All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer – June 16, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

6/16/11 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX is looking for a 3^rd wave capitulation – the decline should continue by no later than Monday. A Greek debt default could impact domestic money market funds as French and German bank paper is held by money market funds. If the Euro takes out the May lows, then we will get a confirmation that the Pi-cycle 6/13-6/14 turn window correlated with an exit of capital flows from Europe. A 5^th wave low in late June on the 55-day Fibonacci step-out day is a possibility for gold and the SPX. Bonds rallied hard on a flight to quality but sovereign debt concerns should curtail this rally. The Euro bounced today but the move looked corrective – more downside is expected by next week. We believe that the Martin Armstrong Pi-Cycle date on 6/13-6/14 will correlate to a turn in world capital flows and we suspect that this will be a flight out of the Euro and into the USD. We feel that the period between 6/1 (New Moon/partial solar eclipse) and the 6/15 lunar eclipse (including the 6/13 PI-cycle turn date) should mark important turns in several markets – the grains, oil, Dollar Index and stock indices all reversed hard in this time window. The Dollar Index may be on its way to a summer target of .90.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX is topping the rally from March 2009. There are four signs of a major top in the making for the stock market: (1) the peaking of the OIH and XOI indices in early April, (2) the out performance of health care and other defensive sectors in April, (3) the bottom of the Dollar Index on April 28, and (4) the intermediate-term top in silver on 4/25 and gold on 5/2. The 6/13 PI-cycle turn date is shaping up to be a short-term low in the broad market and perhaps a major low in gold stocks – a 4^th wave rally on the hourly SPX should start Monday with the 5^th wave down bottoming in late June.

 

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Important intermediate tops were made in gold and silver – silver ($49.20) on 4/25 and gold ($1577) on 5/2. We got a retest of those tops into the New Moon on 6/1 - a C-wave down into late July/early August is now ahead– the 36-wk cycle low and the 12-wk cycle low. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until the next 12-wk cycle low around late July before making initial purchases – silver could retrace to the high $20s. Gold stocks only gave us a tepid rally into 6/15 before reversing down with the broad market today.

      

• Stocks – Looking for a Wave 3 of C capitulation on the hourly chart – decline should resume by Monday
• Gold – Gold held above the key 1520 level – a break below $1520 will imply more down into late June.
• Silver – Silver bounced hard with gold but we're looking for a turn down to correction lows by the last week in June.
• Bonds – We expect bonds to reverse lower soon as sovereign debt risks infect the US Treasury market.
• Crude oil – Crude oil still looks weak – we're expecting an important cycle low next week.
• Dollar index – The Euro targets 1.35 by late June. 

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

The 6/13-6/15 is looking like MAJOR TURN WINDOW for a capitulation low. Gold stocks could make a major low and bounce into the Full Moon on 6/15.

     

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.60 -.00) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – IT HAS BEEN DEAD MONEY AND SHOULD BE CONSIDERED AS A SOURCE OF FUNDS FOR other PM juniors with a better looking chart.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.96 +.02) – The Japanese nuclear plant cooling issues caused panic selling today in all things uranium – we are holding for higher prices. Uranium stocks are playing catch up to the rest of the commodity complex. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
• Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.55 -.00) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
• Prophecy Resource (PCY.V, C$0.62 -.01) - Normal profit taking going on here after a large run up last year. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.15 -.02) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – June 15, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

6/15/11 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX fell hard on the possibility of a Greek sovereign debt which could jeopardize the balance sheets of French and German banks. The SPX may have entered a 3^rd Wave of C down. If the Euro takes out the May lows, then we will get a confirmation that the Pi-cycle 6/13-6/14 turn window correlated with an exit of capital flows from Europe A 5^th wave low in late June on the 55-day Fibonacci step-out day is a possibility. Bonds rallied hard on a flight to quality but sovereign debt concerns should curtail this rally. The Euro bounced today but the move looked corrective – more downside is expected by next week. We believe that the Martin Armstrong Pi-Cycle date on 6/13-6/14 will be correlate to a turn in world capital flows and we suspect that this will be a flight out of the Euro and into the USD – Today's big USD rally and Euro decline argue for that interpretation. We feel that the period between 6/1 (New Moon/partial solar eclipse) and the 6/15 lunar eclipse (including the 6/13 PI-cycle turn date) should mark important turns in several markets – the grains, oil, Dollar Index and stock indices all reversed hard in this time window. The Dollar Index may be on its way to a summer target of .90.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX is topping the rally from March 2009. There are four signs of a major top in the making for the stock market: (1) the peaking of the OIH and XOI indices in early April, (2) the out performance of health care and other defensive sectors in April, (3) the bottom of the Dollar Index on April 28, and (4) the intermediate-term top in silver on 4/25 and gold on 5/2. The 6/13 PI-cycle turn date is shaping up to be a short-term low in the broad market and perhaps a major low in gold stocks – a 4^th wave rally on the hourly SPX should start Monday with the 5^th wave down bottoming in late June.

 

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Important intermediate tops were made in gold and silver – silver ($49.20) on 4/25 and gold ($1577) on 5/2. We got a retest of those tops into the New Moon on 6/1 - a C-wave down into late July/early August is now ahead– the 36-wk cycle low and the 12-wk cycle low. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until the next 12-wk cycle low around late July before making initial purchases – silver could retrace to the high $20s. In contrast to the physical metals, we think that the gold stocks (HUI) may see an important bottom on 6/13 – the Pi-cycle turn date – a fierce rally into the 6/15 Full Moon would then ensue.

      

• Stocks – The SPX fell hard on the Potential Greek bailout. The technicals of the Euro argued for a big decline soon and the passing of the 6/13-6/14 Pi-Cycle turn date saw a flight out of the Euro into the Dollar Index.
• Gold – Gold spiked higher early and then reversed down – both gold and silver reversed up after a 3-wave corrective decline on the 5 min. Gold held above the key 1520 level.
• Silver – Silver peaked in the Full Moon Timing Window and declined but managed to fight back up the balance of the day.
• Bonds – Bonds rallied hard on a flight-to-quality bid. We expect bonds to reverse lower soon as sovereign debt risks infect the US Treasury market.
• Crude oil – Crude oil peaked early and then rolled over – we're expecting an important cycle low next week.
• Dollar index – Panic over a possible Greek default drove the Dollar Index higher as the Euro plunged in a 3^rd wave down of Wave C. 

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

The 6/13-6/15 is looking like MAJOR TURN WINDOW for a capitulation low. Gold stocks could make a major low and bounce into the Full Moon on 6/15.

     

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.60 -.01) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – IT HAS BEEN DEAD MONEY AND SHOULD BE CONSIDERED AS A SOURCE OF FUNDS FOR other PM juniors with a better looking chart.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.94 -.08) – The Japanese nuclear plant cooling issues caused panic selling today in all things uranium – we are holding for higher prices. Uranium stocks are playing catch up to the rest of the commodity complex. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
• Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.55 -.05) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
• Prophecy Resource (PCY.V, C$0.63 -.04) - Normal profit taking going on here after a large run up last year. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.1680 +.00) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – June 14, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

6/14/11 (Commentary for Tuesday) We got a trading bounce from the very oversold SPX but the gold stocks look a little tepid. Gold stocks may have more downside into late June but more rally into the Full Moon Timing Window tomorrow is likely. The SPX is bouncing in a 4^th wave low on the SPX – a 5^th wave low in late June on the 55-day Fibonacci step-out day is a possibility. Bonds sold off on the market rally – a corrective bounce on the 5 min chart should be sold. A sovereign debt crisis could impact this market in a negative way this summer. The Euro bounced today but the move looked corrective – more downside is expected by next week. We believe that the Martin Armstrong Pi-Cycle date on 6/13-6/14 will be significant to a turn in world capital flows and we suspect that this will be a flight out of the Euro and into the USD – HOWEVER, NO BIG MOVES WERE SEEN IN Euro/USD so far this week. We feel that the period between 6/1 (New Moon/partial solar eclipse) and the 6/15 lunar eclipse (including the 6/13 PI-cycle turn date) should mark important turns in several markets. The Dollar Index got a bounce today and should be close to turning up in a big way after expiration.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX is topping the rally from March 2009. There are four signs of a major top in the making for the stock market: (1) the peaking of the OIH and XOI indices in early April, (2) the out performance of health care and other defensive sectors in April, (3) the bottom of the Dollar Index on April 28, and (4) the intermediate-term top in silver on 4/25 and gold on 5/2. The 6/13 PI-cycle turn date is shaping up to be a short-term low in the broad market and perhaps a major low in gold stocks – a 4^th wave rally on the hourly SPX should start Monday with the 5^th wave down bottoming in late June.

 

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Important intermediate tops were made in gold and silver – silver ($49.20) on 4/25 and gold ($1577) on 5/2. We got a retest of those tops into the New Moon on 6/1 - a C-wave down into late July/early August is now ahead– the 36-wk cycle low and the 12-wk cycle low. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until the next 12-wk cycle low around late July before making initial purchases – silver could retrace to the high $20s. In contrast to the physical metals, we think that the gold stocks (HUI) may see an important bottom on 6/13 – the Pi-cycle turn date – a fierce rally into the 6/15 Full Moon would then ensue.

      

• Stocks – Monday did give us a low in the SPX and today's bounce lifted many sectors. The TRIN5 is already bouncing into overbought levels implying that this bounce may not last long. Option expiration week should give us more bounce at least to wipe out some put holders. Many stocks like IBM are far below their "max option pain levels".
• Gold – Gold and silver did bounce today but gold stocks were a little tepid. Lacking a capitulation on Monday and a test of HUI=475 this may just be a bounce before lower lows later in June.
• Silver – Silver gave us a bounce – more rally into the Full Moon rally tomorrow is likely.
• Bonds – Bonds pulled back on market strength – could be setting up for a good short.
• Crude oil – Crude oil rallied hard as we entered the Full Moon timing window – we may re-enter ERY (3x short crude) tomorrow on the Full Moon – looking for a cycle low next week.
• Dollar index – The Euro bounced correctively today – the Euro should see a 3^rd wave down of Wave C soon after expiration. 

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

The 6/13-6/15 is looking like MAJOR TURN WINDOW for a capitulation low. Gold stocks could make a major low and bounce into the Full Moon on 6/15.

     

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.61 +.01) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – IT HAS BEEN DEAD MONEY AND SHOULD BE CONSIDERED AS A SOURCE OF FUNDS FOR other PM juniors with a better looking chart.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.02 +.03) – The Japanese nuclear plant cooling issues caused panic selling today in all things uranium – we are holding for higher prices. Uranium stocks are playing catch up to the rest of the commodity complex. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
• Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.60 +.03) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
• Prophecy Resource (PCY.V, C$0.67 +.04) - Normal profit taking going on here after a large run up last year. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.1680 +.0092) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – June 13, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

6/13/11 (Commentary for Monday) We didn't get a gap down opening in the SPX this morning so our signal to go long gold stock calls mostly went unfilled. Looking to sell market puts on weakness Tuesday and buy calls on gold and other stocks into the Full Moon on 6/15. The SPX may bounce in a 4^th wave low on the SPX – a 5^th wave low in late June on the 55-day Fibonacci step-out day is a possibility. The bonds are getting a bid as deflationary forces gather some steam but a sovereign debt crisis could impact this market in a negative way this summer. The Euro was sold hard after the failure of the ECB to raise rates. We believe that the Martin Armstrong Pi-Cycle date on 6/13-6/14 will be significant to a turn in world capital flows and we suspect that this will be a flight out of the Euro and into the USD. We feel that the period between 6/1 (New Moon/partial solar eclipse) and the 6/15 lunar eclipse (including the 6/13 PI-cycle turn date) should mark important turns in several markets. The Euro appears to be in a 3^rd wave on the downside – may get a short-term low on Monday.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX is topping the rally from March 2009. There are four signs of a major top in the making for the stock market: (1) the peaking of the OIH and XOI indices in early April, (2) the out performance of health care and other defensive sectors in April, (3) the bottom of the Dollar Index on April 28, and (4) the intermediate-term top in silver on 4/25 and gold on 5/2. The 6/13 PI-cycle turn date is shaping up to be a short-term low in the broad market and perhaps a major low in gold stocks – a 4^th wave rally on the hourly SPX should start Monday with the 5^th wave down bottoming in late June.

 

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Important intermediate tops were made in gold and silver – silver ($49.20) on 4/25 and gold ($1577) on 5/2. We got a retest of those tops into the New Moon on 6/1 - a C-wave down into late July/early August is now ahead– the 36-wk cycle low and the 12-wk cycle low. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until the next 12-wk cycle low around late July before making initial purchases – silver could retrace to the high $20s. In contrast to the physical metals, we think that the gold stocks (HUI) may see an important bottom on 6/13 – the Pi-cycle turn date – a fierce rally into the 6/15 Full Moon would then ensue.

      

• Stocks – We didn't get a capitulation but we made lower lows - we refrained from adding to gold stock calls in a big way. The SPX is in an EW 3^rd wave down off the 6/1 high looking for a capitulation – 6/13-6/15 looks like the target window in time. Option expiration week should give us a bounce at least to wipe out some put holders. Many stocks like IBM are far below their "max option pain levels".
• Gold – The HUI has traced out a minimal EW 5-wave down on the daily chart – testing HUI=475 on Tuesday will be a trigger to go long for a trade. A fierce bounce into the 6/15 Full Moon should ensue.
• Silver – Silver made lower lows but we didn't get the setup desired for a trade.
• Bonds – Bonds pulled back after early strength – could be setting up for a good short.
• Crude oil – Crude oil got hammered today implying more selling in the SPX – a cycle low next week is due.
• Dollar index – The Euro bounced correctively today – the Euro may see a 3^rd wave down of Wave C soon. 

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

The 6/13-6/15 is looking like MAJOR TURN WINDOW for a capitulation low. Gold stocks could make a major low and bounce into the Full Moon on 6/15.

     

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.60 -.02) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – IT HAS BEEN DEAD MONEY AND SHOULD BE CONSIDERED AS A SOURCE OF FUNDS FOR other PM juniors with a better looking chart.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.99 -.03) – The Japanese nuclear plant cooling issues caused panic selling today in all things uranium – we are holding for higher prices. Uranium stocks are playing catch up to the rest of the commodity complex. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
• Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.57 -.00) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
• Prophecy Resource (PCY.V, C$0.63 -.03) - Normal profit taking going on here after a large run up last year. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.1588 -.0102) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly JDV Market Timer – June 12, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

6/12/11 (Commentary for Sunday) Friday's late day weakness set up the possibility of a gap down opening on Monday and perhaps a big down day on the 6/13 PI- cycle day. Looking to sell market puts on weakness Monday and buy calls on gold and other stocks into the Full Moon on 6/15. The SPX may bounce in a 4^th wave low on the SPX – a 5^th wave low in late June on the 55-day Fibonacci step-out day is a possibility. The bonds are getting a bid as deflationary forces gather some steam but a sovereign debt crisis could impact this market in a negative way this summer. The Euro was sold hard after the failure of the ECB to raise rates. We believe that the Martin Armstrong Pi-Cycle date on 6/13 will be significant to a turn in world capital flows and we suspect that this will be a flight out of the Euro and into the USD. We feel that the period between 6/1 (New Moon/partial solar eclipse) and the 6/15 lunar eclipse (including the 6/13 PI-cycle turn date) should mark important turns in several markets. The Euro appears to be in a 3^rd wave on the downside – may get a short-term low on Monday.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX is topping the rally from March 2009. There are four signs of a major top in the making for the stock market: (1) the peaking of the OIH and XOI indices in early April, (2) the out performance of health care and other defensive sectors in April, (3) the bottom of the Dollar Index on April 28, and (4) the intermediate-term top in silver on 4/25 and gold on 5/2. The 6/13 PI-cycle turn date is shaping up to be a short-term low in the broad market and perhaps a major low in gold stocks – a 4^th wave rally on the hourly SPX should start Monday with the 5^th wave down bottoming in late June.

 

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Important intermediate tops were made in gold and silver – silver ($49.20) on 4/25 and gold ($1577) on 5/2. We got a retest of those tops into the New Moon on 6/1 - a C-wave down into late July/early August is now ahead– the 36-wk cycle low and the 12-wk cycle low. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until the next 12-wk cycle low around late July before making initial purchases – silver could retrace to the high $20s. In contrast to the physical metals, we think that the gold stocks (HUI) may see an important bottom on 6/13 – the Pi-cycle turn date – a fierce rally into the 6/15 Full Moon would then ensue.

      

• Stocks –The SPX is in an EW 3^rd wave down off the 6/1 high looking for a capitulation – 6/13 looks like the target day. A gap down on Monday will have us selling puts and scaling into gold stock calls for a bounce into the Full Moon.
• Gold – The HUI is close to an EW 5-wave down on the daily chart – testing HUI=475 on Monday will be a trigger to go long. A fierce rally into the 6/15 Full Moon should ensue.
• Silver – Silver bounced with gold – expecting a short-term low going into 6/13 and then a bounce into the Full Moon.
• Bonds – Bonds are getting a flight to quality rally that should last into the Pi-cycle turn date on 6/13 – bonds might be worth a scalp short on Monday if we get a gap down on stocks.
• Crude oil – Crude oil should make a short-term low on Monday and then bounce into the Full Moon on 6/15 – an important cycle low is due the week of 6/20.
• Dollar index – The Euro appears to be in a 3^rd wave down on the hourly as does the SPX – the Euro may see a short-term low on Monday. 

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

The 6/13-6/15 is looking like MAJOR TURN WINDOW for a capitulation low. Gold stocks could make a major low and bounce into the Full Moon on 6/15.

     

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.62 -.02) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – IT HAS BEEN DEAD MONEY AND SHOULD BE CONSIDERED AS A SOURCE OF FUNDS FOR other PM juniors with a better looking chart.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.02 -.04) – The Japanese nuclear plant cooling issues caused panic selling today in all things uranium – we are holding for higher prices. Uranium stocks are playing catch up to the rest of the commodity complex. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
• Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.57 -.03) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
• Prophecy Resource (PCY.V, C$0.66 -.02) - Normal profit taking going on here after a large run up last year. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.1690 +.0130) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – June 9, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

6/09/11 (Commentary for Thursday) We got a low-volume, corrective bounce today after several consecutive days of selling – we are still looking for a capitulation low in the 6/13-6/15 turn window. The HUI (gold stock index) is leading the market down and we may make an important low early next week. We could see a 5-8% decline on 6/13 to set an important market low in the broad market. Oil spiked higher on the chaotic OPEC meeting – but this is a sideshow – oil is set to make a large decline over the summer. The bonds are getting a bid as deflationary forces gather some steam but a sovereign debt crisis could impact this market in a negative way this summer. The Euro was sold hard after the failure of the ECB to raise rates. We believe that the Martin Armstrong Pi-Cycle date on 6/13 will be significant to a turn in world capital flows and we suspect that this will be a flight out of the Euro and into the USD. We feel that the period between 6/1 (New Moon/partial solar eclipse) and the 6/15 lunar eclipse (including the 6/13 PI-cycle turn date) should mark important turns in several markets. The weekly and monthly charts of the Dollar Index argue for a move to .90 sometime this summer before the long-awaited meltdown but an onset of a QE3 from the Fed could truncate this rally.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX is topping the rally from March 2009. There are four signs of a major top in the making for the stock market: (1) the peaking of the OIH and XOI indices in early April, (2) the out performance of health care and other defensive sectors in April, (3) the bottom of the Dollar Index on April 28, and (4) the intermediate-term top in silver on 4/25 and gold on 5/2. A secondary SPX top is likely going into the next Pi Cycle date (6/13) at a time when the Fed plans to stop its QE2 campaign – raising cash levels is important here. We should see a large selling wave around mid-June.

 

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Important intermediate tops were made in gold and silver – silver ($49.20) on 4/25 and gold ($1577) on 5/2. We got a retest of those tops into the New Moon on 6/1 - a C-wave down into late July/early August is now ahead– the 36-wk cycle low and the 12-wk cycle low. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until the next 12-wk cycle low around late July before making initial purchases – silver could retrace to the high $20s. In contrast to the physical metals, we think that the gold stocks (HUI) may see an important bottom on 6/13 – the Pi-cycle turn date – a fierce rally into the 6/15 Full Moon would then ensue.

      

• Stocks – The SPX gave us a corrective, low-volume bounce today – we should see more weakness by late Friday. The SPX is in an EW 3^rd wave down off the 6/1 high looking for a capitulation – 6/13 looks like the target day.
• Gold – The HUI continued weak today and argues for a wipeout by the 6/13-6/15 turn window which could be a major low. A fierce rally into the 6/15 Full Moon should ensue.
• Silver – Silver bounced with gold – expecting a low going into 6/13.
• Bonds – Bonds are getting a flight to quality rally that should last into the Pi-cycle turn date on 6/13.
• Crude oil – Crude oil got another bid today – a low around 6/20 is due.
• Dollar index – The Euro gapped down today when the ECB declined to raise rates – Wave 3 of C down is underway. 

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

The 6/13-6/15 is looking like MAJOR TURN WINDOW for a capitulation low. Gold stocks should make a major low

     

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.64 -.02) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – IT HAS BEEN DEAD MONEY AND SHOULD BE CONSIDERED AS A SOURCE OF FUNDS FOR other PM juniors with a better looking chart.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.06 +.19) – The Japanese nuclear plant cooling issues caused panic selling today in all things uranium – we are holding for higher prices. Uranium stocks are playing catch up to the rest of the commodity complex. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
• Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.60 -.01) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
• Prophecy Resource (PCY.V, C$0.68 +.02) - Normal profit taking going on here after a large run up last year. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.1560 -.0047) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – June 8, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

6/08/11 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX is in an EW 3^rd wave looking for a capitulation low – chances are we might get the panic low on 6/13. The market ignored a pretty reliable buy single on the Option Premium Ratio today and it now appears to be in a 3^rd wave down off the 6/1 New Moon high. The HUI (gold stock index) is leading the market down and we may make an important low early next week. We could see a 5-8% decline on 6/13 to set an important market low in the broad market. Oil spiked higher on the chaotic OPEC meeting – but this is a sideshow – oil is set to make a large decline over the summer. The bonds are getting a bid as deflationary forces gather some steam but a sovereign debt crisis could impact this market in a negative way this summer. The Dollar Index may be turning up here and a bloated, overvalued Euro may have peaked its rally. We believe that the Martin Armstrong Pi-Cycle date on 6/13 will be significant to a turn in world capital flows and we suspect that this will be a flight out of the Euro and into the USD. We feel that the period between 6/1 (New Moon/partial solar eclipse) and the 6/15 lunar eclipse (including the 6/13 PI-cycle turn date) should mark important turns in several markets. The weekly and monthly charts of the Dollar Index argue for a move to .90 sometime this summer before the long-awaited meltdown but an onset of a QE3 from the Fed could truncate this rally.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX is topping the rally from March 2009. There are four signs of a major top in the making for the stock market: (1) the peaking of the OIH and XOI indices in early April, (2) the out performance of health care and other defensive sectors in April, (3) the bottom of the Dollar Index on April 28, and (4) the intermediate-term top in silver on 4/25 and gold on 5/2. A secondary SPX top is likely going into the next Pi Cycle date (6/13) at a time when the Fed plans to stop its QE2 campaign – raising cash levels is important here. We should see a large selling wave around mid-June.

 

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Important intermediate tops were made in gold and silver – silver ($49.20) on 4/25 and gold ($1577) on 5/2. We got a retest of those tops into the New Moon on 6/1 - a C-wave down into late July/early August is now ahead– the 36-wk cycle low and the 12-wk cycle low. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until the next 12-wk cycle low around late July before making initial purchases – silver could retrace to the high $20s. In contrast to the physical metals, we think that the gold stocks (HUI) may see an important bottom on 6/13 – the Pi-cycle turn date – a fierce rally into the 6/15 Full Moon would then ensue.

      

• Stocks – The buy signal on the Option Premium Ratio failed in the face of the market's selling pressure. The SPX is in an EW 3^rd wave down off the 6/1 high looking for a capitulation – 6/13 looks like the target day.
• Gold – The HUI continued weak today and argues for a wipeout by the 6/13-6/15 turn window which could be a major low. A fierce rally into the 6/15 Full Moon should ensue.
• Silver – Silver continued lower with gold – added SLV puts too hedge junior PMs.
• Bonds – Bonds are getting a flight to quality rally that should last into the Pi-cycle turn date on 6/13.
• Crude oil – Crude oil rallied hard on the chaotic OPEC meeting but these gains should be given up quickly as markets slide into 6/13.
• Dollar index – The Euro began to roll over today – may have started a big Wave C down on the hourly. 

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

The 6/13-6/15 is looking like MAJOR TURN WINDOW for a capitulation low. Gold stocks should make a major low

     

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.66 -.01) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – IT HAS BEEN DEAD MONEY AND SHOULD BE CONSIDERED AS A SOURCE OF FUNDS FOR other PM juniors with a better looking chart.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.87 -.23) – The Japanese nuclear plant cooling issues caused panic selling today in all things uranium – we are holding for higher prices. Uranium stocks are playing catch up to the rest of the commodity complex. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
• Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.61 -.01) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
• Prophecy Resource (PCY.V, C$0.66 -.04) - Normal profit taking going on here after a large run up last year. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.1607 +.0077) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – June 7, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

6/07/11 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX is oversold with a TRIN5 value of 11.56 – close to the key lows of July and August 2010 – at least a multi-day bounce is in order here before a final low in the 6/13-6/15 time window. A maximum bearish EW interpretation classifies the decline from June 1 as a Wave 1 of 3 down on the daily – a corrective bounce for a few days could lead to a plunge into the 6/13-6/15 turn window – the probability of this interpretation increased this week as leading stocks like AAPL, FCX, IBM, etc. traded poorly. A Large Divergent Rally in the Option Premium Ratio (from .96 to 1.14) argues for a 200 DJIA point rally in the next few days. We believe that the Martin Armstrong Pi-Cycle date on 6/13 will be significant to a turn in world capital flows and we suspect that this will be a flight out of the Euro and into the USD. US Treasury bonds may at first benefit from capital flows out of Europe so we are refrained from shorting this market in the short-term. Our gut tells us that serious SPX selling may not happen until mid-June but we must be agile and open to maximum bearish possibilities right away as the 6/13-6/15 turn window could be a low. We feel that the period between 6/1 (New Moon/partial solar eclipse) and the 6/15 lunar eclipse (including the 6/13 PI-cycle turn date) should mark important turns in several markets. The weekly and monthly charts of the Dollar Index argue for a move to .90 sometime this summer before the long-awaited meltdown but an onset of a QE3 from the Fed could truncate this rally.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX is topping the rally from March 2009. There are four signs of a major top in the making for the stock market: (1) the peaking of the OIH and XOI indices in early April, (2) the out performance of health care and other defensive sectors in April, (3) the bottom of the Dollar Index on April 28, and (4) the intermediate-term top in silver on 4/25 and gold on 5/2. A secondary SPX top is likely going into the next Pi Cycle date (6/13) at a time when the Fed plans to stop its QE2 campaign – raising cash levels is important here. We should see a large selling wave around mid-June.

 

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Important intermediate tops were made in gold and silver – silver ($49.20) on 4/25 and gold ($1577) on 5/2. We got a retest of those tops into the New Moon on 6/1 - a C-wave down into late July/early August is now ahead– the 36-wk cycle low and the 12-wk cycle low. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until the next 12-wk cycle low around late July before making initial purchases – silver could retrace to the high $20s.

      

• Stocks – A Large Divergent Rally in the Option Premium Ratio (.96 to 1.14) argues for a 200 point DJIA rally in the next couple of days. The TRIN5 (11.56) indicator is close to July and August lows.
• Gold – The HUI continued weak today and argues for a wipeout by the 6/13-6/15 turn window which could be a key intermediate-term low.
• Silver – Silver rallied as gold made a bearish divergence.
• Bonds – Bonds are getting a flight to quality rally that should last into the Pi-cycle turn date on 6/13.
• Crude oil – Crude oil declined and is due a low by 6/20.
• Dollar index – The Euro was up big as the Dollar Index tested lows again – believe that the Euro will see significant capital outflows soon. 

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

More topping action by the SPX into the 6/13 – 6/15 turning point window should bring key turns in many markets – but there is an EW count that could bring a scary low into this turn window.

     

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.67 -.03) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – IT HAS BEEN DEAD MONEY AND SHOULD BE CONSIDERED AS A SOURCE OF FUNDS FOR other PM juniors with a better looking chart.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.10 -.02) – The Japanese nuclear plant cooling issues caused panic selling today in all things uranium – we are holding for higher prices. Uranium stocks are playing catch up to the rest of the commodity complex. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
• Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.62 -.02) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
• Prophecy Resource (PCY.V, C$0.70 -.00) - Normal profit taking going on here after a large run up last year. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.1530 -.0080) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – June 6, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

6/06/11 (Commentary for Monday) We expected a low today but didn't like the market tape especially near the close. A maximum bearish EW interpretation had the decline today as a Wave 1 of 3 down on the daily – a corrective bounce for a few days could lead to a plunge into the 6/13-6/15 turn window – the probability of this interpretation increased today as leading stocks like AAPL, FCX, IBM, etc. traded poorly. Gold may have peaked a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high on the 34-day Fibonacci step out from that high – the sharp decline in the HUI today added to that idea. We believe that a SPX rally to test the 5/2 highs should get underway by Tuesday and run into the 6/13-6/15 turning point window but a weak and corrective effort will have us adding puts early in the day. We believe that the Martin Armstrong Pi-Cycle date on 6/13 will be significant to a turn in world capital flows and we suspect that this will be a flight out of the Euro and into the USD. US Treasury bonds may at first benefit from capital flows out of Europe so we are refrained from shorting this market in the short-term. The USD has clearing retested its early May lows and may be reversing up again – tomorrow's action will be key. Our gut tells us that serious SPX selling may not happen until mid-June but we must be agile and open to maximum bearish possibilities right away as the 6/13-6/15 turn window could be a low. We feel that the period between 6/1 (New Moon/partial solar eclipse) and the 6/15 lunar eclipse (including the 6/13 PI-cycle turn date) should mark important turns in several markets. The weekly and monthly charts of the Dollar Index argue for a move to .90 sometime this summer before the long-awaited meltdown but an onset of a QE3 from the Fed could truncate this rally.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX is topping the rally from March 2009. There are four signs of a major top in the making for the stock market: (1) the peaking of the OIH and XOI indices in early April, (2) the out performance of health care and other defensive sectors in April, (3) the bottom of the Dollar Index on April 28, and (4) the intermediate-term top in silver on 4/25 and gold on 5/2. A secondary SPX top is likely going into the next Pi Cycle date (6/13) at a time when the Fed plans to stop its QE2 campaign – raising cash levels is important here. We should see a large selling wave around mid-June.

 

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Important intermediate tops were made in gold and silver – silver ($49.20) on 4/25 and gold ($1577) on 5/2. We got a retest of those tops into the New Moon on 6/1 - a C-wave down into late July/early August is now ahead– the 36-wk cycle low and the 12-wk cycle low. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until the next 12-wk cycle low around late July before making initial purchases – silver could retrace to the high $20s.

      

• Stocks – We expected a low today on the 34-day Fibonacci step out but we didn't like the tape near the close – a weak corrective bounce tomorrow will get us big on the short side.
• Gold – Gold peaked a B-Wave test of the 5/2 high today on the 34-day Fibonacci step out and reversed down hard with the HUI leading – this is a negative sign for the broad market.
• Silver – Silver reversed down as well – we sold our SLV calls.
• Bonds – Bonds are getting a flight to quality rally that should last for awhile – we are not inclined to short here - however, the sovereign debt crisis bug should infect US bonds at some point in June.
• Crude oil – Crude oil's early weakness anticipated the broader market selloff late in the day.
• Dollar index – The Dollar Index may be turning up here – the action in the Euro is key early Tuesday. 

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

More topping action by the SPX into the 6/13 – 6/15 turning point window should bring key turns in many markets – but there is an EW count that could bring a scary low into this turn window.

     

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.70 -.04) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – IT HAS BEEN DEAD MONEY AND SHOULD BE CONSIDERED AS A SOURCE OF FUNDS FOR other PM juniors with a better looking chart.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.12 -.07) – The Japanese nuclear plant cooling issues caused panic selling today in all things uranium – we are holding for higher prices. Uranium stocks are playing catch up to the rest of the commodity complex. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
• Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.64 -.04) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
• Prophecy Resource (PCY.V, C$0.70 -.04) - Normal profit taking going on here after a large run up last year. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.1610 -.0075) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

The Weekly JDV Market Timer – June 5, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

6/05/11 (Commentary for Sunday) We still project a short-term low for the SPX by Monday – the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 5/2 low – and two back-to-back rally days in the Option Premium Ratio argue for a rally soon. We suspect that a rally to test the 5/2 highs should get underway on Monday and run into the 6/13-6/15 turning point window. We believe that the Martin Armstrong Pi-Cycle date on 6/13 will be significant to a turn in world capital flows and we suspect that this will be a flight out of the Euro and into the USD. US Treasury bonds may at first benefit from capital flows out of Europe so we are refrained from shorting this market in the short-term. The USD is clearing retesting its early May lows and should bottom no later than the 6-13-6/15 if our picture is correct. Our gut tells us that serious SPX selling may not happen until mid-June so we will have to be agile. A large washout in the PMs is possible into 6/6 – mirroring the action seen in early June 2006. We feel that the period between 6/1 (New Moon/partial solar eclipse) and the 6/15 lunar eclipse (including the 6/13 PI-cycle turn date) should mark important turns in several markets. The weekly and monthly charts of the Dollar Index argue for a move to .90 sometime this summer before the long-awaited meltdown but an onset of a QE3 from the Fed could truncate this rally.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX is topping the rally from March 2009. There are four signs of a major top in the making for the stock market: (1) the peaking of the OIH and XOI indices in early April, (2) the out performance of health care and other defensive sectors in April, (3) the bottom of the Dollar Index on April 28, and (4) the intermediate-term top in silver on 4/25 and gold on 5/2. A secondary SPX top is likely going into the next Pi Cycle date (6/13) at a time when the Fed plans to stop its QE2 campaign – raising cash levels is important here. We should see a large selling wave around mid-June.

 

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Important intermediate tops were made in gold and silver – silver ($49.20) on 4/25 and gold ($1577) on 5/2. We got a retest of those tops into the New Moon on 6/1 - a C-wave down into late July/early August is now ahead– the 36-wk cycle low and the 12-wk cycle low. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until the next 12-wk cycle low around late July before making initial purchases – silver could retrace to the high $20s.

      

• Stocks – Still looking for a short-term low Monday before a bounce into the 6/13-6/15 turn window.
• Gold – Gold peaked a B-Wave test of the $1577 top and then declined down looking for a washout into the 34-Day Fibonacci step out from the 5/2 high on 6/6. The HUI should make a 5^th wave down off the December high by late June – the 55-Day Fibonacci step out from the 5/2 high.
• Silver – Silver peaked it's post crash rally in the $38-39 range and is now headed down to the high $20s by late August. A short-term low is due on 6/6.
• Bonds – Bonds are getting a flight to quality rally that should last for awhile – we are not inclined to short here - however, the sovereign debt crisis bug should infect US bonds at some point in June.
• Crude oil – Crude oil peaked into the New Moon and should see weakness into late June as the SPX completes its first 3-wave leg down.
• Dollar index – The Dollar Index is still in a short-term down trend that could extend further but we're looking for a fierce bear market bounce to start by 6/13-6/15. 

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

More topping action by the SPX into the 6/13 – 6/15 turning point window should bring key turns in many markets.

     

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.74 +.00) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – IT HAS BEEN DEAD MONEY AND SHOULD BE CONSIDERED AS A SOURCE OF FUNDS FOR other PM juniors with a better looking chart.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.19 +.07) – The Japanese nuclear plant cooling issues caused panic selling today in all things uranium – we are holding for higher prices. Uranium stocks are playing catch up to the rest of the commodity complex. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
• Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.68 +.02) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
• Prophecy Resource (PCY.V, C$0.74 +.03) - Normal profit taking going on here after a large run up last year. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.1685 -.0057) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.