Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - New Update (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)
3/10/10 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX gave us another test of the 1150 and we got some more sell signals. The TRIN5 reading was 3.77 - the lowest since the 3.7 reading on 2/2 that gave us a quick 60 point loss in the SPX. The 5-day MA of the all-exchange put/call ratio gave us a very low 3.48 reading that is also a sell signal. The prominent geo-cosmic signature also ends tomorrow and that should end the topping process that we've seen this week. The Chinese are expected to tighten interest rates tonight and that could be a catalyst for market action tomorrow if the action or language is "heavier than expected". Gold declined today, in spite of a weaker Dollar Index, and is pulling back into the 36-wk cycle low due around 3/21. The bond market looks heavy and should be shorted on 3-wave bounce on the 5 min chart. The dollar index price pattern is hard to fathom here - the Euro is getting a good bounce with the VIX ~ 18 this is a good place to add some April puts in anticipation of a short and scary pull back going into the nine month cycle low due late March. The breakout in the NYSE A/D line has kept a flow of new money into the market. Our bias is that a market high this week will be met with a scary decline into late March/early April before the next advancing phase. The increasing breath of the market argues for ongoing strength in the junior mining sector especially after the pull back in gold finishes.
- Stocks – The SPX tested 1150 again before the market turned down - the TRIN5 gave a sell signal. A small move in the McClellan Oscillator argues for a big move in the next two trading days. A decline into the nine month cycle low is due in early April.
- Gold – Gold declined again despite the weak Dollar Index - a sign of weakness - looking for a decline into the 36-wk cycle low around 3/21.
- Silver – Silver is also due a cycle low in mid to late March.
- Crude Oil – Crude Oil gave us a CONFIRMED Weekly Reversal down signal today.
- Bonds - Bonds gave us a weak bounce the auction - sell rallies.
- Dollar - The Dollar Index pulled back today but our bias is for at least one more rally attempt into 3/21.
TURNING POINT DAY
Gold is due 1-Day Reversal Timing on Tuesday. A high in the SPX is due mid-week. The geo-cosmic signature supporting the topping process ends on 3/11.
Depression Beater Portfolio: New Updates: (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended Holdings:
1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio. (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)
2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.
SOLD 200 shrs of CHK @ $20.82 on 4/16/09
3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.
4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10
SOLD 1000 shrs of DXO at $2.97 on 4/17/09
5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87 on 12/17
SOLD 500 shrs at $5.62 on 4/16/09
6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17
7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19
SOLD 500 shrs at $8.77 on 4/16/09
SOLD 500 shrs at $8.30 on 4/21/09
8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31
SOLD 100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09
REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09
9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09
10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09
11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09
SOLD 200 shrs of AMSC @ $20.36 on 4/17/09
12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09
13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09
14) Bought 1000 shrs of KBX @ $1.15 on 12/22/09
Working orders:
1) Buy 1000 shrs AAU @$0.95 GTC
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