All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - January 30, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX opened down Monday but then tried a rally that failed. Seasonality for a Fed Week usually involves a SPX pullback into the Wednesday Fed Day. Our bias is that the SPX rally from 10/13 is a Bear Market Rally and our Time Window target is the first week of February where we have a Fed Day on Wednesday and a NFP jobs report on Friday. We also have key earnings from AAPL and AMZN on Thursday this week. Our price target for this Bear Market rally is the 50%  retracement area around 4150 or the 61.8% retracement around 4300. The NDX has been leading the market higher and has outperformed both the SPX and DJIA -investors have moved from the industrial stocks back to chasing technology stocks again like AAPL  Crude oil is testing  $77.52 overnight Monday. Gold tested $1952 early Friday and then pulled back again to test its S1-support pivot at $1935 on Monday night. Like the SPX, gold is giving us a seasonal pullback into the Wednesday Fed Day while the GDX gives us an EW a-b-c correction. The USD is bouncing to 102.31 on Monday night which is pressuring the PM sector down.

1/30/23 (Commentary for Monday) Led by the NDX, the SPX rallied to close above its diagonal resistance and its 50-dma and looks capable of testing resistance at 4100 sometime this week if the SPX can navigate Fed Day okay. We still believe that the market rally from October 13 is a Bear Market Rally that will make new lows in Q2 2023 - we are not in the "this is a new bull market camp". into the close. The market rallied on the strong economic reports that came out pre-market last week and money flowed into the chip stocks. However, our Bear Market Time Window target is the first week of February which includes a Fed Day on Wednesday and a NFP jobs report on Friday. Our short-term bias is for more SPX  seasonal retracement into Wednesday's Fed Day.  We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due in Q2 of 2023 for the stock market. The China reopening after its Covid lockdown is bullish for crude oil – we like buying pullbacks below $70 if seen. The USD bounced higher to 102.31 Monday night which is pressuring gold. We currently hold 70% cash, 10% uranium stocks and 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The SPX rallied in an EW 5-wave pattern from 12/22 into 1/23 - the 3-wave pullback into 1/25 was bullish for more rally into Fed Week. However, the SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q2 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to the first week of February for an important turn - this should be a trading high for the SPX. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We consider the rally from 10/13/22 as a bear market rally in gold, silver and the PM stocks that should peak in late January/early February. We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows sometime in Q2 of 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down into Q2 2023.

Stocks – The SPX opened Monday week, then tried to bounce, and then declined into the close in what looks like a seasonal pattern for Fed Week.

Gold – Gold tested $1952 early Friday and again pulled back to test $1935 Monday evening.. 

Silver – Silver tested its S2-support pivot before rallying out and testing $23.73 Sunday night.

Bonds - Bonds may have finished an EW a-b-c correction into Friday on the hourly chart.

Crude Oil – Crude oil fell on Friday to test its S2-pivot support at $79 and is now testing $77.52 Monday evening.

Dollar Index – The USD has rallied correctively from its 101.50 low last week and is testing 102.31 Monday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are the 2/1 Fed Day and the NFP jobs report on 2/3.

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The Weekly JDV Market Timer - January 29, 2023

 

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX close above the 50-dma on Friday on a week of bullish action where the SPX made early lows in the session and managed to rally into the close. However, our bias is that the SPX rally from 10/13 is a Bear Market Rally and our Time Window target is the first week of February where we have a Fed Day on Wednesday and a NFP jobs report on Friday. We also have key earnings from AAPL and AMZN next week. Our price target for this Bear Market rally is the 50%  retracement area around 4150 or the 61.8% retracement around 4300. The NDX has been leading the market higher and has outperformed both the SPX and DJIA -investors have moved from the industrial stocks back to chasing technology stocks again like AAPL Our short-term bias is for more SPX rally into Monday before the Fed Day. Crude oil declined to test its S2-support pivot at $79 and we are looking for a bounce into Monday. Gold tested $1952 early Friday and then pulled back to test its Person's pivot at $1935 before bouncing into the close - we are looking for strength into early Monday.  the SPX higher into the close which is a concern.  The USD made an undercut low last week at 101.50 on Thursday and is trying to rebound .

1/29/23 (Commentary for Sunday) Led by the NDX, the SPX rallied to close above its diagonal resistance and its 50-dma and looks capable of testing resistance at 4100 into early Monday. We still believe that the market rally from October 13 is a Bear Market Rally that will make new lows in Q2 2023 -  we are not in the "this is a new bull market camp". into the close. The market rallied on the strong economic reports that came out pre-market last week and money flowed into the chip stocks. However, our Bear Market Time Window target is the first week of February which includes a Fed Day on Wednesday and a NFP jobs report on Friday. Our short-term bias is for more SPX rally into Monday before the seasonal retracement into Wednesday's Fed Day.  We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due in Q2 of 2023 for the stock market. The China reopening after its Covid lockdown is bullish for crude oil – we like buying pullbacks below $70 if seen. The USD made an undercut low to 101.50 but bounced higher. We currently hold 70% cash, 10% uranium stocks and 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The SPX rallied in an EW 5-wave pattern from 12/22 into 1/23 - the 3-wave pullback into 1/25 was bullish for more rally into the 2/1 Fed Minutes. However, the SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q2 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to the first week of February for an important turn - this should be a trading high for the SPX. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We consider the rally from 10/13/22 as a bear market rally in gold, silver and the PM stocks that should peak in late January/early February. We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows sometime in Q2 of 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down into Q2 2023.

Stocks – The SPX opened weak on Friday but rallied to test the 12/13 high at 4098. We sold our URA, UUUU and CCJ calls.

Gold – Gold tested $1952 early Friday and then pulled back to its Person's pivot before rallying to test its R1-resistance pivot at 1946 before the close. 

Silver – Silver tested its S2-support pivot before rallying out and testing $23.73 Sunday night.

Bonds - Bonds may have finished an EW a-b-c correction into Friday on the hourly chart.

Crude Oil – Crude oil fell on Friday to test its S2-pivot support at $79 and is now reversing higher Sunday evening.

Dollar Index – The USD has rallied correctively from its 101.50 low last week and could make another undercut low into early next week.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are the 2/1 Fed Day and the NFP jobs report on 2/3.

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The Daily JDV Market Timer - January 26, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: For the last two trades, the SPX sold off early only to rally into the close. A weakening USD helped both the SPX and PM sector rally back into the close. The NDX has been leading the market higher and has outperformed both the SPX and DJIA -investors have moved from the industrial stocks back to chasing technology stocks again like AAPL Our short-term bias is for more rally into early next week before the Fed Day.  Crude oil rallied to test its R2-resistance pivot at $82 but then corrected for the rest of the day.  Gold sold off early, but did not follow the SPX higher into the close which is a concern. However, gold is trying to rally back on Thursday night. The USD made an undercut low pre-market and bounced back higher during the day.

1/26/23 (Commentary for Thursday) Good earnings or not, traders are starting to chase tech stocks higher again and the SPX looks capable of testing resistance at 4100 into early next week. We still believe that the market rally from October 13 is a Bear Market Rally that will make new lows in Q2 2023 -  we are not in the "this is a new bull market camp". into the close. The market rallied on the strong economic reports that came out pre-market today and money flowed into the chip stocks. Traders interpreted the strong economic numbers as more supporting to their "soft economic landing narrative".  We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due in Q2 of 2023 for the stock market. The China reopening after its Covid lockdown is bullish for crude oil – we like buying pullbacks below $70 if seen. The USD made an undercut low to 101.50 but bounced higher. We currently hold 70% cash, 10% uranium stocks and 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The SPX rallied in an EW 5-wave pattern from 12/22 into 1/23 - the 3-wave pullback into 1/25 was bullish for more rally into the 2/1 Fed Minutes. However, the SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q2 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to late January/early February 2023 for an important turn - this should be a trading high for the SPX. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We consider the rally from 10/13/22 as a bear market rally in gold, silver and the PM stocks that should peak in late January/early February. We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows sometime in Q2 of 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down into Q2 2023.

Stocks – The SPX opened weak but rallied into a new rally high at 4061.57 into the close. We sold our AAPL near the open.

Gold – Gold pulled back to test Tuesday's low at $1917 before rebounding, but it underperformed the SPX going into the close.

Silver – SILJ is leading silver higher here which is bullish.

Bonds - Bonds have given us 5-waves down on the hourly chart and the bounce from Monday still looks corrective.

Crude Oil – Crude oil fell off on a big build in inventories but is still tracing out a "cup and handle pattern" on the hourly chart - bullish for a rally.

Dollar Index – The USD made at undercut low at 101.50 before rebounding.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 1/24.

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The Daily JDV Market Timer - January 25, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX opened down after MSFT sold the futures off overnight (traders liked the earnings but not the forward guidance). A weakening USD helped both the SPX and PM sector rally back into the close. The NDX has been leading the market higher and has outperformed both the SPX and DJIA -investors have moved from the industrial stocks back to chasing technology stocks again like AAPL The SPX rallied in 5-waves from the important 12/22 low  and just a 3-wave pullback to 1/25, the 34-day Fibonacci step out from 12/22, which gave us a nice reversal higher today. Crude oil fell Tuesday on a big increase inventories but has still traced out a "cup and handle" pattern on its hourly chart - we could see bullish action into Friday. After early weakness, gold grinded higher to test $1950 but could see more post Comex-option-expiration-volatility on Thursday.  The key chart here is still the USD and it appears to be rolling over to test its recent low at 101.53.  

1/25/23 (Commentary for Wednesday) Bad guidance from MSFT led to a gap-down open for the SPX, but a weakening USD helped stocks to fight their way back into the close. The SPX gave us an ideal setup today - a 3-wave SPX correction into 1/25, the 34-day Fibonacci step out from 12/22. Uranus turned DIRECT on 1/22 and that added to the upside volatility on Monday. This week is a big earnings week and should also be a market catalyst - the earnings from MSFT rallied the market at first but that was given up later in the evening. The SPX rallied into our 1/24 turn window and just gave us a 3-wave correction into 1/25 which was bullish. The US economic data came in weaker across the board last week and threatened the "soft economic landing" idea that traders have clung to recently - can stock earnings reports this week turn this narrative around?  We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due in Q2 of 2023 for the stock market. The China reopening after its Covid lockdown is bullish for crude oil – we like buying pullbacks below $70 if seen. We currently hold 70% cash, 10% uranium stocks and 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The SPX rallied in an EW 5-wave pattern from 12/22 into 1/23 - the 3-wave pullback into 1/25 was bullish for more rally into the 2/1 Fed Minutes. However, the SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q2 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to late January/early February 2023 for an important turn - this should be a trading high for the SPX. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We consider the rally from 10/13/22 as a bear market rally in gold, silver and the PM stocks that should peak in late January/early February. We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows sometime in Q2 of 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down into Q2 2023.

Stocks – The SPX gave us a bullish setup this morning  - an EW 5-waves higher from the 12/22 low into Monday and then just a 3-wave pullback into Wednesday. We added some AAPL this morning for a trade.

Gold – Gold rallied to test $1950 but could still see some post-Comex-option-expiration volatility on Thursday.

Silver – Silver bottomed early Wednesday and then led the PM sector higher into the close.

Bonds - Bonds have given us 5-waves down on the hourly chart and the bounce from Monday still looks corrective.

Crude Oil – Crude oil fell off on a big build in inventories but is still tracing out a "cup and handle pattern" on the hourly chart - bullish for a rally.

Dollar Index – The USD is rolling over and looks to test its recent low at 101.52. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 1/24.

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The Daily JDV Market Timer - January 24, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Both the SPX and NDX gave us "inside days" on Tuesday as the market waited on the earnings report from MSFT but both indices closed near their diagonal resistance line. After a "glitchy open in stocks" the SPX and NDX gave us a sideways correction into the close. MSFT rallied hard after its earnings report but got sold off later overnight. The NDX has been leading the market higher and has outperformed both the SPX and DJIA -investors have moved from the industrial stocks back to chasing technology stocks again like AAPL. The SPX rallied in 5-waves from the important 12/22 low  and just a 3-wave pullback to 1/25, the 34-day Fibonacci step out from 12/22, would be ideal for a reversal higher. Crude oil fell Tuesday on a big increase in inventories but has still traced out a "cup and handle" pattern on its hourly chart - we could see bullish action on Wednesday. Gold grinded higher to highs for the move at $1943 - we could still see some pullback into Wednesday on Comex option expiration. The key chart here is still the USD and it continues to move sideways in a possible bear flag pattern.  

1/24/23 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX continued its sideways correction from late Monday after finishing an EW 5-wave rally from 12/22 and still closed above its diagonal resistance. Just a 3-wave SPX correction into 1/25, the 34-day Fibonacci step out from 12/22, would be a bullish setup to go higher. Uranus turned DIRECT on 1/22 and that added to the upside volatility on Monday. This week is a big earnings week and should also be a market catalyst - the earnings from MSFT rallied the market at first but that was given up later in the evening. The SPX rallied into our 1/24 turn window and is just giving us a sideways correction so far which is bullish. The US economic data came in weaker across the board last week and threatened the "soft economic landing" idea that traders have clung to recently - can stock earnings reports this week turn this narrative around? We'll see how MSFT acts on the open. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due in Q2 of 2023 for the stock market. The China reopening after its Covid lockdown is bullish for crude oil – we like buying pullbacks below $70 if seen. We currently hold 70% cash, 10% uranium stocks and 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The SPX rallied in an EW 5-wave pattern from 12/22 into 1/23 - just a 3-wave pullback into 1/25 would be bullish for more rally into the 2/1 Fed Minutes. However, the SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q2 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to late January/early February 2023 for an important turn - this should be a trading high for the SPX. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We consider the rally from 10/13/22 as a bear market rally in gold, silver and the PM stocks that should peak in late January/early February. We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows sometime in Q2 of 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down into Q2 2023.

Stocks – Powered by Uranus turning DIRECT on 1/22, the SPX rallied to give us an EW 5-waves higher from the 12/22 low on Monday and started a sideways correction that ran through Tuesday. Just a 3-wave pullback into Wednesday would give us an ideal setup to go long.  

Gold – Gold rallied to $1943 but could still pull back into Comex Option Expiration on Wednesday.

Silver – Silver held up so far into Comex option expiration - we may have seen the low of the week on Monday.

Bonds - Bonds have given us 5-waves down on the hourly chart and the bounce from Monday may be corrective.

Crude Oil – Crude oil fell off on a big build in inventories but is still tracing out a "cup and handle pattern" on the hourly chart - bullish for a rally.

Dollar Index – The USD reversed down after testing its R1 resistance pivot at 102.38. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 1/24.

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The Daily JDV Market Timer - January 23, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX and NDX did power higher on Monday in the New Moon Timing Window and the SPX did close above its down trendline. However, the Tuesday after a monthly expiration is a turn window in our work and we expect a SPX correction to start tomorrow and the pattern of this pullback will enlighten us. The SPX gave us an EW 5-wave advance from the important 12/22 low today and just a 3-wave pullback to 1/25, the 34-day Fibonacci step out from 12/22, would be ideal for a reversal higher. Crude oil traced out a "cup and handle" pattern going into the New Moon - we could see bullish action on Tuesday. Silver pulled back early but retraced into the close while gold and gold stocks held up pretty well - we expect more pullback in gold going into Comex gold expiration on 1/24-1/25. The key chart here is still the USD and we are looking for an important low early this week.  

1/23/23 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX and the NDX continued their rallies on Monday and the SPX may have finished an EW 5-wave rally from 12/22 and closed above its downtrend line from 1/4/22. On Tuesday, just a 3-wave SPX correction into 1/25, the 34-day Fibonacci step out from 12/22, would be a bullish setup to go higher. Uranus turned DIRECT on 1/22 and that added to the upside volatility on Monday. This week is a big earnings week and should also be a market catalyst. The SPX rallied into our 1/24 turn window and should be bearish for a pullback on Tuesday. The US economic data came in weaker across the board last week and threatened the "soft economic landing" idea that traders have clung to recently - can stock earnings reports this week turn this narrative around? We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due in Q2 of 2023 for the stock market. The China reopening after its Covid lockdown is bullish for crude oil – we like buying pullbacks below $70 if seen. We currently hold 70% cash, 10% uranium stocks and 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The SPX rallied in an EW 5-wave pattern from 12/22 into 1/23 - just a 3-wave pullback into 1/25 would be bullish for more rally into the 2/1 Fed Minutes. However, the SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q2 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to late January/early February 2023 for an important turn - this should be a trading high for the SPX. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We consider the rally from 10/13/22 as a bear market rally in gold, silver and the PM stocks that should peak in late January/early February. We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows sometime in Q2 of 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down into Q2 2023.

Stocks – Powered by Uranus turning DIRECT on 1/22, the SPX rallied hard Monday in the New Moon Timing Window.  However, the Tuesday after a monthly expiration is a turn window and we expect a SPX pullback to start Tuesday.

Gold – We could see more gold correction into Comex gold option expiration on 1/24-1/25.

Silver – Silver tried to lead the PM sector down today, but we saw some retracement into the close. We are expecting more correction into 1/24-1/25.

Bonds - Bonds have given us 5-waves down on the hourly chart.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is tracing out a "cup and handle pattern" on the hourly chart - bullish for early in the week.

Dollar Index – Looking for the USD to make an undercut low on Tuesday. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 1/24.

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The Weekly JDV Market Timer - January 22, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: On Friday's monthly expiration, the SPX rallied deeper into the New Moon Timing Window from 1/20-1/23. With the exact New Moon on Saturday afternoon, we could see more SPX rally into Monday. However, the Tuesday after a monthly expiration is a turn window in our work and we do expect a correction to start by 1/24. We are at the end of the intense 1/12-1/22 astro-finance period and Uranus turning DIRECT on 1/22 will bring volatility. The SPX was repelled again by its down trendline from 1/4/22 last week but the bulls took control on Friday. Even so, we are looking for some kind of SPX correction to start by Tuesday and the nature of that pullback will tell us how much juice the January bear market rally in the SPX has left. Crude oil traced out a "cup and handle" pattern going into the New Moon - we could see bullish action on Monday. Gold and gold stocks rallied into the 1/20-1/23 New Moon Timing Window  - we are looking for a pullback into Comex gokd option expiration on 1/24-1/25. The key chart here is still the USD and we are looking for an important low early this week.  

1/22/23 (Commentary for Sunday) The SPX ran up into the 1/20-1/23 New Moon Timing on option expiration Friday, but the Tuesday after a monthly expiration is a turn window in our work. Therefore, since the exact New Moon fell on Saturday afternoon, we could see more SPX rally early Monday but are expecting a turn down by Tuesday. The 1/12-1/22 turn window has seen some impressive astro-finance volatility and the last part of it is Uranus going DIRECT on 1/22 which could add volatility on Monday. Next week is a big earnings week and should also be a market catalyst. Last week, the SPX was repelled by its downtrend line from its 1/4/22 high and then caught a big rally after a 50% retracement on expiration Friday. A SPX rally into the 1/24 turn window will be bearish for a pullback this week.  The US economic data came in weaker across the board last week and threatened the "soft economic landing" idea that traders have clung to recently - can stock earnings reports this week turn this narrative around? We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due in Q2 of 2023 for the stock market. The China reopening after its Covid lockdown is bullish for crude oil – we like buying pullbacks below $70 if seen. We currently hold 70% cash, 10% uranium stocks and 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The NDX rallied into the New Moon Timing Window on Friday - is the tradable January rally about over? If so, the SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q2 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to late January/early February 2023 for an important turn - this should be a trading high for the SPX. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We consider the rally from 10/13/22 as a bear market rally in gold, silver and the PM stocks that should peak in late January/early February. We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows sometime in Q2 of 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down into Q2 2023.

Stocks – The SPX was repelled by its downtrend line from 1/4/2022 but rallied big on expiration Friday after the 50% retracement. Because the exact New Moon was Saturday afternoon, we expect more SPX rally early Monday. However, the Tuesday after a monthly expiration is a turn window and we expect a SPX pullback to start by Tuesday

Gold – We could see higher highs in gold early Monday before a pullback into Comex gold option expiration on 1/24-1/25.

Silver – Likewise for silver, we could see a pullback in silver into Comex silver option expiration.

Bonds - Bonds took a break and pulled back today.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is tracing out a "cup and handle pattern" on the hourly chart - bullish for early Monday.

Dollar Index – Looking for the USD to make an undercut low on Monday. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 1/24.

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The Daily JDV Market Timer - January 19, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX gave us another gap down open on weak economic data and spent the day trying to fill the down gap which it didn't do. On Tuesday, after rallying in a "rising wedge formation", the SPX tested its downtrend line from 1/2/2022 and was repelled which started the pullback this week. Tomorrow, we enter the 1/20-1/23 New Moon Timing Window and monthly option expiration which should provide more volatility. The SPX appears to be reacting to weaker economic reports. Crude oil and gold both ran up today and may be making a run up into the 1/20-1/23 New Moon Timing Window. The key chart here is still the USD which pulled back a little from yesterday.  Taking advantage of USD weakness, gold ran up to test $1936 today - highs for the rally from 10/13/22. 

1/19/23 (Commentary for Thursday) On weaker than expected economic data, the SPX once again gapped down at the open and spent the rest of the day trying to rally back and fill the gap which it failed to do. Next weak is a big earnings week and should be a market catalyst. The SPX declined to the 50% retracement of the rally from the December low, and the market bulls need to take control here and rally this market impulsively. The SPX tested its downtrend line at 4015.39 on Tuesday and started this decline. The US economic data came in weaker across the board this week and threatened the "soft economic landing" idea that traders have clung to recently which brought some selling in this week. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower lows are due in Q2 of 2023 for the stock market. The China reopening after its Covid lockdown is bullish for crude oil – we like buying pullbacks below $70 in crude oil. We currently hold 70% cash, 10% uranium stocks and 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The continued liquidation of TSLA and AAPL into January argued for a tradable rally in January - if the QQQ can hold above 260. However, the SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q2 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to early February 2023 for an important turn - this could be a trading high for the SPX. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We consider the rally from 10/13/22 as a bear market rally in gold, silver and the PM stocks that should peak in late January/early February. We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows sometime in Q2 of 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down into Q2 2023.

Stocks – The SPX is reacting negatively to weak US economic reports and we gapped down again to the weak building permits number this morning. The SPX retraced 50% from the December lows and the bulls must take control and rally it here.

Gold – On USD weakness, gold rallied up to test $1936 near the end of the day.

Silver – Silver stocks CDE and WPM came alive today and tried to pull silver higher.

Bonds - Bonds took a break and pulled back today.

Crude Oil – Crude oil bounced to $81.16 late in the session.

Dollar Index – The USD pulled back a little after its bounce yesterday - rising rates gave it a boost. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 1/17 and 1/20.

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The Daily JDV Market Timer - January 18, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX opened higher after the cooler than expected PPI report but then reversed down into the close. The SPX made a high for the week on Tuesday, in our turn window, at 4015.39 and then started a correction. The retails sales report also came in this morning and it appears that the SPX may also be starting to react to weaker economic reports. Despite the cooler PPI inflation report, the SPX declined hard after the strong run up so far in 2023 - the NDX had rallied for seven days in a row. The key chart here is for the USD which reversed early weakness and rallied up above its Person's Pivot at 102.29. The financial astrology also argued for big volatility today as Mercury went DIRECT - Uranus gwill go DIRECT on 1/22. On early USD weakness, gold bounced higher to test $1920 in a B-Wave before reversing down in its C-Wave. 

1/18/23 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX ran up into the holiday weekend and made a peak Tuesday at 4015.39 before starting a 3-wave pullback. After the PPI report early today, the SPX rallied at the open before continuing its correction from Tuesday. The astro-finance argued for big volatility from 1/12-1/22 and we got some downside volatility today from Mercury going DIRECT on 1/18 -  Uranus will turn DIRECT on 1/22. Crude oil is testing its S1-rsupport pivot at $78.58 Wednesday evening. The US economic data came in weaker across the board today and threatened the "soft economic landing" idea that traders have clung to recently which brought some selling. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower lows are due in Q2 of 2023 for the stock market. The China reopening after its Covid lockdown is bullish for crude oil – we like buying pullbacks below $70 in crude oil. We currently hold 70% cash, 10% uranium stocks and 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The continued liquidation of TSLA and AAPL into January argues that we will get a tradable rally in January - if the QQQ can hold above 260. However, the SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q2 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to early February 2023 for an important turn - this could be a trading high for the SPX. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We consider the rally from 10/13/22 as a bear market rally in gold, silver and the PM stocks that should peak in late January/early February. We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows sometime in Q2 of 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down into Q2 2023.

Stocks – The SPX got a positive open from the "cooler than expected" PPI inflation report and tested the high from yesterday before resuming its correction from Tuesday. 

Gold – Gold spiked up after the PPI report and tested $1929 before resuming its correction from Sunday night.

Silver – Silver opened up strong after the PPI report and tested $24.50 before reversing down hard.

Bonds - Bonds rallied up to test 133 on the weak economic data.

Crude Oil – Crude oil fell to test its S1-support pivot at $78.58 late Wednesday.

Dollar Index – After testing 101.52 early Wednesday, the USD bounced up to test its Person's pivot at 102.3 into the close. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 1/17 and 1/20.

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The Daily JDV Market Timer - January 17, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX rallied into the holiday weekend and then started a modest pullback into Wednesday's PPI report. The SPX posted a multi-week high at 4015.39 before pulling back in a 3-wave correction so far. How the market reacts to the PPI report will set the tone into Friday. The key chart here is for the USD which bounced on Tuesday and gave us a pullback in the SPX and gold. The financial astrology is arguing for big volatility in the next seven days with Mercury going DIRECT on 1/18 and Uranus going DIRECT on 1/22. The USD bounced early Tuesday and that gave us a pullback in the SPX and gold into Wednesday's PPI report. On Friday, gold tested key resistance at $1922 and started a decline into Wednesday's PPI inflation report. A positive market reaction to the PPI report could see a run up in gold to test $1922 again into the 1/20-1/21 New Moon Timing Window. 

1/17/23 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX ran up into the holiday weekend and made a peak Tuesday at 4015.39 before starting a 3-wave pullback. The astro-finance argued for big volatility from 1/12-1/22 as Mars turned DIRECT on 1/12, Mercury turns DIRECT on 1/18 and Uranus turns DIRECT on 1/22. Crude oil is testing its R1-resistance pivot near $81.7 Tuesday evening and the oil stocks may be leading crude oil higher. Tuesday morning will bring us the PPI report and another inflation check point for the SPX rally. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower lows are due in Q2 of 2023 for the stock market - despite our bullishness for January. With China reopening after its Covid lockdown, that is bullish for crude oil – we like buying pullbacks below $70 in crude oil. We currently hold 70% cash, 10% uranium stocks and 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The continued liquidation of TSLA and AAPL into January argues that we will get a tradable rally in January - if the QQQ can hold above 260. However, the SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q2 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to early February 2023 for an important turn - this could be a trading high for the SPX. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We consider the rally from 10/13/22 as a bear market rally in gold, silver and the PM stocks that should peak in late January/early February. We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows sometime in Q2 of 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down into Q2 2023.

Stocks – The SPX ran up into the holiday weekend and peaked at 4015.39 on Tuesday before pulling back in a 3-wave correction so far. How the market reacts to the PPI inflation report early Wednesday will determine the short-term trend into the 1/20-1/23 New Moon Timing Window.

Gold – Gold tested important horizontal resistance at $1922 near the close on Friday and started a correction into Wednesday's PPI report.

Silver – Silver made highs for the week at $24.67 Sunday night but is also pulling back into the PPI inflation report.

Bonds - Bonds bounced today ahead of the PPI report tomorrow.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested its R1-resistance pivot at $81.7 Tuesday night.

Dollar Index – The USD tested 102.8 Tuesday night and is pressuring gold down. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 1/17 and 1/20.

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