All Star Market Timing

The Weekly JDV Market Timer – July 17, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

7/17/11 (Commentary for Sunday) The ES tested and held support at ES=1300 after 5 consecutive days of a TRIN5 > 10 (very oversold). Back-to-back levels of the ISEE call/put ratio below 70 argue for a strong bounce soon. Just a band-aid resolution of the debt ceiling impasse would give us a strong bounce here. The PM sector may have given us a short-term peak on Friday's Full Moon – looking for a pull back on Monday – just a 3-wave pull back on the 5 min will argue for higher prices going into mid-week. Crude oil gave us a 5^th wave failure on the 5 min but held up into Friday's Full Moon – lower prices into August are likely. The Dollar Index rallied on Bernanke's two step on the QE3 issue – still looking for a rally to .90 into late summer – a staunch commodity decline into the Fall may give the Fed the political cover for a QE3.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting a Fall washout in stocks after from a 60-yr cycle peak in commodities – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. Holding the ES=1300 support level on Friday may allow another leg up in the broad market into late July.

 

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold rallied to new highs invalidating the triangle count. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until August cycle lows before making initial purchases – silver could retrace to the high $20s. Gold stocks may have made a major low on 6/16 – we should get a pull back here after the divergent rally into the Full Moon on Friday.

 

• Stocks – The ES held the 1300 support level and after 5 consecutive days of TRIN5 > 10 and back-to-back call/put ratios below 70 the SPX looks ready to bounce here. The debt ceiling dilemma could be solved by a short-term band aid measure that could give the markets a relief rally – this could happen at any time.
• Gold – Odds are that gold gave us a short-term peak in the Full Moon Timing Window on Friday - a pullback on Monday is likely – a 3-wave corrective pattern on the 5 min chart will imply higher highs by mid-week.
• Silver – Silver wedged out a classic diagonal EW 5^th wave rally into the Full moon on Friday – added SLV puts and ESL calls.
• Bonds – Bonds price pattern looked corrective this week – may imply another rally high is due.
• Crude oil – Crude oil held up into Friday's Full Moon – looking for a pull back.
• Dollar index – Looking for .90 on the Dollar Index by August which will bring some hard selling in stocks and commodities.

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

The PM sector may have given us a short-term peak on Friday's Full Moon. The broad market successfully tested an important support level at ES=1300.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.72 +.04) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – this company is at the verge of a major rating in price – recent drilling results from the Carlin trend, the JV with AEM at Rattlesnake Hills, and the refocusing of Quinton on the exploration effort are all very positive signs.
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.75 +.23) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.58 +.00) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Resource (PCY.V, C$0.72 +.05) - Normal profit taking going on here after a large run up last year. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.17 +.01) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – July 14, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

7/14/11 (Commentary for Thursday) The market action today looked very weak and the EW pattern of the SPX suggests that we entered a possible Wave 3 of C down on the 5 min chart – we may get a wipeout tomorrow on the Full Moon. Gold and silver are making a short-term peak in the Full Moon Timing Window – they may have peaked today – a decline into next week is likely. Crude oil gave us a 5^th wave failure on the 5 min and started to decline hard – lower prices into August are likely. The Dollar Index rallied on Bernanke's two step on the QE3 issue – still looking for a rally to .90 into late summer – a staunch commodity decline into the Fall may give the Fed the political cover for a QE3.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. We may be rolling over into a C-wave down.

 

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold rallied to new highs invalidating the triangle count. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until August cycle lows before making initial purchases – silver could retrace to the high $20s. Gold stocks may have made a major low on 6/16 – bullish divergence here by gold stocks is a positive for the intermediate term.

      

• Stocks – The ES may get a hard sell off on the Full Moon tomorrow – stress tests at European bans may be a trigger.
• Gold – Gold may have peaked today in the Full Moon Timing Window – Starkey Weekly Reversal Timing this week and a Full Moon on Friday argue for a short-term peak here.
• Silver – Silver may have peaked today – should decline in a Wace C down on the daily into August.
• Bonds – Bonds price pattern looked corrective this week – may imply another rally high is due.
• Crude oil – Crude oil gave us a failed 5^th wave rally and then rolled over hard – a decline into August is possible.
• Dollar index – Looking for .90 on the Dollar Index by August which will bring some hard selling in stocks and commodities.

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

There is a July 11-13 turn window for the markets – the HUI may give us a short-term low before a pop into the Full Moon Timing Window on 7/15. Also looking for a short-term low in the SPX in this time window.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.68 -.03) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – this company is at the verge of a major rating in price – recent drilling results from the Carlin trend, the JV with AEM at Rattlesnake Hills, and the refocusing of Quinton on the exploration effort are all very positive signs.
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.52 +.11) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.58 +.00) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Resource (PCY.V, C$0.67 +.14) - Normal profit taking going on here after a large run up last year. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.161 +.000) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – July 13, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

7/13/11 (Commentary for Wednesday) Today's attempted rally on the ES was on light volume and was reversed by day's end. A B-Wave test of the 5/2 high may have been completed on 7/8 with a C-wave down currently underway. Bernanke's talk of a QE3 strengthened gold again – we need another leg up into Friday's Full Moon to finish a 5-wave pattern that should set an important short-term top. Starkey Weekly Reversal Timing and a top in the Full Moon Timing Window on Friday could initiate a correction into August. Crude oil bounced hard and should give us one more rally into Friday. We are in the camp of the "60-yr commodity cycle peak" analyst and expect broad based selling to hit commodity markets into August. The Dollar Index fell back is a large 3-wave correction on the 5-min chart – still looking for a rally to .90 into late summer – a staunch commodity decline into the Fall may give the Fed the political cover for a QE3.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. We may be rolling over into a C-wave down.

 

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold rallied to new highs invalidating the triangle count. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until August cycle lows before making initial purchases – silver could retrace to the high $20s. Gold stocks may have made a major low on 6/16 – bullish divergence here by gold stocks is a positive for the intermediate term.

      

• Stocks – The ES bounced correctively today after the move below 1300 – the broad market may decline into the Full Moon on Friday.
• Gold – Gold exploded to new all time highs – expecting a short-term peak on Friday – Starkey Weekly Reversal Timing this week and a Full Moon on Friday argue for a short-term peak soon.
• Silver – Silver rallied hard in a 3^rd wave up from the 7/12 low – looking for one more rally into a Full Moon peak on Friday.
• Bonds – Bonds controlling pattern is unclear on the 5 min chart – could go either way tomorrow.
• Crude oil – Crude oil may finished a 3-wave correction today into the 7/11-7/12 turn window – looking for one more rally into Friday to complete an EW 5-wave pattern from Tuesday.
• Dollar index – The DX has corrected in a steep 3-wave correction accelerated by Bernanke's comments on a possible QE3 – the DX is back into its trading range but it shouldn't be there long. Looking for .90 on the Dollar Index by August which will bring some hard selling in stocks and commodities. The Euro traded below 1.40 again and appears to be supported by some desperate agencies.

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

There is a July 11-13 turn window for the markets – the HUI may give us a short-term low before a pop into the Full Moon Timing Window on 7/15. Also looking for a short-term low in the SPX in this time window.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.71 +.07) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – this company is at the verge of a major rating in price – recent drilling results from the Carlin trend, the JV with AEM at Rattlesnake Hills, and the refocusing of Quinton on the exploration effort are all very positive signs.
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.41 +.16) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.62 +.01) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Resource (PCY.V, C$0.53 +.02) - Normal profit taking going on here after a large run up last year. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.161 +.001) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – July 12, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

7/12/11 (Commentary for Tuesday) The ES touched 1295 in early trading on Monday and then bounced – tomorrow's action will be key since today's decline was on even heavier volume than Friday's. Gold bounced in the 7/11-7/12 turn window when the April Fed minutes mentioned the possibility of a QE3 – That's a Shocker! Gold tested the 5/2 high but this is a Weekly Reversal Week from Starkey and a top into the Full Moon Timing Window on Friday could lead into a large sell off into August. Crude oil bounced hard and may give us more rally into Friday. Bonds took out their 6/27 high but may make a steep reversal down here if stocks can catch a bid. Our bias is still positive on risk markets going into late July especially if measurable progress is made in the debt ceiling talks. However, we are in the camp of the "60-yr commodity cycle peak" analyst and expect broad based selling to hit commodity markets into August. The Dollar Index fell back and may resume more basing action for the short term before launching a rally to .90 into late summer – a staunch commodity decline into the Fall may give the Fed the political cover for a QE3.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX is making a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high. The 55-day Fibonacci step out day was 6/27 – we got a reversal up that should last until late July before a fierce C-Wave down into August. The NYSE advance/decline is making new highs and argues that the SPX and Nasdaq will follow through to new highs as well.

 

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold appears to be tracing out an EW a-b-c-d-e triangle on the daily charts from the 5/2 high – the rally that started on 7/4 could be counted as a Wave D– we are looking for a bounce into July seasonal highs around the 7/15 Full Moon before descending into cycle lows in August. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until August cycle lows before making initial purchases – silver could retrace to the high $20s. Gold stocks may have made a major low on 6/16 – bullish divergence here by gold stocks is a positive for the intermediate term.

      

• Stocks – The sharp rally from 6/27 may have run the shorts out and left the market more vulnerable to a stiff decline. However, we look at the Friday-Tuesday sell off as just an EW zig-zag pullback into the 7/11-7/13 turn window – an ES decline below yesterday's low on increasing volume will turn us short-term bearish. Back-to-back TRIN5 readings (>10) argue for a rally here into the late July seasonal highs.
• Gold – Gold reversed hard in the 7/11-7/12 turn window and tested the 5/2 high – Weekly Reversal Timing this week and a Full Moon on Friday argue for a short-term peak soon.
• Silver – Silver reversed up with gold with SLW gaining 5% - looking for a top by Friday's Full Moon.
• Bonds – Bonds took out the 6/27 high but may have finished an EW a-b-c bounce which argues for another leg up in stocks.
• Crude oil – Crude oil may have finished a 3-wave correction today into the 7/11-7/12 turn window – we may see one more rally attempt before a big sell off into August.
• Dollar index – The DX took out some looks to the left on the hourly chart but fell back today. Looking for .90 on the Dollar Index by August which will bring some hard selling in stocks and commodities. The Euro traded below 1.40 again and appears to be supported by some desperate agencies.

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

There is a July 11-13 turn window for the markets – the HUI may give us a short-term low before a pop into the Full Moon Timing Window on 7/15. Also looking for a short-term low in the SPX in this time window.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.64 -.00) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – this company is at the verge of a major rating in price – recent drilling results from the Carlin trend, the JV with AEM at Rattlesnake Hills, and the refocusing of Quinton on the exploration effort are all very positive signs.
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.25 +.06) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.61 -.03) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Resource (PCY.V, C$0.51 -.00) - Normal profit taking going on here after a large run up last year. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.16 -.01) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – July 11, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

7/11/11 (Commentary for Monday) The ES appears to have finished and EW a-b-c zig–zag correction from early Friday into the 7/11-7/13 turn window. A Large Divergent Rally in the Option Premium Ratio and a TRIN5 reading > 10 argue for a rally tomorrow but a decline below ES=1310 on strong volume will turn us short-term bearish. Tuesday will be a key market day. Gold rallied but silver diverged – a bounce into the Full Moon Timing Window on 7/15 may top gold's recent rally. Bonds rallied hard and appear to have finished an EW a-b-c correction to the upside – this is short-term bullish for stocks. Oil may have also finished a 3-wave corrective pullback into today's low. Our bias is still positive on risk markets going into late July especially if measurable progress is made in the debt ceiling talks. However, we are in the camp of the "60-yr commodity cycle peak" analyst and expect broad based selling to hit commodity markets into August. The Dollar Index took out some looks to the left today on the hourly chart – though this may be our long sought break out to the upside we still look for more basing till late July before launching a rally to .90 into late summer – a staunch commodity decline into the Fall may give the Fed the political cover for a QE3.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX is making a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high. The 55-day Fibonacci step out day was 6/27 – we got a reversal up that should last until late July before a fierce C-Wave down into August. The NYSE advance/decline is making new highs and argues that the SPX and Nasdaq will follow through to new highs as well.

 

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold appears to be tracing out an EW a-b-c-d-e triangle on the daily charts from the 5/2 high – the rally that started on 7/4 could be counted as a Wave D– we are looking for a bounce into July seasonal highs around the 7/15 Full Moon before descending into cycle lows in August. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until August cycle lows before making initial purchases – silver could retrace to the high $20s. Gold stocks may have made a major low on 6/16 – bullish divergence here by gold stocks is a positive for the intermediate term.

      

• Stocks – Today's selling measured a lot more intense than the pullback on Friday – heavier volume, stronger breath, etc. However, we look at the decline as just an EW a-b-c pullback on the 5 min chart into the 7/11-7/13 turn window. A Large Divergent Rally in the Option Premium Ratio and a Large TRIN5 reading (>10) argue for a rally here into the late July seasonal highs. A decisive break of ES=1310 would turn us short-term bearish.
• Gold – Gold reversed higher on Friday. Gold is tracing out an EW a-b-c-d-e on the daily chart – today silver diverged from gold and argues that Wave D is close to a peak.
• Silver – Silver was sold off hard today on the general commodity selloff – diverging with gold today is a short-term negative for the PM complex – cycle lows in August could take us into the $20s.
• Bonds – Bonds tested the apparent Right Shoulder of a large H&S pattern on 6/27 – today's rally finished an EW a-b-c bounce which argues for another leg up in stocks.
• Crude oil – Crude oil may have finished a 3-wave correction today into the turn window – we may see one more rally attempt before a big sell off into August.
• Dollar index – The DX took out some looks to the left on the hourly chart. Looking for .90 on the Dollar Index by August which will bring some hard selling in stocks and commodities. The Euro traded below 1.40 again and appears to be supported by some desperate agencies.

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

There is a July 11-13 turn window for the markets – the HUI may give us a short-term low before a pop into the Full Moon Timing Window on 7/15. Also looking for a short-term low in the SPX in this time window.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.64 -.01) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – this company is at the verge of a major rating in price – recent drilling results from the Carlin trend, the JV with AEM at Rattlesnake Hills, and the refocusing of Quinton on the exploration effort are all very positive signs.
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.19 -.29) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.64 -.04) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Resource (PCY.V, C$0.54 -.02) - Normal profit taking going on here after a large run up last year. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.1700 -.0015) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

The Weekly JDV Market Timer – July 10, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

7/10/11 (Commentary for Sunday) The NFP jobs report came in much weaker than expected and the SPX gapped down at the open – but the market rallied back to cut losses by the close. Gold reversed sharply higher Friday and held the gains into the close. Bonds gave us a bounce and appear close to finishing an EW a-b-c correction to the upside. Oil sold off hard on Friday after a 10% rally off the June lows. Our bias is still positive on risk markets going into late July especially if measurable progress is made in the debt ceiling talks. However, we are in the camp of the "60-yr commodity cycle peak" analyst and expect broad based selling to hit commodity markets into August. Gold gave us a pullback into Friday and then a reversal up – gold stocks may give us a good trade entry – especially with the Full Moon Timing window on 7/15. Crude oil appears to want to rally more into late July – OIH and XOI stocks should make good trades on a market pull back as well. The Dollar Index may continue to base into late July before launching a rally to .90 into late summer – a staunch commodity decline into the Fall may give the Fed the political cover for a QE3.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX is making a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high. The 55-day Fibonacci step out day was 6/27 – we got a reversal up that should last until late July before a fierce C-Wave down into August. The NYSE advance/decline is making new highs and argues that the SPX and Nasdaq will follow through to new highs as well.

 

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold appears to be tracing out an EW a-b-c-d-e triangle on the daily charts from the 5/2 high – the rally that started on 7/4 could be counted as a Wave D– we are looking for a bounce into July seasonal highs around the 7/15 Full Moon before descending into cycle lows in August. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until August cycle lows before making initial purchases – silver could retrace to the high $20s. Gold stocks may have made a major low on 6/16 – bullish divergence here by gold stocks is a positive for the intermediate term.

      

• Stocks – The selling on Friday's bad NFP jobs report looked muted to us – still looking for another leg up into late July before the next big sell off.
• Gold – Gold reversed higher on Friday. Gold is tracing out an EW a-b-c-d-e on the daily chart – Wave D was kicked off on Friday on the New Moon/solar eclipse.
• Silver – Silver gave us more rally today – we're looking for more rally into late July – cycle lows in August could take us into the $20s.
• Bonds – Bonds may have formed the Right Shoulder of a large H&S pattern on 6/27 – the rally on Friday came close to finishing an EW a-b-c bounce which argues for another leg up in stocks.
• Crude oil – Crude oil declined on Friday – looking for a strong rally into 7/20 – OIH and XOI stocks gave us a buy opportunity on Friday.
• Dollar index – The DX may remain in a sideways range as risk markets bounce into July. Looking for .90 on the Dollar Index by August which will bring some hard selling in stocks and commodities. The Euro appears to be breaking down here again.

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

The 55-Day Fibonacci step out from the 5/2 high for the SPX fell on 6/27 – we got an important reversal up. The New Moon/solar eclipse on July 1 should give us a short-term top. The New Moons in May and June gave us important tops – rallying through the July 1 New Moon would imply a correction of a higher degree and a retest of the 5/2 high by mid-July.

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.65 -.04) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – this company is at the verge of a major rating in price – recent drilling results from the Carlin trend, the JV with AEM at Rattlesnake Hills, and the refocusing of Quinton on the exploration effort are all very positive signs.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.48 -.01) – The Japanese nuclear plant cooling issues caused panic selling today in all things uranium – we are holding for higher prices. Uranium stocks are playing catch up to the rest of the commodity complex. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
• Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.68 +.06) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
• Prophecy Resource (PCY.V, C$0.56 -.01) - Normal profit taking going on here after a large run up last year. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.1715 +.0000) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – July 7, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

7/07/11 (Commentary for Thursday) Many indices appear to be peaking EW 5-wave patterns as we near the release of the NFP job numbers on Friday – a decline may give us an entry into this melt up market. The pattern of any decline will give us clues to the longevity of this market run. Bonds may have given us an important top on 6/27 – but a 3-wave decline on the 5 min chart argues for more upside. Gold gave us another rally today but we're expecting a pullback into Friday – gold stocks may give us a good trade entry – especially with the Full moon Timing window next week. Crude oil appears to want to rally more into late July – OIH and XOI stocks should make good trades on a market pull back as well. The Dollar Index may continue to base into mid-July before launching a rally to .90 into late summer – a staunch commodity decline into the Fall may give the Fed the political cover for a QE3.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX is topping the rally from March 2009. There are four signs of a major top in the making for the stock market: (1) the peaking of the OIH and XOI indices in early April, (2) the out performance of health care and other defensive sectors in April, (3) the bottom of the Dollar Index on April 28, and (4) the intermediate-term top in silver on 4/25 and gold on 5/2. The 55-day Fibonacci step out day was 6/27 – we got a reversal up that could last until mid-July before the next leg down into August. The NYSE advance/decline is making new highs and argues that the SPX and Nasdaq will follow through to new highs as well.

 

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Important intermediate tops were made in gold and silver – silver ($49.20) on 4/25 and gold ($1577) on 5/2. Gold made an important B-Wave top last week ($1559) and we are now getting a fast and furious C-wave down – the $1476 level is key support on Monday – we are looking for a bounce into July seasonal highs around 7/20 before descending into 36-wk cycle lows in August . New buyers of gold and silver should wait until the next 12-wk cycle low around late July/early August before making initial purchases – silver could retrace to the high $20s. Gold stocks may have made a major low on 6/16 – bullish divergence here by gold stocks is a positive for the intermediate term.

      

• Stocks – Many indices are rallying in EW 5-wave patterns as we approach the NFP report on Friday. We would buy weakness in gold stocks on a pullback Friday.
• Gold – Gold rallied again today. Gold is tracing out an EW a-b-c-d-e on the daily chart – Wave D was kicked off on Friday on the New Moon/solar eclipse. Silver stocks weakened late today and may be leading a pull back into the 7/11/11-7/12/11 turn window.
• Silver – Silver gave us more rally today but we still look for a bottom in the mid-20s by August – the 12-wk cycle low is due in late July and the 36-wk cycle low is due in August.
• Bonds – Bonds may have formed the Right Shoulder of a large H&S pattern on 6/27 – but this market traced out a 3-wave corrective pattern on the 5 min chart – looking more upside into Friday.
• Crude oil – Crude oil bounced hard again – looking for a strong rally into 7/20 – buy OIH or XOI stocks on a pull back on Friday.
• Dollar index – The DX may remain in a sideways range as risk markets bounce into July. Looking for .90 on the Dollar Index by August which will bring some hard selling in stocks and commodities. The Euro appears to be breaking down here again.

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

The 55-Day Fibonacci step out from the 5/2 high for the SPX fell on 6/27 – we got an important reversal up. The New Moon/solar eclipse on July 1 should give us a short-term top. The New Moons in May and June gave us important tops – rallying through the July 1 New Moon would imply a correction of a higher degree and a retest of the 5/2 high by mid-July.

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.69 -.00) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – this company is at the verge of a major rating in price – recent drilling results from the Carlin trend, the JV with AEM at Rattlesnake Hills, and the refocusing of Quinton on the exploration effort are all very positive signs.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.49 +.18) – The Japanese nuclear plant cooling issues caused panic selling today in all things uranium – we are holding for higher prices. Uranium stocks are playing catch up to the rest of the commodity complex. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
• Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.62 +.00) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
• Prophecy Resource (PCY.V, C$0.57 -.00) - Normal profit taking going on here after a large run up last year. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.1715 +.0055) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – July 6, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

7/06/11 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX is shrugging off bad news here and powering to rally highs. We're still looking for a pullback into Friday for a chance to add to long positions but this market has been very resilient. Bonds may have given us an important top on 6/27 – but a 3-wave decline on the 5 min chart argues for more upside. Gold gave us another rally today but we're expecting a pull back into Friday – gold stocks may give us a good trade entry. Crude oil appears to want to rally more into late July – OIH and XOI stocks may make good trades. The Dollar Index may continue to base into mid-July before launching a rally to .90 into late summer – a staunch commodity decline into the Fall may give the Fed the political cover for a QE3.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX is topping the rally from March 2009. There are four signs of a major top in the making for the stock market: (1) the peaking of the OIH and XOI indices in early April, (2) the out performance of health care and other defensive sectors in April, (3) the bottom of the Dollar Index on April 28, and (4) the intermediate-term top in silver on 4/25 and gold on 5/2. The 55-day Fibonacci step out day was 6/27 – we got a reversal up that could last until mid-July before the next leg down into August. The NYSE advance/decline is making new highs and argues that the SPX and Nasdaq will follow through to new highs as well.

 

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Important intermediate tops were made in gold and silver – silver ($49.20) on 4/25 and gold ($1577) on 5/2. Gold made an important B-Wave top last week ($1559) and we are now getting a fast and furious C-wave down – the $1476 level is key support on Monday – we are looking for a bounce into July seasonal highs around 7/20 before descending into 36-wk cycle lows in August . New buyers of gold and silver should wait until the next 12-wk cycle low around late July/early August before making initial purchases – silver could retrace to the high $20s. Gold stocks may have made a major low on 6/16 – bullish divergence here by gold stocks is a positive for the intermediate term.

      

• Stocks – The market tried to sell off today but the ES is rallying hard in the overnight market. We would buy weakness into Friday as a trade.
• Gold – Gold and silver rallied hard again today. Gold is tracing out an EW a-b-c-d-e on the daily chart – Wave D was kicked off on Friday on the New Moon/solar eclipse. Strength in silver stocks today was bullish for the entire PM complex.
• Silver – Silver gave us more rally today but we still look for a bottom in the mid-20s by August – the 12-wk cycle low is due in late July and the 36-wk cycle low is due in August.
• Bonds – Bonds may have formed the Right Shoulder of a large H&S pattern on 6/27 – but this market traced out a 3-wave corrective pattern on the 5 min chart – looking more upside into Friday.
• Crude oil – Crude oil bounced hard into the New Moon/solar eclipse – looking for a strong rally into 7/20.
• Dollar index – The DX may remain in a sideways range as risk markets bounce into July. Looking for .90 on the Dollar Index by August which will bring some hard selling in stocks and commodities. The Euro appears to be breaking down here again.

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

The 55-Day Fibonacci step out from the 5/2 high for the SPX fell on 6/27 – we got an important reversal up. The New Moon/solar eclipse on July 1 should give us a short-term top. The New Moons in May and June gave us important tops – rallying through the July 1 New Moon would imply a correction of a higher degree and a retest of the 5/2 high by mid-July.

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.65 -.04) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – this company is at the verge of a major rating in price – recent drilling results from the Carlin trend, the JV with AEM at Rattlesnake Hills, and the refocusing of Quinton on the exploration effort are all very positive signs.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.31 +.01) – The Japanese nuclear plant cooling issues caused panic selling today in all things uranium – we are holding for higher prices. Uranium stocks are playing catch up to the rest of the commodity complex. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
• Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.59 +.07) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
• Prophecy Resource (PCY.V, C$0.57 -.00) - Normal profit taking going on here after a large run up last year. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.1660 +.0160) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – July 5, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

7/05/11 (Commentary for Tuesday) The market held up impressively today as the market worked off its overbought condition. Today's action, holding up after the passing of the New Moon, argues for higher prices into mid-July. We're looking for a pullback into Friday for a chance to add to long positions. The Option Premium Ratio has given us five consecutive declines from above 1.00 – we're confident of a pullback before Monday. Bonds may have given us an important top on 6/27 – after a 5-wave decline on the hourly we are inclined to short 3-wave corrective rallies on the 5-minute chart. Gold gave us a big rally today – we favor gold stocks over the metal at this juncture. Crude oil appears to want to rally more into late July – OIH and XOI stocks may make good trades. The Dollar Index may continue to base into mid-July before launching a rally to .90 into late summer – a staunch commodity decline into the Fall may give the Fed the political cover for a QE3.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX is topping the rally from March 2009. There are four signs of a major top in the making for the stock market: (1) the peaking of the OIH and XOI indices in early April, (2) the out performance of health care and other defensive sectors in April, (3) the bottom of the Dollar Index on April 28, and (4) the intermediate-term top in silver on 4/25 and gold on 5/2. The 55-day Fibonacci step out day was 6/27 – we got a reversal up that could last until mid-July before the next leg down into August. The NYSE advance/decline is making new highs and argues that the SPX and Nasdaq will follow through to new highs as well.

 

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Important intermediate tops were made in gold and silver – silver ($49.20) on 4/25 and gold ($1577) on 5/2. Gold made an important B-Wave top last week ($1559) and we are now getting a fast and furious C-wave down – the $1476 level is key support on Monday – we are looking for a bounce into July seasonal highs around 7/20 before descending into 36-wk cycle lows in August . New buyers of gold and silver should wait until the next 12-wk cycle low around late July/early August before making initial purchases – silver could retrace to the high $20s. Gold stocks may have made a major low on 6/16 – bullish divergence here by gold stocks is a positive for the intermediate term.

      

• Stocks – The indices held up well today as the market internally corrected. A 5^th straight decline in the Option Premium Ratio does argue for a pullback by Monday. Our gut says that the job numbers on Friday will disappoint and give us a buying opportunity for another leg up.
• Gold – Gold and silver rallied hard today. Bullish divergence for the HUI stocks is positive for this rally.
• Silver – Silver gave us a steep rally today but we still look for a bottom in the mid-20s by August – the 12-wk cycle low is due in late July and the 36-wk cycle low is due in August.
• Bonds – Bonds may have formed the Right Shoulder of a large H&S pattern on 6/27 – this market appears to be sub-dividing down in an aggressive way. The end of QE2 and "debt-ceiling politics" could conspire to give us quite a break here – inclined to short 3-wave corrective rallies.
• Crude oil – Crude oil bounced hard into the New Moon/solar eclipse – looking for a strong rally into 7/20.
• Dollar index – The DX may remain in a sideways range as risk markets bounce into July. Looking for .90 on the Dollar Index by August which will bring some hard selling in stocks and commodities. The Euro appears to be breaking down here again.

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

The 55-Day Fibonacci step out from the 5/2 high for the SPX fell on 6/27 – we got an important reversal up. The New Moon/solar eclipse on July 1 should give us a short-term top. The New Moons in May and June gave us important tops – rallying through the July 1 New Moon would imply a correction of a higher degree and a retest of the 5/2 high by mid-July.

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.69 +.01) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – this company is at the verge of a major rating in price – recent drilling results from the Carlin trend, the JV with AEM at Rattlesnake Hills, and the refocusing of Quinton on the exploration effort are all very positive signs.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.30 +.19) – The Japanese nuclear plant cooling issues caused panic selling today in all things uranium – we are holding for higher prices. Uranium stocks are playing catch up to the rest of the commodity complex. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
• Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.52 -.04) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
• Prophecy Resource (PCY.V, C$0.57 -.00) - Normal profit taking going on here after a large run up last year. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.1500 -.00) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly JDV Market Timer – July 4, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

7/04/11 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX gave us a strong bounce into the New Moon/solar eclipse on July 1 – looking for a pull back here. The Option Premium Ratio has given us four consecutive declines from above 1.00 – A SELL SIGNAL. The TRIN5 hit the very overbought level of 3.16 which should give us a short-term pull market back, but the momentum impulse of the rally we saw last week should give us higher prices in the next two weeks - a B-Wave test of the highs by 7/20. Bonds may have given us an important top on 6/27 – after a 5-wave decline on the hourly we are inclined to short 3-wave corrective rallies on the 5-minute chart. After a stiff decline into the New Moon/solar eclipse, gold is due a bounce. Crude oil gave us an EW a-b-c bounce into previous 4^th wave resistance – looking for setup to sell. The Dollar Index may continue to base into mid-July before launching a rally to .90 into late summer – a staunch commodity decline into the Fall may give the Fed the political cover for a QE3.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX is topping the rally from March 2009. There are four signs of a major top in the making for the stock market: (1) the peaking of the OIH and XOI indices in early April, (2) the out performance of health care and other defensive sectors in April, (3) the bottom of the Dollar Index on April 28, and (4) the intermediate-term top in silver on 4/25 and gold on 5/2. The 55-day Fibonacci step out day was 6/27 – we got a reversal up that could last until mid-July before the next leg down into August.

 

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Important intermediate tops were made in gold and silver – silver ($49.20) on 4/25 and gold ($1577) on 5/2. Gold made an important B-Wave top last week ($1559) and we are now getting a fast and furious C-wave down – the $1476 level is key support on Monday – we are looking for a bounce into July seasonal highs around 7/20 before descending into 36-wk cycle lows in August . New buyers of gold and silver should wait until the next 12-wk cycle low around late July/early August before making initial purchases – silver could retrace to the high $20s. Gold stocks may have made a major low on 6/16 – bullish divergence here by gold stocks is a positive for the intermediate term.

      

• Stocks – The New Moon/solar eclipse on 7/1 should give us a correction on Tuesday. Four consecutive declines in the Option Premium Ratio (from 1.03 to .72) argue for a pull back on Tuesday and the super-overbought TRIN5 reading of 3.16 argues for a correction as well.
• Gold – The New Moon/solar eclipse reversed gold to the upside Monday but this market looks to be in a trading range until the August cycle low. Positive divergence in the HUI is a positive for the PM sector and 6/16 may have marked an important low for gold mining stocks.
• Silver – Silver should bottom in the mid-20s by August – the 12-wk cycle low is due in late July and the 36-wk cycle low is due in August.
• Bonds – Bonds may have formed the Right Shoulder of a large H&S pattern on 6/27 – this market appears to be sub-dividing down in an aggressive way. The end of QE2 and "debt-ceiling politics" could conspire to give us quite a break here – inclined to short 3-wave corrective rallies.
• Crude oil – Crude oil bounced hard into the New Moon/solar eclipse – should see a pull back on Tuesday. A decline to $65 is possible by Aug/Sept.
• Dollar index – The DX may remain in a sideways range as risk markets bounce into July. Looking for .90 on the Dollar Index by August which will bring some hard selling in stocks and commodities. The Euro is looking toppy here.

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

The 55-Day Fibonacci step out from the 5/2 high for the SPX fell on 6/27 – we got an important reversal up. The New Moon/solar eclipse on July 1 should give us a short-term top. The New Moons in May and June gave us important tops – rallying through the July 1 New Moon would imply a correction of a higher degree and a retest of the 5/2 high by mid-July.

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.68 +.02) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – this company is at the verge of a major rating in price – recent drilling results from the Carlin trend, the JV with AEM at Rattlesnake Hills, and the refocusing of Quinton on the exploration effort are all very positive signs.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.11 +.05) – The Japanese nuclear plant cooling issues caused panic selling today in all things uranium – we are holding for higher prices. Uranium stocks are playing catch up to the rest of the commodity complex. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
• Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.56 +.05) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
• Prophecy Resource (PCY.V, C$0.57 -.03) - Normal profit taking going on here after a large run up last year. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.1500 -.00) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.