All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - March 17, 2010

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - New Update (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

Wednesday

3/17/10 (Commentary for Wednesday) The  SPX made a new recovery high intra-day before a late sell off attempt. With the Spring Equinox over the weekend, the next chance of a reversal appears to be next Monday or Tuesday after the triple-witching expiration. Gold rallied early to take out Tuesday's high but then appeared to sell off impulsively arguing for lower prices soon - tomorrow's price action will be key. Bonds pulled back correctively and appear to want to go higher here. The Dollar Index bounced correctively today - tomorrow's price action will be key. It's not the time to blindly buy the dips, but it's still a risky short as some of the down market cycles have not exerted themselves. The weak IBM chart argues for a negative pre-announcement in the not-too-distant future - this has a chance to roil the market.

• Stocks –  The market appears to want to grind higher into Monday or Tuesday - once the Spring Equinox, triple witching expiration, and the  geo-cosmic  signatures have passed, the market may see another reversal attempt.
• Gold – Gold's impulsive decline on the balance of the day keeps us cautious - the 36-wk cycle low may not have bottomed yet.  
• Silver – Silver gave us a sideways consolidation pattern for most of the day. 
• Crude Oil – Crude Oil consolidated today - looks ready to test January's high. 
• Bonds - Bonds making a sideways consolidation pattern around 118 - could see higher prices tomorrow. 
• Dollar - We were wrong about the short-term Dollar Index rally - this index declined in a 5-wave pattern on the 5 min chart and just bounced correctively today.

TURNING POINT DAY

 

 1-Day Reversal Timing was due for gold on Tuesday - we got a solid rally instead of a reversal down.

Depression Beater Portfolio: New Updates: (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended Holdings:

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

    SOLD  200 shrs of CHK @ $20.82 on 4/16/09

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

    SOLD 1000 shrs of DXO at $2.97 on 4/17/09

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

    SOLD  500 shrs at $5.62 on 4/16/09

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

SOLD 500 shrs at $8.77 on 4/16/09

SOLD 500 shrs at $8.30 on 4/21/09

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

 SOLD 200 shrs of AMSC @ $20.36 on 4/17/09

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

14) Bought 1000 shrs of KBX @ $1.15 on 12/22/09

Working orders:

1) Buy 1000 shrs AAU @$0.95 GTC

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer - March 9, 2010

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - New Update (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

3/9/10 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX is testing the 1150 area - we  either peaked today or will tomorrow. The TRIN5 gave us an overbought sell signal of 4.08 (very reliable the past year) and total option volume traded generated a sell signal. With the VIX ~ 18 this is a good place to add some April puts in anticipation of a short and scary pull back going into the nine month cycle low due late March. Gold confirmed 1-Day Reversal Timing to the upside today but the bounce looks corrective - looking for a decline into the 36-wk cycle low due around 3/21. Bonds are bouncing correctively here - sell 3-wave corrective bounces.  The breakout in the NYSE A/D line has kept a flow of new money into the market. Our bias is that a high this week will be met with a scary decline into late March/early April before the next advance phase. The increasing breath of the market argues for ongoing strength in the junior mining sector especially after the pull back in gold finishes.  The Dollar Index should rally into 3/21. 

 

• Stocks – The SPX tested 1150 before the market turned down - a decline into the nine month cycle low is due in early April.
• Gold – Gold declined in an EW 5-wave pattern on the 5 min chart from Thursday into this morning - looking for a decline into the 3/21 36-wk cycle low. 
• Silver – Silver is also due a cycle low in mid to late March. 
• Crude Oil – Crude Oil has Weekly Reversal Timing due this week - looking for a short-term top and then a decline into late March.
• Bonds - Bonds gave us a weak bounce after an EW 5-wave decline - sell rallies. 
• Dollar - The Dollar Index pulled back today but our bias is for at least one more rally attempt into 3/21. 

TURNING POINT DAY

 

Gold is due 1-Day Reversal Timing on Tuesday. A high in the SPX is due mid-week. 

Depression Beater Portfolio: New Updates: (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended Holdings:

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

    SOLD  200 shrs of CHK @ $20.82 on 4/16/09

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

    SOLD 1000 shrs of DXO at $2.97 on 4/17/09

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

    SOLD  500 shrs at $5.62 on 4/16/09

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

SOLD 500 shrs at $8.77 on 4/16/09

SOLD 500 shrs at $8.30 on 4/21/09

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

 SOLD 200 shrs of AMSC @ $20.36 on 4/17/09

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

14) Bought 1000 shrs of KBX @ $1.15 on 12/22/09

Working orders:

1) Buy 1000 shrs AAU @$0.95 GTC