All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer – October 17, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

10/17/11 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX once again failed at 1230 resistance and peaked in the 10/17 turn window – we don't expect the pullback to exceed 1160 but we'll see how the correction pattern evolves. Disappointing reports from IBM and Wells Fargo also sets the market up for further losses Tuesday. The wave of bearishness being measured in several sentiment indicators argues for a resumption of a vigorous rally after a brief pull back this week. Gold and silver also peaked in today's turn window and is pulling back. The underperformance of the HUI compared to the OIH and XOI off the 10/4 low argues for a retest of PM lows by late October/early November. The CDNX (a proxy for mining juniors) appears to need another leg down to finish a large corrective pattern – a market washout into November may provide another trading opportunity to add to juniors but tax-loss selling will have to be dealt with. The COT numbers on gold and silver are bullish here – the HUI and GDXJ may be at new highs by early December based on compelling historical patterns with 2006. A meltdown in copper and other base metals suggests that this market decline could have some legs beyond an intermediate-term rally into October – note that the ECRI group just issued a RECESSION CALL - the second phase of the bear market may not end until January/February. Economic data from China including year-over-year electricity consumption, MET coal imports and trade data with Taiwan all suggest a harder landing in China than anticipated. The breakdown in copper below August lows is a bearish signal for the entire commodities board. Our fundamental view is that China is experiencing a "hard landing" which combined with the European debt crisis should give us another leg down in the global bear market. Our markets are being driven by news from Europe and their attempt to patch over the string of sovereign bankruptcies appearing there – the fact that the USA is also in recession only adds to the selling pressure. The Dollar Index bottomed at .7670 and started its next phase higher. A rally to .90 resistance on the DX weekly chart by January is likely.

   

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that could run into late October. A pull back this week is likely as the DX finds support at slightly lower levels.

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – This year is comparing well with 2006 – a parabolic blow off in the spring and then a stiff >20% decline into October. We're looking for an explosive rally to start in the PM sector by early November – this should run into early December. New Highs in the HUI are likely by early December.

   

• Stocks –The ES peaked and reversed down in today's turn window but a "wall of worry" underscored by bearish option sentiment indicators should minimize any pull back to around 1160.
• Gold – Gold peaked in today's turn window and should test the 10/4 low. The COT numbers look very bullish. Based on historical patterns, this market feels like 2006 which also had a parabolic blow off in the spring and a stiff decline into October.
• Silver – Silver peaked and started its correction today – a test of the 10/4 lows is underway.
• Bonds – Bonds started a rally today – should make new highs as the DX tests .90 in the coming months.
• Crude oil – Crude oil peaked in the 10/17 and is pulling back in lock step with the SPX.
• Dollar index – The DX bottomed at .7670 – but the 5 min chart looks like another low is needed early this week. We're looking for a rally to .90 going into late January/February but that timing is in question.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:

The only timing indication that we have this week is a Fibonacci 13-day step out from the important 10/4 low to 10/17. Global markets may see a pullback on 10/17 to correct the fierce rally off early October lows.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL LATE-OCTOBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.455 +.00) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.99 -.26) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.40 -.00) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.4710 -.092)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.2990 +.014) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly JDV Market Timer – October 16, 20011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

10/16/11 (Commentary for Sunday) In hindsight, a large corrective rally started on 10/4 which appears to be the low of the first phase of a global bear market. In fact, the wave of bearishness being measured in several sentiment indicators argues for a resumption of a vigorous rally after a brief pull back this week. The only clear indication here is that the DX is close to making a short-term low – this allows for more rally in gold and silver into early this week. The underperformance of the HUI compared to the OIH and XOI off the 10/4 low argues for a retest of lows by late October/early November. The CDNX (a proxy for mining juniors) appears to need another leg down to finish a large corrective pattern – a market washout into November may provide another trading opportunity to add to juniors but tax-loss selling will have to be delt with. The COT numbers on gold and silver are bullish here – the HUI and GDXJ may be at new highs by early December based on compelling historical patterns with 2006. A meltdown in copper and other base metals suggests that this market decline could have some legs beyond an intermediate-term rally into October – note that the ECRI group just issued a RECESSION CALL - the second phase of the bear market may not end until January/February. Economic data from China including year-over-year electricity consumption, MET coal imports and trade data with Taiwan all suggest a harder landing in China than anticipated. The breakdown in copper below August lows is a bearish signal for the entire commodities board. Our fundamental view is that China is experiencing a "hard landing" which combined with the European debt crisis should give us another leg down in the global bear market. Our markets are being driven by news from Europe and their attempt to patch over the string of sovereign bankruptcies appearing there – the fact that the USA is also in recession only adds to the selling pressure. The Dollar Index still looks like lower lows are needed to make a short-term low in the low .76s. A rally to .90 resistance on the DX weekly chart by January is likely.

   

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that could run into late October. A pull back this week is likely as the DX finds support at slightly lower levels.

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – This year is comparing well with 2006 – a parabolic blow off in the spring and then a stiff >20% decline into October. We're looking for an explosive rally to start in the PM sector by early November – this should run into early December. New Highs in the HUI are likely by early December.

   

• Stocks –A move below 1080 on the ES may confirm a short-term correction into the 10/17 turn window but a "wall of worry" underscored by bearish option sentiment indicators should minimize any pull back.
• Gold – The COT numbers look very bullish. Gold may bounce early this week as the DX probes a lower target but the rally off of 9/26 lacks vigor. Based on historical patterns, this market feels like 2006 which also had a parabolic blow off in the spring and a stiff decline into October. Even if the 10/4 lows fail to hold into month's end, we expect a roaring PM sector starting in the next week or so.
• Silver – Silver should bounce more on Monday if the DX has a lower target.
• Bonds – Bonds look close to a bottom – a bounce is likely this week.
• Crude oil – Crude oil has rallied in step with global markets – a pull back is likely this week if the DX probes lower targets..
• Dollar index – The DX is trying to put in a short-term bottom in the .76-.77 area – but the 5 min chart looks like another low is needed early this week. We're looking for a rally to .90 going into late October/November but that timing is in question.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:

The only timing indication that we have this week is a Fibonacci 13-day step out from the important 10/4 low to 10/17. Global markets may see a pullback on 10/17 to correct the fierce rally off early October lows.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL LATE-OCTOBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.4750 +.06) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.25 +.25) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.40 -.00) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.4802 +.0072)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.2850 +.005) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – October 13, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

10/13/11 (Commentary for Thursday) The DAX appears to be leading global markets down in a correction of the fierce rally off the 10/4 low but bearish sentiment in the form of a very high 5-day MA of the CBOE put/call ratio (> 5.00) should minimize the price retracement in the ES to around 1160 or so into the 10/15-10/17 turn window. In fact, the wave of bearishness being measured in several sentiment indicators argues for a resumption of a vigorous rally by next week. Trading below ES=1180 will confirm that the correction into 10/15-10/17 has started. We are still on the (OPR/MO) SPX sell signal from 10/11 – a Large Divergent Decline in the Option Premium Ratio and a small change in the McClellan Oscillator – this argues for a decline going into the weekend. However, we should note that the OEX traced out an impulsive EW 5-wave rally off the 10/4 low into the high today – we believe that we have seen the start of a large corrective rally that should run into late October. A three-wave correction into 10/17 should set up an important trading low for stocks and gold. The CDNX (a proxy for mining juniors) appears to need another leg down to finish a large corrective pattern – a market washout into 10/17 may provide another trading opportunity to add to juniors. We are looking for the start of a strong multi-month rally in the PM sector by 10/17. The COT numbers on gold and silver are bullish here – the HUI and GDXJ may be at new highs by early December based on compelling historical patterns with 2006. A meltdown in copper and other base metals suggests that this market decline could have some legs beyond an intermediate-term rally into October – note that the ECRI group just issued a RECESSION CALL. Economic data from China including year-over-year electricity consumption, MET coal imports and trade data with Taiwan all suggest a harder landing in China than anticipated. The breakdown in copper below August lows is a bearish signal for the entire commodities board. Our fundamental view is that China is experiencing a "hard landing" which combined with the European debt crisis should give us another leg down in the global bear market. Our markets are being driven by news from Europe and their attempt to patch over the string of sovereign bankruptcies appearing there – the fact that the USA is also in recession only adds to the selling pressure. The Dollar Index pulled back to the .76-.77 area and is attempting to bounce. A rally to .90 resistance on the DX weekly chart by the end of October/early November is likely.

   

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The OEX tested the 8/8 low in an EW 5^th wave down on the turning point day 10/04. The OEX then rallied in an EW 5-wave impulse pattern going into the Full Moon on 10/11 – looking for just a 3-wave pull back going into 10/15-10/17 before a furious rally into late October. 

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) –This year is comparing well with 2006 – a parabolic blow off in the spring and then a stiff >20% decline into October. We're looking for an explosive rally to start in the PM sector by 10/15 or so – this should run into early December. New Highs in the HUI are likely by early December.

   

• Stocks –A move below 1080 on the ES may confirm a short-term correction into the 10/15-10/17 turn window but a "wall of worry" underscored by bearish option sentiment indicators should minimize any pull back.
• Gold – The COT numbers look very bullish. A decline in gold into 10/17 may lead to a sharp reversal higher. Based on historical patterns, this market feels like 2006 which also had a parabolic blow off in the spring and a stiff decline into October. Even if the 10/4 lows fail to hold in the next week, we expect a roaring PM sector starting in the next week or so.
• Silver – A pull back into 10/17 should be aggressively bought.
• Bonds – Bonds appear to have FINISHED an EW a-b-c correction on the hourly chart – a bounce here is likely.
• Crude oil – Crude declined today after testing Tuesday's high – looking for a sharp pull back into the 10/15-10/17 turn window.
• Dollar index – The DX is trying to put in a short-term bottom in the .76-.77 area. We're looking for a rally to .90 going into late October/November.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:

The Full Moon Timing Window on 10/11 is a key turn window this week. The last New Moon on 9/27 gave us an important short-term top. If the PMs and SPX rally into 10/11, look for a reversal down.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL LATE-OCTOBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.4150 -.025) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.00 +.02) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.40 -.005) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.4730 -.0340)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.28 -.001) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – October 12, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

10/12/11 (Commentary for Wednesday) The push to higher highs on the SPX today amidst waning volume looked exhaustive. The news from China late in the session of higher copper inventories at year end 2010 led to the late selloff. Trading below ES=1180 will confirm that the correction into 10/15-10/17 has started. We are still on the (OPR/MO) SPX sell signal from 10/11 – a Large Divergent Decline in the Option Premium Ratio and a small change in the McClellan Oscillator – this argues for a decline going into the weekend. However, we should note that the OEX traced out an impulsive EW 5-wave rally off the 10/4 low into the high today – we believe that we have seen the start of a large corrective rally that should run into late October. A three-wave correction into 10/15 should set up an important trading low for stocks and gold. The CDNX (a proxy for mining juniors) appears to need another leg down to finish a large corrective pattern – a market washout into 10/15 may provide another trading opportunity to add to juniors. We are looking for the start of a strong multi-month rally in the PM sector by 10/15. The COT numbers on gold and silver are bullish here – the HUI and GDXJ may be at new highs by early December based on compelling historical patterns with 2006. A meltdown in copper and other base metals suggests that this market decline could have some legs beyond an intermediate-term rally into October – note that the ECRI group just issued a RECESSION CALL. Economic data from China including year-over-year electricity consumption, MET coal imports and trade data with Taiwan all suggest a harder landing in China than anticipated. The breakdown in copper below August lows is a bearish signal for the entire commodities board. Our fundamental view is that China is experiencing a "hard landing" which combined with the European debt crisis should give us another leg down in the global bear market. Our markets are being driven by news from Europe and their attempt to patch over the string of sovereign bankruptcies appearing there – the fact that the USA is also in recession only adds to the selling pressure. The Dollar Index is pulling back to the .76-.77 area. A rally to .90 resistance on the DX weekly chart by the end of October/early November is likely.

   

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The OEX tested the 8/8 low in an EW 5^th wave down on the turning point day 10/04. The OEX then rallied in an EW 5-wave impulse pattern going into the Full Moon on 10/11 – looking for just a 3-wave pull back going into 10/15-10/17 before a furious rally into late October. 

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) –This year is comparing well with 2006 – a parabolic blow off in the spring and then a stiff >20% decline into October. We're looking for an explosive rally to start in the PM sector by 10/15 or so – this should run into early December. New Highs in the HUI are likely by early December.

   

• Stocks – The SPX took out Tuesday's highs amidst waning volume and internals. The announcement from China that restated China's copper inventories at the end of 2010 deflated copper and other materials stocks late in the day. A move below 1080 on the ES may confirm a short-term correction into the 10/15-10/17 turn window.
• Gold – The Full Moon pulled gold up into 10/11. Gold bottomed the 12-wk cycle low on 9/26 and reversed up but the rally pattern on the hourly chart looks corrective, so at least a retest of the 9/26 lows is expected. The COT numbers look very bullish. A decline in gold into 10/15 may lead to a sharp reversal higher. Based on historical patterns, this market feels like 2006 which also had a parabolic blow off in the spring and a stiff decline into October. Even if the 10/4 lows fail to hold in the next week, we expect a roaring PM sector starting in the next week or so.
• Silver – Silver bottomed the 12-wk cycle low 9/27 and reversed up to confirm Weekly Reversal Timing last week – however, the rally from 9/26 looks CORRECTIVE on the hourly – so at least a retest of the 9/26 lows is expected.
• Bonds – Bonds appear to have FINISHED an EW a-b-c correction on the hourly chart – a bounce here is likely.
• Crude oil – Crude declined today after testing Tuesday's high – looking for a shpull back into the 10/15-10/17 turn window.
• Dollar index – The DX is trying to put in a short-term bottom in the .76-.77 area. We're looking for a rally to .90 going into late October/November.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:

The Full Moon Timing Window on 10/11 is a key turn window this week. The last New Moon on 9/27 gave us an important short-term top. If the PMs and SPX rally into 10/11, look for a reversal down.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL LATE-OCTOBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.44 -.01) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.97 +.10) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.405 -.00) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.5070 +.015)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.281 +.011) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – October 11, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

10/11/11 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX completed a rally pattern from the 10/4 low on the Full Moon. We think that we saw the high for the week today and should see a correction of the rally from 10/04 into 10/15-10/17. We got an (OPR/MO) sell signal on the SPX today – a Large Divergent Decline in the Option Premium Ratio and a small change in the McClellan Oscillator argues for a large decline tomorrow in the SPX going into the weekend. However, we should note that the OEX traced out an impulsive EW 5-wave rally off the 10/4 low into the high today – we believe that we have seen the start of a large correction that should run into late October. The huge swing on the TRIN5 from >14 on 10/4 to < 3.25 on 10/10 was unprecedented and called for a short-term top today. A three-wave correction into 10/15 should set up an important trading low for stocks and gold. The CDNX (a proxy for mining juniors) appears to need another leg down to finish a large corrective pattern – a market washout into 10/15 may provide another trading opportunity to add to juniors. We are looking for the start of a strong multi-month rally in the PM sector by 10/15. The COT numbers on gold and silver are bullish here – the HUI and GDXJ may be at new highs by early December based on compelling historical patterns with 2006. A meltdown in copper and other base metals suggests that this market decline could have some legs beyond an intermediate-term rally into October – note that the ECRI group just issued a RECESSION CALL. Economic data from China including year-over-year electricity consumption, MET coal imports and trade data with Taiwan all suggest a harder landing in China than anticipated. The breakdown in copper below August lows is a bearish signal for the entire commodities board. Our fundamental view is that China is experiencing a "hard landing" which combined with the European debt crisis should give us another leg down in the global bear market. Our markets are being driven by news from Europe and their attempt to patch over the string of sovereign bankruptcies appearing there – the fact that the USA is also in recession only adds to the selling pressure. The Dollar Index pulled back to the .76-.77 area. A rally to .90 resistance on the DX weekly chart by the end of October/early November is likely.

   

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. The OEX tested the 8/8 low in an EW 5^th wave down on the turning point day 10/04. The OEX then rallied in an EW 5-wave impulse pattern going into the Full Moon on 10/11 – looking for just a 3-wave pull back going into the weekend before a furious rally into late October. 

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold's summer break out to new highs in USD terms has very bullish ramifications. This year is comparing well with 2006 – a parabolic blow off in the spring and then a stiff >20% decline into October. We're looking for an explosive rally to start in the PM sector by 10/15 or so – this should run into early December. Gold did bottom on 9/26 and reversed up to confirm Weekly Reversal Timing – but a pullback this week into the 10/15-10/17 turn window should set up a great long opportunity.

   

• Stocks – The SPX may have topped for the week on the Full Moon today. A hugely oversold TRIN5 (3.23) argued for a top today and we also got an (OPR/MO) sell signal – a Large Divergent Decline in the Option Premium Ratio and a small change in the McClellan Oscillator (-1.16) argue for a decline into the 10/15-10/17 turn window.
• Gold – The Full Moon pulled gold up into 10/11. Gold bottomed the 12-wk cycle low on 9/26 and reversed up but the rally pattern on the hourly chart looks corrective, so at least a retest of the 9/26 lows is expected. The COT numbers look very bullish. A decline in gold into 10/15 may lead to a sharp reversal higher. Based on historical patterns, this market feels like 2006 which also had a parabolic blow off in the spring and a stiff decline into October. Even if the 10/4 lows fail to hold in the next week, we expect a roaring PM sector starting in the next week or so.
• Silver – Silver bottomed the 12-wk cycle low 9/27 and reversed up to confirm Weekly Reversal Timing last week – however, the rally from 9/26 looks CORRECTIVE on the hourly – so at least a retest of the 9/26 lows is expected.
• Bonds – Bonds appear to have FINISHED an EW a-b-c correction on the hourly chart – another test of the highs is likely. The bonds may test the highs by 10/15.
• Crude oil – Crude rallied hard with the SPX today – looking for a short-term high on 10/11.
• Dollar index – The DX is trying to put in a short-term bottom in the .76-.77 area. We're looking for a rally to .90 going into late October/November.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:

The Full Moon Timing Window on 10/11 is a key turn window this week. The last New Moon on 9/27 gave us an important short-term top. If the PMs and SPX rally into 10/11, look for a reversal down.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL LATE-OCTOBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.45 +.0450) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.87 +.02) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.39 -.01) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.49 -.0070)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.2700 +.005) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – October 10, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

10/10/11 (Commentary for Monday) Gold and the SPX were pulled up into the Full Moon Timing Window (10/11) instead of down. We're looking for the high of the week Tuesday on the Full Moon. The huge swing on the TRIN5 from >14 on 10/4 to < 3.25 on 10/10 is unprecedented and is calling for a short-term top tomorrow. A washout into 10/15 could set up an important trading low for stocks and gold. The CDNX (a proxy for mining juniors) appears to need another leg down to finish a large corrective pattern – a market washout into 10/15 may provide another trading opportunity to add to juniors. We are looking for the start of a strong multi-month rally in the PM sector by 10/15. The COT numbers on gold and silver are bullish here – the HUI and GDXJ may be at new highs by early December based on compelling historical patterns with 2006. A meltdown in copper and other base metals suggests that this market decline could have some legs beyond an intermediate-term rally into October – note that the ECRI group just issued a RECESSION CALL. Economic data from China including year-over-year electricity consumption, MET coal imports and trade data with Taiwan all suggest a harder landing in China than anticipated. The breakdown in copper below August lows is a bearish signal for the entire commodities board. Our fundamental view is that China is experiencing a "hard landing" which combined with the European debt crisis should give us another leg down in the global bear market. Our markets are being driven by news from Europe and their attempt to patch over the string of sovereign bankruptcies appearing there – the fact that the USA is also in recession only adds to the selling pressure. The Dollar Index is pulling back to the .76 area - we added to our long UUP call position. A rally to .90 resistance on the DX weekly chart by the end of October/early November is likely.

   

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. The SPX tested the 8/8 low in an EW 5^th wave down on the turning point 10/04. However, the rally off the 10/4 looks corrective. Looking for at least a retest of the 10/4 lows by November – support at SPX=1020 may come into play. 

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold's summer break out to new highs in USD terms has very bullish ramifications. This year is comparing well with 2006 – a parabolic blow off in the spring and then a stiff >20% decline into October. We're looking for an explosive rally to start in the PM sector by 10/15 or so – this should run into early December. Gold did bottom on 9/26 and reversed up to confirm Weekly Reversal Timing – but a pullback this week into the Full Moon may give us another buying opportunity.

   

• Stocks – The SPX is being pulled up into the Full Moon Timing Window on 10/11 and that may be the high for the week. A hugely oversold TRIN5 = 3.23 argues for a top tomorrow and the EW rally pattern allows for one more rally high.
• Gold – The Full Moon is pulling gold up into 10/11. Gold bottomed the 12-wk cycle low on 9/26 and reversed up but the rally pattern on the hourly chart looks corrective, so at least a retest of the 9/26 lows is expected. The COT numbers look very bullish. A decline in gold into 10/15 may lead to a sharp reversal higher. Based on historical patterns, this market feels like 2006 which also had a parabolic blow off in the spring and a stiff decline into October. Even if the 10/4 lows fail to hold in the next week, we expect a roaring PM sector starting in the next week or so.
• Silver – Silver bottomed the 12-wk cycle low 9/27 and reversed up to confirm Weekly Reversal Timing last week – however, the rally from 9/26 looks CORRECTIVE on the hourly – so at least a retest of the 9/26 lows is expected.
• Bonds – Bonds appear to have FINISHED an EW a-b-c correction on the hourly chart – another test of the highs is likely. The bonds may test the highs by 10/15.
• Crude oil – Crude rallied hard with the SPX today – looking for a short-term high on 10/11.
• Dollar index – The DX is trying to put in a short-term bottom below .77. We're looking for a rally to .90 going into late October/November.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:

The Full Moon Timing Window on 10/11 is a key turn window this week. The last New Moon on 9/27 gave us an important short-term top. If the PMs and SPX rally into 10/11, look for a reversal down.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL LATE-OCTOBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.4050 -.0350) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.85 +.24) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.40 +.00) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.4970 +.0540)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.2650 +.0145) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly JDV Market Timer – October 9, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

10/09/11 (Commentary for Sunday) The ES peaked into Friday's turn window and then rolled over. Another washout into the Full Moon Timing Window on 10/11 could set up an important trading low. Gold and silver may have also peaked a corrective rally off the 9/26 low – a washout into the Full Moon on 10/11 may provide a good trade entry. The CDNX (a proxy for mining juniors) appears to need another leg down to finish a large corrective pattern – a market washout into 10/11 may provide another trading opportunity to add to juniors. We are looking for the start of a strong multi-month rally in the PM sector by 10/15. The COT numbers on gold and silver are bullish here – the HUI and GDXJ may be at new highs by early December based on compelling historical patterns with 2006. A meltdown in copper and other base metals suggests that this market decline could have some legs beyond an intermediate-term rally into October – note that the ECRI group just issued a RECESSION CALL. Economic data from China including year-over-year electricity consumption, MET coal imports and trade data with Taiwan all suggest a harder landing in China than anticipated. The breakdown in copper below August lows is a bearish signal for the entire commodities board. Our fundamental view is that China is experiencing a "hard landing" which combined with the European debt crisis should give us another leg down in the global bear market. Our markets are being driven by news from Europe and their attempt to patch over the string of sovereign bankruptcies appearing there – the fact that the USA is also in recession only adds to the selling pressure. The Dollar Index pulled back from .80 to around .785 - we added to our long UUP call position. A rally to .90 resistance on the DX weekly chart by the end of October/early November is likely.

   

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. The SPX tested the 8/8 low in an EW 5^th wave down on the turning point 10/04. However, the rally off the 10/4 looks corrective. Looking for at least a retest of the 10/4 lows by November – support at SPX=1020 may come into play. 

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold's summer break out to new highs in USD terms has very bullish ramifications. This year is comparing well with 2006 – a parabolic blow off in the spring and then a stiff >20% decline into October. We're looking for an explosive rally to start in the PM sector by 10/15 or so – this should run into early December. Gold did bottom on 9/26 and reversed up to confirm Weekly Reversal Timing – but a pullback this week into the Full Moon may give us another buying opportunity.

   

• Stocks – The SPX continued it's rally from 10/4 but the EW pattern looked CORRECTIVE – Friday gave us a top and reversal down – expecting a decline into 10/11
• Gold – Gold bottomed the 12-wk cycle low on 9/27 and reversed up but the rally pattern on the hourly chart looks corrective, so at least a retest of the 9/27 lows is expected. The COT numbers look very bullish. A decline in gold into 10/11 may lead to a sharp reversal higher. Based on historical patterns, this market feels like 2006 which also had a parabolic blow off in the spring and a stiff decline into October. Even if the 10/4 lows fail to hold in the next week, we expect a roaring PM sector starting in the next week or so.
• Silver – Silver bottomed the 12-wk cycle low 9/27 and reversed up to confirm Weekly Reversal Timing last week – however, the rally from 9/27 looks CORRECTIVE on the hourly – so at least a retest of the 9/27 lows is expected.
• Bonds – Bonds appear to be making an EW a-b-c correction on the hourly chart – another test of the highs is likely. The bonds may test the highs by 10/11.
• Crude oil – Crude reversed down with the SPX late Friday – may see an important short-term low around 10/11.
• Dollar index – The DX may have given us an important short-term low last week. We're looking for a rally to .90 going into late October/November.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:

The Full Moon Timing Window on 10/11 is a key turn window this week. The last New Moon on 9/27 gave us an important short-term top. If the PMs and SPX decline into 10/11, look for a reversal up.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL LATE-OCTOBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.4050 -.0350) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.61 -.13) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.40 +.04) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.4430 -.0420)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.2505 -.0245) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – October 6, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

10/06/11 (Commentary for Thursday) The ES rallied correctively into the 10/7 turn window and a Large Divergent Decline in the Option Premium Ratio argues for a pull back tomorrow. Gold and silver are also bouncing in an EW a-b-c pattern and the C-wave may have peaked today – so far the rally has been weak and we're looking for a retest of the 10/04 lows by 10/14 before the start of a huge PM rally. The COT numbers on gold and silver are bullish here - gold bottomed the 12-wk cycle low on 9/27 and reversed up. A meltdown in copper and other base metals suggests that this market decline could have some legs beyond an intermediate-term rally into October. Economic data from China including year-over-year electricity consumption, MET coal imports and trade data with Taiwan all suggest a harder landing in China than anticipated. The breakdown in copper below August lows is a bearish signal for the entire commodities board. Our fundamental view is that China is experiencing a "hard landing" which combined with the European debt crisis should give us another leg down in the global bear market. Our markets are being driven by news from Europe and their attempt to patch over the string of sovereign bankruptcies appearing there – the fact that the USA is also in recession only adds to the selling pressure. The Dollar Index pulled back from .80 – a move to .77 should be bought. A rally to .90 resistance on the DX weekly chart by the end of October/early November is likely.

   

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. The SPX tested the 8/8 low in an EW 5^th wave down on the turning point today. We need to see an impulsive rally higher to confirm Weekly Reversal Timing higher.

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold's summer break out to new highs in USD terms has very bullish ramifications. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until 12-wk cycle lows the week of 9/26before making additional purchases. Gold did bottom on 9/26 and reversed up to confirm Weekly Reversal Timing.

   

• Stocks – The SPX continued it's rally from Tuesday but the EW pattern still looks CORRECTIVE – looking for a short-term top and reversal down on Friday.
• Gold – Gold is rallying with very bullish COT readings – looking for a pop into the Full Moon on 10/11.
• Silver – Silver bottomed the 12-wk cycle low 9/27 and reversed up to confirm Weekly Reversal Timing last week – looking for a rally into 10/11.
• Bonds – Bonds appear to be making an EW a-b-c correction on the hourly chart – another test of the highs is likely.
• Crude oil – Crude is bouncing in an EW a-b-c correction – looking for a top and reversal down by Friday.
• Dollar index – After testing .80, the DX pulled back again – looking to repurchase around .77. After a brief correction, we're looking for a rally to .90 going into late October/November.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:

Monday has a strong reversal signature so a gap down open should be bought. The turn window from 10/5-10/7 could give us another trading high.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL LATE-OCTOBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.44 +.03) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.74 +.10) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.36 +.02) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.4850 +.0407)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.2750 +.016) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – October 5, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

10/05/11 (Commentary for Wednesday) We got a 55-day Fibonacci step out reversal up from the 8/8 lows for the SPX on Tuesday but the EW pattern still looks corrective – looking for a short-term peak and reversal down by the 10/7 turn window on Friday. Gold and silver are also bouncing in an EW a-b-c pattern with the C-wave due to fire up into this week – so far the rally has been weak and we're looking for a retest of the 9/27 lows by 10/14 before the start of a huge PM rally . The COT numbers on gold and silver are bullish here - gold bottomed the 12-wk cycle low on 9/27 and reversed up. A meltdown in copper and other base metals suggests that this market decline could have some legs beyond an intermediate-term rally into October. Economic data from China including year-over-year electricity consumption, MET coal imports and trade data with Taiwan all suggest a harder landing in China than anticipated. The breakdown in copper below August lows is a bearish signal for the entire commodities board. Our fundamental view is that China is experiencing a "hard landing" which combined with the European debt crisis should give us another leg down in the global bear market. Our markets are being driven by news from Europe and their attempt to patch over the string of sovereign bankruptcies appearing there – the fact that the USA is also in recession only adds to the selling pressure. The Dollar Index pulled back from .80. A rally to .90 resistance on the DX weekly chart by the end of October/early November is likely.

   

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. The SPX tested the 8/8 low in an EW 5^th wave down on the turning point today. We need to see an impulsive rally higher to confirm Weekly Reversal Timing highers.

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold's summer break out to new highs in USD terms has very bullish ramifications. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until 12-wk cycle lows the week of 9/26before making additional purchases. Gold did bottom on 9/26 and reversed up to confirm Weekly Reversal Timing.

   

• Stocks – The SPX continued it's rally from Tuesday but the EW pattern still looks CORRECTIVE – looking for a short-term top and reversal down by Friday.
• Gold – Gold is rallying with very bullish COT readings – looking for a pop into the Full Moon on 10/11.
• Silver – Silver bottomed the 12-wk cycle low 9/27 and reversed up to confirm Weekly Reversal Timing last week – looking for a rally into 10/11.
• Bonds – Bonds did not make new highs on Monday as the SPX made lower lows – bearish divergence. Looking for a setup to buy TLT puts.
• Crude oil – Crude is bouncing in an EW a-b-c correction – looking for a top and reversal down by Friday.
• Dollar index – After testing .80, the DX pulled back again. After a brief correction, we're looking for a rally to .90 going into late October/November.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:

Monday has a strong reversal signature so a gap down open should be bought. The turn window from 10/5-10/7 could give us another trading high.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL LATE-OCTOBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.36 -.04) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.64 +.00) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.36 +.02) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.4443 +.07)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.2590 +.008) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – October 4, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

10/04/11 (Commentary for Tuesday) We got a 55-day Fibonacci step out reversal up from the 8/8 lows for the SPX. The wash out in the new 52-wk cycle lows and the TRIN5 > 14 reading could imply a more bearish EW pattern is in play – looking for a strong trading bounce into Friday. A Merriman buy signal was given on the late reversal in the DJIA and close higher, Gold and silver are also bouncing in an EW a-b-c pattern with the C-wave due to fire up into this week. The COT numbers on gold and silver are bullish here - gold bottomed the 12-wk cycle low on 9/27 and reversed up. A meltdown in copper and other base metals suggests that this market decline could have some legs beyond an intermediate-term rally into October. Economic data from China including year-over-year electricity consumption, MET coal imports and trade data with Taiwan all suggest a harder landing in China than anticipated. The breakdown in copper below August lows is a bearish signal for the entire commodities board. Our fundamental view is that China is experiencing a "hard landing" which combined with the European debt crisis should give us another leg down in the global bear market. Our markets are being driven by news from Europe and their attempt to patch over the string of sovereign bankruptcies appearing there – the fact that the USA is also in recession only adds to the selling pressure. The Dollar Index pulled back from .80 . A rally to .90 resistance on the DX weekly chart by the end of October/early November is likely.

   

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. The SPX tested the 8/8 low in an EW 5^th wave down on the turning point today. We need to see an impulsive rally higher to confirm Weekly Reversal Timing highers.

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold's summer break out to new highs in USD terms has very bullish ramifications. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until 12-wk cycle lows the week of 9/26before making additional purchases. Gold did bottom on 9/26 and reversed up to confirm Weekly Reversal Timing.

   

• Stocks – The SPX broke through the 8/8 lows on apparent 5^th wave completions for many indices on today's turning point day. However, the market continues to break down with the TRIN5 coming in at >14 – if the SPX doesn't rally early tomorrow, a more bearish EW pattern may be in play
• Gold – Gold is rallying with very bullish COT readings – looking for a pop into the Full Moon on 10/11.
• Silver – Silver bottomed the 12-wk cycle low 9/27 and reversed up to confirm Weekly Reversal Timing last week – looking for a rally into 10/11.
• Bonds – Bonds made new highs and then pulled back correctively.
• Crude oil – Crude rallied in EW a-b-c fashion and is correcting sideways overnight – another leg up is due by Friday to finish correct.
• Dollar index – After testing .80, the DX is declining impulsively. After a brief correction, looking for a rally to .90 going into late October/November.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:

Monday has a strong reversal signature so a gap down open should be bought. The turn window from 10/5-10/7 could give us another trading high.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL LATE-OCTOBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.36 -.04) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.64 +.24) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.36 +.02) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.37 -.04)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.26 -.00) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.