Folks,
Market Observations for the Week: The Senate passed the Tax Reform bill late Friday and the S&P Futures is rallying hard to take out the highs seen on Thursday on the evening of the 12/3 Super Moon. We have a Fibonacci 55-week step out from the 11/8/16 Presidential election in the SPX and that implied the start of a 3-4% correction by around the 12/3 Full Moon which is also the start of Mercury retrograde. Our first TRIN5 sell signal of 2017 on Friday will have us watching the market early Monday. Big Picture, though, we believe that the SPX is in an early stage of a blow off that could take us over SPX 3000 and over QQQ 230 by June 2018.
12/03/17 (Commentary for Sunday) US index futures are testing the highs made Thursday and we are seeing more blow off action Sunday night on the 12/3 Super Moon. The false rumor of Flynn testifying against Trump brought extreme volatility to the market Friday but also the first TRIN5 sell signal of the year (< 4.00) - we are looking for a turn down early this week. SPX will be testing pivot resistance early Monday at SPX 2556 and a sell the news reaction to the Senate passing the Tax Reform bill is possible. We're getting an EW a-b-c sell off into the 12/3-12/4 Full Moon Timing Window (Super Moon) - we are looking for a long trade on Monday. Crude oil tested $59 and then pulled back to $56.75 in the Full Moon Timing Window - we're looking for a reversal higher into early next week. The USD may have finished an EW a-b-c correction on the daily chart - a symmetry move to 96.75-97.00 is now expected.
·Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) - The SPX hit pivot resistance at SPX 2556 in a blow off rally from Tuesday through Thursday and that area is being tested again Sunday night, but it will take a move below 2605 to argue a short-term top is in. We are looking for a SPX over 3000 by June 2018.
·Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) - Gold may have bottomed in the 12/1-12/4 Full Moon Timing Window - another run above $1300 is possible before the washout decline we expect into the December rate hike. Overall, we're looking for gold to continue basing into the December FOMC rate hike before reversing strongly higher.
- Stocks - The SPX blew off in a 5th wave from Tuesday through Thursday on hopes of passage of the Tax Reform Bill - the SPX tested pivot resistance at 2656 and those highs are being tested again late Sunday on the Super Moon. We're looking for a possible "sell the news" decline on Monday.
- Gold - Gold declined into the 12/1-12/4 Full Moon Timing Window - we are looking to play a bounce back to $1300.
- Silver – Silver gave us an EW a-b-c decline into the 12/1-12/4 Full Moon Timing Window - we are looking for a bounce.
- Crude Oil - Crude oil tested $59 late on 11/26 and traced out an EW a-b-c correction that tested $56.75 on the Full Moon Timing Window - this could give us trading low.
- Bonds - Bonds finished an EW a-b-c correction on the daily chart on 11/30 and then we did 5-waves up on the hourly which argues that an important low was made on Thursday - we will look at TLT calls on Monday.
- Dollar Index – The USD may have finished an EW a-b-c correction and may be ready for a run to 96.75-97.00 into the December rate hike.
TURNING POINT DAY
The turn window for this week is 12/1-12/4 in the Full Moon (Super Moon) Timing Window.
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