Market Observations for the Coming Week: The SPX made a high on 3/1 between the intense 2/27-2/28 New Moon/solar eclipse turn window and the potent 3/3-3/6 geo-cosmic and we have now declined in an EW 5-wave pattern on the hourly for the ES into 3/7 - this is the QUIETEST EW 5-waves down on the hourly that I've ever seen ... DANGER AHEAD ? The NDX made a possible low-volume B-Wave test of the 3/1 high after the NFP jobs report on Friday - we are looking for a C-Wave down on Monday/Tuesday
3/12/17 (Commentary for Sunday) Did the SPX make an exhaustion gap on 3/1 and an intermediate top? We think so. The NDX may have made a low-volume B-Wave test of the 3/1 high and this is another SELL signal. We are looking for a C-Wave down on the SPX and NDX on Monday as we head into the 3/15 FOMC rate hike decision. Crude oil continued to sell off on Friday going into the 3/12-3/13 Full Moon Timing Window and now the financial sector as well as the oil sector are now pressuring the SPX down. The VIX gave us an EW 5-wave advance on the hourly chart into Thursday as some traders are now seeking to hedge with "put options" - are we ready to really break higher on Monday? Overall though, this is a QUIET and COMPLACENT market and is vulnerable to a sharp leg down this week to test the "bulls metal". The release of the Republican health care proposal to replace Obama Care is stirring up some opposition especially in the realm of high-income tax deductions and low-income tax credits - it would not be surprising to see political headwinds impact the market this week. We have seen warning signs of an intermediate stock market top: the much hyped SNAP IPO launched Thursday and the dramatic cut in trading commissions by Schwab, Fidelity and TD Ameritrade. Our tactic now is to hold some IWM and QQQ puts and some UVXY calls going into Monday with the idea that we could catch the Wave 3 of a C-Wave down in the SPX. The market is giving us a sell signal on our $TICK indicator - we got a decisive break of the "zero line" on the 15-period simple moving average on the hourly $TICK - is the SPX finally willing to give us a scary leg down to rebalance sentiment? Both gold and silver declined into the NFP jobs report on Friday and bounced into the 3/12-3/13 Full Moon Timing Window - we are expecting an important low in the PM sector by 3/17. We still plan to buy dips in oil stocks, gold stocks and biotech shares on any downside volatility into 3/17. The Dollar Index is coiling to take out 102.27 by next week's rate hike, but the Euro may have made an important low at 104.98.
Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) - We may have seen an important intermediate top on the SPX on 3/1 - the NDX made a low-volume B-Wave test of the 3/1 high on Friday after the NFP jobs report - we are looking for a C-Wave down to start on Monday.
Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) - We're looking for an important turn in the 3/14-3/15 turn window which includes the 34-day Fibonacci step out from 2/08, the Full Moon Timing Window, and a potential FOMC rate hike - we're expecting an important low by 3/17.
- Stocks - The SPX bounced early Friday on the strong NFP jobs report. Most notable, however, was the NDX which may have given us a low-volume B-Wave test of the 3/1 high on Friday. We're expecting a Wave 3 of C down in the SPX on Monday.
- Gold - Gold declined into Friday's NFP jobs report and then bounced into the 3/12-3/13 Full Moon Timing Window - we're looking for an import low by 3/17, after the 3/15 FOMC rate hike action.
- Silver – Silver declined into the NFP jobs report Friday and then bounced into the 3/12-3/13 Full Moon Timing Window - we're looking for an important low by 3/17.
- Crude Oil - Crude oil is declining hard into the Full Moon and we're looking for a tradable low by Monday - we're looking to buy dips in CVX, COP and SLB.
- Bonds - US bonds declined into Friday's NFP report and then bounced - we should see a trading low by the 3/15 FOMC rate hike decision.
- Dollar Index – We're still looking for another spike above 102.27 into the 3/15 FOMC rate hike decision but the Euro may have made an important intermediate low at 104.98.
TURNING POINT DAY
The turn window for this week is 3/14-3/15 and includes the 3/15 rate hike decision.