All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - September 5, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX continues to sub-divide down into the NFP jobs report early Friday and we expect big volatility tomorrow. We've had a string of weaker-than-expected labor reports this week and a weaker-than-expected NFP jobs report could impact Fed rate cut policy on 9/18. If we get an a clear EW 5-waves down from 8/30 in the SPX on its hourly chart, our bias is that a Major High is already in place in the US stock market. The weak ADP jobs report on Thursday has magnified the importance of Friday's NFP jobs report which will set the short-term trend of the SPX. The previous Septembers in 2021, 2022, and 2023 saw strong selling early in the month and that is a CAUTION FLAG here because of the 1929 analog model for the DJIA. We are still considering the year 2007 market analog as another possible roadmap for the fall of 2024 because it had a similar Fed policy action(first rate cut on 9/14/07 with SPX ATH on 10/11/07) and a similar astro-finance setup in the skies. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

9/05/24 (Commentary for Thursday)  Weak labor reports so far this week has given the market another "growth scare" with the pressure now on Friday's NFP report to dispel this cloud. How the SPX reacts to the NFP jobs report early Friday will set the short-term trend of the market. Our bias is that the US markets made a short-term high into the 9/2-9/3 New Moon and that is a CAUTION FLAG - if we see a clean EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart for the E-mini, that will signify that a MAJOR HIGH could be behind us. Gold is testing $2550 overnight Thursday and consolidating at a high level.   

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX made a double top on Friday at its 7/16 ATH at 5669. The E-mini held up into Monday evening and we are calling the US stock markets as making a HIGH into the 9/2-9/3 New Moon - this is a CAUTION FLAG for more selling into Friday's NFP jobs report.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold is testing its R1-pivot resistance at $2535 overnight Wednesday, but gold could continue to consolidate into Friday's NFP jobs report.

Stocks – The US markets made a HIGH into the 9/2-9/3 New Moon and we expect more selling into Friday's NFP jobs report. If we see an EW 5-waves down in the E-mini on the hourly chart, we could be confirming a MAJOR HIGH. The ES found resistance at its 0.382 retracement on Wednesday and turned back down.

Gold – Gold made a New Moon low at $2502 overnight Wednesday and is reversing up early Thursday to test $2550.

Silver –  Silver is consolidating around $29.11 going into the NFP report..

Bonds – Bonds spiking to 126'02 overnight Thursday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil made a New Moon low at $68.82 early Wednesday.

Dollar Index – The USD is consolidating around 101 going into Friday. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 9/2-9/4 New Moon Timing Window.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - September 4, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX gave us a double top in the holiday weekend turn window and started a pullback that continued into Wednesday. If we get an EW 5-waves down from late Friday, our bias is that a Major High is in place in the US stock market. On Tuesday we saw broad-based selling in the US markets and a pullback into Friday's NFP jobs report is in play. The previous Septembers in 2021, 2022, and 2023 saw strong selling early in the month and that is a CAUTION FLAG here. If the E-mini gives us an EW 5-wave decline on the hourly chart, that will also imply a MAJOR HIGH is already in place - how the E-mini trades into Friday's NFP will enlighten us. We are still considering the year 2007 market analog as a potential roadmap for the fall of 2024 because it had a similar Fed policy action(first rate cut on 9/14/07 with SPX ATH on 10/11/07) and a similar astro-finance setup in the skies. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

9/04/24 (Commentary for Wednesday)  The DJIA, SPXEW and the NYSE all made new ATHs on Friday and the SPX gave us a DOUBLE TOP of the 7/16 ATH in the SPX at 5669.  Our bias is that the US markets made a short-term high into the 9/2-9/3 New Moon and that is a CAUTION FLAG - if we see an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart for the E-mini, that will signify that a MAJOR HIGH is behind us. How the E-mini trades into Friday's NFP jobs report will illuminate us. Gold is testing its R2-pivot resistance at $2550 early Thursday and we made a low in the 9/3-9/4 New Moon Timing Window.   

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX made a double top on Friday at its 7/16 ATH at 5669. The E-mini held up into Monday evening and we are calling the US stock markets as making a HIGH into the 9/2-9/3 New Moon - this is a CAUTION FLAG for more selling into Friday's NFP jobs report.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold is consolidating near $2550 overnight Thursday ahead of Friday's NFP jobs report.

Stocks – The SPX continued to sub-divide down into Thursday close and the pressure is now on Friday's NFP jobs report to dispel the latest growth scare. If we see a clean EW 5-waves down in the E-mini on the hourly chart, we could be confirming a MAJOR HIGH. We are expecting big volatility on Friday.

Gold – Gold made a New Moon low at $2502 overnight Wednesday and is consolidating near $2550 overnight Thursday before the NFP job's report.

Silver –  Silver is consolidating near $29.18 ahead of the NFP jobs report.

Bonds – Bonds are testing 126'04 early Friday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is consolidating around $69.41 overnight Thursday.

Dollar Index – The USD tis testing 101.1 early Thursday on the weaker ADP jobs report. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 9/2-9/4 New Moon Timing Window.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - September 3, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX and NDX gave us just a 3-wave pullback into Friday and then the SPX rallied into the weekend with a double top of the 7/16 ATH at 5669.  Since the E-mini held up Monday evening, we are calling the US stock markets making a HIGH going into the 9/2-9/3 New Moon Timing Window. On Tuesday we saw broad-based selling in the US markets and we could see a pullback into Friday's NFP jobs report. The previous Septembers in 2021, 2022, and 2023 saw some strong selling and that is a CAUTION FLAG here. If the E-mini gives us an EW 5-wave decline on the hourly chart, that could mean that we may have seen a MAJOR HIGH- how the E-mini trades into Friday's NFP will enlighten us. The DJIA, NYSE and SPXEW all made new ATHs on Friday and that also argues that at least a short-term top was made in the US on the 9/2-9/3 New Moon.  We are still focused on the year 2007 market analog as a potential roadmap for the fall of 2024 because it had a similar Fed policy action(first rate cut on 9/14/07 with SPX ATH on 10/11/07) and a similar astro-finance setup in the skies. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

9/03/24 (Commentary for Tuesday)  The DJIA, SPXEW and the NYSE all made new ATHs on Friday and the SPX gave us a DOUBLE TOP of the 7/16 ATH in the SPX at 5669.  We are calling that the US markets made a short-term high into the 9/2-9/3 New Moon and that is a CAUTION FLAG - if we see an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart for the E-mini, that will signify that an important high was made. How the E-mini trades into Friday's NFP jobs report will illuminate us. Gold tested $2503 overnight Tuesday and may continue down into Friday's NFP jobs report.   

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX made a double top on Friday at its 7/16 ATH at 5669. The E-mini held up into Monday evening and we are calling the US stock markets making a HIGH into the 9/2-9/3 New Moon - this is a CAUTION FLAG for more selling into Friday's NFP jobs report.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold is testing $2503 overnight Tuesday but is trying to pull back into Friday's NFP jobs report.

Stocks – The US markets made a HIGH into the 9/2-9/3 New Moon and we expect more selling into Friday's NFP jobs report. If we see an EW 5-waves down in the E-mini on the hourly chart, we could be confirming a MAJOR HIGH.

Gold – Gold tested $2502 overnight Tuesday as crude oil and uranium continue to weaken.

Silver –  Silver continues to make a sideways consolidation from Tuesday.

Bonds – Bonds held 124'00 overnight Tuesday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is probing $69 early Wednesday in the 9/2-9/4 New Moon Timing Window.

Dollar Index – The USD tested 102 Tuesday but is weakening into Wednesday. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 9/2-9/4 New Moon Timing Window.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - September 2, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX and NDX gave us just a 3-wave pullback into Friday and then the SPX finished with a test of the ATH at 5669. Thursday's head fake to the downside got us flat on SPY calls, but it now appears that a marginal high in the SPX is now possible into the 9/2-9/4 New Moon Timing Window. The Option Premium Ratio gave us a back-to-back reading of 0.78 and that argues for a short-term high in the SPX Tuesday. The DJIA, NYSE and SPXEW all made new ATHs on Friday and that also argues for some short-term top in the stock market on Tuesday/Wednesday.  There is typically positive seasonality going into the US Labor Day holiday weekend and the action on Friday validated that. We may be seeing the 5th wave breakout now in the SPX  Overall though, the new ATHs in the NYSE and SPXEW continue to paint the picture of a "broadening top" in the US stock market and we are still looking for important index highs in September/October. We are still focused on the year 2007 market analog as a roadmap for the fall of 2024 because it had a similar Fed policy action(first rate cut on 9/14/07 with SPX ATH on 10/11/07) and a similar astro-finance setup in the skies. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

9/02/24 (Commentary for Monday)  After just a 3-wave correction from Thursday into Friday, the SPX reversed higher in a 5th wave and tested the 5669 ATH. The DJIA, SPXEW and the NYSE all made new ATHs on Friday and could make higher highs into the 9/2-9/4 new Moon Timing Window. The SPX still has a chance to make higher highs into the 9/2-9/4 New Moon Timing Window before a short-term high is established. Gold continues to work on making a low into Monday/Tuesday. We are using 2007 as an analog market year for the SPX and are expecting a rally from August into September/October.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX gave us a 3-wave correction from Thursday into Friday and then reversed in a 5th wave higher to test the 5669 ATH late Friday - higher highs are possible on Tuesday. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold is working on making a low near $2522 on the 9/2-9/3 New Moon.

Stocks – After just a 3-wave pullback into Friday, the ES is reversing higher into the 9/3 New Moon. We could see higher highs into Tuesday.

Gold – Gold is trying to make a low into the 9/2-9/3 turn window. 

Silver –  We believe that 8/7 was a "panic low" for silver and it has started a rally to test $32 soon. Silver could be giving us an EW a-b-c correction into the 9/3 New Moon. 

Bonds – Bonds are pulling back to 123'05 early Tuesday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $73 going into the New Moon.

Dollar Index – The USD is bouncing to test 101.63 late Monday. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 9/2-9/4 New Moon Timing Window.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - August 29, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX and NDX rallied back after a post-NVDA earnings report selloff overnight, but the SPX reversed down around 1 pm EDT and closed the market with a negative tone - this is a CAUTION FLAG - we closed out our short-term long trades. There is typically positive seasonality going into the US Labor Day holiday weekend, but the close today argues that the 4th wave correction is still in force and we could see lower lows below SPX 5560. We have the PCE inflation report early Friday and that could set the early tone. Our bias was for a high into the 9/3-9/4 New Moon Timing Window but today's close argues that it could be a low.  Overall though, the new ATHs in the NYSE and SPXEW continue to paint the picture of a "broadening top" in the US stock market and we are still looking for important index highs in September/October. We are still focused on the year 2007 market analog as a roadmap for the fall of 2024 because it had a similar Fed policy action(first rate cut on 9/14/07 with SPX ATH on 10/11/07) and a similar astro-finance setup in the skies. Our Option Premium Ratio(OPR) came it at 0.78  - this argues for potentially lower lows into next week. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

8/28/24 (Commentary for Wednesday)  The SPX closed poorly on Thursday and that changed our short-term bias - we closed out our short-term long trades and are looking for a possible continuation of the 4th wave correction into early next week. The SPXEW and the NYSE both made highs for the week and reversed down into the close and we turned cautious for the short term. The SPX still has a chance to reverse up in a 5th wave higher into the 9/3 New Moon but that is looking less likely now. Gold continues to consolidate in a tight range as we trade into Friday. We are using 2007 as an analog market year for the SPX and are expecting a rally from August into September/October.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX made a weak close on Thursday and its 4th wave correction  could extend into next week- We closed out our short-term long trades Thursday and are waiting. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold made a B-Wave test of $2570 on Tuesday and continues to consolidate into Friday.

Stocks – The SPX and NDX rebounded nicely early Thursday but the reversal down into Thursday's close turned us cautious. We may still reverse higher into the 9/3-9/4 New Moon turn window but we decided to close out our short-term long trades.

Gold – Gold made a B-Wave test of $2570 on Tuesday and continues to consolidate sideways into Friday. 

Silver –  We believe that 8/7 was a "panic low" for silver and it started a rally to test $32 soon. Silver  gave us 5-waves down on the hourly chart on Wednesday and may have just bounced correctively into Friday - we are cautious and sold our short-term long trades. 

Bonds – Bonds are holding at 123'26 early Friday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil bounced on Thursday but is pulling back overnight. We sold our XOM calls Thursday.

Dollar Index – The USD is bouncing to test 101.5 early Friday. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 8/26 and 8/28.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - August 28, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The earnings from NVDA came in better than estimates, but not as good as the whisper numbers, so the futures sold off overnight. We were wrong about "blow-out" earnings from NVDA, but the NQ and ES futures could recover Thursday mornings. We plan to sit tight and see how the market opens on Thursday, but take action if the NDX continues to sub-divide lower after the first hour of trading. There is typically positive seasonality going into the US Labor Day holiday weekend. We also believe that the 9/3-9/4 New Moon Timing Window could still be a high if the lunar cycle inverts from August where the New Moon came in as a low on 8/5 and as a high on 8/20.  Overall though, the new ATHs in the NYSE and SPXEW continue to paint the picture of a "broadening top" in the US stock market and we are still looking for important index highs in September/October. We are still focused on the year 2007 market analog as a roadmap for the fall of 2024 because it had a similar Fed policy action(first rate cut on 9/14/07 with SPX ATH on 10/11/07) and a similar astro-finance setup in the skies. Our Option Premium Ratio(OPR) ran up from 0.62 on Tuesday's close to 0.85 on Wednesday's close - this could be a potentially bearish breakout if not reversed down by Thursday's close. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

8/28/24 (Commentary for Wednesday)  The SPX and NDX reversed down on the 21-day Fibonacci step out from 8/5 and we were looking for a pullback into Wednesday which we got - continued sub-division down to a negative close on Thursday would change our short-term bias. The SPXEW and the NYSE rallied to new ATHs on Monday but the SPX and NDX could only manage lower highs. The ES and NQ continue their 4th wave correction overnight Wednesday. Our bias is that the SPX still has a chance to reverse up in a 5th wave higher into the 9/3 New Moon. Gold rallied to a new high in the 8/19-8/20 3-star critical reversal day and just made a B-Wave test of that high on Tuesday night at $2564 - we could see a C-Wave down into Thursday. We are using 2007 as an analog market year for the SPX and are expecting a rally from August into September/October.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX is still continuing its 4th wave correction and it could extend into Thursday- We need to see a reversal up in a 5th wave in the SPX and NDX early Thursday or change our short-term bias for a rally into the 9/3-9/4 New Moon Timing Window. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold made a B-Wave test of $2570 on Tuesday and we could see a C-Wave down into Thursday.

Stocks – The ES and NQ continued down into Wednesday evening after the NVDA earnings. Our bias is for the SPX and NDX to reverse higher early Thursday and rally into the 9/3-9/4 New Moon Timing Window. 

Gold – Gold made a B-Wave test of $2570 on Tuesday and declined into Wednesday but held $2500 - we are trying to rally early Thursday. 

Silver –  We believe that 8/7 was a "panic low" for silver and it started a rally to test $32 soon. Silver  gave us 5-waves down on the hourly chart on Wednesday and is trying to rally early Thursday. 

Bonds – Bonds are holding at 124'08 overnight Wednesday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil pulled back in an EW a-b-c correction on Wednesday. The XLE is looking attractive to us.

Dollar Index – The USD is consolidating sideways and holding around 101 overnight Wednesday. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 8/26 and 8/28.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - August 27, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Nothing much has changed for us. We are looking now for more SPX and NDX consolidation into Wednesday before the NVDA earnings. The NVDA earnings report will set the short-term market tone going into the holiday weekend. Our bias is for blowout earnings once again from NVDA which will launch a 5th wave higher in the SPX and NDX to new ATHs into 9/3-9/4 - the New Moon Timing Window. Overall, the new ATHs in the NYSE and SPXEW continue to paint the picture of a "broadening top" in the US stock market and we are looking for important index highs in September/October. We are still focused on the year 2007 market analog as a roadmap for the fall of 2024 because it had a similar Fed policy action(first rate cut on 9/14/07 with SPX ATH on 10/11/07) and a similar astro-finance setup in the skies. The "panic selloff" into 8/5 from the Yen-carry trade unwind also fueled the run up in gold into the 3-star critical reversal turn window of 8/19-8/20 to $2570, however, gold gave us just a B-Wave test of its ATH going into its 8/23-8/26 21-day Fibonacci step out and we expect more consolidation into Wednesday. If a similar run(compared to year 2007) happens in the next few months for the stock market, we will then expect the SPX to reverse back down and retest the 5200 level at some point after the election. Our updated positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.  

 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 8/26 and 8/28.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - August 26, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The 21-day Fibonacci step out from 8/5 did come in today for the SPX and NDX. We are looking now for a pullback into Wednesday before the NVDA earnings which will set the short-term tone for the market on. Our bias is to expect blowout earnings once again from NVDA which will launch a 5th wave higher in the SPX and NDX to new ATHs into 9/3. Overall, the new ATHs in the NYSE and SPXEW continue to paint the picture of a "broadening top" in the US stock market and we are looking for important index highs in September/October. We are still focused on the year 2007 market analog as a roadmap for the fall of 2024 because it had a similar Fed policy action(first rate cut on 9/14/07 with SPX ATH on 10/11/07) and a similar astro-finance setup in the skies. The "panic selloff" into 8/5 from the Yen-carry trade unwind also fueled the run up in gold into the 3-star critical reversal turn window of 8/19-8/20 to $2570, however, gold gave us just a B-Wave test of its ATH going into its 8/23-8/26 21-day Fibonacci step out. If a similar run(to year 2007) happens in the next few months for the stock market, we will then expect the SPX to reverse back down and retest the 5200 level. Our updated positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.  

8/26/24 (Commentary for Monday)  The SPX and NDX reversed down on the 21-day Fibonacci step out from 8/5 and we are looking for a pullback into Wednesday. The SPXEW and the NYSE rallied to new ATHs on Monday but the SPX and NDX could only manage lower highs. The SPX is still correcting in a 4th wave that should bottom on Wednesday before the NVDA earnings. Our bias is that the market will like the NVDA earnings report and the SPX and NDX will reverse up in a 5th wave higher into the 9/3 New Moon. Gold rallied to a new high in the 8/19-8/20 3-star critical reversal day and just made a B-Wave test of that high on Friday - we are looking for 5-waves down on the hourly into Wednesday to get long again for a trade. We are using 2007 as an analog market year for the SPX and are expecting a rally from August into September/October.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX is still continuing its 4th wave correction could extend into 8/28 (NVDA earnings after the close) - we are looking for a reversal up in a 5th wave in the ES and NQ after NVDA earnings and into the 9/3 New Moon. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold made a B-Wave test of $2570 on Monday and we are looking for 5-waves down on the hourly into Tuesday/Wednesday to take a position.

Stocks – The SPXEW and the NYSE made new ATHs on Monday but the SPX and NDX just made lower highs. The 4th wave correction for the SPX may extend into 8/28 (NVDA earnings) - we are looking for the ES and NQ to reverse higher after the NVDA report.  

Gold – Gold made a B-Wave test of $2570 on Monday - we are now looking for 5-waves down on the hourly chart to get long into Wednesday. 

Silver –  We believe that 8/7 was a "panic low" for silver and it started a rally to test $32 soon. Silver  tested $30 early Monday in what looks like a B-Wave - we are looking for 5-waves down on the hourly chart into Wednesday to get long. 

Bonds – Bonds pulled back to 124'03 early Tuesday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is pilling back to $75.13 early Tuesday. The XLE is looking attractive to us.

Dollar Index – The USD is consolidating sideways before more down - testing 100.7 early Tuesday. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 8/26 and 8/28.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - August 25, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Chairman Powell alerted the financial markets that the Fed was about to start rate cuts in the US but specifics were lacking. In any case, the financial markets rallied with the NYSE and the SPXEW all making new ATHs. The 21-day Fibonacci step out for the SPX and NDX, from the 8/5 panic low,  comes in on Monday and that could give us a correction for a few days. We are also cautious on the very low CBOE put/call ratios seen last week and took some money off the table into Friday's close. Overall, the new highs in the NYSE and SPXEW continue to paint the picture of a "broadening top" in the US stock market and we are looking for important index highs in September/October. We are still focused on the year 2007 market analog as a roadmap for the fall of 2024 because it had a similar Fed policy action(first rate cut on 9/14/07 with SPX ATH on 10/11/07) and a similar astro-finance setup in the skies. The "panic selloff" into 8/5 from the Yen-carry trade unwind also fueled the run up in gold into the 3-star critical reversal turn window of 8/19-8/20 to $2570, however, gold gave us just a B-Wave test of its ATH going into its 8/23-8/26 21-day Fibonacci step out. If a similar run(to year 2007) happens in the next few months for the stock market, we will then expect the SPX to reverse back down and retest the 5200 level. Our updated positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.  

8/25/24 (Commentary for Sunday)  The SPX rallied on Friday after Chairman Powell's speech on preparing the markets for a potential cut in rates. The SPXEW and the NYSE rallied to a new ATH but the SPX and NDX could only manage lower highs. Still, with the 21-day Fibonacci step out on Monday, we are expecting a move lower for a few days. Our bias is that the SPX is correcting in a 4th wave that could have bottomed late Thursday or could extend a few days more in the coming week before reversing up in a 5th wave higher - how we trade on Monday will enlighten us. Gold rallied to a new high in the 8/19-8/20 3-star critical reversal day and may have just made a B-Wave test of that high on Friday. A major rally started in the 8/4-8/6 New Moon Timing Window and after eight straight days of rally, the SPX  started a 4th wave consolidation pattern that may continue into 8/28 or so before reversing up in a 5th wave higher - Monday's trade should enlighten us. We are using 2007 as a possible analog market year for the SPX and are expecting a rally from August into September/October.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX may have ended its 4th wave correction late Thursday or it could extend into 8/28 before reversing up in a 5th wave higher. How we trade on Monday will enlighten us. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold broke out of a bullish  "cup and handle" formation on the hourly chart and tested $2570 Tuesday in the 8/19-8/20 turn window before starting a 3-wave correction into late Thursday.

Stocks – The SPXEW and the NYSE made new ATHs on Friday but the SPX and NDX just made lower highs. the 4th wave correction for the SPX may extend into 8/28 - how we trade on Monday will enlighten us. The low CBOE put/call ratios last week argue for some caution here. 

Gold – Gold made an ATH at $2570 on Tuesday before starting a 3-wave correction into Friday. The rally on Friday could have been just a B-Wave test. How we trade on Monday will enlighten us.

Silver –  We believe that 8/7 was a "panic low" for silver and it started a rally to test $32 soon. Silver is testing $30 overnight Sunday. 

Bonds – Bonds are holding 125'00 overnight Sunday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is rallying to $75.54 overnight Sunday.

Dollar Index – The USD is testing 100.53 overnight Sunday. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 8/26 and 8/28.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - August 22, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Since early Wednesday, the SPX has pulled back in a 3-wave correction that closed at the lows of the day on Thursday ahead of Chairman Powell's address early Friday. With the CBOE equity put/call ratio now at lower lows than at the 7/16 SPX ATH, the market has a risk of more decline into Friday/Monday. We have seen some of the lowest CBOE put/call ratios of the year this week and are now cautious going into the Friday Fed event which could generate more downside volatility. The correction pattern in the SPX and gold both look 4th wave corrective. The "panic selloff" into 8/5 from the Yen-carry trade unwind has fueled the run up in the SPX and gold that could carry on into September. We favor the year 2007 SPX analog here as a roadmap for the balance of 2024 - a 10% panic selloff from a July high into 8/5 and then a divergent SPX high into 10/11. If a similar run happens in the next few months, we will then expect the SPX to reverse back down and retest the 5200 level. Gold bounced from late Monday evening and made a high at $2570 Tuesday - we are now tracing out a 4th wave into early Friday and Chairman Powell's speech. Our updated positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.  

8/22/24 (Commentary for Thursday)  The SPX rallied into the 8/19-8/20 3-star critical reversal turn window and then corrected in 3-waves into Thursday's close before Chairman Powell's talk early Friday at Jackson Hole. We are expecting big volatility on Friday in the SPX. Our bias, however, is that the SPX is correcting in a 4th wave that could bottom by Friday/Monday and then reverse higher in a 5th wave higher from the 8/5 low. The NYSE composite made a new ATH on Monday and the NYSE Advance/Decline line also made a new ATH which confirms the bull market going forward. The NDX rallied past its 34-day Fibonacci step out on 8/14 and that is a sign of strength. The QQQ peaked at 481 overnight Monday and started a 3-wave correction into the Friday Fed meeting at Jackson Hole. The NVDA earnings on 8/28 could keep Big Tech elevated until the end of the month. A major rally started in the 8/4-8/6 New Moon Timing Window and after eight straight days of rally, the SPX  started a 4th wave consolidation pattern that ran into Thursday's close. We are using 2007 as a possible analog market year for the SPX and are expecting a rally from August into September/October.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  After eight straight days of rally, the SPX found resistance at the 5621 gap in the 8/19-8/20 turn window and started a 3-wave correction into Chairman Powell's speech early Friday. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold broke out of a bullish  "cup and handle" formation on the hourly chart and tested $2570 Tuesday in the 8/19-8/20 turn window before starting a 3-wave correction into late Thursday.

Stocks – The SPX tested 5621 on Monday and then started a 3-wave correction into Thursday's close. The low CBOE put/call ratio argues for the chance of a deeper SPX pullback going into Friday/Monday. 

Gold – Gold tested $2570 on Tuesday before starting a 3-wave correction into Friday. The solar-lunar cycles argue for big volatility on Friday in the PM sector.

Silver –  We believe that 8/7 was a "panic low" for silver and it started a rally to test $32 soon. Silver tested $30 early Tuesday before pulling back into a 3-wave correction into late Thursday. 

Bonds – Bonds pulled back to 124'09 on Thursday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil made a multi-week lows at $71.46 Wednesday evening.

Dollar Index – The USD bounced to 101.34 Thursday evening. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 8/19-8/20 and 8/23.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - August 21, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX continued to consolidate sideways in a 4th wave and the Fed minutes generated little volatility. The SPX should consolidate into Friday with Chairman Powell's talk at Jackson Hole, WY. We are seeing some of the lowest CBOE put/call ratios of the year this week and are now cautious going into the Friday Fed event which could generate downside volatility. The correction pattern in the SPX and gold both look 4th wave corrective. The "panic selloff" into 8/5 from the Yen-carry trade unwind is "fueling" the run up in the SPX and gold that could carry on into September. We favor the year 2007 SPX analog here as a roadmap for the balance of 2024 - a 10% panic selloff from a July high into 8/5 and then a divergent SPX high into 10/10. If a similar run happens in the next few months, we will then expect the SPX to reverse down and retest the 5200 level as on 8/5. Gold bounced from late Monday evening and made a high at $2570 Tuesday - we are now tracing out a 4th wave into early Friday and Chairman Powell's speech. Our updated positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.  

8/21/24 (Commentary for Wednesday)  The SPX rallied into the 8/19-8/20 3-star critical reversal turn window and reversed down after testing the gap at 5621 and is now consolidating sideways into Chairman Powell's speech early Friday. The NYSE composite made a new ATH on Monday and the NYSE Advance/Decline line also made a new ATH which confirms the bull market going forward. The NDX rallied past its 34-day Fibonacci step out on 8/14 and that is a sign of strength. The QQQ peaked at 481 overnight Monday and started a sideways consolidation into the Friday Fed meeting at Jackson Hole. The NVDA earnings on 8/28 could keep Big Tech elevated until the end of the month. However, the Yen appears to be coiling for a 5th wave higher and that could give us some potential for downside volatility by Friday. A major rally started in the 8/4-8/6 New Moon Timing Window and after eight straight days of rally, the SPX found resistance on Tuesday at the 5621 level and started a 4th wave consolidation pattern. We are using 2007 as a possible analog market year for the SPX and are expecting a rally from August into September/October.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  After eight straight days of rally, the SPX found resistance at the 5621 gap in the 8/19-8/20 turn window and is now consolidating sideways into Chairman Powell's speech early Friday. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold broke out of a bullish  "cup and handle" formation on the hourly chart and tested $2570 Tuesday in the 8/19-8/20 turn window before starting a 4th wave sideways consolidation into Friday.

Stocks – The SPX tested 5632 and partially filled the gap from 7/17 before continuing a 4th wave consolidation into Friday. The low CBOE put/call ratio argues for the chance of a deeper SPX pullback going into Friday. 

Gold – Gold tested $2570 on Tuesday before starting a 4th consolidation into Friday. The solar-lunar cycles argue for big volatility on Friday.

Silver –  We believe that 8/7 was a "panic low" for silver and it started a rally to test $32 soon. Silver tested $30 early Tuesday before pulling back into a sideways consolidation. 

Bonds – Bonds are holding up at 124'31 Wednesday evening.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is making multi-week lows at $71.46 Wednesday evening.

Dollar Index – The USD continued to sub-divide down and tested 100.92 which is boosting the PM sector.  

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 8/19 and 8/23.