Market Observations for the Coming Week: Like it always does, the US bond market is rising rates ahead of the Fed. Because of historic bond market overvaluation and the global illiquidity in sovereign debt markets because of the manic use of QE, we feel that that US bonds are vulnerable to a rapid decline that could turn chaotic in the near term.
05/06/15 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX sold off on the open and may have finished a EW 5-wave decline pattern before a late reversal up. Rising interest rates, weak economic numbers, and "overvaluation comments" from Janet Yellen are plaguing the market here. Rising global bond interest rates, bond illiquidity and a broken parabolic run in the USD is a "ringing bell" that a historic top has been made in sovereign bonds. Bonds must be shorted on bounces since the chance of a rapid and disorderly decline into June is high. The Fed is reticent to raise rates anytime soon, especially after the almost zero GDP growth in Q1, but the market is doing it anyway. We saw 5th wave blow offs on the hourly charts for the NDX and SPX into 4/27 and we pulled back into the Full Moon Timing Window before bouncing on Monday. Today's selloff took out last week's low and opens the door for an eventual test of the SPX 200-day MA, but we're looking for a rally into Thursday first. The decline in the USD is giving life to the downtrodden commodity sector with oil and copper. We saw 5th wave blow offs on the hourly charts for the NDX and SPX into 4/27 and we pulled back into the Full Moon Timing Window before bouncing on Monday. The bonds made an important secondary peak on 4/3 and are sub-dividing down aggressively - we would like to add to shorts on a bounce. Gold and silver bounced into the Full Moon but have only declined correctively into today - however, weakness in the gold stocks are holding gold and silver back here. We expect that intense volatility in stocks, bonds and gold is right around the corner. Crude oil spiked to $62 making highs for the year again, but we reversed down after the NYSE open. The market is reacting to a number of economic indicators that are portraying a big slowdown in global trade and a slowing US economy - of course a bad winter accounts for some of the weakness but bigger factors may be at work which the market may try to discount in the May/June time window. US shale oil production appears to be leveling off which may give fundamental support as we enter spring but the Saudis have ramped their production to all-time highs and the market does not seem to be paying attention to this. The USD appears to be declining impulsively which is sparking a rally in commodities.
Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) - The NDX and SPX made marginal new highs last week but the decline in the bonds threaten to kick off a 10% decline in the SPX and NDX.
- Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold bounced into the Full Moon but has just pulled back correctively - gold may be starting a rally into June.
- Stocks – The NDX and SPX took out last week's low and that could usher in a retest of the 200-day MA for the SPX but first we should rally tomorrow as we go into the NFP jobs report on Friday morning.
- Gold - Gold pulled back on Wednesday after the gold stocks reversed down near the open.
- Silver – Silver is looking stronger than gold and SLW reversed up late - looking for a bounce on Thursday.
- Bonds - Bonds are declining impulsively in a seasonally negative period - sell bounces.
- Crude Oil – Crude oil spiked to $62 before a big reversal late in the day.
- Dollar Index – The USD is sub-dividing down impulsively on the hourly chart - looking for more rally in commodities.
TURNING POINT DAY:
Our turn window for this week is 5/3, the Full Moon - looking for a trading low in stocks and a high in oil.
Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)
WEEKLY COMMENTS: Update for 2/14/14: On the CDNX, the 50-day MA has crossed up through the 200-day MA giving us a buy signal on the junior resource sector. At this stage we would only focus on those stocks that were washed out in 2013 and have adequate financing to carry them through 2014 drilling activity.
- Aroway Energy (ARW.V, C$0.040 -0.010) – This western Canadian junior is part of a very sweet JV deal with a private partner in the Peace River basin – it's production share should climb from 669 BOE/day (75% black oil) to over 1200 BOE/day later in 2012 – management has selected a good slate of properties for drilling and it is bearing fruit. Buy on dips. Use a 20% stop from purchase price.
- Evolving Gold (EVGD.TO, C$0.024 +.001) - UPDATE: This stock has two world-class finds in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV. The problem is that the company needs a financing and could be forced to sell a world-class asset for pennies on the dollar.
- Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.35 -.14) - UPDATE: Uranium prices are recovering and the fundamentals are getting a perfect storm. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer.
- Energy Fuels (EFR.TO, C$5.75 -.21) – Finished acquisition of STM.TO in early September - building up a position as a strong US producer of uranium in a tight market.
- Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.0350 -.0000) – UPDATE: This stock needs to get its Mongolian coal mine into a positive cash-flow situation to support its power plant project and other endeavors without diluting the common shareholder to zero.
- Gryphon Gold (GYPHQ, $.029 -.000) - UPDATE: De-listed stock. Good asset but needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.
JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:
(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 30% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)
RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:
1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.
2) Due your own Due Diligence.
3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.