All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer – September 15, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

9/15/11 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX continues to rally on short covering – a rally into the 9/19 turn window should be reversed down hard. Market action Monday and Tuesday has confirmed Weekly Reversal Timing to the upside for the SPX. A rally through expiration Friday and into the next turn window on 9/19 is still possible – in the absence of negative news from Europe. Gold gave us topping action in the Full Moon Timing Window and is now reversing down impulsively – a final leg of correction into 9/26 is expected where Weekly Reversal Timing is due for both gold and the dollar. Our markets are being driven by news from Europe and their attempt to patch over the string of sovereign bankruptcies appearing there – the fact that the USA is also in recession only adds to the selling pressure. The rising ascending channel pattern on the SPX daily chart could last into late September or so before the next bear leg down. The Dollar Index continues to consolidate - the next ECB policy move today (to quantitatively ease) actually rallied the Euro – we think this is a short-term reaction that will be reversed shortly – still looking for a rally to .90 resistance on the weekly chart by the end of September/early October.

   

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. The market's ascending channel pattern may last into late September before the next leg down into October.

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold's summer break out to new highs in USD terms has very bullish ramifications. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until August cycle lows before making additional purchases. Looking for gold to peak in the 9/12 Full Moon Timing Window and reverse down to late September.

   

• Stocks – The SPX is being driven by low-volume short covering. Weekly Reversal Timing from Starkey was confirmed Monday to the upside. A rally into the 9/19 turn window is expected absent bearish news from Europe.
• Gold – Gold is declining impulsively – a pull back into the week of 9/26 should end the correction before a fierce PM rally resumes.
• Silver – Silver appears to have finished a corrective bounce – looking for important lows in late September.
• Bonds – The bonds appear to be finishing an EW a-b-c correction chart – a rally to take out the August highs is likely before a big move down this fall.
• Crude oil – Crude oil is tracking the SPX and is tracing out a large ascending channel pattern since 8/8 – a flush below 8/8 lows is expected going into October lows.
• Dollar index – The DX continued its consolidation pattern – a test of .90 is expected going into Sept/Oct as the ECB is forced to adopt a quantitative easing strategy to bail bankrupt members of the EU.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:

The 9/12 Full Moon Timing Window should give us a reversal down in gold and perhaps a short-term low in the stock market. Looking for a reversal up by 9/14.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL MID-SEPTEMBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.52 -.03) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.31 -.02) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.62 +.01) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.7070 +.0265)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.300 +.005) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – September 14, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

9/14/11 (Commentary for Wednesday) The ES rallied hard on short covering as the market powered through 1185 in the afternoon – but selling came in to halve the gains before the close. A Large Divergent Decline in the Option Premium Ratio argues for early weakness tomorrow. Market action Monday and Tuesday has confirmed Weekly Reversal Timing to the upside for the SPX. A rally through expiration Friday and into the next turn window on 9/19 is still possible – in the absence of negative news from Europe. Gold gave us topping action in the Full Moon Timing Window and then reversed down hard – a final leg of correction into 9/26 is expected where Weekly Reversal Timing is due for both gold and the dollar. Our markets are being driven by news from Europe and their attempt to patch over the string of sovereign bankruptcies appearing there – the fact that the USA is also in recession only adds to the selling pressure. The rising ascending channel pattern on the SPX daily chart could last into late September or so before the next bear leg down. The Dollar Index continued to consolidate its large recent gains today - the next ECB policy move (to quantitatively ease) will likely send a rush of capital into the US Dollar and drive it to .90 resistance on the weekly chart by the end of September/early October.

   

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. The market's ascending channel pattern may last into late September before the next leg down into October.

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold's summer break out to new highs in USD terms has very bullish ramifications. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until August cycle lows before making additional purchases. Looking for gold to peak in the 9/12 Full Moon Timing Window and reverse down to late September.

   

• Stocks – Weekly Reversal Timing from Starkey was further confirmed today to the upside. A rally into the 9/19 turn window is expected absent bearish news from Europe – however, a Large Divergent Decline in the Option Premium Ratio argues for early weakness tomorrow.
• Gold – Gold showed topping action going into the Full Moon Timing Window and then declined hard – a pull back into the week of 9/26 should end the correction before a fierce PM rally resumes.
• Silver – Silver appears to have finished a corrective bounce – looking for important lows in late September.
• Bonds – The bonds appear to be finishing an EW a-b-c correction chart – a rally to take out the August highs is likely before a big move down this fall.
• Crude oil – Crude oil is tracking the SPX and is tracing out a large ascending channel pattern since 8/8 – a flush below 8/8 lows is expected going into October lows.
• Dollar index – The DX continued its consolidation pattern – a test of .90 is expected going into Sept/Oct as the ECB is forced to adopt a quantitative easing strategy to bail bankrupt members of the EU.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:

The 9/12 Full Moon Timing Window should give us a reversal down in gold and perhaps a short-term low in the stock market. Looking for a reversal up by 9/14.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL MID-SEPTEMBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.55 +.03) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.33 -.04) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.60 -.01) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.6615 +.0265)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.295 -.005) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – September 13, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

9/13/11 (Commentary for Tuesday) The NYSE tested the 8/8 lows on Monday's Full Moon while the SPX and QQQ tested the respective bottom trend lines of their ascending bear flag patterns. Market action Monday and Tuesday has confirmed Weekly Reversal Timing to the upside for the SPX. A rally through expiration Friday and into the next turn window on 9/19 is expected – in the absence of negative news from Europe. Gold gave us topping action in the Full Moon Timing Window and then reversed down hard – a final leg of correction into 9/26 is expected where Weekly Reversal Timing is due for both gold and the dollar. Our markets are being driven by news from Europe and their attempt to patch over the string of sovereign bankruptcies appearing there – the fact that the USA is also in recession only adds to the selling pressure. The rising ascending channel pattern on the SPX daily chart could last into 9/26 or so before the next bear leg down. The Dollar Index continued to consolidate its large recent gains today - the next ECB policy move (to quantitatively ease) will likely send a rush of capital into the US Dollar and drive it to .90 resistance on the weekly chart by the end of September/early October.

   

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. The market's ascending channel pattern may last into late September before the next leg down into October.

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold's summer break out to new highs in USD terms has very bullish ramifications. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until August cycle lows before making additional purchases. Looking for gold to peak in the 9/12 Full Moon Timing Window and reverse down to late September.

   

• Stocks – Weekly Reversal Timing from Starkey was further confirmed today to the upside. A rally into the 9/19 turn window is expected absent bearish news from Europe.
• Gold – Gold showed topping action going into the Full Moon Timing Window and then declined hard – a pull back into the week of 9/26 should end the correction before a fierce PM rally resumes.
• Silver – Silver appears to have finished a corrective bounce – looking to important lows in late September.
• Bonds – The bonds may be declining impulsively on the 5 min chart – taking out Tuesday's low will complete an EW 5-waves down pattern.
• Crude oil – Crude oil is tracking the SPX and is tracing out a large ascending channel pattern since 8/8 – a flush below 8/8 lows is expected going into October lows.
• Dollar index – The DX spent the day finishing a small corrective pattern – a test of .90 is expected going into Sept/Oct as the ECB is forced to adopt a quantitative easing strategy to bail bankrupt members of the EU.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:

The 9/12 Full Moon Timing Window should give us a reversal down in gold and perhaps a short-term low in the stock market. Looking for a reversal up by 9/14.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL MID-SEPTEMBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.52 -.01) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.37 +.18) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.61 +.03) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.6350 +.0085)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.30 -.005) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – September 12, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

9/12/11 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX gave us a gap down opening this morning and the reversal back up appears to have confirmed Weekly Reversal Timing to the upside. A rally into the next turn window on 9/19 is expected. Gold gave us topping action in the Full Moon Timing Window and then reversed down hard – a final leg of correction into 9/26 is expected. Our markets are being driven by news from Europe and their attempt to patch over the string of sovereign bankruptcies appearing there – the fact that the USA is also in recession only adds to the selling pressure. The rising ascending channel pattern on the SPX daily chart could last into 9/26 or so before the next bear leg down. The Dollar Index consolidated its large recent gains today - the next ECB policy move (to quantitatively ease) will likely send a rush of capital into the US Dollar and drive it to .90 resistance on the weekly chart by the end of September/early October.

   

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. The market's ascending channel pattern may last into late September before the next leg down into October.

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold's summer break out to new highs in USD terms has very bullish ramifications. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until August cycle lows before making additional purchases. Looking for gold to peak in the 9/12 Full Moon Timing Window and reverse down to late September.

   

• Stocks – We got a gap down opening today. Weekly Reversal Timing from Starkey was confirmed today to the upside. A rally into the 9/19 turn window is expected.
• Gold – Gold showed topping action going into the Full Moon Timing Window and then declined hard – a pull back into the week of 9/26 should end the decline.
• Silver – Silver declined today but got a bounce late.
• Bonds – The bonds are pulling back correctively on the 5 min chart.
• Crude oil – Crude oil is tracking the SPX and is tracing out a large ascending channel pattern since 8/8.
• Dollar index – The DX spent the day finishing a small corrective pattern – a test of .90 is expected going into Sept/Oct as the ECB is forced to adopt a quantitative easing strategy to bail bankrupt members of the EU.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:

The 9/12 Full Moon Timing Window should give us a reversal down in gold and perhaps a short-term low in the stock market. Looking for a reversal up by 9/14.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL MID-SEPTEMBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.53 +.01) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.19 -.05) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.58 -.02) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.6265 -.0305)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.3050 +.01) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly JDV Market Timer – September 11, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

9/11/11 (Commentary for Sunday) The SPX declined hard on Friday and may be on its way to test 8/8 lows. A gap down Monday morning is possible. We should see an important intermediate low early next week that should launch a strong bear market rally into late September. Gold rallied hard on currency turmoil in Europe – we should a short-term peak in the Full Moon before another leg down. Our markets are being driven by news from Europe and their attempt to patch over the string of sovereign bankruptcies appearing there – the fact that the USA is also in recession only adds to the selling pressure. A decline that at least tests the 8/8 low is expected by 9/14 before a substantial bear market rally starts. Bonds did not rally much considering the market decline – looking for a bearish divergence if the 30-yr Treasury yield doesn't take out its 12/2008 lows as the 10-yr did. The Dollar Index broke out above .76 after the epic events in the currency markets early Monday (the Swiss France was pegged to the Euro) - the next ECB policy move (to quantitatively ease) will likely send a rush of capital into the US Dollar and drive it to .90 resistance on the weekly chart by the end of September/early October. We shorted the Euro today on the break of its trading range.

   

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. We're looking for Wave 5 of C down on the daily chart to test or exceed the lows of 8/8-8/9.

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold's summer break out to new highs in USD terms has very bullish ramifications. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until August cycle lows before making additional purchases. Looking for gold to peak in the 9/12 Full Moon Timing Window and reverse down to late September.

   

• Stocks – A gap down opening into Monday Full Moon Timing Window could give us an important short-term low. Weekly Reversal Timing from Starkey is due this week. Europe should be the catalyst.
• Gold – Gold is bouncing into the Full Moon Timing Window on 9/12 – this should provide a good shorting opportunity for another leg down.
• Silver – Silver is also bouncing into the Full Moon Timing Window.
• Bonds – The bonds are bouncing to test the August highs.
• Crude oil – Crude oil is tracking the SPX and should reverse down to test the early August lows.
• Dollar index – The DX is breaking out above .76 – a test of .90 is expected going into Sept/Oct as the ECB is forced to adopt a quantitative easing strategy to bail bankrupt members of the EU.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:

The 9/12 Full Moon Timing Window should give us a reversal down in gold and perhaps a short-term low in the stock market. Looking for a reversal up by 9/14.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL MID-SEPTEMBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.52 -.02) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.24 -.01) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.60 +.00) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.6570 -.0366)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.2950 +.005) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – September 8, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

9/08/11 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX rolled over today and may have started a decline to test the 8/8-8/9 lows. This decline should result in an important intermediate low early next week that should launch a strong bear market rally into late September. Gold rallied hard on currency turmoil in Europe – we should see a spirited bounce into the 9/12 Full Moon Timing Window before the next leg down into a late September turn window. Our markets are being driven by news from Europe and their attempt to patch over the string of sovereign bankruptcies appearing there – the fact that the USA is also in recession only adds to the selling pressure. A decline that at least tests the 8/8 low is expected by 9/16 before a substantial bear market rally starts. Bonds did not rally much considering the market decline – looking for a bearish divergence if the 30-yr Treasury yield doesn't take out its 12/2008 lows as the 10-yr did. The Dollar Index broke out above .76 after the epic events in the currency markets early Monday (the Swiss France was pegged to the Euro) - the next ECB policy move (to quantitatively ease) will likely send a rush of capital into the US Dollar and drive it to .90 resistance on the weekly chart by the end of September/early October. We shorted the Euro today on the break of its trading range.

   

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. We're looking for Wave 5 of C down on the daily chart to test or exceed the lows of 8/8-8/9.

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold's summer break out to new highs in USD terms has very bullish ramifications. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until August cycle lows before making additional purchases. Gold took out the 62% retracement of the August decline and is soaring to make a B-Wave test of the August highs.

   

• Stocks – The ES appears to have started a decline to test the 8/8 lows next week – Europe should be the catalyst.
• Gold – Gold is bouncing into the Full Moon Timing Window on 9/12 – this should provide a good shorting opportunity for another leg down.
• Silver – Silver is also bouncing into the Full Moon Timing Window.
• Bonds – The bonds did not rally on a weak stock market today – we need to watch the tape here closely on Friday.
• Crude oil – Crude oil is tracking the SPX and should reverse down to test the early August lows.
• Dollar index – The DX is breaking out above .76 – a test of .90 is expected going into Sept/Oct as the ECB is forced to adopt a quantitative easing strategy to bail bankrupt members of the EU. We shorted the Euro today.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:

The 9/6-9/7 turn window should give us a bounce for a few days before a final low early next week.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL MID-SEPTEMBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.54 +.01) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – this company is at the verge of a major rerating in price – recent drilling results from the Carlin trend, the JV with AEM at Rattlesnake Hills, and the refocusing of Quinton on the exploration effort are all very positive signs.
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.25 +.04) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.60 +.01) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.6936 +.0076)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.29 +.00) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – September 7, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

9/07/11 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX is close to finishing its corrective rally – a decline should start tomorrow that extends into next week and test the 8/8-8/9 lows. This should result in an important intermediate low that should launch a strong bear market rally. Gold reversed down after making a B-Wave test of the August high – we should see a spirited bounce into the 9/12 Full Moon Timing Window before the next leg down into a late September turn window. Our markets are being driven by news from Europe and their attempt to patch over the string of sovereign bankruptcies appearing there – the fact that the USA is also in recession only adds to the selling pressure. A decline that takes out the 8/8 low is expected by 9/16 before a substantial rally starts. Bonds exploded through their August highs and the yield on the 10-yr Treasury took out the lows from 12/08 – this may set up a bearish divergence if the 30-yr Treasury yield doesn't follow suit. The Dollar Index broke out above .76 after the epic events in the currency markets early Monday (the Swiss France was pegged to the Euro) - the next ECB policy move (to quantitatively ease) will likely send a rush of capital into the US Dollar and drive it to .90 resistance on the weekly chart by the end of September/early October. At this point, the Aussie and Canadian Dollar look ready to short.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. We're looking for Wave 5 of C down on the daily chart to test or exceed the lows of 8/8-8/9.

 

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold's summer break out to new highs in USD terms has very bullish ramifications. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until August cycle lows before making additional purchases. Gold took out the 62% retracement of the August decline and is soaring to make a B-Wave test of the August highs.

 

• Stocks – The ES should end its rally by tomorrow and decline to test the 8/8-8/9 lows by early next week – Europe should be the catalyst.
• Gold – Gold reversed down after a B-Wave test of the August highs – we should see a bounce into the Full Moon Timing Window on 9/12.
• Silver – Silver should also bounce into the Full Moon Timing Window.
• Bonds – The bonds should make another thrust higher by early next week.
• Crude oil – Crude oil is tracking the SPX and should reverse down to test the August lows.
• Dollar index – The DX is breaking out above .76 – a test of .90 is expected going into Sept/Oct as the ECB is forced to adopt a quantitative easing strategy to bail bankrupt members of the EU.

   

TURNING POINT DAY:

The 9/6-9/7 turn window should give us a bounce for a few days before a final low early next week.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL MID-SEPTEMBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.51 +.00) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – this company is at the verge of a major rerating in price – recent drilling results from the Carlin trend, the JV with AEM at Rattlesnake Hills, and the refocusing of Quinton on the exploration effort are all very positive signs.
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.30 +.09) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.59 +.01) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.6860 +.004)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.27 +.01) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – September 6, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

9/06/11 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX gapped down but recovered most of the losses in the 9/6-9/7 turn window. The SPX should bounce for a few days before heading lower to take out the 8/8-8/9 lows by 9/16. This should result in an important intermediate low that should launch a strong bear market rally. Gold is making a B-Wave test of the August high – bearish divergence from silver is a signal of a strong decline coming soon. Our markets are being driven by news from Europe and their attempt to patch over the string of sovereign bankruptcies appearing there – the fact that the USA is also in recession only adds to the selling pressure. A decline that takes out the 8/8 low is expected by 9/16 before a substantial rally starts. Bonds exploded through their August highs and the yield on the 10-yr Treasury took out the lows from 12/08 – this may set up a bearish divergence if the 30-yr Treasury yield doesn't follow suit. The Dollar Index broke out above .76 after the epic events in the currency markets overnight (the Swiss France was pegged to the Euro) - the next ECB policy move (to quantitatively ease) will likely send a rush of capital into the US Dollar and drive it to .90 resistance on the weekly chart by the end of September/early October. At this point, the Aussie and Canadian Dollar look ready to short.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. We're looking for Wave 5 of C down on the daily chart to test or exceed the lows of 8/8-8/9.

 

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold's summer break out to new highs in USD terms has very bullish ramifications. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until August cycle lows before making additional purchases. Gold took out the 62% retracement of the August decline and is soaring to make a B-Wave test of the August highs.

 

• Stocks – The ES may have bottomed a 3^rd wave – the market should bounce for a couple of days before the next leg down into next week.
• Gold – Gold made a B-Wave test of the August highs – bearish divergence from silver argues for a turn down here.
• Silver – Silver rallied early but then reversed down – a strong sell off is possible.
• Bonds – The bonds took out their August highs as panic lead money into safe havens.
• Crude oil – Crude oil is tracking the SPX and reversing down hard to test the lows of 8/8-8/9.
• Dollar index – The DX is breaking out above .76 – a test of .90 is expected going into Sept/Oct as the ECB is forced to adopt a quantitative easing strategy to bail bankrupt members of the EU.

   

TURNING POINT DAY:

The 9/6-9/7 turn window should give us a bounce for a few days before a final low early next week.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL MID-SEPTEMBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.52 +.01) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – this company is at the verge of a major rerating in price – recent drilling results from the Carlin trend, the JV with AEM at Rattlesnake Hills, and the refocusing of Quinton on the exploration effort are all very positive signs.
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.21 -.01) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.59 +.01) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.6820 -.038)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.26 +.00) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

The Weekly JDV Market Timer – September 4, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

9/04/11 (Commentary for Sunday) After peaking on 8/31, the ES is declining in a Wave 5 of C on the daily chart. A retest of the 8/8-8/9 lows is underway. A Large Divergent Rally in the Option Premium Ratio argues for a rally in the 9/6-9/7 turn window. Our markets are being driven by news from Europe and their attempt to patch over the string of sovereign bankruptcies appearing there. A decline that takes out the 8/8 low is expected by 9/16 before a substantial rally starts. Gold exploded through the 62% retracement of the August decline and is testing the August highs – look for divergences with silver to set a short-term high in the 9/6-9/7 turn window. Bonds finished their EW a-b-c correction and are taking out their August highs. The Dollar Index is breaking out above .75 and the next ECB policy move (to quantitatively ease) will likely send a rush of capital into the US Dollar and drive it to .90 resistance on the weekly chart by the end of September/early October. The blow off in the Swiss Franc argues for a dollar breakout soon to the upside.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. We're looking for Wave 5 of C down on the daily chart to test or exceed the lows of 8/8-8/9.

 

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold's summer break out to new highs in USD terms has very bullish ramifications. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until August cycle lows before making additional purchases. Gold took out the 62% retracement of the August decline and is soaring to make a B-Wave test of the August highs.

 

• Stocks – The ES peaked Wave 4 on 8/31 and reversed down in a Wave 5 on the daily to test or exceed the 8/8-8/9 lows.
• Gold – Gold blasted through the 62% retracement level – looking for a retest of the August highs and a reversal down.
• Silver – Silver is rallying – but look for divergences with gold as we retest the August highs – a reversal down Tuesday is possible.
• Bonds – The bonds finished their EW a-b-c correction and are rallying to take out its August highs.
• Crude oil – Crude oil is tracking the SPX and reversing down hard to test the lows of 8/8-8/9.
• Dollar index – The DX is breaking out above .75 – a test of .90 is expected going into Sept/Oct as the ECB is forced to adopt a quantitative easing strategy to bail bankrupt members of the EU.

   

TURNING POINT DAY:

The 9/6-9/7 turn window should give us a bounce for a few days before a final low early next week.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL MID-SEPTEMBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.52 +.02) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – this company is at the verge of a major rerating in price – recent drilling results from the Carlin trend, the JV with AEM at Rattlesnake Hills, and the refocusing of Quinton on the exploration effort are all very positive signs.
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.22 -.26) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.58 -.01) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.7320 +.0130)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.26 +.0050) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – September 1, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

9/01/11 (Commentary for Thursday) The rally pattern of the ES on the hourly chart may not be complete – the NFP number tomorrow should settle the issue. The decline from yesterday may be counted as a 4^th wave on the hourly chart. A 5^th wave rally tomorrow is possible before the large decline that we are expecting into mid-September – however, taking out Thursday's lows impulsively will clearly indicate that a decline to test the 8/8 lows is underway. Gold keeps retesting the key 62% retracement level – gold is trading inverse to the SPX – a rally in the SPX early tomorrow should give gold a move down. Bonds are correcting as money comes out to chase stocks but we are close to finishing and EW a-b-c decline on the 5 min chart. The Dollar Index continues to base below .75 but the next ECB policy move (to quantitatively ease) will likely send a rush of capital into the US Dollar and drive it to .90 resistance on the weekly chart by the end of September. The blow off in the Swiss Franc argues for a dollar breakout soon to the upside.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. We're looking for Wave C of 4 to peak around 8/31-9/1 and then a reversal down to test 8/8 lows in early September.

 

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold's summer break out to new highs in USD terms has very bullish ramifications. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until August cycle lows before making additional purchases. Gold stocks may have made a major low on 6/16 – 36-wk cycle lows may give us a buying opportunity into late August/early September.

 

• Stocks – The ES may have finished Wave 4 of C on the daily chart today but the EW rally pattern does not look complete on the hourly – we may get a rally early tomorrow before a sharp reversal down. We have an OPR/MO sell signal and an Ord TICK divergence sell signal in place.
• Gold – Gold rallied again to retest the 62% retracement level – need a clean impulsive wave to get us going on the downside.
• Silver – Silver is close to making another leg down – the corrective rally looks complete.
• Bonds – The bonds appear to be still working on an EW a-b-c correction on the hourly – a reversal up this week is likely.
• Crude oil – Crude oil is tracking the SPX – looking for a peak and reversal down this week.
• Dollar index – The DX continues to base below .75 – a breakout to .90 is expected going into September as the ECB is forced to adopt a quantitative easing strategy to bail out Italy.

   

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

The 8/29 turning point day should top Wave C of 4 and lead to a reversal down to test the 8/8 lows.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL MID-SEPTEMBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.50 -.05) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – this company is at the verge of a major rerating in price – recent drilling results from the Carlin trend, the JV with AEM at Rattlesnake Hills, and the refocusing of Quinton on the exploration effort are all very positive signs.
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.48 -.03) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.59 -.02) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.7320 +.0130)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.26 +.0050) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.