All Star Market Timing

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - July 31, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

7/31/11 (Commentary for Sunday) The tentative debt-ceiling should give us a fierce SPX bounce but deteriorating fundamentals and technicals argue for a larger correction into September. A one-sided sentiment reading on the Wall Street sentiment survey on 7/22 (60% bullish/ 12% bearish) revealed the market to be in a vulnerable sentiment position going into last week. At this point we are inclined to short any "debt ceiling agreement" rally here and believe that a decline has started which should carry into the first half of September. The ES may be in a 3^rd wave of C down from the 7/8 peak. Gold and silver should feel downward pressure from the 36-wk cycle low this week – looking for a low around 8/8 for the PM sector. A strong SPX market correction is likely into August and September – we wouldn't chase tech stocks here because of the negative seasonal from late July through September. Our take on the bonds was all wrong but we feel that bond strength has more to do with the rapidly weakening US economy than the debt-ceiling drama. The Dollar Index is correcting the 5-wave rally last week on the 5 min chart – a run to .90 should get going after a few more days of basing action. A staunch commodity decline into the Fall may give the Fed the political cover for a QE3.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. Looking for a bounce into the 8/3 turn date but only a failed rally – weakening economic statistics and deteriorating technicals argue for a correction into September.

 

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold's summer break out to new highs in USD terms has very bullish ramifications. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until August cycle lows before making additional purchases. Gold stocks may have made a major low on 6/16 – 36-wk cycle lows may give us a buying opportunity into mid-August.

 

• Stocks – The market is heavily oversold at a McClellan Oscillator reading of -258. Looking for a bounce into the 8/3 turn date. The debt-ceiling settlement should give us a gap up on Monday.
• Gold – Gold spiked into the New Moon Timing window on Friday – looking for a pull back into the 36-wk cycle low due around 8/8.
• Silver – Gold and silver bounced into the New Moon Timing Window on Friday – looking for the 36-wk cycle low to weigh heavy on the PM sector this week.
• Bonds – The bonds rallied big Friday – this market is not worried about default – probably focused on weakening US economy. Should pull back with the debt-ceiling agreement.
• Crude oil – After an EW 5-wave down move on the hourly, crude oil should bounce with the SPX into 8/3.
• Dollar index – The DX is falling back overnight Sunday on news of a tentative debt-ceiling settlement – look for more basing action going into 8/3.

   

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

Thursday's (8/3) turning point day may be important to several markets – a debt-ceiling settlement rally could peak out around there.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.65 +.02) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – this company is at the verge of a major rerating in price – recent drilling results from the Carlin trend, the JV with AEM at Rattlesnake Hills, and the refocusing of Quinton on the exploration effort are all very positive signs.
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.26 -.16) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.63 +.06) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.6650 -.0447)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKD) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.19 -.0150) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – July 28, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

7/28/11 (Commentary for Thursday) The attempted bounce in the SPX was weak with tepid breadth and leaves open the possibility of another leg down. A one-sided sentiment reading on the Wall Street sentiment survey on 7/22 (60% bullish/ 12% bearish) revealed the market to be in a vulnerable sentiment position going into this week. At this point we are inclined to short any "debt ceiling agreement" rally and believe that a decline has started which should carry into the first half of September. The ES may be in a 3^rd wave of C down from the 7/8 peak. Gold spiked up to hit our $1630 short-term price target and reversed down to confirm Weekly Reversal Timing. The 36-wk cycle low should ideally bottom around 8/8 for the PM sector. A strong SPX market correction is likely into August and September – we wouldn't chase tech stocks here because of the negative seasonal from late July through September. We think that the likelihood of a US debt downgrade from AAA to AA puts the bond market in a vulnerable position. The Dollar Index rallied hard and appears like it wants to go higher – a run to .90 is likely going into September. A staunch commodity decline into the Fall may give the Fed the political cover for a QE3.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. The ES=1350 level was tested and rejected in the turning point window last week – looking for a decline to retest ES=1250. The market is oversold but a mini-crash could result if the debt ceiling fails to get raised as advertised.

 

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold's summer break out to new highs in USD terms has very bullish ramifications. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until August cycle lows before making additional purchases. Gold stocks may have made a major low on 6/16 – 36-wk cycle lows may give us a buying opportunity into mid-August.

 

• Stocks – The ES declined in 5-waves into this morning but only bounced correctively. The market is oversold here but there is complacency in the air. The ES may be declining in a Wave 3 of C on the daily chart which could run into mid-September and be sharp and scary. We plan to fade a "debt settlement rally".
• Gold – Gold declined in an EW zig-zag correction on the 5-min and bounced - a pull back into the 36-wk cycle low is ideally due around 8/8 or so. A bounce into tomorrow should be shorted – tomorrow is a Merriman turn date.
• Silver – Silver's bounce was weaker than gold's today – we plan to short a rally into tomorrow. Looking for a cycle low around 8/8
• Bonds – The bonds look vulnerable to us here. A USA Treasury debt downgrade is a possibility Friday if a lackluster deficit bill is passed – a debt downgrade could cost the US gov't an additional $70-80B a year in higher interest rate costs.
• Crude oil – Crude oil may be sub-dividing down in a substantial correction.
• Dollar index – The DX rallied hard and may have started the expected bounce to .90 – a confirmed EW 5-wave rally on the 5 min chart may be the start of a large bounce.

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

The 7/20-7/22 turning point window may top the SPX and crude oil – watch for potential reversals down on Monday.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.63 -.00) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – this company is at the verge of a major rerating in price – recent drilling results from the Carlin trend, the JV with AEM at Rattlesnake Hills, and the refocusing of Quinton on the exploration effort are all very positive signs.
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.52 +.10) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.57 -.02) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.7220 -.0360)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKD) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.2050 -.0084) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – July 27, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

7/27/11 (Commentary for Wednesday) We have a lot of tension on the tape here in several markets – clearly market players are placing bets for various contingencies leading up to the 8/2 debt ceiling deadline. A one-sided sentiment reading on the Wall Street sentiment survey on 7/22 (60% bullish/ 12% bearish) revealed the market to be in a vulnerable position going into this week. At this point we are inclined to short any "debt ceiling agreement" rally and believe that a decline has started which should carry into the first half of September. Gold spiked up to hit our $1630 short-term price target and reversed down to confirm Weekly Reversal Timing. The 36-wk cycle low should ideally bottom around 8/8 for the PM sector. A strong SPX market correction is likely into August and September – we wouldn't chase tech stocks here because of the negative seasonal from late July through September. We think that the likelihood of a US debt downgrade from AAA to AA puts the bond market in a vulnerable position. The Dollar Index rallied hard and appears like it wants to go higher – a run to .90 is likely going into September. A staunch commodity decline into the Fall may give the Fed the political cover for a QE3.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. The ES=1350 level was tested and rejected in the turning point window last week – looking for a decline to retest ES=1250.

 

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold's summer break out to new highs in USD terms has very bullish ramifications. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until August cycle lows before making additional purchases. Gold stocks may have made a major low on 6/16 – 36-wk cycle lows may give us a buying opportunity into mid-August.

 

• Stocks – The ES tested and failed at 1350 in the 7/20-7/22 turn window and turned down hard into today – today's decline was on heavy volume. The ES may be declining in a Wave 3 of C on the daily chart which could run into mid-September. We plan to fade a "debt settlement rally".
• Gold – Gold peaked around $1630 in our turn window and confirmed Weekly Reversal Timing to the downside - a pull back into the 36-wk cycle low is ideally due around 8/8 or so.
• Silver – Weekly Reversal Timing is due this week – we took out last week's high and reversed down today. Just a corrective pull back into the 36-wk cycle low in early August will suggest a move to $45 by Labor Day
• Bonds – The bonds look vulnerable to us here. A USA Treasury debt downgrade is a possibility Friday if a lackluster deficit bill is passed – a debt downgrade could cost the US gov't an additional $70-80B a year in higher interest rate costs.
• Crude oil – Crude oil plunged hard today and may be joining a broader commodity sell off.
• Dollar index – The DX rallied hard and may have started the expected bounce to .90 – a confirmed EW 5-wave rally on the 5 min chart will be a start.

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

The 7/20-7/22 turning point window may top the SPX and crude oil – watch for potential reversals down on Monday.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.63 -.04) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – this company is at the verge of a major rerating in price – recent drilling results from the Carlin trend, the JV with AEM at Rattlesnake Hills, and the refocusing of Quinton on the exploration effort are all very positive signs.
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.42 -.23) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.59 -.05) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.7220 -.0360)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKD) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.2134 +.0122) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – July 26, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

7/26/11 (Commentary for Tuesday) We have a lot of tension on the tape here in several markets – clearly market players are placing bets for various contingencies leading up to the 8/2 debt ceiling deadline. Our clearest indication is for a short-term top in gold in the $1630 area followed by a reversal down – this may equate with a short, sharp market rally that will get reversed down into August/Sept. The TRIN5 posted another overbought reading of 4.33 which suggests more weakness tomorrow. This week is Weekly Reversal Timing for gold and we have a reversal window from 7/25-7/28 – looking for the top by Thursday. A strong SPX market correction is likely into August and September – we wouldn't chase tech stocks here because of the negative seasonal from late July through September but stocks like IBM, AAPL, BRCK and AMZN are giving us some great earnings surprises. The 36-wk cycle low for the PM sector is due around 8/1 and silver may be especially vulnerable to a general commodity decline in August. The Dollar Index broke down out of its triangle and may be retesting the early May lows – still looking for a rally to .90 into September but this view is taking some heat – a staunch commodity decline into the Fall may give the Fed the political cover for a QE3.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. The ES=1350 level was tested and rejected in the turning point window – looking for a decline Monday.

 

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold's summer break out to new highs in USD terms has very bullish ramifications. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until August cycle lows before making additional purchases. Gold stocks may have made a major low on 6/16 – a partial retracement of the rally into July should be bought.

 

• Stocks – The ES tested and failed at 1350 in the 7/20-7/22 turn window and turned down Monday. A Large Divergent Rally in the Option Premium Ratio argues for some kind of bounce soon.
• Gold – A move to $1630 is possible this week which has Weekly Reversal Timing – a short-term peak is due by 7/28 - a pull back into the 36-wk cycle low is ideally due around 8/8 or so.
• Silver – Weekly Reversal Timing is due this week – we took out last week's high and reversed down today. Just a corrective pull back into the 36-wk cycle low in early August will suggest a move to $45 by Labor Day
• Bonds – The bonds appear to be weakening here. A USA Treasury debt downgrade is a possibility Friday if a lackluster deficit bill is passed – a debt downgrade could cost the US gov't an additional $70-80B a year in higher interest rate costs.
• Crude oil – Crude oil took out Friday's high in the 7/20-7/22 turning point window and the OIH continues to rally. Standing aside shorts here.
• Dollar index – The DX broke down out of a triangle formation on the daily chart – a test of the May lows is underway. We allowed for a test of the 5/2 low in the late July/early August timeframe but a total break beneath that low will change our picture and suggest a PM rally into mid-August as suggested by Ross Clark.

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

The 7/20-7/22 turning point window may top the SPX and crude oil – watch for potential reversals down on Monday.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.67 -.01) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – this company is at the verge of a major rerating in price – recent drilling results from the Carlin trend, the JV with AEM at Rattlesnake Hills, and the refocusing of Quinton on the exploration effort are all very positive signs.
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.65 +.07) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.64 -.02) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.7580 -.0090) BUY WITH BOTH HANDS – The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKD) has lit a fire under this stock. In fact, the market cap of PNIKD has soared so much in just five days that PRPCF (45% owner of PNIKD) now looks dramatically undervalued and a takeover target. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.2012 -.0058) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – July 25, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

7/25/11 (Commentary for Monday) The ES tested and failed 1350 in the 7/20-7/22 turning point window and we got more decline today. However, the market look mixed as the NQ took out Friday's high as tech earnings came in strong. The TRIN5 posted an overbought reading of 4.11 which suggests more weakness tomorrow. Gold hit $1624 early Monday and then gave us a sideways correction for most of the day – a thrust up to $1630 is expected before a reversal down – this week is Weekly Reversal Timing and we have a reversal window from 7/25-7/28. We may have started a market decline into early September. Gold gave us a 5^th wave thrust on the 5 min chart – a target of $1630 is possible going into Monday. A strong SPX market correction is likely into August and September – we wouldn't chase tech stocks here because of the negative seasonal from late July through September. The 36-wk cycle low for the PM sector is due around 8/1 and silver may be especially vulnerable to a general commodity decline in August. The Dollar Index broke down out of its triangle and may be retesting the early May lows – still looking for a rally to .90 into September but this view is taking some heat – a staunch commodity decline into the Fall may give the Fed the political cover for a QE3.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. The ES=1350 level was tested and rejected in the turning point window – looking for a decline Monday.

 

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold's summer break out to new highs in USD terms has very bullish ramifications. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until August cycle lows before making additional purchases. Gold stocks may have made a major low on 6/16 – a partial retracement of the rally into July should be bought.

 

• Stocks – The ES tested and failed at 1350 in the 7/20-7/22 turn window and turned down today. A very overbought TRIN5 (4.11) argues for more pull back Tuesday.
• Gold – A move to $1630 is possible this week which has Weekly Reversal Timing – a short-term peak is due this week - a pull back into the 36-wk cycle low is ideally due around 8/1.
• Silver – Weekly Reversal Timing is due this week – we took out last week's high and reversed down today. Just a small pull back into the 36-wk cycle low in early August will suggest a move to $45 by Labor Day
• Bonds – The bonds appear to be weakening here. A USA Treasury debt downgrade is a possibility Friday if a lackluster deficit bill is passed.
• Crude oil – Looking for the 7/20-7/22 turn window to turn crude oil down but a declining DX is giving support.
• Dollar index – The DX broke down out of a triangle formation on the daily chart – a test of the May lows is underway. We allowed for a test of the 5/2 low in the late July/early August timeframe but a total break beneath that low will change our picture and suggest a PM rally into mid-August as suggested by Ross Clark.

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

The 7/20-7/22 turning point window may top the SPX and crude oil – watch for potential reversals down on Monday.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.68 -.01) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – this company is at the verge of a major rerating in price – recent drilling results from the Carlin trend, the JV with AEM at Rattlesnake Hills, and the refocusing of Quinton on the exploration effort are all very positive signs.
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.58 -.15) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.66 +.01) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.7670 -.2530) BUY WITH BOTH HANDS – The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKD) has lit a fire under this stock. In fact, the market cap of PNIKD has soared so much in just five days that PRPCF (45% owner of PNIKD) now looks dramatically undervalued and a takeover target. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.21 +.00) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly JDV Market Timer – July 24, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

7/24/11 (Commentary for Sunday) The ES tested and failed 1350 in the 7/20-7/22 turning point window – more decline on Monday is expected – taking out the 7/8 high will have bullish implications. We may have started a market decline into early September. Gold gave us a 5^th wave thrust on the 5 min chart – a target of $1630 is possible going into Monday. Our target at the start of the year was $1580-$1630 and the $1630 target could be met before Weekly Reversal Timing sets in next week. A strong market correction is likely into August and September – we wouldn't chase tech stocks here because of the negative seasonal from late July through September. The 36-wk cycle low for the PM sector is due around 8/1 and silver may be especially vulnerable to a general commodity decline in August. The Dollar Index broke down out of its triangle and may be retesting the early May lows – still looking for a rally to .90 into September but this view is taking some heat – a staunch commodity decline into the Fall may give the Fed the political cover for a QE3.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. The ES=1350 level was tested and rejected in the turning point window – looking for a decline Monday.

 

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold's summer break out to new highs in USD terms has very bullish ramifications. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until August cycle lows before making additional purchases. Gold stocks may have made a major low on 6/16 – a partial retracement of the rally into July should be bought.

 

• Stocks – The ES tested and failed at 1350 in the 7/20-7/22 turn window – looking for more decline on Monday.
• Gold – A move to $1630 is possible this week which has Weekly Reversal Timing – a short-term peak is due this week - a pull back into the 36-wk cycle low is ideally due around 8/1.
• Silver – Weekly Reversal Timing is due this week – Taking out last week's high and reversing down on the close will be short-term bearish. Just a small pull back into the 36-wk cycle low in early August will suggest a move to $45 by Labor Day
• Bonds – The bonds appear to have finished an EW a-b-c decline on the 5 min chart.
• Crude oil – Looking for the 7/20-7/22 turn window to turn crude oil down for the short term.
• Dollar index – The DX broke down out of a triangle formation on the daily chart – a test of the May lows is underway. We allowed for a test of the 5/2 low in the DX – a total break beneath that low will change our picture and suggest a rally into mid-August as suggested by Ross Clark.

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

The 7/20-7/22 turning point window may top the SPX and crude oil – watch for potential reversals down on Monday.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.69 +.02) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – this company is at the verge of a major rerating in price – recent drilling results from the Carlin trend, the JV with AEM at Rattlesnake Hills, and the refocusing of Quinton on the exploration effort are all very positive signs.
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.73 +.15) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.65 +.04) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $1.02 +.14) BUY WITH BOTH HANDS – The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKD) has lit a fire under this stock. In fact, the market cap of PNIKD has soared so much in just five days that PRPCF (45% owner of PNIKD) now looks dramatically undervalued and a takeover target. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.21 +.02) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – July 21, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

7/21/11 (Commentary for Thursday) The ES climbed above 1340 on good volume with the financial stocks on board. We are looking for a test of 1350 by Monday and then a reversal down – taking out the 7/8 high will have bullish implications. Gold just gave us a 4^th wave decline and appears to be looking to move higher in a 5^th wave. Our target at the start of the year was $1580-$1630 and the $1630 target could be met before Weekly Reversal Timing sets in next week. Strong earnings news and positive budget news from Washington could propel stocks higher into the 7/25 turn window but a strong correction is likely into August and September – we wouldn't chase tech stocks here because of the negative seasonal from late July through September. The 36-wk cycle low for the PM sector is due around 8/1 and silver may be especially vulnerable to a general commodity decline in August. The Dollar Index broke down out of its triangle and may be retesting the early May lows – still looking for a rally to .90 into September but this view is taking some heat – a staunch commodity decline into the Fall may give the Fed the political cover for a QE3.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. The ES=1300 support level did hold Monday on a closing basis – looking for a rally to ES~1350 or so by 7/25 before a turn down.

 

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold's summer break out to new highs in USD terms has very bullish ramifications. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until August cycle lows before making additional purchases. Gold stocks may have made a major low on 6/16 – a partial retracement of the rally into July should be bought.

 

• Stocks – Had a strong move today on volume to above 1340. A test of ES~1350 by 7/25 is likely – taking out the 7/8 high implies a test of 1370. Seasonal weakness in tech stocks should weigh on this market soon.
• Gold – Gold finished a 4^th wave and needs a 5^th wave up into next week – a move to $1630 is possible into next week which has Weekly Reversal Timing - a pull back into the 36-wk cycle low is ideally due around 8/1.
• Silver – Silver finished a 4^th wave and needs a 5^th wave to new rally highs – our gut says that silver will be hit hard by strong commodity selling in August/September – a 36-wk cycle low is due around 8/1. Just a small pull back into the 36-wk cycle low in early August will suggest a move to $45 by Labor Day
• Bonds – The bonds appear to have finished an EW a-b-c decline on the 5 min chart.
• Crude oil – Looking for a breakdown by next week's turn window.
• Dollar index – The DX broke down out of a triangle formation on the daily chart – a test of the May lows is underway.

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

Oil and grains rolled over Monday after the Full Moon Timing but the PM sector continued to rally.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.67 -.01) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – this company is at the verge of a major rerating in price – recent drilling results from the Carlin trend, the JV with AEM at Rattlesnake Hills, and the refocusing of Quinton on the exploration effort are all very positive signs.
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.58 -.09) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.61 -.01) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.88 +.12) BUY WITH BOTH HANDS – The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKD) has lit a fire under this stock. In fact, the market cap of PNIKD has soared so much in just five days that PRPCF (45% owner of PNIKD) now looks dramatically undervalued and a takeover target. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.1900 +.0150) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – July 20, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

7/20/11 (Commentary for Wednesday) The market retreated slightly after AAPL's earning explosion. The small pull back today was met with "euphoric call buying" as illustrated by an ISEE call/put ratio of 202 – this is a warming of a market reversal. Gold just gave us a 3-wave decline and appears to be looking to move higher. Our target at the start of the year was $1580-$1630 and the $1630 target could be met before Weekly Reversal Timing sets in next week. A test of ES=1350 looks doable by 7/25 but an "island reversal" pattern in the ISEE call/put ratio argues for a reversal down. Strong earnings news and positive budget news from Washington could propel stocks higher into the 7/25 turn window but a strong correction is likely into August and September – we wouldn't chase tech stocks here because of the negative seasonal from late July through September. The 36-wk cycle low for the PMs is due around 8/1 and silver may be especially vulnerable to a general commodity decline in August. The Dollar Index closed below .75 in more basing action – still looking for a rally to .90 into September – a staunch commodity decline into the Fall may give the Fed the political cover for a QE3.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. The ES=1300 support level did hold Monday on a closing basis – looking for a rally to ES~1350 or so by 7/25 before a turn down.

 

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold rallied to a new high today before reversing down – a seasonal high may have been made. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until August cycle lows before making initial purchases – silver could retrace to the high $20s. Gold stocks may have made a major low on 6/16 – a partial retracement of the rally into July should be bought.

 

• Stocks – A move to ES~1350 by 7/25 is possible but an island reversal in the Option Premium Ratio and a "euphoric" ISEE call/put ratio of 202 argues for a reversal down tomorrow.
• Gold – Gold reversed up after just a 3-wave corrective decline – a move to $1630 is possible into next week which has Weekly Reversal Timing - a pull back into the 36-wk cycle low is due around 8/1.
• Silver – Silver reversed up after just a corrective decline on the 5 min chart – our gut says that silver will be hit hard by strong commodity selling in August/September – a 36-wk cycle low is due around 8/1.
• Bonds – The bonds sold off today – debt ceiling politics could leave a hangover to this market.
• Crude oil – Looking for a breakdown by next week's turn window.
• Dollar index – Looking for .90 on the Dollar Index by September which will bring some hard selling in stocks and commodities.

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

Oil and grains rolled over Monday after the Full Moon Timing but the PM sector continued to rally.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.67 -.01) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – this company is at the verge of a major rating in price – recent drilling results from the Carlin trend, the JV with AEM at Rattlesnake Hills, and the refocusing of Quinton on the exploration effort are all very positive signs.
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.67 -.05) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.62 +.08) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Resource (PCY.V, C$0.72 -.01) - Normal profit taking going on here after a large run up last year. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.1750 +.0030) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – July 19, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

7/19/11 (Commentary for Tuesday) Obama's press conference got the market soaring in the wake of solid earnings from IBM. Capital flowed from gold/silver back to stocks on the promise of a new "Senate Deficit Reduction Plan". Bonds also got a bid as short sellers covered. Strong earnings news from IBM and AAPL could propel stocks higher into the 7/25 turn window but a strong correction is likely into August and September – we wouldn't chase tech stocks here because of the negative seasonal from late July through September. The overheated PM sector corrected on the news from Washington and we may have made a seasonal high for gold. The 36-wk cycle low is due around 8/1 and silver may be especially vulnerable to a general commodity decline in August. The Dollar Index rally today was rather muted – still looking for a rally to .90 into late summer – a staunch commodity decline into the Fall may give the Fed the political cover for a QE3.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave rally from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting an August/September correction in stocks after the 60-yr cycle peak in commodities topped out in May – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. The ES=1300 support level did hold Monday on a closing basis – looking for a rally to ES~1350 or so by 7/25 before a turn down.

 

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold rallied to a new high today before reversing down – a seasonal high may have been made. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until August cycle lows before making initial purchases – silver could retrace to the high $20s. Gold stocks may have made a major low on 6/16 – we should get a pull back here after the divergent rally into the Full Moon on Friday.

 

• Stocks – The ES rallied on positive earnings from IBM and then went into overdrive after Obama's press conference on the Senate Deficit Reduction Plan. We're looking for a run to ES~1350 by 7/25 before a decline into September.
• Gold – Gold reversed on news of progress in Washington – may have put in a July seasonal high - a pull back into the 36-wk cycle low is due around 8/1.
• Silver – Silver finally corrected on news of a new deficit reduction plan in Washington – our gut says that silver will be hit hard by strong commodity selling in August/September – a 36-wk cycle low is due around 8/1.
• Bonds – The bonds got a pop on the "Senate Plan" to address the US deficit – this market has held up well after the official end of QE2.
• Crude oil – Crude oil rallied hard today – the OIH took out Friday's high and argues for more bounce in oil here
• Dollar index – Looking for .90 on the Dollar Index by September which will bring some hard selling in stocks and commodities.

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

Oil and grains rolled over Monday after the Full Moon Timing but the PM sector continued to rally.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.67 -.01) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – this company is at the verge of a major rating in price – recent drilling results from the Carlin trend, the JV with AEM at Rattlesnake Hills, and the refocusing of Quinton on the exploration effort are all very positive signs.
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.72 +.10) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.54 -.01) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Resource (PCY.V, C$0.73 +.01) - Normal profit taking going on here after a large run up last year. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.1720 +.0001) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – July 18, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

7/18/11 (Commentary for Monday) The ES broke below 1300 but found support at 1291 – strong earnings from IBM are supportive in the overnight session. Back-to-back levels of the ISEE call/put ratio below 70 argue for a strong bounce soon. Just a band-aid resolution of the debt ceiling impasse would give us a strong bounce here. The PM sector rallied through the Full Moon Timing Window as money flow favored the metals over bonds. Crude oil tested Thursday's low and appears to have more rally for tomorrow. The Dollar Index rally failed late and has returned back into its trading range – still looking for a rally to .90 into late summer – a staunch commodity decline into the Fall may give the Fed the political cover for a QE3.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high that may have ended on 7/8/11. We only saw a 3-wave from the 6/16 low into the 7/8 high. Expecting a Fall washout in stocks after from a 60-yr cycle peak in commodities – stocks have been closely correlated with commodities since the blow off peak in commodities in July 2008 – the slowdown in China may have more teeth than analysts realize. The ES=1300 support level did hold Monday on a closing basis - this should allow another leg up in the broad market into late July.

 

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Gold rallied to new highs invalidating the triangle count. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until August cycle lows before making initial purchases – silver could retrace to the high $20s. Gold stocks may have made a major low on 6/16 – we should get a pull back here after the divergent rally into the Full Moon on Friday.

 

• Stocks – The ES broke 1300 to the downside but found support around 1291 before rallying – overnight strength in IBM and AAPL are supportive for more rally tomorrow. The debt ceiling dilemma could be solved by a short-term band aid measure that could give the markets a relief rally – this could happen at any time.
• Gold – Gold has now rallied for 10 straight days and blown through the Full Moon Timing Window - a weakening Dollar Index argues for higher gold prices going into late July.
• Silver – Silver negated the supposedly terminal EW pattern going into Full Moon by extending higher – this market is blowing through some heavy resistance on some wicked short covering.
• Bonds – The bonds looked heavy today as safe haven money chose the PMs over treasuries – this argues for more of a rally in stocks.
• Crude oil – Crude oil declined today and tested Thursday's low – the OIH took out Friday's high and argues for more bounce in oil here
• Dollar index – The Dollar Index pulled back late in the day as the Euro rallied. Looking for .90 on the Dollar Index by September which will bring some hard selling in stocks and commodities.

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

Oil and grains rolled over Monday after the Full Moon Timing but the PM sector continued to rally.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.68 -.04) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – this company is at the verge of a major rating in price – recent drilling results from the Carlin trend, the JV with AEM at Rattlesnake Hills, and the refocusing of Quinton on the exploration effort are all very positive signs.
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.62 -.13) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.55 -.03) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Resource (PCY.V, C$0.72 +.00) - Normal profit taking going on here after a large run up last year. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.1719 +.0019) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.