B-Wave bounce in the SPX and NDX finished up today and we are now looking for a C-Wave down into Friday. Our bias this week was for a low on Monday and a bounce into Wednesday's FOMC minutes before the next leg down and that appears to be on track. We would raise cash here where possible after a historic run in stocks from early October to late January. Gold and bonds are rallying into late Wednesday as the stock futures sell off.

 

1/29/20 (Commentary for Wednesday) Good earnings from Big Tech like AAPL, MSFT and TSLA is trying to hold the markets up but today's rally attempt came on negative breadth readings and shows that the average stock is being sold. Our bias this week was for a low on Monday and then a bounce into the Fed minutes and then a decline into Friday and so far so good. The two-day SPX close below 3300 on Monday/Tuesday has turned the market trend down. The high we made at SPX 3337 on 1/22 looks very important - perhaps more than a daily cycle high. The key earnings from big tech has helped support the indices, but AAPL, TESLA and MSFT are not enough to hold the market up from an overdue wave of profit taking.  The NDX filled its gap at 9140 early Wednesday but then couldn't power through the gap resistance after the FOMC minutes - we ended the day selling off. Chinese stock markets are closed this week for the Chinese New Year, but the US-listed stocks like BABA and BIDU can be traded. It took an exotic shock to the system(like the Chinese corona-virus) to trigger a pullback and it could unfold quickly since the SPX sold off after the FOMC minutes into the close. Our bias is for the SPX to test the 50-dma around 3200 by Friday/Monday. Gold pulled back into the FOMC minutes on the 21-day Fibonacci step out from the 1/8 high at $1613 and reversed higher from $1564 - we are testing $1588 resistance late Wednesday. Gold made a mid-December seasonal low which usually leads to a rally into February and the expansion of volatility in the gold market is a harbinger of much higher highs in 2020. The USD peaked at 98.188  before reversing down hard after the FOMC minutes - the strong USD is crushing crude oil, copper, coffee and other commodities.

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX peaked at 3337 on 1/22 - a quick 5-8% correction is underway - we could see a test of SPX 3200, the 50-dma, by Friday/Monday.

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold pulled back into the FOMC minutes and the 21-day Fibonacci step out from the 1/8 high - gold reversed higher after the FOMC minutes and is testing $1588 resistance on Wednesday evening.

• Stocks – The SPX closed below 3300 on Monday and Tuesday which confirmed a bearish trend down - the SPX looks like it wants to test its 50-dma at 3200 by Friday/Monday.
• Gold – Gold pulled back into today's FOMC minutes and the 21-day Fibonacci step out from the 1/8 high at $1613 - gold reversed higher after the FOMC minutes and is testing $1588 resistance late Wednesday.
• Silver – Silver bottomed at $17.28 early Wednesday and is following gold higher - silver stocks need to start leading again to validate this move.
• Bonds - Bonds are testing 163 Wednesday night and making highs for the week as stock futures sell off.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil rolled over early Wednesday and is heading down to test $52 again.
• Dollar Index – The USD peaked at 98.188 early Wednesday before reversing down after the FOMC minutes.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 1/27 and 1/29.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - January 28, 2020

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The NDX and SPX staged a recovery rally that that looked impressive but the volume did not confirm - news of a potential corona-virus vaccine from Hong Kong researchers helped to underpin the rally? We are still amazed at the complacency in US markets - AAPL delivered a good quarter after hours and is getting bid up but future guidance may pair the gains by early tomorrow. Our bias this week was for a low on Monday and a bounce into Wednesday's FOMC minutes before the next leg down and that appears to be on track. We would raise cash here where possible after a historic run in stocks from early October to late January. Gold and bonds got hit hard today as the risk-off assets got taken down on today's stock rally.

 

1/28/20 (Commentary for Tuesday) AAPL rallied after its earnings - can the stock market remain elevated into Wednesday's Fed minutes? Our bias this week was for a low on Monday and then a bounce into the Fed minutes and then a decline into Friday and so far so good. The two-day SPX close below 3300 is important to us because it has turned the trend down. Staying below SPX 3300 on Monday's close was particularly bearish to us and a warning sign that the high we made at SPX 3337 on 1/22 could be very important. This week has key earnings from big tech - AAPL, TESLA and AMD among others and these will also be key for the near-term trend of the markets.  If AAPL can hold its post-earnings gains through the close on Wednesday, that will be bullish for the market. The NDX is on track to fill its gap at 9140 early Wednesday and the SPX already gave us a 50% retracement of its decline from last week - will this turn the markets down tomorrow? Chinese stock markets are closed this week for the Chinese New Year, but the US-listed stocks like BABA and BIDU can be traded. It took an exotic shock to the system(like the Chinese corona-virus) to trigger a pullback and it could unfold quickly if the SPX weakens after the Fed minutes on Wednesday. Gold closed Friday above $1570 which is bullish and spiked to resistance at $1588 Sunday evening - but gold reversed down today to test $1564 during the stock rally and is doing its typical decline into the Fed minutes. Gold made a mid-December seasonal low which usually leads to a rally into February and the expansion of volatility in the gold market is a harbinger of much higher highs in 2020. The USD peaked at 98.156  before reversing down on Tuesday - the strong USD is crushing crude oil, copper, coffee and other commodities.

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX peaked at 3337 on 1/22 - a quick 5-8% correction is underway - we could see a test of SPX 3200.

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold closed above $1571 on Friday which is bullish and tested $1588 resistance Sunday evening - gold is pulling back in advance of the Fed minutes on Wednesday.

• Stocks – The SPX closed below 3300 on Monday and Tuesday which is bearish - the SPX looks like it wants to test its 50-dma at 3200.
• Gold – Gold closed above $1571 on Friday which is bullish and tested $1588 resistance Sunday evening - weakening gold stocks warned us about the pullback in gold today into the Fed minutes.
• Silver – Silver tested $18.375 Sunday evening but pulled back hard with other commodities on Monday - weakening silver stocks are also giving us a warning sign.
• Bonds - Bonds pulled back to 161 on Tuesday as stocks had a big retracement day.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $52 Sunday evening and bounced to $54 on Tuesday night.
• Dollar Index – The USD peaked slightly above 98 on Tuesday before reversing down - silver and gold were under pressure today.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 1/27 and 1/29.

The Daily JDV Market Timer -January 27, 2019

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Can the impact of the Chinese corona-virus morph from just a routine 5-8% pullback to a true Black Swan event? This is a possibility ... and today's market complacency was stunning to us. Our Option Premium Ratio came in at just a paltry .44 and showed that we had "massive equity call buying today" - where is the FEAR we ask? Our bias this week was for a low on Monday and a bounce into Wednesday's FOMC minutes before the next leg down. The bounce off the market lows today looked very weak to us and the CNBC talking heads looked excessively complacent.    We would raise cash here where possible after a historic run in stocks from early October to late January.

 

1/27/20 (Commentary for Monday) A missile attack on the US Embassy had the US futures down sharply Sunday evening but news of the rapidly spreading corona-virus took the market even lower in a jarring one-two punch - an important new all-time high was made in the NDX on Friday's New Moon before the deluge. Staying below SPX 3300 on Monday's close was particularly bearish to us and a warning sign that the high we made at SPX 3337 on 1/22 could be very important. This week has key earnings from big tech - AAPL, TESLA and AMD among others and these will also be key for the markets.  We do not believe that the Big Tech earnings will "save the market" this week - the rise in AAPL has been parabolic and we believe that post-earnings AAPL will be sold regardless of its earnings or guidance. Chinese stock markets are closed this week for the Chinese New Year, but the US-listed Chinese tech stocks, however,  could still reel from more negative corona-virus news. The SPX looks like it needs to test its 50-dma around 3200 and fill in its gap from 3200-3210 from 12/20 - that should give us a bounce. It took an exotic shock to the system(like the Chinese corona-virus) to trigger a pullback and it should unfold quickly. Gold closed Friday above $1570 which is bullish and spiked to resistance at $1588 Sunday evening - but the reversal in the GDX today was notable and the weakening GDX/GLD ratio is a warning sign. Gold made a mid-December seasonal low which usually leads to a rally into February and the expansion of volatility in the gold market is a harbinger of much higher highs in 2020. The USD tested 98 on Monday and just pulled back correctively - the strong USD is crushing crude oil, copper, coffee and other commodities.

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX peaked at 3337 on 1/22 - a quick 5-8% correction is underway - we could see a bounce at SPX 3200.

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold closed above $1571 on Friday which is bullish and tested $1588 resistance Sunday evening - we may see a test of $1600 this week but weakening gold stocks is a warning sign.

• Stocks – The SPX closed below 3300 on Monday which was bearish - the SPX looks like it wants to test its 50-dma at 3200.
• Gold – Gold closed above $1571 on Friday which is bullish and tested $1588 resistance Sunday evening - gold could test $1600 this week sometime but weakening gold stocks are giving us a warning.
• Silver – Silver tested $18.375 Sunday evening but pulled back hard with other commodities on Monday - weakening silver stocks are also giving us a warning sign.
• Bonds - Bonds are pausing above 162 Monday evening - TLT calls have worked well.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $52 Sunday evening and is bouncing on Monday.
• Dollar Index – The USD tested 98 on Monday and looks higher - this is crushing commodities.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 1/27 and 1/29.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - January 26, 2020

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The NDX made a new all-time high early Friday, but the second announced American victim of the corona-virus caused the US markets to sell off into late afternoon. Only the bounce in oversold Boeing on some rare good news lifted the SPX and NDX into Friday's close.  A missile attack on the US Embassy in Baghdad has the futures sharply down Sunday evening and gold higher. Overall, we are expecting a low on Monday and a bounce into the Fed minutes on Wednesday afternoon.

 

1/26/20 (Commentary for Sunday) A missile attack on the US Embassy has the US futures down sharply - an important high at SPX 3337 on 1/22 may be confirmed. Staying below SPX 3300 on Monday's close would be bearish. The one-two punch of the rapidly spreading corona-virus and a missile attack on the US Embassy is hitting the US markets hard. This week has key earnings from big tech - AAPL, TESLA and AMD among others and these will also be key for the markets.  Chinese stock markets are closed this week for the Chinese New Year, but the US-listed Chinese tech stocks, however,  could still reel from more negative corona-virus news. The Dark Pool reported massive SPY prints from 332.14-332.18 on Tuesday/Wednesday and we closed below those prints on Friday which is bearish. It took an exotic shock to the system(like the Chinese corona-virus) to trigger a pullback and it should unfold quickly. Gold closed Friday above $1570 which is bullish and spiked to resistance at $1588 Sunday evening - gold proxy IAU also saw some big Dark Pool prints and looks primed for a break higher. Gold made a mid-December seasonal low which usually leads to a rally into February and the expansion of volatility in the gold market is a harbinger of much higher highs in 2020. The USD hit 97.946 on Friday and just pulled back correctively - higher highs are likely.

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX peaked at 3337 on 1/22 - a quick 5-8% correction should happen this week.

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold closed above $1571 on Friday which is bullish and tested $1588 resistance Sunday evening - we may see a test of $1600 this week.

• Stocks – A close below SPX 3300 on Monday will be bearish and confirm that an important high is in.
• Gold – Gold closed above $1571 on Friday which is bullish and is testing $1588 resistance Sunday evening - gold could test $1600 this week sometime.
• Silver – Silver tested $18.375 Sunday evening and looks higher this week.
• Bonds - Bonds tested 162 Sunday evening on the missile attack on the US Embassy in Baghdad - TLT calls have worked well.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $52 Sunday evening before getting a bounce.
• Dollar Index – The USD tested 97.946 Friday and looks to go higher.  

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 1/27 and 1/29.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - January 23, 2020

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Fallout from the Chinese Corona-virus overnight gave us a weak open to the SPX and NDX, but the bulls took the SPX and the NDX back to positive territory before the close. Earnings from INTC after the close were stellar and are driving the whole SMH sector. Crude oil is getting sold hard going into Friday's New Moon and could hit $54.50. The passing of the 1/18 Economic Confidence Model turn date correlated with the sobering news of the Chinese virus and the potential impact on the global economy. The Chinese corona virus fear has impacted airline, casino and cruise stocks and they are still under pressure.

 

1/23/20 (Commentary for Thursday) The NQ is making new highs overnight as we approach Friday's New Moon - Intel's blow out earnings gave the whole semi-conductor sector a boost. Chinese tech stocks, however,  are still reeling from the corona virus, and fears of the virus continued to hit airline stocks, casino stocks, and cruise stocks for a third day. The Dark Pool reported massive SPY prints from 332.14-332.18 on Tuesday/Wednesday - a break above 333 would be bullish, a break below 330.80 would be bearish - a big move is coming. Tim Ord argues that we need to see a weekly RSI at 85 for a high in the SPY - we are above 80 now so that is something to watch. A blow off to SPX 3340-3350  into Friday/Monday's New Moon Timing Window is possible - agile day-traders buying dips in the SPY, QQQ or IWM have been doing well - however, people with investment capital should wait patiently for a 5%-8% pullback before putting money to work. The US markets climbed the "wall of worry" of US/Iranian missile strikes and the huge Fed injection of QE4 liquidity has driven stocks higher - even the Chinese have injected billions into their banking system. It may take an exotic shock to the system(like the Chinese corona virus ?) to trigger a pullback but once it happens it will unfold quickly. Gold continues to wrestle with the $1560 level as gold stocks (NEM and GOLD) continue to show relative strength - gold proxy IAU is also seeing some big Dark Pool prints and looks primed for a break higher. Gold made a mid-December seasonal low which usually leads to a rally into February and the expansion of volatility in the gold market is a harbinger of much higher highs in 2020. The USD hit out target of 97.8 today and that could have been an important pattern completion.

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – We could see more potential blow off to SPX 3340-3350 by the 1/24-1/27 New Moon Timing Window. We may see an important high in the last week of January.

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold continues to consolidate around $1560 as we enter the 1/24-1/27 New Moon Timing Window - a daily close above $1566 will confirm a breakout.

• Stocks – The SPX could still blow off to SPX 3340-3350 into the 1/24-1/27 New Moon Timing Window.
• Gold – Gold is consolidating around $1560 as we enter Friday's New Moon - gold needs a close above $1566 to confirm a new rally phase.
• Silver – Silver gave us an important undercut low at $17.59 early Thursday and that gave us a buy signal.
• Bonds - Bonds continued to sub-divide higher impulsively - TLT calls have worked well.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil continues to decline into the 1/24-1/27 New Moon Timing Window and could target $54.5.
• Dollar Index – The USD touched 97.8 to complete a rally pattern from 96.355 - the USD may be about to roll over.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 1/24 -1/27 New Moon Timing Window.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - January 22, 2020

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX and NDX made new all-time highs early in the day and then sold off into the close. Better than expected existing home sales boosted the NDX and SPX early in the session but the indices slipped late in the day. Chinese stocks tried to rebound early but faded into the close. The passing of the 1/18 Economic Confidence Model turn date correlated with the sobering news of the Chinese virus and the potential impact on the global economy. The Chinese corona-virus fear has impacted airline, casino and cruise stocks.

 

1/22/20 (Commentary for Wednesday) The E-mini was higher overnight and the SPX gave us a gap-up open after the existing home sales came in stronger than expected. The SPX made a new all-time high at 3337.77 - close to our 3340 target. Fears of the Chinese corona-virus continued to hit airline stocks, casino stocks, and cruise stocks for a second day. The Dark Pool reported massive SPY prints from 332.14-332.18 on Tuesday - a break above 333 would be bullish, a break below 330.80 would be bearish. Tim Ord argues that we need to see a weekly RSI at 85 for a high in the SPY - we are above 80 now so that is something to watch. A blow off to SPX 3340-3350  into Friday's New Moon is possible - agile day-traders buying dips in the SPY, QQQ or IWM may do well - however, people with investment capital should wait patiently for a 5%-8% pullback before putting money to work. The US markets climbed the "wall of worry" of US/Iranian missile strikes and the huge Fed injection of QE4 liquidity has driven stocks higher - even the Chinese have injected billions into their banking system. It may take an exotic shock to the system(like the Chinese corona-virus ?) to trigger a pullback but once it happens it will unfold quickly. Gold continues to struggle with the $1560 level as gold stocks (NEM and GOLD) continue to show relative strength - we may see a sub-division down to $1535 into Thursday/Friday to finish a C-Wave down. Gold made a mid-December seasonal low which usually leads to a rally into February and the expansion of volatility in the gold market is a harbinger of much higher highs in 2020. The USD is coiling sideways but we still have our target of 97.8 which may complete a larger pattern from 96.335.

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – We are looking for more potential blow off to SPX 3340-3350 by the 1/23-1/24 New Moon. We may see an important high in the last half of January.

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold stocks are trying to lead gold higher especially NEM and GOLD. Gold may need to retrace to $1535 by the 1/23-1/24 New Moon to finish a large EW a-b-c correction from the $1613 high.

• Stocks – The SPX could still blow off to SPX 3340-3350 into the 1/23-1/24 New Moon.
• Gold – Gold may need to retrace to $1535 by Thursday/Friday to make an important pattern completion - gold needs a close above $1566 to confirm a new rally phase.
• Silver – Silver continues to coil below $18.00 while the SIL (silver stocks) holds up - this is bullish.
• Bonds - Bonds continue to sub-divide higher impulsively - TLT calls look attractive on dips.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil continues to decline into the 1/23-1/24 New Moon Timing Window and could target $54.
• Dollar Index – The USD is coiling sideways but should touch 97.8 to complete a rally pattern from 96.355.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 1/24/20, the New Moon Timing Window.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - January 21, 2020

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX and NDX sold off pre-market on fears of the Chinese virus that is breaking into the news. Chinese tech stocks were hit hard, but the NDX managed to make another all-time high. The passing of the 1/18 Economic Confidence Model turn date only gave the US markets a "speed bump" and the SPX may open Wednesday near an all-time high. The SPX may hold up into Friday's New Moon. The Chinese virus fear did impact airline, casino and cruise stocks.

 

1/21/20 (Commentary for Tuesday) After pre-market weakness this morning from the Chinese virus fears, the NDX made a new all-time high as the Chinese tech stocks lagged. Airline stocks, casino stocks, and cruise stocks were hit. Still, our target of SPX 3340 looks doable by early Wednesday. The Dark Pool reported massive SPY prints from 331.14-331.18 late Friday and today - a break above 333 would be bullish. Only a "massive negative volume reversal day" in the SPY, QQQ and IWM or an hourly EW 5-wave decline on the SPX or NDX will give us a sell signal at this point and we are not there yet - Tim Ord argues that we need to see a weekly RSI at 85 for a high in the SPY - we are above 80 now so that is something to watch. A blow off to SPX 3340-3350  into Friday's New Moon is possible - agile day-traders buying dips in the SPY, QQQ or IWM may do well - however, people with investment capital should wait patiently for a 5%-8% pullback before putting money to work. The US markets climbed the "wall of worry" of US/Iranian missile strikes and the huge Fed injection of QE4 liquidity has driven stocks higher - even the Chinese have injected billions into their banking system. It may take an exotic shock to the system(like the Chinese virus ?) to trigger a pullback but once it happens it will unfold quickly. Gold continues to coil below $1560 as gold stocks (NEM and GOLD) continue to show relative strength - we are looking for more rally on Wednesday. Gold made a mid-December seasonal low which usually leads to a rally into February and the expansion of volatility in the gold market is a harbinger of much higher highs in 2020. The USD is working toward our target of 97.8 which may complete a larger pattern from 96.335.

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – We are looking for more blow off to SPX 3340-3350 after the American 3-day holiday weekend. We may see an important high in the last half of January.

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold stocks are leading gold higher and gold may be retracing up to the $1570-$1580 area in a B-Wave.

• Stocks – The E-mini futures are up strong Tuesday night - we may hit our SPX 3340 target early Wednesday.
• Gold – Gold tested $1569 Monday before selling off into early Tuesday - gold needs a close above $1566 to confirm a new rally phase.
• Silver – Silver fell below $18.00 on Tuesday and tested $17.62 while silver stocks held up.
• Bonds - Bonds rallied in 5-waves on the hourly into Tuesday and look to go higher.
• Crude Oil – After testing $59 Sunday evening, crude oil declined to $57.70 early Tuesday on fears from the new Chinese virus.  
• Dollar Index – The USD could still test 97.8 again before rolling over.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 1/24/20, the New Moon Timing Window.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - January 19, 2020

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX continued to blow off as expected into the holiday weekend - our target of 3340 looks doable by early Tuesday. We will see if Martin Armstrong's Economic Confidence Model turning point on 1/18/20 has any teeth this week, but the "uber-bullish" Barron's cover this weekend may have some sentiment-following traders taking some profits. We retain a lot of cash and are waiting for a 5%-8% correction to deploy investment capital. Despite our sentiment indicators being at historically bullish extremes, we have no interest in shorting unless we have definitive signs of a reversal - a "massive negative volume reversal day" or 5-waves down in the SPX or NDX on the hourly chart.  

 

1/19/20 (Commentary for Sunday) The DJIA, SPX and NDX all made new highs on Friday and the Russell 2000 is trying to test a multi-year high. Our target of SPX 3340 looks doable by Tuesday which is our turn window for the week - with put/call ratios so skewed to overbought, we could see a pullback later this week. The Dark Pool also reported a big print in GLD on Friday which may be portfolio hedging going on as the stock blow off intensifies. Only a "massive negative volume reversal day" in the SPY, QQQ and IWM or an hourly EW 5-wave decline on the SPX or NDX will give us a sell signal at this point and we are not there yet - Tim Ord argues that we need to see a weekly RSI at 85 for a high in the SPY - we are above 80 now so that is something to watch. A blow off to SPX 3340-3350  into monthly expiration this weekend is possible - agile day-traders buying dips in the SPY, QQQ or IWM may do well - however, people with investment capital should wait patiently for a 5%-8% pullback before putting money to work. The US markets climbed the "wall of worry" of US/Iranian missile strikes and the huge Fed injection of QE4 liquidity has driven stocks higher - even the Chinese have injected billions into their banking system. It may take an exotic shock to the system to trigger a pullback but once it happens it will unfold quickly. Gold continues to coil below $1560 as gold stocks (NEM and GOLD) continue to show relative strength - we are looking for more rally on Monday/Tuesday. Gold made a mid-December seasonal low which usually leads to a rally into February and the expansion of volatility in the gold market is a harbinger of much higher highs in 2020. The USD soared on Friday and gave us a multi-week high - we have a target of 97.8 which may complete a larger pattern from 96.335.

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – We are looking for more blow off to SPX 3340-3350 by Tuesday after the American 3-day holiday weekend. We may see an important high in the last half of January.

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold stocks are leading gold higher and gold may be retracing up to the $1570-$1580 area in a B-Wave.

• Stocks – Gold continued to coil below $1560 on Friday while NEM and GOLD rallied in 5-waves higher on the hourly chart - this is bullish for the PM sector.
• Silver – Silver is coiling above $18.00 on Sunday night after silver stocks took a hefty correction on Friday.
• Bonds - Bonds may be triangulating here on the hourly chart - a break below 156'27 will argue for more down.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil bounced above $59 Sunday evening on hostile rhetoric from Tran's Supreme Leader.
• Dollar Index – The USD soared Friday and is targeting 97.80.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 1/21/20, the Tuesday after a monthly expiration.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - January 16, 2020

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The December Retail Sales Report (especially the ex-autos number) came in strong and reassured the market that X-mas sales were up to expectations. The 3-wave pullback in the SPY, QQQ and IWM after the Phase 1 signing on Wednesday was a major buy point that we unfortunately missed because we were stopped out of our TQQQ calls near the close on Tuesday. The market continues to blow off above SPX 3300 and has a possible target of 3340 by Tuesday after the 3-day American market weekend.  We will see if Martin Armstrong's Economic Confidence Model turning point on 1/28/20 has any teeth next week. We retain a lot of cash and are waiting for a 5%-8% correction to deploy investment capital. Despite our sentiment indicators being at historically bullish extremes, we have no interest in shorting unless we have definitive signs of a reversal - a "massive negative volume reversal day" or 5-waves down in the SPX or NDX on the hourly chart   

 

1/16/20 (Commentary for Thursday) The DJIA, SPX and NDX all made new highs today and the Russell 2000 is trying to test a multi-year high. The Dark Pool (Stefanie Kammerman) reported huge (7 mil ) SPY prints at 327.48 late Wednesday and they provided the fuel for the upside explosion today. The Dark Pool is also reporting big prints in GLD and SLV which may be portfolio hedging going on as the stock blow off intensifies. Only a "massive negative volume reversal day" in the SPY, QQQ and IWM or an hourly EW 5-wave decline on the SPX or NDX will give us a sell signal at this point and we are not there yet. A blow off to SPX 3340-3350  into monthly expiration this weekend is possible - agile day-traders buying dips in the SPY, QQQ or IWM may do well - however, people with investment capital should wait patiently for a 5%-8% pullback before putting money to work. The US markets climbed the "wall of worry" of US/Iranian missile strikes and the huge Fed injection of QE4 liquidity has driven stocks higher - even the Chinese have injected billions into their banking system. It may take an exotic shock to the system to trigger a pullback but once it happens it could unfold quickly. Gold continues to coil below $1560 as gold stocks (NEM and GOLD) continue to show relative strength. Gold made a mid-December seasonal low which usually leads to a rally into February and the expansion of volatility in the gold market is a harbinger of much higher highs in 2020. The USD gave us 5-waves down on the hourly chart - a break below 97.08 will confirm a new down leg.

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – We are looking for more blow off to SPX 3340-3350 by Tuesday after the American 3-day holiday weekend. We are looking for an important high in the SPX in the second half of January that could lead to a quick 5%-8% correction like in January-February 2018.

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold stocks are leading gold higher and gold may be retracing up to the $1570-$1580 area in a B-Wave.

• Stocks – Gold continued to coil below $1560 on Thursday while NEM and GOLD rallied in 5-waves higher on the hourly chart - this is bullish for the PM sector.
• Silver – Silver continued to coil below $18 on Thursday and silver stocks are leading higher again which is bullish.
• Bonds - Bonds may be working on an EW a-b-c correction on the hourly chart.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil bounced above $58 on Thursday and looks higher.
• Dollar Index – The USD is rolling over impulsively and a break below 97.08 will confirm a downtrend that could support the PM sector.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week was 1/15/20.