All Star Market Timing

The Weekly JDV Market Timer – November 13, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

11/13/11 (Commentary for Sunday) We got an EW 5-wave decline from 11/8 into Wednesday's Full Moon for the ES but the subsequent rally is looking CORRECTIVE – looking for a REVERSAL down on Monday and then a decline into the 11/21 turn window before a big reversal up. For the intermediate term, the ES looks bullish – frequent values of > +200 on the McClellan Oscillator argue for higher prices by December/January. A large bullish majority in the Wall Street Sentiment Survey (10/28) is a negative from a contrary opinion point of view – bearish majorities have underscored the rally phases in this bear market. The CDNX (a proxy for mining juniors) appears to need another leg down to finish a large corrective pattern – a market washout into November 21 may provide another trading opportunity to add to juniors but tax-loss selling will have to be dealt with. The COT numbers on gold and silver are bullish here – the HUI and GDXJ may be testing highs by mid- December based on compelling historical patterns with 2006. Economic data from China including year-over-year electricity consumption, MET coal imports and trade data with Taiwan all suggest a harder landing in China than anticipated. The breakdown in copper below August lows is a bearish signal for the entire commodities board. Our fundamental view is that China is experiencing a "hard landing" which combined with the European debt crisis should give us another leg down in the global bear market after a rally runs its course into December/January. The Dollar Index is pulling back correctively on the hourly chart – looking for a bottom on Monday - BULLISH. A rally to .90 resistance on the DX weekly chart by spring is likely.

   

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that should run late into the year. Looking for a pull back into the 11/18-11/21 turn window before the next phase of the corrective rally.

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – This year is comparing well with 2006 – a parabolic blow off in the spring and then a stiff >20% decline into October. We're looking for an explosive rally to start in the PM sector by the 11/18-11/21 turn window – this should run into December/January. Testing highs in the HUI by early December is likely.

   

• Stocks – The ES gave us an EW 5-wave decline into Wednesday's Full Moon on the 5 min chart – but only a CORRECTIVE bounce after – looking for a short-term top on Monday and then a reversal down into 11/21.
• Gold – We finished an EW 5-waves down on the 5 min chart into the Full Moon but the following rally is looking CORRECTIVE – looking for a reversal down on Monday that should bottom by 11/21.
• Sllver – We finished an EW 5-waves down on the 5 min chart into the Full Moon but the following rally islooking CORRECTIVE – looking for a leg down to test the Full moon low..
• Bonds – The bonds may have finished their correction on the hourly chat – we saw an EW 5-wave decline on the 5 min chart. Looking for a retest of the yearly highs soon.
• Crude oil – Crude should peak for the week on Monday before giving us a retracement.
• Dollar index – The DX appears to be tracing out a bullish EW 1-2,1-2 pattern on the hourly - short-term bullish. One more leg down on the 5 min should give us a reversal up. However, our target of .90 appears to be farther off in time – perhaps in early 2012 as the next stage of the European debt crisis rears its head.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:

We have a reversal window for 11/14 and are expecting a weekly high for the ES. An important turn window on 11/21 should give us an important intermediate low for the ES and PMs.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL LATE-OCTOBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.45 +.01) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.25 +.09) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.4550 +.015) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.55 -.03)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.3088 -.0082) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – November 10, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

11/0/11 (Commentary for Thursday) ALERT! We got an EW 5-wave decline from 11/8 into today's Full Moon for the ES but the subsequent rally looked CORRECTIVE – unless we see an impulsive rally on Friday, more decline into the 11/18=11/21 turn window is likely. For the intermediate term, the ES looks bullish – frequent values of > +200 on the McClellan Oscillator argue for higher prices by December/January. A large bullish majority in the Wall Street Sentiment Survey (10/28) is a negative from a contrary opinion point of view – bearish majorities have underscored the rally phases in this bear market. The CDNX (a proxy for mining juniors) appears to need another leg down to finish a large corrective pattern – a market washout into November 21 may provide another trading opportunity to add to juniors but tax-loss selling will have to be dealt with. The COT numbers on gold and silver are bullish here – the HUI and GDXJ may be testing highs by early December based on compelling historical patterns with 2006. Economic data from China including year-over-year electricity consumption, MET coal imports and trade data with Taiwan all suggest a harder landing in China than anticipated. The breakdown in copper below August lows is a bearish signal for the entire commodities board. Our fundamental view is that China is experiencing a "hard landing" which combined with the European debt crisis should give us another leg down in the global bear market after a rally runs its course into December/January. The Dollar Index is making a sideways consolidation into the 11/8-11/10 turn window - BULLISH. A rally to .90 resistance on the DX weekly chart by spring is likely.

   

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that should run late into the year. Looking for a pull back into the 11/18-11/23 turn window before the next phase of the corrective rally.

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – This year is comparing well with 2006 – a parabolic blow off in the spring and then a stiff >20% decline into October. We're looking for an explosive rally to start in the PM sector by the 11/18-11/23 turn window – this should run into December/January. Testing highs in the HUI by early December is likely.

   

• Stocks – Looks like the ES peaked on 11/8 – it gave us an EW 5-wave decline into today's Full Moon on the 5 min chart – but only a CORRECTIVE bounce after – looking for more decline into next week.
• Gold – We finished an EW 5-waves down on the 5 min chart into the Full Moon but the following rally looked CORRECTIVE – need an impulsive rally on Friday or we will get more decline into the 11/18/11/21 turn window
• Sllver – We finished an EW 5-waves down on the 5 min chart into the Full Moon but the following rally looked CORRECTIVE – need an impulsive rally on Friday or we will get more decline into the 11/18/11/21 turn window.
• Bonds – The bonds may have finished their correction on the hourly chat – we saw an EW 5-wave decline on the 5 min chart. Looking for a retest of the yearly highs soon.
• Crude oil – Crude rallied to weekly highs on the Full Moon Window – a stronger dollar should give us a decline here but price has been resilient. The news about Iran's nuclear weapons program gave Brent crude a boost.
• Dollar index – The DX appears to be tracing out a bullish EW 1-2,1-2pattern on the hourly = short-term bullish. However, our target of .90 appears to be farther off in time – perhaps in early 2012 as the next stage of the European debt crisis rears its head.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:

The 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 10/4 low should give us a turn in the ES. The Full Moon on 11/10 should also be an important turn this week in several markets. The PMs should make a high in the 11/8-11/10 turn window followed by a selloff into 11/18-11/23 or so.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL LATE-OCTOBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.44 -.01) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.16 +.02) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.44 -.07) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.5240 -.0270)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.317 +.0130) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – November 9, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

11/9/11 (Commentary for Wednesday) The 11/8-11/10 turn window gave us a high for the week on 11/8 ( the 34-day Fib step out) and is looking to give us a low on the Full Moon (11/10). The (OPR/MO) sell signal and the TRIN5 sell signal both were confirmed today. The DAX (German stock market) should take out Wednesday's lows to finish a corrective pattern – looking for a low and reversal higher tomorrow in the ES. For the intermediate term, the ES looks bullish – frequent values of > +200 on the McClellan Oscillator argue for higher prices by December/January. A large bullish majority in the Wall Street Sentiment Survey (10/21) is a negative from a contrary opinion point of view – bearish majorities have underscored the rally phases in this bear market. The CDNX (a proxy for mining juniors) appears to need another leg down to finish a large corrective pattern – a market washout into November 21 may provide another trading opportunity to add to juniors but tax-loss selling will have to be dealt with. The COT numbers on gold and silver are bullish here – the HUI and GDXJ may be testing highs by early December based on compelling historical patterns with 2006. Economic data from China including year-over-year electricity consumption, MET coal imports and trade data with Taiwan all suggest a harder landing in China than anticipated. The breakdown in copper below August lows is a bearish signal for the entire commodities board. Our fundamental view is that China is experiencing a "hard landing" which combined with the European debt crisis should give us another leg down in the global bear market after a rally runs its course into December/January. The Dollar Index is making a sideways consolidation into the 11/8-11/10 turn window - BULLISH. A rally to .90 resistance on the DX weekly chart by spring is likely.

   

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that should run late into the year. Looking for a pull back into the 11/18-11/23 turn window before the next phase of the corrective rally.

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – This year is comparing well with 2006 – a parabolic blow off in the spring and then a stiff >20% decline into October. We're looking for an explosive rally to start in the PM sector by the 11/18-11/23 turn window – this should run into December/January. Testing highs in the HUI by early December is likely.

   

• Stocks – The (OPR/MO) sell signal in the ES was confirmed today. The DAX should take out Wednesday's low and then reverse higher and the ES should follow.
• Gold – Gold appears to have finished an EW a-b-c correction on the hourly – looking for a reversal up.
• Sllver – Silver also appears to have finished an EW a-b-c correction on the hourly – looking for a reversal up on the Full Moon.
• Bonds – The bonds appear close to the end of a consolidation period on the hourly chart – looking for a leg down tomorrow on the Full Moon.
• Crude oil – Crude may have peaked in the Full Moon Timing Window – a stronger dollar should give us a decline here but price has been resilient. The news about Iran's nuclear weapons program gave Brent crude a boost.
• Dollar index – The DX gave us an EW 5-wave rally on the 5 min chart to confirm a short-term low. However, our target of .90 appears to be farther off in time – perhaps in early 2012 as the next stage of the European debt crisis rears its head.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:

The 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 10/4 low should give us a turn in the ES. The Full Moon on 11/10 should also be an important turn this week in several markets. The PMs should make a high in the 11/8-11/10 turn window followed by a selloff into 11/18-11/23 or so.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL LATE-OCTOBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.45 -.03) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.14 -.08) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.51 -.00) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.5240 -.0270)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.3040 -.0360) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – November 8, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

11/8/11 (Commentary for Tuesday) The ES tried to reverse down early but failed – the market appears to be tracing out a broadening top pattern into the 11/8-11/10 turn window. A fall in the TRIN5 to 3.72 also triggered another SELL signal. The ES is still under the (OPR/MO) sell signal from Monday – the ES is close to topping a B-wave rally from 11/1 on the hourly chart – best bet is for a high in the 11/8-11/10 turn window followed by a decline into the 11/18-11/23 turn window. For the intermediate term, the ES looks bullish – frequent values of > +200 on the McClellan Oscillator argue for higher prices by December/January. A large bullish majority in the Wall Street Sentiment Survey (10/21) is a negative from a contrary opinion point of view – bearish majorities have underscored the rally phases in this bear market. The CDNX (a proxy for mining juniors) appears to need another leg down to finish a large corrective pattern – a market washout into November 21 may provide another trading opportunity to add to juniors but tax-loss selling will have to be dealt with. The COT numbers on gold and silver are bullish here – the HUI and GDXJ may be testing highs by early December based on compelling historical patterns with 2006. Economic data from China including year-over-year electricity consumption, MET coal imports and trade data with Taiwan all suggest a harder landing in China than anticipated. The breakdown in copper below August lows is a bearish signal for the entire commodities board. Our fundamental view is that China is experiencing a "hard landing" which combined with the European debt crisis should give us another leg down in the global bear market after a rally runs its course into December/January. The Dollar Index is making a sideways consolidation into the 11/8-11/10 turn window - BULLISH. A rally to .90 resistance on the DX weekly chart by spring is likely.

   

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that should run late into the year. Looking for a pull back into the 11/18-11/23 turn window before the next phase of the corrective rally.

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – This year is comparing well with 2006 – a parabolic blow off in the spring and then a stiff >20% decline into October. We're looking for an explosive rally to start in the PM sector by the 11/18-11/23 turn window – this should run into December/January. Testing highs in the HUI by early December is likely.

   

• Stocks – We're still on an (OPR/MO) sell signal in the ES today. The market appears to tracing out a broadening top pattern on the 5 min chart. We are looking for a high in the 11/8-11/10 turn window before a C-Wave down on the hourly chart.
• Gold – We are expecting gold to peak between $1800-$1821 by the Full Moon on 11/10 and then decline into 11/21.
• Sllver – Silver has been underperforming gold since 10/4 and argues for another leg down after the Full Moon on 11/10.
• Bonds – The bonds appear close to the end of a consolidation period on the hourly chart – looking for a reversal up and test of highs soon..
• Crude oil – Looking for continued rally into the Full Moon before another decline. The news about Iran's nuclear weapons program gave Brent crude a boost.
• Dollar index – The DX consolidation appears to have one more lower low to go on the hourly chart as we approach the Full Moon. However, our target of .90 appears to be farther off in time – perhaps in early 2012 as the next stage of the European debt crisis rears its head.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:

The 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 10/4 low should give us a turn in the ES. The Full Moon on 11/10 should also be an important turn this week in several markets. The PMs should make a high in the 11/8-11/10 turn window followed by a selloff into 11/18-11/23 or so.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL LATE-OCTOBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.48 -.00) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.22 +.07) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.51 -.00) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.5510 +.0410)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.34 +.00) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – November 7, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

11/7/11 (Commentary for Monday) We are expecting a reversal down tomorrow for the ES on the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 10/4 low. The 10/4 low was an EMOTIONAL TURNING POINT for several markets and since 10/4 was an important low we are expecting tomorrow to be a high/reversal down day for the ES. We also got an (OPR/MO) SELL SIGNAL for stocks – a Large Divergent Decline in the Option Premium Ratio + a small change in the McClellan Oscillator (-5.72) – the ES is close to topping a B-wave rally from 11/1 on the hourly chart – best bet is for a high in the 11/8-11/10 turn window followed by a decline into the 11/18-11/23 turn window. For the intermediate term, the ES looks bullish – frequent values of > +200 on the McClellan Oscillator argue for higher prices by December/January. A large bullish majority in the Wall Street Sentiment Survey (10/21) is a negative from a contrary opinion point of view – bearish majorities have underscored the rally phases in this bear market. The CDNX (a proxy for mining juniors) appears to need another leg down to finish a large corrective pattern – a market washout into November 21 may provide another trading opportunity to add to juniors but tax-loss selling will have to be dealt with. The COT numbers on gold and silver are bullish here – the HUI and GDXJ may be testing highs by early December based on compelling historical patterns with 2006. Economic data from China including year-over-year electricity consumption, MET coal imports and trade data with Taiwan all suggest a harder landing in China than anticipated. The breakdown in copper below August lows is a bearish signal for the entire commodities board. Our fundamental view is that China is experiencing a "hard landing" which combined with the European debt crisis should give us another leg down in the global bear market after a rally runs its course into December/January. The Dollar Index is making a sideways consolidation into the 11/8-11/10 turn window - BULLISH. A rally to .90 resistance on the DX weekly chart by spring is likely.

   

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that should run late into the year. Looking for a pull back into the 11/18-11/23 turn window before the next phase of the corrective rally.

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – This year is comparing well with 2006 – a parabolic blow off in the spring and then a stiff >20% decline into October. We're looking for an explosive rally to start in the PM sector by the 11/18-11/23 turn window – this should run into December/January. Testing highs in the HUI by early December is likely.

   

• Stocks – We got an (OPR/MO) sell signal in the ES today. We expect the ES to make a HIGH/REVERSAL down day tomorrow on the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 10/04 low. We are looking for a high in the 11/8-11/10 turn window before a C-Wave down on the hourly chart.
• Gold – We are expecting gold to peak between $1800-$1821 by the Full Moon on 11/10 and then decline into 11/21.
• Sllver – Silver has been underperforming gold since 10/4 and argues for another leg down after the Full Moon on 11/10.
• Bonds – The bonds appear to be coiling for a test of the highs.
• Crude oil – Looking for a rally into the Full Moon before another decline. The news about Iran's nuclear weapons program gave Brent crude a boost.
• Dollar index – The DX is working sideways into the 11/8-11/10 turn window – SHORT TERM BULLISH. However, our target of .90 appears to be farther off in time – perhaps in early 2012 as the next stage of the European debt crisis rears its head.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:

The 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 10/4 low should give us a turn in the ES. The Full Moon on 11/10 should also be an important turn this week in several markets. The PMs should make a high in the 11/8-11/10 turn window followed by a selloff into 11/18-11/23 or so.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL LATE-OCTOBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.48 -.00) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.15 -.06) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.51 -.00) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.51 -.0055)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.34 +.01) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly JDV Market Timer – November 6, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

11/6/11 (Commentary for Sunday) A Large Divergent Rally in the Option Premium Ratio argues for strength Monday – an early decline related to the abrupt CME margin hikes should be bought. A 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 10/4 low (11/8) should give us a turn in several markets – the ES is close to topping a B-wave rally from 11/1 on the hourly chart – best bet is for a high in the 11/8-11/10 turn window followed by a decline into the 11/18-11/23 turn window. For the intermediate term, the ES looks bullish – frequent values of > +200 on the McClellan Oscillator argue for higher prices by December/January. A large bullish majority in the Wall Street Sentiment Survey (10/21) is a negative from a contrary opinion point of view – bearish majorities have underscored the rally phases in this bear market. The CDNX (a proxy for mining juniors) appears to need another leg down to finish a large corrective pattern – a market washout into November 21 may provide another trading opportunity to add to juniors but tax-loss selling will have to be dealt with. The COT numbers on gold and silver are bullish here – the HUI and GDXJ may be testing highs by early December based on compelling historical patterns with 2006. Economic data from China including year-over-year electricity consumption, MET coal imports and trade data with Taiwan all suggest a harder landing in China than anticipated. The breakdown in copper below August lows is a bearish signal for the entire commodities board. Our fundamental view is that China is experiencing a "hard landing" which combined with the European debt crisis should give us another leg down in the global bear market after a rally runs its course into December/January. The Dollar Index should ideally decline into the 11/10 Full Moon before getting a reversal up. A rally to .90 resistance on the DX weekly chart by spring is likely.

   

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that should run late into the year. Looking for a pull back into the 11/18-11/23 turn window before the next phase of the corrective rally.

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – This year is comparing well with 2006 – a parabolic blow off in the spring and then a stiff >20% decline into October. We're looking for an explosive rally to start in the PM sector by the 11/18-11/23 turn window – this should run into December/January. Testing highs in the HUI by early December is likely.

   

• Stocks – A Large Divergent Rally in the Option Premium Ratio argues for strength on Monday – the 34-Fibonacci step out from the important 10/4 low falls on 11/8 – we are looking for a high in the 11/8-11/10 turn window before a C-Wave down on the hourly chart.
• Gold – Looking for a high in the 11/8-11/10 turn window – then a sell off into 11/18-11/23 turn window. Based on historical patterns, this market feels like 2006 which also had a parabolic blow off in the spring and a stiff decline into October.
• Sllver – Silver has been underperforming gold since 10/4 and argues for another leg down after the Full Moon on 11/10.
• Bonds – The bonds should get another leg up on the hourly after 10/10.
• Crude oil – Looking for a rally into the Full Moon before another decline.
• Dollar index – Looking for the DX to decline into the Full Moon before a reversal up. However, our target of .90 appears to be farther off in time – perhaps in early 2012 as the next stage of the European debt crisis rears its head.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:

The 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 10/4 low should give us a turn in the ES. The Full Moon on 11/10 should also be an important turn this week in several markets. The PMs should make a high in the 11/8-11/10 turn window followed by a selloff into 11/18-11/23 or so.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL LATE-OCTOBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.45 -.01) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.21 -.19) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.4950 -.00) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.5155 -.0230)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.3250 +.005) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – November 3, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

11/03/11 (Commentary for Thursday) The ES continued to rally correctively on the 5 min chart into the 11/2-11/3 turn window – the NFP jobs number may give us some early downside which should be bought. Looking for a bounce into the Full Moon on 11/10 before another leg down into 11/18 around ES=1180. A large bullish majority (50% vs 30%) in the Wall Street Sentiment Survey (10/28) is a negative from a contrary opinion point of view – bearish majorities have underscored the rally phases in this bear market. Mid-November may provide another trading opportunity to add to juniors but tax-loss selling will have to be dealt with as we go into December. The COT numbers on gold and silver are bullish here – the HUI and GDXJ may be testing highs by early December based on compelling historical patterns with 2006. Economic data from China including year-over-year electricity consumption, MET coal imports and trade data with Taiwan all suggest a harder landing in China than anticipated. The breakdown in copper below August lows is a bearish signal for the entire commodities board. Our fundamental view is that China is experiencing a "hard landing" which combined with the European debt crisis should give us another leg down in the global bear market. The Dollar Index confirmed a short-term low by tracing out an EW 5-wave advance on the hourly chart and then a shallow correction. A rally to .90 resistance on the DX weekly chart by spring is likely.

   

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that should run late into the year. Looking for a pull back into the 11/2 FOMC meeting before the next tradable rally.

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – This year is comparing well with 2006 – a parabolic blow off in the spring and then a stiff >20% decline into October. We're looking for an explosive rally to start in the PM sector by mid November – this should run into December/January. Testing highs in the HUI by early December is likely.

   

• Stocks – The ES rallied correctively on the 5 min chart into the 11/2-11/3 turn window – looking for a reversal down on Thursday.
• Gold – A quick leg down tomorrow in gold should be bought Friday before resuming its rally into the Full Moon last week. Based on historical patterns, this market feels like 2006 which also had a parabolic blow off in the spring and a stiff decline into October.
• Sllver – Silver is consolidating after a 5-wave rally on the hourly – a dip tomorrow should be bought.
• Bonds – The bonds rallied impulsively on the hourly chart and appear to have finished a sideways consolidation – looking for a rally tomorrow.
• Crude oil – Crude is giving us just a high-level consolidation on the hourly - bullish.
• Dollar index – The DX completed a small EW a-b-c correction o the hourly chart – looking for a reversal up. Our target of .90 on the DX appears to be farther off in time – perhaps in early 2012 as the next stage of the European debt crisis rears its head.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:

Looking for a reversal in the 11/2-11/3 turn window – it could be a high.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL LATE-OCTOBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.46 +.00) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.40 +.06) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.50 +.06) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.5385 +.0321)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.32 -.00) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – November 2, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

11/02/11 (Commentary for Tuesday) The ES rallied correctively on the 5 min chart into the 11/2-11/3 turn window – expecting a leg down tomorrow to finish an EW a-b-c correction pattern from Friday before a bounce up into early next week. For the intermediate term, the ES looks bullish – values of > +200 on the McClellan Oscillator argue for testing 2011 highs by December. A large bullish majority (50% vs 30%) in the Wall Street Sentiment Survey (10/28) is a negative from a contrary opinion point of view – bearish majorities have underscored the rally phases in this bear market. The CDNX (a proxy for mining juniors) appears to need another leg down to finish a large corrective pattern – a market washout into November may provide another trading opportunity to add to juniors but tax-loss selling will have to be dealt with. The COT numbers on gold and silver are bullish here – the HUI and GDXJ may be testing highs by early December based on compelling historical patterns with 2006. A meltdown in copper and other base metals suggests that this market decline could have some legs beyond an intermediate-term rally in October – note that the ECRI group just issued a RECESSION CALL - the second phase of the bear market may not begin until January. Economic data from China including year-over-year electricity consumption, MET coal imports and trade data with Taiwan all suggest a harder landing in China than anticipated. The breakdown in copper below August lows is a bearish signal for the entire commodities board. Our fundamental view is that China is experiencing a "hard landing" which combined with the European debt crisis should give us another leg down in the global bear market. The Dollar Index confirmed a short-term low by tracing out an EW 5-wave advance on the hourly chart. A rally to .90 resistance on the DX weekly chart by spring is likely.

   

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that should run late into the year. Looking for a pull back into the 11/2 FOMC meeting before the next tradable rally.

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – This year is comparing well with 2006 – a parabolic blow off in the spring and then a stiff >20% decline into October. We're looking for an explosive rally to start in the PM sector by mid November – this should run into December/January. Testing highs in the HUI by early December is likely.

   

• Stocks – The ES rallied correctively on the 5 min chart into the 11/2-11/3 turn window – looking for a reversal down on Thursday.
• Gold – Gold may see a quick leg down before resuming its rally into the Full Moon last week. Based on historical patterns, this market feels like 2006 which also had a parabolic blow off in the spring and a stiff decline into October.
• Sllver – Silver looks like it needs a leg down into tomorrow.
• Bonds – The bonds rallied impulsively on the hourly chart and started a sideways consolidation.
• Crude oil – Crude is giving us just a high-level consolidation on the hourly - bullish.
• Dollar index – The DX is just consolidating after a 5-wave advance on the hourly chart – bullish for another leg up. The Euro gave us a 5-wave decline and appears to want to sub-divide down more. However, our target of .90 on the DX appears to be farther off in time – perhaps in early 2012 as the next stage of the European debt crisis rears its head.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:

Looking for a reversal in the 11/2-11/3 turn window – it could be a high.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL LATE-OCTOBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.46 +.00) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.34 +.19) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.50 +.06) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.5064 +.0022)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.32 -.00) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – November 1, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

11/01/11 (Commentary for Tuesday) Looking for the ES to take out Monday's lows Tuesday before reversing up in the 11/2 turn window. A Large Divergent Rally in the Option Premium Ratio argues for a rally tomorrow. The OIH and HUI stocks got a bid as the market anticipated some QE3 jawboning by the FED in the post-FOMC statement. For the intermediate term, the ES looks bullish – values of > +200 on the McClellan Oscillator argue for testing 2011 highs by December. A large bullish majority (50% vs 30%) in the Wall Street Sentiment Survey (10/28) is a negative from a contrary opinion point of view – bearish majorities have underscored the rally phases in this bear market. The CDNX (a proxy for mining juniors) appears to need another leg down to finish a large corrective pattern – a market washout into November may provide another trading opportunity to add to juniors but tax-loss selling will have to be dealt with. The COT numbers on gold and silver are bullish here – the HUI and GDXJ may be testing highs by early December based on compelling historical patterns with 2006. A meltdown in copper and other base metals suggests that this market decline could have some legs beyond an intermediate-term rally in October – note that the ECRI group just issued a RECESSION CALL - the second phase of the bear market may not begin until January. Economic data from China including year-over-year electricity consumption, MET coal imports and trade data with Taiwan all suggest a harder landing in China than anticipated. The breakdown in copper below August lows is a bearish signal for the entire commodities board. Our fundamental view is that China is experiencing a "hard landing" which combined with the European debt crisis should give us another leg down in the global bear market. The Dollar Index confirmed a short-term low by tracing out an EW 5-wave advance on the hourly chart. A rally to .90 resistance on the DX weekly chart by spring is likely.

   

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that should run late into the year. Looking for a pull back into the 11/2 FOMC meeting before the next tradable rally.

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – This year is comparing well with 2006 – a parabolic blow off in the spring and then a stiff >20% decline into October. We're looking for an explosive rally to start in the PM sector by mid November – this should run into December/January. Testing highs in the HUI by early December is likely.

   

• Stocks – Looking for the ES to take out Monday's lows and then reverse up in the 11/2 reversal window – a bounce for a couple of days may be in order.
• Gold – Gold traded well today reversing sharply after an early low. Based on historical patterns, this market feels like 2006 which also had a parabolic blow off in the spring and a stiff decline into October.
• Sllver – Silver bounced after an early low but the pattern did not look as bullish as that for gold.
• Bonds – The bonds rallied impulsively on the hourly chart and started a sideways consolidation.
• Crude oil – Crude is giving us just a corrective pull back on the hourly.
• Dollar index – The DX is just consolidating after a 5-wave advance – bullish for another leg up. The Euro gave us a 5-wave decline and appears to want to sub-divide down more. However, our target of .90 on the DX appears to be farther off in time – perhaps in early 2012 as the next stage of the European debt crisis rears its head.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:

Looking for a reversal up in the 11/2-11/3 turn window.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL LATE-OCTOBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.46 +.01) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.15 -.21) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.44 -.08) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.5042 -.0529)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.32 -.0150) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.