Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - New Update (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)
3/8/10 (Commentary for Monday) Still looking for the SPX to test 1050 by mid-week and then decline into a late March low. The TRIN5 is getting toppy and sentiment polls are developing a bullish extreme. Still, the breakout in the NYSE A/D line has kept a flow of new money into the market. Our bias is that a high this week will be met with a scary decline into late March/early April before the next advance phase. The increasing breath of the market argues for ongoing strength in the junior mining sector especially after the pull back in gold finishes. Gold may have already started its decline into the 36-wk cycle low due around 3/21 - 1-Day Reversal Timing from Starkey is due tomorrow. Bonds could only muster a weak bounce today - short this market on 3-wave bounces. The Dollar Index pulled back today but the short-term pattern is unclear.
- Stocks – The SPX pulled back today - still looking for a test of 1150 by Thursday before a decline into the nine month cycle low due in early April.
- Gold – Gold appears to have peaked in the short-term - 1-Day Reversal Timing is due tomorrow - looking for a decline into the 3/21 26-wk cycle low.
- Silver – Silver is also due a cycle low in mid to late March.
- Crude Oil – Crude Oil has Weekly Reversal Timing due this week - looking for a short-term top and then a decline into late March.
- Bonds - Bonds gave us a weak bounce after an EW 5-wave decline - sell rallies.
- Dollar - The Dollar Index pulled back today but our bias is for at least one more rally attempt into 3/21.
TURNING POINT DAY
Gold is due 1-Day Reversal Timing on Tuesday. A high in the SPX is due mid-week.
Depression Beater Portfolio: New Updates: (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended Holdings:
1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio. (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)
2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.
SOLD 200 shrs of CHK @ $20.82 on 4/16/09
3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.
4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10
SOLD 1000 shrs of DXO at $2.97 on 4/17/09
5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87 on 12/17
SOLD 500 shrs at $5.62 on 4/16/09
6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17
7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19
SOLD 500 shrs at $8.77 on 4/16/09
SOLD 500 shrs at $8.30 on 4/21/09
8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31
SOLD 100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09
REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09
9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09
10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09
11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09
SOLD 200 shrs of AMSC @ $20.36 on 4/17/09
12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09
13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09
14) Bought 1000 shrs of KBX @ $1.15 on 12/22/09
Working orders:
1) Buy 1000 shrs AAU @$0.95 GTC
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