Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - New Update (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)
3/18/10 (Commentary for Thursday) Market internals diverged today as the DJIA and SPX made new recovery highs - new 52 wk highs on the NYSE retreated and the 5-day MA of the all-exchange put/call ratio gave a sell signal. Our bias is for a rally into Monday before a serious reversal attempt. The passing of the latest Health Care Reform Bill by a special procedural vote in the House could be a negative catalyst here. With the Spring Equinox over the weekend, the next chance of a reversal appears to be next Monday or Tuesday after the triple-witching expiration. The gold pattern is a little uncertain here but the 36-wk cycle low from Starkey is due next week - this could impact the equity market as well. Bonds are pulling back here in the face of a heavy auction calendar next week The Dollar Index spiked higher today - look's like it could move higher into Monday. It's not the time to blindly buy the dips, but it's still a treacherous short as some of the down market cycles have not exerted themselves. The weak IBM chart argues for a negative pre-announcement in the not-too-distant future - this has a chance to roil the market.
- Stocks – The grinded higher today in the SPX and DJIA but DIVERGES APPEARED - once the Spring Equinox, triple witching expiration, and the geo-cosmic signatures have passed, the market may see another reversal attempt.
- Gold – Gold's price action is unclear to us - the 36-wk cycle low may not have bottomed yet.
- Silver – Silver appears to be breaking down in the overnight session.
- Crude Oil – Crude Oil consolidated more today - looks ready to test January's high.
- Bonds - Bonds spiked higher to take out last week's high but then reversed down - looking for next leg down.
- Dollar - The Dollar Index spiked higher on the Greece bailout news from Europe - could see more upside here.
TURNING POINT DAY
1-Day Reversal Timing was due for gold on Tuesday - we got a solid rally instead of a reversal down.
Depression Beater Portfolio: New Updates: (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended Holdings:
1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio. (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)
2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.
SOLD 200 shrs of CHK @ $20.82 on 4/16/09
3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.
4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10
SOLD 1000 shrs of DXO at $2.97 on 4/17/09
5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87 on 12/17
SOLD 500 shrs at $5.62 on 4/16/09
6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17
7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19
SOLD 500 shrs at $8.77 on 4/16/09
SOLD 500 shrs at $8.30 on 4/21/09
8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31
SOLD 100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09
REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09
9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09
10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09
11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09
SOLD 200 shrs of AMSC @ $20.36 on 4/17/09
12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09
13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09
14) Bought 1000 shrs of KBX @ $1.15 on 12/22/09
Working orders:
1) Buy 1000 shrs AAU @$0.95 GTC
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