All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer – May 16, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

5/16/11 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX and PMs have declined into the Full Moon Timing Window. The markets look weak but a bounce should develop for the PMs and stock market here. For the HUI, the C-Wave down from the early April high still needs a 4^th and 5^th wave down to complete – the 4^th wave rally should start on the Full Moon tomorrow and the 5^th wave should bottom during the June seasonal lows. The "maximum option pain" price levels for APPL (370), FCX (51), and SLW (40) are all substantially above the closing prices of today APPL (333.30), FCX (47.35), and SLW (33.75) and imply an upward bias in stocks as we go into expiration Friday. The bond market took out last week's high and implies that the deflationary forces may be gaining steam here. If the Dollar Index did not make an important intermediate low on 4/28, it should do so by the PI-cycle turn on 6/13. A fierce short-covering rally in the Dollar Index may be underway even before the official end of QE2. The weekly and monthly charts of the Dollar Index argue for a move to .90 sometime this summer before the long-awaited meltdown. The Dollar Index appears to be rallying in the next wave higher but a retest of the lows going into mid-June is a possibility. The Euro is in danger of collapse – sell the Euro on bounces.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX is topping the rally from March 2009. There are four signs of a major top in the making for the stock market: (1) the peaking of the OIH and XOI indices in early April, (2) the outperformance of healthcare and other defensive sectors in April, (3) the apparent bottom of the Dollar Index on April 28, and (4) the intermediate-term top in silver on 4/25 and gold on 5/2. A final leg is possible going into the next Pi Cycle date (6/13) at a time when the Fed plans to stop its QE2 campaign – raising cash levels is important here. We should see a big correction beginning no later than mid-June.

 

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Important intermediate tops were made in gold and silver – silver ($49.20) on 4/25 and gold ($1577) on 5/2. A retest of these tops should occur by 6/13 before a C-wave down into late July/early August – the 36-wk cycle low and the 12-wk cycle low. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until the next 12-wk cycle low around late July before making initial purchases – silver could retrace to the high $20s.

      

• Stocks – Technology and commodity stocks were weak today – expecting a short-term low on the Full Moon tomorrow and a bounce into expiration.
• Gold – The daily chart of the HUI clearly argues that the C-Wave down from April needs a 4^th and 5^th wave correction – the 4^th wave correction should start by the 5/17 Full Moon.
• Silver – Silver should bounce to $40 before the C-wave down into cycle lows in late July/early August. Looking for a low and reversal up on the Full Moon.
• Bonds – Bonds took out last week's high and confirm the strengthening of deflationary forces.
• Crude oil – Like other commodities, looking for a bounce to start on the Full Moon.
• Dollar index – The Dollar Index appears to be making another leg higher – an intermediate-term low should either be in place on 4/28 or by 6/13. The Euro is in danger of collapsing over the next couple of months. Shorting the Euro on rallies. The next phase of the sovereign debt crisis may have arrived.

   

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

The Full Moon Timing Window on 5/17 could give the PMs and the SPX an important turn – at this point it looks like a potential low.

     

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.68 -.02) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – IT HAS BEEN DEAD MONEY AND SHOULD BE CONSIDERED AS A SOURCE OF FUNDS FOR other PM juniors with a better looking chart.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.99 -.10) – The Japanese nuclear plant cooling issues caused panic selling today in all things uranium – we are holding for higher prices. Uranium stocks are playing catch up to the rest of the commodity complex. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
• Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.64 -.02) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
• Prophecy Resource (PCY.V, C$0.65 +.01) - Normal profit taking going on here after a large run up last year. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.1350 -.0450) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly JDV Market Timer – May 15, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

5/15/11 (Commentary for Sunday) Dollar strength pressured the PMs as well as the SPX on Friday – if the Dollar Index did not make an important intermediate low on 4/28, it should do so by the PI-cycle turn on 6/13. A fierce short-covering rally in the Dollar Index may be underway even before the official end of QE2. The weekly and monthly charts of the Dollar Index argue for a move to .90 sometime this summer before the long-awaited meltdown. In the coming week, we should see a short-term low in the Full Moon Timing Window for the PMs followed by a bounce. The SPX should also see weakness going into the Full Moon this week. Bonds failed to confirm Weekly Reversal Timing last week to the downside – additional strength in bonds this week will be bearish for stocks. Commodities have been washed out hard and may have one more rally into mid-June – a super spike in oil above $120 on WTI is still a possibility but the 5/2 highs may be it for this cycle. Commodities are making a major top - peaking a 60 year cycle high. The Dollar Index appears to be rallying in the next wave higher but a retest of the lows going into mid-June is a possibility. The Euro is in danger of collapse – sell the Euro on bounces.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX is topping the rally from March 2009. There are four signs of a major top in the making for the stock market: (1) the peaking of the OIH and XOI indices in early April, (2) the outperformance of healthcare and other defensive sectors in April, (3) the apparent bottom of the Dollar Index on April 28, and (4) the intermediate-term top in silver on 4/25 and gold on 5/2. A final leg is possible going into the next Pi Cycle date (6/13) at a time when the Fed plans to stop its QE2 campaign – raising cash levels is important here. We should see a big correction beginning no later than mid-June.

 

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Important intermediate tops were made in gold and silver – silver ($49.20) on 4/25 and gold ($1577) on 5/2. A retest of these tops should occur by 6/13 before a C-wave down into late July/early August – the 36-wk cycle low and the 12-wk cycle low. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until the next 12-wk cycle low around late July before making initial purchases – silver could retrace to the high $20s.

      

• Stocks – Leading stocks like IBM and FCX looked weak to us on Friday – more weakness on Monday is likely as we enter the Full Moon Timing Window.
• Gold – The daily chart of the GDX clearly argues that the C-Wave down from April needs a 4^th and 5^th wave correction – the 4^th wave correction should start by the 5/17 Full Moon.
• Silver – Silver should bounce over $40 before the C-wave down into cycle lows in late July/early August. Looking for a low by the Full Moon.
• Bonds – Bonds failed to confirm Weekly Reversal Timing to the downside last week and further strength this week will have us out of our June TBT calls and TLT puts.
• Crude oil – A strong short-covering rally in the Dollar Index should pressure this market.
• Dollar index – The Dollar Index appears to be making another leg higher – an intermediate-term low should either be in place on 4/28 or by 6/13. The Euro is in danger of collapsing over the next couple of months. Shorting the Euro on rallies. The next phase of the sovereign debt crisis may have arrived.

   

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

The Full Moon Timing Window on 5/17 could give the PMs and the SPX an important turn – at this point it looks like a potential low.

     

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.70 -.01) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – IT HAS BEEN DEAD MONEY AND SHOULD BE CONSIDERED AS A SOURCE OF FUNDS FOR other PM juniors with a better looking chart.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.09 -.12) – The Japanese nuclear plant cooling issues caused panic selling today in all things uranium – we are holding for higher prices. Uranium stocks are playing catch up to the rest of the commodity complex. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
• Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.64 -.02) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
• Prophecy Resource (PCY.V, C$0.64 -.04) - Normal profit taking going on here after a large run up last year. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.1350 -.0450) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – May 12, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

5/12/11 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX reversed upward around midday as the Dollar Index pulled back – the next leg up in stocks may be underway. Gold and silver reversed higher after a 3-wave pullback on the 5 min – more retracement of the decline after 5/2 is likely. Bonds confirmed Weekly Reversal Timing – took out last week's high and then reversed down. Commodities have been washed out hard and may have one more rally into mid-June – a super spike in oil above $120 on WTI is still a possibility. Commodities are making a major top - peaking a 60 year cycle high. The Dollar Index appears to be rallying in the next wave higher but a retest of the lows going into mid-June is a possibility. The Euro is in danger of collapse – sell the Euro on bounces.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX is topping the rally from March 2009. There are four signs of a major top in the making for the stock market: (1) the peaking of the OIH and XOI indices in early April, (2) the outperformance of healthcare and other defensive sectors in April, (3) the apparent bottom of the Dollar Index on April 28, and (4) the intermediate-term top in silver on 4/25 and gold on 5/2. A final leg is possible going into the next Pi Cycle date (6/13) at a time when the Fed plans to stop its QE2 campaign – raising cash levels is important here. We should see a big correction begin in June.

 

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Important intermediate tops were made in gold and silver – silver ($49.20) on 4/25 and gold ($1577) on 5/2. A retest of these tops should occur by 6/13 before a C-wave down into late July/early August – the next 12-wk cycle low. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until the next 12-wk cycle low around late July before making initial purchases – silver could be back down to the $35 level by then.

      

• Stocks – The SPX reversed up sharply around midday as the Option Premium Ratio made a large gain – buy on dips for a rally into mid-June.
• Gold – Gold reversed sharply higher after finishing a 3-wave pull back on the 5 min chart. The decline of the HUI still looks incomplete on the daily chart – the C-wave down needs a 4^th and 5^th wave down.
• Silver – Silver reversed higher after completing a 3-wave decline on the 5 min chart..
• Bonds – Bonds potentially signaled a major reversal down by taking out last week's high and then reversing down – Weekly Reversal Timing confirmed. Bonds may have finished a 5-wave rally pattern from the April low. This week is Weekly Reversal Timing from Starkey and that could give us an important top.
• Crude oil – Crude oil reversed up after a 3-wave decline on the 5 min chart – a super spike above $120 for WTI is a possibility into mid-June.
• Dollar index – The Dollar Index pulled back after finishing an impulsive rally. The Euro is in danger of collapsing over the next couple of months. Shorting the Euro on rallies. The next phase of the sovereign debt crisis may have arrived.

   

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

The 12-wk cycle low arrived to gold and silver last week – however, this may just be the Wave A down of large EW a-b-c correction that could extend into the next 12-wk cycle low due in late July.

     

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.71 -.03) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – IT HAS BEEN DEAD MONEY AND SHOULD BE CONSIDERED AS A SOURCE OF FUNDS FOR other PM juniors with a better looking chart.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.21 -.00) – The Japanese nuclear plant cooling issues caused panic selling today in all things uranium – we are holding for higher prices. Uranium stocks are playing catch up to the rest of the commodity complex. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
• Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.66 +.02) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
• Prophecy Resource (PCY.V, C$0.68 -.01) - Normal profit taking going on here after a large run up last year. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.18 +.02) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – May 11, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

5/11/11 (Commentary for Wednesday) A strong dollar prompted more commodity liquidation as rising gasoline inventories blew out the gasoline trade and slammed crude oil. Gold and silver took a hit again but commodity stock indices like the GDX were really pummeled. Bonds got a bid late on stock market weakness but bonds are close to an EW 5-waves up from the April low and prone to a reversal down. The Euro may have started the next leg down on the brewing sovereign debt concerns in Euro land. Commodities are making a major top - peaking a 60 year high – but final rallies are possible into mid-June for some commodities. Bonds completed a 4^th Wave since last Friday and maybe peaking a 5^th wave up from the April low. The Dollar Index appears to be rallying in the next wave higher. The Euro is in danger of collapse – sell the Euro on bounces.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX is topping the rally from March 2009. There are four signs of a major top in the making for the stock market: (1) the peaking of the OIH and XOI indices in early April, (2) the outperformance of healthcare and other defensive sectors in April, (3) the apparent bottom of the Dollar Index on April 28, and (4) the intermediate-term top in silver on 4/25 and gold on 5/2. A final leg is possible going into the next Pi Cycle date (6/13) at a time when the Fed plans to stop its QE2 campaign – raising cash levels is important here. We should see a big correction begin in June.

 

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Important intermediate tops were made in gold and silver – silver ($49.20) on 4/25 and gold ($1577) on 5/2. A retest of these tops should occur by 6/13 before a C-wave down into late July/early August – the next 12-wk cycle low. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until the next 12-wk cycle low around late July before making initial purchases – silver could be back down to the $35 level by then.

      

• Stocks – The SPX and Nasdaq suffered Large Volume Reversals today – corrective bounces on Thursday will apply another leg down.
• Gold – Gold got hit today as the Dollar Index roared – the GDXJ tested its 200-day MA again.
• Silver – Silver got hit hard again today as it continues a basing process.
• Bonds – Bonds made a 4^th wave decline from last Friday and are currently rallying in a 5^th wave – taking out last week's high and then reversing down could mark an important turn. This week is Weekly Reversal Timing from Starkey and that could give us an important top.
• Crude oil – Crude oil declined again after a corrective bounce.
• Dollar index – The Dollar Index started its next impulse wave higher. The Euro is in danger of collapsing over the next couple of months. Shorting the Euro on rallies. The next phase of the sovereign debt crisis may have arrived.

   

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

The 12-wk cycle low arrived to gold and silver last week – however, this may just be the Wave A down of large EW a-b-c correction that could extend into the next 12-wk cycle low due in late July.

     

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.74 -.04) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – IT HAS BEEN DEAD MONEY AND SHOULD BE CONSIDERED AS A SOURCE OF FUNDS FOR other PM juniors with a better looking chart.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.21 -.02) – The Japanese nuclear plant cooling issues caused panic selling today in all things uranium – we are holding for higher prices. Uranium stocks are playing catch up to the rest of the commodity complex. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
• Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.64 -.02) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
• Prophecy Resource (PCY.V, C$0.69 -.01) - Normal profit taking going on here after a large run up last year. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.160 -.001) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – May 10, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

5/10/11 (Commentary for Tuesday) The stock market rallied today on good internals and good volume with the NYSE advance/decline line making a new high but a Large Divergent Decline in the Option Premium Ratio argues for weakness early tomorrow for stocks. Higher market highs into mid-June are possible for the SPX. The Euro gave us a corrective bounce today but the next sovereign debt crisis in Europe is rearing its ugly head. A retest of the highs for gold and oil should happen by 6/13 and if the NDX takes out the 5/2 high – another leg up in the SPX is possible into 6/13. Commodities are making a major top - peaking a 60 year high – but final rallies are possible into mid-June for some commodities. Gold and silver are rallying in a B-wave of an EW a-b-c correction that should last into late July. Bonds are due a reversal this week and we may have seen the top last Friday – the breakdown after the auction this afternoon may have started the next leg down. The Euro is in danger of collapse – sell the Euro on bounces.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – The SPX is topping the rally from March 2009. There are four signs of a major top in the making for the stock market: (1) the peaking of the OIH and XOI indices in early April, (2) the outperformance of healthcare and other defensive sectors in April, (3) the apparent bottom of the Dollar Index on April 28, and (4) the intermediate-term top in silver on 4/25 and gold on 5/2. A final leg is possible going into the next Pi Cycle date (6/13) at a time when the Fed plans to stop its QE2 campaign – raising cash levels is important here. We should see a big correction begin in June.

 

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Important intermediate tops were made in gold and silver – silver ($49.20) on 4/25 and gold ($1577) on 5/2. A retest of these tops should occur by 6/13 before a C-wave down into late July/early August – the next 12-wk cycle low. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until the next 12-wk cycle low around late July before making initial purchases – silver could be back down to the $35 level by then.

      

• Stocks – The SPX rallied late on good volume and internals but a Large Divergent Decline argues for weakness early tomorrow.
• Gold – Gold rallied on dollar weakness today. A B-Wave rally to test the highs by early June is underway.
• Silver – Silver rallied hard today but failed to exceed the .382 retracement of the recent decline – a bounce to $42 is possible in the short term.
• Bonds – Bonds declined after today's auction and may have started an important decline. This week is Weekly Reversal Timing from Starkey and that could give us an important top.
• Crude oil – Crude oil has bounced back with a vengeance but the rally pattern on the 5 min chart looks corrective.
• Dollar index – The Dollar Index has rallied in a 5-wave EW impulse wave off the 4/28 low and is currently declining correctively. The Euro is in danger of collapsing over the next couple of months. Shorting the Euro on rallies. The next phase of the sovereign debt crisis may have arrived.

   

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

The 12-wk cycle low arrived to gold and silver last week – however, this may just be the Wave A down of large EW a-b-c correction that could extend into the next 12-wk cycle low due in late July.

     

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.78 -.05) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – IT HAS BEEN DEAD MONEY AND SHOULD BE CONSIDERED AS A SOURCE OF FUNDS FOR other PM juniors with a better looking chart.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.23 -.04) – The Japanese nuclear plant cooling issues caused panic selling today in all things uranium – we are holding for higher prices. Uranium stocks are playing catch up to the rest of the commodity complex. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
• Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.66 -.01) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
• Prophecy Resource (PCY.V, C$0.70 -.00) - Normal profit taking going on here after a large run up last year. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.1610 -.005) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – May 9, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

5/09/11 (Commentary for Monday) The Dollar Index put in an important intermediate low on 4/28 and this may keep gold, silver, and oil in a trading range into the 6/13 Pi cycle turn window. The Euro also gave us an EW 5-wave decline pattern – the current corrective rally on the 5 min chart should be shorted. There are four signs of a major top in the stock market: (1) the peaking of the OIH and XOI indices in early April, (2) the outperformance of healthcare and other defensive sectors in April, (3) the apparent bottom of the Dollar Index on April 28, and (4) the intermediate-term top in silver on 4/25 and gold on 5/2. A retest of the highs for gold and oil should happen by 6/13 and if the NDX takes out the 5/2 high – another leg up in the SPX is possible into 6/13. Commodities are making a major top - peaking a 60 year high – but final rallies are possible into mid-June. The fierce decline seen last week in the PM sector was just probably Wave A of an EW a-b-c correction that should last into late July. Bonds still are getting a bid as flight-to-quality money comes in from stocks, however, this week is a Weekly Reversal Timing Window and we are expecting an important top. The Euro is in danger of collapse – sell the Euro on bounces.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) –  The SPX is topping the rally from March 2009. A final leg is possible going into the next Pi Cycle date (6/13) at a time when the Fed plans to stop its QE2 campaign – raising cash levels is important here. We should see a big correction begin in June.

 

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Important intermediate tops were made in gold and silver – silver ($49.20) on 4/25 and gold ($1577) on 5/2. A retest of these tops should occur by 6/13 before a C-wave down into late July/early August – the next 12-wk cycle low. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until the next 12-wk cycle low around late July before making initial purchases – silver could be back down to the $35 level by then.

      

• Stocks – The SPX got a sizeable bounce today but the rally looked tentative – waiting for a money flow buy signal before scalping the market long
• Gold – Gold rallied hard above $1500. A B-Wave rally to test the highs by early June is underway.
• Silver – Silver bounced hard today – a bounce to $42 is possible in the short term.
• Bonds – Bonds appear close to finishing a corrective rally from February on the daily chart. This week is Weekly Reversal Timing from Starkey and that could give us an important top. Taking out last week's high could give us a reversal down.
• Crude oil – Crude oil bounced back with a vengeance but the rally pattern on the 5 min chart looked corrective.
• Dollar index – The Dollar Index has rallied in a 5-wave EW impulse wave off the 4/28 low. The Euro is in danger of collapsing over the next couple of months. Shorting the Euro on rallies. The next phase of the sovereign debt crisis may have arrived.

   

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

The 12-wk cycle low arrived to gold and silver last week – however, this may just be the Wave A down of large EW a-b-c correction that could extend into the next 12-wk cycle low due in late July.

     

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.83 +.08) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – IT HAS BEEN DEAD MONEY AND SHOULD BE CONSIDERED AS A SOURCE OF FUNDS FOR other PM juniors with a better looking chart.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.27 +.07) – The Japanese nuclear plant cooling issues caused panic selling today in all things uranium – we are holding for higher prices. Uranium stocks are playing catch up to the rest of the commodity complex. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
• Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.67 +.06) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
• Prophecy Resource (PCY.V, C$0.70 -.08) - Normal profit taking going on here after a large run up last year. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.1660 -.00) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly JDV Market Timer – May 8, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

5/8/11 (Commentary for Sunday) There are four signs of a major top in the stock market: (1) the peaking of the OIH and XOI indices in early April, (2) the outperformance of healthcare and other defensive sectors in April, (3) the apparent bottom of the Dollar Index on April 28, and (4) the intermediate-term top in silver on 4/25 and gold on 5/2. A retest of the highs for gold and oil should happen by 6/13. If the NDX takes out the 5/2 high – another leg up in the SPX is possible into 6/13. We expected a big decline in commodities but not into mid-June or so. The fierce decline seen last week in the PM sector was just probably Wave A of an EW a-b-c correction that should last into late July. Bonds still are getting a bid as flight-to-quality money comes in from stocks, however, this week is a Weekly Reversal Timing Window and we are expecting an important top. The Dollar Index appears to have made an important low on 4/28 and the Euro has reversed sharply in the face of the news from Greece. The Euro is in danger of collapse – sell the Euro on bounces.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) –  The SPX is topping the rally from March 2009. A final leg is possible going into the next Pi Cycle date (6/13) at a time when the Fed plans to stop its QE2 campaign – raising cash levels is important here. We should see a big correction begin in June.

 

   

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – Important intermediate tops were made in gold and silver – silver ($49.20) on 4/25 and gold ($1577) on 5/2. A retest of these tops should occur by 6/13 before a C-wave down into late July/early August – the next 12-wk cycle low. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until the next 12-wk cycle low around late July before making initial purchases – silver could be back down to the $35 level by then.

      

• Stocks – The fact that defensive sectors outperformed the market in April is a warning sign of an important top. The fact the Dollar Index made an important low on 4/28 also should be a headwind for the SPX.
• Gold – Gold touched the lower end of the $1570-$1650 range in the New Moon Timing Window and then declined by over $100. A B-Wave rally to test the highs by early June is underway.
• Silver – Silver's double top in the New Moon Timing Window gave a great shorting opportunity but we failed to take advantage of the put opportunities. A B-Wave test into the mid-40s is possible by early June before a C-wave decline into late July.
• Bonds – Bonds remained resilient in the face of a weak stock market. This week is Weekly Reversal Timing from Starkey and that could give us an important top. Taking out last week's high could give us a reversal down.
• Crude oil – The OIH took out the March lows last week. The peaking of the OIH and XOI in early April signaled an imminent top to crude. Crude oil peaked on 5/2 in the New Moon Timing Window - we may see a test of the highs going into early June.
• Dollar index – The Dollar Index appears to have made an important intermediate low on 4/28. The Euro is in danger of collapsing over the next couple of months. Short the Euro on rallies. The next phase of the sovereign debt crisis may have arrived.

   

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

The 12-wk cycle low arrived to gold and silver last week – however, this may just be the Wave A down of large EW a-b-c correction that could extend into the next 12-wk cycle low due in late July.

     

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.75 -.02) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – IT HAS BEEN DEAD MONEY AND SHOULD BE CONSIDERED AS A SOURCE OF FUNDS FOR other PM juniors with a better looking chart.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.23 +.03) – The Japanese nuclear plant cooling issues caused panic selling today in all things uranium – we are holding for higher prices. Uranium stocks are playing catch up to the rest of the commodity complex. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
• Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.61 -.01) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
• Prophecy Resource (PCY.V, C$0.78 -.01) - Normal profit taking going on here after a large run up last year. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.1660 -.004) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – May 5, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

5/5/11 (Commentary for Thursday) Silver, gold and oil saw dramatic declines today as margin calls got sold into. The 12-wk cycle low for gold should be bottoming here. A retest of the highs for gold and the SPX should happen by 6/13. We expected a big decline in commodities but not into mid-June or so. The fierce decline seen this week may be just an EW 4^th wave correction on the daily and weekly charts for the SPX and metals. Leading stocks have been liquidated in recent days as economic statistics continue to disappoint, however, the EW patterns since the July 2010 low and the 1/28/11 low argue that one more rally leg is due into the 6/13 PI Cycle turn date.. Even so, the decline in silver from 49.50 to 38 is getting close to the 33% decline expected after a major top – we should have sold core PM positions going into this decline. Bonds still are getting a bid as flight-to-quality money comes in from stocks, however, next week is a Weekly Reversal Timing Window and we are expecting an important top. Today's market gave us more declines in the commodity sector (OIH, XOI, HUI). The energy sector (OIH and XOI) peaked in early April and warned us of being in the late stages of the oil rally, but an al-Qaida attack on the Saudi oil pipeline could drive this market over $150 in a heartbeat. The Dollar Index roared higher today but we are still expecting a move down to the lower .70s by June – this should help propel gold, silver and oil to their target highs by early June. The Euro is in danger of collapse after early June.

 

Big Picture on Stocks – From our perspective, we are the later stages of the stock market run from March 2009. The SPX got the scary decline into 3/14 needed to propel the last up into May/June. Our bias is for an "inflationary blow off" into the next Martin Armstrong Day in June 2011 at a time when the Fed plans to stop its QE2 campaign – some indices like the SPX could actually test their all-time highs. We should see a big correction begin in June.

 

   

Big Picture on PMs – The 12-wk and 48-wk lows bottomed around 1/28 amidst 52-wk lows in bullish sentiment and the latest low in PMs occurred on Monday – WE ARE NOW ENTERING THE ACCELERATION PHASE HIGHER in the PM sector – Wednesday's action confirmed that the recent 12-wk cycle lows have bottomed. A strong rally into May/June to around $1650 gold and ~$53 silver is possible. The PMs should suffer a large correction starting in early June. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until the next 12-wk cycle low around late July before making initial purchases – silver could be back down to the $35 level by then.

      

• Stocks – The SPX is holding up reasonably well despite the hard selling in some leadership stocks. Looking for a low by Monday and then a rally leg into June that should test the highs.
• Gold – Silver and gold continue to sell off but the weaker than expected economic numbers argue for the next round of QE. We need an impulsive rally soon to reconfirm the rally phase. A 12-wk cycle low is due no later than this week.
• Silver – Silver continues to decline but it is almost too late to sell if you are an un-leveraged investor – after 4 consecutive days of heavy selling (hardest since 1983) a large bounce is overdue but the charts have not shown a bottoming pattern yet.
• Bonds – Bonds remained resilient in the face of a weak stock market. Next week is Weekly Reversal Timing from Starkey and that should give us an important top.
• Crude oil – Oil got gutted for +10$ as forced margin liquidation rippled through commodity markets. A super spike to $120-150 is still possible but the OIH and XOI have both confirmed a top and are indicating that the rally in oil is in its last legs barring an actual physical supply disruption in Saudi Arabia. The last up leg in crude will be propelled by a mini-crash of the dollar into June.
• Dollar index – The Dollar Index bounced on the news from Portugal and may be making a major low here. It is still possible for the Dollar Index to test the low .70s before June and this should translate into gold around $1650 and oil higher than $125. The Dollar Index is close to a major low – the Euro is in danger of collapsing starting in early June.

   

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

The decline in Sunday overnight trading argues that silver's 12-wk cycle low will arrive Monday. The New Moon on 5/3 should give us a short-term peak in the SPX.

     

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.77 +.02) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – IT HAS BEEN DEAD MONEY AND SHOULD BE CONSIDERED AS A SOURCE OF FUNDS FOR other PM juniors with a better looking chart.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.20 -.21) – The Japanese nuclear plant cooling issues caused panic selling today in all things uranium – we are holding for higher prices. Uranium stocks are playing catch up to the rest of the commodity complex. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
• Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.62 -.00) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
• Prophecy Resource (PCY.V, C$0.79 -.01) - Normal profit taking going on here after a large run up last year. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.17 +.009) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – May 4, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

5/4/11 (Commentary for Wednesday) Back-to back Large Divergent Rallies in the Option Premium Ratio argue that we are close to an important low in the SPX. Leading stocks have been liquidated in recent days as economic statistics continue to disappoint, however, the EW patterns since the July 2010 low and the 1/28/11 low argue that one more rally leg is due into the 6/13 PI Cycle turn date. Gold and silver continue to pullback and we could have seen an important intermediate top in the PMs however, EW patterns on the daily and weekly argue for one more rally leg up into 6/13. The current decline counts best as a 4^th wave decline. Even so, the decline in silver from 49.50 to 38 is getting close to the 33% decline expected after a major top – we should have sold core PM positions going into this decline. Bonds still are getting a bid as flight-to-quality money comes in from stocks, however, next week is a Weekly Reversal Timing Window and we are expecting an important top. Today's market gave us more declines in the commodity sector (OIH, XOI, HUI). The energy sector (OIH and XOI) has peaked for this cycle and warns that we are in the late stages of the oil rally, but an al-Qaida attack on the Saudi oil pipeline could drive this market over $150 in a heartbeat. The Dollar Index continued its rally today but we are still expecting a move down to the lower .70s by June – this should help propel gold, silver and oil to their target highs by early June. The Euro is in danger of collapse after early June.

 

Big Picture on Stocks – From our perspective, we are the later stages of the stock market run from March 2009. The SPX got the scary decline into 3/14 needed to propel the last up into May/June. Our bias is for an "inflationary blow off" into the next Martin Armstrong Day in June 2011 at a time when the Fed plans to stop its QE2 campaign – some indices like the SPX could actually test their all-time highs. We should see a big correction begin in June.

 

   

Big Picture on PMs – The 12-wk and 48-wk lows bottomed around 1/28 amidst 52-wk lows in bullish sentiment and the latest low in PMs occurred on Monday – WE ARE NOW ENTERING THE ACCELERATION PHASE HIGHER in the PM sector – Wednesday's action confirmed that the recent 12-wk cycle lows have bottomed. A strong rally into May/June to around $1650 gold and ~$53 silver is possible. The PMs should suffer a large correction starting in early June. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until the next 12-wk cycle low around late July before making initial purchases – silver could be back down to the $35 level by then.

      

• Stocks – Back-to-back Large Divergent Rallies in the Option Premium Ratio argue that we are close to a major low in the SPX. Looking for one more rally into 6/13.
• Gold – Silver and gold continue to sell off but the weaker than expected economic numbers argue for the next round of QE. We need an impulsive rally soon to reconfirm the rally phase. A 12-wk cycle low is due no later than this week.
• Silver – Silver continues to decline but it is almost too late to sell if you are an un-leveraged investor – after 3 consecutive days of heavy selling an EW 5-wave down decline, a large bounce is overdue. We have a $52.50 target that should be met by early June.
• Bonds – Bonds remained resilient in the face of a weak stock market. Next week is Weekly Reversal Timing from Starkey and that should give us an important top.
• Crude oil – Oil got hit again today on the Dollar Index rally from the Portugal bailout. A super spike to $120-150 is possible but the OIH and XOI have both confirmed a top and are indicating that the rally in oil is in its last legs barring an actual physical supply disruption in Saudi Arabia. The last up leg in crude will be propelled by a mini-crash of the dollar into June.
• Dollar index – The Dollar Index bounced on the news from Portugal. We still are looking for the Dollar Index to test the low .70s before June and this should translate into gold around $1650 and oil higher than $125. The Dollar Index is close to a major low – the Euro is in danger of collapsing starting in early June.

   

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

The decline in Sunday overnight trading argues that silver's 12-wk cycle low will arrive Monday. The New Moon on 5/3 should give us a short-term peak in the SPX.

     

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.75 -.05) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – IT HAS BEEN DEAD MONEY AND SHOULD BE CONSIDERED AS A SOURCE OF FUNDS FOR other PM juniors with a better looking chart.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.41 -.06) – The Japanese nuclear plant cooling issues caused panic selling today in all things uranium – we are holding for higher prices. Uranium stocks are playing catch up to the rest of the commodity complex. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
• Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.62 -.01) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
• Prophecy Resource (PCY.V, C$0.80 -.04) - Normal profit taking going on here after a large run up last year. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.161 -.001) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – May 4, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

5/4/11 (Commentary for Wednesday Back-to back Large Divergent Rallies in the Option Premium Ratio argue that we are close to an important low in the SPX. Leading stocks have been liquidated in recent days as economic statistics continue to disappoint, however, the EW patterns since the July 2010 low and the 1/28/11 low argue that one more rally leg is due into the 6/13 PI Cycle turn date. Gold and silver continue to pullback and we could have seen an important intermediate top in the PMs however, EW patterns on the daily and weekly argue for one more rally leg up into 6/13. The current decline counts best as a 4^th wave decline. Even so, the decline in silver from 49.50 to 38 is getting close to the 33% decline expected after a major top – we should have sold core PM positions going into this decline. Bonds still are getting a bid as flight-to-quality money comes in from stocks, however, next week is a Weekly Reversal Timing Window and we are expecting an important top. Today's market gave us more declines in the commodity sector (OIH, XOI, HUI). The energy sector (OIH and XOI) has peaked for this cycle and warns that we are in the late stages of the oil rally, but an al-Qaida attack on the Saudi oil pipeline could drive this market over $150 in a heartbeat. The Dollar Index continued its rally today but we are still expecting a move down to the lower .70s by June – this should help propel gold, silver and oil to their target highs by early June. The Euro is in danger of collapse after early June.

 

Big Picture on Stocks – From our perspective, we are the later stages of the stock market run from March 2009. The SPX got the scary decline into 3/14 needed to propel the last up into May/June. Our bias is for an "inflationary blow off" into the next Martin Armstrong Day in June 2011 at a time when the Fed plans to stop its QE2 campaign – some indices like the SPX could actually test their all-time highs. We should see a big correction begin in June.

 

   

Big Picture on PMs – The 12-wk and 48-wk lows bottomed around 1/28 amidst 52-wk lows in bullish sentiment and the latest low in PMs occurred on Monday – WE ARE NOW ENTERING THE ACCELERATION PHASE HIGHER in the PM sector – Wednesday's action confirmed that the recent 12-wk cycle lows have bottomed. A strong rally into May/June to around $1650 gold and ~$53 silver is possible. The PMs should suffer a large correction starting in early June. New buyers of gold and silver should wait until the next 12-wk cycle low around late July before making initial purchases – silver could be back down to the $35 level by then.

      

• Stocks – Back-to-back Large Divergent Rallies in the Option Premium Ratio argue that we are close to a major low in the SPX. Looking for one more rally into 6/13.
• Gold – Silver and gold continue to sell off but the weaker than expected economic numbers argue for the next round of QE. We need an impulsive rally soon to reconfirm the rally phase. A 12-wk cycle low is due no later than this week.
• Silver – Silver continues to decline but it is almost too late to sell if you are an un-leveraged investor – after 3 consecutive days of heavy selling an EW 5-wave down decline, a large bounce is overdue. We have a $52.50 target that should be met by early June.
• Bonds – Bonds remained resilient in the face of a weak stock market. Next week is Weekly Reversal Timing from Starkey and that should give us an important top.
• Crude oil – Oil got hit again today on the Dollar Index rally from the Portugal bailout. A super spike to $120-150 is possible but the OIH and XOI have both confirmed a top and are indicating that the rally in oil is in its last legs barring an actual physical supply disruption in Saudi Arabia. The last up leg in crude will be propelled by a mini-crash of the dollar into June.
• Dollar index – The Dollar Index bounced on the news from Portugal. We still are looking for the Dollar Index to test the low .70s before June and this should translate into gold around $1650 and oil higher than $125. The Dollar Index is close to a major low – the Euro is in danger of collapsing starting in early June.

   

TURNING POINT DAY:

 

The decline in Sunday overnight trading argues that silver's 12-wk cycle low will arrive Monday. The New Moon on 5/3 should give us a short-term peak in the SPX.

     

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.75 -.05) - Lackluster management and marketing have kept this gem back during a period of speculative enthusiasm for PM junior miners. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  It is remarkable that this company with two rather obvious world-class deposits is failing to get any traction – IT HAS BEEN DEAD MONEY AND SHOULD BE CONSIDERED AS A SOURCE OF FUNDS FOR other PM juniors with a better looking chart.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.41 -.06) – The Japanese nuclear plant cooling issues caused panic selling today in all things uranium – we are holding for higher prices. Uranium stocks are playing catch up to the rest of the commodity complex. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
• Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.62 -.01) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
• Prophecy Resource (PCY.V, C$0.80 -.04) - Normal profit taking going on here after a large run up last year. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.161 -.001) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.