All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 30, 2009

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - Updates below

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

4/30/09 (Commentary for Thursday)  We finished 5-waves up from Tuesday on the SPX and took out last week’s high. BEARISH VIEW: The market appeared to decline impulsively late today. Also, Starkey Weekly Reversal Timing to the downside may have been confirmed today. The rally from 3/6 has the look of a rising wedge on the daily chart. BULLISH VIEW: All the major indices did a POSITIVE VOLUME REVERSAL Wednesday which is short-term bullish. The last Major Turning Point on 4/27 appeared to be a low. The Nasdaq is testing its 200 day MA from below. Tomorrow’s price action should be revealing. Sentiment polls are at bullish lows in sentiment. My bias is that we will see an extension of the bullish move from 3/6 to the upside. We need a big move up tomorrow in the HUI/XAU to reinstate the bullish case or risk an extension of this week’s decline – AEM’s persistent weakness may be telling us something. The low bullish gold sentiment the past three weeks in the whispernumber.com poll( < 10%) argues for a decent trading rally here.

• Gold – The low bullish sentiment in whispernumber.com (<10%)  the past three weeks argues for a trading rally here. The HUI/XAU may have finished a EW a-b-c flat correction today – need a strong impulsive rally tomorrow to confirm. We believe that a mania in gold stocks will be evident by fall as all the "bank reserves" added by panicked governments begins to appear in the M2 monetary statistics.
• Stock Market - The major market indices all saw POSITIVE VOLUME REVERSALS Wednesday which is short-term bullish. The SPX appeared to decline impulsively late in the day – Starkey Weekly Reversal Timing to the downside may have been confirmed.  Volume patterns, however, remain bullish.
• Silver – Silver has posted a 3-wave decline from Monday - need a big rally tomorrow to renew uptrend. 
•  Crude Oil – Crude oil needs to take out the 4/24 highs to get this rally going. I favor the OIH stocks here.
• Bonds - Bonds may be bouncing here for a few days – if the bounce is corrective – sell the rallies.  
• Dollar - The dollar took out the 4/24 lows in an impulse wave - buy Euro on dips. 

TURNING POINT DAY:

Monday was the last Turning Point Day in the 4/22+4/24+New Moon+4/27 cluster - a Major Turning Day - a Pesavento Day - a reversal down of some consequence should be seen - if not the market has bullish undertones.

Depression Beater Portfolio: New Updates:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

    SOLD  200 shrs of CHK @ $20.82 on 4/16/09

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

    SOLD 1000 shrs of DXO at $2.97 on 4/17/09

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

    SOLD  500 shrs at $5.62 on 4/16/09

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.77 on 4/16/09

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.30 on 4/21/09

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

     SOLD 200 shrs of AMSC @ $20.36 on 4/17/09

 

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 29, 2009

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - Updates below

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

4/29/09 (Commentary for Wednesday)  Our Major Buy Signal yesterday was satisfied today with the large market move – most impressive was the large volume and the breakout in the new 52 week NYSE highs indicator. All the major indices did a POSITIVE VOLUME REVERSAL today which is short-term bullish. Still the EW 5-waves down pattern near the close could lead to more selling early tomorrow – a double top may have been achieved today – tomorrow’s tape will tell us a lot.  We need more rally from gold and the HUI/XAU to keep the short-term bullish outlook alive here. The low bullish gold sentiment the past three weeks in the whispernumber.com poll( < 10%) argues for a decent trading rally here.

• Gold – The low bullish sentiment in whispernumber.com (<10%)  the past three weeks argues for a trading rally here. The rally in the HUI/XAU was constructive today - we need more rally tomorrow to get this rally back in gear - looks promising with silver stocks leading the day - relative weakness from AEM was a negative. We believe that a mania in gold stocks will be evident by fall as all the "bank reserves" added by panicked governments begins to appear in the M2 monetary statistics.
• Stock Market - The major market indices all saw POSITIVE VOLUME REVERSALS today which is short-term bullish. The EW 5-wave decline near the close gives us some pause and could lead to more weakness early tomorrow.
• Silver – Silver rallied to fill the gap from yesterday - needs more rally tomorrow to re-ignite the uptrend. 
•  Crude Oil – Crude oil needs to take out the 4/24 highs to get this rally going. I favor the OIH stocks here.
• Bonds - Bonds may be entering a 3rd of a 3rd wave down -SELL RALLIES.  
• Dollar - The dollar took out the 4/24 lows in an impulse wave - buy Euro on dips. 

TURNING POINT DAY:

Monday was the last Turning Point Day in the 4/22+4/24+New Moon+4/27 cluster - a Major Turning Day - a Pesavento Day - a reversal down of some consequence should be seen - if not the market has bullish undertones.

Depression Beater Portfolio: New Updates:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

    SOLD  200 shrs of CHK @ $20.82 on 4/16/09

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

    SOLD 1000 shrs of DXO at $2.97 on 4/17/09

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

    SOLD  500 shrs at $5.62 on 4/16/09

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.77 on 4/16/09

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.30 on 4/21/09

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

     SOLD 200 shrs of AMSC @ $20.36 on 4/17/09

 

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 28, 2009

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - Updates below

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

4/28/09 (Commentary for Tuesday)  Our Major Sell Signal Monday gave us only a mild sell off that eliminated the overbought condition on several indicators with minimal price damage to the major indices – THIS IS BULLISH ACTION. The Turning Point Cluster that ended Monday has given us minimal price reversal so far – THIS IS BULLISH ACTION. Today we had a small move in the McClellan Oscillator (-15) with a Large Divergent Rally in the Option Premium Ratio – this gives us a Major Buy Signal for tomorrow. If we open weak tomorrow on the SPX, I will be looking for a reversal up by the end of the day.  Weekly Reversal Timing did further damage to the PM complex today – we need a large impulsive rally tomorrow on the HUI/XAU to reinstate the short-term bullish case. The low bullish gold sentiment the past three weeks in the whispernumber.com poll( < 10%) argues for a decent trading rally here.

• Gold – The low bullish sentiment in whispernumber.com (<10%)  the past three weeks argues for a trading rally here in gold but the Weekly Reversal Timing In the PM complex must be reversed tomorrow with a large impulsive rally to keep the short-term bullish case intact. We believe that a mania in gold stocks will be evident by fall as all the "bank reserves" added by panicked governments begins to appear in the M2 monetary statistics.
• Stock Market - The market decline seen so far has been minimal and the market is absorbing a lot of bad new - BULLISH ACTION.  We got a MO/OPR buy signal at the close of the day. 
• Silver – The 26 week cycle low in silver may be bottoming this week after all - need a bullish reversal tomorrow. 
•  Crude Oil – Crude oil has finished a minimal correction and looks to go higher. I favor the OIH stocks here.
• Bonds - Bonds declined in a clean EW 5-wave pattern on the 5 day 5 min chart - SELL RALLIES.  
• Dollar - The dollar appears to have finished a 3-wave correction today - may see a turn up tomorrow. 

TURNING POINT DAY:

Monday was the last Turning Point Day in the 4/22+4/24+New Moon+4/27 cluster - a Major Turning Day - a Pesavento Day - a reversal down of some consequence should be seen - if not the market has bullish undertones.

Depression Beater Portfolio: New Updates:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

    SOLD  200 shrs of CHK @ $20.82 on 4/16/09

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

    SOLD 1000 shrs of DXO at $2.97 on 4/17/09

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

    SOLD  500 shrs at $5.62 on 4/16/09

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.77 on 4/16/09

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.30 on 4/21/09

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

     SOLD 200 shrs of AMSC @ $20.36 on 4/17/09

 

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 27, 2009

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - Updates below

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

4/27/09 (Commentary for Monday)  The market rallied back from the early Swine Flu sell off – the NDX made a new recovery high but the SPX did not – a bearish divergence. At the highs of the day the market breath was negative – bearish but the volume was light. Tomorrow (post-Turning Point Cluster) should see a reversal down to test the 4/21 lows. The market appears primed for a sharp reversal down on Tuesday – the significance on the expected decline, however, remains to be seen and will have to evaluated on a day-to-day basis. We’ve had three consecutive Divergent Declines on the Option Premium Ratio – this indicator is trying to lead the market down. Weekly Reversal Timing hit the PM complex but the decline looks corrective. The low bullish gold sentiment the past three weeks in the whispernumber.com poll( < 10%) argues for a decent trading rally here.

• Gold – The low bullish sentiment in whispernumber.com (<10%)  the past three weeks argues for a trading rally here in gold. The pullback today was a buying opportunity. We believe that a mania in gold stocks will be evident by fall as all the "bank reserves" added by panicked governments begins to appear in the M2 monetary statistics.
• Stock Market - The NDX rallied to new recovery highs after the early Swine Flu scare but the SPX did not - the SPX may have made a failed 5th wave. In any case, today was the last day of the 4/22 + 4/24 + 4/27 Turning Point Cluster - tomorrow should see a reversal down to test the 4/21 lows. The negative breath  at the highs of the day was a sign of weakness but the low market volume made things inconclusive.  A third consecutive Large Divergent Decline in the Option Premium Ratio argues for a market sell off. 
• Silver – Silver appears to have made a confirmed Weekly Reversal Timing signal from Starkey - my bias is for a modest pullback before more upside.
•  Crude Oil – Crude oil rallied back from the Swine Fu scare but the strong dollar contained its range -  looking for new highs into mid-May.
• Bonds - Bonds gave us a corrective looking bounce from Friday.
• Dollar - The dollar appears to be tracing out an impulse wave from last week - an argument for more stock market decline. 

TURNING POINT DAYS:

Today was the last Turning Point Day in the 4/22+4/24+New Moon+4/27 cluster - a Major Turning Day - a Pesavento Day - a reversal down of some consequence should be seen tomorrow.

Depression Beater Portfolio: New Updates:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

    SOLD  200 shrs of CHK @ $20.82 on 4/16/09

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

    SOLD 1000 shrs of DXO at $2.97 on 4/17/09

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

    SOLD  500 shrs at $5.62 on 4/16/09

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.77 on 4/16/09

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.30 on 4/21/09

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

     SOLD 200 shrs of AMSC @ $20.36 on 4/17/09

 

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 23, 2009

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - Updates below

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

4/23/09 (Commentary for Thursday)  The market appears to be finishing a 3-wave corrective pattern from Tuesday morning in the SPX and most indices – tomorrow is a Turning Point Day and should turn the market back down. The late rally today could extend into tomorrow but the market is setting up for a big decline here.  The McClellan Oscillator (MO) gave us a second consecutive small change (+6.10) which argues for a big move soon. The Large Divergent Decline in the Option Premium Ratio (1.33 to 1.15) argues for weakness tomorrow. The joint MO/OPR signal gives us a major sell signal for tomorrow. Gold and PM stocks made large impulsive rallies today – follow through tomorrow to the upside could ignite a substantial trading rally into mid-May. The low  bullish sentiment the past three weeks in the whispernumber.com poll( < 10%) argues for a decent trading rally here.

• Gold – The low bullish sentiment in whispernumber.com (<10%)  the past three weeks argues for a trading rally here in gold. The PM sector took out the early Tuesday highs today and appears to be tracing out a bullish pattern- closing above $900 was constructive. We believe that a mania in gold stocks will be evident by fall as all the "bank reserves" added by panicked governments begins to appear in the M2 monetary statistics.
• Stock Market - The SPX gave us a sharp late day rally that could be finishing off a 3-wave bounce from early Tuesday.  A Large Divergent Decline in the Option Premium Ratio  +  a small change in the McClellan Oscillator ( Big Move Coming) gives us a Major Sell Signal for tomorrow. Tomorrow is a Turning Point Day which should turn down the market back down.
• Silver – The price pattern since 4/17 looks more bullish than gold – next week is Weekly Reversal Timing for silver. Crude Oil – Crude oil hasn’t even filled its down gap from Monday – relative strength in the OIH is constructive but the drillers faded late in the day.
• Bonds - Bonds should bounce here if the market sells off tomorrow.
• Dollar - The dollar has shown relentless weakness from the Martin Armstrong Pi Cycle Turn Date on Monday - gold appears to be catching “flight to quality” money flows. 

TURNING POINT DAYS:

The Martin Armstrong Pi Cycle Date was 4/20 and the Merriman Turning Point Window was 4/20-4/21 - these have turned the market down. We have 4/22 and 4/24 as turning point days later this week.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: New Updates:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

    SOLD  200 shrs of CHK @ $20.82 on 4/16/09

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

    SOLD 1000 shrs of DXO at $2.97 on 4/17/09

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

    SOLD  500 shrs at $5.62 on 4/16/09

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.77 on 4/16/09

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.30 on 4/21/09

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

     SOLD 200 shrs of AMSC @ $20.36 on 4/17/09

 

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 22, 2009

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - Updates below

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

4/22/09 (Commentary for Tuesday)  The market turned down on the Martin Armstrong Pi Cycle Turn Date on 4/20 but it remains to be seen how severe this decline will be. So far, the market has remained resilient in the face of bad earnings. The SPX is doing an EW a-b-c- flat correction and this should lead to a little more down tomorrow before a rebound. The Option Premium Ratio gave us a Large Divergent Rally and the McClellan Oscillator also gave us a Big Move signal (-17) – this argues for a large rally to start tomorrow. Gold is trying to rally and the bullish sentiment the past three weeks in the whispernumber.com poll has been 10% or less – this is constructive for at least a trading rally here.  The PM sector needs to rally sharply tomorrow to validate that the Merriman 4/20-4/21 turn window is a low.

• Gold – The low bullish sentiment in whispernumber.com (<10%)  the past three weeks argues for a trading rally here in gold. However, the PM sector needs to sharply rally tomorrow to validate the short-term bullish case.  We believe that a mania in gold stocks will be evident by fall as all the "bank reserves" added by panicked governments begins to appear in the M2 monetary statistics.
• Stock Market - The SPX reversed down late in the day and argues for more follow through early tomorrow however, the Large Divergent Rally in the Option Premium Ratio  + the small change in the McClellen Oscillator ( Big Move Coming) argue for strength tomorrow.
• Silver – The price pattern since 4/17 looks more bullish than gold.
• Crude Oil – Strength in the oil drillers argues for more rally in crude into mid-May.
• Bonds -Bonds finished a 5-wave decline on the 5 day 5 min chart and should rally.
• Dollar - The dollar appears ready to turn up here but gold could be catching “flight to quality” money flow.

TURNING POINT DAYS:

The Martin Armstrong Pi Cycle Date was today (4/20) and the Merriman Turning Point Window is 4/20-4/21 - these have turned the market down. We have 4/22 and 4/24 as turning point days later this week.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: New Updates:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

    SOLD  200 shrs of CHK @ $20.82 on 4/16/09

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

    SOLD 1000 shrs of DXO at $2.97 on 4/17/09

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

    SOLD  500 shrs at $5.62 on 4/16/09

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.77 on 4/16/09

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.30 on 4/21/09

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

     SOLD 200 shrs of AMSC @ $20.36 on 4/17/09

 

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 21, 2009

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - Updates below

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

4/21/09 (Commentary for Tuesday)  The market rallied in what appeared to be a corrective bounce – but the move in some indices like the OIH looked impulsive. There was a strong rebound in technology, financial and materials stocks. Tomorrow is a turning point day and should turn the market down once again into the turn window on Friday. The gold sector succumbed to 1-Day Reversal Timing from Starkey and gold stocks peaked early and went down hard – the XAU appeared to double bottom with Friday’s low. The PM sector needs to rally sharply tomorrow to validate a short-term bullish view.

• Gold - Gold and PM stocks were hit hard today – need to see sharp rally up tomorrow to validate the short-term bullish case. Relative weakness in silver stocks on Monday was a concern.  We believe that a mania in gold stocks will be evident by fall as all the "bank reserves" added by panicked governments begins to appear in the M2 monetary statistics.
• Stock Market - The SPX rallied in a Wave B or Wave 2 affair – should see reversal down on tomorrow’s turning point day.
• Silver – Silver made a 3-wave pullback today – should see a rally tomorrow.
• Crude Oil – Strength in the oil drillers argues for more rally in crude into mid-May.
• Bonds -  Bonds declined in a 3-wave pattern today – could reverse back up tomorrow.
• Dollar - The dollar made a 3-wave corrective pullback from Monday – could be ready to turn up tomorrow.

TURNING POINT DAYS:

The Martin Armstrong Pi Cycle Date was today (4/20) and the Merriman Turning Point Window is 4/20-4/21 - these have turned the market down. We have 4/22 and 4/24 as turning point days later this week.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: New Updates:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

    SOLD  200 shrs of CHK @ $20.82 on 4/16/09

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

    SOLD 1000 shrs of DXO at $2.97 on 4/17/09

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

    SOLD  500 shrs at $5.62 on 4/16/09

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.77 on 4/16/09

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.30 on 4/21/09

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

     SOLD 200 shrs of AMSC @ $20.36 on 4/17/09

 

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 20, 2009

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - Updates below

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

4/20/09 (Commentary for Monday)  The Martin Armstrong Pi Cycle and the Merriman Turn Window turned the market down with a vengeance today. The Bear Market may have resumed but it’s too early to tell. The Option Premium Ratio is declining into 9 month lows and is leading the market down. Odds favor the market declining into the 4/22 Turning Point Day.  Gold and PM stocks bounced today but the percentage gain in the XAU was not that impressive – need to see more follow through to the upside to reinforce the idea that an important low was seen.

• Gold - Gold and PM stocks bounced - need more follow through tomorrow - under performance by the silver stocks is making us cautious here.  We believe that a mania in gold stocks will be evident by fall as all the "bank reserves" added by panicked governments begins to appear in the M2 monetary statistics.
• Stock Market - The SPX turned down on the Pi Cycle Turn Date today – the Bear Market may have resumed, but its too early to tell. Weakness into the 4/22 Turning Point Day is likely.
• Silver – Silver rallied in the Merriman turning point window and looks like it has more to go on the upside.
Crude Oil – Crude sold off hard but the 4^th wave triangle on the daily chart suggests more upside into mid-May.
• Bonds -Bonds rallied in a 5-wave impulse from Friday – looking for more rally.
• Dollar - The dollar rallied hard as markets caught a deflationary chill.

TURNING POINT DAYS:

The Martin Armstrong Pi Cycle Date was today (4/20) and the Merriman Turning Point Window is 4/20-4/21 - these have turned the market down. We have 4/22 and 4/24 as turning point days later this week.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: New Updates:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

    SOLD  200 shrs of CHK @ $20.82 on 4/16/09

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

    SOLD 1000 shrs of DXO at $2.97 on 4/17/09

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

    SOLD  500 shrs at $5.62 on 4/16/09

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.77 on 4/16/09

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

     SOLD 200 shrs of AMSC @ $20.36 on 4/17/09

 

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - April 19, 2009

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - New Updates today

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

4/19/09 (Commentary for Sunday)  Today was a Turning Point Day and the market appeared to finish a rising wedge pattern that should lead to a substantial correction on Monday. The Martin Armstrong Pi Cycle Day on 4/20 and the Merriman turn window on 4/20-4/21 also argue for an important intermediate term top here. We also got a sell signal on our MO/OPR indicator on Friday’s close – the McClellan Oscillator made a small move (+11.25) arguing for a large market move in the next two days and the Divergent Decline in the Option Premium Ratio argues that the move will be to the downside. The gold market also has a turn window on 4/20-4/21 and the HUI/XAU  touched the bottom of its price channel on the daily chart on Friday. The XAU/HUI has traced out a 5-wave decline from the March high – there’s a good chance that we will see a reversal up early in the week.     

• Gold  - Looking for the PM complex to bottom and reverse up in the Merriman turn window on 4/20-4/21. 
• Stocks -  The SPX finished a rising wedge on Friday which was a turning point day - looking for a scary correction into the 4/22-4/24 turn window.  
• Silver - Looking for silver to bottom  by 4/21 - Starkey 1-Day Reversal Timing is due on Tuesday.
• Crude Oil -  Crude oil is working on a triangle on the daily chart - should resolve to the upside until the mid-May turn window.
• Bonds -  Bonds may reverse up here early in the week. 
• Dollar - The USD could benefit here from another financial shock.

 

TURNING POINT DAYS:

Two turning point days this week - 4/22 and 4/24.  The Martin Armstrong 4/20 Turn Date and the Merriman 4/20-4/21 turn window should give us at least a short- term top .

Depression Beater Portfolio: New Updates:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

    SOLD  200 shrs of CHK @ $20.82 on 4/16/09

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

    SOLD 1000 shrs of DXO at $2.97 on 4/17/09

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

    SOLD  500 shrs at $5.62 on 4/16/09

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

     SOLD 500 shrs at $8.77 on 4/16/09

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

     SOLD 200 shrs of AMSC @ $20.36 on 4/17/09

 

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 16, 2009