All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - March 20, 2025

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX pulled back going into Triple Witching expiration on Friday, 3/21 and the high-energy nature of the 3/20-3/24 turn window has us expecting more volatility. More SPX upside is possible into Friday/Monday - exhaustion signals seen from 3/13 argue that a bounce to SPX 5780 is possible in the short-term.  Gold made a new ATH at $3065 overnight Wednesday and is giving us a 3-wave correction into Friday, 3/21. Our current investment positions positions have been updated to 25% cash, 30% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our trading account which was updated Wednesday to 50% cash, 0% SLV, 0% GLD, and 25% UCO on Thursday's close.

3/20/25 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX may be giving us just a corrective bounce into the 3/20-3/24 turn window but higher highs to SPX 5780 are still possible. The SPX bottomed in the 3/13-3/14 Full Moon/lunar eclipse and could give us a Fibonacci 8 to 13 day bounce into the 3/20-3/24 turn window. The Zweig Breath Thrust Indicator pulled back to 0.51 but needs to touch 0.60 by 3/25 to reconfirm the bull market in stocks - we are watching this closely. The Option Premium Ratio is reflecting the volatility in the overall market and bounced from 0.93 to 1.10 on Friday's close. We just converted 30% of our cash position to equivalent shares in GDXJ/SILJ/XLE because PM stocks and oil stocks are strongly outperforming the SPX and NDX in 2025. Gold made a new ATH at $3065 overnight Wednesday and is correcting in 3-waves into overnight Thursday. Silver tested $35 on Tuesday before pulling back in 3-waves into overnight Thursday. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The SPX gave us a 10% correction on the SPX into 3/13 and we expect a bounce up to 5760 by 3/24. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold rallied to a new ATH at $3065 overnight Wednesday  - the 3/20-3/24 turn window could be important for gold.

Stocks – Our SPX sold off going into Triple-Witching expiration  on Friday, 3/21 - we are expecting big volatility through 3/25 and an upside target of 5780 is possible. 

Gold - Gold made a new ATH to $3065 overnight Wednesday and is pulling back in just 3-waves into overnight Thursday. 

Silver – Silver touched $35 on Tuesday and started a 3-wave decline into overnight Thursday.

Bonds – Bonds rallied in 5-waves from 116'10 early Wednesday and tested 118'23 early Thursday and is now correcting in just 3-waves into early Friday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil rallied to $68.65, highs for the week, into overnight Thursday.

Dollar Index – The USD is rallying to 104.15, highs for the week, into overnight Thursday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 3/17, 3/19 and 3/21.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - March 19, 2025

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX rallied after a "dovish take from Chairman Powell" but we may have finished a "minimal EW a-b-c" upside correction from 3/13. More SPX upside is possible into early Thursday but our TRIN-5 indicator gave us an overbought closing reading of 3.86(< 4.0) and our Option Premium Ratio fell from 1.20 to 0.93 which is a short-term SELL SIGNAL ( falling > 0.25 from an OPR of > 1.0).  Gold made a new ATH at $3065 overnight Wednesday but both the GDX and silver is lagging. Our current positions have been updated to 25% cash, 30% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our trading account which was updated Wednesday to 25% cash, 25% SLV, 25% GLD, and 25% UCO on Wednesday's close.

3/19/25 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX may be giving us just a corrective bounce into the 3/20-3/24 turn window. The SPX bottomed in the 3/13-3/14 Full Moon/lunar eclipse and could give us just a Fibonacci 8 to 13 day bounce into the 3/20-3/24 turn window. The Zweig Breath Thrust Indicator rallied back to 0.54 but needs to touch 0.60 by 3/25 to reconfirm the bull market in stocks. The Option Premium Ratio dropped from 1.20 to 0.93 which is a short-term SELL SIGNAL for Thursday. We just converted 30% of our cash position to equivalent shares in GDXJ/SILJ/XLE because PM stocks and oil stocks are strongly outperforming the SPX and NDX in 2025. Gold made a new ATH at $3065 overnight Wednesday and is correcting sideways. Silver tested $35 on Tuesday before pulling back in 3-waves into Wednesday. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The SPX gave us a 10% correction on the SPX into 3/13 and we expect a bounce up to 5760 by 3/24. Our Option Premium Ratio gave us a SELL SIGNAL on today's close.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold rallied to a new ATH at $3065 overnight Wednesday  - the 3/20-3/24 turn window could be important for gold.

Stocks – Our Option Premium Ratio dropped from 1.20 to 0.93 which is a SPX SELL SIGNAL and our TRIN-5 closed at 3.86 (< 4.0) which also is a SELL SIGNAL - we are cautious going into Thursday. 

Gold - Gold made a new ATH to $3065 overnight Wednesday and is pulling back into early Thursday. 

Silver – Silver touched $35 on Tuesday and started a 3-wave decline that may have ended Wednesday.

Bonds – Bonds rallied to 117'29 after the dovish Fed speak on Wednesday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is holding around $67 as tensions with Iran increase.

Dollar Index – The USD is holding at 103.60 after Fed Wednesday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 3/17, 3/19 and 3/21.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - March 18, 2025

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: After a two-day SPX rally into Monday that tested S760, the SPX declined in 3-waves into Tuesday with a chance of making lower lows into early Wednesday before the Fed minutes. Our indicators are calling this a SELLING CLIMAX in the SPX and we started scaling into stocks with strong relative strength against the SPX so far in 2025. The GDX/SPX and XLE/SPX has been very strong in 2025 so far, so we are using our cash horde to buy AG, CDE, HL, EXK, GOLD, KGC, SILJ, XOM, CVX and NEM here. We would typically buy QQQ, SPY and IWM here but the gold/silver and oil stocks will give us a bigger bang for the buck. In particular, we could see a big whoosh up in gold and silver stocks into late April. On a Fed week, the SPX typically tops on Monday and then corrects into the Fed minutes on Wednesday - further decline is possible into the 3/20-3/21 which is a high-energy turn window in the Bradley model. The Zweig Breadth Thrust needs to run up to 0.60 by 3/25 to reconfirm the bull market in stocks, but if this fails, being in gold/silver and oil stocks would be very defensive. Gold made a new ATH at $3047 and is giving us a sideways correction into Fed Wednesday. Our current positions have been updated to 25% cash, 30% gold/silver/oil stocks and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our trading account which remains at 25% cash, 25% SLV, 25% GLD, and 25% AG on Tuesday's close.

3/18/25 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX showed exhaustion signals last week similar to that seen in early Nov 2023 after a 10% correction. The SPX bottomed in the 3/13-3/14 Full Moon/lunar eclipse and reversed higher impulsively - we got 5-waves up to test 5769 before correcting in 3-waves on Tuesday. The Zweig Breath Thrust Indicator rallied to 0.53 from the 3/11 close at 0.40 and now has made a big leap towards the needed touch of 0.60 by 3/25. The Option Premium Ratio gave us an “island reversal pattern” on Friday’s close which was short-term bullish, but the big move down to 0.98 Monday actually was a short-term bearish signal. In a Fed week, the SPX(and gold) typically makes a high on Monday before a decline into the Fed minutes on Wednesday. Gold made a new ATH at $3047 on Tuesday and is correcting sideways into Fed Wednesday. Silver tested $35 on Tuesday before pulling back in 3-waves. We are scaling into gold/silver and oil stocks with 30% of our cash position.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The SPX gave us a 10% correction on the SPX but we got reversal signals on Friday and a rally into Monday - just a 3-wave correction into Fed Wednesday would be bullish.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold rallied to a new ATH at $3047 on Tuesday  - we are just correcting sideways into Fed Wednesday which is bullish.

Stocks – After a 10% SPX correction last week, our Option Premium Ratio gave us “an island reversal” buy signal on Friday’s close which gave us 5-waves up to 5760 on Monday before a 3-wave correction down on Tuesday. The Option Premium Ratio drop from 1.23 to 0.98 was a short-term bearish signal for Tuesday. 

Gold - Gold made a new ATH to $3047 on Tuesday and is now making a sideways correction into Fed Wednesday which is bullish. 

Silver – Silver touched $35 on Tuesday and started a 3-wave decline into overnight Tuesday.

Bonds – Bonds are holding at 117 ahead of Fed Wednesday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is down to $66.41 overnight Tuesday.

Dollar Index – The USD is holding at 103.48 ahead of Fed Wednesday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 3/17, 3/19 and 3/21.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - March 17, 2025

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX continued its retracement higher on Monday and the SPX exhaustion signals from last week project a move to SPX 5790-5900.  On a Fed week, the SPX typically tops on Monday and then corrects into the Fed minutes on Wednesday. The Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator made a big move from 0.47 to 0.53 as the NYSE breadth continues to expand - a run to 0.60 by 3/25 would reconfirm the bull market in stocks. Gold is making a new ATH at $3026.2 overnight and just a corrective pullback into Wednesday would be bullish. Our current positions average 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our trading account which remains at 25% cash, 25% SLV, 25% GLD, and 25% AG on Friday's close.

3/17/25 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX showed exhaustion signals last week similar to that seen in early Nov 2023 after a 10% correction. The SPX bottomed in the 3/13-3/14 Full Moon/lunar eclipse and reversed higher impulsively - a move to SPX 5790-5800 is possible into 3/21 which is a major turn date for the Bradley indicator. The Zweig Breath Thrust Indicator rallied to 0.53 from the 3/11 close at 0.40 and now has made a big leap towards the needed touch of 0.60 by 3/25. Our Option Premium Ratio gave us an “island reversal pattern” on Friday’s close which was short-term bullish and it made a big move down to 0.98 today which adds another bullish signal. In a Fed week, the SPX(and gold) typically makes a high on Monday before a decline into the Fed minutes on Wednesday. Gold is making a new ATH at $3026.2 on Friday – just a 3-wave pullback on its hourly chart into Wednesday’s Fed minutes would be bullish. Silver made a 3-wave correction to $33.96 early Monday before rallying up in 5-waves on the hourly chart which is bullish.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The SPX gave us a 10% correction on the SPX but we got reversal signals on Friday that argue for more rally into 3/21 that could test 5790-5800.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold rallied to a new ATH at $3026 overnight Monday -just a 3-wave decline into Fed Wednesday would be bullish.

Stocks – After a 10% SPX correction last week, our Option Premium Ratio gave us “an island reversal” buy signal on Friday’s close – this is a bullish signal. The drop today from 1.23 to 0.98 is another bullish signal.  We a looking for a move to SPX 5790-5800 by the 3/21 Bradley turn date.

Gold - Gold made a new ATH to $3026 overnight Monday – just a 3-wave correction into Fed Wednesday would be bullish. 

Silver – Silver tested an overhead supply zone from at $34.88 on Friday and then declined in just 3-waves to test $33.96 early Monday before rallying up in 5-waves – this is bullish.

Bonds – Bonds are holding at 117 overnight Monday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is holding at $67.74 overnight Monday.

Dollar Index – The USD is holding at 103.48 overnight Monday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 3/17, 3/19 and 3/21.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - March 16, 2025

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The US stock market doesn’t like the trade war that Trump has started – his polls show dissatisfaction across all demographics. However, after a 10% correction in the SPX into Thursday, the SPX rallied on worse-than-expected economic numbers on Friday and a larger retracement into next week looks likely. Even though the overall SPX volume was light on Friday, it was definitely shifted to the advancing side as the number of NYSE advancing issues swamped NYSE declining issues by a factor of 6 – this shows an oversold market. Our Option Premium Ratio, which printed a 12-month high at 1.67 on Thursday, gave us a 3-day pattern of 1.28, 1.67, 1.23 on Friday’s close which shows “an island reversal” pattern that is bullish for more SPX rally into next week. Gold made a new ATH at $3017 on Friday and then started a 3-wave correction into Sunday night. Our current positions average 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our trading account which remains at 25% cash, 25% SLV, 25% GLD, and 25% AG on Friday's close.

3/16/25 (Commentary for Sunday) The SPX showed its dissatisfaction with Trump’s trade war with Canada and China by giving us a quick 10% decline into last week that may be the first leg down in a volatile year. The Zweig Breath Thrust Indicator rallied to 0.47 from Thursday’s close at 0.40 and now has until 3/27 to reconfirm the bull market. Our Option Premium Ratio gave us an “island reversal pattern” going into Friday’s close which is short-term bullish going into the week ahead. In a Fed week, the SPX(and gold) typically makes a high on Monday before a decline into the Fed minutes on Wednesday. Gold made a new ATH at $3017 on Friday – just a 3-wave pullback on its hourly chart into Wednesday’s Fed minutes would be bullish. Silver rallied to $34.88 on Friday and tested its overhead “’supply zone” from late October 2024 before correcting into Sunday night.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The SPX gave us a 10% correction on the SPX but we got reversal signals on Friday that argue for more rally into 3/21.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold rallied to a new ATH at $3017 in the Full Moon/lunar eclipse Timing Window. Just a 3-wave decline into Fed Wednesday would be bullish.

Stocks – After a 10% SPX correction last week, our Option Premium Ratio gave us “an island reversal” buy signal on Friday’s close – this argues for more upside into next week.

Gold - Gold made a new ATH to $3017 on Friday’s Full Moon/lunar eclipse – just a 3-wave correction into Fed Wednesday would be bullish. 

Silver – Silver tested an overhead supply zone from at $34.88 and is pulling back into Monday – just a 3-wave correction into Fed Wednesday would be bullish.

Bonds – Bonds are holding at 117 overnight Sunday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is holding at $67.72 overnight Sunday.

Dollar Index – The USD is holding at 103.73 overnight Sunday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 3/17 and 3/19.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - March 13, 2025

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The ES ended its 3-wave correction from late Monday into Wednesday, the 21-day Fibonacci step out from the 2/29 high, and started the next impulse leg down overnight Wednesday. The Option Premium Ratio jumped from 1.28 to to 1.67 which is bearish. The statistics on lunar eclipses allows for another 1.75% decline in the SPX on Friday. The sideways correction from Monday to Wednesday may have been a 4th wave - if so, we may see a 3rd wave of 5 start into Friday.  Gold made a new ATH at $3005.6 overnight Thursday near the exact Full Moon/lunar eclipse. Our current positions average 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum. We have a 25% over-all allocation to our trading account which remains at 25% cash, 25% SLV, 25% GLD, and 25% AG on Thursday's close.

3/13/25 (Commentary for Thursday)  The ES ended its volatile sideways bounce from late Monday (4th wave?) on Wednesday and came down hard on Thursday to lower lows. A study on lunar eclipses found that the SPX declined an average of1.75% the day after the event. Our TRIN-5 indicator closed < 4.0 at 3.85 on Tuesday and that gave us a SELL SIGNAL on the SPX which is still valid. Our Option Premium Ratio gave us a yearly high at 1.67 on Thursday's close ( a 12-month high) shows that the bears are still in control. The Zweig Bread Thrust Indicator gave us a move down to 0.40 on Thursday's close - it would take a run up to 0.60 by 3/25 to reconfirm a bull market in stocks - we'll see. Silver is rallying to $34.65 overnight Thursday and appears to be on a run into the 3/14 Full Moon/lunar eclipse. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The ES started the next impulse leg down early Thursday. Some cycle theorists are arguing for a 5-year cycle low to hit around 3/23/25.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold rallied  to a new ATH into the exact New Moon and tagged $300 while silver touched $34.65.

Stocks – After a volatile 3-wave sideways correction from late Monday into late Wednesday, the ES started a new impulse leg down despite the cooler-than-expected PPI inflation report..

Gold - Gold rallied big Thursday and made a new ATH at $3005.5 near the exact Full Moon/lunar eclipse. 

Silver –  Silver rallied to tag $34.65 overnight Thursday and silver stocks are catching up.

Bonds – Bonds declined to 116 after the PPI report and started a rally that that tested 117'12.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is holding at $67.30 overnight Thursday and could rally on Friday.

Dollar Index – The USD is holding at 104.05 overnight Thursday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 3/10-3/11 and 3/13-3/14, the Full Moon/lunar eclipse.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - March 12, 2025

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The ES continued its oversold bounce from late Monday and higher highs are possible into early Thursday. However, the SPX trend remains down and we expect the next leg down to start by Friday's New Moon/lunar eclipse. Back to back readings of 1.01 on the Option Premium Ratio on Monday predicted a short-term rally and we have gotten a volatile, sideways market in the ES since Tuesday. The Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator made a lower high at 0.42 and our Option Premium Ratio indicator gave us just a small pullback to 1.28. Our short-term bias was for a 3-wave corrective SPX bounce into Wednesday, the 21-day Fibonacci step out from the ATH at 6147 on 2/19,  which should be followed soon by another impulse leg down into the 3/13-3/14 Full Moon/Lunar Eclipse Timing Window - - the CPI report came in cooler-than-expected this morning and now the focus falls to the PPI inflation report early Thursday. Gold tagged $2951 afterhours on Wednesday and could be trending higher into the 3/14 Full Moon/lunar eclipse. Our current positions average 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum. We have a 25% over-all allocation to our trading account which remains at 25% cash, 25% SLV, 25% GLD, and 25% AG on Wednesday's close.

3/12/25 (Commentary for Wednesday)  The ES is still working on a  EW 3-wave bounce from late Monday into late Wednesday - how the stock market reacts to the PPI inflation report early Thursday will set the market tone. After spiking to 29.57 on Wednesday,  VIX appears to have fallen in just an EW a-b-c correction into Wednesday - we believe that higher highs are likely above 30 by Friday. Our TRIN-5 indicator closed < 4.0 at 3.85 on Tuesday and that gave us a SELL SIGNAL on the SPX which is still valid. Our Option Premium Ratio gave us a yearly high at 1.37 on Tuesday's close and 1.28 on Wednesday's close which shows that the bears are still in control. The Zweig Bread Thrust Indicator gave us a move up to 0.42 - it would take a run up to 0.60 by 3/25 to reconfirm a bull market in stocks - we'll see. Silver is rallying to $33.84 overnight Wednesday and appears to be on a run into the 3/13-3/14 Full Moon/lunar eclipse. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The ES is rallying in a 3-wave corrective bounce from late Monday and could make higher highs into early Thursday before the next impulse leg down. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Silver is rallying to $33.85 overnight Wednesday and could be on a run to test recent highs into the 3/13-3/14 Full Moon/Lunar Eclipse turn window.

Stocks – The E-mini is giving us a volatile 3-wave sideways correction from late Monday into late Wednesday but the PPI report early Thursday will be a catalyst.

Gold - Gold is rallying overnight Wednesday and testing $2956 - a run up to test the ATH at $2974 is possible going into the 3/13-3/14 Full Moon/lunar eclipse.

Silver –  Silver is tagging $33.85 Wednesday night and silver stocks are leading the way higher.

Bonds – Bonds declined to 116'14 after the CPI report and may be close to finishing a 3-wave correction on the hourly chart.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is holding at $67.59 overnight Wednesday and may be on a run to the 3/14 Full Moon/lunar eclipse.

Dollar Index – The USD is holding at 103.53 overnight Wednesday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 3/10-3/11 and 3/13-3/14, the Full Moon/lunar eclipse.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - March 11, 2025

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The ES gave us a 3-wave oversold bounce from late Monday and it gave us a +100 pt SPX rally in the afternoon before closing down. However, the SPX trend remains down and we continue to make lower lows. Back to back readings of 1.01 on the Option Premium Ratio on Monday predicted a short-term rally and we may have gotten it today. The Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator made a lower low at 0.39 and the Option premium Ratio closed at a yearly high of 1.37. On Monday, our short-term bias was for a 3-wave corrective SPX bounce into Tuesday/Wednesday, the 21-day Fibonacci step out from the ATH at 6147 on 2/19,  which would be followed by another impulse leg down into the 3/13-3/14 Full Moon/Lunar Eclipse Timing Window - how the market reacts to the CPI inflation report early Wednesday will set the tone. Gold tested $2882 after hours on Monday before bouncing up Tuesday to tag $2928. Gold may have finished an EW a-b-c correction from its ATH at $2974. Our current positions average 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum. We have a 25% over-all allocation to our trading account which remained at 25% cash, 25% SLV, 25% GLD, and 25% AG on Tuesday's close.

3/11/25 (Commentary for Tuesday)  The SPX may have finished an EW 3-wave bounce from late Monday into late Tuesday and the next impulse leg down may have started - how the stock market reacts to the CPI inflation report early Wednesday will set the tone. The VIX made higher highs at 29.57 on Tuesday before closing lower. Our TRIN-5 indicator closed < 4.0 at 3.85 and that gives us a SELL SIGNAL on the SPX. Our Option Premium Ratio gave us a yearly high at 1.37 which shows that the bears are still in control. The Zweig Bread Thrust Indicator gave us a new low to 0.39 - it would take a run up to 0.60 by 3/25 to reconfirm a bull market in stocks. Silver rallied above $33.41 and appears ready to break out but gold did not confirm and that keeps us cautious ahead of the 3/13-3/14 Full Moon/lunar eclipse. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  During a 3-wave corrective bounce from late Monday, the SPX made a new low for the correction at 55.28 - we may have started the next impulse leg down before the close. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Silver made a higher high above $33.41 but gold did not confirm on the 3/11 turn window - this could be bearish divergence.

Stocks – The E-mini gave us a volatile 3-wave sideways correction from late Monday into late Tuesday but the next impulse leg down may have started. How the market reacts to the CPI report early Wednesday will be a catalyst.

Gold - Gold may have finished an EW a-b-c correction at $2882 late Monday before reversing up to $2929 on the 3/11 turn window.

Silver –  Silver took out $33.41 on 3/11 and may be breaking out but was not confirmed by gold.

Bonds – Bonds declined to 116'26 ahead of the CPI report.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is holding at $66.67 overnight Tuesday.

Dollar Index – The USD is bouncing to 103'67 overnight Tuesday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 3/10-3/11 and 3/13-3/14, the Full Moon/lunar eclipse.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - March 10, 2025

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Our bias was for a 3-wave corrective bounce to continue into early Monday in the SPX, but as the stock market maxim goes - "Markets do not bottom on a Friday". Monday gave us a hard-down day that confirmed a significant decline is underway from the SPX ATH at 6147 on 2/19. The SPX closed below its 200-dma and the Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator made a lower low at 0.40. The IWM closed below its 3-wave symmetry decline target and tagged 200.77. However, our Option Premium Ratio has now given us a back-to-back closing reading of 1.01 which is a short-term BUY SIGNAL for the SPX. Our short-term bias is for a 3-wave corrective SPX bounce into Tuesday/Wednesday, the 21-day Fibonacci step out from the ATH at 6147 on 2/19,  which should be followed by another impulse leg down into the 3/13-3/14 Full Moon/Lunar Eclipse Timing Window. Gold declined with the SPX into its 3/10-3/12 turn window and tested $2882 before bouncing overnight - gold is close to finishing an EW a-b-c correction from its ATH at $2974. Our current positions average 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum. We have a 25% over-all allocation to our trading account which remained at 25% cash, 25% SLV, 25% GLD, and 25% XOM on Monday's close.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 3/10-3/11 and 3/13-3/14, the Full Moon/lunar eclipse.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - March 9, 2025

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The weaker-than-expected NFP jobs report gave us an early selloff on Friday that was reversed higher into a positive day for the SPX - the SPX undercut its 200-dma and ended up closing above it. The 3-wave nature of the early decline in the SPX on Friday does make us suspicious of the rally from Friday but at least a hard down close on Friday was avoided. The IWM gave us an undercut low below Tuesday's low on Friday and tagged 201.73 which was a 3-wave symmetrical a-b-c from the ATH on 11/25 so far. The VIX made a weekly high at 26.56 but did close back within its upper Bollinger Band on the daily chart. The Option Premium Ratio remained elevated at 1.01 on Friday's close. The volume on Thursday did not feel like a capitulation, but the reversal up on Friday could extend into Monday 3/7-3/10 turn window. The Zweig Breadth Thrust model bounced back up to 0.44 on Friday - we must reach 0.61 by 3/18 to reconfirm the bull market in stocks. Gold continued to consolidate sideways on Friday and it has a turn window from 3/10-3/12 - we're not sure if this will be a high or low. Our current positions average 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum. We have a 25% over-all allocation to our trading account which remained at  50% cash, 50% SLV, 0% GLD, and 0% XOM on Friday's close.

3/09/25 (Commentary for Sunday)  After the NFP jobs report, the SPX gave us just a 3-wave decline to lows for the week before reversing higher into the close. Since the IWM hit a 3-wave symmetry target at 201.73 on Friday, out bias is for more rally into Monday's 3/10 turn window. We avoided a bearish close on Friday in the SPX, but the reversal has not been that convincing so far. Our Option Premium Ratio remained elevated at 1.01 on Friday but a move down to the 0.87 area on Monday's close would be a BUY SIGNAL. The Zweig Bread Thrust Indicator bounced back to 0.44 on Friday and that could improve even more on Monday if the IWM follows through to the upside. over and this looks short-term bearish. Silver declined in 5-waves on the hourly chart into Friday and that makes us cautious on the PM sector going into the 3/10-3/12 turn window for gold. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX made a lower low at 5666.29 on Friday but then reversed higher. The IWM hit a 3-wave symmetry target on the daily at 201.73 and that could give us more rally into Monday. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  From the annualized fractal expansion of the January 2025 trade in gold, gold is due a turn in the 3/10-3/12 turn window.

Stocks – After a 3-wave plunge in the SPX after the NFP jobs report, the SPX rallied into Friday's close. Since the IWM hit its symmetry target on Friday, we are expecting more rally into Monday

Gold - Gold may have finished a B-Wave test of $2941 early Friday and then reversed  down. Gold is due an important turn in the 3/10-3/12 turn window.

Silver –  Silver declined in an EW 5-waves from $33.40 into Friday - just a 3-wave bounce into Monday would be bearish.

Bonds – Bonds rallied in 5-waves into Friday and then declined in 3-waves - our bias is for lower US rates in the current "growth scare".

Crude Oil – Crude oil only gave us a 3-wave bounce into Friday which looks bearish.

Dollar Index – The USD tested 103.46 on Friday and bounced after a tough week.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 3/10-3/11 and 3/13-3/14, the Full Moon/lunar eclipse.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - March 6, 2025

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX broke down below Tuesday's low at SPX 5732 with a vengeance today. The 3-wave bounce from Tuesday's low was corrective and the SPX made a lower low today at 5711.64 before bouncing into the close. The VIX closed above its upper Bollinger Band on Thursday's close and the Option Premium Ratio rallied from 0.87 to 1.04 Which is bearish. How the market reacts to the NFP jobs report pre-market Friday will set the tone. The volume on Thursday did not feel  like a capitulation and "irrational index call buying" on the ISEE call/put ratio was seen on the close. If an initial SPX rally on Friday is reversed down impulsively, a hard close on Friday could lead to a Monday flush. The Zweig Breadth Thrust model reversed back down to 0.42 on Thursday and this looks short-term bearish. Gold acted weak today and only managed a 3-wave bounce to to test $2931 which looks short-term bearish going into the NFP jobs report. Our current positions average 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum. We have a 25% over-all allocation to our trading account which was updated to  50% cash, 50% SLV, 0% GLD, and 0% XOM on Thursday's close.

3/06/25 (Commentary for Thursday)  The SPX declined hard below Tuesday's low but the volume did not make it look like a "capitulation day". Our bias is that the SPX could make a low by 3/10, and another weak SPX close on Friday could lead to a "big flush" on Monday. Our Option Premium Ratio leapt from 0.87 to 1.04 and could test highs for the year which looks bearish. The Zweig Bread Thrust Indicator came back to 0.42 on Thursday and that looks bearish. Gold could only manage a 3-wave bounce to $2931 on Thursday before rolling over and this looks short-term bearish. Silver finished a DCL (daily cycle low) last Friday and looks stronger than gold and could test $34 soon. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX may have made an important low at 5732 Tuesday, but an undercut low is still possible going into the NFP jobs report . 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold looks weak going into the NFP jobs report on Friday - an important turn is due on 3/11 next week.

Stocks – The SPX only gave us a 3-wave rally from the 5732 low on Tuesday into the 5988 high late Wednesday and then we got a 5-wave impulse down into Thursday's low at 5711.64. 

Gold - Gold only gave us a 3-wave bounce to $2931 before rolling over into the close.  We are expecting an important turn on 3/11 next week.

Silver –  Silver tested $33.40 on Thursday before correcting overnight. Silver looks stronger than gold here.

Bonds – Bonds gave us 5-waves down on the hourly chart to 116'16 before bouncing. 

Crude Oil – Crude oil is consolidating sideways to $66.37 overnight Thursday.

Dollar Index – The USD tested 103.76 Thursday before bouncing.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 3/3 and 3/7, the NFP jobs report.