Market Observations for the Coming Week: Our bias is that the SPX will hold up until 4/15 (Tax Day) before more correction/consolidation. Earnings reports from Citigroup and Delta Airline should give us a good read on the Q1 economy.
4/10/17 (Commentary for Monday) We expect an important turn in our 4/11-4/13 turn window which includes the Full Moon Timing Window - it appears that this market wants to go sideways into mid-week. Our bias is that IRA contributions can hold this market up into the 4/15 Tax Day before another round of correction next week. The quarterly earnings releases from Citigroup and Delta Airlines should give some key insight into the Q1 economy. The NDX gave us a Key Reversal Day down on 4/5 as we had one of the biggest intra-day reversals in a year. IRA contributions may hold the SPX up into the 4/15 Tax Day, but we expect more selling next week. However, we are still looking for a yearly SPX high in August before a fall correction. Crude oil spiked higher Monday into the Full Moon Timing Window - geo-political tensions is adding to the move. Gold and silver gave us 5-waves down into today's Full Moon Timing Window - we may see a good bounce here. The Dollar Index gave us 5-waves down into Monday.
Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) - The SPX made a B-Wave top on 4/5 on the daily SPX chart of the 34-day Fibonacci step out from 3/1 - this now argues for a C-Wave down into May/June before a summer rally. IRA contributions could hold us up into the 4/15 Tax Day before a move lower.
Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) - Gold and GDX declined in 5-waves into Monday's Full Moon Timing Window - we should see a bounce Tuesday.
- Stocks - The SPX is moving sideways into the 4/11-4/13 turn window. Our bias is for the markets to hold up into Tax Day before another leg down.
- Gold - Gold and the GDX declined in 5-waves into the Full moon Timing Window Monday - we're looking for more bounce on Tuesday.
- Silver – Silver declined in 5-waves into the Full Moon Timing Window - we're looking for a bounce Tuesday.
- Crude Oil - Crude oil spiked into the Full Moon today - we're looking for a pullback on Tuesday.
- Bonds - Bonds refuse to decline impulsively which is bullish - too many traders are short this market. We plan to add TLT calls on weakness.
- Dollar Index – The Dollar Index fell in 5-waves into Monday - the PM sector should bounce here.
TURNING POINT DAY
The turn window for this week is 4/11-4/13 which includes the Full Moon Timing Window.