All Star Market Timing

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX and the DJIA rolled past the New Moon Timing window and made all-time highs which argues for more melt up into the 4/23 high-energy turn window. The Retail Sales report came in much stronger than expected at 9.8%, and instead of soaring higher, long rates came down hard as the bond shorts covered. Falling long rates especially hit BAC hard because of its leverage to long rates. Bitcoin continued its correction and COIN actually closed lower than Wednesday. The market appears awfully extended to us on many technical indicators, and we still believe in holding 25% cash. Crude oil is testing $64 Thursday night – another bullish sign for the market. Gold closed above $1754 and the PM sector may have started full rally mode. The USD continues to roll over impulsively and this is helping the PM sector.

4/15/21 (Commentary for Thursday) A big beat on the Retail Sales report gave the SPX a gap-up open and we roared higher into the close as long rates dropped. Bitcoin did not trade well today, but the SPX and DJIA made new highs past the New Moon Timing Window and that argues that the melt up should continue into at least the 4/23 turn window. A lot of longer-term “market-breath indicators” are very extended at this point and the DSI readings from the major stock indices are on the extremely bullish end of the scale and ripe for a trend reversal -but perhaps not until next week. In our opinion, we are getting close to a tradeable high for stocks. For the SPX, the 55-wk Fibonacci step out from the 3/23/2020 crash low falls this week and it could bring a reversal down by next week’s high-energy 4/23 turn window. A spike here in the 10-yr rate is less likely now that the DSI bullish bond sentiment was only about 2% last week - ultra-low bullishness – and we are looking for long rates to correct in the near term before spiking much higher in the summer when inflation numbers really start rocking. Crude oil is extending its post-New Moon breakout to test $64 Thursday night and this should help oil stocks make a run early Friday. Good bank earnings from BAC and C got sold into this morning as long rates dropped from the open. The energy, banking and materials sectors remain our favorite investment vehicles going forward and deserve allocation from investors on pullbacks into late April – we especially like the pullback in uranium stocks (CCJ, UUUU, UEC, DNN, etc.) lately which will give nice setups in the near term. Gold closed above $1754 which is bullish and gold stocks continue to outperform the metal which is a big positive. The USD is declining impulsively on the hourly chart and that should help the PM sector.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The 55-week Fibonacci step out from the 3/23/2020 crash low falls this week and could usher in a “tradeable high in stocks” by next week. We like the XLE, XLF, and XLB ETFs on pullbacks into late April.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – The 55-wk Fibonacci step out from the 3/23/2020 low fell this week and gave us a reversal higher in gold after the New Moon Timing Window. The 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 3/8 low gave us a low early Tuesday. Sentiment is terrible in the PM sector and it appears that we may have already made a correction low on 3/8.

• Stocks – The SPX and the DJIA powered to new all-time highs on Thursday and that argues that the trend is higher into next week’s 4/23 turn window. Maintaining a 25% cash level here makes sense to buy potential pullbacks in the XLE, XLF and XLB sectors.
• Gold – Gold closed above $1754 which is bullish and gold stocks continue to lead the way which is very positive. We are holding GLD.
• Silver – Silver tested $26 today and the SIL and SILJ continue to lead the way – we are holding SLV.
• Bonds – The DSI bullish bond sentiment was only 2% last week and that has us looking for a bounce in bonds and a consolidation for long rates.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil extended its breakout higher to test $64  post-New Moon and looks to go higher – the XLE should get a pop early Friday.
• Dollar Index –The USD is declining impulsively and that is starting to support the PM sector.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 4/12, the New Moon Timing Window.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 14, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX, DJIA, and bitcoin all made new all-time highs today before the COIN IPO(Coinbase). After COIN started trading, bitcoin and the markets sold off into the close. The COIN IPO ended near lows for the day – down over $100 from the opening price of $429.54. How bitcoin and the SPX trades on Thursday will set the trend into the high-energy 4/23 geo-cosmic turn window. The market appears awfully extended to us on many technical indicators, and we still believe in holding 25% cash. We have entered a period of high year-over-year CPI and PPI comparisons because of the 3/23/20 crash low, but the market hasn’t priced in the coming inflation in our opinion. The opening of the Coinbase IPO on Wednesday appeared to be a “sell the news” event for bitcoin -there may have been an arbitrage of selling bitcoin holdings to buy COIN. Crude oil sharply extended its breakout to $63 and oil shares got a bounce – crude oil is basing for another run higher overnight Wednesday. Gold corrected into today and continues to consolidate above $1723 – a close above $1754 will get our notice. The USD is rolling over impulsively and this could help the PM sector.

4/14/21 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX, DJIA and bitcoin made new highs early today, but it was all downhill when COIN opened trading – it appeared to be a sell the news event for bitcoin – how the SPX and bitcoin trade on Thursday will set the market trend into the 4/23 turn window. A lot of longer-term “market-breath indicators” are very extended at this point and the DSI readings from the major stock indices are on the extremely bullish end of the scale and ripe for a trend reversal. In our opinion, we are close to a tradeable high for stocks. For the SPX, the 55-wk Fibonacci step out from the 3/23/2020 crash low falls this week and it could bring a reversal down. A spike here in the 10-yr rate is less likely now that the DSI bullish bond sentiment is only about 2% - ultra-low bullishness – and we are looking for long rates to consolidate in the near term and then spike much higher in the summer when inflation numbers really start rocking. Crude oil extended its post-New Moon breakout to test $63 and oil stocks got a pop. Bank earnings from JPM and GS got sold into this morning, but BAC and WFC, who have earnings early Thursday, got nice pops. The energy, banking and materials sectors remain our favorite investment vehicles going forward and deserve allocation from investors on pullbacks into late April – we especially like the pullback in uranium stocks (CCJ, UUUU, UEC, DNN, etc.) lately which will give nice setups. Gold pulled back in just an EW a-b-c correction into $1723 Tuesday morning and continued to consolidate above $1723 on Wednesday – a close above $1754 will be bullish. The USD is declining impulsively on the hourly chart and that should help the PM sector.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The 55-week Fibonacci step out from the 3/23/2020 crash low falls this week and could usher in a “tradeable high in stocks”. We like the XLE, XLF, and XLB ETFs on pullbacks into late April.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – The 55-wk Fibonacci step out from the 3/23/2020 low falls this week and gave us a reversal higher in gold after the New Moon Timing Window. The 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 3/8 low gave us a low early Tuesday. Sentiment is terrible in the PM sector and we may have already made a correction low on 3/8.

• Stocks – The SPX, NDX and bitcoin made early all-time highs today, but we got a “sell the news” effect after the Coinbase IPO started trading mid-day. How we trade in the SPX and bitcoin on Thursday will set the trend into the 4/23 high-energy turn window. Maintaining a 25% cash level here makes sense to buy potential pullbacks in the XLE, XLF and XLB sectors.
• Gold – Gold finished an EW a-b-c correction at $1723 before and just consolidated above $1724 on Wednesday – a close above $1754 will be bullish.
• Silver – The SIL and SILJ are leading the PM sector higher which is bullish.
• Bonds – The DSI bullish bond sentiment was only 2% last week and that has us looking for a bounce in bonds and a consolidation for long rates. However, when a market gets this oversold, we could see a chaotic break lower in price and spike higher in long rates – just a possibility to consider this week.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil extended its break out higher to test $63 post-New Moon and looks to go higher – the XLE got a pop today.
• Dollar Index –The USD is declining impulsively and that is starting to support the PM sector.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 4/12, the New Moon Timing Window.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 13, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX and NDX made new all-time highs today as well as bitcoin in the 4/11 +/- 2 CD New Moon Timing Window. The CPI report came in hot as expected and the stock futures were down pre-market but recovered quickly as long rates pulled back during the session. We have entered a period of high year-over-year CPI and PPI comparisons because of the 3/23/20 crash low and the market hasn’t priced in the coming inflation in our opinion. Bitcoin made an all-time high in advance of the Coinbase IPO on Tuesday – will this be a “sell the news” event? With markets so extended here, we still believe in holding 25% cash. Crude oil gave us a weak break out attempt of its wedge pattern but fears of a price war led by OPEC could send us lower in the short term. Gold started reversing higher before the 8:30 AM EDT CPI report was released and appears to have finished an EW a-b-c correction from last week’s high at $1760. The USD is rolling over impulsively, and the PM sector noticed today.

4/13/21 (Commentary for Tuesday) We were looking for a stock run up into the 4/11+/- 2 CD New Moon Timing Window and we got it for the SPX and NDX today – more rally past the Coinbase IPO on Wednesday will indicate a chance for more blowoff into the 4/23 high-energy geo-cosmic turn window. A lot of longer-term “market-breath indicators” are very extended at this point and the DSI readings from the major stock indices are on the extremely bullish end of the scale and ripe for a trend reversal – in our opinion, we are close to a tradeable high for stocks. For the SPX, the 55-wk Fibonacci step out from the 3/23/2020 crash low falls this week and it could bring a reversal down. A spike here in the 10-yr rate is less likely now that the DSI bullish bond sentiment is only about 2% - ultra-low bullishness – and we are looking for long rates to consolidate in the near term and then spike much higher in the summer when inflation numbers really start rocking. Crude oil is attempting a breakout of its sideways wedge into the New Moon, but a potential OPEC price war could pressure prices in the short term. The energy, banking and materials sectors remain our favorite investment vehicles going forward and deserve allocation from investors on pullbacks into late April – we especially like the pullback in uranium stocks (CCJ, UUUU, UEC, DNN, etc.) lately which will give nice setups. Gold pulled back in just an EW a-b-c correction into $1723 Tuesday morning and started rallying before the CPI inflation report – a close above $1754 will be bullish. The USD is declining impulsively on the hourly chart and that is starting to help the PM sector.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The 55-week Fibonacci step out from the 3/23/202o crash low falls this week and could usher in a “tradeable high in stocks”. We like the XLE, XLF, and XLB ETFs on pullbacks into late April.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – The 55-wk Fibonacci step out from the 3/23/2020 low falls this week and could give us a reversal higher in gold after the New Moon Timing Window. The 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 3/8 low gave us a low early Tuesday. Sentiment is terrible in the PM sector and we may have already made a correction low on 3/8.

• Stocks – The SPX and NDX made all-time highs today but rallying to higher highs after the Coinbase IPO on Wednesday will suggest more blowoff into the 4/23 high-energy turn window. Maintaining a 25% cash level here makes sense to buy potential pullbacks in the highly overextended stock indices.
• Gold – Gold finished an EW a-b-c correction at $1723 before the CPI report and reversed higher today – a close above $1754 will be bullish.
• Silver – The SIL and SILJ are leading the PM sector higher which is bullish.
• Bonds – The DSI bullish bond sentiment was only 2% last week and that has us looking for a bounce in bonds and a consolidation for long rates. However, when a market gets this oversold, we could see a chaotic break lower in price and spike higher in long rates – just a possibility to consider this week.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil traced out a “wedge pattern” into the New Moon and is trying to make a weak break out attempt to $61.
• Dollar Index –The USD is declining impulsively and that is starting to support the PM sector.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 4/12, the New Moon Timing Window.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 12, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX made new highs today in the New Moon window and this could be the high for the week. How the market digests the CPI report early Tuesday will set the tone – we believe that we have entered a period of high year-over-year CPI and PPI comparisons. Another inflation spike early Tuesday could rattle the markets and spike rates –we have favored raising about 25% cash and we may be seeing a short-term high developing here. Crude oil gave us a false break out higher of its wedge pattern but fears of a price war led by OPEC could send us lower in the short term. Gold tested $1760 early Friday and then got slammed hard after the hot PPI number spiked rates early Friday – we could see a repeat of this volatility after the CPI report early Tuesday. The USD is rolling over impulsively, but it isn’t helping the PM sector.

4/12/21 (Commentary for Monday) We were looking for a stock run up into the 4/11-4/12 New Moon Timing Window and we got it for the SPX today as it hit all-time highs – this could be the high for the week as the CPI early Tuesday and bank earnings later this week could bring volatility. A lot of longer-term “market-breath indicators” are very extended at this point and the DSI readings from the major stock indices are on the extremely bullish end of the scale and ripe for a trend reversal – we are close to a tradeable high for stocks. For the SPX, the 55-wk Fibonacci step out from the 3/23/2020 crash low falls this week and it could bring a reversal down. A spike here in the 10-yr rate is less likely now that the DSI bullish bond sentiment is only about 2% - ultra-low bullishness – and we are looking for long rates to consolidate in the near term and then spike much higher in the summer when inflation numbers start rocking.  The NDX bounced up into the 4/11-4/12 New Moon Timing Window and made a B-Wave test of the 2/16 high that could then be followed by a C-Wave down that could undercut QQQ 297. Crude oil is attempting a breakout of its sideways wedge into the New Moon, but a potential OPEC price war could pressure prices in the short term. The energy, banking and materials sectors remain our favorite investment vehicles going forward and deserve allocation from investors on pullbacks into late April. Gold tested $1760 early Friday before a hot PPI number (> 4% higher y-o-y) briefly spiked rates high and slammed gold to $1730. On Monday, gold gave us a correction high on the 34-day Fibonacci step out from 3/8 and reversed down which is short-term bearish. The USD is declining impulsively on the hourly chart but that is not helping gold here.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The 55-week Fibonacci step out from the 3/23/202o crash low falls this week and could usher in a “tradeable high in stocks”. We like the XLE, XLF, and XLB ETFs on pullbacks into late April.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – The 55-wk Fibonacci step out from the 3/23/2020 low falls this week and could give us a reversal down after a New Moon high. The 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 3/8 low turned us down on Monday and this could set the short-term trend down into 4/23. Sentiment is terrible in the PM sector and we may have already made a correction low on 3/8.

• Stocks – The SPX made new highs today in the New Moon Timing Window and reached our target at 4131. The VIX DSI on 4/5 reading came it at just 9% which argues for big volatility soon. Maintaining a 25% cash level here makes sense to buy potential pullbacks in our favored sectors into the high-energy 4/23 geo-cosmic turn window. The CPI report early Tuesday has the potential to spook the markets.
• Gold – The 34-day Fibonacci step out gave us a corrective high early Monday and a reversal down which is short-term bearish. Gold may need to build a base under $1700 which could take more time. We added some GLD puts.
• Silver – The SIL and SILJ gave us 5-waves up on the hourly into Thursday and argued for the pullback that we saw on Friday. The 34-day Fibonacci step out on Monday gave us a corrective high and reversal down in silver and may set the trend into the high-energy 4/23 geo-cosmic turn window.
• Bonds – The DSI bullish bond sentiment is only 2% and that has us looking for a bounce in bonds and a consolidation for long rates. However, when a market gets this oversold, we could see a chaotic break lower in price and spike higher in long rates – just a possibility to consider this week.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil traced out a “wedge pattern” into the New Moon and is trying to break out higher.
• Dollar Index –The USD is declining impulsively but that did not support the Pm sector today.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 4/12, the New Moon Timing.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - April 11, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The DJIA and SOX made new highs into Friday’s close and the NDX appears to be making a B-Wave test of its 2/16 high – since the New Moon is exact on Sunday night at $10:30 PM EDT, we are looking for higher highs into early Monday, before a potential reversal down by Tuesday. We still favor raising about 25% cash and we may be seeing a short-term high developing here. Crude oil continues to wedge sideways into the New Moon – our bias is that we are setting up for a spike higher into the 4/11-4/12 New Moon. Gold tested $1760 early Friday and then got slammed hard after the hot PPI number spiked rates – we are looking for volatility on Monday. The USD spiked briefly early Friday on the rate scare but bonds and stocks quickly recovered – the USD appears to be rolling over impulsively.

4/11/21 (Commentary for Sunday) We were looking for a stock run up into the 4/11-4/12 New Moon Timing Window and we got it – that means we could see more strength into Monday for the DJIA, SPX, and NDX before a reversal by Tuesday. A lot of longer-term “market-breath indicators” are very extended at this point and the DSI readings from the major stock indices are on the extremely bullish end of the scale and ripe for a trend reversal – we are close to a tradeable high for stocks. For the SPX, the 55-wk Fibonacci step out from the 3/23/2020 crash low falls this week and it could bring a reversal down. A spike here in the 10-yr rate is less likely now that the DSI bullish bond sentiment is only about 2% - ultra-low bullishness – and we are looking for long rates to consolidate in the near term and then spike much higher in the summer when inflation numbers start rocking.  With long rates in a potential sideways consolidation, the NDX should bounce up into the 4/11-4/12 New Moon Timing Window and make a B-Wave test of the 2/16 high that will then be followed by a C-Wave down, starting Tuesday, that could undercut QQQ 297. Crude oil is still wedging into the New Moon Sunday night and we could see a spike higher into Monday before another turn down. The energy, banking and materials sectors remain our favorite investment vehicles going forward and deserve allocation from investors on pullbacks. Gold tested $1760 early Friday before a hot PPI number (> 4% higher yoy) briefly spiked rates high and slammed gold to $1730 – how we trade on gold on Monday is crucial – it is the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the important 3/8 low at $1673. We may have already made a correction low on 3/8 and double-tested it on 3/31 – keep your eyes on the gold sector early this week. The USD declined impulsively on the hourly chart and that should give the PM sector a boost on Monday.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The 55-week Fibonacci step out from the 3/23/202o crash low falls this week and could usher in a “tradeable high in stocks”. We like the XLE, XLF, and XLB ETFs on pullbacks into late April.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – The 55-wk Fibonacci step out from the 3/23/2020 low falls next week and could give us a reversal down after a New Moon High or a reversal higher – the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 3/8 low on Monday could set the short-term trend into 4/23. Sentiment is terrible in the PM sector and we may have already made a correction low on 3/8.

• Stocks – The SPX and the NDX continue to roll higher into the weekend New Moon, but we are looking for a tradeable high soon by 4/12. Monday’s VIX DSI reading came it at just 9% which argues for big volatility soon. Maintaining a 25% cash level here makes sense to buy potential pullbacks in our favored sectors into the high-energy 4/23 geo-cosmic turn window.
• Gold – A hot PPI report early Friday briefly spiked rates and slammed gold to $1730 – how we trade into the 34-day Fibonacci step out on Monday will set the trend in gold into 4/23.
• Silver – The SIL and SILJ gave us 5-waves up on the hourly and argued for the pullback that we saw on Friday. The 34-day Fibonacci step out on Monday will set the trend into the high-energy 4/23 geo-cosmic turn window.
• Bonds – The DSI bullish bond sentiment is only 2% and that has us looking for a bounce in bonds and a consolidation for long rates. However, when a market gets this oversold, we could see a chaotic break lower in price and spike higher in long rates – just a possibility to consider this week.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil is tracing out a “wedge pattern” into the New Moon – our bias is for a spike above $63 into Monday.
• Dollar Index –The USD is declining impulsively and that could support the PM sector this week.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 4/12, the New Moon Timing Window.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 8, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The NDX and SPX are blowing off into the 4/11-4/12 New Moon Timing Window and it could make an important intermediate high. We still favor raising about 25% cash. Crude oil is in a wedge as we approach the New Moon – our bias is that we are setting up for a spike higher into the 4/11 New Moon. Gold closed above the $1754 Daniel Code resistance line and looks to spike higher into the New Moon. The USD declined in an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart which should benefit the PM sector.

4/08/21 (Commentary for Thursday) We’re still looking for a stock run up into the 4/11-4/12 New Moon Timing Window and then a stock correction into the 4/23 high-energy geo-cosmic turn window. A lot of longer-term “market-breath indicators” are very extended at this point and the DSI readings from the major stock indices are on the extremely bullish end of the scale and ripe for a trend reversal – we are close to a tradeable high. For the SPX, the 55-wk Fibonacci step out from the 3/23/2020 crash low falls next week and looks like a reversal down. A spike here in the 10-yr rate is less likely now that the DSI bullish bond sentiment is only about 2% - we are now looking for long rates to consolidate in the near term and then spike much higher in the summer when inflation numbers start rocking.  With long rates in a potential sideways consolidation, the NDX should bounce up into the 4/11-4/12 New Moon Timing Window and make a B-Wave test of the 2/16 high that will then be followed by a C-Wave down that could undercut QQQ 297. Crude oil is still wedging sideways into the weekend but we favor a spike higher into the 4/11 New Moon before another turn down. The energy, banking and materials sectors remain our favorite investment vehicles going forward and deserve allocation from investors on pullbacks. Gold is making make a run higher into the New Moon – we closed above $1754 today and that turned us bullish. We may have already made a correction low on 3/8 and double-tested it on 3/31 – keep your eyes on the gold sector. The USD is declining impulsively and that should give the PM sector a boost.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The 55-week Fibonacci step out from the 3/23/202o crash low falls next week and could usher in a “reversal down”. We could be close to a tradeable high in the SPX.  We like the XLE, XLF, and XLB ETFs on pullbacks into late April.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – The 55-wk Fibonacci step out from the 3/23/2020 low falls next week and could give us a reversal down after a New Moon High. But sentiment is terrible in the PM sector and we may have already made a correction low on 3/8.

• Stocks – The SPX and the NDX continue to roll higher into the weekend New Moon, but we are looking for a tradeable high soon by 4/12. Monday’s VIX DSI reading came it at just 9% which argues for big volatility soon. Maintaining a 25% cash level here makes sense.
• Gold – Gold closed above key resistance at $1754 and turned us bullish – we are holding some GLD and NEM calls. GDX went 5-waves up into Thursday on the hourly chart and argues for a pullback early Friday.
• Silver – The SIL and SILJ gave us 5-waves up on the hourly and argues for a correction into Friday. A weakening USD could give silver a nice bounce into 4/11-4/12.
• Bonds – The DSI bullish bond sentiment is only 2% and that has us looking for a bounce in bonds and a consolidation for long rates.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil is tracing out a “wedge pattern” into the weekend – our bias is for a spike above $63 into the 4/11-4/12 New Moon.
• Dollar Index –The USD is declining impulsively and that could support the PM sector.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 4/5-4/6.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 7, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  One of my favorite ways of measuring market psychology is Jake Bernstein’s Daily Sentiment Index report or DSI for short. Our bear horns are starting to grow after seeing Monday’s DSI bullish sentiment numbers for various global stock index futures – S&P 90, Nasdaq 85, Nikkei 90 – we are close to a tradeable top. We still looking for a stock run up into the 4/11-4/12 New Moon Timing Window before a reversal down next week that could run into the 4/23 high-energy geo-cosmic turn window. Crude oil is in a wedge as we approach the New Moon – our bias is that we are setting up for a spike higher into the 4/11 New Moon. Gold tested $1746.7 Tuesday and started a sideways correction – our bias is that gold will hold up into the New Moon – a close above $1754 will turn us bullish. The USD appears to be declining impulsively which could benefit the PM sector.

4/07/21 (Commentary for Wednesday) We’re still looking for a stock run up into the 4/11-4/12 New Moon Timing Window and then a stock correction into the 4/23 high-energy geo-cosmic turn window. A lot of “market-breath indicators” are very extended at this point and the DSI readings from Monday for the S&P, Nasdaq and Nikkei futures are on the extremely bullish end of the scale and ripe for a trend reversal – we are close to a tradeable high. For the SPX, the 55-wk Fibonacci step out from the 3/23/2020 crash low falls next week and looks like a reversal down. A spike here in the 10-yr rate is less likely now that the DSI bullish bond sentiment is only about 2% - we are now looking for long rates to consolidate in the near term and perhaps spike much higher in the summer when inflation numbers start rocking.  With long rates in a potential sideways consolidation, the NDX could bounce up into the 4/11-4/12 New Moon Timing Window but this move could just be a B-Wave that will be followed down after the New Moon by a C-Wave that could undercut QQQ 297. Crude oil is wedging sideways into the weekend but we favor a spike higher into the 4/11 New Moon before another turn down. The energy, banking and materials sectors remain our favorite investment vehicles going forward and deserve allocation from investors on pullbacks. Gold looks like it wants to make a run higher into the New Moon – a close above $1754 will turn us bullish. We may have already made a correction low on 3/8 and double-tested it on 3/31 – keep your eyes on the gold sector. The USD appears to be declining impulsively and that could give the PM sector a boost.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The 55-week Fibonacci step out from the 3/23/202o crash low falls next week and could usher in a “reversal down”. We could be close to a tradeable high in the SPX.  We like the XLE, XLF, and XLB ETFs on pullbacks in the SPX into late April.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – The 55-wk Fibonacci step out from the 3/23/2020 low falls next week and could give us a reversal higher. Sentiment is terrible in the PM sector and we expect a major low in the first half of April.

• Stocks – The SPX and the NDX continue to hold up into the weekend New Moon, but we are looking for a tradeable high soon. Monday’s VIX DSI reading came it at just 9% which argues for big volatility soon. We sold some AAPL calls today. Maintaining a 25% cash level makes sense here.
• Gold – Gold tested $1746.7 Tuesday before rolling into a sideways corrective pattern. A close above $1754 would turn us bullish – we are holding some GOLD and NEM calls.  
• Silver – Silver closed above the 200-dma Tuesday and gave us 5-waves up on the hourly chart – that is bullish. SIL and SILJ are leading silver higher which is bullish. A weakening USD could give silver a nice bounce into 4/11-4/12.
• Bonds – The DSI bullish bond sentiment is only 2% and that has us looking for a bounce in bonds and a consolidation for long rates.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil is tracing out a “wedge pattern” into the weekend – our bias is for a spike above $63 into the 4/11-4/12 New Moon.
• Dollar Index –The USD is declining impulsively and that could support the PM sector.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 4/5-4/6.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 6, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX and NDX gave us a high-level consolidation day Tuesday which is bullish. We are now looking for a run up into the 4/11-4/12 New Moon Timing Window, so dips in the QQQ can be bought. The 10-yr rate made a price high last week of 1.765% but with negative divergence – we are expecting a sideways consolidation in long rates in the near term that should allow tech stocks to rally this week. There is a chance for a pullback after next week’s New Moon. Crude oil tested $61 on Tuesday - we may be setting up for a run higher into the 4/11 New Moon. Gold tested $1746.7 Tuesday before rolling over. The USD may have finished an EW a-b-c correction.

4/06/21 (Commentary for Tuesday) Tuesday was a quiet, high-level consolidation day which allowed the SPX to make a new high. The NYSE Advance/Decline line made a new high on Tuesday which is bullish for more stock rally this week. A spike here in the 10-yr rate is less likely now that the DSI bullish bond sentiment is only about 2% - we are now looking for long rates to consolidate in the near term and perhaps spike much higher in the summer when inflation numbers start rocking.  With long rates in a potential sideways consolidation, the NDX could make a catch-up rally here into the 4/11-4/12 New Moon Timing Window. We like the QQQ on a dip into early Wednesday after breaking above a key trendline last week – the QQQ made a 11% correction in Feb/March and tested a long-term support/resistance line. Crude oil tested $61 on Tuesday, and we may be setting up for a spike higher into the 4/11 New Moon. The energy, banking and materials sectors remain our favorite investment vehicles going forward and deserve allocation from investors on pullbacks. Gold looks like it wants to make a run higher into the New Moon – we prefer to play the large cap gold stocks (GOLD, NEM, AEM) for this run. The USD may be finishing an EW a-b-c correction Tuesday and may pressure the PM sector overnight.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – A spiking US 10-yr rate above 2% could take away the froth away from the recovery stocks. We like the XLE, XLF, and XLB ETFs on pullbacks in the SPX into April.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – A spike in long rates above 2% could briefly knock gold down under important support at $1671. Sentiment is terrible in the PM sector and we expect a major low in the first half of April.

• Stocks – The SPX and the DJIA gave us a high-level consolidation on Tuesday as the NYSE Advance/Decline line continued to make new highs. We added AAPL, FCX and NEM today.
• Gold – Gold tested $1746.7 before rolling over Tuesday night – we are holding GOLD which saw some massive Dark Pool prints last week.  
• Silver – Silver closed above the 200-dma Tuesday and gave us 5-waves up on the hourly chart – that is bullish. SIL and SILJ are leading silver higher which is bullish. A weakening USD could give silver a nice bounce into 4/11-4/12.
• Bonds – The DSI bullish bond sentiment is only 2% and that has us looking for a bounce in bonds and a consolidation for long rates.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $61 on Tuesday and could be coiling for a spike back above $63 into the 4/11 New Moon.
• Dollar Index –The USD may have finished an EW a-b-c correction Tuesday night and should get a bounce.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 4/5-4/6.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 5, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  When the QQQ broke neck-line resistance at 324.4 into Thursday’s close and the NFP jobs number came in bigger than expected, we expected a strong Monday for the SPX and NDX. The NDX gave us a 11% correction in Feb/March, the SPX barely corrected, and European markets held up well. We are now looking for a run up into the 4/11-4/12 New Moon Timing Window, so dips in the QQQ should be bought. The 10-yr rate made a price high last week of 1.765% but with negative divergence – we are expecting a sideways consolidation in long rates in the near term that should allow tech stocks to rally. The Option Premium Ratio has dropped from .99 last Wednesday to .63 today and this is bullish for Tuesday. Crude oil did plunge to $58 today but we may be setting up for a run higher into the 4/11 New Moon. The USD tested Person’s Pivot at 92.72 Monday evening and is rolling over – this is giving the PM sector room to rally on Tuesday.

4/05/21 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX and the DJIA made new all-time highs on Monday after Friday’s strong NFP jobs report and the NDX is roaring back led by AAPL, FB, GOOG and MSFT. A spike here in the 10-yr rate is less likely now that the DSI bullish bond sentiment is only about 2% - we are now looking for long rates to consolidate in the near term and perhaps spike much higher in the summer when inflation numbers start rocking.  With long rates in a potential sideways consolidation, the NDX could make a catch-up rally here into the 4/11-4/12 New Moon Timing Window. We like the QQQ on dips into Tuesday/Wednesday after breaking above the key trendline on Thursday’s close – the QQQ made a 11% correction in Feb/March and tested a long-term support/resistance line. Crude oil plunged to test $58 on Monday, but we may be just setting up for another spike higher into the 4/11 New Moon. The energy, banking and materials sectors remain our favorite investment vehicles going forward and deserve allocation from investors on pullbacks. Gold looks like it wants to make a run higher into the New Moon – we prefer to play the large cap gold stocks (GOLD, NEM, AEM) for this run. The USD is correcting below 93 Monday night and this should be bullish for the PM sector on Tuesday.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – A spiking US 10-yr rate above 2% could take away the froth away from the recovery stocks. We like the XLE, XLF, and XLB ETFs on pullbacks in the SPX into April.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – A spike in long rates above 2% could briefly knock gold down under important support at $1671. Sentiment is terrible in the PM sector and we expect a major low in the first half of April.

• Stocks – The SPX and the DJIA made all time highs on Monday, but we like the QQQ on dips for a run into the 4/11 New Moon.
• Gold – A correcting USD will help gold and gold stocks make a run into the 4/11 New Moon – we are holding GOLD which saw some massive Dark Pool prints last week.  
• Silver – SIL and SILJ are trying to lead silver higher. A weakening USD could give silver a nice bounce into 4/11-4/12.
• Bonds – The DSI bullish bond sentiment is only 2% and that has us looking for a bounce in bonds and a consolidation for long rates.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil plunged to $58 on Monday but that could just be a setup for a spike back above $60 into the 4/11 New Moon.
• Dollar Index –The USD is breaking under 93 Monday night and this could give the PM sector a boost on Tuesday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 4/5-4/6.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - April 4, 2021

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The NFP jobs report early Friday came in stronger than expected and so how interest rates behave late Sunday/early Monday will be key. The Option Premium Buy signal that we got on 3/25-3/26, with back-to-back values of 1.04, culminated with all-time highs in the DJIA and SPX on Thursday. The last 15 out of 16 Aprils have been bullish and the short-term stock market trend appears higher into the 4/11 New Moon. Rising long rates could still give us SPX volatility along the way and redirect money flow. The QQQ gave us a weekly close above the important trend line at 324.25 and this could give the tech stocks a boost. The Option Premium Ratio dropped from .99 to .75 and this is bullish for the SPX which should open Monday strong. Crude oil has been range bound from the $57.25 low but closed above the key $60 level on Thursday which negates the previous sell signal of a close under $60 last week. The USD rallied in 5-waves last week to 93.44 on the hourly chart – we only got a corrective 3-wave pullback into Thursday which is bullish for higher highs.

4/04/21 (Commentary for Sunday) The SPX and the DJIA made new all-time highs last week and with the strong NFP jobs report we could open higher Monday before a retracement. A spike in the 10-yr US rate above 2% could upset stocks as we enter April and give us a “volatility event” but the trend in the SPX should remain higher into the 4/11 New Moon. Euphoria reigns on Wall Street but quick corrections are needed to reign in some excesses in some sectors as we climb the wall of worry higher. Spiking long rates could provide retracements along the way. However, the QQQ gave us a weekly close above the key trendline at 324.5 which argues for more rally in tech stocks on Monday. We could see a spike in long rates above 2%  that could generate some quick pullbacks, and we still recommend holding a sizable cash position. Crude oil closed above $60 on Thursday and that negated our Sell Signal last Thursday. It is optimal to hold a large cash position (20-25%) here in case we get an interest spike > 2% that could pressure gold and tech sectors going into April. The energy, banking and materials sectors remain our favorite investment vehicles going forward and deserve allocation from investors on a pullback into April. The USD gave us a 5-wave rally to 93.43 last week before just a 3-wave pullback into Thursday – this is bullish.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – A spiking US 10-yr rate above 2% could take away the froth away from the recovery stocks. We like the XLE, XLF, and XLB ETFs on pullbacks in the SPX into April.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – A spike in long rates above 2% could briefly knock gold down under important support at $1671. Sentiment is terrible in the PM sector and we expect a major low in the first half of April.

• Stocks – The SPX made an all-time high Friday and the QQQ closed above an important resistance line at 324.4. Bank stocks like BAC look good on dips.
• Gold – Rising rates and a surging USD pressured gold to a retest of the $1673 low on Tuesday and then we bounced back to test $1731 Sunday evening – we view this rally as corrective.  A spike in long rates could pressure gold down below $1671 support again this week.
• Silver – Silver broke below its 200-dma and undercut $24. Silver is an EW 5-waves down from the 2/1 high on the daily chart and could be close to an important trading low, but the bounce from last week to test $25 looks corrective.
• Bonds – A spike in the 10-yr US rate above 2% this week could pressure the tech stocks into early April.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil closed back above $60 and negated the sell signal from last week, but the rally pattern from $57.25 looks corrective.
• Dollar Index –The USD rallied in 5-waves to test 93.44 on the hourly chart and only pulled back in 3-waves – this could pressure the PM sector this week.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 4/5-4/6.