All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - July 30, 2009

7/30/09 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX exploded above the recent congestion zone in a 5-wave pattern as recent opinion polls (AAII, I, WS Survey) are showing a big swing higher in bullish sentiment. If it didn't peak today, the market should register a high in the 7/31 - 8/3 turn window and start pulling back. People have gotten the hang of buying early weakness and selling near the close - the market will begin to frustrate the "johnny come latelies".  The HUI/XAU appears to need one more leg up tomorrow to finish what appears to be a corrective bounce before making lower lows in early August. The explosive rally in the PM sector has just been postponed. The 36 wk gold cycle low has bottomed and based on other bottoms of this cycle and the position of the bull market - a $300 rally in gold by the fall is possible.  The bonds look bullish here  - there's a Merriman turn date on 7/31 and a short-term low may be already in. 

 

• Stocks - The  SPX resolved higher in a "post-congestion" thrust today that may be complete. More rally is possible into the Turn Window on 7/31-8/3 before significant downside but rising bullish sentiment says this rally is close to a turn. Next week has very strong Starkey Reversal Timing and that could mark a top for the SPX.  
•  Gold – Today's bounce was probably corrective but the price pattern from February is tracing out a triangle with the recent decline as Wave E - the explosive rally has just been delayed for a short time.  Our bias is that a substantial rally for gold from mid-July into September is underway. 
• Silver – Silver confirmed Weekly Reversal Timing down on Monday - today's rally was probably corrective and we could see additional weakness into early August. However, an explosive rally is possible in early August.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil bounced hard and the OIH came back to fill the gap from yesterday - we may see another rally attempt tomorrow.  
• Bonds - The bonds are looking bullish here - a big Turn Date around 7/31 was due and the low may be in. Missed buying Jul 92 TLT calls by .05.  
• Dollar - Dollar sentiment should have tipped us off to the strength of yesterday's rally - should see further rally next week.  

TURNING POINT DAY:

The 7/31-8/3 Merriman turn window for stocks argues for a short-term top in the stock market.

Depression Beater Portfolio: New Updates:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

    SOLD  200 shrs of CHK @ $20.82 on 4/16/09

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

    SOLD 1000 shrs of DXO at $2.97 on 4/17/09

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

    SOLD  500 shrs at $5.62 on 4/16/09

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.77 on 4/16/09

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.30 on 4/21/09

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

     SOLD 200 shrs of AMSC @ $20.36 on 4/17/09

 

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - July 29, 2009

7/29/09 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX pulled back today but the inflation indices were hit hard by the large rise in oil inventories. Our MO\OPR sell signal from Monday gave us a weak opening and the markets never fully recovered. The Merriman 7/25 Turn window for gold looks was confirmed to be a top by today's weak price action in gold - Starkey 1-Day Reversal timing was "not confirmed" - a sign of weakness for the PM sector. The runaway advance in gold was ruled out by yesterday's price decline but the price action since February on the daily chart now appears to be a triangle that is in the final Wave E down of its pattern. The explosive rally in the PM sector has just been postponed. The 36 wk gold cycle low has bottomed and based on other bottoms of this cycle and the position of the bull market - a $300 rally in gold by the fall is possible.  The bonds appear set to rally after the Treasury auction is completed - there's a Merriman turn date on 7/31. 

 

• Stocks - The MO\OPR sell signal from Monday hit home today with help from  bloated oil inventory numbers  - but the price pattern of a running triangle on the SPX looks to resolve higher into the Turn Window on 7/31-8/3 before significant downside. Next week has very strong Starkey Reversal Timing and that could mark a top for the SPX.  
•  Gold – The large pull back today and yesterday eliminated the possibility of a runaway move here - but the price pattern from February is tracing out a triangle with the recent decline as Wave E - the explosive rally has just been delayed for a short time.  Our bias is that a substantial rally for gold from mid-July into September is underway. 
• Silver – Silver confirmed Weekly Reversal Timing on Monday - we exceeded last week's high before reversing down. Today's feeble  response to Starkey 1-Day Reversal Timing puts a weak tone on this market. 
• Crude Oil – Crude oil was bushwacked by the oil inventory numbers and our  OIH Jul 105 calls are way down - should see a corrective bounce tomorrow.  
• Bonds - The bonds price action is looking constructive here - a big Turn Date around 7/31 is due and it looks like a low.
• Dollar - Dollar sentiment should have tipped us off to the strength of today's rally.  

TURNING POINT DAY:

The 7/25 Merriman turn day for gold was confirmed to be a high today. 

Depression Beater Portfolio: New Updates:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

    SOLD  200 shrs of CHK @ $20.82 on 4/16/09

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

    SOLD 1000 shrs of DXO at $2.97 on 4/17/09

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

    SOLD  500 shrs at $5.62 on 4/16/09

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.77 on 4/16/09

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.30 on 4/21/09

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

     SOLD 200 shrs of AMSC @ $20.36 on 4/17/09

 

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - July 28, 2009

7/28/09 (Commentary for Tuesday) Once again the bears took the SPX down early until lunchtime and the bears rallied it into the close. Price action the last few days resembles a "running triangle" and this implies a move to higher highs is imminent before another correction attempt. Our MO\OPR sell signal from Monday is still in effect for tomorrow, so early weakness would not surprise us Wednesday but a move to higher highs by Monday is likely. The Merriman 7/25 Turn window for gold looks like a top but Starkey 1-Day Reversal on Wednesday may turn us back up - it appears that the size of the decline in gold today rules out a "runaway market" in the very short term, but the PM sector should track the other inflation sectors as the market moves higher into August.  The 36 wk gold cycle low has bottomed and based on other bottoms of this cycle and the position of the bull market - a $300 rally in gold by the fall is possible.  Bonds rallied on early market weakness but the huge  $200 B auction calendar  needs to be well-digested before a sustained move higher.  

 

TURNING POINT DAY:

The 7/25 Merriman turn day for gold appears to be a high - the price action in gold and silver should tell us in the next few days. We need to take out the 7/23 high in gold to reinstate the short-term bullish case. 

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: New Updates:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

    SOLD  200 shrs of CHK @ $20.82 on 4/16/09

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

    SOLD 1000 shrs of DXO at $2.97 on 4/17/09

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

    SOLD  500 shrs at $5.62 on 4/16/09

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.77 on 4/16/09

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.30 on 4/21/09

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

     SOLD 200 shrs of AMSC @ $20.36 on 4/17/09

 

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market TImer - July 27, 2009

7/27/09 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX tried to decline early but the bulls brought it back - the appearance of gridlock in Washington (on health care and other tax the rich strategies) is supporting the market. Our MO\OPR sell signal from Friday is still in effect for tomorrow and we got an additional sell signal today. The Merriman 7/25 Turn window for gold is still in the "Fuzzy Interpretation Zone" - it could apply to the high on 7/23 or the shallow pullback that we say today as a low - tomorrow should tell us and whichever way gold breaks here, the overall market should follow. The EW pattern for gold looks like the 3rd of a 3rd wave up - more bullish than the broad market. The 36 wk gold cycle low has bottomed - buy gold and silver stocks on dips.  Bonds declined and appear to be seeking new short-term lows as the huge auction $200 B calendar this week rolls through.  

 

• Stocks - The MO\OPR sell signal from Friday is still in effect and we got an additional MO\OPR sell signal at today's close. We should see some volatility tomorrow - to the downside perhaps. Starkey Projected low timing  for the SPX lands next week.  The Wave C up from the March low could be a parabolic blow off. 
•  Gold – Gold is in a sideways pattern as we approach the 7/25 Merriman turn day for the PM sector. Gold bullish sentiment dropped by 50% from 7/10 (17.4%) to 7/17 (8.5 %) on whispernumber.com - very bullish in the near term. If the HUI/XAU is demonstrating the DNA of a runaway market - then pull backs here should be minimal - buy on dips - gold could make an all-time high by the end of July - very few analysts are expecting a big move up in the short term.  Our bias is that a substantial rally for gold from mid-July into September is underway. 
• Silver – Silver is looking stronger than  gold and could possibly be in a Wave 3 - the 7/25 turn window looks key for a strong turn up. Buy silver and silver stocks on dips.  SVM is our favorite silver stock. 
• Crude Oil – Crude oil looking strong here - buy OIH on dips.  
• Bonds - Bonds declined today - the Treasury auctions this week are weighing heavily on this market.
• Dollar - The dollar appears to be rallying correctively here - another small leg up tomorrow looks likely.   Fed Balance sheet may be driving the dollar down - looking for a sharp move down soon. 

TURNING POINT DAY:

The 7/25 Merriman turn day for gold could ignite a big reversal to the upside - however, this date might refer to the top on 7/23 - tomorrow's action should tell the tale. 

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: New Updates:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

    SOLD  200 shrs of CHK @ $20.82 on 4/16/09

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

    SOLD 1000 shrs of DXO at $2.97 on 4/17/09

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

    SOLD  500 shrs at $5.62 on 4/16/09

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.77 on 4/16/09

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.30 on 4/21/09

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

     SOLD 200 shrs of AMSC @ $20.36 on 4/17/09

 

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - July 26, 2009

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - No Update (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

7/26/09 (Commentary for Sunday) We got some negative earnings news from Microsoft and others on Friday but the market refused to stay down. The sentiment polls are still largely negative so the market appears poised for more gains into the fall. It's the very short term here that is the issue. A small change in the McClellan Oscillator (-6.31) and a Large Divergent Decline in the Option Premium Ratio argue for a SPX decline on Monday - we'll see if we can get a substantial down day. Last week we said: "It's been 30 years ago in the summer of 1979 that the PM sector went parabolic for six months - a repeat performance of this should be watched for - follow the relative performance of the HUI/XAU to the SPX during the pull back early this week - strong relative strength by the PM sector would argue that we have a parabolic move in the making despite chronic deflationary forces that threaten a smack down"- last week, both the SPX and NDX took out the 6/11 highs but the HUI/XAU and the OIH did not - the inflation sectors underperformed technology and the financials, so the runaway gold market has not been observed yet.  Bonds look weak here  - looking for lower prices.

• Gold - The important 36 wk low has bottomed in gold and the PM sector may be making a run to all time highs - the price action the last few days suggests a sideways pattern going into the 7/25 Merriman Turning Point Day - Monday's action should be key. Watch the relative strength of the HUI/XAU versus the SPX on the correction this week - will give us a clue to the power of this gold rally - so far the HUI/XAU has been lagging the SPX which took out their 6/11 highs last week. If the XAU takes out 160 next week and gold makes an all-time high, we could be in a runaway market - a wave 3 of 3 up since the rally started in 4/2001 - we need confirmation though. We believe that a mania in gold stocks will be evident by fall as all the "bank reserves" added by panicked governments begins to appear in the M2 monetary statistics. 
• Stock - The McClellan Oscillator and the Option Premium Ratio argue for a big move down on Monday - market sentiment here argues for us to buy the dips.  
• Silver – Looking stronger than gold - need to see upside breakout this week to validate the super bullish scenario. 
•  Crude Oil – It has really paid to buy the OIH on dips since 7/13. 
• Bonds - Bonds look weaker here but a complex correction could develop.  
• Dollar - The dollar's chart looks uncertain to me for Monday - current unwinding of currency swaps on the Fed balance sheet argues for a chronically weak dollar in the short term and increasing instability in the currency markets that could add to the sails of the PM sector.  

TURNING POINT DAY:

The Merriman 7/25 Turn Day in the PM sector should be watched closely this week  - gold and the PM stocks need to explode up from here to keep the "runaway market" scenario alive. 

Depression Beater Portfolio: New Updates:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

    SOLD  200 shrs of CHK @ $20.82 on 4/16/09

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

    SOLD 1000 shrs of DXO at $2.97 on 4/17/09

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

    SOLD  500 shrs at $5.62 on 4/16/09

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.77 on 4/16/09

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.30 on 4/21/09

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

     SOLD 200 shrs of AMSC @ $20.36 on 4/17/09

 

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - July 23, 2009

7/23/09 (Commentary for Thursday) We got the big move up as predicted yesterday and the new 52 week highs really staged a breakout - the HUI/XAU lost it's gains late in the day and may be auguring that the SPX will see weakness early Friday. A Divergent Decline on the Option Premium Ratio also argues for some weakness early tomorrow.  The PM sector appears to be in some kind of sideways correction here as we approach the Merriman 7/25 turn window for gold. If the PM sector is really tracing out a runaway advance, its retracement here should be minimal - a large pull back will invalidate the most bullish scenario. The EW pattern looks like the 3rd of a 3rd wave up - more bullish than the broad market. The 36 wk gold cycle low has bottomed - buy gold and silver stocks on dips.  Bonds declined and appear to be seeking new short-term lows.  

 

• Stocks - The SPX advanced with a surge in volume to take out the 6/11 high - lots of put buying here and skeptical sentiment are driving forces. A Divergent Decline on the OPR argues for weakness early tomorrow as does the late weakness in the PM sector. The Wave C up from the March low could be a parabolic blow off. 
•  Gold – Gold is in a sideways pattern as we approach the 7/25 Merriman turn day for the PM sector. Gold bullish sentiment dropped by 50% from 7/10 (17.4%) to 7/17 (8.5 %) on whispernumber.com - very bullish in the near term. If the HUI/XAU is demonstrating the DNA of a runaway market - then pull backs here should be minimal - buy on dips - gold could make an all-time  high by the end of July.  Our bias is that a substantial rally for gold from mid-July into September is underway. 
• Silver – Silver is looking stronger than  gold and could possibly be in a Wave 3 - the 7/25 turn window looks key for a strong turn up. Buy silver and silver stocks on dips.  SVM is our favorite silver stock. 
• Crude Oil – Crude oil looking strong here - buy OIH on dips.  
• Bonds - Bonds declined as predicted - the grains and commodity board got a big wiff of inflation today.
• Dollar - The dollar appears to be rallying correctively here.  Fed Balance sheet may be driving the dollar down - looking for a sharp move down soon. 

TURNING POINT DAY:

The 7/25 Merriman turn day for gold could ignite a big reversal to the upside. 

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: New Updates:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

    SOLD  200 shrs of CHK @ $20.82 on 4/16/09

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

    SOLD 1000 shrs of DXO at $2.97 on 4/17/09

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

    SOLD  500 shrs at $5.62 on 4/16/09

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.77 on 4/16/09

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.30 on 4/21/09

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

     SOLD 200 shrs of AMSC @ $20.36 on 4/17/09

 

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - July 22, 2009

7/22/09 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX held up well into the New Moon/Solar Eclipse turning point today but overall volume did slow - while a New Moon typically peaks an overheated market the action today suggests "a running correction" on the SPX - in EW parlance anyway. The McClellan Oscillator gave us a Big Move signal and the Option Premium Ratio gave us a Divergent Rally Signal which implies an upside breakout here. Money Managers are chasing this market higher after being incorrectly positioned for the "Head and Shoulders" pattern of last week's yore.  The sentiment polls (AAII & Wall Street Investment) all showed very subdued bullish readings last week which augurs for much more upside after the current correction runs its course on Wednesday.  If the PM sector is really tracing out a runaway advance, its retracement here should be minimal - a large pull back will invalidate the most bullish scenario. Indeed, silver gave us a "confirmed" 1-Day Reversal up signal today - bullish for the short term. The EW pattern looks like the 3rd of a 3rd wave up - more bullish than the broad market. The 36 wk gold cycle low has bottomed - buy gold and silver stocks on dips.  The bonds short-term pattern looks corrective - may see lower lows soon.  

 

• Stocks - The Turning Point Day today should reverse the market for a few days in a wave 2 - BUT BEWARE THE RUNNING CORRECTION - a sharp move up after a brief sideways correction would catch a lot of people off guard. The Wave C up from the March low could be a parabolic blow off. 
•  Gold – If the HUI/XAU is demonstrating the DNA of a runaway market - then pull backs here should be minimal - buy on dips - gold could make an all-time  high by the end of July. The large gap in the HUI/XAU may not get filled any time soon. Our bias is that a substantial rally for gold from mid-July into September is underway. 
• Silver – Silver confirmed a bullish 1-Day Reversal to the upside and could possibly be in a Wave 3 from the Martin Armstrong low on 4/21. Buy silver and silver stocks on dips -  SVM is our favorite silver stock. 
• Crude Oil – Crude oil appears to be in a Wave 3 up from the 4/21 Martin Armstrong low  - but the OIH on dips.  
• Bonds -The rally in bonds looks corrective here - may see new lows soon. A sliding dollar would force long rates up. 
• Dollar - The dollar looks weak and the contraction of the Fed Balance sheet may be driving the dollar down - looking for a sharp move down soon. 

TURNING POINT DAY:

The New Moon solar eclipse today only slowed the momentum of this fevered rally from 7/13 - so far anyway. 

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: New Updates:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

    SOLD  200 shrs of CHK @ $20.82 on 4/16/09

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

    SOLD 1000 shrs of DXO at $2.97 on 4/17/09

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

    SOLD  500 shrs at $5.62 on 4/16/09

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.77 on 4/16/09

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.30 on 4/21/09

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

     SOLD 200 shrs of AMSC @ $20.36 on 4/17/09

 

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - July 21, 2009

7/21/09 (Commentary for Tuesday) The EW 5-wave down pattern early today could be the start of the wave 2 of C. We should see at least another leg down tomorrow (after the New Moon & Solar Eclipse has run its course around the world). After tomorrow's Turning Point Day, the market should see a sharp move and odds are it will be down since the New Moon is associated with tops, The sentiment polls (AAII & Wall Street Investment) all showed very subdued bullish readings last week which augurs for much more upside after the current correction runs its course on Wednesday.  If the PM sector is really tracing out a runaway advance, its retracement here should be minimal - a large pull back will invalidate the most bullish scenario. - The EW pattern looks like the 3rd of a 3rd wave up - more bullish than the broad market. The 36 wk gold cycle low has bottomed - buy gold and silver stocks on dips.  Bonds bounced again today but the rally looked corrective - standing aside until we see more data.  

 

• Stocks - The Turning Point Day on 7/22 should reverse the market for a few days in a wave 2 - the market has been resilient though. The Wave C up from the March low could be a parabolic blow off. 
•  Gold – If the HUI/XAU is demonstrating the DNA of a runaway market - then pull backs here should be minimal - buy on dips - gold could make an all-time  high by the end of July. The large gap in the HUI/XAU may not get filled any time soon. Our bias is that a substantial rally for gold from mid-July into September is underway. 
• Silver – Silver is looking strong and could possibly be in a Wave 3. Buy silver and silver stocks on dips - the New Moon solar eclipse that ends tomorrow may give us a quick pull back. SVM is our favorite silver stock. 
• Crude Oil – Crude oil started to pull back today - may see more retracement tomorrow - buy OIH on dips.  
• Bonds - Bonds extended their rally today but it still looks corrective  - more rally tomorrow will put this picture in doubt.
• Dollar - The dollar looks weak and the contraction of the Fed Balance sheet may be driving the dollar down - looking for a sharp move down soon. 

TURNING POINT DAY:

The New Moon solar eclipse on 7/21-7/22 should give us a pull back before the trend turns strongly up. 

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: New Updates:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

    SOLD  200 shrs of CHK @ $20.82 on 4/16/09

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

    SOLD 1000 shrs of DXO at $2.97 on 4/17/09

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

    SOLD  500 shrs at $5.62 on 4/16/09

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.77 on 4/16/09

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.30 on 4/21/09

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

     SOLD 200 shrs of AMSC @ $20.36 on 4/17/09

 

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - July 19, 2009

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - No Update (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

7/19/09 (Commentary for Sunday) Last week was indeed a key week for the financial markets and the market reversals in the PM sector and broad market early Monday gave us an almost completed EW 5-wave advance going into expiration. The SPX has a little more upside before reversing down in a wave 2 correction of this wave c up from Monday. The steady decline in the Option Premium Ratio as the market advanced from Monday argues for a pullback here. The solar eclipse on 7/22 should give us another turn back to the upside. It's been 30 years ago in the summer of 1979 that the PM sector went parabolic for six months - a repeat performance of this should be watched for - follow the relative performance of the HUI/XAU to the SPX during the pull back early this week - strong relative strength by the PM sector would argue that we have a parabolic move in the making despite chronic deflationary forces that threaten a "smackdown".  Bonds are trading heavily here - recent weakness is likely to extend down.

• Gold - The important 36 wk low has bottomed in gold and the PM sector may be making a run to all time highs - the solar eclipse on 7/22 should bottom any pull back this week. Watch the relative strength of the HUI/XAU versus the SPX on the correction this week - will give us a clue to the power of this gold rally. If the XAU takes out 160 next week and gold makes an all-time high by July's end, we could be in a runaway market - a wave 3 of 3 up since the rally started in 4/2001. We believe that a mania in gold stocks will be evident by fall as all the "bank reserves" added by panicked governments begins to appear in the M2 monetary statistics. 
• Stock - The SPX has a little more to run to finish the 5-wave impulse wave from Monday - then we should pull back into the solar eclipse on 7/22.   Targets of SPX ~ 1200 are possible before the C-wave that started Monday runs its course.  
• Silver – Same as gold - looking for brief pull back before a run past $20 into the early fall. 
•  Crude Oil – The OIH has lead oil up - a collapsing dollar will only add fuel to the fire here. 
• Bonds - Bonds are trading heavily here - could see a steeper correction - need to watch more price action.  
• Dollar - The dollar looks like it needs another leg down here  - the dollar is key of course - current unwinding of currency swaps on the Fed balance sheet argues for a chronically weak dollar in the short term and increasing instability in the currency markets that could add to the sails of the PM sector.  

TURNING POINT DAY:

The next Turning Point Day in 7/22 - a solar eclipse which should ideally bottom the PM sector and broad markets this week.

Depression Beater Portfolio: New Updates:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

    SOLD  200 shrs of CHK @ $20.82 on 4/16/09

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

    SOLD 1000 shrs of DXO at $2.97 on 4/17/09

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

    SOLD  500 shrs at $5.62 on 4/16/09

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.77 on 4/16/09

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.30 on 4/21/09

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

     SOLD 200 shrs of AMSC @ $20.36 on 4/17/09

 

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - July 16, 2009

7/16/09 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX appears to have finished an EW 5-waves up from Monday morning while the Option Premium Ratio has declined bearishly the last two days. The stage is set for a pull back tomorrow - a wave 2 correction of the C-wave that started Monday. The PM sector is looking very promising here for an explosive rally - the EW pattern looks like the 3rd of a 3rd wave up - more bullish than the broad market. The 36 wk gold cycle low has bottomed - buy gold and silver stocks on dips.  Bonds bounced correctively - it appears that pull back will extend down.  

 

• Stocks - A 5-wave EW pattern finished today - should correct in a wave 2 tomorrow into early next week.  The Wave C up from the March low could be a parabolic blow off. 
•  Gold – The HUI/XAU looks very strong here and is leading gold up - buy on dips - gold could make an all-time  high by the end of July. The large gap in the HUI/XAU may not get filled any time soon. Our bias is that a substantial rally for gold from mid-July into September may be in the cards. 
• Silver – Silver is looking strong and could possibly be in a Wave 3. Buy silver and silver stocks on dips. SVM is our favorite silver stock. 
• Crude Oil – The OIH and crude oil rallied again - the oil stocks are rallying off a very substantial oversold condition - buy on dips. 
• Bonds - Bonds bounced correctively today -  sold TLT August 93 calls for a scalp profit.
• Dollar - The dollar looks weak and the contraction of the Fed Balance sheet may be driving the dollar down. 

TURNING POINT DAY:

The 7/15-7/17 turning point window should top out the market for a few days. 

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: New Updates:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

    SOLD  200 shrs of CHK @ $20.82 on 4/16/09

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

    SOLD 1000 shrs of DXO at $2.97 on 4/17/09

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

    SOLD  500 shrs at $5.62 on 4/16/09

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.77 on 4/16/09

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.30 on 4/21/09

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

     SOLD 200 shrs of AMSC @ $20.36 on 4/17/09

 

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)