The Weekly JDV Market Timer - January 31, 2010

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - New Update (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

1/31/10 (Commentary for Sunday) The volume spike on Friday's decline gave us a whiff of short-term capitulation - the SPX and NDX gave us a clear 5-wave decline into the Full Moon Timing Window - expecting a reversal by Monday. A gap down opening on Monday should be bought for a spirited corrective bounce. Gold stock sentiment last week was at 26 wk lows on whispernumber.com - it must be truly crushed after Friday's late capitulation. The reduction of the speculative long element in the Comex COTs is sufficient to give us a strong trading rally here. The "bubble talk" thrown at gold in the last few days also adds to the element of a short-term sentiment extreme. Bonds are topping for the short term but could have a run into the spring. The Dollar Index has finished a 5-wave advance on the daily chart from the early December lows - looking for a corrective reversal to start this week. 

  

Long Term on Stocks- The market started a correction in the New Noon/Solar Eclipse timing window - the correction could run into late March/early April.  A 3-wave corrective bounce this week could solidify the picture that a major top was made on 1/20. A wedgy, low volume advance from July that ended with euphoric sentiment indicators was reversed with a high volume decline after spectacular earnings were released by several stock market leaders - this argues that an important top was made.

 

Long Term on PMs- Gold stated an intermediate correction on 12/3. Gold took out the $1075 low so we are only looking for a B-wave test of the $1227 high into mid-February's seasonal high before a reversal into a late March low. 

• Stock - The SPX and NDX gave  us a 5-wave decline into Friday and the Full Moon Timing Window. A gap down opening on Monday should be bought for a spirited corrective bounce. The McClellan Oscillator is at very low levels (-275) and argues for a big bounce.  
• Gold - Gold gave us a weekly low the day after the 55-day Fibonacci step out from the 12/3 high but kept getting pulled down by the Full Moon Timing Window on Saturday. Monday is a 21 day step out from the 1/11 high and with the passing of the Full Moon, we should see a sharp reversal up on Monday.   We need to focus on the juniors here - the GDXJ is a good vehicle. Other favorites include VIT.V, ICI.TO, SVM and CMIN.OB. The CDNX ( a proxy for Canadian junior miners) could DOUBLE by April 2010.
• Silver – Silver has been thrashed since the 1/11 corrective high - looking for a reversal up on Monday. 
• Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing an important up channel line after a steep decline from early January - looking for a reversal back up on Monday. 
• Bonds-  Bonds are at short-term resistance - corrective pull backs this week should be bought.
• Dollar- The Dollar Index has finished a 5-wave advance on the daily chart from early Decmber - looking for a reversal down on Monday.   
• Grains- The grain markets are setting up for a substantial rally this week - a dollar reversal will be a key catalyst. 

TURNING POINT DAY:

 The New Moon/Solar Eclipse on Friday, 1/15 has generated an important top. The Full Moon Timing window this weekend should give world markets a short-term bottom here. We need to make some impulsive rallies Monday to confirm a low.

Depression Beater Portfolio: New Updates:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

    SOLD  200 shrs of CHK @ $20.82 on 4/16/09

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

    SOLD 1000 shrs of DXO at $2.97 on 4/17/09

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

    SOLD  500 shrs at $5.62 on 4/16/09

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

SOLD 500 shrs at $8.77 on 4/16/09

SOLD 500 shrs at $8.30 on 4/21/09

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

 SOLD 200 shrs of AMSC @ $20.36 on 4/17/09

 

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

14) Bought 1000 shrs of KBX @ $1.15 on 12/22/09

 

Working orders:

1) Buy 1000 shrs AAU @$0.95 GTC