All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer – August 17, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

8/17/11 (Commentary for Wednesday) The ES may have broken down out of its corrective diagonal pattern today but we need confirmation by taking out Wednesday's low early on Thursday – looking for a retest of last week's low. The key markets to watch are copper and the Aussie dollar – if copper takes out last week's low it will imply a 3^rd wave of C down on the daily. Wall Street Sentiment Survey gave us a complacent sentiment reading (62% bullish/14% bearish) on 8/12 and that argues for caution. Headlines from Europe continue to drive this market and we feel that a "market friendly" band aid is still some days away from Europe. Gold rallied again but the 1-Day Reversal Timing on Thursday suggests an important turn down. Market volatility is being driven by European bank insolvency and our market is reacting to events and not initiating them. Bonds continue to thrive on European woes and are testing last week's highs. The Dollar Index continues to base below .75 but the next ECB policy move (to quantitatively ease) will likely send a rush of capital into the US Dollar and drive it to .90 resistance on the weekly chart. The blow off in the Swiss Franc argues for a dollar breakout soon to the upside.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. We got a momentum low as expected on 8/8 and then a corrective 3-wave rally into the 8/12 turn window that counts as a Wave 4 of C on the daily – we're now looking for a 5^th wave down into the 8/17-8/18 turn window which should lead to a strong reversal up.

 

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold's summer break out to new highs in USD terms has very bullish ramifications. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until August cycle lows before making additional purchases. Gold stocks may have made a major low on 6/16 – 36-wk cycle lows may give us a buying opportunity into mid-August.

 

• Stocks – The ES did reverse down in the 8/16-8/17 turn window but we need confirmation by taking out yesterday's low early on Thursday.
• Gold – 1-Day Reversal Timing is due on Thursday – looking for a potential reversal.
• Silver – Silver is due 1-Day Reversal Timing on Thursday – if silver takes out Wednesday's high and reverses down we will have confirmation.
• Bonds – The bonds went parabolic after the FOMC statement – may be finishing a large Wave 2 rally on the weekly chart. Bonds are testing the highs from last week.
• Crude oil – Crude oil rallied into the 8/16-8/17 and then reversed down – this market is being pushed around by high-frequency traders and should follow the market down.
• Dollar index – The DX continues to base below .75 – a breakout to .90 is expected going into September as the ECB is forced to choose a quantitative easing strategy to bail out Italy. A blow off top on the Swiss Franc argues for a large bounce in the dollar soon

   

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

The 8/17-8/18 turning point window could give us a test of last week's lows and then a reversal up on the SPX.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL MID-SEPTEMBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.60 +.03) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – this company is at the verge of a major rerating in price – recent drilling results from the Carlin trend, the JV with AEM at Rattlesnake Hills, and the refocusing of Quinton on the exploration effort are all very positive signs.
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.32 +.32) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.61 +.02) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.71 +.021)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKD) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.2740 -.001) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – August 16, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

8/16/11 (Commentary for Tuesday) The ES may have broken down out of its corrective diagonal pattern from last week – we got a Negative Volume Reversal on the NYSE index today – we're looking for a retest of last week's low. Wall Street Sentiment Survey gave us a complacent sentiment reading (62% bullish/14% bearish) on 8/12 and that argues for caution. Headlines from Europe continue to drive this market and we feel that a "market friendly" band aid is still some days away from Europe. Gold rallied again but the 1-Day Reversal Timing on Thursday suggests an important turn soon. Market volatility is being driven by European bank insolvency and our market is reacting to events and not initiating them. Bonds continue to hang in there on European woes and have the potential of making new highs. The Dollar Index continues to base below .75 but the next ECB policy move (to quantitatively ease) will likely send a rush of capital into the US Dollar and drive it to .90 resistance on the weekly chart. The blow off in the Swiss Franc argues for a dollar breakout soon to the upside.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. We got a momentum low as expected on 8/8 and then a corrective 3-wave rally into the 8/12 turn window that counts as a Wave 4 of C on the daily – we're now looking for a 5^th wave down into the 8/17-8/18 turn window which should lead to a strong reversal up.

 

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold's summer break out to new highs in USD terms has very bullish ramifications. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until August cycle lows before making additional purchases. Gold stocks may have made a major low on 6/16 – 36-wk cycle lows may give us a buying opportunity into mid-August.

 

• Stocks – The ES powered higher after the 8/12 turn window but the pattern of the rally from 8/8 looks corrective. Extreme bullish sentiment from the Wall Street Sentiment Survey (62%/14%) on 8/12 argues for caution. Looking for a retest of last week's low. The news from Euro land is not market friendly here.
• Gold – Gold rallied beyond the Full Moon Timing Window – 1-Day Reversal Timing is due on Thursday and may provide the next interval for a top.
• Silver – Silver advanced beyond the Full Moon Timing Window – a sign of strength. The turn window on 8/17-8/18 is the next time window to look for a top.
• Bonds – The bonds went parabolic after the FOMC statement – may be finishing a large Wave 2 rally on the weekly chart. The chart pattern on the 5-min chart does not rule out higher highs
• Crude oil – Crude oil has finished an EW a-b-c bounce into the Full Moon Timing Window – this market is being pushed around by high-frequency traders and should follow the market down.
• Dollar index – The DX continues to base below .75 – a breakout to .90 is expected going into September as the ECB is forced to choose a quantitative easing strategy to bail out Italy. A blow off top on the Swiss Franc argues for a large bounce in the dollar soon

   

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

The 8/17-8/18 turning point window could give us a test of last week's lows and then a reversal up on the SPX.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL MID-SEPTEMBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.57 -.04) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – this company is at the verge of a major rerating in price – recent drilling results from the Carlin trend, the JV with AEM at Rattlesnake Hills, and the refocusing of Quinton on the exploration effort are all very positive signs.
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.00 -.15) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.59 -.03) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.6890 +.0839)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKD) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.2750 -.01) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – August 15, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

8/15/11 (Commentary for Monday) Our weekend outlook proved wrong as the ES powered higher and gold rallied beyond the Full Moon Timing Window, however the Wall Street Sentiment Survey gave us a complacent sentiment reading (62% bullish/14% bearish) on 8/12 that argues for caution. Headlines from Europe continue to drive this market and we feel that a "market friendly" band aid is still some days away from Europe. Gold rallied again but the 1-Day Reversal Timing on Thursday suggests an important turn soon. Market volatility is being driven by European bank insolvency and our market is reacting to events and not initiating them. Bonds went parabolic on the latest ZIRP lock plan on the short end of the Treasury – bonds may be finishing a large Wave 2 correction on the weekly chart. The Dollar Index continues to base below .75 but the next ECB policy move (to quantitatively ease) will likely send a rush of capital into the US Dollar and drive it to .90 resistance on the weekly chart.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. We got a momentum low as expected on 8/8 and then a corrective 3-wave rally into the 8/12 turn window that counts as a Wave 4 of C on the daily – we're now looking for a 5^th wave down into the 8/17-8/18 turn window which should lead to a strong reversal up.

 

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold's summer break out to new highs in USD terms has very bullish ramifications. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until August cycle lows before making additional purchases. Gold stocks may have made a major low on 6/16 – 36-wk cycle lows may give us a buying opportunity into mid-August.

 

• Stocks – The ES powered higher after the 8/12 turn window but the pattern of the rally from 8/8 looks corrective. Extreme bullish sentiment from the Wall Street Sentiment Survey (62%/14%) on 8/12 argues for caution.
• Gold – Gold rallied beyond the Full Moon Timing Window – 1-Day Reversal Timing is due on Thursday and may provide the next interval for a top.
• Silver – Silver advanced beyond the Full Moon Timing Window – a sign of strength. The turn window on 8/17-8/18 is the next time window to look for a top.
• Bonds – The bonds went parabolic after the FOMC statement – may be finishing a large Wave 2 rally on the weekly chart. Despite a lousy 30-yr Treasury auction, the chart pattern on the 5-min chart does not rule out higher highs
• Crude oil – Crude oil has finished an EW a-b-c bounce into the Full Moon Timing Window – looking for a turn down.
• Dollar index – The DX continues to base below .75 – a breakout to .90 is expected going into September as the ECB is forced to choose a quantitative easing strategy to bail out Italy.

   

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

The 8/17-8/18 turning point window could give us a test of last week's lows and then a reversal up on the SPX.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL MID-SEPTEMBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.61 +.01) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – this company is at the verge of a major rerating in price – recent drilling results from the Carlin trend, the JV with AEM at Rattlesnake Hills, and the refocusing of Quinton on the exploration effort are all very positive signs.
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.15 +.20) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.62 +.00) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.6051 -.0059)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKD) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.2850 +.052) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

The Weekly JDV Market Timer – August 14, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

8/14/11 (Commentary for Sunday) We're looking for a turn down in the ES to test the lows from last week – a 5^th Wave of C down on the daily. The 8/12 turn window topped a 3-wave corrective bounce from last week – looking for a low in the 8/17-8/18 time window coming up. Gold and silver made a top in the Full Moon Timing Window – looking for the 36-wk cycle low to bottom in the next week or so. Market volatility is being driven by European bank insolvency and our market is reacting to events and not initiating them. Bonds went parabolic on the latest ZIRP lock plan on the short end of the Treasury – bonds may be finishing a large Wave 2 correction on the weekly chart. The Dollar Index continues to base below .75 but the next ECB policy move (to quantitatively ease) will likely send a rush of capital into the US Dollar and drive it to .90 resistance on the weekly chart.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. We got a momentum low as expected on 8/8 and then a corrective 3-wave rally into the 8/12 turn window that counts as a Wave 4 of C on he daily – we're now looking for a 5^th wave down into the 8/17-8/18 turn window which should lead to a strong reversal up.

 

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold's summer break out to new highs in USD terms has very bullish ramifications. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until August cycle lows before making additional purchases. Gold stocks may have made a major low on 6/16 – 36-wk cycle lows may give us a buying opportunity into mid-August.

 

• Stocks – The ES appears to have finished an EW a-b-c bounce from Monday 8/8 into Friday's 8/12 turn window – looking for a 5^th wave down on the daily chart to lower lows by 8/17-8/18.
• Gold – Gold peaked Thursday in the Full Moon Timing Window and is declining impulsively – the 36-wk cycle low should bottom in the next week or so.
• Silver – Silver's bounce looked corrective into the Full Moon Timing Window on 8/12 – looking for a leg down this week.
• Bonds – The bonds went parabolic after the FOMC statement – may be finishing a large Wave 2 rally on the weekly chart. Despite a lousy 30-yr Treasury auction, the chart pattern on the 5-min chart does not rule out higher highs
• Crude oil – Crude oil has finished an EW a-b-c bounce into the Full Moon Timing Window – looking for a turn down.
• Dollar index – The DX continues to base below .75 – a breakout to .90 is expected going into September as the ECB is forced to choose a quantitative easing strategy to bail out Italy.

   

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

The 8/17-8/18 turning point window could give us a test of last week's lows and then a reversal up on the SPX.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL MID-SEPTEMBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.60 +.02) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – this company is at the verge of a major rerating in price – recent drilling results from the Carlin trend, the JV with AEM at Rattlesnake Hills, and the refocusing of Quinton on the exploration effort are all very positive signs.
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.95 +.05) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.62 +.06) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.61 -.013)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKD) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.2330 +.019) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – August 11, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

8/11/11 (Commentary for Thursday) This market is not trading like the 2008 waterfall decline or the 1987 crash – it is being driven by European bank insolvency and our market is reacting to events and not initiating them. The SPX is close to finishing an EW a-b-c correction into the 8/12 turn window - this could be counted as a Wave 4 on the daily chart. Gold made a new high but then pulled back in a 5-wave correction on the 5-min chart – looking for a bounce into the Full Moon Timing Window Friday before a reversal down into 36-wk cycle lows. Bonds went parabolic on the latest ZIRP lock plan on the short end of the Treasury – bonds may be finishing a large Wave 2 correction on the weekly chart. The Dollar Index continues to base below .75 but the next ECB policy move (to quantitatively ease) will likely send a rush of capital into the US Dollar and drive it to .90 resistance on the weekly chart.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. Looking for a momentum low in the 8/8-8/9 turn window and a reversal up for a few days – weakening economic statistics and deteriorating technicals argue for a price low into September.

 

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold's summer break out to new highs in USD terms has very bullish ramifications. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until August cycle lows before making additional purchases. Gold stocks may have made a major low on 6/16 – 36-wk cycle lows may give us a buying opportunity into mid-August.

 

• Stocks – The ES is close to finishing an EW a-b-c bounce from Monday into Friday's 8/12 turn window – looking for a 5^th wave down on the daily chart to lower lows by early next week.
• Gold – Gold declined in an EW 5-wave pattern into Thursday on the 5-min chart – looking for a 3-wave rally into Friday before a turn down into cycle lows.
• Silver – Silver's bounce the past several days looks corrective and it may finish in the Full Moon Timing Window on 8/12.
• Bonds – The bonds went parabolic after the FOMC statement – may be finishing a large Wave 2 rally on the weekly chart. Despite a lousy 30-yr Treasury auction, the chart pattern on the 5-min chart does not rule out higher highs
• Crude oil – Crude oil has finished an EW a-b-c bounce into the Full Moon Timing Window – looking for a turn down.
• Dollar index – The DX continues to base below .75 – a breakout to .90 is expected going into September as the ECB is forced to choose a quantitative easing strategy to bail out Italy.

   

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

The 8/8-8/9 turning point window could give us a MOMENTUM low in the SPX and give us a reversal up for a few days – perhaps into the 8/12 turning point date.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL MID-SEPTEMBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.58 -.03) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – this company is at the verge of a major rerating in price – recent drilling results from the Carlin trend, the JV with AEM at Rattlesnake Hills, and the refocusing of Quinton on the exploration effort are all very positive signs.
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.90 +.08) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.56 -.00) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.623 +.053)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKD) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.2140 -.011) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – August 10, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

8/10/11 (Commentary for Wednesday) Today's price decline on the SPX looks like a B-wave test of Monday's low – we may see a C-wave rally into 8/12 to finish an EW a-b-c correction that could be counted as a Wave 4 on the daily chart. We favor tech stocks on this bounce (AAPL, IBM) because of the historic oversold nature of the Nasdaq on the Monday low. Gold exploded to another new high and appears to be consolidating – holding up into the Full Moon Timing Window on 8/12 is likely before turning down into 36-wk cycle lows. Bonds went parabolic on the latest ZIRP lock plan on the short end of the Treasury – bonds may be finishing a large Wave 2 correction on the weekly chart. The Dollar Index continues to base below .75 but the next ECB policy move (to quantitatively ease) will likely send a rush of capital into the US Dollar and drive it to .90 resistance on the weekly chart.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. Looking for a momentum low in the 8/8-8/9 turn window and a reversal up for a few days – weakening economic statistics and deteriorating technicals argue for a price low into September.

 

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold's summer break out to new highs in USD terms has very bullish ramifications. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until August cycle lows before making additional purchases. Gold stocks may have made a major low on 6/16 – 36-wk cycle lows may give us a buying opportunity into mid-August.

 

• Stocks – The ES appears to have made a MOMENTUM low on Monday especially for the Nasdaq. A tradable bounce should last until the next turn window on 8/12 – this could be Wave 4 of C on the daily chart. Any signs of progress on a European bailout could give us a bounce higher into 8/12.
• Gold – The presence of the Full Moon Timing Window on 8/12 argues for continued volatility and a market that should close the week near the highs of the range.
• Silver – Silver's bounce the past several days looks corrective and it may finish in the Full Moon Timing Window on 8/12.
• Bonds – The bonds went parabolic after the FOMC statement – may be finishing a large Wave 2 rally on the weekly chart.
• Crude oil – Crude oil is declining in a Wave C down on the weekly chart to finish a large EW a-b-c correction from the July 2008 high – a low in the 60s is possible by mid-September. Looking for more bounce into the Full Moon Timing Window on Friday.
• Dollar index – The DX continues to base below .75 – a breakout to .90 is expected going into September as the ECB chooses a quantitative easing strategy to bail out Italy.

   

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

The 8/8-8/9 turning point window could give us a MOMENTUM low in the SPX and give us a reversal up for a few days – perhaps into the 8/12 turning point date.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL MID-SEPTEMBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.61 +.04) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – this company is at the verge of a major rerating in price – recent drilling results from the Carlin trend, the JV with AEM at Rattlesnake Hills, and the refocusing of Quinton on the exploration effort are all very positive signs.
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.82 -.06) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.56 -.01) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.570 +.005)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKD) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.2250 +.025) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – August 9, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

8/9/11 (Commentary for Tuesday) Today's price action appears to have confirmed a MOMENTUM low in the market on Monday and the start of a tradable rally – a bounce into the 8/12 turn date is likely. We favor tech stocks on this bounce (AAPL, IBM) because of the historic oversold nature of the Nasdaq on the Monday low. Gold exploded to a new high and appears to be consolidating – holding up into the Full Moon Timing Window on 8/12 is likely before turning down into 36-wk cycle lows. Bonds went parabolic on the latest ZIRP lock plan on the short end of the Treasury – bonds may be finishing a large Wave 2 correction on the weekly chart. The Dollar Index continues to base below .75 but the next ECB policy move (to quantitatively ease) will likely send a rush of capital into the US Dollar and drive it to .90 resistance on the weekly chart.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. Looking for a momentum low in the 8/8-8/9 turn window and a reversal up for a few days – weakening economic statistics and deteriorating technicals argue for a price low into September.

 

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold's summer break out to new highs in USD terms has very bullish ramifications. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until August cycle lows before making additional purchases. Gold stocks may have made a major low on 6/16 – 36-wk cycle lows may give us a buying opportunity into mid-August.

 

• Stocks – The ES appears to have made a MOMENTUM low especially for the Nasdaq. A tradable bounce should last until the next turn window on 8/12. The 52-wk new high/ new low list was highly washed out again today and a big spike in the Option Premium Ratio argues for a low in the SPX here.
• Gold – Gold exploded higher again today – the Fed's policy statement on setting a ZIRP out to two more years is bullish. The 8/8-8/9 turn window may top gold here but the presence of the Full Moon Timing Window on 8/12 argues for continued volatility and a market that should close the week near the highs of the range.
• Silver – Silver either finished an EW a-b-c zig-zag decline on the hourly or has started a large Wave C decline on the daily chart – the next few days will clue us in.
• Bonds – The bonds went parabolic after the FOMC statement – may be finishing a large Wave 2 rally on the weekly chart.
• Crude oil – Crude oil is declining in a Wave C down on the weekly chart to finish a large EW a-b-c correction from the July 2008 high – a low in the 60s is possible by mid-September. Looking for a bounce into the Full Moon Timing Window on Friday.
• Dollar index – The DX continues to base below .75 – a breakout to .90 is expected going into September as the ECB chooses a quantitative easing strategy to bail out Italy.

   

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

The 8/8-8/9 turning point window could give us a MOMENTUM low in the SPX and give us a reversal up for a few days.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL MID-SEPTEMBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.57 -.01) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – this company is at the verge of a major rerating in price – recent drilling results from the Carlin trend, the JV with AEM at Rattlesnake Hills, and the refocusing of Quinton on the exploration effort are all very positive signs.
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $288 +.25) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.57 +.03) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.5650 -.026)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKD) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.20 +.01) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – August 8, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

8/8/11 (Commentary for Monday) We started the week looking for a "momentum low" in the 8/8-8/9 turn window followed by a trading rally into week's end. We believe that we got the momentum low today on a super-oversold Nasdaq and back-to-back super-high option trading volume. We were looking for a MOMENTUM low in the stock market by Monday/Tuesday and now expect a multi-day rally to unfold. Gold made a minimal 3-wave correction into the timing window for the 36-wk cycle low and reversed up +$60 on news of the USA downgrade and the possibility of ECB doing QE. The market is in a declining phase which should carry into next month – a MOMENTUM low was made today and a large rally should ensue into late August before the PRICE low into early September. Gold and silver could see some wild volatility this week as we traverse the 8/8-8/9 turn window and the Full Moon Timing window at the end of the week. A move to QE by the ECB could light a fire under gold just like the QE2 action by the US Fed. We need to watch the gold/silver ratio and the HUI/gold ratio closely this week – looking for gold shares to outperform gold this fall. The Dollar Index continues to base below .75 – a run to .90 is still possible going into September. A staunch commodity decline into the fall may give the Fed the political cover for a QE3.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. Looking for a momentum low in the 8/8-8/9 turn window and a reversal up for a few days – weakening economic statistics and deteriorating technicals argue for a price low into September.

 

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold's summer break out to new highs in USD terms has very bullish ramifications. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until August cycle lows before making additional purchases. Gold stocks may have made a major low on 6/16 – 36-wk cycle lows may give us a buying opportunity into mid-August.

 

• Stocks – The ES gave us more than a gap-down opening – it was a "gap and go day" with mini-crash numbers on several indicators. Looking for a trading rally to start Tuesday.
• Gold – Gold finished an EW 5-wave move on the 5 min chart and may be ready for a pullback. The 8/8-8/9 turn window and the Full Moon Timing Window on 8/12 argue for a volatile week that should end at the top of the weekly range.
• Silver – Silver got a lift with gold's monster move – looking for a volatile week that should end at weekly highs.
• Bonds – The bonds finished a 3-wave corrective decline and rallied to new highs for the move – the effects of the downgrade got shaken off soon.
• Crude oil – Crude oil is declining in a Wave C down on the weekly chart to finish a large EW a-b-c correction from the July 2008 high – a low in the 60s is possible by mid-September. Looking for a bounce into the Full Moon Timing Window on Friday.
• Dollar index – The DX continues to base below .75 – a breakout to .90 is expected going into September as the ECB chooses a quantitative easing strategy to bail out Italy.

   

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

The 8/8-8/9 turning point window could give us a MOMENTUM low in the SPX and give us a reversal up for a few days.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL MID-SEPTEMBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.58 -.01) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – this company is at the verge of a major rerating in price – recent drilling results from the Carlin trend, the JV with AEM at Rattlesnake Hills, and the refocusing of Quinton on the exploration effort are all very positive signs.
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.63 -.40) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.55 -.04) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.59 -.06)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKD) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.1950 +.0060) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly JDV Market Timer – August 7, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

8/7/11 (Commentary for Sunday) The rally on the ES from Friday appears to be 3-wave corrective – another leg down early Monday is likely. We're looking for a MOMENTUM low in the stock market by Monday/Tuesday after which a multi-day rally should unfold. Gold made a minimal 3-wave correction into the timing window for the 36-wk cycle low and reversed up +$50 on news of the USA downgrade and the possibility of ECB doing QE. The market is in a declining phase which should carry into next month – a MOMENTUM low is close at hand and a large rally should ensue into late August before the PRICE low into early September. Gold and silver could see some wild volatility this week as we traverse the 8/8-8/9 turn window and the Full Moon Timing window at the end of the week. A move to QE by the ECB could light a fire under gold just like the QE2 action by the US Fed. We need to watch the gold/silver ratio and the HUI/gold ratio closely this week – looking for gold shares to outperform gold this fall. The Dollar Index continues to base below .75 – a run to .90 is still possible going into September. A staunch commodity decline into the fall may give the Fed the political cover for a QE3.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. Looking for a momentum low in the 8/8-8/9 turn window and a reversal up for a few days – weakening economic statistics and deteriorating technicals argue for a price low into September.

 

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold's summer break out to new highs in USD terms has very bullish ramifications. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until August cycle lows before making additional purchases. Gold stocks may have made a major low on 6/16 – 36-wk cycle lows may give us a buying opportunity into mid-August.

 

• Stocks – The ES appears to be giving us a 3-wave corrective rally from Friday on the 5-min chart – another leg down Monday morning is possible.
• Gold – Gold is soaring higher on the USA downgrade and the ECB potential move to QE – gold gave us a 3-wave corrective decline close to the 8/8 target for the 36-wk cycle low and implied higher highs. The gold/silver ratio may be breaking down to critical levels. The HUI/gold ratio is finishing an EW 5-wave down move on the daily – this may be bullish for relative outperformance of the HUI. The GDXJ taking out the 6/16 is a potential negative but the GDX is holding far above its 6/16 low and may be giving us a bullish divergence.
• Silver – Silver is reversing higher with gold on the news of the US downgrade and the potential ECB quantitative easing to bail out Italy.
• Bonds – The bonds are getting hit from the USA downgrade from the S&P – just a 3-wave corrective bounce will lead to higher prices.
• Crude oil – Crude oil is declining in a Wave C down on the weekly chart to finish a large EW a-b-c correction from the July 2008 high – a low in the 60s is possible by mid-September.
• Dollar index – The DX continues to base below .75 – a breakout to .90 is expected going into September as the ECB chooses a quantitative easing strategy to bail out Italy.

   

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

The 8/8-8/9 turning point window could give us a MOMENTUM low in the SPX and give us a reversal up for a few days.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL MID-SEPTEMBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.59 -.01) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – this company is at the verge of a major rerating in price – recent drilling results from the Carlin trend, the JV with AEM at Rattlesnake Hills, and the refocusing of Quinton on the exploration effort are all very positive signs.
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.03 +.03) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.59 +.04) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.65 +.03)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKD) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.1950 +.0060) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – August 4, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

8/4/11 (Commentary for Thursday) The late rally on Wednesday was actually a Wave 2 of 3 of C – we got a Wave 3 of 3 drown today. We're looking for a momentum low in the stock market by Monday after which a multi-day rally should unfold. Gold made a short-term peak and declined impulsive – the 36-wk cycle low pressure is taking hold – looking for at least another leg down on the 5 min chart going into Monday. A one-sided sentiment reading on the Wall Street sentiment survey on 7/22 (60% bullish/ 12% bearish) revealed the market to be in a vulnerable sentiment position going into last week. The market is in a declining phase which should carry into next month - a momentum low is close at hand and a large rally should ensue into late August before the price low into early September. Gold and silver got sold as margin calls in crude oil and other markets lead to profit taking – looking for a low around 8/8 for the PM sector. Bonds continued to rally today – the ongoing European banking crisis is driving capital flows to this market and a renewed "deflationary scare" is adding a bid. The Dollar Index is breaking out from short-covering action – a run to .90 is underway. A staunch commodity decline into the fall may give the Fed the political cover for a QE3.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. Looking for a bounce into the 8/3 turn date but only a failed rally – weakening economic statistics and deteriorating technicals argue for a correction into September.

 

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold's summer break out to new highs in USD terms has very bullish ramifications. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until August cycle lows before making additional purchases. Gold stocks may have made a major low on 6/16 – 36-wk cycle lows may give us a buying opportunity into mid-August.

 

• Stocks – The SPX declined in a 3^rd of 3^rd wave pattern – hence the mini-crash we saw today – a momentum low should be in place by 8/8 after which a multi-week rally will ensue. Holding FCX puts, ERY calls and UUP calls.
• Gold – Gold reversed after testing $1680 – looking for the 36-wk cycle low to bottom on 8/8 – a Wave C down of an EW a-b-c correction is due tomorrow.
• Silver – Silver reversed as well and should give us another leg down by Monday.
• Bonds – The bonds got boosted by a flight to quality bid from stocks - deflationary forces seem to be building – flight to quality money from Europe is also washing in.
• Crude oil – Crude oil is declining in a Wave C down on the weekly chart to finish a large EW a-b-c correction from the July 2008 high – a low in the 60s is possible by mid-September.
• Dollar index – The DX is breaking out on short-covering – a rally to .90 is underway – buy on dips.

   

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

Thursday's (8/4) turning point day may be important to several markets – a debt-ceiling settlement rally could peak out around there.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL MID-SEPTEMBER – TIME TARGET FOR MARKET CORRECTION LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.60 -.02) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – this company is at the verge of a major rerating in price – recent drilling results from the Carlin trend, the JV with AEM at Rattlesnake Hills, and the refocusing of Quinton on the exploration effort are all very positive signs.
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.00 -.28) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.55 -.04) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.62 -.11)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKD) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.1890 -.0110) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.