All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 7, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The NDX and SPX continued to roar higher as data about the Omicron variant is coming in more benign than feared. The Option Premium Ratio made an island-reversal high Monday (.97, 1.12, .81) and that is bullish for the SPX. The SPX and NDX made a low in the 12/3-12/6 New Moon Timing Window/Lunar Eclipse and that could propel the SPX and NDX to test highs by Friday. The key economic report for the week is the CPI report early Friday and a cooler than expected report could rally the SPX and NDX to make new all-time highs. Chairman Powell has raised inflation to his number one priority and the new FOMC committee appear receptive to the idea of a near-term tightening of monetary policy. Our bias is that the broad market may have peaked on 11/8 but the SPX and NDX are giving us a “broadening top formation” which could yield another set of new all-time highs in December. CEOs and other corporate insiders sold a record $69B of stock this year – an all-time record – another sign of a euphoric and topping market that is close to making a historic peak. We remain in 50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, new Covid variant, etc.) and now a more aggressive Fed that wants to rein in inflation. Crude oil appears to be giving us an EW a-b-c bounce that tested $73 on Tuesday. Bitcoin tested its R1 resistance pivot at 51808 before pulling back. Gold tested $1792 on Tuesday after making a low in the New Moon Timing Window. The USD tested the 96.61 high made after the start of Powell’s testimony last week on early Tuesday and then started to roll over into Tuesday evening.

12/07/21 (Commentary for Tuesday) The oversold SPX rally from 12/1 continued to extend today on benign news about the Omicron variant. The SPX should now consolidate into Friday’s CPI report which should be a market mover. A cooler than the consensus expectation of .6% could rally the SPX and NDX to new all-time highs. The big range days over the last two weeks in the NDX and SPX are indicative of a topping bull market – powerful geo-cosmic turning points from mid-December to 12/24 could top this stock market. Chairman Powell said that he will present a “more aggressive tapering plan” to the new FOMC at the December meeting despite back-to-back months of weaker than expected NFP job creation. When the Fed has drained liquidity from the financial markets via cuts in bond purchases, big moves down have started in the stock market since 2008. Bitcoin tested its R1 resistance pivot at 51808 Tuesday night before falling below its Person’s pivot at 51113. The trendlines from the Covid low on 3/23 turned back the last speculative highs in TSLA, Bitcoin, and the IWM near the 11/4 New Moon and taking out those barriers would be bullish. We still hold 50% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too great with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and a now more aggressive Fed targeting inflation. Another scary signal came from news that the down payments of 20% of first home buyers came from Bitcoin profits last week – the US economy is highly-levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies. Gold may have made a DCL (Daily Cycle Low) at $1762.2 Thursday afternoon and we did get to $1791 on Tuesday – but we need to see a rally above $1800 to be convincing. Crude oil bounced to test $73 on Tuesday, but the rally could be corrective. Bonds tested 164’12 on Friday before declining in an EW 5-waves down into Tuesday to test 161’23. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months but the Fed looks determined to quicken the withdrawal of financial liquidity from the US stock market at the December meeting despite slowing global growth concerns. The USD retested 96.61 early Tuesday before rolling over into the close.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) –The E-mini may have just finished an EW a-b-c correction near Friday’s close in the New Moon Window – the SPX could be rallying to retest the all-time high. The Russell 2000 and the NYSE Composite have already given us an EW 5-wave decline on the daily charts into 12/1 which is a bear market signal – the Russell 2000 may only have the potential to form a right-hand shoulder.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold may have finished a DCL (Daily Cycle Low) on Thursday and gave us a rally to $1791 on Tuesday. We need to see a bounce over $1800 to verify the DCL.

• Stocks – The SPX may have just finished an EW a-b-c correction into Friday, and we may started a new up leg to make new highs. The SPX could correct into Thursday in a shallow 4^th wave and a cooler than expected CPI report early Friday could make highs for the week.
• Gold –. Gold may have made a DCL (Daily Cycle low) Thursday afternoon but needs to rally above $1800 to convince us. An undercut low below $1758 would be bearish.
• Silver – Silver gave us an undercut low to $22.03 early Friday and has only given us a bounce to $22.60 on Tuesday so far.
• Bonds – Bonds declined in 5-waves from 164’12 on Monday to 161’23 on Tuesday – is this a short-term top?
• Crude Oil – Crude oil bounced to test $73 today but the rally looks corrective.
• Dollar Index –The USD retested 96.61 Tuesday before rolling over in a possible C-Wave down to test 95.58.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 12/3-12/6, the New Moon Timing Window.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 6, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The very oversold SPX bounced back on Monday but the E-mini looks like it is tracing out just an EW a-b-c from last Wednesday’s close. The Option Premium Ratio jumped to 1.12 - highs for the correction. The key economic report for the week is the CPI report early Friday. Chairman Powell has raised inflation to his number one priority and the new FOMC committee appear receptive to the idea of a near-term tightening of monetary policy. Our bias is that the broad market may have peaked on 11/8 but the SPX and NDX are giving us a “broadening top formation” which could give us another rally phase soon to build out a right-hand shoulder. CEOs and other corporate insiders sold a record $69B of stock this year – an all-time record – another sign of a euphoric and topping market that is close to making a historic peak. The SPX is getting hit with a one-two punch from the Omicron variant and a more aggressive Fed and is trading below some heavy Dark Pool prints on the SPY which is bearish. We remain in 50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, new Covid variant, etc.) and now a more aggressive Fed that wants to rein in inflation. Crude oil appears to be giving us an EW a-b-c bounce that is testing $70 Monday evening. Bitcoin bounced off its S2 support pivot at 48280 and is testing its R1 resistance pivot at 51562. Gold bounced to test $1786 on Monday after making a low in the New Moon Timing Window. The USD declined in 5-waves on the hourly chart before spiking higher to 96.61 after the start of Powell’s testimony – the action since 11/30 looks like a corrective consolidation.

12/06/21 (Commentary for Monday) The oversold E-mini rebounded from 12/1 but the pattern looks corrective so far. The big range days over the last two weeks in the NDX and SPX are indicative of a topping bull market – the one-two punch of the Omicron variant and a hawkish Fed could topple the SPX and NDX over into a bear market after the broad market topped with the Russell 2000 on 11/8. Chairman Powell said that he will present a “more aggressive tapering plan” to the new FOMC at the December meeting but the much weaker than expected NFP jobs number may complicate that. When the Fed has drained liquidity from the financial markets via cuts in bond purchases, big moves down have started in the stock market since 2008. Led by MARA, Bitcoin rebounded strong to test its R1 resistance pivot at 51540 Monday night. The trendlines from the Covid low on 3/23 turned back the last speculative highs in TSLA, Bitcoin, and the IWM near the 11/4 New Moon and then the NYSE Composite gave us an EW 5-waves down on the daily chart into 12/1. We still hold 50% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too great with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and a now more aggressive Fed targeting inflation. Another scary signal came from news that the down payments of 20% of first home buyers came from Bitcoin profits last week – the US economy is highly-levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies. Gold and the GDX traded down into Friday’s NFP jobs report and the New Moon Timing Window – gold may have made a DCL (Daily Cycle Low) at $1762.2 Thursday afternoon – but needs to see a rally above $1800 to be convincing. Crude oil traced out another undercut low at $62.43 before the New Moon and bounced correctively to test $70 on Monday. Bonds sub-divided higher to test 164’12 Friday before correcting on Monday. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months but the Fed looks determined to quicken the withdrawal of financial liquidity from the US stock market at the December meeting despite slowing global growth concerns. The USD declined in 5-waves on the hourly chart going into Powell’s testimony but did get a spike higher to 96.61 which is getting corrected into Monday night.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) –The E-mini gave us an EW 5-waves down into the 12/1 close and appears to be giving us an EW a-b-c bounce into Monday evening.  The Russell 2000 and the NYSE Composite have already given us an EW 5-wave decline on the daily charts into 12/1 which is a bear market signal – the Russell 2000 bounced correctively into Monday night.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold may have finished a DCL (Daily Cycle Low) on Thursday but has only given us a weak bounce to $1786 on Monday. W e need to see a bounce over $1800 to verify the DCL.

• Stocks – After 5-waves down into the 12/1 close, the E-mini is giving us just a sideways EW a-b-c into Monday night which looks bearish.
• Gold – Gold may have made a DCL (Daily Cycle low) Thursday afternoon but needs to rally above $1800 to convince us. An undercut low below $1758 would be bearish.
• Silver – Silver gave us an undercut low to $22.03 early Friday and only gave us a weak bounce after the New Moon Timing Window.
• Bonds – Bonds pulled back correctively from 164’12 on Monday.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $62.43 early Thursday before the New Moon and then bounced correctively to test $70 on Monday.
• Dollar Index –The USD declined in 5-waves on the hourly chart into Chairman Powell’s statement and then briefly spiked to 96.64 on Tuesday before correcting into Monday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 12/3-12/6, the New Moon Timing Window.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - December 5, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX and NDX are reeling from the 1-2 punch of news of the Omicron variant and Chairman Powell’s more hawkish take on the Fed’s financial taper. The much weaker than expected NFP jobs report underlies the risk that the US economy was weaker than expected even before the Omicron variant was announced and the weak Black Friday sales could augur a weak retail holiday season. The weaker than expected NFP jobs number may not stay the hand of Chairman Powell who has raised inflation to his number one priority. The stock market saw almost panic selling last week and we could be close to a trading low early Monday.  The Russell 2000 and DJIA peaked on 11/8 and saw heaving selling and the SPX and NDX saw an all-time high on 11/22 and then gave us heaving selling. Our bias is that the broad market may have peaked on 11/8 but the SPX and NDX are giving us a “broadening top formation” which could give us another rally phase soon to build out a right-hand shoulder. CEOs and other corporate insiders sold a record $69B of stock this year – an all-time record – another sign of a euphoric and topping market that is close to making a historic peak. The SPX is getting hit with a one-two punch from the Omicron variant and a more aggressive Fed and are trading below some heavy Dark Pool prints on the SPY which is bearish. We are seeing a rebound in the SPX Sunday night in the 12/3-12/6 New Moon Timing Window and the 13-day Fibonacci step out from the 11/22 all-time high – a weaker than expected NFP jobs number will set the SPX tone at the open. Both the NYA (NYSE Composite) and the IWM finished an EW 5-wave decline on the daily chart on heavy volume days Tuesday and Wednesday – we are only getting a corrective-looking bounce Sunday night. We remain in 50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, new Covid variant, etc.) and now a more aggressive Fed that wants to rein in inflation. Crude oil gave us an undercut low at $62.43 and is bouncing into Sunday night. Bitcoin is testing its S2 support pivot at 48280 and appears to be leading the stock market down. Gold is rebounding into Sunday night but the bounce does not look impressive so far. The USD declined in 5-waves on the hourly chart before spiking higher to 96.61 after the start of Powell’s testimony – the action since late Tuesday looks like a corrective consolidation.

12/05/21 (Commentary for Sunday) The NFP jobs report on Friday came in much weaker than expected and questions remain about the US economy as we head into the holiday season. The big range days over the last two weeks in the NDX and SPX are indicative of a topping bull market – the one-two punch of the Omicron variant and a hawkish Fed could topple the SPX and NDX over into a bear market after the broad market topped with the Russell 2000 on 11/8. The swing of the Fed’s focus to target inflation over further employment gains hit the markets hard last week and the E-mini tested lows for the week on Friday’s close before bouncing on Sunday night. Chairman Powell said that he will present a “more aggressive tapering plan” to the new FOMC at the December meeting but the much weaker than expected NFP jobs number may complicate that. When the Fed has drained liquidity from the financial markets via cuts in bond purchases, big moves down have started in the stock market since 2008. Bitcoin has been leading the stock market down recently and its plunge below 49000 Sunday night is bearish for the stock market after the 12/3-12/6 New Moon Timing Window. The trendlines from the Covid low on 3/23 turned back the last speculative highs in TSLA, Bitcoin, and the IWM near the 11/4 New Moon and then the NYSE Composite gave us an EW 5-waves down on the daily chart into Tuesday – this has bearish implications for the stock market after the retracement rally into the New Moon weekend. We still hold 50% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too great with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and a now more aggressive Fed targeting inflation. Another scary signal came from news that the down payments of 20% of first home buyers came from Bitcoin profits last week – the US economy is highly-levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies. Gold and the GDX traded down into Friday’s NFP jobs report and the New Moon Timing Window – gold may have made a DCL (Daily Cycle Low) at $1762.2 Thursday afternoon – but needs to see a rally above $1800 to be convincing. Crude oil traced out another undercut low at $62.43 and is bouncing into Sunday night. Bonds continued to sub-divide higher to test 164’12 Friday despite the hawkish tone taken by Chairman Powell on inflation. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months but the Fed looks determined to quicken the withdrawal of financial liquidity from the US stock market at the December meeting despite slowing global growth concerns. The USD declined in 5-waves on the hourly chart going into Powell’s testimony but did get a spike higher to 96.61 which is getting corrected into Sunday night.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) –The E-mini gave us an EW 5-waves down into Wednesday’s close and appears to be giving us an EW a-b-c bounce into Sunday night.  The Russell 2000 and the NYSE Composite have already given us an EW 5-wave decline on the daily charts into Tuesday which is a bear market signal – the Russell 2000 is bouncing correctively into Sunday night.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold and the GDX are trending down into Friday’s NFP jobs report – a break below $1758 gold will be very bearish in our work. Gold may have finished a DCL (Daily Cycle Low) on Thursday but has only given us  a weak bounce into Sunday night so far.

• Stocks – After 5-waves down into Wednesday’s close, the E-mini is giving us just a sideways EW a-b-c into Sunday night which looks bearish.
• Gold – Gold may have made a DCL (Daily Cycle low) Thursday afternoon but needs to rally above $1800 to convince us. An undercut low below $1758 would be bearish.
• Silver – Silver gave us an undercut low to $22.03 early Friday and is bouncing into Sunday night.
• Bonds – Bonds continued to sub-divide up on Friday despite the hawkish tone from Chairman Powell.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $62.43 early Thursday and is bouncing into the weekend New Moon.
• Dollar Index –The USD declined in 5-waves on the hourly chart into Chairman Powell’s statement and then briefly spiked to 96.64 on Tuesday before correcting into Sunday night.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 12/3-12/6, the New Moon Timing Window.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 2, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX finished 5-waves down on the hourly chart into Wednesday’s close and started an EW a-b-c correction into the 12/3-12/6 New Moon Timing Window that includes a solar eclipse. The NFP jobs report pre-market Friday will set the tone for the open. A weaker than expected jobs number may give the market hope of a less hawkish Fed at the December FOMC meeting. The Russell 2000 also gave us 5-waves down on the hourly chart into Wednesday’s close and started a 3-wave correction into the weekend New Moon. CEOs and other corporate insiders sold a record $69B of stock this year – an all-time record – another sign of a euphoric and topping market that is close to making a historic peak. The Fed made inflation its number one target early Tuesday and Powell hinted that a more aggressive taper would be discussed at the December Fed meeting. So essentially, the SPX is getting hit with a one-two punch from the Omicron variant and a more aggressive Fed and are trading below some heavy Dark Pool prints on the SPY which is bearish. We are seeing a corrective rebound in the NDX and SPX into the 12/3 NFP jobs report which is in the 12/3-12/6 New Moon Timing Window – a weaker than expected NFP jobs number will set the SPX tone at the open. Both the NYA (NYSE Composite) and the IWM finished an EW 5-wave decline on the daily chart on heavy volume days Tuesday and Wednesday – we only expect a retracement bounce into the weekend New Moon. We remain in 50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, new Covid variant, etc.) and now a more aggressive Fed that wants to rein in inflation. Crude oil gave us an undercut low at $62.43 and should also rebound into the New Moon. The GDX is leading the stock market down here – the PM sector tends to trend down into Friday’s NFP jobs report. The USD declined in 5-waves on the hourly chart before spiking higher to 96.61 after the start of Powell’s testimony.

12/01/21 (Commentary for Wednesday) The big range days over the last two weeks in the NDX and SPX are indicative of a BULL MARKET TOP – the one-two punch of the Omicron variant and a hawkish Fed could topple the SPX and NDX over into a bear market after the broad market topped with the Russell 2000 on 11/8. The swing of the Fed’s focus to target inflation over further employment gains hit and the potential economic fallout from the Omicron variant hit the SPX hard into Wednesday’s close and then started an EW a-b-c bounce into the 12/3-12/6 New Moon Timing Window – the NFP jobs report will set the market tone at Friday’s open. Chairman Powell said that he will present a “more aggressive tapering plan” to the new FOMC at the December meeting but a weaker than expected NFP jobs number may complicate that. When the Fed has drained liquidity from the financial markets via cuts in bond purchases, big moves down have started in the stock market since 2008. Bitcoin is also tracing out an EW a-b-c bounce into the weekend New Moon and this looks bearish for the stock market after the 12/3-12/6 New Moon Timing Window. The trendlines from the Covid low on 3/23 turned back the last speculative highs in TSLA, Bitcoin, and the IWM near the 11/4 New Moon and then the NYSE Composite gave us an EW 5-waves down on the daily chart into Tuesday – this has bearish implications for the stock market after a retracement rally into the New Moon weekend. We still hold 50% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too great with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and a now more aggressive Fed targeting inflation. Another scary signal came from news that the down payments of 20% of first home buyers came from Bitcoin profits last week – the US economy is highly-levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies. Gold and the GDX are trending down into Friday’s NFP jobs report and the New Moon Timing Window – gold may have made a DCL (Daily Cycle Low) today. Crude oil traced out another undercut low at $62.43 and also looks to bounce into the weekend New Moon. Bonds continued to sub-divide higher despite the hawkish tone taken by Chairman Powell on inflation. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months but the Fed looks determined to quicken the withdrawal of financial liquidity from the US stock market at the December meeting despite slowing global growth concerns. The USD declined in 5-waves on the hourly chart going into Powell’s testimony but did get a spike higher to 96.61 which is getting corrected into Thursday.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX gave us an EW 5-waves down into Wednesday’s close and is bouncing into the weekend New Moon.  The Russell 2000 and the NYSE Composite have already given us an EW 5-wave decline on the daily charts into Tuesday which is a bear market signal. A SPX corrective rebound rally into Friday/Monday should be shorted.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold and the GDX are trending down into Friday’s NFP jobs report – a break below $1758 gold will be very bearish in our work. Gold may have finished a DCL (Daily Cycle Low) on Thursday.

• Stocks – After 5-waves down into Wednesday’s close, the SPX is rebounding into Friday’s NFP jobs report and weekend New Moon. Just a corrective bounce in the SPX and the NDX into Friday/Monday should be shorted for another leg down.
• Gold – Gold continues to trend down into Friday’s NFP jobs report. Gold may have made a DCL (Daily Cycle low) today. An undercut low below $1758 would be bearish.
• Silver – Silver tested $22.18 on Thursday but could give us an undercut low into early Friday. 
• Bonds – Bonds continued to sub-divide up Thursday despite the hawkish tone from Chairman Powell.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $62.43 early Thursday and is trying to bounce into the weekend New Moon.
• Dollar Index –The USD declined in 5-waves on the hourly chart into Chairman Powell’s statement and then briefly spiked to 96.64 on Tuesday before correcting into Thursday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 12/3-12/6, the New Moon Timing Window.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 1, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: After the Tuesday $TRIN closed > 2.0, the SPX opened strong and ran up 85 points before the news of the first Omicron case was confirmed in California and then the SPX fell to lows for the week – this is bear market action! The Russell 2000 made an all-time high on 11/8 and then declined in 5-waves down on the daily chart into Tuesday and then continued to decline down to lower lows today – did the broad market roll over into a bear market ahead of the all-time highs in the SPX and NDX last week? CEOs and other corporate insiders sold a record $69B of stock this year – an all-time record. The Fed intends to make inflation its number one target and Powell hinted that a more aggressive taper would be discussed at the December Fed meeting. So essentially, the SPX is getting hit with a one-two punch from the Omicron variant and a more aggressive Fed today and are trading below some heavy Dark Pool sell prints on the SPY. We should see a rebound attempt from the NDX and SPX into the 12/3 NFP jobs report which is in the 12/3-12/6 New Moon Timing Window – but if the rally is corrective watch out below. Both the NYA (NYSE Composite) and the IWM finished an EW 5-wave decline on the daily chart on heavy volume days Tuesday – we only expect a retracement bounce into the weekend New Moon. The ADP report early Wednesday and the NFP jobs report early Friday will be key reports for this week – weaker than expected reports could cause more market angst. We remain in 50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, new Covid variant, etc.) and now a more aggressive Fed that wants to rein in inflation. Crude oil is rolling over and is testing $64.43 – a breakdown in crude oil would be a deflationary signal. The GDX is leading the stock market down here – the PM sector tends to trend down into Friday’s NFP jobs report. The USD declined in 5-waves on the hourly chart before spiking higher to 96.61 after the start of Powell’s testimony.

12/01/21 (Commentary for Wednesday) The big range days over the last two weeks in the NDX and SPX is indicative of a BULL MARKET TOP – the one-two punch of the Omicron variant and a hawkish Fed is toppling the SPX and NDX over into a bear market after the broad market topped with the Russell 2000 on 11/8. The swing of the Fed’s focus to target inflation over further employment gains hit and the potential economic fallout from the Omicron variant hit the SPX hard on Wednesday. Chairman Powell said that he will present a “more aggressive tapering plan” to the new FOMC at the December meeting. When the Fed has drained liquidity from the financial markets via cuts in bond purchases, big moves down have started in the stock market since 2008. Once again, the SPX gave us a strong opening rally that fizzled – this is bear market action. Bitcoin is falling back into its down channel from 11/8 and this looks bearish for the stock market. The trendlines from the Covid low on 3/23 turned back the last speculative highs in TSLA, Bitcoin, and the IWM near the 11/4 New Moon and then the NYSE Composite gave us an EW 5-waves down on the daily chart into Tuesday – this has bearish implications for the stock market after a retracement rally into the New Moon weekend. We still hold 50% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too great with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and a now more aggressive Fed targeting inflation. Another scary signal came from news that the down payments of 20% of first home buyers came from Bitcoin profits last week – the US economy is highly-levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies. Gold and the GDX are trending down into Friday’s NFP jobs report. Crude oil rolled over again today to test $64.43 which is a deflationary signal. Bonds rallied in 5-waves into Wednesday despite the hawkish tone taken by Chairman Powell on inflation. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months but the Fed looks determined to quicken the withdrawal of financial liquidity from the US stock market at the December meeting despite slowing global growth concerns. The USD declined in 5-waves on the hourly chart going into Powell’s testimony but did get a spike higher to 96.61 which petered out  into the close.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) –The SPX is sub-dividing down in an aggressive manner and  the Russell 2000 and the NYSE Composite have already given us an EW 5-wave decline on the daily chart into Tuesday which is a bear market signal. A corrective rebound rally into Friday/Monday should be shorted.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold and the GDX are trending down into Friday’s NFP jobs report – a break below $1758 gold will be very bearish in our work.

• Stocks – The Russell 2000 and the NYSE Composite have already entered bear market territory with an EW 5-waves down on the daily chart, but now the SPX and NDX sub-dividing down aggressively. Just a corrective bounce in the SPX and the NDX into Friday/Monday should be shorted.
• Gold – Gold continues to trend down into Friday’s NFP jobs report. An undercut low below $1758 would be bearish.
• Silver – Silver took out $22.65 on Wednesday and looks lower. 
• Bonds – Bonds continued to rally on Wednesday despite the hawkish tone from Chairman Powell.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil is rolling over and threatening to test $64.43 on Wednesday – the Dark Pool has been selling the oil stocks.
• Dollar Index –The USD declined in 5-waves on the hourly chart into Chairman Powell’s statement and then briefly spiked to 96.64 on Tuesday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 12/3-12/6, the New Moon Timing Window.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 30, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Late Monday evening, just after we posted our blog, news leaked from Powell’s prepared statement for Tuesday morning that the Fed’s main focus is now on fighting inflation. The E-mini started to sharply rollover around 11:00 PM and turned a potentially bullish pattern into a bearish one. The Fed intends to make inflation its number one target and Powell hinted that a more aggressive taper would be discussed at the December Fed meeting. So essentially, the SPX got hit with a one-two punch from the Covid-omicron and a more aggressive Fed today and we got a screaming sell off.  The $TRIN closed > 2 which is a buy signal for early Wednesday and the Option Premium Ratio dropped from .88 to .72 which is also a buy signal. We should see a rebound attempt from the NDX and SPX into the 12/3 NFP jobs report which is in the 12/3-12/6 New Moon Timing Window. Both the NYA (NYSE Composite) and the IWM finished an EW 5-wave decline on the daily chart on heavy volume days today – we could see a retracement bounce into the weekend New Moon. The SPX may have finished just a 3-wave correction on Tuesday and looks poised to test highs into the 12/3-12/6 New Moon Timing Window. The ADP report early Wednesday and the NFP jobs report early Friday will be key reports for this week. We remain in 50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, new Covid variant, etc.) and now a more aggressive Fed that wants to rein in inflation. Crude oil was hit by the Fed’s more aggressive stance on inflation but may have finished just a 3-wave correction to test $64.43 today. Gold started the session with a 4^th wave bounce above $1800 but reversed down sharply when Powell started his hawkish testimony. The USD declined in 5-waves on the hourly chart before spiking higher to 96.61 after the start of Powell’s testimony.

11/30/21 (Commentary for Tuesday) Leaked info from Powell’s statement caused the E-mini to roll over last night. The swing of the Fed’s focus to target inflation over further employment gains hit the SPX hard on Tuesday. However, the $TRIN closed > 2.0 and that argues for a bullish day on Wednesday. Chairman Powell said that he will present a “more aggressive tapering plan” to the new FOMC at the December meeting. The SPX traced out a 3-wave correction into Tuesday  and should give us at least a strong open early Wednesday – a failed rally into Wednesday’s close would be very bearish. Bitcoin held up better than the SPX on Tuesday – and this should be encouraging to the stock market bulls. Still, the trendlines from the Covid low on 3/23 turned back the last speculative highs in TSLA, Bitcoin, and the IWM near the 11/4 New Moon and then the broad market (NYSE Composite) gave us an EW 5-waves down on the daily chart into Tuesday – this has bearish implications for the stock market after a retracement rally into the weekend. We still hold 50% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too great with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and a now more aggressive Fed targeting inflation. Another scary signal came from news that the down payments of 20% of first home buyers came from Bitcoin profits last week – the US economy is highly-levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies. Gold gave us a 4^th wave bounce early Tuesday but its price reversed down sharply to $1771 after Powell’s hawkish tone. Crude oil fell to $64.43 before bouncing over Person’s pivot Tuesday night at $67.54. Bonds rallied on Tuesday despite the hawkish tone taken by Chairman Powell on inflation. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months but the Fed looks determined to quicken the withdrawal of financial liquidity from the US stock market at the December meeting despite slowing global growth concerns. The USD declined in 5-waves on the hourly chart going into Powell’s testimony but did get a spike higher to 96.61 which petered out  into the close.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) –The SPX may have finished a 3-wave correction from 11/15 on Tuesday, but the Russell 2000 and the NYSE Composite gave us an EW 5-wave decline into Tuesday which is bearish after a potential retracement rally into the weekend.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold gave us a 4^th wave bounce to $1811 early Tuesday before Chairman Powell’s hawkish testimony reversed gold down to test multi-week lows at $1771 – a break below $1758 will be very bearish in our work.

• Stocks – The SPY and the QQQ may have ended a 3-wave correction into Friday – we are inclined to buy early weakness in the SPY on Tuesday morning.
• Gold – Gold gave us a 4^th wave bounce to $1811 before being slammed down in a 5^th wave after Powell’s hawkish statement. An undercut low below $1758 would be bearish.
• Silver – Silver took out last week’s low below $23 and tested $22.65 on Tuesday.  
• Bonds – Bonds ended Tuesday in a rally despite the hawkish tone from Chairman Powell.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil may have finished an EW a-b-c correction at $64.43 and we may see a bounce on Wednesday.
• Dollar Index –The USD declined in 5-waves on the hourly chart into Chairman Powell’s statement and then briefly spiked to 96.64.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 12/3-12/6, the New Moon Timing Window.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 29, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX and NDX roared back to life early Monday as investors saw Friday’s Covid selloff as a buying opportunity. The “no shutdown” comment from President Biden helped spark a rally today. The QQQ gave us a “positive volume reversal day” which is bullish and the Option Premium Ratio gave us a higher high over Friday (.49, .65, .82, .83, .88) and is building a bullish “wall of worry”.  The SPX may have finished a 3-wave correction into Friday and looks poised to test highs into the 12/3-12/6 New Moon Timing Window. The ADP report early Wednesday and the NFP jobs report early Friday will be key reports for this week. Our bias is to buy SPY weakness early Tuesday for a run to test highs into the weekend New Moon. We remain in 50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, new Covid variant, etc.) and the euphoric retail option speculation going on in US markets which looks terminal. Crude oil gave us a bullish 5-waves higher from Friday’s low and appears to be coiling for a run higher into the 12/3-12/5 New Moon Timing Window. Bitcoin rallied in 5-waves on the hourly chart and could also be coiling for a run into the weekend New Moon. Gold stayed in correction mode today and has a monthly tendency to decline into Friday’s NFP jobs report. The USD made a new high for the year at 96.94 last week and gave us a correction into Monday.

11/29/21 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX may have ended a quick EW a-b-c correction on Friday after the announcement of the new Covid variant. We are looking to buy dips early Tuesday in the SPY for a run to test highs into the 12/3-12/6 New Moon Timing Window. The Option Premium Ratio continues to build a wall of worry after Monday’s rally day which is bullish and the QQQ gave us a Positive Volume Reversal Day on Monday which is bullish. The stock market has become resilient after a series of Covid variants and especially after President Biden stated “no shutdowns” on Monday. The SPX traced out a bullish pattern on Monday and appears to be coiling for a run to test highs into the weekend New Moon. Bitcoin bounced on Monday and may be coiling for a run into the weekend New Moon – a failed rally this week, however, will have bearish implications for the broad market. The trendlines from the Covid low on 3/23 turned back the last speculative highs in TSLA, Bitcoin, and the IWM on the 11/8 Full Moon and then the broad market (NYSE Composite) went into correction mode. We still hold 50% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too great with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and the wildly-euphoric retail trade volume in call options. Another scary signal came from news that the down payments of 20% of first home buyers came from Bitcoin profits last week – the US economy is highly-levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies. Gold gave us lower lows today and appears to be consolidating into Friday’s NFP jobs report which is near the 12/4 New Moon. Crude oil rallied in 5-waves from Friday’s low at $67.40 and is coiling for a run into the weekend New Moon. Bonds rallied on Friday’s session as global growth estimates got paired back and is rallying overnight Monday to test Friday’s high. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months but renewed global growth fears could impact the Fed’s decision on the rate of tapering at the December meeting – the earlier December PPI and CPI inflation reports will be key. The USD rallied to new highs for the year at 96.94 last week and then corrected into overnight Monday.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) –The NDX and SPX may have finished a 3-wave correction from 11/15 on Friday. The SPX may be coiling for a run into the 12/3-12/6 New Moon Timing Window.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold trended lower from 11/15 at $1879 into $1777 on 11/24 but only gave us a 3-wave corrective bounce into Friday – a break below $1758 will be very bearish in our work.

• Stocks – The SPY and the QQQ may have ended a 3-wave correction into Friday – we are inclined to buy early weakness in the SPY on Tuesday morning.
• Gold – Gold only gave us a 3-wave bounce from its 11/23 turn window into Friday so an undercut low into Friday’s NFP jobs report is possible. An undercut low below $1758 would be bearish.
• Silver – Silver took out last week’s low below $23.  
• Bonds – Bonds railed in 5-waves from early Wednesday to Friday’s close and just did a quick correction early Monday.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil rallied in 5-waves from Friday’s low and appears to be coiling for a run into the weekend New Moon.
• Dollar Index –The USD made new highs for the year last week at 96.94 and then has corrected into overnight Monday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 12/3-12/5, the New Moon Timing Window.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - November 28, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: As we suspected, the SPX rally into late Wednesday was just a B-Wave of a correction that started after the reappointment of Chairman Powell on 11/15. The close of the VIX over its upper Bollinger Band on Tuesday and the spike in the Option Premium Ratio to .82 on Wednesday did warn us of potential selling on the normally bullish Friday after the Thanksgiving Day holiday. Financial astrologer, Tim Bost, did warn that the planetary opposition of the Sun to the Transneptunian planet, Admetos, could be “very contractionary” for the stock market on Friday. The South African announcement of a new Covid variant, Omicron,  hit the global markets like a ton of bricks on Friday – but what now? At a minimum, we should expect more selling early Monday as many who were not able to participate in Friday’s market action are heard. Tom Lee on CNBC mentioned on Wednesday night that the down payments of 20% of first home purchases were paid for by Bitcoin profits – this is a scary indictment of how fragile the US economy is and how dependent it is on widespread speculation. We remain in 50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, new Covid variant, etc.) and the euphoric retail option speculation going on in US markets. Crude energy prices took a hit on Friday on renewed global growth fears but natural gas prices spiked to multiple week highs on the cold temperatures greeting holiday travelers. Bitcoin remains entrenched in its down channel and tested 53600 early Friday. Gold only gave us a corrective bounce from its important turn day on 11/23 and closed weak on Friday – an undercut low below $1777 is possible Sunday night/early Monday . The USD made a new high for the year at 96.94 last Wednesday and gave us a correction into Friday’s close.

11/28/21 (Commentary for Sunday) After a B-Wave bounce into Wednesday’s close, the  SPX and NDX continued their corrective action on Friday by plunging in a C-Wave down after the announcement of a new Covid variant hit the tape Thursday night. We saw warning signs in the price action of the VIX and the spike in our Option Premium Ratio to .82 on Wednesday’s close but we did not add any hedges. Financial astrologer Tim Bost warned of a powerful opposition of the Sun to the Transneptunian planet, Admetos, on Wednesday that could cause a big stock market contraction like Saturn on steroids. For early Monday, we expect more selling in the SPX as those on holiday on Friday get to react to the news of the new Covid variant, Omicron. Just a corrective bounce from early SPX weakness on Monday will be bearish for steeper decline. The Tuesday after a monthly option expiration last week is a turn window in our work, but all we got was a bounce in the SPX, NDX and IWM into Wednesday. Bitcoin remained entrenched in its down channel on Friday and made a lower low at 53600. The trendlines from the Covid low on 3/23 turned back the last speculative highs in TSLA, Bitcoin, and the IWM on the 11/8 Full Moon and then the broad market (NYSE Composite) went into correction mode. We still hold 50% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too great with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and the wildly-euphoric retail trade volume in call options. Another scary signal came from news that the down payments of 20% of first home buyers came from Bitcoin profits last week – the US economy is highly-levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies. Gold only gave us a 3-wave corrective bounce from its 11/23 turn window into Friday and then gave us a weak close that could undercut its $1777 low on Sunday night or early Monday. How the PM sector trades on Monday will be key. Crude oil got hit Friday on the renewed Covid threat to global growth but natural gas finished Friday at multi-week highs. Bonds rallied on Friday’s session as global growth estimates got paired back. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months but renewed global growth fears could impact the Fed’s decision on the rate of tapering at the December meeting – the earlier December PPI and CPI inflation reports will be key. The USD rallied to new highs for the year at 96.94 and then sold off into Friday’s close.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) –The NDX and SPX finished an EW 5-wave advance on the daily chart on 11/15 and started a correction that continued into with a bang into Friday. The Tuesday after a monthly option expiration on 11/23 was a turn window in our work but the SPX, NDX and IWM all made just a B-Wave bounce into Wednesday’s close that forecasted the C-Wave down on Friday.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold trended lower from 11/15 at $1879 into $1777 on Wednesday but only gave us a 3-wave corrective bounce into Friday – a break below $1758 will be very bearish in our work.

• Stocks – The SPY and the QQQ both ended a B-Wave bounce into Wednesday’s close that led to a sharp C-Wave down on Friday – we expect early selling on Monday’s open. Just a corrective rally attempt in the SPX before noon will be bearish for lower prices.
• Gold – Gold only gave us a 3-wave bounce from its 11/23 turn window into Friday so an undercut low into Monday is possible.
• Silver – Silver made a weekly low on Friday but gold did not for a case of bullish divergence for gold.  
• Bonds – Bonds railed in 5-waves from early Wednesday to Friday’s close.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil got hit hard on Friday’s global growth fears but natural gas closed at multi-week highs above $5.50.
• Dollar Index –The USD made a new highs for the year today at 96.94 – the recent rise in the USD has pressured both gold and Bitcoin down.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 11/29.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 24, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX and NDX peaked near the announcement of Chairman Powell’s reappointment early Monday and started a correction that continued into Wednesday – today’s rally may have been part of a B-Wave bounce that could run into Friday’s shortened session before rolling over in a C-Wave down into next week. Tom Lee on CNBC mentioned that the down payments of 20% of first home purchases were paid for by Bitcoin profits – this is a scary indictment of how fragile the US economy is and how dependent it is to widespread speculation. We remain in 50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, etc.) and the euphoric retail option trading going on in US markets. On a macro level, our bias is that accelerating energy inflation (crude oil and natural gas) will continue until the early December CPI report and that will pressure Powell and the FOMC to rethink their interest rate policy moves sooner than later – this could put an end to the stock bull market before year end. Despite Biden’s best efforts, crude oil tested $79 overnight Tuesday and remained elevated today. Bitcoin, the best inflation hedge of the year by far, appears to be entrenched in a down channel, but will it get a 2017-style pop after Thanksgiving Day from millennials educating parents about their Bitcoin wealth. Gold continued its correction from $1879 last week and spiked down to test its S1 support pivot at$1777 on Wednesday before rebounding. The USD made new highs for the year at 96.94 on Wednesday as the 10-yr US rate ran up to 1.69%.

11/24/21 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX and NDX continued their corrective action and today’s rally appeared to be a B-wave higher of an ongoing correction that could last into Friday’s shortened trading session before rolling over in a C-Wave down into next week. The Tuesday after a monthly expiration is a turn window in our work and we did get a bounce in the SPX, NDX and IWM into Wednesday. Bitcoin continued its bounce higher from Tuesday but remains entrenched in its down channel so far – will we get a post-Thanksgiving Day rally from millennials educating their parents about their newly created Bitcoin wealth? We still hold 50% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too great with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and the wildly-euphoric retail trade volume in call options. Another scary signal came from news that the down payments of 20% of first home buyers came from Bitcoin profits – the US economy is highly-levered to widespread speculation in stocks, stock options and digital currencies.  Gold made a high last week at $1879 and fell nearly $100 to $1777 early Wednesday after Comex gold option expiration and its 55-day Fibonacci step out from 9/29. We may have seen a short-term low in the PM sector Wednesday and some colleagues took a short-term trade on JNUG and GOLD. Crude oil remained elevated around $79 Wednesday night after Biden announced an international effort to lower prices that looks inadequate. Bonds sold off to multi-week lows early Wednesday as the 10-yr rate rallied to 1.69% before pulling back. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months - US liquidity conditions were tightening in advance of the Fed taper as US Excess Liquidity measures continue to roll over and that predicts a “compression” in the S&P 500 P/E ratio later this year and a possible end to the 12-yr bull market from 2009 in Q4 2021 or early 2022. The USD rallied to new highs for the year at 96.94 – the rising USD has depressed the price of Bitcoin and gold in the past week.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) –The NDX and SPX finished an EW 5-wave advance on the daily chart and started a correction on Monday that continued into Wednesday. The Tuesday after a monthly expiration is a turn window in our work and the SPX, NDX and IWM all made a B-Wave bounce from Tuesday that could last into Friday’s shortened session before a C-Wave down.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold trended lower from last week at $1879 into $1777 early Wednesday – we may have seen a trading low in the PM sector early today.

• Stocks – The SPY and the QQQ both rallied from Tuesday and the corrective looking bounce could continue into Friday before reversing in a C-Wave down into next week.
• Gold – From last week’s high at $1879, gold trended almost $100 lower to test $1777 early Wednesday, right after the 11/23 Comex option expiration and the 55-day Fibonacci step out from the key low on 9/29. We added calls on Barrick Gold for a bounce into Friday.
• Silver – Silver finished an EW a-b-c correction from last week’s high on Tuesday and gave us bullish divergence with gold this morning as it refused to go lower with gold.
• Bonds – Bonds continued their decline from 162 on Monday as the 10-yr US rate rallied to 1.69% this morning before a pullback.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil rallied to test $79 after Biden announced his plan for an international effort to lower prices. Both crude oil and natural gas could be primed for another leg higher as tensions mount between Russia and the Ukraine.
• Dollar Index –The USD made a new highs for the year today at 96.94 – the recent rise in the USD has pressured both gold and Bitcoin down.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 11/23.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 23, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX and NDX peaked near the announcement of Chairman Powell’s reappointment early Monday and continued their decline into Tuesday which is a turning point day in our work. We remain in 50% cash because of the macro factors facing the global economy (Chinese credit contraction, rising global inflation, and rising global rates, etc.) and the euphoric retail option trading going on in US markets. Interestingly, the Russell 2000 (IWM) may have made a low early Tuesday near the 11/19-11/22 Full Moon Timing Window and the oversold NYMO is a buy signal. On a macro level, our bias is that accelerating inflation will continue until the early December CPI report and that will pressure Powell and the FOMC to rethink their interest rate policy moves sooner than later – this could put an end to the stock bull market before year end. After a Q3 slump, the US economy is getting a post-Delta bounce and the start of the October blowoff in the Russell 2000 may have pulled forward the “January effect” into November/December. Crude oil rallied today and tested $79 overnight Tuesday despite Biden’s effort to lower global prices. Bitcoin, the best inflation hedge of the year by far, appears to be entrenched in a down channel. Gold continued its correction from $1879 early 11/16 and spiked down to $1781 on Tuesday’s Comex option expiration which was the 55-day Fibonacci step out from the 9/29 low. The USD made new highs for the year at 96.60 on Tuesday as the 10-yr US rate ran up to 1.67%.

11/23/21 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX and NDX continued their declines into early Tuesday as the new 52-week lows continued to outpace the new 52-week highs. In symmetry, the Russell 2000 (IWM) made an undercut low of Monday’s session. The Tuesday after a monthly expiration is a turn window and we expect a reversal higher in the broad-based Russell 2000(IWM) by early Wednesday. The NYMO closed below its lower Bollinger Band for a second consecutive day on Monday and that is a Buy Signal for the Russell 2000.  The SPX has entered a period of bullish seasonality into the end of November – one of the most bullish times of the year. Bitcoin bounced on Tuesday but remains entrenched in its down channel so far - our expected reversal higher after the Full Moon has failed to materialize so far. We still hold 50% cash as we feel that the macro risks of being 100% long are just too great with the global credit contraction led by China still progressing and the wildly-euphoric retail trade volume in call options. Gold made a high on 11/16 at $1879 and tested $1781 early Tuesday on the 11/23 Comex gold option expiration and 55-day Fibonacci step out. We may have seen a short-term low in the PM sector today and some colleagues took a short-term trade on JNUG and GOLD. Crude oil tested $79 Tuesday night after Biden announced an international effort to lower prices. Bonds sold off to multi-week lows as the the 10-yr rate rallied to 1.67% by the end of the session. In the US, the background monetary conditions have been deteriorating for months - US liquidity conditions were tightening in advance of the Fed taper as US Excess Liquidity measures continue to roll over and that predicts a “compression” in the S&P 500 P/E ratio later this year and a possible end to the 12-yr bull market from 2009 in Q4 2021 or early 2022. The USD is rallying to new highs for the year at 96.61 Monday night – the rising USD has depressed the price of Bitcoin and gold.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) –The NDX and SPX finished an EW 5-wave advance on the daily chart and started a correction on Monday. The Tuesday after a monthly expiration is a turn window in our work and we may have started a bounce higher in the IWM. There is bullish seasonality for US stocks into the end of November and we could see at least a bounce in the SPX into Friday.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold has trended lower from its 11/16 high at $1879 into $1781 on today’s Comex option expiration which is also the 55-day Fibonacci step from the 9/29 low.

• Stocks – The SPY and the QQQ both completed EW 5-wave rally patterns early Monday and started a correction that continued into Tuesday. The NYMO made back-to-back closes below its lower Bollinger Band into Monday which is a Buy Signal for the stock market for at least a seasonal bounce into Friday.
• Gold – From Tuesday’s high at $1879, gold trended lower to test $1781 on the 11/23 Comex option expiration which is the 55-day Fibonacci step out from the key low on 9/29. We added calls on Barrick Gold for a bounce into Friday.
• Silver – Weakness in the silver stocks on Friday argued for more down into the 11/23 Comex option expiration. A test of the S1 pivot at 23.18 is possible early Wednesday.
• Bonds – Bonds continued their decline from 162 on Monday as the 10-yr US rate rallied to 1.67%.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil rallied to test $79 after Biden announced his plan for an international effort to lower prices.
• Dollar Index –The USD made new highs for the year at 96.60 – the recent rise in the USD has pressured both gold and Bitcoin down.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 11/23.