All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - May 25, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX rally from Friday continued on Wednesday and our take remains a run up to SPX 4100-4200 into Friday. Our bias is that we made a SPX trading low on 5/13 and after a rally on Monday, the SPX pulled back into Tuesday’s turning point window before reversing higher into the close. The SPX tested the .382 retracement of the post-Covid rally from 3/23/20 at SPX 3810 on Friday and that appears to be a trading low that started a bear market rally that could test SPX 4200 by Fri – seven down weeks in a row for the DJIA needs an upside correction. Bitcoin is working sideways overnight with no clear bias for the SPX early Thursday. The bond market rallied to another high today as the 10-yr US rate fell to 2.708% on a weaker than expected Durable Goods report. Crude oil gave us EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart last week and just a corrective bounce so far this week that loos weak. The oil stocks rallied hard today into the close, but the short-term trend of crude oil is in doubt here. The USD gave us a corrective bounce today – both the Yen and Euro are poised to move higher.  

5/25/22 (Commentary for Wednesday) A string of weaker than expected US economic reports gave bonds a bounce early and stocks rallying into the close. A move above SPX 4000 could give a short-covering kick to 4100. Did the SPX make an important low last Friday or not? Our bias is for a SPX rally to 4200 by this weekend. Bitcoin is working sideways overnight and that is a neutral tell for the SPX so far on Wednesday’s open. Monday was the 55-day Fibonacci step out from the important high on 3/29 and we may have seen the low for the first leg down in the 2022/2023 Bear Market on expiration Friday. Crude oil gave us a 5-wave decline on the hourly chart last week and just a 3-wave bounce so far which is BEARISH, and the USD gave us 5-waves down on the hourly chart for a SELL SIGNAL which is bullish for the Yen and Euro. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities – we also hold some FXY (Yen) shares.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – We may have seen the end of the first leg down in the 2022-2023 Bear Market on Friday but that hasn’t been confirmed yet. The SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low hits and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold is close to an intermediate cycle low that should bottom by the Comex Gold option expiration on 5/25 if it didn’t already at $1785 early on 5/16.

• Stocks – The SPX saw a volatile today but ended the session with highs for the day in the last hour. Our bias is for a run higher to SPX 4100-4200 by the holiday weekend. A break about SPX 4000 could get a boost from short covering.
• Gold – After Mars changed sign, gold gave us a $30 day decline into Wednesday and tested $1838 in the 5/24-5/25 Comex gold option expiration. We may have already seen the gold ICL at $1785 on 5/16.
• Silver – Silver pulled back to $21.61 into the Comex silver option expiration on 5/25.
• Bonds – Bonds spiked to a multi-week high at 142’22 while the 10-yr US rate fell to 2.708%.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil fell in 5-waves on the hourly with just a corrective bounce so far that looks short-term bearish. The XLE had a good rally into the close and tested 86.2 – highs for the year.
• Dollar Index – The USD bounced today, but the Yen and Euro are still poised for a run higher.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for the next week is 5/24.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - May 24, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX ended Monday’s session with an “Ending Diagonal” pattern that was shorted by some savvy traders. Today, the SPX gapped down and tested its S2 pivot support at 3880 before rallying late to close its opening gap after some comments from Fed Chairman Powell. Our take is that we made a SPX trading low on 5/13 and after a rally on Monday, the SPX pulled back into today’s turning point window before reversing higher into the close. The SPX tested the .382 retracement of the post-Covid rally from 3/23/20 at SPX 3810 on Friday and that appears to be a trading low that started a bear market rally that could test SPX 4200 by Fri – seven down weeks in a row for the DJIA needs an upside correction. Bitcoin is rallying overnight and tested its R1 pivot resistance at 28811 and could give us a positive bias early Wednesday for the SPX. The bond market rallied to a multi-week high today as the 10-yr US rate fell to 2.71% on weaker than expected home sales. Crude oil gave us EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart last week and just a corrective bounce so far that looks weak. The USD continues to sub-divide down impulsively – both the Yen and Euro are poised to move higher.  

5/24/22 (Commentary for Tuesday) After Monday’s stock rally day, the SPX pulled back to 3880 into our turn window today before reversing higher into the close. The SPX gave us 5-waves up from Friday with an ending diagonal today into the close on Monday that was ripe for shorting. Did the SPX make an important low last Friday or not? Our bias is for a SPX rally to 4200 by this weekend. Bitcoin is rallying above 30000 overnight and that is a positive tell for the SPX on Wednesday’s open. Monday was the 55-day Fibonacci step out from the important high on 3/29 and we may have seen the low for the first leg down in the 2022/2023 Bear Market on expiration Friday. Crude oil gave us a 5-wave decline on the hourly chart last week and just a 3-wave bounce so far which is BEARISH, and the USD gave us 5-waves down on the hourly chart for a SELL SIGNAL which is bullish for the Yen and Euro. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities – we also hold some FXY (Yen) shares.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – We may have seen the end of the first leg down in the 2022-2023 Bear Market on Friday but that hasn’t been confirmed yet. The SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low hits and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold is close to an intermediate cycle low that should bottom by the Comex Gold option expiration on 5/25 if it didn’t already at $1785 early on 5/16.

• Stocks – The SPX pulled back correctively into Tuesday and then finished the day by filling the opening down gap. Our bias is for a run higher to SPX 4100-4200 by the holiday weekend.
• Gold – As Mars ingresses, gold made a high at $1869 Tuesday and could now correct into the 5/24-5/25 Comex gold option expiration. We may have seen the gold ICL at $1785 on 5/16.
• Silver – Silver tested $22.21 on Tuesday and should now correct into Comex option expiration on 5/24-5/25.
• Bonds – Bonds spiked to a multi-week high at 142’16 while the 10-yr US rate fell to 2.71%.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil fell in 5-waves on the hourly with just a corrective bounce which looks short-term bearish. The XLE is too far above its 200-dma to buy on dips here for us.
• Dollar Index – The USD continues to decline impulsively– the Yen and Euro are poised for a run higher.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for the next week is 5/24.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - May 23, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX followed up its Friday reversal with a solid rally day on Monday. Our bias was that the 55-day Fibonacci step out from 3/29 would end the first wave down of the 2022 Bear Market and it appears to have come in a few hours early on Friday’s expiration day. The SPX tested the .382 retracement of the post-Covid rally from 3/23 at SPX 3810 on Friday and that appears to be a trading low. We may have started a bear market rally that could test SPX 4200 by Fri – seven down weeks in a row for the DJIA needs an upside correction.  Tuesday is a turning point day in our work. If we get just a 3-wave corrective pullback to SPX 3910, we might buy a few shares of AAPL for a bounce into the holiday weekend. Bitcoin is rolling over after hours and will give us a negative bias early Tuesday for the SPX. The bond market continues to consolidate sideways from Thursday. Crude oil gave us EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart last week and just a 3-wave bounce so far which looks weak. For the USD, we got a 5-wave decline below 103.194 which is also a SELL SIGNAL and just a weak bounce – both the Yen and Euro are poised to move higher.  

5/23/22 (Commentary for Monday) The 55-day Fibonacci step out low evidently fell on late Friday for the SPX and we may have made a trading low on Friday. The SPX gave us 5-waves up from Friday with an ending diagonal today into the close. Led by Bitcoin, the E-Mini is moving down overnight and the SPX could test 3910 early Tuesday – just a 3-wave correction into tomorrow’s turn window would get us to buy a few AAPL trading shares for a run into the holiday weekend.  Bitcoin is rolling over to test 28777 overnight and that is a negative tell for the SPX on Tuesday’s open. Monday was the 55-day Fibonacci step out from the important high on 3/29 and we may have seen the low for the first leg down in the 2022/2023 Bear Market on expiration Friday. Crude oil gave us a 5-wave decline on the hourly chart last week and just a 3-wave bounce so far which is BEARISH, and the USD gave us 5-waves down on the hourly chart for a SELL SIGNAL which is bullish for the Yen and Euro. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities – we also hold some FXY (Yen) shares.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – We may have seen the end of the first leg down in the 2022-2023 Bear Market on Friday. The SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low hits and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold is close to an intermediate cycle low that should bottom by the 5/25 Comex Gold Expiration if it didn’t already at $1785 early Monday.

• Stocks – Our bias is for a SPX low on Monday/Tuesday that could be scary followed by a strong reversal into the holiday weekend.
• Gold – As the Mars ingress approaches on Tuesday, gold made a high at $1864 early Monday and could now correct into the 5/24-5/25 Comex gold option expiration. We may have seen the gold ICL at $1785 on 5/16.
• Silver – Silver tested $22.20 early Monday and should now correct into Comex option expiration on 5/24-5/25.
• Bonds – Bonds have been correcting sideways since Thursday.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil fell in 5-waves on the hourly with just a 3-wave bounce which looks short-term bearish. The XLE is too far above its 200-dma to buy on dips here for us.
• Dollar Index – The USD gave us an EW 5-wave decline on its hourly chart for a SELL SIGNAL – the Yen and Euro are poised for a run higher.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for the next week is 5/24.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - May 22, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  We had a huge whipsaw day on Friday’s expiration and the SPX was actually squeezed to a positive value.  Are we seeing a “bear trap” here in the SPX or could we see the “whoosh down” on Monday on the 55-day Fibonacci step out from the important SPX high at 4637 on 3/29? A “whoosh down” could take us to a rapid test of the 200-dma near 3500 which would could lead to a big reversal higher into 5/31 or so. Our bias on Friday was for more market strength which came early on a run up to SPX 3943 before wild volatility into the close. If we do get a market flush on Monday, our bias is to go long AAPL or XOM by the close. Bitcoin is testing 30447 overnight Sunday and that is a positive tell for early strength in the SPX early Monday. The DJIA, SPX and NDX all made lows for the year on Friday before the bounce into the close. The bond market continues to consolidate sideways from Thursday. Crude oil gave  us EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart last week and just a 3-wave bounce so far which looks weak. For the USD, we got a 5-wave decline below 103.194 which is also a SELL SIGNAL and just a weak bounce – both the Yen and Euro are poised to move higher.  

5/22/22 (Commentary for Sunday) We saw wild SPX volatility on expiration Friday. Our bias for this week is a low on Mon/Tues (that could contain a whoosh down to SPX 3500) followed by a strong rally into the holiday weekend. Bitcoin is testing 31477 overnight Sunday which is a positive tell early for the SPX on Monday. However, Monday is the 55-day Fibonacci step out from the important high on 3/29 and could set the low for the first leg down in the 2022/2023 Bear Market. The rally into Friday’s close only managed a NYSE breadth of -250 and could be just another small “wave 2” of a 3^rd wave down in progress. Crude oil gave us a 5-wave decline on the hourly chart last week and just a 3-wave bounce which is BEARISH, and the USD gave us 5-waves down on the hourly chart for a SELL SIGNAL which is bullish for the Yen and Euro. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities – we also hold some FXY (Yen) shares.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – We believe that the SPX is close to the end of the first leg down in the 2022-2023 Bear Market. The SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low hits and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold is close to an intermediate cycle low that should bottom by the 5/25 Comex Gold Expiration if it hasn’t already at $1785 early Monday.

• Stocks – Our bias is for a SPX low on Monday/Tuesday that could be scary followed by a strong reversal into the holiday weekend.
• Gold – Gold is testing $1860 as we enter the Monday before Comex Gold Expiration on 5/25. We may have seen the gold ICL at $1785 early Monday.
• Silver – After the false break down attempt below $21, silver rallied in 5-waves on the hourly chart and is testing $21.9 overnight Sunday.
• Bonds – Bonds have been correcting sideways since Thursday.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil fell in 5-waves on the hourly with just a 3-wave bounce which looks short-term bearish. The XLE is too far above its 200-dma to buy on dips.
• Dollar Index – The USD gave us an EW 5-wave decline on its hourly chart for a SELL SIGNAL – the Yen and Euro are poised for a run higher.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for the next week is 5/24.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - May 19, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  After the huge down day on Wednesday, the SPX only gave us a choppy, corrective looking rally on Thursday. Our bias was for stock market strength on tomorrow’s monthly option expiration, but anything could happen. More stock market rally into Friday/Monday could give us another stock market top worth shorting early next week. Bitcoin is testing 31000 overnight and that is a positive tell for early strength in the SPX on Friday. The DJIA made a lower low today but the SPX and NDX did not which is a sign of bullish divergence. The bond market continues to rally and US rates continue to cool off which is helping stocks. Crude oil gave us an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart and a SELL SIGNAL. For the USD, we got a 5-wave decline below 103.194 which is also a SELL SIGNAL.  

5/19/22 (Commentary for Thursday) After the drubbing on Wednesday, the SPX rally attempt today looked rather weak. However, our bias remains for a SPX rally into Friday/Monday before the next leg down.  Bitcoin is testing 31000 overnight which is a positive tell early for the SPX on Friday. The IWM rally on Thursday was strong and looks likely to continue on Friday. A lot of market puts were bought on Wednesday and market makers could push the market up into the weekend before the SPX trend resumes down next week. We’ll see. Crude oil gave us a 5-wave decline on the hourly chart which is a SELL SIGNAL, and the USD gave us 5-waves down on the hourly chart for a SELL SIGNAL. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities – we also hold some FXY (Yen) shares.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – We believe that the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low hits and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold is close to an intermediate cycle low that should bottom by early next week if it didn’t already at $1785 early Monday.

• Stocks – The SPX gave us a crappy looking rally attempt Thursday but our bias is still higher into option expiration with the IWM leading the market higher.
• Gold – Gold tested $1848 today as the GDX outperformed. We may have seen the gold ICL at $1785 early Monday.
• Silver – After the false break down attempt below $21, silver rallied in 5-waves on the hourly chart which is bullish.
• Bonds – Bonds gave us an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart which is a SELL SIGNAL.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil fell hard to $103.2 on Wednesday and the XLE pulled back. The XLE is too far above its 200-dma to buy on dips.
• Dollar Index – The USD gave us an EW 5-wave decline on its hourly chart for a SELL SIGNAL – the Yen and Euro could make a run higher.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 5/16-5/18 on the Full moon Timing Window.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - May 18, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX didn’t like Target’s earnings which confirmed what the earnings from Walmart told us – supply chain inflation is hitting earnings hard. The SPX corrected hard and left behind just a 3-wave corrective rally from the low on 5/12. Did we make an important low on today’s Moon in Capricorn? If so, we could see a bounce into the weekend on this week’s option expiration before the next leg down in the SPX. We should have shorted the TRIN-5 SELL SIGNAL on Tuesday’s low – especially since today was the day after a monthly VIX expiration that has given us a “heavy selling” day in four out of five months. Crude oil continued to sell off to $105.61 and the XLE pulled back with the market. For the USD, a decline below 103.194 would give us an EW 5-waves down and a SELL SIGNAL.  

5/18/22 (Commentary for Wednesday) After only a 3-wave rally from Thursday, the SPX got hit hard by the disappointing earnings from Target and plunged below 4000. Will we continue down on Thursday or bounce into the option expiration weekend before the next leg early next week? Our bias is for a SPX bounce into option expiration before the next leg down. The IWM pullback was much more modest than for the SPX and could be signaling a leg up into the weekend. A lot of market puts were bought today going into option expiration Friday and the market makers could push the market up into the weekend before the trend resumes down next week. We’ll see. After a decline on Wednesday, Bitcoin is going sideways overnight and is not giving us a strong tell on the early SPX direction on Thursday. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities – we also hold some FXY (Yen) shares. Crude oil gave us a 3-wave correction to $105 and is trying to bounce Wednesday night. Undercutting 103.164 would give the USD a SELL SIGNAL that could help gold bounce.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – We believe that the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low hits and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold is close to an intermediate cycle low that should bottom by early next week if it didn’t already at $1785 early Monday.

• Stocks – The TRIN-5 SELL SIGNAL at Tuesday’s close should have gotten us short the SPX near Tuesday’s close but we held off. We did get another Big-Range day down in the SPX on the day after a monthly VIX expiration.
• Gold – Gold pulled back to $1806 before bouncing. We may have seen the ICL at $1785 early Monday.
• Silver – Silver may be tracing out a 4^th wave correction of an impulsive leg higher after giving us a false breakdown last week.
• Bonds – Bonds appear to be bouncing correctively from 134’30 and that implies a test of 3.17% on the 10-yr US rate.  
• Crude Oil – Crude oil fell hard to $105 on Wednesday and the XLE pulled back.
• Dollar Index – The USD rolled over to test 103 on a stronger Euro – an EW 5-wave decline on its hourly chart would be a sell signal.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for the next week is 5/16.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - May 17, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  We were wrong about the SPX peaking its rally on Monday – the SPX opened with a gap up higher, and after a head-fake down, rallied into the close. The NYSE market breadth stayed up near +2000 throughout the session, a sign of strength. We did get a TRIN-5 reading of 3.56 at the close, however, which is a SPX sell signal and we are expecting a “volatile, big-range trading day” on Wednesday. We had a monthly VIX expiration day today and that has led to a “big-range trading day” the following Wednesday in every month so far in 2022. Gold tested $1835 early but then declined into the close and tested $1810. Crude oil rallied to $115.56 early Tuesday before rolling over impulsively to test $111 – the XLE rallied to a new high at 84.39 in after-hours trading. The USD declined on Monday and is testing $104 overnight.  

5/17/22 (Commentary for Tuesday) It appeared that the SPX finished a Running B-Wave correction from Thursday on Monday – the low volume of the SPX on Monday looked bearish as did the Doji candlestick. Our bias is for more correction down in the SPX on Tuesday. A move down to test 3800 is still possible this week as we approach monthly option expiration. The Option Premium Ratio held up at 2.84 today and that argues for lows below SPX 3858 by next week. Last week started off with Mercury going retrograde on Monday and it appeared that stocks, bonds and currencies were poised for reversals from short-term lows, however, the stock rally into Monday is not convincing to us so far. Bitcoin is holding above 30000 and its Person’s pivot on Monday night and that is positive for the open on Tuesday. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities – we also hold some FXY (Yen) shares. Crude oil is testing $115 Monday evening on the Full Moon. The USD rolled over to test 103 on Tuesday as the Euro tries to break out higher.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – We believe that the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low hits and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold is close to an intermediate cycle low that should bottom by early next week if it didn’t already at $1785 early Monday.

• Stocks – The SPX kept its rally going into late Monday and gave us a Positive Volume Reversal Day which is bullish. However, we got a TRIN-5 sell signal at the close which could give us a market reversal down sometime Wednesday. We are expecting a lot of volatility tomorrow since it is the Wednesday after a monthly VIX expiration and that has brought us a Big-Range Day in every month of 2022.
• Gold – Gold extended its bounce to $1835 early Tuesday before a pullback to $1810 into the evening. We may have seen the ICL at $1785 early Monday.
• Silver – Silver may have given us a false breakdown last week before bouncing up to test its R1 resistance pivot at $21.95 early Tuesday.
• Bonds – Bonds appear to be bouncing correctively from 134’30 and that implies a test of 3.17% on the 10-yr US rate.  
• Crude Oil – Crude oil rallied to $115.56 early Tuesday before rolling over to test $111 overnight.
• Dollar Index – The USD rolled over to test 103 on a stronger Euro – an EW 5-wave decline on its hourly chart would be a sell signal.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for the next week is 5/16.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - May 16, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The corrective bounce in the SPX appeared to run its course today on the Full Moon and left a Doji candlestick on the daily candlestick. Our bias is that the low volume of today’s SPX rally and the weak close is pointing to more downside into Tuesday. The SPX did take out our multi-month symmetry target at 3931 last week and that break of symmetry argues for lower lows in the near term. Gold tested $1785 overnight Sunday and rallied to $182 by the close on Monday on today’s Full Moon. Crude oil bounced into the Monday Full Moon and tested $115 – the XLE rallied to a new high at 83.76. The USD declined on Monday and is testing $104 overnight.  

5/16/22 (Commentary for Monday) It appeared that the SPX finished a Running B-Wave correction from Thursday on Monday – the low volume of the SPX on Monday looked bearish as did the Doji candlestick. Our bias is for more correction down in the SPX on Tuesday. A move down to test 3800 is still possible this week as we approach monthly option expiration. The Option Premium Ratio held up at 2.84 today and that argues for lows below SPX 3858 by next week. Last week started off with Mercury going retrograde on Monday and it appeared that stocks, bonds and currencies were poised for reversals from short-term lows, however, the stock rally into Monday is not convincing to us so far. Bitcoin is holding above 30000 and its Person’s pivot on Monday night and that is positive for the open on Tuesday. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities – we also hold some FXY (Yen) shares. Crude oil is testing $115 Monday evening on the Full Moon. The USD rolled over to test 104 on Monday, but the Yen and Euro continue to trend sideways.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – We believe that the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low hits and the US economy slows. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold is close to an intermediate cycle low that should bottom by early next week.

• Stocks – The SPX undercut out symmetry target of 3930 by a wide margin and this keeps are target range of 3500-3800 going into 5/20-5/23.
• Gold – Gold spiked down to tag $1785 overnight Sunday but finished Monday at $1822 on the Monday’s Full Moon. The ICL may not be seen until 5/20-5/23.
• Silver – Silver briefly undercut its 50% retracement from the Covid low ($20.77) and tagged $20.42 on Friday before bouncing up to test $21.60 on Monday’s Full Moon.
• Bonds – Bonds appear to be bouncing correctively from 134’30 and that implies a test of 3.17% on the 10-yr US rate.  
• Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $115 overnight Monday on the Full Moon.
• Dollar Index – The USD ran to a new high for the year at 105 on Friday but is rolling over to test 104 on Monday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for the next week is 5/16.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - May 15, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX and NDX both had big rally days, but we view the market rally from Thursday as a corrective bounce into Monday’s Full Moon/lunar eclipse. The GDX (gold stocks) led the SPX down from the 4/18 high and their relative weakness on Friday is a tell that the SPX has more to go on the downside into the coming week. The SPX did take out our multi-month symmetry target at 3931 last week and that break of symmetry argues for lower lows in the near term.  This market still needs a capitulation and a catalyst for that might be the Monday Full Moon/lunar eclipse – a market bounce into Sunday night or early Monday may see a strong reversal down. Money statistics indicate that the “buy the dip” crowd bought heavily in the March rally and are deeply under water – this group needs to capitulate before we get a lasting low. Our bias is now for a whoosh down to test the SPX 3500-3800 sometime in the next two weeks. Gold undercut $1800 on Friday and we view the weekly close below $1822 as negative for the SPX. Crude oil bounced into the Full Moon Timing Window and is testing $111 – the XLE got a bounce on Friday. The USD made a new high at 105 on Friday but the currencies like the Euro and Yen appear ready for a bounce.

5/15/22 (Commentary for Sunday) Bitcoin bounced from 25230 pre-market Thursday and tested 30564 on Friday but the rally looks corrective to us. In our view, Bitcoin just made a corrective bounce into the 5/13-5/16 Full Moon/lunar eclipse and is about to lead the SPX down next week. A whoosh down to 3500-3800 is still possible next week after early Monday’s Full Moon/lunar eclipse. The Option Premium Ratio held up to 2.82 last week and that argues for lows below SPX 3858 going into next week. The stock, bond and currency markets all appeared ripe for a reversal last week – but the reversal attempts in stocks and currencies did not look convincing. The SPX high-energy geo-cosmic turn window which looks to be a low could extend into Monday’s Full Moon/lunar eclipse. Last week started off with Mercury going retrograde on Monday and it appeared that stocks, bonds and currencies were poised for reversals from short-term lows, however, the stock rally on Friday was not convincing to us. Bitcoin is holding above 30000 so far on Sunday evening but its bounce from Thursday looks complete. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities – we also hold some FXY (Yen) shares. Crude oil tested $111.71 on its R1 resistance pivot Sunday night and then reversed down. The USD made a new high at 105 on Friday, but the Yen may have made an important low last Monday and the Euro on Thursday.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX undercut our symmetry correction target of 3930 on Thursday and our target range remains 3500-3800 by 5/20-5/23.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold’s weak close on Friday below $1810 argues for more down on Monday’s Full Moon/lunar eclipse.

• Stocks – The SPX undercut out symmetry target of 3930 by a wide margin and this keeps are target range of 3500-3800 going into 5/20-5/23.
• Gold – Gold made a weak close on Friday below $1810 and that argues for more down into Monday. The ICL may not be seen until 5/20-5/23.
• Silver – Silver gave us a 3-wave rally Sunday night to test its R1 resistance pivot at $21.29 before rolling over.
• Bonds – The move down in the 10-yr US rate last week looked corrective and the rally in bonds looked corrective – we could see higher rates this week.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $111.71 overnight Sunday and rolled over when it tested its R1 resistance pivot.
• Dollar Index – The USD ran to a new high for the year at 105 on Friday, but the Yen and Euro may have made lows last week.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for the next week is 5/16.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - May 12, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The PPI came in at 11% YoY and the SPX gave us a gap-down open followed by an EW a-b-c bounce into the close. We saw some capitulation in the “generals” - AAPl and MSFT  =and that means we are getting closer to a sustainable low. The SPX did take out our symmetry target at 3931 and made a low at 3859 – we did not get a “whoosh” down in the SPX but the Big Tech stocks have sold off with heavy volume. However, this market still needs a capitulation and the best catalyst for that might be the Monday Full Moon/lunar eclipse – we are expecting a low on Monday/Tuesday. Money statistics indicate that the “buy the dip” crowd bought heavily in the March rally and are deeply under water – this group needs to capitulate before we get a lasting low. Our bias is now for a whoosh down to test the SPX 3500-3800 range into the 5/16-5/17 Full Moon Timing Window. We are expecting some kind of short-term SPX low to form and a relief rally to start in several markets by early next week. Gold tested  $1809 overnight Thursday and then bounced to tag $1824 – gold is very close to an intermediate cycle low (ICL) but the PM sector is going down with the stock market here and could overshoot to the downside. Crude oil is testing $108 overnight Thursday and appears to be in a run up into the 5/16 Full Moon. The USD made a new high at 104.925 but the currencies like the Euro, Yen and gold all appear ready for a bounce.

5/12/22 (Commentary for Thursday) Bitcoin declined down to 25350 pre-market Thursday and that helped give the SPX a gap-down open after the hot PPI report. The hotter-than-expected PPI report did give us a move down to 3858 before a bounce into the close. A whoosh down to 3500-3800 is still possible going into Monday’s Full Moon/lunar eclipse. The Option Premium Ratio bounced back to 2.99 on Thursday and that argues for lows below SPX 3858 going into Monday. The CNN Fear and Greed indicator hit lows for the year at 6 – extreme fear. The bond market relief rally continued higher Thursday and tagged 141’03 pre-market. The stock, bond and currency markets all appeared ripe for a reversal this week. The SPX high-energy geo-cosmic turn window which looks to be a low could extend into Monday’s Full Moon/lunar eclipse. This week started off with Mercury going retrograde on Monday and it appears that stocks, bonds and currencies are poised for short-term reversals soon – bonds have already reversed higher. Bitcoin is testing its R1 resistance pivot at 30525 and this points to a higher open for the SPX. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities – we added some FXY (Yen) shares this morning. Crude oil is bouncing to $108 overnight and could be making a run into the Monday Full Moon. The USD made a new high at 104.92, but the Yen may have made an important low early Monday and the Euro today.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX undercut our symmetry correction target of 3930 on Thursday and our target range remains 3500-3800 by Monday/Tuesday.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold tested $1809 overnight Thursday before bouncing to $1824 – we are very close to an intermediate cycle low (ICL) this week.

• Stocks – The SPX undercut out symmetry target of 3930 by a wide margin and this keeps are target range of 3500-3800 going into Monday. The hot PPI report gave us more decline but not a capitulation. We could see a whoosh to “3500-3800” by Monday.  
• Gold – Gold tested $1809 Thursday night and then bounced to $1824.
• Silver – Silver gave us a head fake below $21 Thursday and could now bounce into the Full Moon Monday.
• Bonds – Bonds continued its relief rally on Thursday and tested 141’03 pre-market today.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil is rallying to $108 overnight and could have started a run higher into the Full Moon.
• Dollar Index – The USD ran to a new high for the year at 104.92, but the Yen and Euro look close to a reversal higher.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for the next few days is 5/16.