All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer – January 17, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

1/17/12 (Commentary for Tuesday) Gold gave us a EW 5-wave decline today on the 5-min chart and confirmed Weekly Reversal Timing to the downside (we took out last week's high and then reversed down to the bottom of the daily range). The ES also gave us an EW 5-wave decline. We should get a corrective bounce into the 1/18-1/19 turn window but the high should be in for the week. From today's high, a correction should ensue into the post-expiration period 1/22-1/23 – this should give us a key secondary low for gold – ideally around 1614. The ES should find some support on ES=1273 – the volume point of control on the hourly chart – a decline below 1267 argues for a more substantial pull back. Crude oil finished an EW 3-wave correction into 1/13 – but today we rallied in 5-waves on the 6-min chart – a peak for the week in the 1/18-1/19 turn widow is likely. Gold clearly made an important low Thursday at $1525 in the 12/29-12/30 turning point window and reversed to the upside with a 5-wave impulsive rally – a sizable rally into February is expected but we should get a higher low into the third week of January – around 1/22-1/23. The GLD also gave us a capitulation volume on 12/29– we're looking for a bounce to the top of the daily range – buy gold, silver and gold stocks on dips. The HUI may have finished an EW double zig-zag corrective pattern on the weekly chart – multi-year lows in bullish sentiment on the whisperumber.com poll argue that a Major Buy Point for gold stocks is at hand.

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that has morphed into a contracting triangle on the daily chart. We believe that this triangle will break to the upside into the New Year. We should get a tradable bounce into January that could extend into the February 10 timeframe – watch the PMs for the clearest timing signals.

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – The daily chart of gold appears to have finished the Wave C of a large EW a-b-c corrective pattern from the September high on 12/29. Gold made a major low today at $1525 as the 12-wk cycle low bottomed in the 12/29-12/30 turn window – buy the PMs on dips. We're looking for a short-term peak in the 1/18-1/19 time window followed by a pull back into a higher secondary low in the 1/22-1/23 window.

• Stocks – The ES may have peaked today – we got a 5-wave decline on the 5-min chart. A break below 1273 on volume will reverse our longs to shorts. The ES gave us a short-term low on 1/13 and may have finished an EW a-b-c correction from 12/29 on the hourly chart early morning. Looking for a HIGH this week and then a decline into the post-expiration 1/22-1/23 period.
• Gold – Gold may have given us a short-term peak this morning – we took out last week's high and then declined in 5-waves to finish near the bottom of the daily range to confirm Weekly Reversal Timing – we should see a bounce into the 1/18-1/19 turn window before a decline into 1/22-1/23. Silver – Silver also gave us a 5-wave decline on the 5-min chart confirming a top for the week. After a 3-wave bounce into 1/18-1/19 – we should see a decline into 1/22-1/23 that will give us an important low.
• Bonds – The bonds are rallying and may give us a wedgy new high on the hourly. We should top into the 1/22-1/23 time window.
• Crude oil – Oil gave us a 5-wave rally off the 1/13 low – more bounce is expected into the 1/18-1/19 turn window. Iranian tensions and a rolling supply shock from the 2008-2009 wash out should give us another price spike above $120 going into the first half of 2012 but we may get a typical seasonal low into February first.
• Dollar index – The DX should give us a bounce into the 1/22-1/23 turn window. Our target of .90 appears to be farther off in time – perhaps in Q2 of 2012 as the next stage of the European debt crisis rears its head.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:     

Looking for highs in gold, silver and the ES in the 1/18-1/19 turn window. If gold takes out 1662.9 and reverses down impulsively – a decline to 1614 by 1/22-1/23 is underway.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL LATE-DECEMBER – TIME TARGET FOR MAJOR CYCLE LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.37 -.03) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.65 +.22) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.435 -.015) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.459 +0615)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.2490 -.0002) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly JDV Market Timer – January 15, 2012

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

1/16/12 (Commentary for Monday) The 1/12-1/13 gave us a short-term low in the ES, gold, silver and oil. There are a lot of mixed technicals for the coming week but we have the clearest timing indication from gold. Gold loves Fibonacci and obeys Fibonacci with impressive regularity – we had a 144-month Fibonacci step out from the key Sept 1999 low to the Sept 2011 high – we should always be looking at Fib step outs from important high/lows in this market. Accordingly, for the week of Jan 16, the 21-day Fib step out falls on 1/18-1/19 and we expect a high for the week and reversal in this time widow for gold, silver and the broad market. From this high, a correction should ensue into the post-expiration period 1/22-1/23 – this should give us a key secondary low for gold – ideally around 1614. Any declines should find support on ES=1273 – the volume point of control on the hourly chart – a decline below 1267 argues for a more substantial pull back. A break above ES=1304 could test an important "volume point of control" on the daily chart at 1316. Crude oil finished an EW 3-wave correction into 1/13 – a close below 98.83 implies a retest of 91. Taking out Friday's low in rude will get us defensive in the ES and PM sector for the very short term. Gold clearly made an important low Thursday at $1525 in the 12/29-12/30 turning point window and reversed to the upside with a 5-wave impulsive rally – a sizable rally into February is expected but we should get a higher low into the third week of January – around 1/22-1/23. The GLD also gave us a capitulation volume on 12/29– we're looking for a bounce to the top of the daily range – buy gold, silver and gold stocks on dips. The HUI may have finished an EW double zig-zag corrective pattern on the weekly chart – multi-year lows in bullish sentiment on the whisperumber.com poll argue that a Major Buy Point for gold stocks is at hand.

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that has morphed into a contracting triangle on the daily chart. We believe that this triangle will break to the upside into the New Year. We should get a tradable bounce into January that could extend into the February 10 timeframes – watch the PMs for the clearest timing signals.

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – The daily chart of gold appears to have finished the Wave C of a large EW a-b-c corrective pattern from the September high on 12/29. Gold made a major low today at $1525 as the 12-wk cycle low bottomed in the 12/29-12/30 turn window – buy the PMs on dips. We're looking for a short-term peak in the 1/18-1/19 time window followed by a pull back into a higher secondary low in the 1/22-1/23 window.

• Stocks – The ES should be watched for signs of a short-term peak in the 1/18-1/19 turn window – exceeding 1304 will should give us a quick test of 1316. A break below 1273 on volume will reverse our longs to shorts. The ES gave us a short-term low on 1/13 and is working an EW 5-wave pattern higher. Looking for a HIGH this week and then a decline into the post-expiration 1/22-1/23 period.
• Gold – The EW 5-wave rally from 12/29 is still sub-dividing up – from a low on 1/13 we should see a short-term top in the 1/18-1/19 period before a decline into 1/22-1/23. The HUI appears to have finished an EW double zig-zag pattern on the weekly chart on 12/29. Since the whisper number bullishness on the HUI reached 6.9% - a multi-year low on 12/23 – we think that gold stocks are a Major Buy as we enter 2012.
• Silver – Looking for same timing as gold. We have a target of $32.10 by 1/18-1/19 before a decline into next week. Silver made a double bottom at 26.15 on the daily chart on 12/29 – it also appears that the 48-wk cycle low may have bottomed last week – buy on dips.
• Bonds – The bonds look weak to us as investors panic into short-term German bonds with negative yields – the US Treasury market has become less attractive to international investors. We should get a bounce into the 1/22-1/23 time window.
• Crude oil – Oil plunged to $98.83 on Friday and is bouncing – taking out $98.83 on a closing basis will argue for a test of $91. Just a corrective 3-wave bounce off the 1/13 low will put us on the defensive. Iranian tensions and a rolling supply shock from the 2008-2009 wash out should give us another price spike above $120 going into the first half of 2012 but we may get a typical seasonal low into February first.
• Dollar index – The DX should test last week's low before reversing up into 1/22-1/23. Our target of .90 appears to be farther off in time – perhaps in Q2 of 2012 as the next stage of the European debt crisis rears its head.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:     

Looking for highs in gold, silver and the ES in the 1/18-1/19 turn window. If gold takes out 1662.9 and reverses down impulsively – a decline to 1614 by 1/22-1/23 is underway.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL LATE-DECEMBER – TIME TARGET FOR MAJOR CYCLE LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.38 -.005) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.43 +.21) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.41 +.01) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.3975 -.0225)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.2492 +.0042) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The JDV Market Timer – January 12, 2012

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

1/12/12 (Commentary for Thursday) Back-to-back small changes in the McClellan Oscillator argue for a big move soon – trading above ES=1304 argues for an upside move to 1316. Any declines should find support on ES=1273 – the volume point of control on the hourly chart – a decline below 1267 argues for a more substantial pull back.The ideal trading setup this week called for a peak Monday in the Full Moon Timing Window and then a corrective pullback into 1/12-1/13 – we appear to be getting something else. The EW 5-wave rally on the hourly chart is still sub-dividing up and this creates the possibility that the 1/12-1/13 turn window may be a short-term top for risk markets. The ES has a target of around 1316 but if it takes out 1273 with volume and quickly slips below 1267 longs should be reversed to shorts. We will be cautious Friday and on guard for confirmation of a short-term peak. Gold clearly made an important low Thursday at $1525 in the 12/29-12/30 turning point window and reversed to the upside with a 5-wave impulsive rally – a sizable rally into February is expected but we should get a higher low into the third week of January. The GLD also gave us a capitulation volume on 12/29– we're looking for a bounce to the top of the daily range – buy gold, silver and gold stocks on dips. The HUI may have finished a EW double zig-zag corrective pattern on the weekly chart – multi-year lows in bullish sentiment on the whisperumber.com poll argue that a Major Buy Point for gold stocks is at hand.

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that has morphed into a contracting triangle on the daily chart. We believe that this triangle will break to the upside into the New Year. We should get a tradable bounce into January – watch the PMs for a leading signal.

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – The daily chart of gold appears to have finished the Wave C of a large EW a-b-c corrective pattern from the September high on 12/29. Gold made a major low today at $1525 as the 12-wk cycle low bottomed in the 12/29-12/30 turn window – buy the PMs on dips.

• Stocks – The ES should be watched for signs of a short-term peak in the 1/12-1/13 turn window – exceeding 1304 will get us long into 1316. A break of 1273 on volume will reverse our longs to shorts.
• Gold – The EW 5-wave rally from 12/29 is still sub-dividing up – a peak into the 1/12-1/13 turn window will have us taking profits. The HUI appears to have finished an EW double zig-zag pattern on the weekly chart on 12/29. Since the whisper number bullishness on the HUI reached 6.9% - a multi-year low on 12/23 – we think that gold stocks are a Major Buy as we enter 2012.
• Silver – Silver's rally pattern on the hourly does not look like an impulsive 5-wave affair so caution is warranted here – we have a target of $32.10. Silver made a double bottom at 26.15 on the daily chart on 12/29 – it also appears that the 48-wk cycle low may have bottomed last week – buy on dips.
• Bonds – The bonds look weak to us as investors panic into short-term German bonds with negative yields – the US Treasury market has become less attractive to international investors.
• Crude oil – Oil plunged to $98.83 and is bouncing – taking out $98.83 will argue for much lower prices. However, oil may have bottomed today – it appears we made a low in the 1/12-1/13 turn window. Iranian tensions and a rolling supply shock from the 2008-2009 wash out should give us another price spike above $120 going into the first half of 2012.
• Dollar index – The DX finished its 3-wave correction on the hourly chart and looks primed for a reversal up. Our target of .90 appears to be farther off in time – perhaps in early 2012 as the next stage of the European debt crisis rears its head.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:     

The Full Moon on 1/9 should give us a reversal down in the broad market and the PMs – a spike to higher highs on Monday should be reversed into the 1/11-1/12 turning point window.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL LATE-DECEMBER – TIME TARGET FOR MAJOR CYCLE LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.385 +.00) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.22 +.17) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.40 -.00) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.423 +.0035)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.245 -.0152) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – January 10, 2012

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

1/10/12 (Commentary for Tuesday) Tuesday gave us a continued spike into the Full Moon Timing Window – unfortunately most of the move occurred in overnight trading. The ES and Nasdaq gave us Positive Volume Reversal Days – we're looking for a corrective pull back in the ES to 1273 or so – the Volume Point of Control on the hourly chart – after a pull back into the 1/12-1/13 turning point window, we should see another leg up into expiration, The ES also finished an EW 5-wave rally pattern from 12/29 – a 3-wave correction into Wed/Thursday would give us an ideal long entry. We expect to repurchase our positions by the 1/11-1/12 turn window which should give us a Wave 2 low in the HUI. Gold is due 1-Day Reversal Timing from Starkey on Wednesday – looking for a move down. Gold clearly made an important low Thursday at $1525 in the 12/29-12/30 turning point window and reversed to the upside with a 5-wave impulsive rally – a sizable rally into February is expected but we should get a higher low into the third week of January. The GLD also gave us a capitulation volume on 12/29– we're looking for a bounce to the top of the daily range – buy gold, silver and gold stocks on dips. The HUI may have finished a EW double zig-zag corrective pattern on the weekly chart – multi-year lows in bullish sentiment on the whisperumber.com poll argue that a Major Buy Point for gold stocks is at hand.

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that has morphed into a contracting triangle on the daily chart. We believe that this triangle will break to the upside into the New Year. We should get a tradable bounce into January – watch the PMs for a leading signal.

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – The daily chart of gold appears to have finished the Wave C of a large EW a-b-c corrective pattern from the September high on 12/29. Gold made a major low today at $1525 as the 12-wk cycle low bottomed in the 12/29-12/30 turn window – buy the PMs on dips.

• Stocks – The ES broke out above 1288 to finish a 5-wave rally from 12/29 on the hourly chart into the Full Moon Timing Window – a small pull back into the 1/12-1/13 turn window is expected before the next leg up into expiration.
• Gold – Gold finished a EW 5-wave advance on the hourly chart today from the 12/20 low – 1-Day Reversal Timing is due tomorrow and that should give us a retrace into 1/11-1/12 before the next leg up. BUY GOLD + GOLD STOCKS on dips for a tradable bounce. The HUI appears to have finished an EW double zig-zag pattern on the weekly chart on 12/29. Since the whisper number bullishness on the HUI reached 6.9% - a multi-year low on 12/23 – we think that gold stocks are a Major Buy as we enter 2012.
• Silver – Silver also spiked into the Full Moon Timing Window – we're due for a pull back into 1/12-1/13. Silver made a double bottom at 26.15 on the daily chart on 12/29 – it also appears that the 48-wk cycle low may have bottomed last week – buy on dips.
• Stocks – The bonds finished an EW a-b-c decline on the hourly and are bouncing correctively.
• Crude oil – Oil spiked in a B-wave into the Full Moon – a reversal down started which should last into the 1/12-1/13 turn window. Iranian tensions and a rolling supply shock from the 2008-2009 wash out should give us another price spike above $120 going into the first half of 2012.
• Dollar index – The DX finished its 3-wave correction and started its bounce today which should presage a market pull back. Our target of .90 appears to be farther off in time – perhaps in early 2012 as the next stage of the European debt crisis rears its head.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:     

The Full Moon on 1/9 should give us a reversal down in the broad market and the PMs – a spike to higher highs on Monday should be reversed into the 1/11-1/12 turning point window.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL LATE-DECEMBER – TIME TARGET FOR MAJOR CYCLE LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.38 +.05) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.05 +.01) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.40 -.01) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.4203 +.0023)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.254 -.00) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – January 9, 2012

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

1/09/12 (Commentary for Monday) A euphoric reading on today's ISEE call/put ratio (162) and a late day spike into Monday's Full Moon argue for a reversal down into the 1/11-1/12 turning point window, The ES is close to finishing an EW 5-wave rally pattern from 12/29. A 52-wk low in the all-index put/call ratio (Thursday) and Thursday's small change in the McClellan Oscillator (+10.92) argue for a short-term peak by Monday. The HUI finished an EW 5-wave rally on the 5-min chart Wednesday and that prompted us to take short-term profits on our Jan/Feb equity calls on gold and oil stocks. We expect to repurchase our positions by the 1/11-1/12 turn window which should give us a Wave 2 low in the HUI. Gold clearly made an important low Thursday at $1525 in the 12/29-12/30 turning point window and reversed to the upside with a 5-wave impulsive rally – a sizable rally into February is expected but we should get a higher low into the third week of January. The GLD also gave us a capitulation volume on 12/29– we're looking for a bounce to the top of the daily range – buy gold, silver and gold stocks on dips. The HUI may have finished a EW double zig-zag corrective pattern on the weekly chart – multi-year lows in bullish sentiment on the whisperumber.com poll argue that a Major Buy Point for gold stocks is at hand.

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that has morphed into a contracting triangle on the daily chart. We believe that this triangle will break to the upside into the New Year. We should get a tradable bounce into January – watch the PMs for a leading signal.

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – The daily chart of gold appears to have finished the Wave C of a large EW a-b-c corrective pattern from the September high on 12/29. Gold made a major low today at $1525 as the 12-wk cycle low bottomed in the 12/29-12/30 turn window – buy the PMs on dips.

• Stocks – The ES broke north out of the contracting triangle pattern on the daily chart – this is bullish. The rally pattern on the hourly does not look complete – a spike higher into the Monday Full Moon should be reversed down into the 1/11-1/12 turning point window.
• Gold – Gold bottomed and rallied late on Monday's Full Moon – looking for a retrace into 1/11-1/12. BUY GOLD + GOLD STOCKS on dips for a tradable bounce. The HUI appears to have finished an EW double zig-zag pattern on the weekly chart on 12/29. Since the whisper number bullishness on the HUI reached 6.9% - a multi-year low on 12/23 – we think that gold stocks are a Major Buy as we enter 2012.
• Silver – Silver made a double bottom at 26.15 on the daily chart on 12/29 – it also appears that the 48-wk cycle low may have bottomed last week – buy on dips.
• Stocks – The bonds finished an EW a-b-c decline on the hourly and are bouncing correctively.
• Crude oil – After declining in an EW 5-wave pattern early today, oil reversed up hard late in the day. Iranian tensions and a rolling supply shock from the 2008-2009 washout should give us another price spike above $100 going into the first half of 2012.
• Dollar index – The DX reversed down hard today on the hourly chart but the pattern is only 3-wave corrective. Our target of .90 appears to be farther off in time – perhaps in early 2012 as the next stage of the European debt crisis rears its head.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:     

The Full Moon on 1/9 should give us a reversal down in the broad market ad the PMs – a spike to higher highs on Monday should be reversed into the 1/11-1/12 turning point window.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL LATE-DECEMBER – TIME TARGET FOR MAJOR CYCLE LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.33 -.01) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.04 -.04) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.41 +.035)– Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.418 -.017)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.254 -.00) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly JDV Market Timer – January 8, 2012

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

1/08/12 (Commentary for Sunday) The ES is close to finishing an EW 5-wave rally pattern small from 12/29 – looking for spike higher into Monday's Full Moon before a reversal down. A 52-wk low in the all-index put/call ratio (Thursday) and a small change in the McClellan Oscillator (+10.92) argue for a short-term peak by Monday. The HUI finished an EW 5-wave rally on the 5-min chart Wednesday and that prompted us to take short-term profits on our Jan/Feb equity calls on gold and oil stocks. We expect to repurchase our positions by the 1/11-1/12 turn window which should give us a Wave 2 low in the HUI. Gold clearly made an important low Thursday at $1525 in the 12/29-12/30 turning point window and reversed to the upside with a 5-wave impulsive rally – a sizable rally into February is expected but we should get a higher low into the third week of January. The GLD also gave us a capitulation volume on 12/29– we're looking for a bounce to the top of the daily range – buy gold, silver and gold stocks on dips. The HUI may have finished a EW double zig-zag corrective pattern on the weekly chart – multi-year lows in bullish sentiment on the whisperumber.com poll argue that a Major Buy Point for gold stocks is at hand.

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that has morphed into a contracting triangle on the daily chart. We believe that this triangle will break to the upside into the New Year. We should get a tradable bounce into January – watch the PMs for a leading signal.

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – The daily chart of gold appears to have finished the Wave C of a large EW a-b-c corrective pattern from the September high on 12/29. Gold made a major low today at $1525 as the 12-wk cycle low bottomed in the 12/29-12/30 turn window – buy the PMs on dips.

• Stocks – The ES broke north out of the contracting triangle pattern on the daily chart – this is bullish. The rally pattern on the hourly does not look complete – a spike higher into the Full Moon should be reversed down into the 1/11-1/12 turning point window.
• Gold – Gold may give us a spike into Monday's Full Moon – should then retrace into 1/11-1/12. BUY GOLD + GOLD STOCKS on dips for a tradable bounce. The HUI appears to have finished an EW double zig-zag pattern on the weekly chart on 12/29. Since the whisper number bullishness on the HUI reached 6.9% - a multi-year low on 12/23 – we think that gold stocks are a Major Buy as we enter 2012.
• Silver – Silver made a double bottom at 26.15 on the daily chart on 12/29 – it also appears that the 48-wk cycle low may have bottomed last week – buy on dips. Silver may be setting up for a spike into Monday's Full Moon.
• Bonds – The bonds may have finished an EW a-b-c decline on the hourly and are starting a rally into next week.
• Crude oil – Oil appears to be giving us a pull back into the 1/6-1/9 turn window. Iranian tensions and a rolling supply shock from the 2008-2009 washout should give us another price spike above $100 going into the first half of 2012.
• Dollar index – The DX finished an EW a-b-c decline on the hourly chart and gave us a 5-wave rally into the 1/6-1/9 – looking for a reversal down on Monday. Our target of .90 appears to be farther off in time – perhaps in early 2012 as the next stage of the European debt crisis rears its head.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:     

The Full Moon on 1/9 should give us a reversal down in the broad market ad the PMs – a spike to higher highs on Monday should be reversed into the 1/11-1/12 turning point window.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL LATE-DECEMBER – TIME TARGET FOR MAJOR CYCLE LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.345 +.02) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.08 -.02) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.375 -.005)– Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.450 +.00)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.254 -.002) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – January 5, 2012

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

1/05/12 (Commentary for Thursday) The ES is close to finishing an EW 5-wave rally pattern small from 12/29 – looking for an early peak tomorrow before a pull back into Monday. A 52-wk low in the all-index put/call ratio and a small change in the McClellan Oscillator (+10.92) argue for a short-term peak here. The HUI finished an EW 5-wave rally on the 5-min chart Wednesday and that prompted us to take short-term profits on our Jan/Feb equity calls on gold and oil stocks. We expect to repurchase our positions by the 1/9 turn window which should give us a Wave 2 low in the HUI. Gold clearly made an important low Thursday at $1525 in the 12/29-12/30 turning point window and reversed to the upside with a 5-wave impulsive rally – a sizable rally into February is expected but we should get a higher low into the third week of January. The GLD also gave us a capitulation volume on 12/29– we're looking for a bounce to the top of the daily range – buy gold, silver and gold stocks on dips. The HUI may have finished a EW double zig-zag corrective pattern on the weekly chart – multi-year lows in bullish sentiment on the whisperumber.com poll argue that a Major Buy Point for gold stocks is at hand.

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that has morphed into a contracting triangle on the daily chart. We believe that this triangle will break to the upside into the New Year. We should get a tradable bounce into January – watch the PMs for a leading signal.

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – The daily chart of gold appears to have finished the Wave C of a large EW a-b-c corrective pattern from the September high on 12/29. Gold made a major low today at $1525 as the 12-wk cycle low bottomed in the 12/29-12/30 turn window – buy the PMs on dips.

• Stocks – The ES broke north out of the contracting triangle pattern on the daily chart – this is bullish but the ES still needs to overcome stiff resistance at 1288 – a retest of the breakout line is likely going into 1/6-1/9.
• Gold – Gold made higher highs today but silver and the HUI bearishly diverged – looking for a pullback into 1/6-1/9 to reload. BUY GOLD + GOLD STOCKS on dips for a tradable bounce. The HUI appears to have finished an EW double zig-zag pattern on the weekly chart on 12/29. Since the whisper number bullishness on the HUI reached 6.9% - a multi-year low on 12/23 – we think that gold stocks are a Major Buy as we enter 2012.
• Silver – Silver made a double bottom at 26.15 on the daily chart on 12/29 – it also appears that the 48-wk cycle low may have bottomed last week – buy on dips. We may have seen an important intermediate low – buy on dips. Silver appears to have bottomed in the key 12/29-12/30 time window – our short-term bullish EW count will be negated if $27.60 is taken to the downside on Jan.3.
• Bonds – The bonds declined impulsively on the 5-min chart – this may be indicating the start of an asset shift toward stocks.
• Crude oil – Oil appears to be giving us a pull back into the 1/6-1/9 turn window. Iranian tensions and a rolling supply shock from the 2008-2009 washout should give us another price spike above $100 going into the first half of 2012.
• Dollar index – The DX may have finished an EW a-b-c decline on the hourly chart – a bounce into the 1/6-1/9 turn window is expected. Our target of .90 appears to be farther off in time – perhaps in early 2012 as the next stage of the European debt crisis rears its head.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:     

We have a big reversal day on Jan.2 which is a market holiday for most markets – watch Jan. 3 for important price reversals in stocks or the PMs.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL LATE-DECEMBER – TIME TARGET FOR MAJOR CYCLE LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.325 -.035) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.10 +.02) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.38 +.01)– Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.450 +.0265)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.256 +.006) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – January 4, 2012

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

1/04/12 (Commentary for Wednesday) The NDX gave us a Negative Volume Reversal Day today and it appears that the NDX wants to retest the breakout point on the "contracting triangle pattern in the 1/6-1/9 turn window before heading higher. The HUI finished an EW 5-wave rally on the 5-min chart early today and that prompted us to take short-term profits on our Jan/Feb equity calls on gold and oil stocks. We expect to repurchase our positions by the 1/6-1/9 turn window which may give us a Wave 2 low in the HUI. Gold made higher highs but silver and the HUI bearishly diverged suggesting a small pull back may get underway soon. Gold clearly made an important low Thursday at $1525 in the 12/29-12/30 turning point window and reversed to the upside with a 5-wave impulsive rally – a sizable rally into February is expected but we should get a higher low into the third week of January. The GLD also gave us a capitulation volume on 12/29– we're looking for a bounce to the top of the daily range – buy gold, silver and gold stocks on dips. The HUI may have finished a EW double zig-zag corrective pattern on the weekly chart – multi-year lows in bullish sentiment on the whisperumber.com poll argue that a Major Buy Point for gold stocks is at hand.

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that has morphed into a contracting triangle on the daily chart. We believe that this triangle will break to the upside into the New Year. We should get a tradable bounce into January – watch the PMs for a leading signal.

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – The daily chart of gold appears to have finished the Wave C of a large EW a-b-c corrective pattern from the September high on 12/29. Gold made a major low today at $1525 as the 12-wk cycle low bottomed in the 12/29-12/30 turn window – buy the PMs on dips.

• Stocks – The ES broke north out of the contracting triangle pattern on the daily chart – this is bullish but the ES still needs to overcome stiff resistance at 1288 – a retest of the breakout line is likely going into 1/6-1/9. The rise of bullish sentiment to 52% in the Wall Street Sentiment Survey on 12/23 makes us cautious going into the New Year but the price action in gold suggests a short-term break out into mid-January.
• Gold – Gold made higher highs today but silver and the HUI bearishly diverged – looking for a pullback into 1/6-1/9 to reload. BUY GOLD + GOLD STOCKS on dips for a tradable bounce. The HUI appears to have finished an EW double zig-zag pattern on the weekly chart on 12/29. Since the whisper number bullishness on the HUI reached 6.9% - a multi-year low on 12/23 – we think that gold stocks are a Major Buy as we enter 2012.
• Silver – Silver made a double bottom at 26.15 on the daily chart on 12/29 – it also appears that the 48-wk cycle low may have bottomed last week – buy on dips. We may have seen an important intermediate low – buy on dips. Silver appears to have bottomed in the key 12/29-12/30 time window – our short-term bullish EW count will be negated if $27.60 is taken to the downside on Jan.3.
• Bonds – The bonds declined impulsively on the 5-min chart – this may be indicating the start of an asset shift toward stocks.
• Crude oil – Oil bottomed in the 12/29-12/30 turn window and reversed up impulsively – the rally today looked very bullish and saw minimal retracement. Iranian tensions and a rolling supply shock from the 2008-2009 washout should give us another price spike above $100 going into the first half of 2012.
• Dollar index – The DX may have finished an EW a-b-c decline on the hourly chart – a bounce into the 1/6-1/9 turn window is expected. Our target of .90 appears to be farther off in time – perhaps in early 2012 as the next stage of the European debt crisis rears its head.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:     

We have a big reversal day on Jan.2 which is a market holiday for most markets – watch Jan. 3 for important price reversals in stocks or the PMs.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL LATE-DECEMBER – TIME TARGET FOR MAJOR CYCLE LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.360 +.005) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.08 +.03) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.37 +.03)– Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.450 +.0265)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.25 +.00) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – January 3, 2012

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

1/03/12 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX and NDX broke north out of their respective large contracting triangle formations on their daily charts – this is short-term bullish but SPX=1288 is the next formidable resistance – we have to be mindful of bearish divergences between the DJIA and the SPX going into the New Year. Gold clearly made an important low Thursday at $1525 in the 12/29-12/30 turning point window and reversed to the upside with a 5-wave impulsive rally – a sizable rally into February is expected but we should get a higher low into the third week of January. The GLD also gave us a capitulation volume o 12/29– we're looking for a bounce to the top of the daily range – buy gold, silver and gold stocks on dips. The HUI may have finished a EW double zig-zag corrective pattern on the weekly chart – multi-year lows in bullish sentiment on the whisperumber.com poll argue that a Major Buy Point for gold stocks is at hand. Taking out Thursday's low in oil ($98.30) will negate our short-term bullish posture for stocks.

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that has morphed into a contracting triangle on the daily chart. We believe that this triangle will break to the upside into the New Year. We should get a tradable bounce into January – watch the PMs for a leading signal.

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – The daily chart of gold appears to have finished the Wave C of a large EW a-b-c corrective pattern from the September high on 12/29. Gold made a major low today at $1525 as the 12-wk cycle low bottomed in the 12/29-12/30 turn window – buy the PMs on dips.

• Stocks – The ES broke north out of the contracting triangle pattern on the daily chart – this is bullish but the ES still needs to overcome stiff resistance at 1288. The rise of bullish sentiment to 52% in the Wall Street Sentiment Survey on 12/23 makes us cautious going into the New Year but the price action in gold suggests a short-term break out into mid-January.
• Gold – the 12-wk cycle low bottomed into the 12/29-12/30 turn window – BUY GOLD + GOLD STOCKS on dips for a tradable bounce. The HUI appears to have finished an EW double zig-zag pattern on the weekly chart on 12/29. Since the whisper number bullishness on the HUI reached 6.9% - a multi-year low on 12/23 – we think that gold stocks are a Major Buy as we enter 2012.
• Silver – Silver made a double bottom at 26.15 on the daily chart on 12/29 – it also appears that the 48-wk cycle low may have bottomed last week – buy on dips. We may have seen an important intermediate low – buy on dips. Silver appears to have bottomed in the key 12/29-12/30 time window – our short-term bullish EW count will by negated if $27.60 is taken to the downside on Jan.3.
• Bonds – The bonds declined impulsively on the 5-min chart – this may be indicating the start of an asset shift toward stocks .
• Crude oil – Oil bottomed in the 12/29-12/30 turn window and reversed up impulsively – the rally today looked very bullish and saw minimal retracement. Iranian tensions and a rolling supply shock from the 2008-2009 washout should give us another price spike above $100 going into the first half of 2012.
• Dollar index – The DX peaked a B-wave on the hourly on 12/29 and is retracing in a C-wave down. Our target of .90 appears to be farther off in time – perhaps in early 2012 as the next stage of the European debt crisis rears its head.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:     

We have a big reversal day on Jan.2 which is a market holiday for most markets – watch Jan. 3 for important price reversals in stocks or the PMs.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL LATE-DECEMBER – TIME TARGET FOR MAJOR CYCLE LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.355 +.035) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.05 -.01) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.34 +.03)– Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.4235 +.01)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.25 +.01) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

The Weekly JDV Market Timer – January 2, 2011

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

1/02/12 (Commentary for Monday) The large contracting triangle formation that has formed on the daily chart of the Nasdaq and SPX is close to the apex - a breakout is imminent – we're looking for a break to the upside into mid-January – but we have to be mindful of bearish divergences between the DJIA and the SPX going into the New Year. The Nasdaq found support on the uptrending line of the triangle – a resolution to the upside is expected – at least into mid-January. Gold made an important low Thursday at $1525 in the 12/29-12/30 turning point window and reversed to the upside with a 5-wave impulsive rally. The GLD also gave us a capitulation volume – we're looking for a bounce to the top of the daily range – buy gold, silver and gold stocks on dips. The HUI may have finished a EW double zig-zag corrective pattern on the weekly chart – multi-year lows in bullish sentiment on the whisperumber.com poll argue that a Major Buy Point for gold stocks is at hand. Taking out Thursday's low in oil ($98.30) will negate our short-term bullish posture for stocks.

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that has morphed into a contracting triangle on the daily chart. We believe that this triangle will break to the upside into the New Year. We should get a tradable bounce into January – watch the PMs for a leading signal.

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – The daily chart of gold appears to have finished the Wave C of a large EW a-b-c corrective pattern from the September high on 12/29. Gold made a major low today at $1525 as the 12-wk cycle low bottomed in the 12/29-12/30 turn window – buy the PMs on dips.

• Stocks – The Nasdaq found support on the uptrend line of the contracting triangle on the daily chart – looking for a break out into the New Year. The rise of bullish sentiment to 52% in the Wall Street Sentiment Survey on 12/23 makes us cautious going into the New Year but the price action in gold suggests a short-term break out into mid-January.
• Gold – the 12-wk cycle low bottomed into the 12/29-12/30 turn window – BUY GOLD + GOLD STOCKS on dips for a tradable bounce. The HUI appears to have finished an EW double zig-zag pattern on the weekly chart on 12/29. Since the whisper number bullishness on the HUI reached 6.9% - a multi-year low on 12/23 – we think that gold stocks are a Major Buy as we enter 2012.
• Silver – Silver found major support at 26.15 and reversed up impulsively. We may have seen an important intermediate low – buy on dips. Silver appears to have bottomed in the key 12/29-12/30 time window – our short-term bullish EW count will by negated if $27.60 is taken to the downside on Jan.3.
• Bonds – The bonds appear to be rallying impulsively – this calls into question out view that stocks should bounce the first week of 2012.
• Crude oil – Oil bottomed in the 12/29-12/30 turn window and reversed up impulsively – taking out the low of 12/29 would be short-term bearish for all commodity markets. Iranian tensions and a rolling supply shock from the 2008-2009 washout should give us another price spike above $100 going into the first half of 2012.
• Dollar index – The DX may have peaked a B-wave on the hourly on Thursday and is retracing in a C-wave down. Starkey has Weekly Reversal Timing for the week of Jan. 3 - but it might have come one week early – this week should tell us. Our target of .90 appears to be farther off in time – perhaps in early 2012 as the next stage of the European debt crisis rears its head.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:     

We have a big reversal day on Jan.2 which is a market holiday for most markets – watch Jan. 3 for important price reversals in stocks or the PMs.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL LATE-DECEMBER – TIME TARGET FOR MAJOR CYCLE LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.32 +.02) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.06 +.09) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.345 -.015)– Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.418 +.011)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.23 -.011) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.