All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 30, 2009

6/30/09 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX gave us a head fake at the open but then proceeded to decline in 5-waves and bounce in 3 - the market should give us another decline early tomorrow to finish at least a minimal EW a-b-c correction. Bonds pulled back on the open and gave us a buying opportunity - bonds appear to be finishing an EW a-b-c flat correction - buy the dip tomorrow.  The gold stocks continued their move down and silver took out its New Moon low - a sign of weakness for the PM sector and the overall. Watch AEM as it fills its recent gap.  

• Stocks - The SPX should make another leg down to finish a minimal EW a-b-c correction.
•  Gold – Gold and gold stocks could be putting in a major low - but the New Moon lows must hold. 
• Silver – Silver broke its New Moon low - a potential sign of weakness for the PM sector and overall market. 
• Crude Oil – Oil made a B-wave top yesterday reversed down - a negative for the market. 
• Bonds - Bonds are a contrarian buy here - buy dips tomorrow.  
• Dollar - The dollar appears ready to move higher tomorrow.

TURNING POINT DAY:

The Bradley Turning Point Day on 6/26 may have turned some key indices down on Monday and early Tuesday. 

Depression Beater Portfolio: New Updates:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

    SOLD  200 shrs of CHK @ $20.82 on 4/16/09

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

    SOLD 1000 shrs of DXO at $2.97 on 4/17/09

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

    SOLD  500 shrs at $5.62 on 4/16/09

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.77 on 4/16/09

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.30 on 4/21/09

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

     SOLD 200 shrs of AMSC @ $20.36 on 4/17/09

 

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 29, 2009

6/29/09 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX continued its rally today but key leading indices like the NDX showed a reversal down around 12:30 EST. The Option Premium Ratio gave us a Divergent Decline and the TRIN5 (4.19) gave us the lowest reading since the early May decline. A surge in index call buying around 12:30 and total option volume in general gave us a sense of euphoria in the market today. The OIH, a leading sector, diverged badly against surging crude oil prices. The market appears to want to make another leg down here.    Bonds moved sideways today - may have started massive rally - buy on dips. Gold stocks appeared to lead the market down today - at least the commodity sectors. Watch AEM as it fills its recent gap.  

• Stocks - The SPX should correct tomorrow - the TRIN5 value is the lowest since the early May peak.
•  Gold – Gold and gold stocks could be putting in a major low - watch AEM as it fills its recent gap. 
• Silver – Silver peaked on the 6/26 Turning Point Day and has declined impulsively - short-term negative for the market. 
• Crude Oil – Oil exploded today but the OIH and XLE lagged behind - a short-term negative for the market. 
• Bonds - Bonds are a contrarian buy here - buy dips.  
• Dollar - The dollar appears ready to bounce hear.

TURNING POINT DAY:

The Bradley Turning Point Day on 6/26 may have turned some key indices down mid-day today. 

Depression Beater Portfolio: New Updates:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

    SOLD  200 shrs of CHK @ $20.82 on 4/16/09

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

    SOLD 1000 shrs of DXO at $2.97 on 4/17/09

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

    SOLD  500 shrs at $5.62 on 4/16/09

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.77 on 4/16/09

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.30 on 4/21/09

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

     SOLD 200 shrs of AMSC @ $20.36 on 4/17/09

 

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - June 29, 2009

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - No Update (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

6/29/09 (Commentary for Sunday) Last week the market bottomed near the New Moon (+ Major Turning Point Day) and rallied into Friday (a Bradley Turning Point Day) - the rally from early Tuesday is either a completed EW a-b-c upside correction of the first wave up of another upswing - Monday's tape should tell us. If we see just a corrective pullback on Monday - the tape will be short-term bullish. Friday saw high volume in the market - not sure what that means at this point - could be just end of quarter window dressing. The House passed the modern incarnation of Smoot Hawley (the horribly misguided "Cap and Trade Climate Bill") late Friday - my gut says that the market will react negatively to this news Monday - it's a gigantic tax on the US economy and seeks to address a non-existent greenhouse gas problem by placing punitive taxes on utilities, steel making, agriculture that will destroy jobs - everyone should write their senator to fight this - our nation is trying to self destruct on a massive scale.  Bonds look strong here - buy on dips. Gold may have finished a large EW a-b-c correction from the February high to the New Moon low early Tuesday -  may be ready to launch a big rally.  

• Gold – The June 19 Merriman Turn Window and the New Moon Low on 6/23 may have bottomed this market - watch the tape closely here. We believe that a mania in gold stocks will be evident by fall as all the "bank reserves" added by panicked governments begins to appear in the M2 monetary statistics.
• Stock - The SPX is at a major decision point - just a corrective pullback on Monday will be short-term bullish.
• Silver – Same as gold - silver could have seen a major low in the 6/19-6/23 time window. 
•  Crude Oil – Oil looked weak on Friday - OIH weakness argues for a short-term pullback Monday. 
• Bonds - Bonds look strong - buy on dips.  
• Dollar - The dollar pattern is not clear to me here  -  price action on Monday should help clear the air.  

TURNING POINT DAY:

We had a Bradley Turning Point Day on Friday 6/26 - should see at least a corrective pullback on Monday.

Depression Beater Portfolio: New Updates:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

    SOLD  200 shrs of CHK @ $20.82 on 4/16/09

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

    SOLD 1000 shrs of DXO at $2.97 on 4/17/09

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

    SOLD  500 shrs at $5.62 on 4/16/09

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.77 on 4/16/09

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.30 on 4/21/09

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

     SOLD 200 shrs of AMSC @ $20.36 on 4/17/09

 

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 25, 2009

6/25/09 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX rallied to finish an EW a-b-c correction from Tuesday's low. Tomorrow is a Bradley Turning Point Day and the market should reverse down. The nature of the pullback will be very enlightening about the short-term - a corrective pullback will be short-term bullish - be agile.   Bonds got a strong bid today - may have started massive rally - buy on dips. Gold stocks were standouts today but should pullback tomorrow with the broad market. Watch AEM as it fills its recent gap.  

• Stocks - The SPX should reverse down tomorrow on the 6/26 Bradley Turning Point Day - the nature of the decline will tell us a lot.
•  Gold – The HUI/XAU was  strong today but the advance from Tuesday morning looks like a finished EW a-b-c correction - a reversal down tomorrow is likely.
• Silver – Same as gold. 
• Crude Oil – Oil appeared to finish an EW a-b-c correction from Tuesday morning - a reversal down tomorrow is likely. 
• Bonds - Bonds are a contrarian buy here - buy dips.  
• Dollar - The dollar declined correctively today - tomorrow's action will be very telling.

TURNING POINT DAY:

The Bradley Turning Point Day tomorrow should reverse the SPX down. 

Depression Beater Portfolio: New Updates:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

    SOLD  200 shrs of CHK @ $20.82 on 4/16/09

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

    SOLD 1000 shrs of DXO at $2.97 on 4/17/09

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

    SOLD  500 shrs at $5.62 on 4/16/09

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.77 on 4/16/09

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.30 on 4/21/09

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

     SOLD 200 shrs of AMSC @ $20.36 on 4/17/09

 

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 23, 2009

6/23/09 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX is showing wide-spread weakness and bounces after the stiff selling of the last ten days have little power. BEWARE - this market is dangerous. A rally into the Fed announcement tomorrow should be shorted. A reversal down then could be dramatic - taking out SPX=875 could lead to a selling avalanche - a possible 3rd of a 3rd wave down. Bonds got a strong bid today - may have started massive rally - buy on dips. Gold stocks were standouts today - watch this sector for leadership - a breakdown in gold could lead the commodity board down.  

• Stocks - MAJOR TOP CONFIRMED ON 6/11 - a big 3rd wave down may have started on Friday - a corrective bounce into the Fed announcement should be shorted - raise cash.
•  Gold – The HUI/XAU was very strong today and outperformed gold - watch gold for leadership - a breakdown in gold will be a sign for a general commodity selloff. 
• Silver – Same as gold. 
• Crude Oil – The Merriman 6/19 Turn Window appears to have brought an intermediate-term decline -got a corrective bounce today. 
• Bonds - Bonds are a contrarian buy here - buy dips.  
• Dollar - The dollar declined today - tomorrow's action will be very teliing.

TURNING POINT DAY:

Monday's  Turning Point Day ended the corrective rally from Wednesday and reversed the market down with a vengeance - could be a 3rd wave. 

Depression Beater Portfolio: New Updates:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

    SOLD  200 shrs of CHK @ $20.82 on 4/16/09

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

    SOLD 1000 shrs of DXO at $2.97 on 4/17/09

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

    SOLD  500 shrs at $5.62 on 4/16/09

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.77 on 4/16/09

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.30 on 4/21/09

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

     SOLD 200 shrs of AMSC @ $20.36 on 4/17/09

 

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 22, 2009

6/22/09 (Commentary for Monday) It appears that the next wave down started Friday - dollar weakness failed to support the XLE or OIH stocks Friday - this telegraphed the market weakness today. The EW 5-wave wave decline from Friday should end early Tuesday - a corrective bounce into the Fed meeting should then ensue. A 3rd of a 3rd wave decline could start later this week - raise cash and look to short.   Bonds got a strong bid today amidst the general market weakness - buy on dips. Gold and gold stocks defied 1-Day Reversal TIming from Starkey today and remained weak - watch this market for leadership.  

• Stocks - MAJOR TOP CONFIRMED ON 6/11 - the next Big Wave down could have started Friday.  Early weakness Tuesday should yield a corrective bounce into the Fed meeting.
• Gold – Gold and PM stocks failed to respond to 1-Day Reversal Timing today - a sign of weakness. Since 2001, gold has made a new high within 15 months of a previous peak - a new high is due this month - failure to achieve this mark could be a major sign of weakness - watch the gold market for leadership . 
• Silver – Silver's pattern is sub-dividing down in a negative way - more decline ahead. 
• Crude Oil – The Merriman 6/19 Turn Window appears to have brought an intermediate-term decline - broad-based commodity weakness ruled the day. 
• Bonds - Bonds got a bid from the market weakness - buy dips.  
• Dollar - The dollar reasserted its upside today - more strength early Tuesday is likely.

TURNING POINT DAY:

Today's Turning Point Day ended the corrective rally from Wednesday and reversed the market down. 

Depression Beater Portfolio: New Updates:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

    SOLD  200 shrs of CHK @ $20.82 on 4/16/09

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

    SOLD 1000 shrs of DXO at $2.97 on 4/17/09

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

    SOLD  500 shrs at $5.62 on 4/16/09

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.77 on 4/16/09

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.30 on 4/21/09

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

     SOLD 200 shrs of AMSC @ $20.36 on 4/17/09

 

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - June 21, 2009

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - No Update (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

6/21/09 (Commentary for Sunday) It appears that an intermediate decline started on 6/11 - we had an EW 5-wave pattern down into the 6/17 Turning Point Day and a corrective looking bounce into expiration. The ideal setup is a rally on Monday that gets shorted. If the  market opens weak, the SPX should be shorted on corrective bounces.  Bonds may wait for the market to sell off before staging a flight-to-quality rally -  if the long bond can be considered a "quality vehicle" anymore. Gold and gold stocks were strong on Friday - rally could have some legs.   It's difficult to put a EW count on this rally from early March - but market historians argue for a pullback before the 3rd leg up takes off - we'll see. Watch the volume on any pullbacks - bearish attempts to sell since the March low have seen low volume - a change in that behavior would be telling.  

• Gold – Friday was confirmed 1-Day Reversal Timing from Starkey & June 19 was a Merriman turn day - this rally could have some legs. We believe that a mania in gold stocks will be evident by fall as all the "bank reserves" added by panicked governments begins to appear in the M2 monetary statistics.
• Stock - Fade rallies into the New Moon & Major Turning Point Day on Monday.
• Silver – Same as gold - silver could have seen a major low on 6/19. 
•  Crude Oil – Oil pulled back correctively into the 6/19 Merriman Turn Window - the rally pattern  from the 6/20 Armstrong turn date does not look completed. 
• Bonds - Bonds should get a big rally if the SPX turns down decisively.  
• Dollar - The dollar may be close to a more significant bounce - sentiment is very bearish.  

TURNING POINT DAY:

The next Turning Point Day is 6/22  - the Major Turning Point Day on 6/22 (+ New Moon) could be a significant top.

Depression Beater Portfolio: New Updates:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

    SOLD  200 shrs of CHK @ $20.82 on 4/16/09

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

    SOLD 1000 shrs of DXO at $2.97 on 4/17/09

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

    SOLD  500 shrs at $5.62 on 4/16/09

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.77 on 4/16/09

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.30 on 4/21/09

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

     SOLD 200 shrs of AMSC @ $20.36 on 4/17/09

 

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 18, 2009

6/18/09 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPC continue a corrective bounce from the 6/17 Turning point Day. The OPR/MO buy signal is still in effect for Friday and we expect a rally into the Major Turning Point Day + New Moon on Monday before the next leg down - however, anything can happen. The SPX peak on 6/11 was not confirmed by the McClellan Summation Index and Trim Tabs reports that the "retail public" bought heavily into tha market as it made little upside progress during May. Corporate insiders are selling their shares with reckless abandon and corporate treasuries are issuing record amounts of stock and bond equity - all signs of a major top. Gold is due 1-Day Reversal Timing again on Friday  - the PM  sector should rally strong into 6/22 as well.  Bonds pulled back again today - standing aside TBT calls for the moment.  

• Stocks - MAJOR TOP CONFIRMED ON 6/11 - should see large corrective rally into 6/22 (New Moon + Major Turning Point Day) - however, wait for early bullish confirmation before scalping long on Friday.
• Gold – Gold was weak today but 1-Day Reversal Timing is due again tomorrow and should reverse this market up into Monday. 
• Silver – Same strategy as gold. 
• Crude Oil – Crude Oil should see a rally tomorrow - OIH calls may be the play. 
• Bonds - Bonds got hit today - rising rates another negative for the market near term.  
• Dollar - The dollar should see weakness tomorrow as many commodities look to rebound. 

TURNING POINT DAY:

The NewMoon on 6/22 is likely to pull the market up into a secondary peak before it reverses down. 

Depression Beater Portfolio: New Updates:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

    SOLD  200 shrs of CHK @ $20.82 on 4/16/09

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

    SOLD 1000 shrs of DXO at $2.97 on 4/17/09

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

    SOLD  500 shrs at $5.62 on 4/16/09

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.77 on 4/16/09

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.30 on 4/21/09

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

     SOLD 200 shrs of AMSC @ $20.36 on 4/17/09

 

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 17, 2009

6/17/09 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX has confirmed that a Major Top was made on 6/11 -  today's lackluster and corrective rally after a 5-wave decline into this morning validates last Thursday as a Major Top. Still, with back-to-back OPR/MO buy signals (today saw another Large Divergent Rally on the OPR and a Big Move signal on the McClellan Oscillator), we are looking for a large rally into 6/22 (New Moon + Major Turning Point Day) before the big move down.  Today saw 1-Day Reversal Timing for  gold and silver to the upside - the PM  sector should rally strong into 6/22 as well.  Bonds pulled back after the auction today  - leaning to the bullish side.  

• Stocks - MAJOR TOP CONFIRMED ON 6/11 - should see large corrective rally into 6/22 (New Moon + Major Turning Point Day).
• Gold – The PM sector reversed up and we confirmed 1-Day Reversal Timing from Starkey - strong rally into 6/22 likely.