All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 10, 2009

11/10/09 (Commentary for Tuesday)  The SPX is threatening to take out 1100, and if the price is not quickly rejected, an explosive move up could ensue. The Option Premium Ratio has dropped 5 consecutve days creating a bullish oversold condition. Gold is showing resilience above $1100 and the HUI/XAU is doing a sideways correction.  The bond market began to sell off BEFORE the 10 year auction today and made a dramatic EW 5-waves down - this is the breakdown sign that we've been waiting for - SELL Rallies. The dollar continues to sub-divide down and appears to be on a course to test the March 2008 lows.  

• Stocks -  Taking out the SPX=1100 level without a quick rejection of the price could setup a buying stampede.
• Gold – Gold is showing resilience above $1100 - the HUI/XAU is making a sideways correction. 
• Silver –Silver is underforming gold - buy on dips. 
• Crude Oil – The low bullish sentiment in oil here should be bullish for speculative long positions on oil stocks.
• Bonds - Bonds started sellng off impulsively before the 10 year auction results were announced - SELL RALLIES. 
• Dollar - The dollar appears ready to bounce correctively here.
 

TURNING POINT DAYS:

The confluence of Turn Days on Monday, 11/9 (Phi Date and Bradley turn day) and the 1-Day Reversal in gold were notable - .  

Depression Beater Portfolio: New Updates:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

    SOLD  200 shrs of CHK @ $20.82 on 4/16/09

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

    SOLD 1000 shrs of DXO at $2.97 on 4/17/09

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

    SOLD  500 shrs at $5.62 on 4/16/09

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

SOLD 500 shrs at $8.77 on 4/16/09

SOLD 500 shrs at $8.30 on 4/21/09

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

 SOLD 200 shrs of AMSC @ $20.36 on 4/17/09

 

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 9, 2009

11/09/09 (Commentary for Monday)  We argued Sunday for a breakout from the ascending triangle on Friday and then a REVERSAL DOWN because of the confluence of Turning Point Days today, but what we got was a breakout and a 90% rally day (90% up volume, 90% advancers on the NYSE) - this appears to put the market in a strong configuration for more gains after a few days of backing and filling. Gold did spike to new highs and did attempt a pullback on this 1-Day Reversal Day from Starkey - but the pull back looks corrective so far. The HUI/XAU also made a new recovery high. The bond market was bid up overnight ahead of this week's auction calendar but this week could see the bond market fail in a big way - a situation that  needs to be monitored closely. The dollar continue to sub-divide down and appears to be on a course to test the March 2008 lows.  

• Stocks -  The market did break out but is showing no signs of a reversal down and with a 90% advancing day is showing some internal strength that may have some legs.
• Gold – Gold broke out above $1100 and reversed down under the influence of 1-Day Reversal Timing from Starkey - the HUI/XAU made a new high for the rally - buy gold/gold stocks on dips. 
• Silver – Like gold, silver looks like it needs to make another leg down. 
• Crude Oil – Crude oil surged with gold and pulled back correctively.
• Bonds - Bonds are being elevated by the Fed here to weather this week's auction calendar - a break down may occur near the 11/13-11/16 Merriman turn window. 
• Dollar - The dollar appears ready to bounce correctively here.
 

TURNING POINT DAYS:

The confluence of Turn Days on Monday, 11/9 (Phi Date and Bradley turn day) and the 1-Day Reversal in gold today are notable.  

Depression Beater Portfolio: New Updates:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

    SOLD  200 shrs of CHK @ $20.82 on 4/16/09

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

    SOLD 1000 shrs of DXO at $2.97 on 4/17/09

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

    SOLD  500 shrs at $5.62 on 4/16/09

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

SOLD 500 shrs at $8.77 on 4/16/09

SOLD 500 shrs at $8.30 on 4/21/09

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

 SOLD 200 shrs of AMSC @ $20.36 on 4/17/09

 

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - November 8, 2009

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - No Update (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

11/08/09 (Commentary for Sunday) Friday's price action gave us an ascending triangle patten on the SPX which should resolve to the upside on Monday - but this could be a false breakout. Monday, 11/9, is a Bradley Turning Point Day, a Mc Hugh PHI date and 1-Day Reversal Timing from Starkey. Another Divergent Decline in the Option Premium Ratio ( 3 declines in a row) and a small move in the Mc Clellan Oscillator (+4.24) give us a MO\OPR SELL signal for Monday/Tuesday - the alignment of signals is impressive here for a REVERSAL DOWN into the 20 wk cycle low due around 11/23. Gold hit resistance at $1100 but is showing resilience there - a pull back into 11/20 would be ideal but we must be prepared for a blowoff move here to the upside. The bonds are threatening to break down here, but this week has a heavy auction calendar - the failure of the Fed to keep bonds elevated this week could result in a stunning down move.  The dollar is threatening to break to new lows Sunday night - all markets have reached an important inflection point here.

 

Long Term on Stocks- The markets declined on heavy volume from 10/21 and ralled on light volume into the 11/9 multiple turn point day  - the 20 wk cycle low is due around 11/23 - ideally we should see another leg down into the 20 wk cycle low due in late November.  

 

Long Term on PMs - A move to $1350 in gold by February is possible - ideally gold should pull back into the 11/23 low but we're in a runaway market here.  Gold is also THE STRONGEST candidate to go parabolic into late in the year based on the "Year 9 of the decade effect" that propels the strongest asset class in the ninth year of the decade.

• Stock - Looking for a false breakout above Friday's high in the SPX and a reversal down. 
• Gold - Ideally gold should reverse into the 11/23 low but a breakout above $1100 argues for a runaway market. 
• Silver – Silver should run with gold but watch silver stocks for leadership - if silver stocks falter, so will silver. 
•  Crude Oil – Crude oil was weak on Friday - maybe leading the markets down. Watch the OIH for leadership. 
• Bonds- Bonds are threatening to break down here but we need to stand aside and watch the Fed attempt to levitate this market into another heavy auction week - a failure to levitate should bring a sharp reversal down into the 11/13-16 Merriman turn window.
• Dollar- The dollar is threatening to break down Sunday night - Monday should be an interesting day. 

TURNING POINT DAY:

Monday, 11/9, has a multitude of Turning Point Day signals:   a Bradley Turning Point Day, a McHugh PHI date, and a MO\OPR sell signal. Bonds have a turn window on 11/13-11/16.

Depression Beater Portfolio: No Updates:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

    SOLD  200 shrs of CHK @ $20.82 on 4/16/09

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

    SOLD 1000 shrs of DXO at $2.97 on 4/17/09

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

    SOLD  500 shrs at $5.62 on 4/16/09

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

SOLD 500 shrs at $8.77 on 4/16/09

SOLD 500 shrs at $8.30 on 4/21/09

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

 SOLD 200 shrs of AMSC @ $20.36 on 4/17/09

 

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 6, 2009

11/06/09 (Commentary for Thursday) A second consecutive Daily Divergent Decline in the Option Premium Ratio argues for weakness tomorrow but it's all up to the market reaction to the Employment Report - with that said, the idea of a corrective bounce from the Full Moon Timing Window into today is getting a little stretched. Market internals improved sharply today but the Mc Clellan Oscillator worked off its hugely oversold reading (< -300) from last Friday.  We're also close to the 11/9 Mc Hugh Turning Point Date. Gold pulled off the high made yesterday but 1-Day Reversal Timing from Starkey has not been confirmed yet. Bonds appear to be breaking down impulsively here and the dollar appears ready for a corrective bounce. 

• Stocks -  It appeared that the rally off the Full Moon is wedging out in several key indices - an important low around 11/23 is still anticipated.
• Gold – Gold tested $1100 - looking for a short-term pullback. 
• Silver – Silver did not make a new rally high today - an important divergence with gold. 
• Crude Oil – Crude oil pulled back today and the OIH price action was rather tepid.  A more important low should be made around 11/23.
• Bonds - Bonds may be breaking down here - taking out 118 could lead to a quick 3 point decline. 
• Dollar - The dollar appears ready to bounce correctively here.
 

TURNING POINT DAYS:

The Merriman Turn Window for gold on 10/31-11/2 and the Full Moon Timing Window led to an explosive rally for gold.  1-Day Reversal Timing was not confirmed on Wednesday. 

Depression Beater Portfolio: New Updates:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

    SOLD  200 shrs of CHK @ $20.82 on 4/16/09

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

    SOLD 1000 shrs of DXO at $2.97 on 4/17/09

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

    SOLD  500 shrs at $5.62 on 4/16/09

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

SOLD 500 shrs at $8.77 on 4/16/09

SOLD 500 shrs at $8.30 on 4/21/09

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

 SOLD 200 shrs of AMSC @ $20.36 on 4/17/09

 

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 5, 2009

11/05/09 (Commentary for Thursday) A second consecutive Daily Divergent Decline in the Option Premium Ratio argues for weakness tomorrow but it's all up to the market reaction to the Employment Report - with that said, the idea of a corrective bounce from the Full Moon Timing Window into today is getting a little stretched. Market internals improved sharply today but the Mc Clellan Oscillator worked off its hugely oversold reading (< -300) from last Friday.  We're also close to the 11/9 Mc Hugh Turning Point Date. Gold pulled off the high made yesterday but 1-Day Reversal Timing from Starkey has not been confirmed yet. Bonds appear to be breaking down impulsively here and the dollar appears ready for a corrective bounce. 

• Stocks -  It appeared that the rally off the Full Moon is wedging out in several key indices - an important low around 11/23 is still anticipated.
• Gold – Gold tested $1100 - looking for a short-term pullback. 
• Silver – Silver did not make a new rally high today - an important divergence with gold. 
• Crude Oil – Crude oil pulled back today and the OIH price action was rather tepid.  A more important low should be made around 11/23.
• Bonds - Bonds may be breaking down here - taking out 118 could lead to a quick 3 point decline. 
• Dollar - The dollar appears ready to bounce correctively here.
 

TURNING POINT DAYS:

The Merriman Turn Window for gold on 10/31-11/2 and the Full Moon Timing Window led to an explosive rally for gold.  1-Day Reversal Timing was not confirmed on Wednesday. 

Depression Beater Portfolio: New Updates:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

    SOLD  200 shrs of CHK @ $20.82 on 4/16/09

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

    SOLD 1000 shrs of DXO at $2.97 on 4/17/09

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

    SOLD  500 shrs at $5.62 on 4/16/09

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

SOLD 500 shrs at $8.77 on 4/16/09

SOLD 500 shrs at $8.30 on 4/21/09

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

 SOLD 200 shrs of AMSC @ $20.36 on 4/17/09

 

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 4, 2009

11/04/09 (Commentary for Wednesday) Our idea for the week was for a corrective market bounce from the Full Moon on Monday into the FOMC announcement on Wednesday - we may have gotten just that today.  The late decline today may be the start of the next leg down into the 11/23 cycle low - if we get a corrective bounce in the morning - SHORT THE RALLY. A Large Divergent Decline on the Option Premium Ratio argues for weakness tomorrw. Gold tested the next resistance level at $1100 and pulled back - today was 1-Day Reversal Timing from Starky but a reversal has not been confirmed yet. Bonds appear to be breaking down impulsively here and the dollar appears ready for a corrective bounce. 

• Stocks -  The next leg down may have started late today - SELL 3-wave corrective rallies.
• Gold – Gold tested $1100 - looking for a short-term pullback. 
• Silver – Silver did not make a new rally high today - an important divergence with gold. 
• Crude Oil – Crude oil bounced into today - may correct into later this month.  A more important low should be made around 11/23.
• Bonds - Bonds may be breaking down here - took out last week's high and reversed down impulsively to confirm Weekly Reversal Timing from Starkey - sell rallies.
• Dollar - The dollar appears ready to bounce correctively here.
 

TURNING POINT DAYS:

The Merriman Turn Window for gold on 10/31-11/2 and the Full Moon Timing Window led to an explosive rally for gold.  1-Day Reversal Timing due today could bring a short-term setback for gold.

Depression Beater Portfolio: New Updates:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

    SOLD  200 shrs of CHK @ $20.82 on 4/16/09

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

    SOLD 1000 shrs of DXO at $2.97 on 4/17/09

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

    SOLD  500 shrs at $5.62 on 4/16/09

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

SOLD 500 shrs at $8.77 on 4/16/09

SOLD 500 shrs at $8.30 on 4/21/09

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

 SOLD 200 shrs of AMSC @ $20.36 on 4/17/09

 

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 3, 2009

11/03/09 (Commentary for Tuesday) We saw some seismic events in the financial world today - an explosive rally in gold after the Full Moon Timing Window and a potential breakdown in bonds. The SPX bounced weakly today on low volume - should bounce more tomorrow into the FOMC announcement before a reversal down into the 11/23 20 wk cycle low. Gold is due 1-Day Reversal Timing from Starkey tomorrow and should top out for the short term. Bonds may be breaking down here - Starkey called for important Weekly Reversal Timing this week and it has been confirmed to the downside - sell rallies. 

• Stocks -  Looking for more SPX bounce into the FOMC announcement on Wednesday before the next leg down that should bottom around 11/23 on the 20 wk cycle low. The tape looks week.
• Gold – Gold exploded up out of the Full Moon Timing Window - looking for a short-term top Wednesday - which is 1-Day Reversal Timing from Starkey.
• Silver – Silver reversed up hard today and is due to make a top on Wednesday - which is 1-Day Reversal Timing. 
• Crude Oil – Crude oil may have made a short-term low on the Full Moon today - looking for a bounce into Wednesday.  A more important low should be made around 11/23.
• Bonds - Bonds may be breaking down here - took out last week's high and reversed down impulsively to confirm Weekly Reversal Timing from Starkey - sell rallies.
• Dollar - The dollar spiked up overnight and fell hard - not sure what to make of recent action.
 

TURNING POINT DAYS:

The Merriman Turn Window for gold on 10/31-11/2 and the Full moon Timing Window led to an explosive rally for gold. 

Depression Beater Portfolio: New Updates:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

    SOLD  200 shrs of CHK @ $20.82 on 4/16/09

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

    SOLD 1000 shrs of DXO at $2.97 on 4/17/09

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

    SOLD  500 shrs at $5.62 on 4/16/09

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

SOLD 500 shrs at $8.77 on 4/16/09

SOLD 500 shrs at $8.30 on 4/21/09

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

 SOLD 200 shrs of AMSC @ $20.36 on 4/17/09

 

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 2, 2009

11/02/09 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX registered a positive day but the volume was weak and the internals were mixed - still, since the SPX  finished a 5-wave pattern on the Full Moon and since the low of the day was within 5 minutes of the strongest influence of the Full Moon,  we may have started a bounce that should last into the FOMC announcement period on Wednesday. In any case the SPX trend is down and the cycle picture looks for a low around 11/23. Gold appears to have confirmed Starkey Projected Low Timing and could have started a strong rally to test the recent highs. Bonds made a corrective decline today and appear ready to make challenge the highs made last week. The dollar appears to have finished a corrective EW a-b-c bounce and should head lower here - tomorrow's action should confirm the pattern one way or another.

• Stocks -  Looking for a SPX bounce into the FOMC announcement on Wednesday before the next leg down that should bottom around 11/23 on the 20 wk cycle low.
• Gold – Gold confirmed Starkey Projected Low Timing in the Full Moon Timing window - looking for a test of the $1071 highs by Wednesday - which is 1-Day Reversal Timing from Starkey.
• Silver – Silver reversed up hard today and is due to make a top on Wednesday - which is 1-Day Reversal Timing. 
• Crude Oil – Crude oil may have made a short-term low on the Full Moon today - looking for a bounce into Wednesday.  A more important low should be made around 11/23.
• Bonds - Bonds appear ready to challenge the highs from last week. 
• Dollar - The dollar may have finished a corrective EW a-b-c pattern on the 5 min chart - tomorrow's action should see a strong move down.

TURNING POINT DAYS:

The Merriman Turn Window for gold on 10/31-11/2 and the Full moon Timing Window appear to have bottomed gold and the SPX for the short term - looking for bounces into Wednesday. 

Depression Beater Portfolio: New Updates:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

    SOLD  200 shrs of CHK @ $20.82 on 4/16/09

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

    SOLD 1000 shrs of DXO at $2.97 on 4/17/09

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

    SOLD  500 shrs at $5.62 on 4/16/09

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

SOLD 500 shrs at $8.77 on 4/16/09

SOLD 500 shrs at $8.30 on 4/21/09

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

 SOLD 200 shrs of AMSC @ $20.36 on 4/17/09

 

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - November 1, 2009

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - No Update (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

11/01/09 (Commentary for Sunday) Friday was a terrible market day - a 90% down down day that has followed a string of distribution days in recent weeks. The rally on Thursday was completely reversed on heavier volume and the market closed on its lows again. Trendline breaks from the March lows on all indices were very obvious and it appears that the market is on a course to make important 20 wk cycles lows in about three weeks. The market, however, is once again extremely oversold on the McClellan Oscillator (< -300) and the all/exchange put/call ratio gave us an extreme reading (1.17) which argues for some kind of bounce on Monday - this may be  another Bear Trap like in July but a 3-wave corrective rally in the SPX should be shorted on Monday. One ray of hope was the reversal in the HUI/XAU late in Friday's session - that and the 10/31-11/1 Merriman turn window argue for a bounce here in gold and gold stocks which may lead the market higher for a few days. Bonds held support at 118 but the rally pattern from early June looks corrective and a big decline could get underway soon.  Credit conditions appear to be worsening around the world and the dollar rally here may have some legs.

 

Long Term on Stocks- The SPX peak on 10/19 looks like an important high - the 20 wk cycle low is due around 11/23 - we could see an important low.  

 

Long Term on PMs - We believe that gold should see a $300 rally between now and the Spring - gold tested $1070 this week and pulled back for a short-term correction. World deflationary forces appear to be getting the upper hand over the inflationary policies of the central banks.  Gold is also a candidate to go parabolic into late in the year based on the "Year 9 of the decade effect" that propels the strongest asset class in the ninth year of the decade.

• Stock - Looking for a bounce on Monday - a 3-wave rally on the SPX should be shorted.
• Gold - The HUI/XAU bounced late Friday and the 10/31-11/1 Merriman Turn Window and Starkey Projected Low Timing may give gold a B-Wave bounce here to test the $1071 high. 
• Silver – Silver should bounce Monday as well - watch silver stocks for leadership - if silver stocks lag, the gold stock rally could soon falter. 
•  Crude Oil – Crude oil looks positioned for a bounce on Monday. Watch the OIH for leadership.
• Bonds- Bonds held 118 support but a rally above last week's high should be shorted aggressively according to Starkey geometric timing.
• Dollar- The dollar's rally could have some legs here after more correction. 

TURNING POINT DAY:

We have 1-Day Reversal Timing for gold and silver on Wednesday. 10/31-11/1 was a Merriman Turn Window for gold.

Depression Beater Portfolio: No Updates:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

    SOLD  200 shrs of CHK @ $20.82 on 4/16/09

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

    SOLD 1000 shrs of DXO at $2.97 on 4/17/09

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

    SOLD  500 shrs at $5.62 on 4/16/09

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

SOLD 500 shrs at $8.77 on 4/16/09

SOLD 500 shrs at $8.30 on 4/21/09

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

 SOLD 200 shrs of AMSC @ $20.36 on 4/17/09

 

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09