All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 22, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The E-mini rallied in an EW 5-waves up from Sunday evening and confirmed that the June tock swoon ended on Friday’s close. The DJIA led the indices down into 6/18 while the NDX resisted the selloff the most. At this point, we feel that the FANG stocks will continue to lead the market higher to new all-time highs into July. We favor AAPL and MSFT as market leaders in the short term. Crude oil continues to hold up and could spike to its R2 pivot resistance at $74.01 into the 6/24-6/25 Full Moon Timing Window. Gold made a low at $1761 on the 34-day step out from 5/18 – a retracement rally into the 6/24-6/25 Full Moon Timing Window is likely. We are mainly focused here on the GDX which gave us an “exhaustion volume” signal on 6/17 and could see a spike higher into the 6/24 Full Moon. We are still holding 20%+ cash and expect volatility to continue this week. The USD declined in 5-waves to its S1 pivot at 91.68 on Tuesday – this could be bullish for the PM sector.   

6/22/21 (Commentary for Tuesday) The June stock swoon ended on 6/18 quad expiration, and this opens the door for new highs in the NDX and SPX into July. The NDX made a new all-time high today and AAPL, MSFT and the other FANG were market leaders. There is a lot of geo-cosmic activity this week – Jupiter went retrograde on 6/20, Mercury goes direct on 6/22, and Neptune goes retrograde on 6/25 and this activity will bring volatility. Cycles pointed to an important low on 6/16-6/18 and we did get a DJIA washout and a touch of fear in our indicators. Our big picture take is that the post-Covid-19 economic bounce is not as robust as many assume and could be obviously failing by October when the extended unemployment benefits roll off. Bitcoin plunged below 30,000 and tested 28,800 before staging a massive reversal higher to test its R1 pivot at 34,500 – a close below 30,000 would be bearish. Crude oil continues to hold up overnight just above its Person’s pivot at $73.06 - a run higher to its R2 resistance pivot at $74.01 into the 6/24-6/25 Full Moon Timing Window is possible. The GDX gave us an “exhaustion volume” signal on 6/17 and looks ready for a rally into the 6/24 Full Moon. Gold must recapture its 200-dma by the Full Moon Timing Window on 6/24-6/25 or risk sliding below $1750 for more retracement. The Fed tapering strategy spiked the USD to a multi-month high at 92.4 last week but today rolled over in 5-waves to test 91.68 which should be a tailwind for the PM sector.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The E-mini rallied in 5-waves from Sunday evening on the hourly chart and that argues that the June stock swoon is over. Our bias is for higher NDX and SPX highs into July/August before a Major Top by Labor Day – the 34-yr Fibonacci step out from 1987 should give us a major high this summer and then a bear market will start that could last until the fall of 2022 or spring of 2023. We are holding 20%+ cash but intend to increase that as we get into July/August. Our exit strategy is to be in mostly cash by Labor Day with the expectation that spiking long rates could give the stock market a vicious correction this fall.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – A Fed taper plan spiked the USD into Friday and knocked gold down to $1761 – gold needs to quickly regain its 200-dma around $1840 by the 6/24-6/25 Full Moon Timing Window or risk a larger retracement below $1750.

• Stocks – The E-mini gave us an EW a-b-c correction into Sunday night and our bias is that this ended the June stock swoon. We now like AAPL and the FANG stocks to lead the NDX and SPX to new highs into July.
• Gold –Gold was hammered down to $1761 on Friday’s close, but we rallied in 5-waves to test $1788 on Monday which is bullish for more rally into the 6/24 Full Moon. The GDX gave us an exhaustion signal on 6/17 and the gold stocks look ready to rally into the 6/24-6/25 Full Moon Timing Window.
• Silver –Silver fell in 5-waves to test $25.58 on Monday’s 34-day Fibonacci step out from its 5/17 high. Silver is coiling above its Person’s pivot overnight at $25.87.
• Bonds – Bonds are hovering around its Person’s pivot at 159’29 overnight.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil rallied to highs for the year at $73.36 overnight Monday – a spike to its R2 pivot at $74.01 is possible into the 6/24 Full Moon.
• Dollar Index – The USD traded out 5-waves down on the hourly chart and tested $91.68 – this should help boost the PM sector.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week is 6/22, and 6/24-6/25.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 21, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  Stocks gave us a big move down into quad witching Friday and we got a large snack-back rally on Monday that filled the gag at SPX 4221.26 and IWM 227.09. The Tuesday after a monthly expiration is a turning point day and we are expecting volatility. Did the June swoon end Friday or do we have another leg down – we will probably find out by Wednesday. Crude oil made highs for the year at $73.31 on Monday evening – oil could be spiking into the 6/24 Full Moon Timing Window. Gold made a low at $1761 on the 34-day step out from 5/18 – a retracement rally into the 6/24-6/25 Full Moon Timing Window is likely. We are still holding 20%+ cash and expect volatility to continue this week. The USD rallied in 5-waves to 92.40 on Friday and started to roll over impulsively on Monday – if the USD made an important high, this could be a tailwind for the PM sector.

6/21/21 (Commentary for Monday) Did the June swoon end on Friday’s quad expiration or did we just finish the first leg down – how we trade into Tuesday and Wednesday will enlighten us. The Tuesday after a monthly expiration is a turn window in our work so we are expecting volatility tomorrow. There is a lot of geo-cosmic activity this week – Jupiter went retrograde on 6/20, Mercury goes direct on 6/22, and Neptune goes retrograde on 6/25 and this activity will bring volatility. Seasonal trading argued for a short of the SPX and NDX on Friday/Monday and then a cover by late June – we’ll see if that holds up this week. Our big picture take is that the post-Covid-19 economic bounce is not as robust as many assume and could be obviously failing by October when the extended unemployment benefits roll off. Bitcoin tested its S1 pivot at 31,110 Monday evening and then bounced – a close below 30,000 would be bearish. Crude oil rallied to a year high at $73.33 – oil could correct into the 6/24-6/25 Full Moon Timing Window this week and provide a nice setup in XOM and CVX. Gold rallied in 5-waves off Friday’s low and tested its R1 pivot at $1788 – gold must recapture its 200-dma by the Full Moon Timing Window on 6/24-6/25 or risk sliding below $1750 for more retracement. The Fed tapering strategy spiked the USD to a multi-month high at 92.4 last week but we started rolling over on Monday – a break below 91.82 would give us 5-waves down and argue for a top – this would be a tailwind for the PM sector.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX made a divergent new high at 4257.16 near the open on 6/15 and in the high-energy 6/14-6/16 turn window – we may have started a SPX correction with a target to 4060. Our bias is for a correction low by the 6/24-6/25 Full Moon Timing Window and then higher SPX highs into July/August before a possible Major Top by Labor Day – the 34-yr Fibonacci step out from 1987 should give us a major high this summer and then a bear market that could last until the fall of 2022 or spring of 2023. We are holding 20%+ cash but intend to increase that as we get into July/August. Our exit strategy is to be in mostly cash by Labor Day with the expectation that spiking long rates could give the stock market a vicious correction this fall.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – A Fed taper plan spiked the USD into Friday and knocked gold down to $1761 – gold needs to quickly regain its 200-dma around $1840 by the 6/24-6/25 Full Moon Timing Window or risk a larger retracement below $1750.

• Stocks – The E-mini gave us 5-waves down into Sunday night – was this the end of the June swoon or just the Wave A ?. The Tuesday after a monthly  expiration is a turn window in our work and we are expecting volatility.
• Gold –Gold was hammered by the market’s reaction to the Fed announcement last week – the spiking USD slammed gold back to $1761 on Friday’s close, but we rallied in 5-waves to test $1788 on Monday which is constructive. We need to see gold quickly regain its 200-dma around $1840 by the 6/24-6/25 Full Moon or fall back below $1750 for more basing action.
• Silver – Silver fell in 5-waves to test $25.58 on Monday’s 34-day Fibonacci step out from its 5/17 high. Silver is coiling around its Person’s pivot overnight at $25.87.
• Bonds – Bonds fell to 159’18 overnight Monday as long rates began to rotate higher.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil rallied to highs for the year at $73.36 overnight Monday – a spike to $100 is possible by Labor Day.
• Dollar Index – The Fed taper plan boosted the USD to multi-month highs at 92.40 on Friday but we started rolling over on Monday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week is 6/22, and 6/24-6/25.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - June 20, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The Fed provided a taper strategy last week with a proposed two rate hikes in 2023 and an increase in overnight Reverse-Repo Rates which is not well understood by the investment public. In any case, the powerful geo-cosmic turn window from 6/14-6/16 gave us highs in many global indices like the SPX and NDX but led to selling by Friday. It appears like we started a June swoon on Friday that could accelerate into the 6/24 Full Moon. Seasonal trading argued for a sell on the SPY or IWM on 6/18 for a trade into late June. The SPX made a divergent high on 6/15 and a 7% pullback is possible – a move down to SPX 4050 by the 6/24 Full Moon is likely. Crude oil bounced to test its R1 pivot at $72 overnight Sunday – this is bearish for the SPX. Gold was hit hard after the Fed announcement and closed at $1761 on Friday – a close below $1750 would be bearish. We are still holding 20%+ cash and expect volatility to continue this week. The USD rallied to 92.40 on Friday and is holding in a tight range overnight Sunday that is pressuring both gold and the SPX.

6/20/21 (Commentary for Sunday) The June swoon for the SPX has arrived and the E-mini futures are falling overnight Sunday. US bonds are getting a bid and the US long rates are falling. SELL SIGNALS from our indicators continue to pile up and the SPX and IWM both appear to be in correction mode. Seasonal trading argued for a short of the SPX and NDX by Friday and then a cover by late June. The SPX made a divergent high into the 6/14-6/16 high energy geo-cosmic turn window and the Fed taper strategy sparked a correction that could take us to SPX 4060 this week. Our big picture take is that the post-Covid-19 economic bounce is not as robust as many assume and could be obviously failing by October when the extended unemployment benefits roll off. Bitcoin is trying to hold on to its R1 pivot at 34,350 overnight Sunday – a close below 30,000 would be bearish. Crude oil bounced to test its R1 pivot at $72 overnight Sunday – oil could correct into the 6/24 Full Moon this week and provide a nice setup in XOM and CVX. The Fed tapering strategy spiked the USD to a multi-month high at 92.4 which pressured gold down to $1761 on Friday’s close  – a break below $1750 would be bearish for more retracement – it will be do or die this week for gold. The Fed’s taper plan caused a selloff in the Euro which is giving the USD a strong bid.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX made a divergent new high at 4257.16 near the open Tuesday and into the high-energy 6/14-6/16 turn window – we started a SPX correction with a target to 4060. Our bias is for a correction low this week and then higher SPX highs into July before a possible Major Top by Labor Day – the 34-yr Fibonacci step out from 1987 should give us a major high this summer and then a bear market that could last until the fall of 2022 or spring of 2023. We are holding 20%+ cash but intend to increase that as we get into July/August. Our exit strategy is to be in mostly cash by Labor Day with the expectation that spiking long rates could give the stock market a vicious correction this fall.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – A Fed taper plan spiked the USD into Friday and knocked gold down to $1761 – gold needs to hold above $1750 or risk a large retracement.

• Stocks – The SPX made a new all-time high at 4257.16 near the open Tuesday before starting a correction that is accelerating down Sunday night. We added SPY and IWM put hedges on Friday.
• Gold – Gold was hammered by the market’s reaction to the Fed announcement – the spiking USD slammed gold back to $1761 on Friday’s close. We need to see gold hold above $1750 or risk a test of $1700.
• Silver – Silver was slammed down by the USD spike to close Friday at $25.81 – inflation expectations collapsed with US long rates into the weekend.
• Bonds – Bonds are testing its R2 pivot at 163’02 overnight Sunday as inflation expectations collapse.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $72 overnight Sunday before rolling over - we like the oil stocks on a correction into the 6/24 Full Moon.
• Dollar Index – The Fed taper plan boosted the USD to multi-month highs at 92.40 and that is pressuring gold.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 6/24-6/25.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 17, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  As US long rates pulled back early Thursday, the NDX was able to make an all-time high, However, both the SPX and IWM appear to be in correction mode and we keep getting SELL SIGNALS from our Option Premium Indicator.  Seasonal trading argues for a sell on the SPY or IWM tomorrow for a trade into late June. The SPX made a divergent high into the high-energy 6/14-6/16 turn window on Thursday and we are rolling over into a 3-5% correction – a move down to SPX 4050 by next week is possible. Crude oil tested $73 before the Fed announcement but rolled over hard on Thursday – this is bearish for the SPX. Gold was hit hard after the Fed announcement but managed to close above its .618 retracement level at $1770. We are still holding 20%+ cash and expect volatility to continue into Friday’s Triple Witching expiration. The USD rallied in 5-waves to test 92.08 but is going sideways overnight – higher highs in the USD will pressure both gold and the SPX.

6/17/21 (Commentary for Thursday) When long rates declined after early Thursday, the NDX made a new all-time high. However, SELL SIGNALS from our indicators continue to pile up and the SPX and IWM both appear to be in correction mode. Seasonal trading argues for a short of the SPX and NDX by Friday/Monday and then a cover by late June. The SPX made a divergent high into the 6/14-6/16 high energy geo-cosmic turn window and started a correction that could take us to SPX 4060 by next week. The SPX made a sideways correction today but has negative seasonality into the second half of June. Our big picture take is that the post-Covid-19 economic bounce is not as robust as many assume and could be obviously failing by October when the extended unemployment benefits roll off. Bitcoin tested its Person’s pivot overnight and fell under 38,000 – a close below 30,000 would be bearish. Another asset class needs to step up and take over a leadership role here – it appears that crude oil and the oil stocks (XLE) will try to fill that role. Crude oil tested its R1 pivot at $73 early Wednesday on an inventory draw down before correcting down hard today – oil could correct into next week and give us a nice setup in XOM and CVX. The spike in long rates after the Fed announcement ramped the USD and pressured gold down to test its .618 retracement around $1770 – a close below $1770 would be bearish for more retracement. The Fed’s guidance to maintain low rates until early 2022 was met by a spike in long rates to %1.594 and the USD to 91.48 which slammed gold.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX made a divergent new high at 4257.16 near the open Tuesday and into the high-energy 6/14-6/16 turn window – we started a SPX correction with a target to 4060. Our bias is for a correction low by next week and then more SPX highs into June/July before a possible Major Top by Labor Day – the 34-yr Fibonacci step out from 1987 should give us a major high this summer and then a bear market that could last until the fall of 2022 or spring of 2023. We are holding 20%+ cash but intend to increase that as we get into July/August. Our exit strategy is to be in mostly cash by Labor Day with the expectation that spiking long rates could give the stock market a vicious correction this fall.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold was pounded by the market reaction to the Fed announcement – a rate spike to %1.594 ramped the USD to 91.48 and that pounded gold back to test $1800. Gold may have made its DCL today (daily cycle low).

• Stocks – The SPX made a new all-time high at 4257.16 near the open Tuesday before starting a correction that accelerated after the Fed announcement. We are looking for a test of 4060 into next week. The XLE appears the sector to buy as crude oil makes highs for the year.
• Gold –Gold was hammered by the market’s reaction to the Fed announcement – long rates spiked and boosted the USD which slammed gold back to $1800.
• Silver –Silver was slammed down by the USD spike to 91.47 and went as low as $26.7 – silver fell hard into the 6/14-6/16 high-energy turn window.
• Bonds – Bonds tested 158’30 and then rolled over after the Fed announcement – the 10-yr US rate spiked to %1.594 which pressured stocks.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil made a new high for the year at $73 on a strong inventory drawdown - we like the oil stocks on a correction into next week.
• Dollar Index – Spiking rated boosted the USD to 91.48 and that slammed gold back to test $1800.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week was 6/14-6/16, a 3-start geo-cosmic turn window.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 16, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  We got correction action after the Fed event today and the E-mini fell to its S1 support pivot at 4187. We could see a correction bounce back into Thursdays open. The SPX made a divergent high into the high-energy 6/14-6/16 turn window and we are rolling over into a 3-5% correction – a move down to SPX 4050 by next week is possible. Crude oil tested $73 before the Fed announcement but rolled over to test its S1 support pivot at $71.46 Monday evening. Gold was hit hard after the Fed announcement and tested $1804.4 as the USD soared. We are still holding 20%+ cash and expect volatility to continue into Friday’s Triple Witching expiration. The USD spiked to multi-week highs at 91.48 and this sank the PM sector.

6/16/21 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX made an intra-day high near Tuesday’s open and then started a correction that accelerated after the Fed announcement. The SPX made a divergent high into the 6/14-6/16 high energy geo-cosmic turn window and started a correction that could take us to SPX 4060 by next week. The SPX has negative seasonality into the second half of June. Our multiple SPX sell signals came home to roost today as the 10-yr US rate spiked to 1.594% after the Fed announcement. Our big picture take is that the post-Covid-19 economic bounce is not as robust as many assume and could be obviously failing by October when the extended unemployment benefits roll off. Bitcoin also wilted after the Fed announcement and fell to 38,000 before rebounding to its Person’s pivot at 39083. Another asset class needs to step up and take over a leadership role here – it appears that crude oil and the oil stocks (XLE) will try to fill that role. Crude oil tested its R1 pivot at $73 early Wednesday on an inventory draw down – oil stocks have room to run into Labor Day. We are looking to use this correction as an opportunity to add to stocks in the XLE, XLF and XLB sectors. The spike in long rates after the Fed announcement ramped the USD and pressured gold down to test its $1800 line of support – gold declined $100 into the 6/14-6/16 turn window. The Fed’s guidance to maintain low rates until early 2022 was met by a spike in long rates to 1.594% and the USD to 91.48 which slammed gold.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX made a divergent new high at 4257.16 near the open Tuesday and into the high-energy 6/14-6/16 turn window – we started a SPX correction with a target to 4060. Our bias is for a correction low by next week and then more SPX highs into June/July before a possible Major Top by Labor Day – the 34-yr Fibonacci step out from 1987 should give us a major high this summer and then a bear market that could last until the fall of 2022 or spring of 2023. We are holding 20%+ cash but intend to increase that as we get into July/August. Our exit strategy is to be in mostly cash by Labor Day with the expectation that spiking long rates could give the stock market a vicious correction this fall.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold was pounded by the market reaction to the Fed announcement – a rate spike to %1.594 ramped the USD to 91.48 and that pounded gold back to test $1800. Gold may have made its DCL today (daily cycle low).

• Stocks – The SPX made a new all-time high at 4257.16 near the open Tuesday before starting a correction that accelerated after the Fed announcement. We are looking for a test of 4060 into next week. The XLE appears the sector to buy as crude oil makes highs for the year.
• Gold – Gold was hammered by the market’s reaction to the Fed announcement – long rates spiked and boosted the USD which slammed gold back to $1800.
• Silver – Silver was slammed down by the USD spike to 91.47 and went as low as $26.7 – silver fell hard into the 6/14-6/16 high-energy turn window.
• Bonds – Bonds tested 158’30 and then rolled over after the Fed announcement – the 10-yr US rate spiked to %1.594 which pressured stocks.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil made a new high for the year at $73 on a strong inventory drawdown - we like the oil stocks on a correction into next week.
• Dollar Index – Spiking rated boosted the USD to 91.48 and that slammed gold back to test $1800.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week are 6/14-6/16, a 3-start geo-cosmic turn window.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 15, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  We are getting sell signals in the SPX as we approach the Fed announcement on Wednesday. Corrective  action in the SPX appears likely to begin after the Fed announcement on Wednesday. Our Option Premium Ratio indicator gave us back-to-back values of .42 today which is a SELL SIGNAL and Carl Swenlin’s Silver Cross Index gave us a sharp negative divergence on the new high in the SPX this week which is another SELL SIGNAL. Our bias is for corrective action to start after the Fed event on Wednesday. Crude oil tested $72.83 overnight Tuesday night as oil stocks outperformed during the day session, but the lack of support from other commodity stocks was notable and another warning sign for the SPX. Gold made a high-volume breakout above its 200-dma in May and is now giving us a low-volume retest of it – this is bullish. We are still holding 20%+ cash and expect volatility before and after the Fed event on Wednesday. The USD gave us 5-waves up on its hourly chart to a high for the week at 90.675 – a strong USD (or weak Euro) has been holding gold back in recent days.

6/15/21 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX made an intra-day high near the open and then started a correction. The SPX has rallied into the 6/14-6/16 high energy geo-cosmic turn window while gold has declined into it. We could possibly rally early Wednesday, but we expect a correction after Wednesday’s Fed event. We had two SELL SIGNALS in the SPX at the close today – we had back-to-back readings of .42 in our Option Premium Ratio indicator and a SELL SIGNAL in Carl Swenlin’s Silver Cross Index which gave us a sharp negative divergence on the latest new high in the SPX. Our big picture take is that the post-Covid-19 economic bounce is not as robust as many assume and could be obviously failing by October as the extended unemployment benefits roll off. Bitcoin is holding above 40,000 at its Person’s pivot overnight – it needs to hold above 29,000-30,000 support or risk falling back to 20,000. Another asset class needs to step up and take over a leadership role here – it appears that crude oil and the oil stocks (XLE) will try to fill that role. Crude oil is trying to test its R1 pivot at $73.05 – we could make a short-term high this week. After the Fed event on Wednesday – a 3-5% SPX correction after the 6/14-6/16 turn window could give us an opportunity to add to stocks in the XLE, XLF and XLB sectors. Gold made a high-volume break out above its 200-dma in May and is now doing a low-volume retest of that moving average – we consider that as bullish. The Fed guidance this week could have a big impact on the PM sector and the inflation trade in general. The USD finished 5-waves higher on the hourly and is holding above its Person’s pivot at 90.5 and pressuring gold overnight.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX made a new high at 4257.16 near the open Tuesday and into the high-energy 6/14-6/16 turn window. Our bias is for a modest correction after Wednesday’s Fed event and then more SPX highs into June/July before a possible Major Top by Labor Day – the 34-yr Fibonacci step out from 1987 should give us a major high this summer and then a bear market that could last until the fall of 2022 or spring of 2023. We are holding 20%+ cash but intend to increase that as we get into July/August. Our exit strategy is to be in mostly cash by Labor Day with the expectation that spiking long rates could give the stock market a vicious correction this fall.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold made a weekly close over the important downtrend line from the 8/7 high and this is bullish. Gold undercut last week’s low and touched $1846 early Monday. Gold broke out above its 200-dma on high volume and is back testing it on low volume – this is bullish.

• Stocks – The SPX made a new all-time high at 4257.16 near the open before starting a correction into the close. We expect a modest correction after the Wednesday Fed event. The XLE appears the sector to buy as crude oil makes highs for the year.
• Gold –Gold is being pressured by bullion banks as we approach the Basil III restrictions on 6/28 – gold broke out above its 200-dma on high volume but now is back testing it on low volume – this is bullish. NEM and GOLD stocks look like buys on dips here.
• Silver – Silver undercut Monday’s low but continues to get pulled back up into the $28 resistance level. Silver coiled sideways into the high-energy 6/14-6/16 turn window and that is bullish.
• Bonds – Bonds declined in 5-waves on the hourly chart – long rates may bounce into Wednesday’s Fed statement.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil made a new high for the year at $72.83 overnight Tuesday - we like the XLE on dips.
• Dollar Index – Due to a weakening Euro, the USD is holding near last week’s high at 90.5 and pressuring gold.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week are 6/14-6/16, a 3-start geo-cosmic turn window.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 14, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX made a new all-time high at 4255.59 as stocks rallied into the powerful 6/14-6/16 turn window that includes the Wednesday Fed meeting. Our bias is for highs of the week into 6/14-6/16 and then a correction after the Fed event on Wednesday. Crude oil made highs for the year at $71.78 early Monday and argues that “Peak Inflation” arguments on CNBC are premature. The bullion banks raided gold last night and knocked gold down briefly below $1850 before it recovered to close near $1866 – chances are gold made a low on Monday. We are still holding 20%+ cash and expect volatility before and after the Fed event on Wednesday. The USD is hugging its Persons pivot around 90.51 overnight – a strong USD (or weak Euro) has been holding gold back in recent weeks.

6/14/21 (Commentary for Monday) We expected a lot of volatility in the markets this week, and it really manifested in gold and silver into Monday as we may have made lows for the week. For the SPX, the trend to higher highs is continuing into the high-energy 6/14-6/16 turn window and we made all-time highs in the SPX at 4255.59 which could be close to the highs for the week. We could possibly rally more into the 6/14-6/16 high-energy turn window, but we expect a correction after Wednesday’s Fed event. Our big picture take is that the post-Covid-19 economic bounce is not as robust as many assume and could be obviously failing by October as the extended unemployment benefits roll off. After favorable comments from Elon Musk, bitcoin is holding above 40,000 and its Person’s pivot overnight – it needs to hold above 29,000-30,000 support or risk falling back to 20,000. Another asset class needs to step up and take over a leadership role here – it appears that crude oil and the oil stocks (XLE) will try to fill that role. Crude oil is hugging its Person’s pivot at $71.18 overnight – we could make a short-term high early this week. After the Fed event on Wednesday – a 3-5% SPX correction after the 6/14-6/15 turn window could give us an opportunity to add to stocks in the XLE, XLF or XLB sectors. Gold was raided below $1850 early Monday and we bounced back to $1866 – the Fed guidance this week could have a big impact on the PM sector and the inflation trade in general. The USD is holding above 90.5 and pressuring gold overnight.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX made a new high at 4255.59 near the close Monday and into the high-energy 6/14-6/16 turn window. Our bias is for more SPX highs into June/July and then a possible Major Top by Labor Day – the 34-yr Fibonacci step out from 1987 should give us a major high this summer and then a bear market that could last until the fall of 2022 or spring of 2023. We are holding 20%+ cash but intend to increase that as we get into July/August. Our exit strategy is to be in mostly cash by Labor Day with the expectation that spiking long rates could give the stock market a vicious correction this fall.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold made a weekly close over the important downtrend line from the 8/7 high and this is bullish. Gold undercut last week’s low and touched $1846 early Monday. A close above $1925 after the Fed event on Wednesday would be bullish.

• Stocks – The SPX made a new all-time high into the 6/14-6/16 turn window at 4255.59 today, but we expect a modest correction after the Wednesday Fed event. The XLE appears the place to be as crude oil makes highs for the year.
• Gold –Gold is being pressured by bullion banks as we approach the Basil III restrictions on 6/28 – overnight selling took us to $1846 before a rebound to $1866. A close above $1925 after the Fed Wednesday would be bullish.
• Silver –Silver corrected hard early Monday but continues to rebound to the $28 level. Silver coiled sideways into the high-energy 6/14-6/16 turn window and that is bullish.
• Bonds – Bonds may have finished a 5-wave rally pattern at 159’29 on the hourly chart – long rates may rally into Wednesday’s Fed statement.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil made a new high for the year at $71.78. We like the XLE on dips.
• Dollar Index –Due to a weakening Euro, the USD is holding near last week’s high at 90.5 and pressuring gold.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week are 6/14-6/16, a 3-start geo-cosmic turn window.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - June 13, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX made a new intra-day high at 4279.74 and closed the week strong. The market is in an uptrend into the powerful 6/14-6/16 turn window that includes the Wednesday Fed meeting. Our bias is for higher highs into 6/14-6/16 and then a correction after the Fed event on Wednesday.  The price action in bonds (and lower rates) remains supportive of higher prices early this week. This is short-term bullish for the SPX, QQQ and gold.  Also, our TRIN-5 indicator got to 6 (oversold) on Thursday when the SPX made an all-time high – this is also short-term bullish. Crude oil made highs for the year at $71.24 on Friday and argues that “Peak Inflation” arguments on CNBC are premature. Gold gave us another B-wave test of the 6/8 high and then reversed down to test the lows of the week at $1871 into late Friday – chances are gold could make highs for the week in the 6/14-6/16 turn window. We are still holding 20%+ cash and expect volatility before and after the Fed event on Wednesday. The USD tested highs for the week Friday at 90.6 – a strong USD (or weak Euro) has been holding gold back in recent weeks.

6/13/21 (Commentary for Sunday) We expected a lot of volatility in the markets last week, but it really only manifested in gold and silver – for the SPX, the trend to higher highs is continuing into the high-energy 6/14-6/16 turn window. We are looking for more rally into the 6/14-6/16 high-energy turn window, and we expect a correction after Wednesday’s Fed event. Our big picture take is that the post-Covid-19 economic bounce is not as robust as many assume and could be obviously failing by October as the extended unemployment benefits roll off. The GBTC (Greyscale bitcoin trust) made an “island reversal” on Wednesday and that has helped propel bitcoin futures to a test of 40,000 Sunday evening. Bitcoin is holding above its R2 pivot(38,618) Sunday night– it needs to hold above 29,000-30,000 support or risk falling back to 20,000. Another asset class needs to step up and take over a leadership role here – it appears that crude oil and the oil service stocks (OIH) will try to fill that role. Crude oil is testing the R1 pivot resistance at $71.28 Sunday night on its run into the 6/14-6/16 turn window – we could make a short-term high this week. After the Fed event on Wednesday – a 3-5% correction after the 6/14-6/15 turn window could give us an opportunity to add to stocks in the XLE, XLF or XLB sectors. Gold has shown big volatility last week and is undercutting last week’s low at $1871 Sunday evening – we could see a reversal higher on Monday, but this has been a tough trade. The USD is testing last week’s high at 90.6 and pressuring gold overnight.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX made a new high at 4249 after the CPI and then consolidated sideways – this is bullish for more rally into the high-energy 6/14-6/16 turn window. Our bias is for more SPX highs into June/July and then a possible Major Top by Labor Day – the 34-yr Fibonacci step out from 1987 should give us a major high this summer and then a bear market that could last until the fall of 2022 or spring of 2023. We are holding 20%+ cash but intend to increase that as we get into July/August. Our exit strategy is to be in mostly cash by Labor Day with the expectation that spiking long rates could give the stock market a vicious correction this fall.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold made a weekly close over the important downtrend line from the 8/7 high and this is bullish. Gold is undercutting last week’s low at $1871 overnight Sunday and is still trying to chew through the $1895-$1915 resistance area. A close above $1925 would be bullish.

• Stocks – The SPX is rallying into the 6/14-6/16 turn window and we expect a modest correction after the Wednesday Fed event. The XLE appears the place to be as crude oil makes highs for the year.
• Gold –Gold is being pressured by bullion banks as we approach the Basil III restrictions on 6/28. We are undercutting $1871 overnight as we enter the 6/14-6/16 turn window. A close above $1925 would be bullish.
• Silver –Silver is correcting below $28 overnight Sunday but is holding up better than gold. A strong USD is pressuring the PM complex.
• Bonds – Bonds appear to be correcting in a small 4^th wave into the 6/14-6/16 turn window – a high above 160 is possible next week.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil made a new high for the year at $71.32 and tested the R1 pivot Sunday night. We like the XLE on dips.
• Dollar Index –Due to a weakening Euro, the USD is testing last week’s high at 90.6 and pressuring gold.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week are 6/14-6/16, a 3-start geo-cosmic turn window.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 10, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  Today was an interesting market day. The rally in bonds yesterday was telling – TLT did retest its breakout at 141 after the hot CPI report but ended the day strong. The action in bonds yesterday strongly suggested that bonds had already discounted a hot CPI report and was looking past it. This is short-term bullish for the SPX, QQQ and gold.  Also, our TRIN-5 indicator got to 6 (oversold) on a day when the SPX made an all-time high – this is also short-term bullish. Crude oil made a high for the year at $70.65 near the exact New Moon/solar eclipse and then started a correction - XOM was our best proxy for that move. Bonds bullishly discounted a strong CPI number and ended the day strong – this is bullish for the SPX, QQQ and gold. Gold pulled back sharply to $1871 and finished an EW a-b-c correction from Tuesday – gold is trying to chew through strong resistance from $1895-2015. We are still holding 20%+ but the SPX and QQQ could blow off higher into the 6/14-6/15 high-energy turn window. The USD is hovering above 90 overnight – a decisive break below the S1 support pivot at 89.93 would be bullish for gold.

6/10/21 (Commentary for Thursday) With Mercury going retrograde on 5/29, the markets have taken on an extra degree of volatility that includes false breakdowns and false breakouts. That is something to remember as we rally past the 6/10 New Moon and leave the hot CPI number behind. Our cautious strategy had us taking profits on our XOM and SLB positions into the close on Wednesday but crude oil and XOM made higher highs Thursday before correcting. Stocks were cheered by a rallying bond market and the SPX made a new all-time high at 4239. We are now looking for more rally into the 6/14-6/15 high-energy turn window. Our big picture take is that the post-Covid-19 economic bounce is not as robust as many assume and could be obviously failing by October as the extended unemployment benefits roll off. Bitcoin is oscillating around its Person’s pivot at 36,697 and held rally gains after the CPI report – it needs to hold above 29,000-30,000 support or risk falling back to 20,000. Another asset class needs to step up and take over a leadership role here – perhaps the PM sector is due for such a rotation. Crude oil tested the R1 pivot resistance at $70.62, new highs for the year, Tuesday night on its run into the 6/10 New Moon and then reversed down to test the S2 support pivot at $68.8 before rallying back to test $70 into the evening. The energy, banking and materials sectors remain our favorite investment vehicles going forward and deserve allocation from investors on weakness – a 5% correction into the 6/14-6/15 turn window, if we get it, could give us an opportunity to add to stocks in the XLE, XLF or XLB sectors. Gold finished an EW a-b-c pullback into the New Moon and touched $1871 before reversing above $1900 Thursday evening – more rally is possible into the 6/14-6/15 turn window. The USD is hovering above $90 overnight and a break below 90 would be bullish for gold early Friday.

 Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX made a new high at 4249 after the CPI and then consolidated sideways – this is bullish for more rally into the 6/14-6/15 turn window. Our bias is for new SPX highs into summer and then a possible Major Top by July/August – the 34-yr Fibonacci step out from 1987 should give us a major high this summer and then a bear market that could last until the fall of 2022 or spring of 2023. We are holding 20%+ cash but intend to increase that as we get into July/August. Our exit strategy is to be in mostly cash by Labor Day with the expectation that spiking long rates could give the stock market a vicious correction this fall.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold made a weekly close over the important downtrend line from the 8/7 high and this is bullish. Gold pulled back in an EW a-b-c correction to test $1871 into the New Moon and then rebounded above $1900 into the evening – it is still trying to chew through the $1895-$1915 resistance area. A close above $1925 would be bullish.

• Stocks – The SPX made a new intra-day high after the New Moon/solar eclipse today and then consolidated sideways – we are looking for more rally into the 6/14-6/15 turn window next week.
• Gold –Gold corrected into the 6/10 New Moon and tested $1871 before reversing higher above $1900 into the evening – - a close above $1925 would be bullish.
• Silver –Silver pulled back into the New Moon and tested $27.49  before a reversal higher that is testing the R1 resistance pivot at $28.38 overnight.
• Bonds – Bonds discounted the hot CPI report - after digesting a brief pullback, bonds rallied to end the day strong – a plus for the QQQ.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil made a new high for the year at $70.62 overnight Tuesday before a sharp decline to $68.80 near the New Moon – we then bounced back to test $70 overnight Thursday. We like crude oil on dips.
• Dollar Index –The USD is hovering over 90 overnight – a decisive break below 90 would be bullish for gold.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 6/10-6/11, the New Moon Timing Window.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 9, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX made another intra-day high into the New Moon Timing Window today, but the NYSE Advance/Decline started to roll over. We may have seen highs for the week and the start of a correction into the 6/14-6/15 high-energy turn window. The CPI report at 8:30 am on 6/10 will be a market catalyst – a stronger than expected CPI number could generate a market correction. Crude oil gave us a run higher going into the 6/9-6/10 New Moon Timing Window XOM and SLB have been our proxies for that move. The oil service sector (OIH) is rotating into a leadership position in the energy sector. Bonds have traced out an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern on the hourly chart and that augurs for higher prices and lower long rates in June – the 10-yr US Treasury auction went quite well today – bonds may be hinting of a weaker than expected CPI report. Gold pulled back in an EW a-b-c correction to test $1855 on 6/3 and that gave us a daily cycle low (DCL) – we then traced out 5-waves up on the hourly and an EW a-b-c correction into early Thursday. We are still holding 20%+ and sold some trading positions as we near the much-anticipated CPI report early tomorrow. The USD tested S2 pivot support at 89.86 early Wednesday and started a bounce to test 90.20 that is pressuring gold and silver.

6/09/21 (Commentary for Wednesday) With Mercury going retrograde on 5/29, the markets have taken on an extra degree of volatility that includes false breakdowns and false breakouts. That is something to remember as we trade into the exact New Moon early Thursday which is coincident with the CPI report at 8:30 AM EDT – this report could be a major catalyst for the market.  Our cautious strategy had us take profits on our XOM and SLB positions into the close on Wednesday in case the pre-market volatility pulls the SPX down early Thursday. If the SPX rallies instead from a weaker than expected CPI report, we will look to re-enter with the idea of being out by the 6/14-6/15 turn window. Our big picture take is that the post-Covid-19 economic bounce is not as robust as many assume and could be obviously failing by October as the extended unemployment benefits roll off. Bitcoin sharply rebounded from its mid-day low at 30,915 on Tuesday and tested 37,000 into Wednesday evening. Bitcoin needed to hold above 29,000-30,000 support or risk falling back to 20,000. Another asset class needs to step up and take over a leadership role here – perhaps the PM sector is due for such a rotation. Crude oil tested the R1 pivot resistance at $70.62, new highs for the year, Tuesday night on its run into the 6/10 New Moon. The energy, banking and materials sectors remain our favorite investment vehicles going forward and deserve allocation from investors on weakness – a 5% correction into the 6/14-6/15 turn window could give us an opportunity to add to stocks in the XLE, XLF or XLB sectors. Gold gave us a daily cycle low (DCL) on 6/3 at $1855 but appears to be consolidating into the 6/10 New Moon – a spike in the USD after the CPI report could start a correction. The USD bounced to 90.20 Wednesday evening and that is keeping pressure on gold.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX rallied after the NFP jobs report and may have made a short-term high into the 6/10 New Moon. Our bias is for new SPX highs into summer and then a possible Major Top by July/August – the 34-yr Fibonacci step out from 1987 should give us a major high this summer and then a bear market that could last until the fall of 2022 or spring of 2023. We are holding 20%+ cash but intend to increase that as get into July/August. Our exit strategy is to be in mostly cash by Labor Day with the expectation that spiking long rates could give the stock market a vicious correction this fall.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold made a weekly close over the important downtrend line from the 8/7 high and this is bullish. Gold pulled back hard into the 34-day Fibonacci step out on 6/3 and tested $1855 – we view this as a daily cycle low (DCL). The CPI report early on 6/10 could be a catalyst for a reversal in gold.

• Stocks – The SPX made a new intra-day high today, but we are cautious of a hot CPI report that could give us a pullback. We exited our short-term SLB and XOM positions near the close on Wednesday.
• Gold – Gold made a daily cycle low (DCL) into the 34-day Fibonacci step out which tested $1855 last Thursday. Gold is now correcting into the 6/10 New Moon – a hot CPI report early Thursday could generate a reversal.
• Silver –Silver closed above $28 on Monday which is bullish, but we are consolidating into the New Moon on Thursday.
• Bonds – Bonds traced out an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern on the hourly chart and broke higher to 159’06 before consolidating.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil made a new high for the year at $70.62 overnight Tuesday on its run into the 6/10 New Moon. Oil service companies like SLB are rotating into a leadership position.
• Dollar Index –The USD tested its S2 pivot support at 89.84 early Wednesday before bouncing to 90.20 in the evening – how the USD reacts after the CPI report is crucial to gold.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 6/10-6/11, the New Moon Timing Window.