All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - September 29, 2016

Market Observations for the Coming Week:   The NDX made all-time highs last week but the SPX and DJIA were not even close - this is a case of inter-market bearish divergence which is a risk in the short-term. We're inclined to buy early weakness Friday in the GLD and GDX for at least a trade.

9/29/16 (Commentary for Thursday) Hedge fund liquidations from Deutsche Bank spooked the market Thursday and hit the financials hard. This could be the catalyst for a bigger global sell off or just the latest "brick in the market wall of worry". Counter-party risk concerns and liquidity runs are troubling Deutsche bank - we used today's weakness in the financial sector to add calls in GS but trading on Friday will be key. Solar-lunar cycles again argued for a wide-range day and we got that in gold, oil stocks and gold stocks. Oil stocks could rise much higher going into October - we like the OIH stocks here on dips. We are planning to buy early weakness Friday in the GDX for a bounce into October. In GDX, we may have seen the end of an EW a-b-c correction from 9/7 on the 21-day Fibonacci step out. The gold stocks reversed sharply higher from early weakness on Wednesday - we may just have seen a major low in the PM sector - but we still need to see confirmation on Friday. The NDX declined in a wave C of an EW a-b-c correction on the hourly chart - we are looking to buy dips in the QQQ early Friday. We took profits in our calls on CVX, SLB and COP but we got back in before the close. Crude oil made higher highs today but gold was pressured early - we are still looking for a reversal up in gold by Friday/Monday. Biotech (IBB) gave us a scary 3-wave correction today, however, we still like large-cap bio-tech companies (AGN, AMGN, BIIB, CELG and GILD) on dips early Friday. With the 7-yr Shemittah cycle and the 3-yr commodity cycle bottoming on 2/11, our bias remains "bullish but short-term cautious" despite the Brexit vote to leave the EU and all the "crash talk" that permeates social media currently. We think that a major 4th wave correction ended on 2/11 and a 5th wave higher in the SPX is still in effect.

   

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) - The OPEC production cap plan could boost the SPX to a test of 2195 by October led by the oil sector.

             

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – The GDX declined in EW 5-waves on the hourly from early 9/22 into early today - this could be the end of an EW a-b-c decline from 9/7 - we are looking for a big reversal higher Friday or Monday. With big negative sentiment coming from gold newsletter writers, we may have seen a major low in the PM sector.
  • Stocks - Troubles with Deutsche Bank hit the financials and the whole market hard today - we added some GS calls. Friday's trading will be key.
  • Gold - Gold gave us a 5-wave decline on the hourly chart into early today and reversed higher - we need to see a strong move higher in gold Friday or Monday to confirm an important low.
  • Silver – Many silver stocks finished 5-waves down into Thursday before a strong reversal higher - we plan to buy dips for a rally into October.
  • Crude Oil - Crude oil made higher highs today as oil stocks corrected - we favor OIH stocks on dips.
  • Bonds - Bonds rebounded late as stocks sold off - we're still flat here.
  • Dollar Index – The USD is close to finishing an EW a-b-c bounce on the hourly late Thursday - we are looking for a big reversal up in gold on Friday/Monday.

TURNING POINT DAY    

The turn window on 9/26-9/27 will be key for several markets this week.

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

WEEKLY COMMENTS: Update for 7/05/15: The CDNX remains mired in a deep, historic bear market since the April 2011 which led the turn down in the gold and silver market by a few months. To us, junior mining stocks are just trading affairs unless the 50-day MA crosses up through the 200-day MA. In our best guess, we feel that the CDNX and the gold mining juniors could bottom by October in advance of our target of April 2016 for a final low in gold and silver - typically the gold mining stocks bottom 6-9 months before final lows in gold and silver. We have read that up to 45% of junior gold/silver stocks only have enough cash on hand to continue operations for the next quarter. Many recent equity-based financing are small and done just to keep the lights on. Until the CDNX turns up , it is best just to focus on well-financed juniors with great assets and positive cash flow. Now is the time to follow these stories since we are in the late stages of this brutal bear market.

• Great Lakes Mining (GLKIF, C$0.0650 -.0079) – NEW Recommendation 7/5/15 - This is a unique situation in the high-end graphite market. This company is scheduled to open a factory to upgrade graphite for specialty applications by O-October. This vertical integration business model adds a new dimension to this company and is worth following.
• Aroway Energy (ARW.V, C$0.010 +0.000) – This western Canadian junior is part of a very sweet JV deal with a private partner in the Peace River basin – it's production share should climb from 669 BOE/day (75% black oil) to over 1200 BOE/day later in 2012 – management has selected a good slate of properties for drilling and it is bearing fruit. Buy on dips. Use a 20% stop from purchase price.
• Evolving Gold (EVGD.TO, C$0.0358 -.0000) - UPDATE: This stock has two world-class finds in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV. The problem is t-hat the company needs a financing and could be forced to sell a world-class asset for pennies on the dollar.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $1.01 -0.00) - UPDATE: Uranium prices are recovering and the fundamentals are getting a perfect storm. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer.
• Energy Fuels (EFR.TO, C$2.04 +0.03) – Finished acquisition of STM.TO in early September - building up a position as a strong US producer of uranium in a tight market.
• Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $2.653 -0.0000) – UPDATE: This stock needs to get its Mongolian coal mine into a positive cash-flow situation to support its power plant project and other endeavors without diluting the common shareholder to zero.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPHQ, $.0018 +.0008) - UPDATE: De-listed stock. Good asset but needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer - September 28, 2016

Market Observations for the Coming Week:   The NDX made all-time highs last week but the SPX and DJIA were not even close - this is a case of inter-market bearish divergence which gave us a correction into Tuesday. We're inclined to buy early weakness Thursday in the QQQ and GDX and look for a rally into Friday.

9/28/16 (Commentary for Wednesday) The OPEC production cap agreement gave us the big reversal higher in crude oil that we were looking for - we plan to buy the oil drillers(OIH) on dips. The oil sector boosted the SPX into a late day rally while the biotech sector stayed down. Solar-lunar cycles argued for a wide-range reversal day today and we got that in crude oil, oil stocks and gold stocks. Oil stocks could rise much higher going into October - we like the OIH stocks here on dips. We are planning to buy early weakness Thursday in QQQ and GDX for a rally into Friday. In GDX, we may have seen the end of a EW a-b-c correction from 9/7, and the gold stocks reversed sharply higher from early weakness - we may just have seen a major low this morning in the PM sector - we need to see confirmation on Thursday. Led by all-time highs in AMZN, the NDX reversed higher from early weakness - we are looking to buy dips in the QQQ. We raised a lot of cash on Friday and put a lot of it to work today in gold stocks, oil stocks and biotech - we got in CVX, SLB and COP before the big surge higher. Crude oil rocketed higher after news of the OPEC production cap plan which caught the market napping - money flow from underperforming hedge funds should drive oil stocks higher here into October. Gold gave us that "one last leg down" into today's Comex option expiration and we are looking for a big reversal into Friday. Biotech (IBB) finished a 5-wave advance on the hourly into early Friday and we pulled back into early Wednesday - we still like large-cap bio-tech companies (AGN, AMGN, BIIB, CELG and GILD) on dips early Thursday. With the 7-yr Shemittah cycle and the 3-yr commodity cycle bottoming on 2/11, our bias remains "bullish but short-term cautious" despite the Brexit vote to leave the EU and all the "crash talk" that permeates social media currently. We think that a major 4th wave correction ended on 2/11 and a 5th wave higher in the SPX is still in effect.

   

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) - The OPEC production cap plan could boost the SPX to a test of 2195 by October led by the oil sector.

             

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – The GDX declined in EW 5-waves on the hourly from early 9/22 into early today - this could be the end of an EW a-b-c decline from 9/7 - we are looking for a big reversal higher into Friday. With big negative sentiment from gold newsletter writers, we may have seen a major low in the PM sector.
  • Stocks - The OPEC production cap deal allowed the energy sector to boost the SPX higher - we plan to buy dips in the OIH stocks.
  • Gold - The GDX gave us a 5-wave decline on the hourly chart into early today and reversed strongly higher - we need to see a strong move higher in gold Thursday to confirm an important low.
  • Silver – Many silver stocks finished 5-waves down into today before a strong reversal higher - we plan to buy dips for a rally into Friday.
  • Crude Oil - Crude oil reversed sharply higher as expected after the OPEC production cap - we plan to buy dips in the OIH stocks for more rally into October.
  • Bonds - Bonds sold off late as stocks surged - we are flat bonds here.
  • Dollar Index – The USD finished an EW a-b-c bounce on the hourly today and reversed down - we are looking for a big bounce in gold and oil into Friday.

TURNING POINT DAY    

The turn window on 9/26-9/27 will be key for several markets this week.

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

WEEKLY COMMENTS: Update for 7/05/15: The CDNX remains mired in a deep, historic bear market since the April 2011 which led the turn down in the gold and silver market by a few months. To us, junior mining stocks are just trading affairs unless the 50-day MA crosses up through the 200-day MA. In our best guess, we feel that the CDNX and the gold mining juniors could bottom by October in advance of our target of April 2016 for a final low in gold and silver - typically the gold mining stocks bottom 6-9 months before final lows in gold and silver. We have read that up to 45% of junior gold/silver stocks only have enough cash on hand to continue operations for the next quarter. Many recent equity-based financing are small and done just to keep the lights on. Until the CDNX turns up , it is best just to focus on well-financed juniors with great assets and positive cash flow. Now is the time to follow these stories since we are in the late stages of this brutal bear market.

• Great Lakes Mining (GLKIF, C$0.0650 -.0079) – NEW Recommendation 7/5/15 - This is a unique situation in the high-end graphite market. This company is scheduled to open a factory to upgrade graphite for specialty applications by O-October. This vertical integration business model adds a new dimension to this company and is worth following.
• Aroway Energy (ARW.V, C$0.010 +0.000) – This western Canadian junior is part of a very sweet JV deal with a private partner in the Peace River basin – it's production share should climb from 669 BOE/day (75% black oil) to over 1200 BOE/day later in 2012 – management has selected a good slate of properties for drilling and it is bearing fruit. Buy on dips. Use a 20% stop from purchase price.
• Evolving Gold (EVGD.TO, C$0.0358 -.0000) - UPDATE: This stock has two world-class finds in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV. The problem is t-hat the company needs a financing and could be forced to sell a world-class asset for pennies on the dollar.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $1.01 -0.00) - UPDATE: Uranium prices are recovering and the fundamentals are getting a perfect storm. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer.
• Energy Fuels (EFR.TO, C$2.04 +0.03) – Finished acquisition of STM.TO in early September - building up a position as a strong US producer of uranium in a tight market.
• Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $2.653 -0.0000) – UPDATE: This stock needs to get its Mongolian coal mine into a positive cash-flow situation to support its power plant project and other endeavors without diluting the common shareholder to zero.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPHQ, $.0018 +.0008) - UPDATE: De-listed stock. Good asset but needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer - September 27, 2016

Market Observations for the Coming Week:   The NDX made all-time highs last week but the SPX and DJIA were not even close - this is a case of inter-market bearish divergence which gave us a correction into Tuesday. We're inclined to buy weakness early Wednesday in the QQQ and GDX and look for a rebound into Thursday.

9/27/16 (Commentary for Tuesday) Clinton's overnight bounce from her debate performance faded quickly this morning but the market ended higher today. We are inclined to buy early weakness Wednesday in QQQ and GDX for a bounce into Thursday. In GDX, we may have seen the end of a EW a-b-c correction from 9/7, and the gold stocks look ready for a sizable bounce. The NDX made all-time highs on Thursday and we only saw a 3-wave correction into today - this is bullish for higher highs. We raised a lot of cash on Friday and put some to work today in gold stocks, oil stocks and biotech. Crude oil remained under pressure Tuesday but the oil stocks perked up - we're looking for a big reversal up after the OPEC meeting. Gold could see one more leg down into Wednesday's Comex option expiration and then we're looking for a reversal higher into Thursday. Biotech (IBB) finished a 5-wave advance on the hourly into early Friday and we pulled back into Tuesday - we still like large-cap bio-tech companies (AGN, AMGN, BIIB, CELG and GILD) on dips early Wednesday. With the 7-yr Shemittah cycle and the 3-yr commodity cycle bottoming on 2/11, our bias remains "bullish but short-term cautious" despite the Brexit vote to leave the EU and all the "crash talk" that permeates social media currently. We think that a major 4th wave correction ended on 2/11 and a 5th wave higher in the NDX is still in effect.

   

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) - The NDX finished a 5-wave rally from 9/12 to all-time highs on Thursday - we may have finished a 3-wave correction early Tuesday.

             

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – The GDX declined in EW 5-waves on the hourly from early Thursday into today and this could be the end of an EW a-b-c decline from 9/7 - we are looking for a reversal higher by Wednesday.
  • Stocks - The NDX is our leading sector and we just pulled back in 3-waves into Tuesday - we're looking to buy weakness early Wednesday.
  • Gold - The GDX gave us a 5-wave decline on the hourly chart into Tuesday - we're looking for a reversal higher early Wednesday on Comex option expiration.
  • Silver – Many silver stocks finished 5-waves down into Tuesday - we're looking for a reversal higher by Wednesday.
  • Crude Oil - Crude oil may need one more lower low into early Wednesday before a tradable low is made - we're looking for a big reversal higher Wednesday.
  • Bonds - Bonds held up well on Tuesday - we are inclined to buy dips.
  • Dollar Index – The USD may be finishing an EW a-b-c bounce on the hourly - we may have reversed down today - we are looking for a big bounce in gold and oil Wednesday.

TURNING POINT DAY    

The turn window on 9/26-9/27 will be key for several markets this week.

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

WEEKLY COMMENTS: Update for 7/05/15: The CDNX remains mired in a deep, historic bear market since the April 2011 which led the turn down in the gold and silver market by a few months. To us, junior mining stocks are just trading affairs unless the 50-day MA crosses up through the 200-day MA. In our best guess, we feel that the CDNX and the gold mining juniors could bottom by October in advance of our target of April 2016 for a final low in gold and silver - typically the gold mining stocks bottom 6-9 months before final lows in gold and silver. We have read that up to 45% of junior gold/silver stocks only have enough cash on hand to continue operations for the next quarter. Many recent equity-based financing are small and done just to keep the lights on. Until the CDNX turns up , it is best just to focus on well-financed juniors with great assets and positive cash flow. Now is the time to follow these stories since we are in the late stages of this brutal bear market.

• Great Lakes Mining (GLKIF, C$0.0729 -.0003) – NEW Recommendation 7/5/15 - This is a unique situation in the high-end graphite market. This company is scheduled to open a factory to upgrade graphite for specialty applications by O-October. This vertical integration business model adds a new dimension to this company and is worth following.
• Aroway Energy (ARW.V, C$0.010 +0.000) – This western Canadian junior is part of a very sweet JV deal with a private partner in the Peace River basin – it's production share should climb from 669 BOE/day (75% black oil) to over 1200 BOE/day later in 2012 – management has selected a good slate of properties for drilling and it is bearing fruit. Buy on dips. Use a 20% stop from purchase price.
• Evolving Gold (EVGD.TO, C$0.0358 -.0000) - UPDATE: This stock has two world-class finds in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV. The problem is t-hat the company needs a financing and could be forced to sell a world-class asset for pennies on the dollar.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $1.01 -0.04) - UPDATE: Uranium prices are recovering and the fundamentals are getting a perfect storm. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer.
• Energy Fuels (EFR.TO, C$2.01 -0.07) – Finished acquisition of STM.TO in early September - building up a position as a strong US producer of uranium in a tight market.
• Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $2.653 -0.0000) – UPDATE: This stock needs to get its Mongolian coal mine into a positive cash-flow situation to support its power plant project and other endeavors without diluting the common shareholder to zero.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPHQ, $.0018 +.0008) - UPDATE: De-listed stock. Good asset but needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer - September 26, 2016

Market Observations for the Coming Week:   The NDX made all-time highs last week but the SPX and DJIA were not even close - this is a case of inter-market bearish divergence which should bring more correction into Monday. Our bias is that the first presidential debate on Monday could set the market tone for the week. A strong showing by Clinton would be bullish for the SPX.

9/26/16 (Commentary for Monday) The GDX continues to lead the market down and we posted an EW 5-wave decline on the hourly chart - this could be the end of a EW a-b-c correction from 9/7 or the start of something bigger on the downside for gold stocks - we should know by Wednesday. The SPX sold off on presidential debate fears that Trump will make a good showing tonight and upset the market. The market may be looking to the presidential debate Monday night for its next move - a strong showing by Clinton would be bullish. The NDX made all-time highs on Thursday but the SPX and DJIA lagged behind - this inter-market bearish divergence is giving us caution going into this week. We raised a lot of cash on Friday and will wait to see how the market reacts to the presidential debate Monday night. We are still focused on our favored groups: energy, precious metals, and biotech, but we will hold off on any new purchases until Tuesday. Crude oil bounced back hard on Monday but the oil stocks lagged. The GDX took out Friday's low but gold held up well - we're looking for a reversal higher by Wednesday. Biotech (IBB) finished a 5-wave advance on the hourly into early Friday and we pulled back on Monday - we still like large-cap bio-tech companies (AGN, AMGN, BIIB, CELG and GILD) on dips on Tuesday. With the 7-yr Shemittah cycle and the 3-yr commodity cycle bottoming on 2/11, our bias remains "bullish but short-term cautious" despite the Brexit vote to leave the EU and all the "crash talk" that permeates social media currently. We think that a major 4th wave correction ended on 2/11 and a 5th wave higher to SPX 2200-2300 all-time highs is still in effect.

   

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) - The NDX finished a 5-wave rally from 9/12 to all-time highs on Thursday - we have started a pullback that should lead us down into Monday/Tuesday.

             

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – The GDX declined in EW 5-waves on the hourly from the high early Thursday and this could be the end of an EW a-b-c decline from 9/7 - we are looking for a reversal higher by Wednesday.
  • Stocks - The ES is trying to bounce after the start of the presidential debate - we're looking for a reversal higher by Wednesday.
  • Gold - The GDX gave us a 5-wave decline on the hourly chart and should see a reversal higher by Wednesday.
  • Silver – Many silver stocks finished 5-waves down into Monday - we're looking for a reversal higher by Wednesday.
  • Crude Oil - Crude oil reversed higher on Monday but the oil stocks lagged - we're looking for a reversal higher by Wednesday.
  • Bonds - Bonds held up well on Monday and we are inclined to buy dips.
  • Dollar Index – The USD may be finishing an EW a-b-c bounce on the hourly - we're looking for a reversal down by Wednesday.

TURNING POINT DAY    

The turn window on 9/26-9/27 will be key for several markets this week.

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

WEEKLY COMMENTS: Update for 7/05/15: The CDNX remains mired in a deep, historic bear market since the April 2011 which led the turn down in the gold and silver market by a few months. To us, junior mining stocks are just trading affairs unless the 50-day MA crosses up through the 200-day MA. In our best guess, we feel that the CDNX and the gold mining juniors could bottom by October in advance of our target of April 2016 for a final low in gold and silver - typically the gold mining stocks bottom 6-9 months before final lows in gold and silver. We have read that up to 45% of junior gold/silver stocks only have enough cash on hand to continue operations for the next quarter. Many recent equity-based financing are small and done just to keep the lights on. Until the CDNX turns up , it is best just to focus on well-financed juniors with great assets and positive cash flow. Now is the time to follow these stories since we are in the late stages of this brutal bear market.

• Great Lakes Mining (GLKIF, C$0.0747 -.0026) – NEW Recommendation 7/5/15 - This is a unique situation in the high-end graphite market. This company is scheduled to open a factory to upgrade graphite for specialty applications by O-October. This vertical integration business model adds a new dimension to this company and is worth following.
• Aroway Energy (ARW.V, C$0.010 +0.000) – This western Canadian junior is part of a very sweet JV deal with a private partner in the Peace River basin – it's production share should climb from 669 BOE/day (75% black oil) to over 1200 BOE/day later in 2012 – management has selected a good slate of properties for drilling and it is bearing fruit. Buy on dips. Use a 20% stop from purchase price.
• Evolving Gold (EVGD.TO, C$0.0358 -.0000) - UPDATE: This stock has two world-class finds in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV. The problem is t-hat the company needs a financing and could be forced to sell a world-class asset for pennies on the dollar.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $1.04 -0.04) - UPDATE: Uranium prices are recovering and the fundamentals are getting a perfect storm. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer.
• Energy Fuels (EFR.TO, C$2.13 -0.01) – Finished acquisition of STM.TO in early September - building up a position as a strong US producer of uranium in a tight market.
• Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $2.69 -0.0900) – UPDATE: This stock needs to get its Mongolian coal mine into a positive cash-flow situation to support its power plant project and other endeavors without diluting the common shareholder to zero.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPHQ, $.0018 +.0008) - UPDATE: De-listed stock. Good asset but needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

 

 

 

 

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - September 25, 2016

Market Observations for the Coming Week:   The NDX has made all-time highs this week but the SPX and DJIA were not even close - this may be a case of inter-market bearish divergence and may bring more correction into Monday. Our bias is that the first presidential debate on Monday could set the market tone for the week. A strong showing by Trump would be bearish for the SPX.

9/25/16 (Commentary for Sunday) The GDX made highs for the week early Thursday on the back of fierce short covering from the Fed no-rate change decision - the GDX has since pulled back in a big correction and is trying to lead the SPX lower. Trading on Monday and Tuesday will tell us how serious any pullback in the SPX will be. The market may be looking to the presidential debate Monday night for its next move - a strong showing by Trump would be bearish. The NDX did an EW 5-waves up from the 6/27 Brexit low on the daily into Thursday but the SPX and DJIA lagged behind - this inter-market bearish divergence is giving us caution going into Monday. Our bias is for higher highs in the SPX by mid-October, but we raised a lot of cash on Friday and will wait to see how the market reacts to the presidential debate Monday night. We are still focused on our favored groups: energy, precious metals, and biotech, but we will hold off on any new purchases until Tuesday of next week. Crude oil sold off hard Friday in the wake of proposed changes by the SEC in oil trading - relative weakness in the OIH stocks argues for caution in the short term. The GDX gave back most of Wednesday's rally and argues for more correction in time for the PM market. Biotech (IBB) finished its large EW a-b-c correction on 9/12 and looked very strong on a weak market day Friday - we still like large-cap bio-tech companies (AGN, AMGN, BIIB, CELG and GILD) on dips early next week. With the 7-yr Shemittah cycle and the 3-yr commodity cycle bottoming on 2/11, our bias remains "bullish but short-term cautious" despite the Brexit vote to leave the EU and all the "crash talk" that permeates social media currently. We think that a major 4th wave correction ended on 2/11 and a 5th wave higher to SPX 2200-2300 all-time highs is still in effect.

   

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) - The NDX finished a 5-wave rally from 9/12 to all-time highs on Thursday - we have started a pullback that should lead us down into Monday/Tuesday.

             

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – The GDX gave up most of the post-FOMC rally on Friday, but the decline is only 3-wave corrective on the 5-min. We're looking for more correction in time and price.
  • Stocks - Led by the GDX, the SPX pulled back on Friday and looks lower on Monday - the market may be concerned of a strong showing on Monday's debate.
  • Gold - The GDX gave up most of Wednesday's gains on Friday but still only declined in 3-waves - we're looking for more correction in time and price.
  • Silver – Silver held up better than silver stocks (SIL) and gold on Friday but weakness in the SIL argues for more consolidation.
  • Crude Oil - Crude oil sold off hard on Friday on news of more SEC regulations on oil trading - we're looking to buy dips on Tuesday.
  • Bonds - Bonds held up well on Friday and we're looking to buy dips on Monday.
  • Dollar Index – The USD looks like it needs another leg up on Monday but we have a bearish bias in the intermediate term.

TURNING POINT DAY    

The turn window on 9/26-9/27 will be key for several markets this week.

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

WEEKLY COMMENTS: Update for 7/05/15: The CDNX remains mired in a deep, historic bear market since the April 2011 which led the turn down in the gold and silver market by a few months. To us, junior mining stocks are just trading affairs unless the 50-day MA crosses up through the 200-day MA. In our best guess, we feel that the CDNX and the gold mining juniors could bottom by October in advance of our target of April 2016 for a final low in gold and silver - typically the gold mining stocks bottom 6-9 months before final lows in gold and silver. We have read that up to 45% of junior gold/silver stocks only have enough cash on hand to continue operations for the next quarter. Many recent equity-based financing are small and done just to keep the lights on. Until the CDNX turns up , it is best just to focus on well-financed juniors with great assets and positive cash flow. Now is the time to follow these stories since we are in the late stages of this brutal bear market.

• Great Lakes Mining (GLKIF, C$0.0747 -.0026) – NEW Recommendation 7/5/15 - This is a unique situation in the high-end graphite market. This company is scheduled to open a factory to upgrade graphite for specialty applications by O-October. This vertical integration business model adds a new dimension to this company and is worth following.
• Aroway Energy (ARW.V, C$0.010 +0.000) – This western Canadian junior is part of a very sweet JV deal with a private partner in the Peace River basin – it's production share should climb from 669 BOE/day (75% black oil) to over 1200 BOE/day later in 2012 – management has selected a good slate of properties for drilling and it is bearing fruit. Buy on dips. Use a 20% stop from purchase price.
• Evolving Gold (EVGD.TO, C$0.0358 -.0000) - UPDATE: This stock has two world-class finds in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV. The problem is t-hat the company needs a financing and could be forced to sell a world-class asset for pennies on the dollar.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $1.04 -0.04) - UPDATE: Uranium prices are recovering and the fundamentals are getting a perfect storm. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer.
• Energy Fuels (EFR.TO, C$2.13 -0.01) – Finished acquisition of STM.TO in early September - building up a position as a strong US producer of uranium in a tight market.
• Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $2.69 -0.0900) – UPDATE: This stock needs to get its Mongolian coal mine into a positive cash-flow situation to support its power plant project and other endeavors without diluting the common shareholder to zero.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPHQ, $.0018 +.0008) - UPDATE: De-listed stock. Good asset but needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer - September 22, 2016

Market Observations for the Coming Week:   The key central bank action for the week was the BOJ announcement of an Operation Twist for their Japanese debt market which caused US bonds to briefly take out last week's low Tuesday night before reversing higher - this got global stock markets and the PMs in rally mode. Our bias is to buy dips in the SPX for a rally to all-time highs by mid-October.

9/22/16 (Commentary for Thursday) The BOJ action late Tuesday only briefly pressured global stocks, bonds and gold before we got a strong reversal higher. The SPX managed another rally day today and validates a run to test resistance at SPX 2195 soon. We are bullish on the market and expect the NDX to lead the market higher to a mid-October high - we plan to buy dips in gold stocks, oil stocks, and biotechs. The Presidential cycle argued for weakness from early September through October and we got it into 9/12, however, the NDX retested its breakout above year-2000 highs and should now lead the market higher into all-time highs into October led by FANG, SMH and biotech. Our bias is for the SPX to reach 2200-2300 by mid-October. We are still focused on our favored groups: energy, precious metals, and biotech, and plan to add positions on weakness early Friday. Crude oil may be in a large consolidation pattern that could last into October, but we did a pivot reversal below the Full Moon low ($43.35) Tuesday morning and could move a lot higher. The GDX started the day strong but pulled back in a 3-wave correction - Friday's tape will be key. Biotech (IBB) finished its large EW a-b-c correction on 9/12 and looks very strong - we still like large-cap bio-tech companies (AGN, AMGN, BIIB, CELG and GILD) on dips early Thursday. With the 7-yr Shemittah cycle and the 3-yr commodity cycle bottoming on 2/11, our bias remains "bullish but short-term cautious" despite the Brexit vote to leave the EU and all the "crash talk" that permeates social media currently. We think that a major 4th wave correction ended on 2/11 and a 5th wave higher to SPX 2200-2300 all-time highs is still in effect.

   

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) - BOJ action only briefly reversed global stock and bond markets Tuesday night before a strong rally started . Our bias is that the SPX will reach SPX 2200-2300 by mid-October.

             

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – The GDX made an import low on the Full Moon/lunar eclipse - BOJ action started a big rally in the PMs today that could have legs into October.
  • Stocks - BOJ and Fed action today started a rally that could take us to SPX 2200-2300 in October. We're looking to buy gold stocks, oil stocks and biotech on dips early Friday.
  • Gold - The GDX reversed after BOJ action Tuesday night and looks higher. A 5th wave higher from the Full Moon low on 9/16 should take us above 28.56 by Monday.
  • Silver – Silver's impulsive move off of Friday's Full Moon/lunar eclipse was a huge bullish signal for the PM sector - we're looking for at least a test of the $20.80-$21.35 zone by 10/7.
  • Crude Oil - Crude oil made what appears to be a 4th wave correction today on the hourly chart - we're looking for a 5th wave higher above $46.57 by Monday.
  • Bonds - BOJ actions early Wednesday caused bonds to take out last week's low and then rebound in a strong pivot reversal - we plan to buy TLT on dips early Friday.
  • Dollar Index – The USD fell in 5-waves on the hourly and then bounced today - this bearish action favors commodities in the short term.

TURNING POINT DAY    

The turn window on 9/21 (BOJ and Fed rate decisions + Fall Equinox) will be key for several markets this week.

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

WEEKLY COMMENTS: Update for 7/05/15: The CDNX remains mired in a deep, historic bear market since the April 2011 which led the turn down in the gold and silver market by a few months. To us, junior mining stocks are just trading affairs unless the 50-day MA crosses up through the 200-day MA. In our best guess, we feel that the CDNX and the gold mining juniors could bottom by October in advance of our target of April 2016 for a final low in gold and silver - typically the gold mining stocks bottom 6-9 months before final lows in gold and silver. We have read that up to 45% of junior gold/silver stocks only have enough cash on hand to continue operations for the next quarter. Many recent equity-based financing are small and done just to keep the lights on. Until the CDNX turns up , it is best just to focus on well-financed juniors with great assets and positive cash flow. Now is the time to follow these stories since we are in the late stages of this brutal bear market.

• Great Lakes Mining (GLKIF, C$0.0780 +.0040) – NEW Recommendation 7/5/15 - This is a unique situation in the high-end graphite market. This company is scheduled to open a factory to upgrade graphite for specialty applications by O-October. This vertical integration business model adds a new dimension to this company and is worth following.
• Aroway Energy (ARW.V, C$0.010 +0.000) – This western Canadian junior is part of a very sweet JV deal with a private partner in the Peace River basin – it's production share should climb from 669 BOE/day (75% black oil) to over 1200 BOE/day later in 2012 – management has selected a good slate of properties for drilling and it is bearing fruit. Buy on dips. Use a 20% stop from purchase price.
• Evolving Gold (EVGD.TO, C$0.0358 -.0000) - UPDATE: This stock has two world-class finds in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV. The problem is t-hat the company needs a financing and could be forced to sell a world-class asset for pennies on the dollar.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $1.06 +0.00) - UPDATE: Uranium prices are recovering and the fundamentals are getting a perfect storm. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer.
• Energy Fuels (EFR.TO, C$2.20 -0.04) – Finished acquisition of STM.TO in early September - building up a position as a strong US producer of uranium in a tight market.
• Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $2.78 -0.0200) – UPDATE: This stock needs to get its Mongolian coal mine into a positive cash-flow situation to support its power plant project and other endeavors without diluting the common shareholder to zero.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPHQ, $.0018 +.0008) - UPDATE: De-listed stock. Good asset but needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer - September 21, 2016

Market Observations for the Coming Week:   The key central bank action today was the BOJ announcement of an Operation Twist for their Japanese debt market which caused US bonds to briefly take out last week's low last night before reversing higher - this got global stock markets and the PMs in rally mode before we started today's US session. Our bias is to buy dips in the SPX for a rally to all-time highs by mid-October.

9/21/16 (Commentary for Wednesday) The BOJ action late Tuesday only briefly pressured global stocks and bonds before a strong reversal higher. The no-change rate decision from the Fed ignited a big short squeeze in the SPX that could last into tomorrow. We are bullish on the market and expect the NDX to lead the market higher to a mid-October high - we plan to buy dips in gold stocks, oil stocks, and biotechs. The Presidential cycle argued for weakness from early September through October and we got it into 9/12, however, the NDX retested its breakout above year-2000 highs and should now lead the market higher into all-time highs into October. The bonds took out last week's low last night and then did a "pivot-reversal" higher - this was a bullish signal for global markets to rally today. Our bias is for the SPX to reach 2200-2300 by mid-October. We are still focused on our favored groups: energy, precious metals, and biotech, and plan to add positions on weakness early Thursday. Crude oil may be in a large consolidation pattern that could last into October, but we did a pivot reversal below the Full Moon low ($43.35) Tuesday morning and could move a lot higher. Amidst impressive bearish sentiment, the GDX rallied pre-market after the BOJ action and really took off on short-covering after the Fed no-rate change - price action early Thursday will be very enlightening - big money bought the PM sector aggressively going into the close today. Biotech (IBB) may also have finished its large EW a-b-c correction on 9/12 and looks very strong - we still like large-cap bio-tech companies (AGN, AMGN, BIIB, CELG and GILD) on dips early Thursday. With the 7-yr Shemittah cycle and the 3-yr commodity cycle bottoming on 2/11, our bias remains "bullish but short-term cautious" despite the Brexit vote to leave the EU and all the "crash talk" that permeates social media currently. We think that a major 4th wave correction ended on 2/11 and a 5th wave higher to SPX 2200-2300 all-time highs is still in effect.

   

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) - BOJ action only briefly reversed global stock and bond markets Tuesday night before a strong rally started . Our bias is that the SPX will reach SPX 2200-2300 by mid-October.

             

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – The GDX made an import low on the Full Moon/lunar eclipse - BOJ action started a big rally in the PMs today that could have legs into October.
  • Stocks - BOJ and Fed action today started a rally that could take us to SPX 2200-2300 in October. We're looking to buy gold stocks, oil stocks and biotech on dips early Thursday.
  • Gold - The GDX reversed after BOJ action last night and ever looked back. The post-Fed rally may have seen a lot of short covering so price action early Thursday will be key. We are planning to buy dips in SLV, GLD and NUGT.
  • Silver – Silver's impulsive move off of Friday's Full Moon/lunar eclipse was a huge bullish signal for the PM sector - we're looking to buy dips in SLV and CDE early Thursday.
  • Crude Oil - Crude oil took out the Full Moon low ($43.35) Tuesday and then staged an impressive pivot reversal higher that lasted into today's close - we're holding calls in CVX, SLB and COP.
  • Bonds - BOJ actions early Wednesday caused bonds to take out last week's low and then rebound in a strong pivot reversal - we plan to buy TLT on dips early Thursday.
  • Dollar Index – The USD got a higher high and a retest of 96 last night before a reversal down - this is bullish for commodities.

TURNING POINT DAY    

The turn window on 9/21 (BOJ and Fed rate decisions + Fall Equinox) will be key for several markets this week.

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

WEEKLY COMMENTS: Update for 7/05/15: The CDNX remains mired in a deep, historic bear market since the April 2011 which led the turn down in the gold and silver market by a few months. To us, junior mining stocks are just trading affairs unless the 50-day MA crosses up through the 200-day MA. In our best guess, we feel that the CDNX and the gold mining juniors could bottom by October in advance of our target of April 2016 for a final low in gold and silver - typically the gold mining stocks bottom 6-9 months before final lows in gold and silver. We have read that up to 45% of junior gold/silver stocks only have enough cash on hand to continue operations for the next quarter. Many recent equity-based financing are small and done just to keep the lights on. Until the CDNX turns up , it is best just to focus on well-financed juniors with great assets and positive cash flow. Now is the time to follow these stories since we are in the late stages of this brutal bear market.

• Great Lakes Mining (GLKIF, C$0.0780 +.0040) – NEW Recommendation 7/5/15 - This is a unique situation in the high-end graphite market. This company is scheduled to open a factory to upgrade graphite for specialty applications by O-October. This vertical integration business model adds a new dimension to this company and is worth following.
• Aroway Energy (ARW.V, C$0.010 +0.000) – This western Canadian junior is part of a very sweet JV deal with a private partner in the Peace River basin – it's production share should climb from 669 BOE/day (75% black oil) to over 1200 BOE/day later in 2012 – management has selected a good slate of properties for drilling and it is bearing fruit. Buy on dips. Use a 20% stop from purchase price.
• Evolving Gold (EVGD.TO, C$0.0358 -.0000) - UPDATE: This stock has two world-class finds in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV. The problem is t-hat the company needs a financing and could be forced to sell a world-class asset for pennies on the dollar.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $1.06 +0.00) - UPDATE: Uranium prices are recovering and the fundamentals are getting a perfect storm. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer.
• Energy Fuels (EFR.TO, C$2.20 -0.04) – Finished acquisition of STM.TO in early September - building up a position as a strong US producer of uranium in a tight market.
• Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $2.78 -0.0200) – UPDATE: This stock needs to get its Mongolian coal mine into a positive cash-flow situation to support its power plant project and other endeavors without diluting the common shareholder to zero.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPHQ, $.0018 +.0008) - UPDATE: De-listed stock. Good asset but needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer - September 20, 2016

Market Observations for the Coming Week:  The BOJ and US Fed will dominate market action tomorrow. The BOJ may announce an Operation Twist for their Japanese debt market manipulation that could pressure US bonds and stocks on the open Wednesday. Our bias is that a no-rate-change Fed decision will then reverse stocks and bonds higher.

9/20/16 (Commentary for Tuesday) The BOJ actions may pressure stocks and bonds to retest lows from last week early Wednesday and at this point a pullback to SPX 2068 would be a gift. However, we expect a no-rate-change decision from the Fed tomorrow that will reverse stocks and bonds higher. We are bullish on the market and expect the NDX to lead the market higher to a mid-October high. The Presidential cycle argued for weakness from early September through October and we have got it into 9/12, however, strength in the NDX should take us higher after the Fed. We may have seen important lows in the SPX and bonds last week and we are looking for just retests of those lows early Wednesday. The SPX may pull back into the Fed minutes, but we're looking for no-change in rate policy and a post-Fed rally that could take the SPX into the 2200-2300 range by mid-October. Our bias is that the Fed will support the stock market going into the election. We are still focused on our favored groups: energy, precious metals, and biotech, and plan to add positions on weakness early Wednesday. Crude oil may be in a large consolidation pattern that could last into October, but we did a pivot reversal below the Full Moon low ($43.35) this morning and we could be moving a lot higher. The GDX rallied after the Full Moon, and if we can stay above 25.17 after the Fed minutes, this could be short-term bullish for the PM sector. Biotech (IBB) may also have finished its large EW a-b-c correction on 9/12 and looks very strong - we still like large-cap bio-tech companies (AGN, AMGN, BIIB, CELG and GILD) on dips early Wednesday. With the 7-yr Shemittah cycle and the 3-yr commodity cycle bottoming on 2/11, our bias remains "bullish but short-term cautious" despite the Brexit vote to leave the EU and all the "crash talk" that permeates social media currently. We think that a major 4th wave correction ended on 2/11 and a 5th wave higher to SPX 2200-2300 all-time highs is still in effect.

   

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) - BOJ actions could pressure the SPX and bonds into the Fed minutes but then the markets could reverse higher on a no-rate change decision. Our bias is that the SPX will make a tradable low early Wednesday and then set up for a post-Fed rally.

             

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – The GDX made a trading low on the Full Moon/lunar eclipse - if we can hold above 25.17 through the Fed minutes this could be bullish for the entire PM sector.
  • Stocks - We're looking for the BOJ to pressure the SPX going into the Fed minutes and then looking for a post-Fed reversal higher. We're looking to buy gold stocks, oil stocks and biotech on dips before the Fed minutes.
  • Gold - The GDX made a trading low on the Full Moon and looks to bounce hard in wave C of B post-Fed if we can hold GDX 25.17. We added to GLD and NUGT calls today.
  • Silver – Silver's impulsive move off the Full Moon/lunar eclipse is a huge bullish signal to us - we're looking for a large post-Fed rally into early October.
  • Crude Oil - Crude oil took out the Full Moon low ($43.35) early today and then staged an impressive pivot reversal higher - we're holding calls in CVX, SLB and COP.
  • Bonds - BOJ actions early Wednesday could pressure bonds to retest lows from last week but we expect a post-Fed bounce.
  • Dollar Index – The USD may have one more higher high going into the Fed minutes but we are looking for a reversal down post-Fed.

TURNING POINT DAY    

The turn window on 9/21 (BOJ and Fed rate decisions) will be key for several markets this week.

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

WEEKLY COMMENTS: Update for 7/05/15: The CDNX remains mired in a deep, historic bear market since the April 2011 which led the turn down in the gold and silver market by a few months. To us, junior mining stocks are just trading affairs unless the 50-day MA crosses up through the 200-day MA. In our best guess, we feel that the CDNX and the gold mining juniors could bottom by October in advance of our target of April 2016 for a final low in gold and silver - typically the gold mining stocks bottom 6-9 months before final lows in gold and silver. We have read that up to 45% of junior gold/silver stocks only have enough cash on hand to continue operations for the next quarter. Many recent equity-based financing are small and done just to keep the lights on. Until the CDNX turns up , it is best just to focus on well-financed juniors with great assets and positive cash flow. Now is the time to follow these stories since we are in the late stages of this brutal bear market.

• Great Lakes Mining (GLKIF, C$0.0740 +.0047) – NEW Recommendation 7/5/15 - This is a unique situation in the high-end graphite market. This company is scheduled to open a factory to upgrade graphite for specialty applications by O-October. This vertical integration business model adds a new dimension to this company and is worth following.
• Aroway Energy (ARW.V, C$0.010 +0.000) – This western Canadian junior is part of a very sweet JV deal with a private partner in the Peace River basin – it's production share should climb from 669 BOE/day (75% black oil) to over 1200 BOE/day later in 2012 – management has selected a good slate of properties for drilling and it is bearing fruit. Buy on dips. Use a 20% stop from purchase price.
• Evolving Gold (EVGD.TO, C$0.0358 -.0000) - UPDATE: This stock has two world-class finds in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV. The problem is t-hat the company needs a financing and could be forced to sell a world-class asset for pennies on the dollar.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $1.07 +0.03) - UPDATE: Uranium prices are recovering and the fundamentals are getting a perfect storm. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer.
• Energy Fuels (EFR.TO, C$2.24 +0.01) – Finished acquisition of STM.TO in early September - building up a position as a strong US producer of uranium in a tight market.
• Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $2.8019 -0.0000) – UPDATE: This stock needs to get its Mongolian coal mine into a positive cash-flow situation to support its power plant project and other endeavors without diluting the common shareholder to zero.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPHQ, $.0010 +.0000) - UPDATE: De-listed stock. Good asset but needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer - September 19, 2016

Market Observations for the Coming Week:  The SPX may decline into the Fed minutes on Wednesday but we are looking for a bullish outcome. We are buying dips in gold stocks, oil stocks, and biotech. We are still looking for the SPX to be in the 2200-2300 range by mid-October and gold to test $1380 by early October.

9/19/16 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX rallied early but reversed down - we could see more decline going into Wednesday and at this point a pullback to SPX 2068 would be a gift. However, after the Fed meeting, we are bullish on the market and expect the NDX to lead the market higher no matter what the rate hike decision is. The Presidential cycle argued for weakness from early September through October and we have gotten it so far, however, strength in the NDX should take us higher after the Fed. Rising global rates(lead by Japan) are pressuring stocks down - global bond markets are raising rates in defiance of the efforts of the BOJ and ECB but bonds may have finished an EW a-b-c correction in the Full Moon Timing Window and may be poised to bounce post-Fed. The SPX may pull back into the Fed minutes, but we're looking for no-change in rate policy and a post-Fed rally into the SPX that could take us into the 2200-2300 range by mid-October. Today we stopped out of our SPY and IWM puts but still hold a few UVXY calls - our bias is that the Fed will support the stock market going into the election. We are still focused on our favored groups: energy, precious metals, and biotech, and we are continuing to add positions on weakness. Crude oil may be in a large consolidation pattern that could last into October, but we made a low in the Full Moon Timing Window and should bounce post-Fed. The GDX rallied after the Full Moon, and if we can stay above 25.17 going into the Fed minutes, this could be short-term bullish for the PM sector. Biotech (IBB) may also have finished its large EW a-b-c correction on 9/12 and looks strong - we still like large-cap bio-tech companies (AGN, AMGN, BIIB, CELG and GILD) here on dips. With the 7-yr Shemittah cycle and the 3-yr commodity cycle bottoming on 2/11, our bias remains "bullish but short-term cautious" despite the Brexit vote to leave the EU and all the "crash talk" that permeates social media currently. We think that a major 4th wave correction ended on 2/11 and a 5th wave higher to SPX 2200-2300 all-time highs is still in effect.

   

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) - The SPX should pull back into the Fed minutes but then reverse higher. Our bias is that the SPX will make a tradable low by 9/20 and then set up for a post-Fed rally.

             

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – The GDX made a trading low on the Full Moon/lunar eclipse - if we can hold above 25.17 through the Fed minutes this could be bullish for the entire PM sector.
  • Stocks - We're looking for the SPX to pull back into the Fed minutes and then reverse higher post-Fed. We're looking to buy gold stocks, oil stocks and biotech on dips.
  • Gold - The GDX made a trading low on the Full Moon and looks to bounce hard in wave C of B post-Fed. We added to GLD and NUGT calls today.
  • Silver – Silver should made a trading low on the Full Moon and rallied impulsively into Monday - we added to our SLV calls and look for a large post-Fed rally.
  • Crude Oil - Crude oil bottomed on the Full Moon and should rally hard post-Fed on a weaker USD.
  • Bonds - Bond may have finished an EW a-b-c decline going into the Full Moon Timing Window and we stopped out of our September TLT puts. We are looking for a big post-Fed bounce.
  • Dollar Index – The USD may have one more higher high going into the Fed minutes but we are looking for weakness post-Fed.

TURNING POINT DAY    

The turn window on 9/16-9/19 will be key for several markets this week and the 9/16 Full Moon/lunar eclipse could be a catalyst for extreme volatility.

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

WEEKLY COMMENTS: Update for 7/05/15: The CDNX remains mired in a deep, historic bear market since the April 2011 which led the turn down in the gold and silver market by a few months. To us, junior mining stocks are just trading affairs unless the 50-day MA crosses up through the 200-day MA. In our best guess, we feel that the CDNX and the gold mining juniors could bottom by October in advance of our target of April 2016 for a final low in gold and silver - typically the gold mining stocks bottom 6-9 months before final lows in gold and silver. We have read that up to 45% of junior gold/silver stocks only have enough cash on hand to continue operations for the next quarter. Many recent equity-based financing are small and done just to keep the lights on. Until the CDNX turns up , it is best just to focus on well-financed juniors with great assets and positive cash flow. Now is the time to follow these stories since we are in the late stages of this brutal bear market.

• Great Lakes Mining (GLKIF, C$0.0700 +.0025) – NEW Recommendation 7/5/15 - This is a unique situation in the high-end graphite market. This company is scheduled to open a factory to upgrade graphite for specialty applications by O-October. This vertical integration business model adds a new dimension to this company and is worth following.
• Aroway Energy (ARW.V, C$0.010 +0.000) – This western Canadian junior is part of a very sweet JV deal with a private partner in the Peace River basin – it's production share should climb from 669 BOE/day (75% black oil) to over 1200 BOE/day later in 2012 – management has selected a good slate of properties for drilling and it is bearing fruit. Buy on dips. Use a 20% stop from purchase price.
• Evolving Gold (EVGD.TO, C$0.0358 -.0000) - UPDATE: This stock has two world-class finds in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV. The problem is t-hat the company needs a financing and could be forced to sell a world-class asset for pennies on the dollar.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $1.04 +0.01) - UPDATE: Uranium prices are recovering and the fundamentals are getting a perfect storm. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer.
• Energy Fuels (EFR.TO, C$2.21 -0.73) – Finished acquisition of STM.TO in early September - building up a position as a strong US producer of uranium in a tight market.
• Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $3.003 -0.2263) – UPDATE: This stock needs to get its Mongolian coal mine into a positive cash-flow situation to support its power plant project and other endeavors without diluting the common shareholder to zero.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPHQ, $.0018 +.0000) - UPDATE: De-listed stock. Good asset but needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - September 16, 2016

Market Observations for the Coming Week:  The SPX declined slightly going into the Full Moon and September expiration on Friday. There's still a chance of a spike below SPX 2100 on Monday, but we are scaling into some selected longs in precious metals, energy and biotech. Still holding some SPY and IWM puts and UVXY calls for hedge.

9/18/16 (Commentary for Sunday) The SPX rallied on Friday but we still are wary of a sharp decline going into Tuesday before the big Fed meeting. However, after the Fed meeting we are bullish on the market and expect the NDX to lead the market higher no matter what the rate hike decision is. The NDX has retested a major breakout from the 2000 high and this is guiding our bullish bias. The US bond market is still sub-dividing down in a negative way and gives us a chance of a spike down to SPX 2068 by Wednesday. We are still focused on our favored groups: energy, precious metals, FANG, and biotech. Crude oil gave us a bounce on the Full Moon and so did the GDX but neither convince us that a low is in yet - these markets may be buying time until the Fed decision. Biotech (IBB) may also have finished its large EW a-b-c correction on 9/12 and looks strong - we still like large-cap bio-tech companies (AGN, AMGN, BIIB, CELG and GILD) here on dips. With the 7-yr Shemittah cycle and the 3-yr commodity cycle bottoming on 2/11, our bias remains "bullish but short-term cautious" despite the Brexit vote to leave the EU and all the "crash talk" that permeates social media currently. We think that a major 4th wave correction ended on 2/11 and a 5th wave higher to SPX 2200-2300 all-time highs is still in effect.

   

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) - Global bond markets are rapidly re-pricing long rates around the world and this gives us the chance of a plunge to SPX 2068 in the 9/16-9/20 turn window. Our bias is that the SPX will make a tradable low by 9/20 and be ready to rally after the Fed rate decision.

             

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – The GDX bounced on Friday's Full Moon but the technicals may not have bottomed out - if we can hold above 25.17 through the Fed rate decision this could be bullish for the entire PM sector.
  • Stocks - Another leg own is possible to SPX 2068 by the Fed rate decision, but the strength in the NDX gives us a bullish bias.
  • Gold - The GDX bounced Friday but the technicals have not confirmed a convincing low to us. If GDX holds above 25.17 going into the Fed rate hike decision, that could be very bullish for the PM sector.
  • Silver – Silver should make a trading low in the 9/16-9/19 turn signal - watch silver stocks (SIL) for a buy signal.
  • Crude Oil - Crude oil bounced on the Full Moon and we added some calls on CVX and SLB.
  • Bonds - Rising global long rates are pressuring global stock markets. The Japanese bond market is leading global rates higher. We are holding TLT puts.
  • Dollar Index – The USD looks higher into the Fed rate decision on 9/21, but we look for weakness after.

TURNING POINT DAY    

The turn window on 9/19-9/20 will be key for several markets this week and the 9/21 Fed rate decision could be a catalyst for extreme volatility.

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

WEEKLY COMMENTS: Update for 7/05/15: The CDNX remains mired in a deep, historic bear market since the April 2011 which led the turn down in the gold and silver market by a few months. To us, junior mining stocks are just trading affairs unless the 50-day MA crosses up through the 200-day MA. In our best guess, we feel that the CDNX and the gold mining juniors could bottom by October in advance of our target of April 2016 for a final low in gold and silver - typically the gold mining stocks bottom 6-9 months before final lows in gold and silver. We have read that up to 45% of junior gold/silver stocks only have enough cash on hand to continue operations for the next quarter. Many recent equity-based financing are small and done just to keep the lights on. Until the CDNX turns up , it is best just to focus on well-financed juniors with great assets and positive cash flow. Now is the time to follow these stories since we are in the late stages of this brutal bear market.

• Great Lakes Mining (GLKIF, C$0.0700 +.0025) – NEW Recommendation 7/5/15 - This is a unique situation in the high-end graphite market. This company is scheduled to open a factory to upgrade graphite for specialty applications by O-October. This vertical integration business model adds a new dimension to this company and is worth following.
• Aroway Energy (ARW.V, C$0.010 +0.000) – This western Canadian junior is part of a very sweet JV deal with a private partner in the Peace River basin – it's production share should climb from 669 BOE/day (75% black oil) to over 1200 BOE/day later in 2012 – management has selected a good slate of properties for drilling and it is bearing fruit. Buy on dips. Use a 20% stop from purchase price.
• Evolving Gold (EVGD.TO, C$0.0358 -.0000) - UPDATE: This stock has two world-class finds in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV. The problem is t-hat the company needs a financing and could be forced to sell a world-class asset for pennies on the dollar.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $1.04 +0.01) - UPDATE: Uranium prices are recovering and the fundamentals are getting a perfect storm. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer.
• Energy Fuels (EFR.TO, C$2.21 -0.73) – Finished acquisition of STM.TO in early September - building up a position as a strong US producer of uranium in a tight market.
• Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $3.003 -0.2263) – UPDATE: This stock needs to get its Mongolian coal mine into a positive cash-flow situation to support its power plant project and other endeavors without diluting the common shareholder to zero.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPHQ, $.0018 +.0000) - UPDATE: De-listed stock. Good asset but needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.