All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer – November 30, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

11/30/11 (Commentary for Wednesday) Global markets exploded higher on the coordinated actions of the central banks. From a price pattern point of view, the ES has rallied in an EW a-b-c pattern from the October low with Wave A peaking on 10/28 and Wave B bottoming on the New Moon/solar eclipse on 11/25 – we now are rallying in a Wave C that should exceed the 10/28 highs before mid-December before the next phase of the bear market takes hold in early 2012. The DX and the US bond both took out their Monday lows clearly indicating a Wave C down on the respective hourly charts. We are looking to buy corrective pullbacks into Friday for a short, sharp rally into mid-December. The Wall Street Investment Survey clocked bullish/ bearish sentiment at 21%/57% on 11/25 which is supportive of a multi-week rally. This should be a volatile week with Chinese PMI and US ISM numbers coming out Thursday followed by US NFP on Friday.

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that should run late into the year. We think that the New Moon/solar eclipse on 11/25 bottomed a B-Wave and a sharp C-wave rally into mid-December should unfold.

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – This year is comparing well with 2006 – a parabolic blow off in the spring and then a stiff >20% decline into October. We're looking for an explosive rally to start in the PM sector by the 11/23-11/25 turn window – this should run into 12/21 or so.

   

• Stocks – Global markets exploded off the coordinated central bank action. Looking for a rally to take out the 10/28 highs before the next phase of the bear market. Will look to buy corrective declines into Friday for a rally into mid-December.
• Gold – Gold appears to be rallying in a Wave 3 of C off the 11/25 low - the HUI is on a buy signal. The 12-wk cycle low is due to bottom around X-mas so a peak in the PM sector is expected around mid-December.
• Sllver – A re-test of the 10/28 high's is due before a descent into the 12-wk cycle low around X-mas.
• Bonds – The bonds broke down in a Wave 3 of C on the hourly chart - looking for a C-Wave pull back into mid-December.
• Crude oil – Crude oil has been outperforming the SPX – tensions in the Middle East and a rolling supply shock from the 2008-2009 washout should give us another price spike above $100 going into the first half of 2012.
• Dollar index – The DX broke down in a Wave 3 of C on the hourly chart – looking for a low by mid-December. Our target of .90 appears to be farther off in time – perhaps in early 2012 as the next stage of the European debt crisis rears its head.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:     

Global markets fell hard into the New Moon/solar eclipse on 11/25 – looking for a bounce into the 11/29-11/30 turn window.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL LATE-OCTOBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.37 +.03) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.05 +.37) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.4450 +.06) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.48 +.03)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.28 +.023) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – November 29, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

11/29/11 (Commentary for Tuesday) Today appeared to be a high-range consolidation day for the ES and other markets – a reversal up tomorrow is expected. Both the bond and DX markets look that they are in a Wave C down on the hourly chart – we need to take out Monday's low in the DX to confirm this wave count. The Wall Street Investment Survey also clocked bullish/ bearish sentiment at 21%/57% which is supportive of a rally in the short term. Looking for a reversal up in tomorrow's turn window – this should be a volatile week with Chinese PMI and US ISM numbers coming out Thursday followed by US NFP on Friday. Back-to-back McClellan Oscillator readings of < -300 also suggest a multi-week bounce here but the DAX will have to lead the way.

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that should run late into the year. We think that the New Moon/solar eclipse on 11/25 bottomed a B-Wave and a sharp C-wave rally into mid-December should unfold.

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – This year is comparing well with 2006 – a parabolic blow off in the spring and then a stiff >20% decline into October. We're looking for an explosive rally to start in the PM sector by the 11/23-11/25 turn window – this should run into 12/21 or so.

   

• Stocks – Global markets rallied off the New Moon/ solar eclipse last Friday. A multi-week rally may have started Monday – today's high-range consolidation day adds to that case. A reversal up in tomorrow's turn window is likely.
• Gold – Gold appears to be rallying in a Wave 3 of C off the 11/25 low - the HUI is on a buy signal. The 12-wk cycle low is due to bottom around X-mas.
• Sllver – Silver should reverse higher in tomorrow's turn window – a re-test of the 10/28 high's is due before a descent into the 12-wk cycle low around X-mas.
• Bonds – The bonds made a B-Wave test of the 10/4 highs on the daily chart – looking for a C-Wave pull back into X-mas.
• Crude oil – Crude oil has been outperforming the SPX – tensions in the Middle East and a rolling supply shock from the 2008-2009 washout should give us another price spike above $100 going into the first half of 2012.
• Dollar index – The DX appears to be making a B-Wave test of the 10/4 highs – looking for a C–Wave down into the X-mas time frame. Our target of .90 appears to be farther off in time – perhaps in early 2012 as the next stage of the European debt crisis rears its head.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:     

Global markets fell hard into the New Moon/solar eclipse on 11/25 – looking for a bounce into the 11/29-11/30 turn window.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL LATE-OCTOBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.34 -.03) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.68 -.12) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.385 -.015) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.4557 -.0103)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.257 -.003) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – November 28, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

11/28/11 (Commentary for Monday) The market gave us an oversold bounce today but we think this rally has more to go. Both the bond and DX markets look that they are in in a Wave C down on the hourly chart. The Wall Street Investment Survey also clocked bullish/ bearish sentiment at 21%/57% which is supportive of a rally in the short term. Looking for a reversal in the 11/29-11/30 turn window – this should be a volatile week with Chinese PMI and US ISM numbers coming out Thursday followed by US NFP on Friday. Back-to-back McClellan Oscillator readings of < -300 also suggest a multi-week bounce here but the DAX will have to lead the way.

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that should run late into the year. Looking for a pull back into the 11/23-11/25 turn window before the next phase of the corrective rally.

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – This year is comparing well with 2006 – a parabolic blow off in the spring and then a stiff >20% decline into October. We're looking for an explosive rally to start in the PM sector by the 11/23-11/25 turn window – this should run into 12/21 or so.

   

• Stocks – Global markets rallied off the New Moon/ solar eclipse last Friday. A multi-week rally may have started today. A reversal in the 11/29-11/30 turn window is likely.
• Gold – Gold rallied as money came out of the DX - the HUI is on a buy signal.
• Sllver – Silver should reverse higher going into the 11/29-11/30 turn window – taking out $34 would be short-term bullish.
• Bonds – The bonds made a B-Wave test of the 10/4 highs on the daily chart – looking for a C-Wave pull back into X-mas.
• Crude oil – Crude oil has been outperforming the SPX – tensions in the Middle East and a rolling supply shock from the 2008-2009 washout should give us another price spike above $100 going into the first half of 2012.
• Dollar index – The DX appears to be making a B-Wave test of the 10/4 highs – looking for a C–Wave down into the X-mas time frame. Our target of .90 appears to be farther off in time – perhaps in early 2012 as the next stage of the European debt crisis rears its head.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:     

Global markets fell hard into the New Moon/solar eclipse on 11/25 – looking for a bounce into the 11/29-11/30 turn window.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL LATE-OCTOBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.3650 +.01) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.80 +.12) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.40 +.015) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.4660 +.0075)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.273 -.013) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly JDV Market Timer – November 27, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

11/27/11 (Commentary for Sunday) Last week gave us the weakest Thanksgiving week market action since 1942 but we suspect that the New Moon/solar eclipse on Friday gave us a short-term low. We should get at least an oversold bounce into the 11/29-11/30 turn window but maybe a multi-week stock rally if gold can close above 1704 – the DX and US long bond both look primed for a C-wave down on their daily charts into mid-December. Back-to-back McClellan Oscillator readings of < -300 also suggest a multi-week bounce here but the DAX will have to lead the way.

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that should run late into the year. Looking for a pull back into the 11/23-11/24 turn window before the next phase of the corrective rally.

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – This year is comparing well with 2006 – a parabolic blow off in the spring and then a stiff >20% decline into October. We're looking for an explosive rally to start in the PM sector by the 11/23-11/24 turn window – this should run into 12/21 or so.

   

• Stocks – The ES (and the DAX) looks primed for a reversal up if we get supportive news from Europe -the New Moon/solar ellipse should mark a short-term low. Looking for a X-mas rally to start tomorrow in Europe.
• Gold – Gold bottomed early Tuesday and reversed up in a 5-wave rally to CONFIRM Weekly Reversal Timing from Starkey – a retest of last week's lows should result in a rally that takes us above last week's high.
• Sllver – Silver should reverse higher going into the 11/29-11/30 turn window – taking out $34 would be short-term bullish.
• Bonds – The bonds made a B-Wave test of the 10/4 highs on the daily chart – looking for a C-Wave pull back into X-mas.
• Crude oil – Crude oil has been outperforming the SPX – tensions in the Middle East and a rolling supply shock from the 2008-2009 washout should give us another price spike above $100 going into the first half of 2012.
• Dollar index – The DX appears to be making a B-Wave test of the 10/4 highs – looking for a C–Wave down into the X-mas time frame. Our target of .90 appears to be farther off in time – perhaps in early 2012 as the next stage of the European debt crisis rears its head.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:     

Global markets fell hard into the New Moon/solar eclipse on 11/25 – looking for a bounce into the 11/29-11/30 turn window.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL LATE-OCTOBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.3550 -.035) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.68 -.08) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.3850 -.005) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.4585 -.0035)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.273 +.003) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – November 23, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

11/23/11 (Commentary for Wednesday) Bad fundamental news from Germany and China – a bad German bond auction and a weaker than expected PMI number in China – continued to pressure a very oversold market into the 11/23-11/24 turning point window. The McClellan Oscillator is at the extreme level of -325 and the TRIN5 (11.81) is testing the 10/4 highs. The technicals say that an upward reversal is imminent but it all depends on how the German DAX trades Thursday – a relief rally in spite of the bad auction could spark a global stock recovery. It is also possible that the market could continue its decline into Friday's New Moon/solar eclipse – tomorrow's trade in Europe will be key. The PM sector bottomed early Tuesday and rallied IMPULSIVELY to CONFIRM WEEKLY REVERSAL TIMING – but today we tested the lows again – a break above Wednesday's high will confirm a short-term low.

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that should run late into the year. Looking for a pull back into the 11/23-11/24 turn window before the next phase of the corrective rally.

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – This year is comparing well with 2006 – a parabolic blow off in the spring and then a stiff >20% decline into October. We're looking for an explosive rally to start in the PM sector by the 11/23-11/24 turn window – this should run into December/January. Testing highs in the HUI by early December is likely.

   

• Stocks – The ES looks primed for a reversal up if we get and supportive news from Europe. Looking for a X-mas rally to start tomorrow in Europe.
• Gold – Gold bottomed early Tuesday and reversed up in a 5-wave rally to CONFIRM Weekly Reversal Timing from Starkey – but today's retest of the Tuesday lows kept us cautious. We need to take out Tuesday's highs to confirm a low.
• Sllver – Silver also pulled back today – it needs to take out Tuesday's highs to mark a low.
• Bonds – The bonds rallied impulsively on the 5 min chart. Looking for a retest of the yearly highs soon.
• Crude oil – Crude oil bounced correctively on Friday and the hourly corrective pattern looks like it could sub-divide down further into 11/23.
• Dollar index – The DX did not reverse down today and appears to want to sub-divide higher. Our target of .90 appears to be farther off in time – perhaps in early 2012 as the next stage of the European debt crisis rears its head.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:     

We have a reversal window for 11/23-11/24 and are expecting an important low in the ES. The New Moon/solar eclipse on 11/25 argues for a large rally into Friday's close.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL LATE-OCTOBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.3550 -.035) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.76 -.01) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.3850 -.005) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.4620 -.0545)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.270 -.005) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – November 22, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

11/22/11 (Commentary for Tuesday) The ES is set to make an important bottom in the 11/23-11/24 turn window. If we take out Tuesday's low early Wednesday, we will be a buyer of QQQ calls for a sharp move into Friday's New Moon. This week has some of the most bullish seasonality of the year – we would be aggressive buyers of weakness in the morning. The ES and QQQ need another leg down to complete their corrective patterns. The DEBT reduction talks broke down and are giving us more downside volatility into the 11/23 turn window. The German position on liquidity creation appears to be softening. The catalyst for the next rally will probably be a reversal on the German position on QE which could happen this week. For the intermediate term, the ES looks bullish – frequent values of > +200 on the McClellan Oscillator argue for higher prices by December/January. A large bullish majority in the Wall Street Sentiment Survey (11/11) is a negative from a short-term contrary opinion point of view – bearish majorities have underscored the rally phases in this bear market. A market washout into November 23 may provide another trading opportunity to add to juniors but tax-loss selling will have to be dealt with. The PM sector bottomed early Tuesday and rallied IMPULSIVELY to CONFIRM WEEKLY REVERSAL TIMING to the upside – this gives us confidence that the ES will bottom tomorrow.

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that should run late into the year. Looking for a pull back into the 11/23-11/24 turn window before the next phase of the corrective rally.

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – This year is comparing well with 2006 – a parabolic blow off in the spring and then a stiff >20% decline into October. We're looking for an explosive rally to start in the PM sector by the 11/23-11/24 turn window – this should run into December/January. Testing highs in the HUI by early December is likely.

   

• Stocks – The ES needs one more leg down below the Tuesday lows to finish a corrective pattern. Looking for a X-mas rally to start no later than Wednesday.
• Gold – Gold bottomed early Tuesday and reversed up in a 5-wave rally to CONFIRM Weekly Reversal Timing from Starkey – buy dips in gold stocks for a strong run into Friday's New Moon.
• Sllver – Silver reversed up strong CONFIRMING Weekly Reversal Timing to the upside – buy dips.
• Bonds – The bonds rallied impulsively on the 5 min chart. Looking for a retest of the yearly highs soon.
• Crude oil – Crude oil bounced correctively on Friday and the hourly corrective pattern looks like it could sub-divide down further into 11/23.
• Dollar index – The DX is close to finishing an EW a-b-c correction to the upside on the hourly – looking for the DX to take out 78.89 and reverse down by 11/23. Our target of .90 appears to be farther off in time – perhaps in early 2012 as the next stage of the European debt crisis rears its head.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:     

We have a reversal window for 11/23-11/24 and are expecting an important low in the ES. The New Moon on 11/25 argues for a large rally into Friday's close.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL LATE-OCTOBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.40 -.00) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.77 -.09) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.40 -.02) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.5165 +.0298)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.2750 +.01) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – November 21, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

11/21/11 (Commentary for Monday) The Nasdaq held the 50% retracement off the 10/28 high and it appears we are close to a low.  The ES is declining into the 11/23 turn window – but its pattern may have more downside.  The DEBT reduction talks are breaking down and could give us more downside volatility into the 11/23 deadline. The German position on liquidity creation appears to be softening. The catalyst for the next rally will probably be a reversal on the German position on QE which could happen this week. For the intermediate term, the ES looks bullish – frequent values of > +200 on the McClellan Oscillator argue for higher prices by December/January.  A large bullish majority in the Wall Street Sentiment Survey (10/28) is a negative from a short-term contrary opinion point of view – bearish majorities have underscored the rally phases in this bear market.  The CDNX (a proxy for mining juniors) appears to need another leg down to finish a large corrective pattern – a market washout into November 23 may provide another trading opportunity to add to juniors but tax-loss selling will have to be dealt with. The COT numbers on gold and silver are bullish here – the HUI and GDXJ may be testing highs by mid- December based on compelling historical patterns with 2006. Economic data from China including year-over-year electricity consumption, MET coal imports and trade data with Taiwan all suggest a harder landing in China than anticipated. The breakdown in copper below August lows is a bearish signal for the entire commodities board. Our fundamental view is that China is experiencing a "hard landing" which combined with the European debt crisis should give us another leg down in the global bear market after a rally runs its course into December/January. The Dollar Index appears to be finishing an EW a-b-c rally on the hourly chart.

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that should run late into the year. Looking for a pull back into the 11/23-11/24 turn window before the next phase of the corrective rally.

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – This year is comparing well with 2006 – a parabolic blow off in the spring and then a stiff >20% decline into October. We're looking for an explosive rally to start in the PM sector by the 11/23-11/24 turn window – this should run into December/January. Testing highs in the HUI by early December is likely.

   

• Stocks – The ES needs one more leg down below the Tuesday lows to finish a corrective pattern. Looking for a X-mas rally to start no later than Wednesday.
• Gold – Gold bottomed early Tuesday and reversed up in a 5-wave rally to CONFIRM Weekly Reversal Timing from Starkey – buy dips in gold stocks for a strong run into Friday's New Moon.
• Sllver – Silver reversed up strong CONFIRMING Weekly Reversal Timing to the upside – buy dips.
• Bonds – The bonds rallied impulsively on the 5 min chart. Looking for a retest of the yearly highs soon.
• Crude oil – Crude oil bounced correctively on Friday and the hourly corrective pattern looks like it could sub-divide down further into 11/23.
• Dollar index – The DX is close to finishing an EW a-b-c correction to the upside on the hourly – looking for the DX to take out 78.89 and reverse down by 11/23. Our target of .90 appears to be farther off in time – perhaps in early 2012 as the next stage of the European debt crisis rears its head.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:

We have a reversal window for 11/23-11/24 and are expecting an important low in the ES. The New Moon on 11/25 argues for a large rally into Friday's close.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL LATE-OCTOBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.40 -.00) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.85 -.08) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.40 -.02) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.4867 -.0445)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.2650 -.0250) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly JDV Market Timer – November 20, 2011

   

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

11/20/11 (Commentary for Sunday) The Nasdaq and SPX finished expiration Friday weaker than anticipated, so it appears that the 11/23-11/24 turn window may be the low for the corrective pattern – taking out last week's low on the ES and reversing up impulsively on the 5 min chart should confirm a low. The DEBT reduction talks are breaking down and could give us some downside volatility into the 11/23 deadline. We posted another Large Divergent Rally in the Option Premium Ratio and that argues for an important low in the next couple of days. The market panicked today on renewed European fears but the German position on liquidity creation appears to be softening. The catalyst for the next rally will probably be a reversal on the German position on QE which could happen by early next week. Many stock indices should test their Full Moon lows by 11/23 – this should set up a great trading opportunity to go long for a fierce rally. For the intermediate term, the ES looks bullish – frequent values of > +200 on the McClellan Oscillator argue for higher prices by December/January. A large bullish majority in the Wall Street Sentiment Survey (10/28) is a negative from a short-term contrary opinion point of view – bearish majorities have underscored the rally phases in this bear market. The CDNX (a proxy for mining juniors) appears to need another leg down to finish a large corrective pattern – a market washout into November 21 may provide another trading opportunity to add to juniors but tax-loss selling will have to be dealt with. The COT numbers on gold and silver are bullish here – the HUI and GDXJ may be testing highs by mid- December based on compelling historical patterns with 2006. Economic data from China including year-over-year electricity consumption, MET coal imports and trade data with Taiwan all suggest a harder landing in China than anticipated. The breakdown in copper below August lows is a bearish signal for the entire commodities board. Our fundamental view is that China is experiencing a "hard landing" which combined with the European debt crisis should give us another leg down in the global bear market after a rally runs its course into December/January. The Dollar Index appears to be finishing an EW a- b-c to the upside. A rally to .90 resistance on the DX weekly chart by spring is likely.

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that should run late into the year. Looking for a pull back into the 11/23-11/24 turn window before the next phase of the corrective rally.

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – This year is comparing well with 2006 – a parabolic blow off in the spring and then a stiff >20% decline into October. We're looking for an explosive rally to start in the PM sector by the 11/23-11/24 turn window – this should run into December/January. Testing highs in the HUI by early December is likely.

   

• Stocks – The ES may decline into 11/23 before a reversal up – Wednesday is the deadline for the DEBT committee and could give us some downside volatility. We're placing under the market bids on our favorite stocks: IBM, QCOM, EOG, SLB and COP. Some were hit today. Looking for a X-mas rally to start no later than Tuesday.
• Gold – Gold declined impulsively – it still appears that we need a 5^th wave down into the 11/22-11/23 turn window on the hourly hart. This week has Weekly Reversal Timing from Starkey and we're expecting a reversal up around the 11/22 gold option expiration on the COMEX.
• Sllver – Silver looks like it needs to take out last week's low to finish a corrective pattern on the hourly chart. Looking for a reversal up by 11/23.
• Bonds – The bonds rallied impulsively on the 5 min chart. Looking for a retest of the yearly highs soon.
• Crude oil – Crude oil bounced correctively on Friday and the hourly corrective pattern looks like it could sub-divide down further into 11/23.
• Dollar index – The DX is close to finishing an EW a-b-c correction to the upside on the hourly – looking for the DX to take out 78.89 by 11/23 and then reverse down. Our target of .90 appears to be farther off in time – perhaps in early 2012 as the next stage of the European debt crisis rears its head.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:

We have a reversal window for 11/23-11/24 and are expecting an important low in the ES. The New Moon on 11/25 argues for a large rally into Friday's close.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL LATE-OCTOBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.40 -.00) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.93 -.14) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.42 -.005) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.5312 +.0091)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.29 +.002) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – November 17, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

11/17/11 (Commentary for Friday) The SPX and Nasdaq gave us a Negative Volume Reversal Day Wednesday and the market followed through to the downside today – we're heading for a low in the 11/18-11/21 turn window. We posted a Large Divergent Rally in the Option Premium Ratio and that argues for early strength tomorrow in the SPX. The market panicked today on renewed European fears but the German position on liquidity creation appears to be softening. The catalyst for the next rally will probably be a reversal on the German position on QE which could happen by early next week. Many stock indices should test their Full Moon lows by 11/21 – this should set up a great trading opportunity to go long for a fierce rally. For the intermediate term, the ES looks bullish – frequent values of > +200 on the McClellan Oscillator argue for higher prices by December/January. A large bullish majority in the Wall Street Sentiment Survey (10/28) is a negative from a short-term contrary opinion point of view – bearish majorities have underscored the rally phases in this bear market. The CDNX (a proxy for mining juniors) appears to need another leg down to finish a large corrective pattern – a market washout into November 21 may provide another trading opportunity to add to juniors but tax-loss selling will have to be dealt with. The COT numbers on gold and silver are bullish here – the HUI and GDXJ may be testing highs by mid- December based on compelling historical patterns with 2006. Economic data from China including year-over-year electricity consumption, MET coal imports and trade data with Taiwan all suggest a harder landing in China than anticipated. The breakdown in copper below August lows is a bearish signal for the entire commodities board. Our fundamental view is that China is experiencing a "hard landing" which combined with the European debt crisis should give us another leg down in the global bear market after a rally runs its course into December/January. The Dollar Index appears to be breaking out to the upside. A rally to .90 resistance on the DX weekly chart by spring is likely.

   

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that should run late into the year. Looking for a pull back into the 11/18-11/21 turn window before the next phase of the corrective rally.

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – This year is comparing well with 2006 – a parabolic blow off in the spring and then a stiff >20% decline into October. We're looking for an explosive rally to start in the PM sector by the 11/18-11/21 turn window – this should run into December/January. Testing highs in the HUI by early December is likely.

   

• Stocks – Stocks declined hard into the 11/18-11/21 turn window. We're placing under the market bids on our favorite stocks: IBM, QCOM, EOG, SLB and COP. Some were hit today. Looking for a X-mas rally to start no later than Tuesday.
• Gold – Gold declined impulsively – it still appears that we need a 5^th wave down into the 11/18-11/21 turn window. Next week has Weekly Reversal Timing from Starkey and we're expecting a reversal up by the 11/22 gold option expiration on the COMEX.
• Sllver – Silver took out the Full Moon low but the late bounce looks like a 4^th wave – we're due a 5^th wave down by Monday into the turn window.
• Bonds – The bonds rallied impulsively on the 5 min chart. Looking for a retest of the yearly highs soon.
• Crude oil – Crude oil declined hard but the pattern looked corrective – the spread between WTI and Brent crude benchmarks is beginning to close. Another rally above $100 looks imminent.
• Dollar index – The DX is doing a high range consolidation – looking for more upside soon. However, our target of .90 appears to be farther off in time – perhaps in early 2012 as the next stage of the European debt crisis rears its head.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:

We have a reversal window for 11/14 and are expecting a weekly high for the ES. An important turn window on 11/21 should give us an important intermediate low for the ES and PMs.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL LATE-OCTOBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.40 -.02) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.07 -.02) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.4250 -.00) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.5221 -.0229)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.2880 -.006) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – November 16, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

11/16/11 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX and Nasdaq gave us a Negative Volume Reversal Day today and turned the market down – we're heading for a low around 11/21. The SPX and NDX are tracing out a very bullish consolidation pattern on the hourly charts. The catalyst for the next rally will probably be a reversal on the German position on QE which could happen by early next week. Many stock indices should test their Full Moon lows by 11/21 – this should set up a great trading opportunity to go long for a fierce rally. For the intermediate term, the ES looks bullish – frequent values of > +200 on the McClellan Oscillator argue for higher prices by December/January. A large bullish majority in the Wall Street Sentiment Survey (10/28) is a negative from a short-term contrary opinion point of view – bearish majorities have underscored the rally phases in this bear market. The CDNX (a proxy for mining juniors) appears to need another leg down to finish a large corrective pattern – a market washout into November 21 may provide another trading opportunity to add to juniors but tax-loss selling will have to be dealt with. The COT numbers on gold and silver are bullish here – the HUI and GDXJ may be testing highs by mid- December based on compelling historical patterns with 2006. Economic data from China including year-over-year electricity consumption, MET coal imports and trade data with Taiwan all suggest a harder landing in China than anticipated. The breakdown in copper below August lows is a bearish signal for the entire commodities board. Our fundamental view is that China is experiencing a "hard landing" which combined with the European debt crisis should give us another leg down in the global bear market after a rally runs its course into December/January. The Dollar Index appears to be breaking out to the upside. A rally to .90 resistance on the DX weekly chart by spring is likely.

   

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that should run late into the year. Looking for a pull back into the 11/18-11/21 turn window before the next phase of the corrective rally.

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – This year is comparing well with 2006 – a parabolic blow off in the spring and then a stiff >20% decline into October. We're looking for an explosive rally to start in the PM sector by the 11/18-11/21 turn window – this should run into December/January. Testing highs in the HUI by early December is likely.

   

• Stocks – We're keying on a pull back into the 11/21 turn window that should launch a X-mas rally. We're placing under the market bids on our favorite stocks: IBM, QCOM, EOG, SLB and COP.
• Gold – Gold is tracing out a sideways consolidation into the 11/21 turn window. Focusing on placing stink bids in on senior gold stock calls. Next week has Weekly Reversal Timing from Starkey and we're expecting a reversal up.
• Sllver – Silver tested Friday's high – looking for a leg down to test the Full Moon low by 11/21.
• Bonds – The bonds may have finished their correction on the hourly chat – we saw an EW 5-wave decline on the 5 min chart. Looking for a retest of the yearly highs soon.
• Crude oil – Crude oil powered up in a powerful 5-wave move to close over $100 – the spread between WTI and Brent crude benchmarks should begin to close.
• Dollar index – The DX is doing a high range consolidation – looking for more upside soon. However, our target of .90 appears to be farther off in time – perhaps in early 2012 as the next stage of the European debt crisis rears its head.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:

We have a reversal window for 11/14 and are expecting a weekly high for the ES. An important turn window on 11/21 should give us an important intermediate low for the ES and PMs.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL LATE-OCTOBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.42 -.01) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.09 +.05) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.4250 -.025) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.5450 +.0150)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.2940 -.006) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.