All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 27, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The hourly SPX has been consolidating sideways since testing 4568 early on 11/22 and the VIX continues rolling over - this is short-term bullish. We still believe in holding unmargined shares of SPXS, SQQQ and TZA because we are intermediate-term bearish.  The SPX did test our target of 4563 Friday but failed to break down. The Friday after Thanksgiving has very positive seasonality and held up into the close. Bears thought that Monday could be amenable to a pullback but the SPX remained in its sideways consolidation which we view as short-term bullish. The continued meltdown in the VIX is short-term bullish. The coil pattern on the IWM from 11/16 appears to be short-term bullish. The 10-yr US rate continues to pullback and may be close to 5-waves down on the hourly chart which is short-term bullish for stocks. From an astro-finance perspective, the week into 11/21 was a major Turning Point Week and the SPX continued to hold up which is bullish. The bad 10-yr US bond auction and the bad 30-yr US bond auction last week argue for higher 10-yr US rates in the short term but that has not materialized yet. We've tried to keep a high percentage of cash in our portfolio this year and have just taken on short-term trades with our cash position. We've added shares of SPXS, SQQQ and TZA on rallies - we're hanging on to these short shares for more potential selling into mid-December. If we get a retest of the 10/27 low at SPX 4103 by early December, selling these shares would be optimal. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

11/27/23 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX rallied to 4560.62  on Monday which tested our 4563 target and then continued to trace out what appears to be a 4th wave correction into the close. The SPX needs a rally higher than SPX 4568 to finish a 5th wave higher from 10/27. The bullish case has the SPX working on finishing a 5-wave impulsive advance from 10/27 on Tuesday and the bearish case has the SPX finishing a Wave 5 of C of 2 correction on Tuesday after an EW 5-waves down from the July high on the daily chart. The key for the bullish case is for the IWM to take out its 11/16 high at 182 in a 5th wave that would be a bullish signal. We're taking the market one day at a time here and weighing the bullish and bearish technicals carefully. We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA shares on a retest of SPX 4260 if they are in profit territory or on a retest of SPX 4103 in mid-December. It will take an impulsive leg down below SPX 4100 to get us really short-term bearish into mid-December  Crude oil bottomed at $72.37 on 11/16 but appears to be working on an EW 5-waves down from 9/28 on the hourly chart which could make lower lows.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The US debt downgrade by Moody after the close on 11/10 and the global rise in long rates should reverse the SPX trend down by early December despite the recent rally in the bonds. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold tested $1937 on 11/10 and rallied to $2036 on Monday evening, 11/27. Silver may be breaking out of its multi-month downtrend line.

Stocks –  The SPX continued its sideways consolidation into Monday(4th wave) and the bears failed to break it down. We need a rally above 4568 early on Tuesday to finish wave 5 from 10/27.

Gold – Gold is testing $2037 on Monday's Full Moon but could see more gain into Comex option expiration on Wednesday. 

Silver – The bullion banks could not knock silver down below $24 by Monday's close and we are rallying above $25 Monday evening.

Bonds – Bonds rallied to 116'01 on Monday evening. 

Crude Oil -  Crude oil spiked to $76.26 on Monday's Full Moon and is correcting with a 3-wave pullback. 

Dollar Index – The USD declined to 103.07 on Monday which is bullish for the Pm sector.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 11/27-11/28.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - November 26, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: From early Wednesday, the SPX has traced out a sideways pattern into Friday's close. The SPX did test our target of 4563 Friday but failed to break down. The Friday after Thanksgiving has very positive seasonality and held up into the close. NVDA had a good earnings report but declined $12 on Wednesday - the bulls still kept the QQQ up which is short-term bullish. The bears again had a chance to take the market down on Friday but couldn't do it which is short-term bullish. We are watching the IWM carefully to see if the 3-wave bounce from 10/27 turns bullishly impulsive or just remains a Wave 2 bounce after 5-waves down from July on the daily chart - the later count is our short-term bearish bias. The 10-yr US rate broke to highs for the week at 4.492% - rates reversing higher is key to the bearish case in the short term. The bulls have ignored bad news so far in this blow off rally, but the poor 10-yr and 30-yr US bond auctions last week highlight the fact that rising rates is the biggest threat to stocks in the short term and is a bearish fundamental. From an astro-finance perspective, this week into 11/21 is a Turning Point Week and we could be finishing a Wave 2 correction higher after 5-waves down on the SPX daily. We believe that the bond market technicals are more important than the stock market technicals at this point. The bad 10-yr US bond auction and the bad 30-yr US bond auction last week argue for higher 10-yr US rates in the short term. The market bulls believe that a year-end stock market rally has already begun, however, we believe that the rally is corrective and we will see lower SPX lows by late November/early December as the US economy continues to weaken.  We've tried to keep a high percentage of cash in our portfolio this year and have just taken on short-term trades with our cash position. We've added shares of SPXS, SQQQ and TZA on rallies - we're hanging on to these short shares for more selling in late November/early December. If we get a retest of the 10/27 low at SPX 4103 by early December, selling these shares would be optimal. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

11/24/23 (Commentary for Friday) The SPX rallied to 4560 on Friday which tested our 4563 target and then continued to trace out what appears to be a 4th wave correction into the close. The SPX needs a rally higher than SPX 4568 to finish a Wave 2 upside correction. The bullish case has the SPX working on finishing a 5-wave impulsive advance from 10/27 on Friday and the bearish case has the SPX finishing a Wave 5 of C of 2 correction on Friday after an EW 5-waves down from the July high on the daily chart. The SPX ended a 4th wave of C correction early 11/16 and started a 5th wave of C that needs a spike above 4568 on Monday to finish the pattern. We're taking the market one day at a time here and weighing the bullish and bearish technicals carefully. We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA shares on a retest of SPX 4260 if they are in profit territory or on a retest of SPX 4103 in late November/early December. It will take an impulsive leg down below SPX 4100 to get us really short-term bearish into late November. The IWM may have already finished its Wave 2 correction higher on 11/15 and may have already started its pullback - this needs to be watched carefully by traders.  Crude oil bottomed at $72.37 on Thursday and has rallied in a bullish 5-waves.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The US debt downgrade by Moody after the close on 11/10 and the global rise in long rates should reverse the SPX trend down in late November/early December despite the recent rally in the bonds. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold tested $1937 on 11/10 and rallied to $2003 on Friday, 11/14. Gold may have made a short-term high on Tuesday, 11/21 at $2007.

Stocks –  The SPX continued its sideways action into Friday and the bears failed to break it down. We  need a rally above 4568 early Monday to finish the rally from 10/27.

Gold – Gold tagged $2012 on Tuesday but only declined in a 3-wave correction to $1987 which is bullish. 

Silver – Silver made highs for the week at $24.395 on the close of Friday.

Bonds – Bonds fell to 115'00 on Friday as the 10-yr US spiked to highs of the week. 

Crude Oil -  Crude oil corrected back to $75.18 on Friday. 

Dollar Index – The USD bounce looked corrective and a move below 103.17 looks likely by Monday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 11/27.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 22, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX tried to correct down today but the price action looked like a 4th wave correction that needs a higher high early Friday to finish a 5th wave higher. The large CBOE equity put/call ratio of 1.10 on Tuesday was a contrary bullish signal. The SPX did go above out target of 4563 and tested 4568.43 but failed to break down. The Friday after Thanksgiving has very positive seasonality and we could finish the 5th wave higher near the open. NVDA had a good earnings report but declined $12 on Wednesday - the bulls still kept the QQQ up which is short-term bullish. The bears had a chance to take the market down on Wednesday and couldn't do it which is short-term bullish. We are watching the IWM carefully to see if the 3-wave bounce from 10/27 turns bullishly impulsive or just remains a Wave 2 bounce after 5-waves down from July on the daily chart - the later count is our short-term bearish bias. The 10-yr US rate is close to finishing an EW a-b-c correction from 10/25 on the hourly chart and may have bottomed early today - reversing higher is key to the bearish case. The bulls have ignored bad news so far in this blow off rally, but the poor 10-yr and 30-yr US bond auctions last week highlight the fact that rising rates is the biggest threat to stocks in the short term and is a bearish fundamental. From an astro-finance perspective, this week into 11/21 is a Turning Point Week and we could be finishing a Wave 2 correction higher after 5-waves down on the SPX daily. We believe that the bond technicals are more important than the stock technicals at this point. The bad 10-yr US bond auction and the bad 30-yr US bond auction last week argue for higher 10-yr US rates in the short term. The market bulls believe that a year-end stock rally has already begun, however, we believe that the rally is corrective and we will see lower SPX lows by late November/early December as the US economy continues to weaken.  We've tried to keep a high percentage of cash in our portfolio this year and have just taken on short-term trades with our cash position. We've added shares of SPXS, SQQQ and TZA on rallies - we're hanging on to these short shares for more selling in late November/early December. If we get a retest of the 10/27 low at SPX 4103 by early December, selling these shares would be optimal. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

11/22/23 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX rallied to 4568 on Wednesday which is above our 4563 target and then traced out what appears to be a 4th wave correction into the close. The SPX needs a rally higher than SPX 4568 to finish a Wave 2 upside correction. The bullish case has the SPX working on finishing a 5-wave impulsive advance from 10/27 on Friday and the bearish case has the SPX finishing a Wave 5 of C of 2 correction on Friday after an EW 5-waves down from the July high on the daily chart. The SPX ended a 4th wave of C correction early 11/16 and started a 5th wave of C that ended on Monday. We're taking the market one day at a time here and weighing the bullish and bearish technicals carefully. We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA shares on a retest of SPX 4260 if they are in profit territory or on a retest of SPX 4103 in late November/early December. It will take an impulsive leg down below SPX 4100 to get us really short-term bearish into late November. The IWM may have already finished its Wave 2 correction higher on 11/15 and may have already started its pullback - this needs to be watched carefully by traders.  Crude oil bottomed at $72.37 on Thursday and has rallied in a bullish 5-waves.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The US debt downgrade by Moody after the close on 11/10 and the global rise in long rates should reverse the SPX trend down in late November/early December despite the recent rally in the bonds. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold tested $1937 on 11/10 and rallied to $2007 on Tuesday. Gold may have made a short-term high on Tuesday.

Stocks –  The SPX exceeded our price target at 4568 early Wednesday but the price action into the close looks like a 4th wave correction. We may need a rally above 4568 early Friday to finish the rally from 10/27.

Gold – Gold tagged $2007 on Tuesday but only declined in a 3-wave correction so far to $1987. 

Silver – Silver tested $24.10 on Tuesday which could be the high for the week.

Bonds – Bonds are at 116'05 Wednesday evening but may be rolling over. 

Crude Oil -  Crude oil rallied to $76.6 on Wednesday and looks bullish. 

Dollar Index – The USD rallied to 104.18 early Wednesday but is declining overnight to 103.73.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 11/20-11/21 and 11/24.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 21, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX and NDX both gave us "inside days" on Tuesday. However, Tuesday is a turning point day in our work and we believe that we are seeing a reversal down led by the IWM. The NVDA earnings are being sold by the market overnight and we could see a gap-down open on Wednesday. This is a holiday week and volume should be thinning out around the Thanksgiving holiday. The bears have a chance to take the market down on Wednesday and how that evolves will be enlightening for the potential of a large pullback. We saw intense euphoric call buying during the day on Monday on the ISEE call/put option exchange. The FOMC minutes on Tuesday were a non-event. Selling the NVDA earnings after the close on Tuesday could give traders an excuse to sell.  Our 5th wave target of SPX 4562 was tested on Monday and that could be close enough - the Tuesday after a monthly expiration is a turning point day and the market looked frothy enough from several measures on Monday/Tuesday. Just a 3-wave correction will be bullish but an EW 5-waves down on the hourly will be bearish. A selloff into Thanksgiving has happened before and the SPX feels overripe for some kind of retracement here. We are watching the IWM carefully to see if the 3-wave bounce from 10/27 turns impulsive or just remains a Wave 2 bounce after 5-waves down from July - the later count is our short-term bearish bias. The 10-yr US rate is close to finishing an EW a-b-c correction from 10/25 on the hourly chart and is ready to reverse higher - reversing higher is key to the bearish case. The bulls have ignored bad news so far in this blow off rally, but the poor 10-yr and 30-yr US bond auctions last week highlight the fact that rising rates is the biggest threat to stocks in the short term and is a bearish fundamental. From an astro-finance perspective, this week into 11/21 is a Turning Point Week and we could be seeing a Wave 2 correction higher after 5-waves down on the SPX daily. We believe that the bond technicals are more important than the stock technicals at this point. The bad 10-yr US bond auction and the bad 30-yr US bond auction last week argue for higher 10-yr US rates in the short term. The market bulls believe that a year-end stock rally has already begun, however, we believe that the rally is corrective and we will see lower SPX lows by late November/early December as the US economy continues to weaken.  We've tried to keep a high percentage of cash in our portfolio this year and have just taken on short-term trades with our cash position. We've added shares of SPXS, SQQQ and TZA on rallies - we're hanging on to these short shares for more selling in late November/early December. If we get a retest of the 10/27 low at SPX 4103 by early December, selling these shares would be optimal. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

11/21/23 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX rallied to 4557 on Monday before correcting into the close and that may be close enough to our target of SPX 4563. The SPX may have finished a 5th wave up into the 11/20-11/21 turn window to finish a Wave 2 upside correction. The bullish case has the SPX working on finishing a 5-wave impulsive advance from 10/27 and the bearish case has the SPX  finishing a Wave 5 of C of 2 correction on Monday after an EW 5-waves down from the July high. The SPX ended a 4th wave of C correction early Thursday and started a 5th wave of C that ended on Monday. We're taking the market one day at a time here and weighing the bullish and bearish technicals carefully. We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA shares on a retest of SPX 4260 if they are in profit territory or on a retest of SPX 4103 in late November/early December. It will take an impulsive leg down below SPX 4100 to get us really short-term bearish into late November. The IWM may have already finished its Wave 2 correction higher on 11/15 and may have already started its pullback - this needs to be watched carefully by traders.  Crude oil bottomed at $72.37 on Thursday and has rallied in a bullish 5-waves.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The US debt downgrade by Moody after the close on 11/10 and the global rise in long rates should reverse the market trend down in late November/early December despite the recent rally in the bonds. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold tested $1937 on 11/10 and rallied to $2007 on Tuesday. Gold could see an important short-term high on Monday/Tuesday.

Stocks –  The SPX ended a 4th wave correction early Thursday and started a 5th Wave of C higher that may have peaked on Monday at SPX 4557 - this may have ended its Wave 2 upside correction higher after 5-waves down from July.

Gold – Gold tagged $2007 on Tuesday but only declined in a 3-wave correction so far. 

Silver – Silver tested $24.10 on Tuesday which could be the high for the week.

Bonds – Bonds are at 115'27 Tuesday evening but may be rolling over. 

Crude Oil -  Crude oil made a short-term low at $72.37 last Thursday and rallied in 5-waves higher on the hourly chart - this is bullish. 

Dollar Index – The USD continued to make lower lows to 103.18 on Tuesday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 11/20-11/21 and 11/24.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 20, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX rallied close to our SPX 4563 target and then declined into the close. We saw intense euphoric call buying during the day on the ISEE call/put option exchange. Still, with NVDA's earnings on the close Tuesday, the QQQ could hold the market up into the FOMC minutes tomorrow. Our 5th wave target is SPX 4562 and we could reach that early Tuesday - the Tuesday after a monthly expiration is a turning point day and the market looked frothy today from several measures. Just a 3-wave correction in the coming week will be bullish but an EW 5-waves down on the hourly will be bearish. A selloff into Thanksgiving has happened before and the SPX feels overripe for some kind of retracement here. We are watching the IWM carefully to see if the 3-wave bounce from 10/27 turns impulsive or just remains a Wave 2 bounce after 5-waves down from July - the later count is our short-term bearish bias. The 10-yr US rate is close to finishing an EW a-b-c correction from 10/25 on the hourly chart and is ready to reverse higher - reversing higher is key to the bearish case. The bulls have ignored bad news so far in this blow off rally, but the poor 10-yr and 30-yr US bond auctions last week highlight the fact that rising rates is the biggest threat to stocks in the short term and is a bearish fundamental. From an astro-finance perspective, this week into 11/20 is a Turning Point Week and we could be seeing a Wave 2 correction higher after 5-waves down on the SPX daily. We believe that the bond technicals are more important than the stock technicals at this point. The bad 10-yr US bond auction and the bad 30-yr US bond auction last week argue for higher 10-yr US rates in the short term. The market bulls believe that a year-end stock rally has already begun, however, we believe that the rally is corrective and we will see lower SPX lows by late November/early December as the US economy continues to weaken. In the short-term, we are now looking for a final thrust higher into 11/20-11/21 that will finish a Wave 2 higher after 5-waves down from July for the SPX.  We've tried to keep a high percentage of cash in our portfolio this year and have just taken on short-term trades with our cash position. We've added shares of SPXS, SQQQ and TZA on rallies - we're hanging on to these short shares for more selling in late November/early December. If we get a retest of the 10/27 low at SPX 4103 by early December, selling these shares would be optimal. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

11/20/23 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX rallied to 4557 before correcting into the close but our target of SPX 4563 could be tested early Tuesday if NVDA holds up for its earnings release afterhours - the previous release was quite explosive. Our SPX target is still 4563 going into our 11/20-11/21 turn window to finish a Wave 2 upside correction. The bullish case has the SPX working on finishing a 5-wave impulsive advance from 10/27 and the bearish case has the SPX working on finishing a Wave 5 of C of 2 correction after an EW 5-waves down from the July high. The SPX ended a 4th wave of C correction early Thursday and started a 5th wave of C that could test 4563 by Monday/Tuesday. We're taking the market one day at a time here and weighing the bullish and bearish technicals carefully. We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA shares on a retest of SPX 4260 if they are in profit territory or on a retest of SPX 4103 in late November/early December. It will take an impulsive leg down below SPX 4100 to get us really short-term bearish into late November. The IWM may have already finished its Wave 2 correction higher on 11/15 and may have already started its pullback.  Crude oil bottomed at $72.37 on Thursday and has rallied in a bullish 5-waves.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The US debt downgrade by Moody after the close on 11/10 and the global rise in long rates should reverse the market trend down in late November/early December despite the recent rally in the bonds. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold tested $1937 on 11/10 and is rallying to test $1993 on Monday evening. Gold could see an important short-term high on Monday/Tuesday.

Stocks –  The SPX ended a 4th wave correction early Thursday and started a 5th Wave of C higher that could test 4563 into the high-energy 11/20-11/21 turn window - this could end its Wave 2 upside correction higher after 5-waves down from July.

Gold – Gold is testing $1993 on Monday evening.   

Silver – Silver stocks are trying to lead silver higher here. Silver could make a short-term high on Monday/Tuesday.

Bonds – Bonds are rallying to 116'6 Monday evening but the 10-yr US rate is close to finishing an EW a-b-c correction. 

Crude Oil -  Crude oil made a short-term low at $72.37 last Thursday and rallied in 5-waves higher on the hourly chart - this is bullish. 

Dollar Index – The USD continues to make lower lows at 103.23 Monday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 11/20-11/21 and 11/24.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - November 19, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX entered monthly expiration on Friday and the market coiled for a 5th wave higher to either finish an EW a-b-c correction from 10/27 or a bullish impulsive 5-waves higher. Our 5th wave higher target is SPX 4562 and we could reach that Monday/Tuesday - the Tuesday after a monthly expiration is a turning point day. Just a 3-wave correction in the coming week will be bullish but an EW 5-waves down on the hourly will be bearish. We are watching the IWM carefully to see if the 3-wave bounce from 10/27 turns impulsive or just remains a Wave 2 bounce after 5-waves down from July - the later count is our short-term bias. The IWM appears to have peaked in a 3-wave rally from 10/27 which the bulls argue is an EW 1-2, i-ii pattern to the upside. The bearish interpretation is that the IWM has completed a Wave 2 rally after doing a 5-waves down on the daily chart from July. The 10-yr US rate has finished an EW a-b-c correction from 10/25 on the hourly chart and is ready to reverse higher - reversing higher is key to the bearish case. The bulls have ignored bad news so far in this blow off rally, but the poor 10-yr and 30-yr US bond auctions last week highlight the fact that rising rates is the biggest threat to stocks in the short term and is a bearish fundamental. From an astro-finance perspective, this week into 11/20 is a Turning Point Week and we could be seeing a Wave 2 correction higher after 5-waves down on the SPX daily. We believe that the bond technicals are more important than the stock technicals at this point. The bad 10-yr US bond auction and the bad 30-yr US bond auction last week argue for higher 10-yr US rates in the short term. The market bulls believe that a year-end stock rally has already begun, however, we believe that the rally is corrective and we will see lower SPX lows by late November/early December as the US economy continues to weaken. In the short-term, we are now looking for a final thrust higher into 11/17-11/20 that will finish a Wave 2 higher after 5-waves down from July for the SPX.  We've tried to keep a high percentage of cash in our portfolio this year and have just taken on short-term trades with our cash position. We've added shares of SPXS, SQQQ and TZA on rallies - we're hanging on to these short shares for more selling in late November/early December. If we get a retest of the 10/27 low at SPX 4103 by early December, selling these shares would be optimal. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

11/19/23 (Commentary for Sunday) The SPX looks to have started started a 5th wave of C that could target 4563 into 11/20-11/21 to finish a Wave 2 upside correction. The bullish case has the SPX working on finishing a 5-wave impulsive advance from 10/27 and the bearish case has the SPX working on finishing a 5th Wave of C of 2 correction after an EW 5-waves down from the July high. The SPX ended a 4th wave of C correction early Thursday and started a 5th wave of C that could test 4563 by Monday/Tuesday. We're taking the market one day at a time here and weighing the bullish and bearish technicals carefully. We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA shares on a retest of SPX 4260 if they are in profit territory or on a retest of SPX 4103 in late November/early December. It will take an impulsive leg down below SPX 4100 to get us really short-term bearish in late November. The IWM may have already finished its Wave 2 correction higher on 11/15 and may have already started its pullback.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The US debt downgrade by Moody after the close on 11/10 and the global rise in long rates should reverse the market trend down in late November/early December despite the recent rally in the bonds. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold tested $1937 on 11/10 and rallied impulsively to $1991 on Thursday morning. Gold could see an important short-term high on Monday/Tuesday.

Stocks –  The SPX ended a 4th wave correction early Thursday and started a 5th Wave of C higher that could test 4563 into the high-energy 11/20-11/21 turn window that could end its Wave 2 upside correction higher after 5-waves down from July.

Gold – Gold has a chance to make a short-term high above $1991 on Monday/Tuesday.   

Silver – Silver stocks are trying to lead silver higher here. Silver could make a short-term high on Monday/Tuesday.

Bonds – Bonds are holding 115'16 Sunday evening but the 10-yr US rate may have finished an EW a-b-c correction. The bonds could make a higher high on Monday/Tuesday before moving back down.

Crude Oil -  Crude oil made its low for the week one day after the 11/13-11/15 New Moon Timing Window at $72.37. We would consider trading XOM long on a test of its 200-dma. 

Dollar Index – The USD may have made a tradable low at 103.81 on Friday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 11/20-11/21 and 11/24.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 16, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The inflation reports came in cooler than expected but the SPX undercut its open to finish a small EW a-b-c correction from early Wednesday. The SPX appears ready to rally in Wave 5 of C to test SPX 4563 on Friday. The IWM appears to have peaked in a 3-wave rally from 10/27 which the bulls argue is an EW 1-2, i-ii pattern to the upside. The bearish interpretation is that the IWM has completed a Wave 2 rally after doing a 5-waves down on the daily chart from July. The 10-yr US rate has finished an EW a-b-c correction from 10/25 and is ready to reverse higher. The bulls have ignored bad news so far in this blow off rally, but the poor 10-yr and 30-yr US bond auctions last week highlight the fact that rising rates is the biggest threat to stocks in the short term. From an astro-finance perspective, this week into 11/20 is a Turning Point Week and we could be seeing a Wave 2 correction higher after 5-waves down on the SPX daily. We believe that the bond technicals are more important than the stock technicals at this point. The bad 10-yr US bond auction and the bad 30-yr US bond auction last week argue for higher 10-yr US rates in the short term. The market bulls believe that a year-end stock rally has begun, however, we believe that the rally is corrective and we will see lower SPX lows by late November/early December as the US economy continues to weaken. In the short-term, we are now looking for a final thrust higher into 11/17-11/20 that will finish a Wave 2 higher after 5-waves down from July for the SPX.  We've tried to keep a high percentage of cash in our portfolio this year and have just taken on short-term trades with our cash position. We've added shares of SPXS, SQQQ and TZA on rallies - we're hanging on to these short shares for more selling in late November/December. If we get a retest of the 10/27 low at SPX 4103 by early December, selling these shares would be optimal. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

11/16/23 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX finished a small 4th wave correction from early Wednesday and has started a 5th wave of C that could target 4563 into 11/17-11/20 to finish a Wave 2 upside correction. The SPX may correct more into early Friday before a final thrust higher on 11/17-11/20. The SPX gave us just a 3-wave pullback after Wednesday's PPI report and that argues for at least another another leg higher into Friday/Monday, 11/17-11/20 which is a high-energy turn date. We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA shares on a retest of SPX 4260 if they are in profit territory or on a retest of SPX 4103 in late November/early December. It will take an impulsive leg down below SPX 4100 to get us really short-term bearish in late November. The IWM may have finished its Wave 2 correction higher Wednesday and it may have started its pullback. The SPX ended a 4th wave correction on Thursday and may have started its Wave 5 of C higher. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The US debt downgrade by Moody after the close on Friday and the global rise in long rates should reverse the market trend down in late November/early December despite the recent rally in the bonds. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold tested $1937 on 11/10 and rallied impulsively to $1991 on Thursday morning. The weaker USD and bond rally is boosting gold and silver this week..

Stocks –  The SPX ended a 4th wave correction from early Wednesday and may have started a 5th Wave of C higher that could test 4563 into the high-energy 11/17-11/20 turn window that could end its Wave 2 upside correction higher after 5-waves down from July.

Gold – Gold bounced from Friday and tested $1991 on Thursday.   

Silver – Silver rallied from $21.925 early Monday to test $24.17 and its downtrend line early Thursday.

Bonds – Bonds are holding 115'08 Thursday evening but the 10-yr US rate may have finished ab EW a-b-c correction.

Dollar Index – The USD tested 104 on Wednesday and then bounced to 104.39 Thursday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 11/13-11/15 and 11/17-11/20.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 15, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The PPI came in cooler than expected and the SPX continued its rally. However, the SPX lost its upside momentum and actually filled its opening gap. The bulls wanted to see more expanded breadth like yesterday but the IWM pulled back today and may have finished a Wave 2 rally after an EW 5-wave decline on the daily from July. The bulls have ignored bad news so far in this blow off rally, but the poor 10-yr and 30-yr US bond auctions last week highlight the fact that rising rates is the biggest threat to stocks in the short term. From an astro-finance perspective, this week into 11/20 is a Turning Point Week and we could be seeing a Wave 2 correction higher after 5-waves down on the SPX daily. We believe that the bond technicals are more important than the stock technicals at this point. The bad 10-yr US bond auction and the bad 30-yr US bond auction last week argue for higher 10-yr US rates in the short term. The market bulls believe that a year-end stock rally has begun, however, we believe that the rally is corrective and we will see lower SPX lows by late November/early December as the US economy continues to weaken. In the short-term, we are now looking for at least a 3-wave pullback in the SPX into Thursday before a final thrust higher on 11/17-11/20.  We've tried to keep a high percentage of cash in our portfolio this year and have just taken on short-term trades with our cash position. We've added shares of SPXS, SQQQ and TZA on rallies - we're hanging on to these short shares for more selling in late November/December. If we get a retest of the 10/27 low at SPX 4103 by early December, selling these shares would be optimal. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

11/15/23 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX gave us another gap higher after the PPI report early Wednesday , but that gap got filled. The SPX may correct more into early Thursday before a final thrust higher on 11/17-11/20. The close above SPX 4400 and the weekly downtrend line on 11/10 looked short-term bullish for the SPX, but we may be finding resistance around 4521. The Option Premium Ratio gave us three Sell Signals on 11/2, 11/3 and 11/7 which argue for a pullback on Monday/Tuesday or Wednesday. Just a 3-wave pullback after Wednesday's PPI report will argue for at least another another leg higher into Friday, 11/17-11/20 which is a high-energy turn date. We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA shares on a retest of SPX 4260 if they are in profit territory or on a retest of SPX 4103 in late November/early December. It will take an impulsive leg down below SPX 4100 to get us really short-term bearish in late November. We looked for a pullback in the SPX to start by Wednesday and we may have gotten that. The IWM may have finished its Wave 2 correction higher today. How the SPX reacts early Thursday will set the short-term trend. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The US debt downgrade by Moody after the close on Friday and the global rise in long rates should reverse the market trend down in  late November/early December despite the recent rally in the bonds. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold tested $1937 on Friday and rallied impulsively to $1975 Wednesday morning. The weaker USD is boosting gold and silver this week..

Stocks –  The SPX gave us an EW 5-wave rally on the hourly chart from Friday into the 11/13-11/15 New Moon Timing Window. The PPI report was cooler than expected but the opening up gap on the SPX got filled today and we have started a pullback..

Gold – Gold bounced from Friday and tested $1975 early Wednesday in the 11/13-11/15 New Moon Timing Window.   

Silver – Silver rallied from $21.925 early Monday to $23.72 early Wednesday.

Bonds – Bonds are holding 114'23 Wednesday evening after the cooler-than-expected PPI report.

Dollar Index – The USD tested 104 after the cooler-than-expected PPI report and bounced to 104.51 Wednesday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 11/13-11/15, the New Moon Timing Window.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 14, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The CPI inflation report early Tuesday came in weaker than expected and the SPX exploded higher with expanded market breadth. The bulls wanted to see expanding market breadth and they got it today. The bulls have ignored bad news so far in this blow off rally - the Moody US debt downgrade Friday after the close was broadly ignored on Monday. With the poor 10-yr and 30-yr US bond auctions last week, rising rates is the biggest threat to stocks in the short term. Just a 3-wave pullback into mid-week will argue for another leg higher in the SPX and NDX. The $TRIN spiked to 2.4 early Tuesday as the bears tried to short the SPX hard but the market ran over them. The SPX continued to rally into the 11/13-11/14 New Moon Timing Window, however, a hotter than expected PPI report early Wednesday could bring a pullback to this overheated market. How the pullback sub-divides down will tell us a lot - just a 3-wave pullback into Wednesday/Thursday would be bullish for higher SPX highs. We believe that the bond technicals are more important than the stock technicals at this point. The bad 10-yr US bond auction and the bad 30-yr US bond auction last week argue for higher 10-yr US rates in the short term. Tuesday, 11/7, was a 3-star critical reversal day and we may have seen the short-term high in the Monday/Tuesday New Moon Timing Window. The market bulls believe that a year-end stock rally has begun, however, we believe that the rally is corrective and we will see lower SPX lows by late November/early December as the US economy continues to weaken. The big stock rally the last two weeks was ignited by a vicious short covering rally in the bond futures which may have ended on Friday. The SPX traced out a 5-wave rally from 10/27 to 11/13 and that could be the Wave A of a large EW a-b-c correction into late November. In the short-term, we are now looking for at least a 3-wave pullback in the SPX into Wednesday. The time spiral that caused the damage into 10/27/23 was from the 9/11/01 panic down day, but the stock market was actually shut down from 9/11-9/21 so that actually gave us some uncertainty in the timing of the next down leg - it could start Monday/Tuesday if the 3-star critical reversal day for the SPX landed on today. We've tried to keep a high percentage of cash in our portfolio this year and have just taken on short-term trades with our cash position. We've added shares of SPXS, SQQQ and TZA on rallies - we're hanging on to these short shares for more selling in late November/December. If we get a retest of the 10/27 low at SPX 4103 by early December, selling these shares would be optimal. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

11/14/23 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX gave us another gap and go day higher after a cooler than expected CPI report but the PPI inflation report early Wednesday is now in focus. The close above the weekly downtrend line from July looks short-term bullish for the SPX. The Option Premium Ratio gave us three Sell Signals on 11/2, 11/3 and 11/7 which argue for a pullback on Monday/Tuesday. Just a 3-wave pullback after Wednesday's CPI report will argue for at least another another leg higher into Friday, 11/17 which is a high-energy turn date. We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA shares on a retest of SPX 4260 if they are in profit territory or on a retest of SPX 4103 in late November/early December. It will take an impulsive leg down below SPX 4100 to get us really short-term bearish in late November. We looked for a pullback in the SPX to start by Monday/Tuesday and we may have gotten that. How the market reacts to the PPI report early Wednesday will set the short-term trend. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The US debt downgrade by Moody after the close on Friday and the global rise in long rates should reverse the market trend down in  late November/early December despite the recent rally in the bonds. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold tested $1937 on Friday and is bouncing to $1971 Tuesday evening. The weaker USD is boosting gold and silver this week..

Stocks –  The SPX gave us an EW 5-wave rally on the hourly chart from Friday into the Monday/Tuesday New Moon Timing Window. The PPI report early Wednesday could bring a pullback.

Gold – The COTS came in negative for gold again on 11/7 and we saw that play out into Friday's test of $1936. However, gold bounced from Friday and tested $1971 in the Monday/Tuesday New Moon Timing Window. Still, the Israeli-Hamas war could be the catalyst that drives gold to an ATH.   

Silver – After Monday's New Moon, silver bounced hard to $23.28 on Tuesday.

Bonds – Bonds are holding 115'017 Tuesday evening after the cooler-than-expected CPI report.

Dollar Index – The USD tested 104 after the cooler-than-expected CPI report.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 11/13-11/14.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 13, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX has given us an EW 5-waves up from Thursday's close on the hourly chart and an EW 5-waves up on the daily chart from 10/27 - we will now look for a pullback early Tuesday which includes the CPI inflation report. Bulls ignored the Moody US debt downgrade today which we interpret as short-sided. With the poor 10-yr and 30-yr US bond auctions last week, rising rates is the biggest threat to stocks in the short term. Just a 3-wave pullback into mid-week will argue for another leg higher in the SPX and NDX. The $TRIN-5 closed again above 6.0 (oversold) which is short-term bullish. On the bearish side, the SPX traced out an EW 5-wave higher on the daily chart from 10/27 which argues for a pullback on Monday which may have started. How the pullback sub-divides down will tell us a lot - just a 3-wave pullback into Tuesday/Wednesday would be bullish for higher SPX highs. We believe that the bond technicals are more important than the stock technicals at this point. The bad 10-yr US bond auction and the bad 30-yr US bond auction last week argue for higher 10-yr US rates in the short term. Tuesday, 11/7, was a 3-star critical reversal day and we may have seen the short-term high on Monday. The markets bulls believe that a year-end stock rally has begun, however, we believe that the rally is corrective and we will see lower SPX lows by late November/early December as the US economy continues to weaken. The big stock rally the last two weeks was ignited by a vicious short covering rally in the bond futures which may have ended on Friday. The SPX traced out a 5-wave rally from 10/27 to 11/13 and that could be the Wave A of a large EW a-b-c correction into late November. In the short-term, we are now looking for at least a 3-wave pullback in the SPX into Wednesday. The time spiral that caused the damage into 10/27/23 was from the 9/11/01 panic down day, but the stock market was actually shut down from 9/11-9/21 so that actually gave us some uncertainty in the timing of the next down leg - it could start Monday/Tuesday if the 3-star critical reversal day for the SPX landed on today. We've tried to keep a high percentage of cash in our portfolio this year and have just taken on short-term trades with our cash position. We've added shares of SPXS, SQQQ and TZA on rallies - we're hanging on to these shares for more selling in late November/December. If we get a retest of the 10/27 low at SPX 4103 by late November, selling these shares would be optimal. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

11/13/23 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX squeezed out a higher high this morning which could have ended both an EW 5-waves higher on the hourly chart from Friday and 5-waves up on the daily chart. The close above the weekly downtrend line from July also looks short-term bullish. The Option Premium Ratio gave us three Sell Signals on 11/2, 11/3 and 11/7 which argue for a pullback on Monday/Tuesday. Just a 3-wave pullback into Wednesday will argue for at least another another leg higher into Friday, 11/7 which is a high-energy turn date. We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA shares on a retest of SPX 4260 if they are in profit territory or on a retest of SPX 4103 in late November/early December. It will take an impulsive leg down below SPX 4100 to get us really short-term bearish in late November. We looked for a pullback in the SPX to start by Monday/Tuesday and we may have gotten that. How the market reacts to the CPI report early Tuesday will set the short-term trend. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The US debt downgrade by Moody Friday after the close and the global rise in long rates should stretch the SPX and NDX decline into late November/early December despite the recent rally in the bonds. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold tested $1937 on Friday and is bouncing to $1949 Monday evening. We are looking for a better time for gold this week.

Stocks –  The SPX gave us an EW 5-wave rally on the hourly chart from Friday and may have started a pullback. The CPI report early Tuesday will set the short-term trend.

Gold – The COTS came in negative for gold again on 11/7 and we saw that play out into Friday's test of $1936. However, gold bounced from Friday and tested $1949 Monday evening. Still, the Israeli-Hamas war could be the catalyst that drives gold to an ATH.   

Silver – After 5-waves down on the hourly chart, silver is bouncing to $22.41 Monday evening.

Bonds – Bonds are holding 113'09 before the Tuesday morning CPI report.

Dollar Index – The USD is holding up around 105.70 Monday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 11/13-11/14.