All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer – September 29, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

9/29/11 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX is coiling for a leg up to test the 1196 level - gold and silver are also bouncing in an EW a-b-c pattern with the C-wave up set to come tomorrow or Monday. The relative strength of the gold stocks did not impress us on this week's bounce, however, and suggests, that after more rally into October, the PM complex will then test its lows again – this is consistent with our long held view that the DX will test .90 this fall. Gold bottomed the 12-wk cycle low on Monday - the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 8/23 high targeted the 9/27 New Moon as potential low timing and we bottomed one day early. A meltdown in copper and other base metals suggests that this market decline could have some legs beyond an intermediate-term rally into October. Economic data from China including year-over-year electricity consumption, MET coal imports and trade data with Taiwan all suggest a harder landing in China than anticipated. The breakdown in copper below August lows is a bearish signal for the entire commodities board. Our fundamental view is that China is experiencing a "hard landing" which combined with the European debt crisis should give us another leg down in the global bear market. Our markets are being driven by news from Europe and their attempt to patch over the string of sovereign bankruptcies appearing there – the fact that the USA is also in recession only adds to the selling pressure. The Dollar Index tested .80 early Monday and reversed down. A rally to .90 resistance on the DX weekly chart by the end of October/early November is likely.

   

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. The SPX peaked on 9/21 – looking for intermediate low by 9/27. A fierce bear market rally should ensue into October before the start of another leg down into January.

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold's summer break out to new highs in USD terms has very bullish ramifications. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until 12-wk cycle lows the week of 9/26before making additional purchases. Gold is targeting a low around 9/27 on the 12-wk cycle low. This low should bottom the PM complex and start a fierce reversal up.

•  Stocks – The SPX pulled back in a Wave B of an EW a-b-c pattern on the 5 min chart – looking for a Wave C up into next week.
• Gold – Gold fell in a Wave B of an EW a-b-c correction on the 5 min – looking for Wave C up into next week.
• Silver – Silver bottomed the 12-wk cycle low Monday and reversed up to confirm Weekly Reversal Timing – a rally into October is expected.
• Bonds – Bonds fell in an EW 5-wave down pattern which would imply a short-term top in bonds and a bottom in stocks.
• Crude oil – Crude bounced correctively into the New Moon Timing Window and reversed down – another corrective leg up is likely into early October.
• Dollar index – The DX has completed an EW a-b-c bounce into .79 – looking for another leg down before a rally to .90 going into late October/November.

   

TURNING POINT DAY:

We have a strong turning point cluster for this week that suggests a strong reversal to the upside. The 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 8/23 high targets 9/27 as the time window for a low in gold.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL MID-SEPTEMBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.40 -.025) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.84 +.17) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.4450 +.00) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.4735 -.0065)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.25 -.00) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – September 28, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

9/28/11 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX rally from the Monday low is clearly corrective here and we sold off in a Wave B of an EW a-b-c corrective pattern today – however, a Wave C up should start tomorrow and run into the 10/8 turn window. Gold and silver are also bouncing in an EW a-b-c pattern with the C-wave up set to come tomorrow. The relative strength of the gold stocks did not impress us on this week's bounce, however, and suggests, that after more rally into October,  the PM complex will make lower lows – this is consistent with our long held view that the DX will test .90 this fall. Gold bottomed the 12-wk cycle low on Monday - the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 8/23 high targeted the 9/27 New Moon as potential low timing and we bottomed one day early. A meltdown in copper and other base metals suggests that this market decline could have some legs beyond an intermediate-term rally into October. Economic data from China including year-over-year electricity consumption, MET coal imports and trade data with Taiwan all suggest a harder landing in China than anticipated. The breakdown in copper below August lows is a bearish signal for the entire commodities board. Our fundamental view is that China is experiencing a "hard landing" which combined with the European debt crisis should give us another leg down in the global bear market. Our markets are being driven by news from Europe and their attempt to patch over the string of sovereign bankruptcies appearing there – the fact that the USA is also in recession only adds to the selling pressure. The Dollar Index tested .80 early Monday and reversed down. A rally to .90 resistance on the DX weekly chart by the end of October/early November is likely.

   

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. The SPX peaked on 9/21 – looking for intermediate low by 9/27. A fierce bear market rally should ensue into October before the start of another leg down into January.

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold's summer break out to new highs in USD terms has very bullish ramifications. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until 12-wk cycle lows the week of 9/26before making additional purchases. Gold is targeting a low around 9/27 on the 12-wk cycle low. This low should bottom the PM complex and start a fierce reversal up.

   

• Stocks – The SPX pulled back in a Wave B of an EW a-b-c pattern on the 5 min chart – looking for a Wave C up into next week.
• Gold – Gold fell in a Wave B of an EW a-b-c correction on the 5 min – looking for Wave C up into next week.
• Silver – Silver bottomed the 12-wk cycle low Monday and reversed up to confirm Weekly Reversal Timing – a rally into October is expected.
• Bonds – Bonds fell in an EW 5-wave down pattern which would imply a short-term top in bonds and a bottom in stocks.
• Crude oil – Crude bounced correctively into the New Moon Timing Window and reversed down – another corrective leg up is likely into early October.
• Dollar index – The DX has completed an EW a-b-c bounce into .79 – looking for another leg down before a rally to .90 going into late October/November.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:

We have a strong turning point cluster for this week that suggests a strong reversal to the upside. The 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 8/23 high targets 9/27 as the time window for a low in gold.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL LATE-OCTOBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.425 -.025) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.84 +.17) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.4450 +.00) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.4735 -.0065)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.25 -.00) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – September 27, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

9/27/11 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX bounced correctively into the New Moon Timing Window today and then reversed down – should see a short-term pull back before another leg higher into early October. The relative performance of the HUI/XAU did not impress us, however, and suggests, that after more rally into October, the PM complex will make lower lows – this is consistent with our long held view that the DX will test .90 this fall. Gold bottomed the 12-wk cycle low on Monday - the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 8/23 high targeted the 9/27 New Moon as potential low timing and we bottomed one day early. A meltdown in copper and other base metals suggests that this market decline could have some legs beyond an intermediate-term rally into October. Economic data from China including year-over-year electricity consumption, MET coal imports and trade data with Taiwan all suggest a harder landing in China than anticipated. The breakdown in copper below August lows is a bearish signal for the entire commodities board. Our fundamental view is that China is experiencing a "hard landing" which combined with the European debt crisis should give us another leg down in the global bear market. Our markets are being driven by news from Europe and their attempt to patch over the string of sovereign bankruptcies appearing there – the fact that the USA is also in recession only adds to the selling pressure. The Dollar Index tested .80 early Monday and reversed down. A rally to .90 resistance on the DX weekly chart by the end of October/early November is likely.

   

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. The SPX peaked on 9/21 – looking for intermediate low by 9/27. A fierce bear market rally should ensue into October before the start of another leg down into January.

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold's summer break out to new highs in USD terms has very bullish ramifications. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until 12-wk cycle lows the week of 9/26before making additional purchases. Gold is targeting a low around 9/27 on the 12-wk cycle low. This low should bottom the PM complex and start a fierce reversal up.

   

• Stocks – The SPX bounced correctively into the New Moon today and reversed down – looking for a short-term pullback before another leg higher.
• Gold – Gold may have made an important intermediate low – a Fibonacci 34-day step out from the 8/23 high pointed to 9/27 as the date for a correction low and we may have bottomed one day early on Monday. The 12-wk cycle low bottomed Monday reversing up to CONFIRM Weekly Reversal Timing to the upside. The New Moon today may have drawn gold up into a short-term peak – looking for a pullback before another leg higher.
• Silver – Silver bottomed the 12-wk cycle low Monday and reversed up to confirm Weekly Reversal Timing – a rally into October is expected.
• Bonds – Bonds fell in an EW 5-waves down pattern which would imply a short-term top in bonds and a bottom in stocks.
• Crude oil – Crude bounced correctively into the New Moon Timing Window and reversed down – another corrective leg up is likely into early October.
• Dollar index – The DX made a short-term top near .80 and began a correction confirming Weekly Reversal Timing to the downside for the short-term. A rally to .90 is still expected going into late October/November.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:

We have a strong turning point cluster for this week that suggests a strong reversal to the upside. The 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 8/23 high targets 9/27 as the time window for a low in gold.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL MID-SEPTEMBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.45 +.04) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.84 +.08) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.4450 -.02) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.52 +.04)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.27 +.02) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – September 26, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

9/26/11 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX appears to have bounced correctively from Friday into the New Moon Timing Window centered on 9/27 – another leg down to undercut Friday's lows may start tomorrow but the intermediate picture is looking bullish as we have almost finished an EW 5-wave down pattern from the July high. Gold may have bottomed today - the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 8/23 high targeted the 9/27 New Moon as potential low timing and we may have bottomed the PM complex one day early. The SPX is testing the 8/8 lows on less volume and new 52-wk lows and argues for a strong reversal up by 9/27. Bullish divergence from the SPX and NDX (the NYSE and DJIA have taken out the 8/8 lows) suggests a reversal up soon. A meltdown in copper and other base metals suggests that this market decline could have some legs beyond an intermediate-term rally into October. Economic data from China including year-over-year electricity consumption, MET coal imports and trade data with Taiwan all suggest a harder landing in China than anticipated. The breakdown in copper below August lows is a bearish signal for the entire commodities board. Our fundamental view is that China is experiencing a "hard landing" which combined with the European debt crisis should give us another leg down in the global bear market. Our markets are being driven by news from Europe and their attempt to patch over the string of sovereign bankruptcies appearing there – the fact that the USA is also in recession only adds to the selling pressure. The Dollar Index tested .80 early Monday and reversed down – we're looking for a short-term peak by 9/27 but it looks like we may have peaked a day early – Weekly Reversal Timing is this week. A rally to .90 resistance on the DX weekly chart by the end of October is likely.

   

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. The SPX peaked on 9/21 – looking for intermediate low by 9/27. A fierce bear market rally should ensue into October before the start of another leg down into January.

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold's summer break out to new highs in USD terms has very bullish ramifications. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until 12-wk cycle lows the week of 9/26before making additional purchases. Gold is targeting a low around 9/27 on the 12-wk cycle low. This low should bottom the PM complex and start a fierce reversal up.

   

• Stocks – The SPX is close to finishing a 5-wave down pattern from July on the daily chart but the bounce from Friday looks correctively – so another leg down to take out Friday's low is possible before a bigger recovery rally.
• Gold – Gold may have made an important intermediate low – a Fibonacci 34-day step out from the 8/23 high pointed to 9/27 as the date for a correction low and we may have bottomed one day early. The 12-wk cycle low in due this week and Weekly Reversal Timing is also due. We took out last week's low and are reversing up to CONFIRM Weekly Reversal Timing to the upside.
• Silver – Silver may have bottomed the 12-wk cycle low today – a rally into October is expected.
• Bonds – Bonds may be close to tracing out an EW 5-wave down pattern which would imply a short-term top in bonds and a bottom in stocks.
• Crude oil – Crude may be bouncing correctively into the New Moon Timing Window – another leg down tomorrow is possible.
• Dollar index – The DX made a short-term top near .80 and began a correction – Weekly Reversal Timing is due. A rally to .90 is still expected going into late October.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:

We have a strong turning point cluster for this week that suggests a strong reversal to the upside. The 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 8/23 high targets 9/27 as the time window for a low in gold.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL MID-SEPTEMBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.41 -.025) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.76 -.11) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.4650 -.0150) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.4821 +.0001)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.25 -.013) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly JDV Market Timer – September 25, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

9/25/11 (Commentary for Sunday) The SPX is in a capitulation run to the downside – gold, stocks, the Dollar Index and bonds should stage reversals up this week. The timing for gold is the most precise - the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 8/23 high targets the 9/27 New Moon as potential low timing – stocks, bonds and the DX may reverse on 9/27 as well. The SPX is testing the 8/8 lows on less volume and new 52-wk lows and argues for a strong reversal up by 9/27. Bullish divergence from the SPX and NDX (the NYSE and DJIA have taken out the 8/8 lows) suggests a reversal up soon. A meltdown in copper and other base metals suggests that this market decline could have some legs. Economic data from China including year-over-year electricity consumption, MET coal imports and trade data with Taiwan all suggest a harder landing in China than anticipated. The breakdown in copper below August lows is a bearish signal for the entire commodities board. Our fundamental view is that China is experiencing a "hard landing" which combined with the European debt crisis should give us another leg down in the global bear market. Our markets are being driven by news from Europe and their attempt to patch over the string of sovereign bankruptcies appearing there – the fact that the USA is also in recession only adds to the selling pressure. The Dollar Index is testing .80 overnight – we're looking for a short-term peak by 9/27 – Weekly Reversal Timing is this week. A rally to .90 resistance on the DX weekly chart by the end of October is likely.

   

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. The SPX peaked on 9/21 – looking for intermediate low by 9/27. A fierce bear market rally should ensue into October before the start of another leg down into January.

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold's summer break out to new highs in USD terms has very bullish ramifications. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until 12-wk cycle lows the week of 9/26before making additional purchases. Gold is targeting a low around 9/27 on the 12-wk cycle low. This low should bottom the PM complex and start a fierce reversal up.

   

• Stocks – The SPX is in a capitulation run – a low should be achieved by 9/27. The price action in copper and other base metals suggest a commodity washout is underway. Bullish Divergences from the SPX and the NDX as some indices take out their 8/8 lows (DJIA and NYSE) suggest a reversal up soon.
• Gold – Gold is close to an important intermediate low – a Fibonacci 34-day step out from the 8/23 high points to 9/27 as the date for a correction low. The 12-wk cycle low in due this week and Weekly Reversal Timing is also due. Trading below last week's low and reversing up will be a sign to reverse to longs.
• Silver – Silver is looking for an important low by 9/27 – Weekly Reversal Timing and Projected Low Timing is this week.
• Bonds – A rally to take out the August highs is underway - expecting a big move down this fall.
• Crude oil – The breakdown in copper below the August lows is an important signal for commodities – a flush in crude oil below 8/8 lows is expected going into October lows.
• Dollar index – The DX is breaking through .79 – Weekly Reversal Timing is expected this week and a short term top is likely. A rally to .90 is expected going into late October.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:

We have a strong turning point cluster for this week that suggests a strong reversal to the upside. The 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 8/23 high targets 9/27 as the time window for a low in gold.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL MID-SEPTEMBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.47 -.04) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.89 -.07) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.48 -.02) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.48 -.07)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.2630 -.0346) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – September 22, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

9/22/11 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX is in a capitulation run to the downside, A bounce into the New Moon Timing Window on 9/27 is possible. The SPX is testing the 8/8 lows on less volume and new 52-wk lows and argues for a strong reversal up by 9/27. A meltdown in copper and other base metals suggests that this market decline could have some legs. Economic data from China including year-over-year electricity consumption, MET coal imports and trade data with Taiwan all suggest a harder landing in China than anticipated. The breakdown in copper below August lows is a bearish signal for the entire commodities board. Our fundamental view is that China is experiencing a "hard landing" which combined with the European debt crisis should give us another leg down in the global bear market. We expect gold to continue down into the week of 9/26 before a fierce resumption of the rally. Our markets are being driven by news from Europe and their attempt to patch over the string of sovereign bankruptcies appearing there – the fact that the USA is also in recession only adds to the selling pressure. The Dollar Index is making another break out attempt – still looking for a rally to .90 resistance on the DX weekly chart by the end of September/early October.

   

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. The SPX peaked on 9/21 – looking for intermediate low by 9/27.

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold's summer break out to new highs in USD terms has very bullish ramifications. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until August cycle lows before making additional purchases. Gold is targeting a low around 9/27 on the 12-wk cycle low.

   

• Stocks – The SPX is in a capitulation run – a low should be achieved by 9/27. The price action in copper and other base metals suggest a commodity washout is underway.
• Gold – Gold is close to an important intermediate low – a Fibonacci 34-day step out from the 8/23 high points to 9/27 as the date for a correction low.
• Silver – Silver is looking for an important low by 9/27.
• Bonds – A rally to take out the August highs is underway - expecting a big move down this fall.
• Crude oil – The breakdown in copper below the August lows is an important signal for commodities – a flush in crude oil below 8/8 lows is expected going into October lows.
• Dollar index – The DX made another break out attempt – a test of .90 is expected going into Sept/Oct as the ECB is forced to adopt a quantitative easing strategy to bail bankrupt members of the EU.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:

The 9/19-9/20 turn window should give us a reversal down in the SPX.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL MID-SEPTEMBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.47 -.04) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.96 -.05) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.50 -.02) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.55 -.06)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.30 -.01) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – September 21, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

9/21/11 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX declined on schedule after the FOMC statement was released. A 3-wave corrective bounce tomorrow should be shorted. A meltdown in copper and other base metals suggests that this market decline could have some legs. Economic data from China including year-over-year electricity consumption, MET coal imports and trade data with Taiwan all suggest a harder landing in China than anticipated. The Tuesday after expiration often gives us a reversal and since the market rallied into the end of the turning point cluster (9/17-9/20) a significant turn down may be at hand. The breakdown in copper below August lows is a bearish signal for the entire commodities board. Our fundamental view is that China is experiencing a "hard landing" which combined with the European debt crisis should give us another leg down in the global bear market. We expect gold to continue down into the week of 9/26 before a fierce resumption of the rally. Our markets are being driven by news from Europe and their attempt to patch over the string of sovereign bankruptcies appearing there – the fact that the USA is also in recession only adds to the selling pressure. The Dollar Index is making another break out attempt – still looking for a rally to .90 resistance on the DX weekly chart by the end of September/early October.

   

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. The SPX may peak in the 9/19-9/20 turning point window.

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold's summer break out to new highs in USD terms has very bullish ramifications. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until August cycle lows before making additional purchases. Looking for gold to peak in the 9/12 Full Moon Timing Window and reverse down to late September.

   

• Stocks – The SPX declined on schedule after the FOMC statement – a 3-wave corrective bounce should be shorted. A Large Divergent Rally on the Option Premium Ratio argues for early strength tomorrow. The price action in copper and other base metals suggest a commodity washout is underway.
• Gold – Gold fell on the post-FOMC market reaction - needs to take out Friday's lows to finish a declining wedge on the hourly – a Fibonacci 34-day step out from the 8/23 high points to 9/27 as the date for a correction low.
• Silver – Silver is looking for an important low by 9/27.
• Bonds – A rally to take out the August highs is underway - expecting a big move down this fall.
• Crude oil – The breakdown in copper below the August lows is an important signal for commodities – a flush in crude oil below 8/8 lows is expected going into October lows.
• Dollar index – The DX made another break out attempt – a test of .90 is expected going into Sept/Oct as the ECB is forced to adopt a quantitative easing strategy to bail bankrupt members of the EU.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:

The 9/19-9/20 turn window should give us a reversal down in the SPX.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL MID-SEPTEMBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.51 +.01) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.01 -.09) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.52 -.01) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.6120 -.0397)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.31 +.01) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – September 20, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

9/20/11 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX rallied into midday with a few tech stocks exploding higher but the indices reversed down into the close. The Tuesday after expiration often gives us a reversal and since the market rallied into the end of the turning point cluster (9/17-9/20) a turn down may be at hand. The breakdown in copper below August lows is a bearish signal for the entire commodities board. Our fundamental view is that China is experiencing a "hard landing" which combined with the European debt crisis should give us another leg down in the global bear market. We expect gold to continue down into the week of 9/26 before a fierce resumption of the rally. Our markets are being driven by news from Europe and their attempt to patch over the string of sovereign bankruptcies appearing there – the fact that the USA is also in recession only adds to the selling pressure. The Dollar Index is breaking up - the ECB policy move today (to quantitatively ease) should weaken the Euro in the short term – still looking for a rally to .90 resistance on the DX weekly chart by the end of September/early October.

   

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. The SPX may peak in the 9/19-9/20 turning point window.

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold's summer break out to new highs in USD terms has very bullish ramifications. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until August cycle lows before making additional purchases. Looking for gold to peak in the 9/12 Full Moon Timing Window and reverse down to late September.

   

• Stocks – The SPX rallied into the end of a large turning point cluster from 9/17-9/20 and reversed down today – the biggest move happens at the end of this kind of cluster. Looking for a decline down to start after the FOMC meeting on Tuesday. The price action in copper and other base metals suggest a commodity washout is underway.
• Gold – Gold needs to take out Friday's lows to finish a declining wedge on the hourly – a Fibonacci 34-day step out from the 8/23 high points to 9/27 as the date for a correction low.
• Silver – Silver is looking for important lows in late September.
• Bonds – A rally to take out the August highs is underway - expecting a big move down this fall.
• Crude oil – The breakdown in copper below the August lows is an important signal for commodities – a flush in crude oil below 8/8 lows is expected going into October lows.
• Dollar index – The DX has made a major breakout – a test of .90 is expected going into Sept/Oct as the ECB is forced to adopt a quantitative easing strategy to bail bankrupt members of the EU.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:

The 9/19-9/20 turn window should give us a reversal down in the SPX.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL MID-SEPTEMBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.50 -.02) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.10 -.11) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.53 -.02) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.6517 -.0403)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.30 -.00) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – September 19, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

9/19/11 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX is rallying into the 9/19-9/20 turn window – looking for a pullback to begin by the FOMC meeting on Tuesday. The breakdown in copper below August lows is a bearish signal for the entire commodities board. Today's early decline in the SPX was cushioned by large reversals up in tech stocks like AAPL and AMZN and CMG. In contrast to bearish expectations, it's notable that the ISEE call/put ratio is giving us back-to-back readings of 82 which is bullish – how the market acts going into tomorrow's FOMC meeting is key. Our fundamental view is that China is experiencing a "hard landing" which combined with the European debt crisis should give us another leg down in the global bear market. We expect gold to continue down into the week of 9/26 before a fierce resumption of the rally. Our markets are being driven by news from Europe and their attempt to patch over the string of sovereign bankruptcies appearing there – the fact that the USA is also in recession only adds to the selling pressure. The Dollar Index is breaking up - the ECB policy move today (to quantitatively ease) should weaken the Euro in the short term – still looking for a rally to .90 resistance on the DX weekly chart by the end of September/early October.

   

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. The SPX may peak in the 9/19-9/20 turning point window.

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold's summer break out to new highs in USD terms has very bullish ramifications. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until August cycle lows before making additional purchases. Looking for gold to peak in the 9/12 Full Moon Timing Window and reverse down to late September.

   

• Stocks – The SPX is rallying into the end of a large turning point cluster from 9/17-9/20 – the biggest move happens at the end of this kind of cluster. Looking for a decline down to start after the FOMC meeting on Tuesday, however, the ISEE call/put ratio looks supportive of a rally, so tomorrow's action is key.
• Gold – Gold declined hard today – a final corrective leg down into the 1600s/1700s is due by the week of 9/26.
• Silver – Silver appears to have finished a corrective bounce – looking for important lows in late September.
• Bonds – The bonds appear to be finishing an EW a-b-c correction chart – a rally to take out the August highs is likely before a big move down this fall.
• Crude oil – The breakdown in copper below the August lows is an important signal for commodities – a flush in crude oil below 8/8 lows is expected going into October lows.
• Dollar index – The DX has made a major breakout – a test of .90 is expected going into Sept/Oct as the ECB is forced to adopt a quantitative easing strategy to bail bankrupt members of the EU.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:

The 9/19-9/20 turn window should give us a reversal down in the SPX.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL MID-SEPTEMBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.52 +.01) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.21 -.02) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.55 -.04) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.69 -.04)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.30 -.01) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly JDV Market Timer – September 18, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

9/18/11 (Commentary for Sunday) The SPX is rallying into the 9/19-9/20 turn window – looking for a pullback to begin by Tuesday. The Friday reading of 3.30 on the TRIN5 is consistent with important market tops in recent months. Key stocks like IBM, GS and SLB rallied to "max-option pain" points on Friday implying a reaction to the downside in the coming week. Our fundamental view is that China is experiencing a "hard landing" which combined with the European debt crisis should give us another leg down in the global bear market. The Euro touched 1.39 late in the week which is as much as we expected for a corrective bounce. The SPX bounce off the 9/12 low confirmed Weekly Reversal Timing and gave us a bounce into expiration. We expect gold to make another leg down into the week of 9/26 before a fierce rally. Our markets are being driven by news from Europe and their attempt to patch over the string of sovereign bankruptcies appearing there – the fact that the USA is also in recession only adds to the selling pressure. The Dollar Index is breaking up Sunday night - the ECB policy move today (to quantitatively ease) should weaken the Euro in the short term – still looking for a rally to .90 resistance on the DX weekly chart by the end of September/early October.

   

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. The SPX may peak in the 9/19-9/20 turning point window.

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold's summer break out to new highs in USD terms has very bullish ramifications. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until August cycle lows before making additional purchases. Looking for gold to peak in the 9/12 Full Moon Timing Window and reverse down to late September.

   

• Stocks – The SPX is being driven by low-volume short covering that hit "max-option-pain" levels for key stocks like IBM and GS. The TRIN5 hit a very overbought level of 3.30 on Friday which is consistent with a short-term top.
• Gold – Gold rallied late in the week – still believe that another leg down into the 1700s is due by the week of 9/26.
• Silver – Silver appears to have finished a corrective bounce – looking for important lows in late September.
• Bonds – The bonds appear to be finishing an EW a-b-c correction chart – a rally to take out the August highs is likely before a big move down this fall.
• Crude oil – Crude oil is tracking the SPX and is tracing out a large ascending channel pattern since 8/8 – a flush below 8/8 lows is expected going into October lows.
• Dollar index – The DX has made a major breakout – a test of .90 is expected going into Sept/Oct as the ECB is forced to adopt a quantitative easing strategy to bail bankrupt members of the EU.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:

The 9/19-9/20 turn window should give us a reversal down in the SPX.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL MID-SEPTEMBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.51 -.01) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.23 -.08) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.59 -.03) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.73 +.02)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.31 +.01) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.