The Daily JDV Market Timer – September 3, 2019

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX's pullback from Friday's New Moon looks corrective and that implies another leg up above 2940 – the E-mini futures are up Tuesday evening. The rally pattern from 8/5 looks like a large EW a-b-c affair that needs one more leg higher above 2940 for a pattern completion. Gold bottomed late Friday and then rallied to test $1558 late in the session – one more leg higher above $1565 is possible tomorrow.

     

9/03/19 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX is tracing out a large zig-zag correction from 8/5 that appears to need one more leg above 2940 before rolling over. Just a corrective pullback from Friday's New Moon argues for one more leg higher above SPX 2940 for a pattern completion. Trump imposed the increased tariffs against Chinese goods on Sunday and global stock markets pulled lower into early Tuesday after the Labor Day holiday. Short-term cycles pointed to a high in the 8/29-8/30 New Moon turn window before a reversal down and we got that – how we trade on Wednesday will determine the short-term trend. Bonds made highs for the move 8/25 at 167'15 and have been correcting sideways – higher highs could be seen this week if the SPX reverses down on Wednesday. Gold made an EW a-b-c into late Friday and bounced to test $1558 late Tuesday – we could see one more high above $1565 on Wednesday to finish a pattern completion. The USD tested 99.3 early Tuesday and started a correction.

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The strong move down on 8/23 confirmed the SPX high on 7/26 at 3027 as the seasonal high – the SPX reversed down at 2940 on Friday's New Moon, but it would take a break below 2850 to signal that the next leg down is in force.
• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold hit $1565 8/25 on the 55-day Fibonacci step out from 7/1 and is corrected into the Friday New Moon – we could see a reversal higher by Tuesday.
• Stocks – The SPX only pulled back correctively from Friday – the SPX could bounce to 2930 early Wednesday before a reversal down.  
• Gold – Gold reversed up Tuesday after the New Moon on Friday and tested $1558 – we are looking for one more leg higher above $1565 on Wednesday.
• Silver – Silver continues to melt up and grind higher and looks to test $21, the 2016 high, by this week
• Bonds – Bonds hit 167'15 on 8/25 before correcting sideways into Tuesday - another higher high is possible this week if the SPX declines below 2850.
• Crude Oil – The seasonal trade set up nicely for natural gas and we are long UNG and BOIL
• Dollar Index – The USD hit 99.33 early Tuesday and started a pullback.

     

TURNING POINT DAY

     

The turn window for this week is 9/3.