All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - March 31, 2009

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - No Update today

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

3/31/09 (Commentary for Tuesday)  Today's price action in the SPX appeared to be the first two legs of an EW B-wave off of Monday's low. Technology and financial issues were strong but oil drillers and material stocks lagged badly. Still focused on the 4/4 Major Turning Point Day which should end this correction.  The Option Premium Ratio rallied hard today and argues for strength tomorrow. The gold market appears to need a C-wave down to complete the correction started in February - it is interesting to note that the Decision Point PMO oscillator never crossed up after the 3/6 low. The 25 % premium on GTU still argues for a more substantial correction in price and time. 

• Gold -   Gold has failed several times in a row to confirm Starkey 1-Day Reversal Timing to the upside - this is a sign of weakness. Still, several good gold analysts are short-term bullish here. We are holding some AEM Apr 50 and 55 puts as a hedge. We believe that a mania in gold stocks will be evident by fall as all the "bank reserves" added by panicked governments begins to appear in the M2 monetary statistics.
• Stocks -  The SPX bounced today with leadership from financials and technology - the B-wave may extend higher tomorrow before falling in a C-wave into Friday/Monday on the 4/4 Major Turning Point Day.  Our BIAS is that a major low was made on 3/6 and that a Bear Market Rally could extend until 4/24 - an important Turn Date on the Armstrong Economic Pi model. 
• Silver - Silver appears to be declining in 5-waves and rallying in  3-waves - short-term bearish.
• Crude Oil -  Crude oil appeared to bounce in wave 4 of C down today  -  we should take out Monday's low before the correction finishes. 
• Bonds -  The bonds recovered today and tested Monday's highs - the bond is tracing out a sideways triangle on the daily chart.  
• Dollar - The dollar appears to be rallying impulsively - looking to test its 50-day MA soon.

TURNING POINT DAYS:

The Major Cluster on 4/4 should bottom this correction and turn the market back up.

Depression Beater Portfolio: No Update:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

 

3) Long 2000 shes of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - March 30, 2009

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - No Update today

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

3/30/09 (Commentary for Thursday)  The Major Turning Point Day on 3/27 turned the market down. So far, it appears that most indices did a EW 5-waves down from Friday in what appears to be a Wave A of an EW zig-zag correction that may run into the next turning point cluster on 4/04. Today's action reduced the McClellan Oscillator to a neutral reading (+37) and the volume today was relatively light. The index put/call ratio on the CBOE ran > 2.0 - the first sign of fear in a long time. The G-20 meeting later this week has the potential to be contentious and market moving.  The Option Premium Ratio made back-to-back readings of 1.14 which argues for a bottom and a rally tomorrow. The gold market appeared to confirm 1-Day Starkey Reversal Timing to the upside but then fell apart - a sign of weakness  -  it appears that we are getting  a C-wave down to complete the correction started in February. The 25 % premium on GTU still argues for a more substantial correction in price and time. 

• Gold -   Gold failed once again to confirm Starkey 1-Day Reversal timing to the upside today and it appears that we are pulling back in a Wave C to finish the correction from February.  We believe that a mania in gold stocks will be evident by fall as all the "bank reserves" added by panicked governments begins to appear in the M2 monetary statistics.
• Stocks -  Today's market plunge is quickly correcting the market's overbought condition - a Trin-5 value of 9.42 and a Trin value of 2.9 argue for a rally tomorrow. Our BIAS is that a major low was made on 3/6 and that a Bear Market Rally could extend until 4/24 - an important Turn Date on the Armstrong Economic Pi model. 
• Silver - Silver 's price action today looks like the start of Wave 3 of C down from the New Moon high.
• Crude Oil -  Crude oil peaked on 3/23 and is correcting -  breaking it's uptrend line below $50 was a negative today. 
• Bonds -  After gapping up on the open bonds appeared to begin a correction.  
• Dollar - The dollar rallied hard today - looking to test its 50-day MA soon.

TURNING POINT DAYS:

Keying on the Major Turning Point Day on 3/27 and the New Moon on 3/26 to turn the market down for a few days - the Major Cluster on 4/4 should turn the market back up.

Depression Beater Portfolio: No Update:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

 

3) Long 2000 shes of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - March 29, 2009

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - No Update today

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

3/29/09 (Commentary for Sunday)  The stock market peaked on the 3/26 New Moon and started to correct on Friday on very light volume - the question is - how much pullback will we get here.  The McClellan Oscillator is working off its overbought condition - another day like Friday should about do it. However, the short-term EW patterns are very cloudy. It is possible that the SPX could make another rally attempt to SPX=838 (the .618 retracement form the early January high) on Monday - this could be a good shorting opportunity. A lot of charts look like we need to do some more up on Monday before we get a reversal down that everyone is looking for. Our bias is that a strong bear market rally started on 3/6 and it could last to late April - there is also a Major Turning Point Cluster around 4/4 that could be a significant low in the Bear Market Thrust into late April. The Option Premium Ratio made it's lowest low in about a month - this action is probably arguing for some reversal down on Monday. The 5-day MA all-exchange put/call ratio and the 10-day MA ISEE call/put also look BEARISH here and argue for a pullback soon.  Price action in the PM complex looks negative here and I believe that a C-wave down to the mid-800s for gold is like in the near term  -  the large premium on GTU (32%) and CEF (32%) argue for more correction for gold.  

• Gold -  Believe that gold started a C-wave down to the mid-800s on Friday - I've become short-term bearish on gold.  In any case, we believe that a mania in gold stocks will be evident by fall as all the "bank reserves" added by panicked governments begins to appear in the M2 monetary statistics.
• Stocks -  Stocks should bounce into Monday - if SPX=838 (the .618 retrace from the early January high) repels the rally - look to go short. The Major Turning Point Day on 3/27 could actually allow for a low on Monday.   
• Silver -Bearish action on Friday - believe that the PM complex should pull back here. 
• Crude Oil -  Crude oil  topped on Monday last week and is pulling back - it may be about to finish an EW a-b-c correction on Monday - if so it could help pull the market higher with leadership from the XOI and OSX. Looking for $70 oil by May.
• Bonds -  Bonds may be tracing out a large sideways triangle on the daily that could lead to higher highs later in the year. 
• Dollar - The dollar appears to have tarted a rally phase that could have some legs. The Euro needs to pull back here to consolidate.

TURNING POINT DAYS:

Our closest Major Turning Point Day was 3/27.  The market correction could end by 3/30 and reverse up.

Depression Beater Portfolio: No Update:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

 

3) Long 2000 shes of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - March 26, 2009

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - No Update today

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

3/26/09 (Commentary for Thursday)  The price action in several indices looked "wedgy" as the markets made a weekly high on the New Moon. The market looks tired here and needs to take a short rest. The McClellan Oscillator is at very high levels (+270) and needs to have some exuberance worked off in the near term. Tomorrow is a Major Turning Point Day and the indices should pull back in the near term. The Option Premium Ratio made another Divergent Decline and is calling for a market correction tomorrow. Our bias is that we got an important short-term low on 3/6 - looking for a dramatic rally into 4/21 or so.  The option sentiment indicators are still on the euphoric side of the scale but haven't been able to turn this market down yet in a convincing manner yet. The ISEE call/put indicator (100) continues to come down despite the rally but the 5-day MA of the all-exchange put/call ratio continues to stay on the low side. The gold market rallied but volume on GDX was very light -  our bias is that the recent gold rally appears to be a B-wave of an ongoing consolidation - it appears that we need a C-wave down to complete the correction started in February. The 25 % premium on GTU still argues for a more substantial correction in price and time. 

• Gold -   Gold confirmed Starkey 1-Day Reversal timing to the upside Wednesday - but the pattern on the HUI/XAU appears EW corrective - still looking for a pullback.  We believe that a mania in gold stocks will be evident by fall as all the "bank reserves" added by panicked governments begins to appear in the M2 monetary statistics.
• Stocks -  The market needs a rest in the very short-term - the New Moon today and the Major Turning Point tomorrow should peak the market here for a session or two. Our BIAS is that a major low was made on 3/6 and that a Bear Market Rally could extend until 4/24 - an important Turn Date on the Armstrong Economic Pi model. This rally is defying a lot of conventional technical indicators on the way up - just like the Killer Crash wave did on the way down.
• Silver - Silver 's price action looks clearly corrective here - adds to the case that the PM complex needs another leg down.
• Crude Oil -  Crude oil peaked on 3/23 and is correcting -  looking for $70 by late April. This week is Weekly Reversal Timing for Starkey -  a short-term top was seen on Monday - a test of trend line support at $50 is possible. 
• Bonds -  Bonds are showing corrective price action after the recent auctions throwing doubt on the ability of the Fed to support prices via quantitative easing. TBT positions may be appropriate. 
• Dollar - The dollar is correcting the huge move down after last week's Fed meeting - the Fed announcement trashed the dollar and caused the Euro to explode. Buy the Euro on the dips.

TURNING POINT DAYS:

Keying on the Major Turning Point Day on 3/27 and the New Moon on 3/26 to turn the market down for a few days.

Depression Beater Portfolio: No Update:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

 

3) Long 2000 shes of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - March 25, 2009

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - No Update today

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

3/25/09 (Commentary for Wednesday)  A failed 40-year Gilt auction in Britain and a so-so 5 year US Treasury auction gave traders a reason to sell the market - but they couldn't keep it down. The market is making a sideways correction to Monday's huge rally and the EW patterns being printed are corrective for higher prices. The market should rally into the New Moon tomorrow and perhaps make a short-term top  - a decline into the 3/27 Major Turning Point Day would be constructive for higher prices.    Several indicators are very overbought here but the market is resistant to a substantial decline so far - sideline money is choosing to come in.   The Option Premium Ratio made a Large Divergent Decline today arguing for weakness early tomorrow.   Our bias is that we got an important short-term low on 3/6 - looking for a dramatic rally into 4/21 or so.  The option sentiment indicators are still on the euphoric side of the scale but haven't been able to turn this market down yet in a convincing manner yet. The ISEE call/put indicator (117) is coming down and the 5-day MA of the all-exchange put/call ratio continues to stay on the low side. The gold market confounded us today - which was 1-Day Reversal Timing for Starkey  - our bias is that the recent gold rally appears to be a B-wave of an ongoing consolidation - it appears that a C-wave down commenced yesterday with lower targets ahead. The 34 % premium on GTU argues for a more substantial correction in price and time. 

• Gold -   Gold appeared to confirm Starkey 1-Day Reversal timing to the upside today - but the pattern appears EW corrective - we need more technical chart action to see the trend in the short-term.  We believe that a mania in gold stocks will be evident by fall as all the "bank reserves" added by panicked governments begins to appear in the M2 monetary statistics.
• Stocks -  The market continues to consolidate Monday's rally very efficiently - looking for a big turn around the Major Turning Point Day on 3/27 - our BIAS is that a major low was made on 3/6 and that a Bear Market Rally could extend until 4/24 - an important Turn Date on the Armstrong Economic Pi model. This rally is defying a lot of conventional technical indicators on the way up - just like the Killer Crash wave did on the way down.
• Silver - Silver also appeared to confirm 1-Day Reversal Timing to the upside - but the short-term trend is still in doubt. 
• Crude Oil -  Crude oil is correcting - buy dips - the drillers and the integrated oils are looking strong -  looking for $70 by late April. This week is Weekly Reversal Timing for Starkey - looking for a short-term top which may have been seen on Monday. 
• Bonds -  Bonds are showing poor price action after the recent auctions throwing doubt on the ability of the Fed to support prices via quantitative easing. 
• Dollar - The dollar is correcting the huge move down after last week's Fed meeting - the Fed announcement trashed the dollar and caused the Euro to explode. Buy the Euro on the dips.

TURNING POINT DAYS:

Keying on the Major Turning Point Day on 3/27 and the New Moon on 3/26  - a decline into 3/27 should be bought.

Depression Beater Portfolio: No Update:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

 

3) Long 2000 shes of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - March 24, 2009

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - No Update today

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

3/24/09 (Commentary for Tuesday)  The market bullishly consolidated the huge market rally on Monday today and traders on CNBC are praying for a pullback to buy.  Several indicators are very overbought here but the market is resistant to a substantial decline so far - sideline money is choosing to come in. The Major Turning Point Day on 3/27 will be key this week - we'll need to fade the market direction going into Friday.  The Option Premium Ratio made a Small Divergent Rally today arguing for strength early tomorrow.   Our bias is that we got an important short-term low on 3/6 - looking for a dramatic rally into 4/21 or so.  The option sentiment indicators are still on the euphoric side of the scale but haven't been able to turn this market down yet in a convincing manner yet. The ISEE call/put indicator (130) gave us another COMPLACENT reading today and the 5-day MA of the all-exchange put/call ratio continues to make lower lows. The failure of 1-Day Reversal Timing for gold on Monday has put the PM complex in a weak position - the recent gold rally appears to be a B-wave of an ongoing consolidation - it appears that a C-wave down commenced yesterday with lower targets ahead. The 34 % premium on GTU argues for a more substantial correction in price and time. 

• Gold -   Gold failed to confirm 1-Day Reversal timing yesterday because of late weakness - a sign of short-term weakness - we now feel that a C-wave down started yesterday that should take out last week's lows.  We believe that a mania in gold stocks will be evident by fall as all the "bank reserves" added by panicked governments begins to appear in the M2 monetary statistics.
• Stocks -  The market consolidated yesterday's huge rally very efficiently - looking for a big turn around the Major Turning Point Day on 3/27 - our BIAS is that a major low was made on 3/6 and that a Bear Market Rally could extend until 4/24 - an important Turn Date on the Armstrong Economic Pi model. This rally is defying a lot of conventional technical indicators on the way up - just like the Killer Crash wave did on the way down.
• Silver - Silver was crushed today like gold - should see lower prices into the New Moon on Thursday. 
• Crude Oil -  Crude oil consolidated in a narrow range today - buy dips - the drillers and the integrated oils are looking strong -  looking for $70 by late April. This week is Weekly Reversal Timing for Starkey - looking for a short-term top. 
• Bonds -  Bonds may have resumed their rally today after the successful Treasury auction. 
• Dollar - The dollar is correcting the huge move down after last week's Fed meeting - the Fed announcement trashed the dollar and caused the Euro to explode. Buy the Euro on the dips.

TURNING POINT DAYS:

Keying on the Major Turning Point Day on 3/27 and the New Moon on 3/26  - a decline into 3/27 should be bought.

Depression Beater Portfolio: No Update:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

 

3) Long 2000 shes of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - March 23, 2009

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - No Update today

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

3/23/09 (Commentary for Monday)  The market posted an impressive rally today - a 90% day (90% advancing stocks with 90% up volume) - however, the volume was lighter than Friday.  Several indicators are very overbought here but the market is resistant to a substantial decline so far - sideline money is chosing to come in. We did get a rare Bollinger OEX PVI buy signal on Friday (2.04 >2.00) but we chose to ignore it because of option expiration. The Option Premium Ratio made a Large Divergent Rally today arguing for strength early tomorrow   Our bias is that we got an important short-term low on 3/6 - the 3/19 Major Turning Point Day is looking like a top here for the short-term. A market advance into late April looks likely. The option sentiment indicators are still on the euphoric side of the scale but haven't been able to turn this market down yet in a convincing manner yet. The ISEE call/put indicator (120) gave us a better but still COMPLACENT reading today and the 5-day MA of the all-exchange put/call ratio continues to make lower lows. Gold appeared to confirm 1-Day Reversal timing to the upside today, but late weakness negated the signal - gold stocks underperformed the market today. The 34 % premium on GTU argues for a more substantial correction in price and time - this may wait until late April. 

• Gold -   Gold failed to confirm 1-Day Reversal timing today because of late weakness - a sign of short-term weakness - still, the PMS should bottom no later that the New Moon on 3/26 - buy dips - an extended rally into April/May is underway. A rallying Euro is also supporting gold. Last Friday, gold bullish sentiment on whispernumber.com increased from 18% the previous Friday to 25% . We believe that a mania in gold stocks will be evident by late spring as all the "bank reserves" added by panicked governments begins to appear in the M2 monetary statistics.
• Stocks -  The market made a huge rally on light volume today  over the "updated bank plan" and the shorts were squeezed going into the close - our BIAS is that a major low was made on 3/6 and that a Bear Market Rally could extend until 4/24 - an important Turn Date on the Armstrong Economic Pi model. This rally is defying a lot of conventional technical indicators - just like the Killer Crash wave did.
• Silver - Silver tried to reverse up early but succumbed to profit taking late in the day - the PM complex has started a big rally into late April. 
• Crude Oil -  Crude oil continues to power higher and is ignoring fundamental data - buy dips - the drillers and the integrated oils are looking strong -  looking for $70 by late April. This week is Weekly Reversal Timing for Starkey - looking for a short-term top. 
• Bonds -  Bonds are still consolidating their spike move up last week- bonds should make new highs later in the year as the Fed buys the long end in its new quatitative easing initiative. 
• Dollar - The dollar is correcting in a Wave C to test the December lows - the Fed announcement trashed the dollar and caused the Euro to explode. Buy the Euro on the dips.

TURNING POINT DAYS:

Keying on the Major Turning Point Day on 3/27 and the New Moon on 3/26  - a decline into 3/27 should be bought.

Depression Beater Portfolio: No Update:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

 

3) Long 2000 shes of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - March 22, 2009

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - No Update today

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

3/22/09 (Commentary for Sunday)  The Fed announcement on 3/18 caused an upside explosion into the 3/19 Major Turning Point Day - currencies, grains, US bonds, etc. made dramatic moves. Since then a retracement of the stock market rise from 3/6 has occurred - a 38.2% retracement should take the market down this week to test SPX=755. If we make a smaller retracement, this will put the market in a strong position to extend its rally. One concern is that the sentiment poll (AAII) went from 17% bullish just before the 3/6 bottom to 54% bullish this week - a very fast swing in sentiment that could have bearish repercussions in the short term.  Our bias is that a strong bear market rally started on 3/6 and it could last to late April. In any case, we should expect some consolidation and retracement in several markets this coming week. The SPX tested strong overhead resistance and the 50 day MA from below last week - getting through to SPX=800 will launch the rally in earnest.  The 5-day MA all-exchange put/call ratio and the 10-day MA ISEE call/put also look BEARISH here and argue for another wave down, however, if upside resistance on the SPX is taken out (~SPX=800), the bear market rally can go a lot higher.  Price action in the PM complex was very positive with the HUI/XAU doing a high-range consolidation on Friday  - however, the large premium on GTU (32%) and CEF (32%) argue for more correction for gold.  

• Gold -  Gold may be about to test the $1000 for the fourth time in about a year - odds are it will break through this time. Gold made a less than 38.2% retracement of the rally from Oct-Feb - this is bullish for the intermediate term. Monday is 1-Day Reversal Timing from Starkey - looking for a short-term  top and reversal down.  We believe that a mania in gold stocks will be evident by fall as all the "bank reserves" added by panicked governments begins to appear in the M2 monetary statistics.
• Stocks -  Stocks should bounce sometime Monday as part of a consolidation that started 3/19 - a B-wave rally may begin Monday to test the 3/19 highs. The consolidation may end on the 3/27 Major Turning Point Day.   
• Silver -Silver is in a stronger position than gold here - price action has been strong but sentiment a lot more subdued. 
• Crude Oil -  Crude oil  made an important seasonal low on 3/11 - looking to buy dips. Looking for $70 oil by May. Oil stocks should be market out performers.
• Bonds -  Bonds exploded on 3/18 after the Fed announcement. We concede that the correction in bonds from late December is only corrective - new highs are due later in the year.  Hold off on new TBT purchases until the downtrend is reinstated.
• Dollar - The dollar needs to upwardly correctly the Big Slam from last week - looking for a bounce. The Euro needs to pull back here to consolidate.

TURNING POINT DAYS:

The next major Turning Point Day is 3/27.  The New Moon is 3/26.  The market correction should end by 3/27.

Depression Beater Portfolio: No Update:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

 

3) Long 2000 shes of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - March 19, 2009

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - No Update today

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

3/19/09 (Commentary for Thursday)  The market corrected today with just modest pullbacks on the indices - the internals stayed positive but a high TRIN value spoke of the selling in some sectors. This reflation rally should have legs into late April. Several indicators are very overbought here but the market is resistant to a substantial decline so far - sideline money is chosing to come in. The Option Premium Ratio made a Large Divergent Rally today arguing for strength early tomorrow   Our bias is that we got an important short-term low on 3/6 - the 3/19 Major Turning Point Day is looking like a top here for the short-term. A market advance into late April looks likely. The option sentiment indicators are still on the euphoric side of the scale but haven't been able to turn this market down yet in a convincing manner yet. The ISEE call/put indicator (176) gave us a VERY COMPLACENT reading today and the 5-day MA of the all-exchange put/call ratio continues to make lower lows. Gold continued to advance today, but the 34 % premium on GTU argues for a more substantial correction in price and time - this may wait until late April. 

• Gold -   Gold continued to advance today - we believe that this advance has legs into late April. A rallying Euro is also supporting gold. Last Friday, gold bullish sentiment on whispernumber.com dropped from 31% the previous Friday to 18% - also argued for a low this week. We believe that a mania in gold stocks will be evident by late spring as all the "bank reserves" added by panicked governments begins to appear in the M2 monetary statistics.
• Stocks -  The market began to correct today - but sideline money is dying to buy into this advance  - our BIAS is that a major low was made on 3/6 and that a Bear Market Rally could extend until 4/24 - an important Turn Date on the Armstrong Economic Pi model.
• Silver - Silver also made a lower daily reversed and reversed sharply up - the PM complex may have stared a big rally into late April. 
• Crude Oil -  Crude oil continues to power higher and is ignoring fundamental data - buy dips - the drillers and the integrated oils are looking strong -  looking for $70 by late April. Friday is 1-Day Reversal Timing from Starkey. 
• Bonds -  Bonds corrected the spike up from yesterday on the Fed announcement - stand aside TBT for the moment. 
• Dollar - The dollar is correcting in a Wave C to test the December lows - the Fed announcement trashed the dollar and caused the Euro to explode. Buy the Euro on the dips.

TURNING POINT DAYS:

Keying on the Major Turning Point Day on 3/19 which now looks like a high - SPX=740 would be support on a pullback.

Depression Beater Portfolio: No Update:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

 

3) Long 2000 shes of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - March 18, 2009

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - No Update today

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

3/18/09 (Commentary for Wednesday)  Early day market declines are reversed by end of day - bullish action. The Fed announcement lit a fire under inflation hedges and crushed the dollar. Oil and gold advanced and other commodities will follow. This reflation rally could have legs into late April. However, tomorrow is a Major Turning Point Day and the very over-bought McClellan Oscillator (+328) and the Large Divergent Decline in the Option Premium Ratio argue for a decline through early next week. The pattern of the decline will tell us a lot about the bullish potential for the next six weeks.   Our bias is that we got an important short-term low on 3/6 - the 3/19 Major Turning Point Day is looking like a top here for the short-term.   The option sentiment indicators are still on the euphoric side of the scale but haven't been able to turn this market down yet. The ISEE call/put indicator (137) gave us a VERY COMPLACENT reading today and the 5-day MA of the all-exchange put/call ratio continues to make lower lows. Gold soared on the Fed intentions to inflate  - the 34 % premium on GTU, however, argues that gold needs a more substantial correction in price and time. 

• Gold -   Today was 1-Day Starkey Reversal Timing and we saw a low and reversal up - low timing confirmed. A rallying Euro is also supporting gold. Last Friday, gold bullish sentiment on whispernumber.com dropped from 31% the previous Friday to 18% - also argued for a low this week. We believe that a mania in gold stocks will be evident by late spring as all the "bank reserves" added by panicked governments begins to appear in the M2 monetary statistics.