All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - February 26, 2009

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - No Update today

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

2/26/09 (Commentary for Thursday)  The market appears to have finished a wave 4 correction that started Tuesday and may be about to test the November lows (SPX=741) again - the Time Window of March 6-9 is the potential time zone for the end of Wave 5 that started on 1/6. The market peaked early today influenced by yesterday's New Moon.  The price action in all the indices since Tuesday morning appears to be corrective and the tape appears heavier on selloffs than rallies. The Bollinger OEX PVI has given us a string of four very low values  which is BEARISH.  The 5-day MA on the all-exchange put/call ratio still looks BEARISH and the EUPHORIC sentiment on the ISEE call/put ratio (160) argues that we haven't seen the lows quite yet in the near term. The Option Premium Ratio, however, gave us a Large Divergent Rally and implies early strength tomorrow. Both gold and the HUI/XAU finished a 5-wave decline from 2/20 and are due for at least a bounce here.

• Gold -  Gold finished a 5-wave decline from 2/20 on today's New Moon and appears ready to bounce.  Tomorrow is another 1-Day Reversal Day from Starkey and we could see a sharp bounce up. We believe that a mania in gold stocks will be evident by spring as all the "bank reserves" added by panicked governments begins to appear in the M2 monetary statistics.
• Stocks -  We got the move down predicted by the small change in the McClellan Oscillator and the the island top in the Option Premium Ratio.  Market breadth held up reasonably well during the sell off today but the option sentiment indicators still look euphoric arguing for lower prices ahead - we're targeting March 6-9 for a final low before.
• Silver - Silver may have bottomed for the short term - looking for a bounce tomorrow. 
• Crude Oil -  Crude oil is looking bullish and the energy sector is getting poised to lead on the upside. 
• Bonds -  Bonds are still working on a wave 4 - the pattern looks like a triangle that should resolve to the downside - a target of 122 is possible in the near term. 
• Dollar - The dollar appears on its way to take out the November highs.

TURNING POINT DAYS:

Tuesday, 2/24, was a turning point day - the rally from that low looks CORRECTIVE in all indices - bearish going into the March 6-9 turning point cluster.

Depression Beater Portfolio: No Update:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

 

3) Long 2000 shes of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - February 25, 2009

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - No Update today

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

2/25/09 (Commentary for Wednesday)  A less than a point change in the McClellan Oscillator and an island reversal formation in the Option Premium Ratio daily chart argue for a big decline tomorrow. The price action in all the indices since Tuesday morning appears to be corrective and the tape appears heavier on selloffs than rallies. Today was a New Moon and it may have peaked the SPX in a completed Wave 2 or Wave 4.  The 5-day MA on the all-exchange put/call ratio still looks bearish and the COMPLACENT sentiment on the ISEE call/put ratio (119) argues that we haven't seen the lows quite yet in the near term. Both gold and the HUI/XAU finished a 5-wave decline from 2/20 and are do for at least a bounce here.

• Gold -  Gold finished a 5-wave decline from 2/20 on today's New Moon and appears ready to bounce.  We believe that a mania in gold stocks will be evident by spring as all the "bank reserves" added by panicked governments begins to appear in the M2 monetary statistics.
• Stocks -  A small change in the McClellan Oscillator argues for a big move soon and the island reversal down in the Option Premium Ratio argues that the move will be down tomorrow.  The ISEE call/put ratio looks too complacent to have made a short-term low on Tuesday - the New Moon may have peaked the market today as the tape looked very heavy late in the day.
• Silver - Silver may have bottomed for the short term - looking for a bounce tomorrow. 
• Crude Oil -  Crude oil took out some highs to the left on the daily chart - starting to look bullish. 
• Bonds -  Bonds are still working on a wave 4 - the pattern looks like a triangle that should resolve to the downside - a target of 122 is possible in the near term. 
• Dollar - The dollar appears on its way to take out the November highs.

TURNING POINT DAYS:

Yesterday, 2/24, was a turning point day - the rally from that low looks CORRECTIVE on all indices - bearish going into the 3/6-3/9 turning point cluster.

Depression Beater Portfolio: No Update:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

 

3) Long 2000 shes of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - February 24, 2009

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - No Update today

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

2/24/09 (Commentary for Tuesday)  The SPX made a low late yesterday and rallied out of its declining wedge formation today on good volume and internals. However, none of the indices gave a Volume Reversal buy signal and none of them took out yesterday's high, so we need more technical confirmation that a short-term low is in. A large move up on the Option Premium Ratio today confirmed the rally in the DJIA but the COMPLACENT sentiment on the ISEE call/put ratio (123) argues that we haven't seen the lows quite yet in the near term. The pattern of the bounce tomorrow will tell us if we are in a Large C Wave up.

• Gold -  Gold pulled back today finishing a minimum EW a-b-c correction and the HUI/XAU followed suit. Tomorrow is a 1-Day Reversal Day from Starkey - we're looking for a rally attempt tomorrow. We believe that a mania in gold stocks will be evident by spring as all the "bank reserves" added by panicked governments begins to appear in the M2 monetary statistics.
• Stocks -  The ISEE call/put ratio looks too complacent to have made a short-term low  - the New Moon tomorrow should pull the market up but a reversal down should take place at some point.
• Silver - Silver pulled back today in what appears to be a sizable correction that should extend into next week.
• Crude Oil -  Crude oil bounced today but needs to take out highs to the left on the daily chart to make a bullish case. 
• Bonds -  Bonds are still working on a wave 4 rally  - the pattern looks like a triangle that should resolve to the downside - a target of 122 is possible in the near term. 
• Dollar - The dollar appears on its way to take out the November highs.

TURNING POINT DAYS:

Mc Hugh had a PHI Turning Date on 2/18 - today was also a turning point day - we may have seen an important low yesterday - tomorrow's price pattern will tell us.

Depression Beater Portfolio: No Update:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

 

3) Long 2000 shes of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - February 23, 2009

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - No Update today

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

2/23/09 (Commentary for Monday)  The SPX is poised to break the 11/21 intraday lows (SPX=740) tomorrow and reverse up on the Turning Point Day. A Large Divergent Rally on the Option Premium Ratio argues for a rally sometime on Tuesday.  The COMPLACENT sentiment on the ISEE call/put ratio (110) argues that we haven't seen the lows quite yet in the near term. We should see a corrective bounce start tomorrow but SPX=650 is our target by the March 6-9 time window.

• Gold -  Gold pulled back today in what could be a brief pullback into the 8 week cycle low due this week. We believe that a mania in gold stocks will be evident by spring as all the "bank reserves" added by panicked governments begins to appear in the M2 monetary statistics.
• Stocks -  The ISEE call/put ratio looks too complacent to have bottomed the market today - tomorrow should see an early low then a reversal up.
• Silver - Silver pulled back today in what appears to be a sizable correction that should extend into next week.
• Crude Oil -  Crude oil is holding the lows from last week but the bounce looked corrective. 
• Bonds -  Bonds are still working on a wave 4 rally  - a target of 122 is possible in the near term. 
• Dollar - The dollar appears on its way to take out the November highs.

TURNING POINT DAYS:

Mc Hugh has a PHI Turning Date on 2/18 - Tuesday is also a turning point day - we should see some kind of stock market low then.

Depression Beater Portfolio: No Update:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

 

3) Long 2000 shes of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - February 22, 2009

Depression Beater Portfolio: - See below for updates

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

2/22/09 (Commentary for Sunday evening) - Market action on expiration Friday was corrective looking and it appears that we will be testing recent lows again on Monday.  A wide-range day on the major indices is possible  Monday, but with a Turning Point Day on 2/24, bears could be closing out some positions by late Monday or early Tuesday. Some kind of bounce is likely on Tuesday so bears will have to be agile.  Bullish divergences are appearing - unlike the DJIA,  the Nasdaq and S&P500 have not taken out their November lows  and the number of new 52 week lows on the NYSE is far less than seen at those lows. The Bollinger OEX PVI indicator gave us a market supportive reading (1.99) - almost a BUY SIGNAL,  but the Option Premium Ratio continued to decline from 1.44 to 1.33. Gold is threatening to test the March 2008 highs but the bullish sentiment on whispernumber.com is 40.7 % and a short-term top should be close by. However, the large range expansion in the bullish sentiment for gold in recent months should be interpreted in the context of a growing mania for gold and gold shares.  The intermediate term is SUPER BULLISH for gold  - real M2 is picking up some steam here and I feel that the deflationary scare will soon turn into an inflationary one.

  

Stock Markets:  Markets are at risk of a Big Barf on Monday but the stage is being set for a bounce by soon as bullish divergences are appearing.  A Turning Point Day on 2/24 should set the stage for a turn early Tuesday. 

 

PM Complex:  We are close to a short-term top in the PM complex - how much we do indeed correct will be very telling. The expansion in bullish sentiment for gold from 3 - 15 % to 10 - 40.7 % in just the last three months argues that we are in a large Wave 3 up in the PM complex that should lead to a mania for everything precious metal. Strength in silver and platinum are arguing for a huge year for the PM sector - XAU~313 should be see at some point. 

 

THIS WEEK INCLUDES IMPORTANT TURNING POINT WINDOWS IN STOCKS – read new comments below in blue.

TURNING POINT WINDOWS:

·         Gold/Silver –  Looking for gold and the PM complex to make a short-term peak this week - a retest of the March 2008 highs is in the works.  Large speculator Comex longs are reaching levels associated with previous highs.

·         Stocks – Last week was a Turning Point Week for the Stock Market according to Starkey - late Monday could bring that reversal.  A Turning Point Day on 2/24 argues for a low by Tuesday.   

·         Crude Oil – Last week was a Turning Point Week for Crude Oil - if the stock market finds a low, crude oil should bounce to fill the gap from 2/17.

·         Grains – Soybeans rally was corrective on Friday - looking for another leg down.

·         Bonds – Bonds are breaking down again - may try to target chart support at 122.    

·         Currencies -  The Dollar Index made a 5-wave decline late Friday - may see more decline on Monday.   

TURNING POINT DAYS:

There's a Turning Point Day on 2/24 that could be key to gold and the stock market - a top on gold and short-term low is expected for the stock market.  

Depression Beater Portfolio: No Update:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

 

3) Long 2000 shes of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - February 19, 2009

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - No Update today

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

2/19/09 (Commentary for Thursday)  The DJI made a lower closing low than the 11/21 low and the Dow Theorists must be howling but other indices like the NDX have held up. We're in a time window between today and next Tuesday that should see an important low - either a large B-wave test of the 11/21 lows or a Wave 3 of 5 move to SPX=650 or so. The COMPLACENT sentiment on the ISEE call/put ratio (119) argues that we haven't seen the lows yet. It appears that a lot of people are trying to pick a bottom here with call buying. The Option Premium Ratio advanced into the 1.40s and is still shy of the level (1.57) that stopped the 1/21 decline.  Today we posted a more bullish reading on the Bollinger OEX PVI indicator (1.68) but the 5-day MA of the CBOE put/call ratio has not exceeded 1.00 and is around neutral - BEARISH. Gold began a pullback today which should extend into next week. A move to 122 on the March T-Bonds is possible in the short-term.

 

• Gold -  Gold started a pullback that may extend into next week's cycle low.  We believe that a large 3rd wave started on 10/27. We have a Weekly Reversal Signal for gold this week - taking out last week's high in gold and reversing down into next week's 8 week cycle low is expected here but the surprise here should be to the upside. We believe that a mania in gold stocks will be evident by spring as all the "bank reserves" added by panicked governments begins to appear in the M2 monetary statistics.
• Stocks -  The ISEE call/put ratio looks too complacent to have bottomed the market today. A Big Barf is possible between Friday and Tueday - hold cash and be opportunistic.
• Silver - Silver pulled back today in what appears to be a sizable correction that should extend into next week.
• Crude Oil -  Crude oil may have made a short-term low today in this turn window - need an impulse wave on the daily to confirm.
• Bonds -  Bonds may have ended a wave 4 rally and reversed down - a target of 122 is possible in the near term. 
• Dollar - The dollar appears on its way to take out the November highs.

TURNING POINT DAYS:

Mc Hugh has a PHI Turning Date on 2/18 - next 2/24 is also a turning point day - we should see some kind of low before then.

Depression Beater Portfolio: No Update:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

 

3) Long 2000 shes of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - February 18, 2009

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - No Update today

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

2/18/09 (Commentary for Wednesday)  Today was a chance for the option writers to move the market out of immediate danger and they failed. The tepid rally we saw today in the SPX looked corrective and the internals were negative throughout the day - the next impulse wave down may have started late today and it could be a subdividing wave 3 of 5 down from 1/6. The Option Premium Ratio declined to 1.21 and remains at a low level compared to other tests of the 11/21 lows.  Today we posted another NEUTRAL reading on the Bollinger OEX PVI indicator (1.25) but the ISEE call/put ratio (129)  came in at a rather EUPHORIC level and argues for a decline tomorrow. Gold is powering up to test the March highs - gold defied 1-Day Reversal Timing from Starkey - a sign of a runaway market. PM leader AEM has shown weak leadership here and argues for a short-term pullback in the HUI/XAU.  A move to 122 on the March T-Bonds is possible in the short-term.

 

• Gold -  Gold is rallying on a potential 3rd of a 3rd wave up - a runaway market.  Still, despite very high bullish sentiment, the price pattern on gold is bullish for the near term. We believe that a large 3rd wave started on 10/27. We have a Weekly Reversal Signal for gold this week and a 1-Day Reversal signal for tomorrow - taking out last week's high in gold and reversing down into next week's 8 week cycle low is expected here but the surprise here should be to the upside. We believe that a mania in gold stocks will be evident by spring as all the "bank reserves" added by panicked governments begins to appear in the M2 monetary statistics.
• Stocks -  The SPX's corrective rally today implies more down and soon.  The market is at a major decision point. 
• Silver - Silver is due to make a peak this week and reverse - similar to gold. 
• Crude Oil -  Crude oil continued to decline into a turn window that calls for a major low in Crude oil - this is also a Weekly Reversal period from Starkey. 
• Bonds -  Bonds may have ended a wave 4 rally and reversed down - a target of 122 is possible in the near term. 
• Dollar - The dollar appears on its way to take out the November highs.

TURNING POINT DAYS:

Mc Hugh has a PHI Turning Date on 2/18 - we could see a bounce before a big turn down. 

Depression Beater Portfolio: No Update:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

 

3) Long 2000 shes of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - February 17, 2009

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - No Update today

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

2/17/09 (Commentary for Tuesday)  The SPX took out the 1/21 low and appears postioned to blow through the 11/21 lows in a potential Wave 3 of 5 down from last summer - today was a 90% down day - over 90 % of issues were down and 90+ % of the volume was down. Yesterday was a Major Turning Point Day so it's possible that today could have formed a short-term low that will lead to a bounce into expiration - however, if we are in a Wave 3 the market should continue down without much hesitation and target SPX=650.  The price pattern tomorrow should tell us a lot. Sentiment on the option indicators turned a lot more bearish today. The Option Premium Ratio declined to 1.21 and remains at a low level compared to other tests of the 11/21 lows.  The market is in an important time window for an exaggerated move.  Today we posted another NEUTRAL reading on the Bollinger OEX PVI indicator (1.26) but the ISEE call/put ratio (117)  came in at a rather COMPLACENT level. Gold is powering up to test the March highs - tomorrow is 1-Day Reversal for gold according to Starkey and we should look for a potential reversal. PM leader AEM has shown weak leadership here and argues for a short-term pullback in the HUI/XAU.  Bonds had a big move today but the rally looked like part of a EW 4th wave - a move to 122 on the March T-Bonds is possible in the short-term.

 

• Gold -  Gold is rallying on a potential 3rd of a 3rd wave up.  Still, despite very high bullish sentiment, the price pattern on gold is bullish for the near term. We believe that a large 3rd wave started on 10/27. We have a Weekly Reversal Signal for gold this week and a 1-Day Reversal signal for tomorrow - taking out last week's high in gold and reversing down into next week's 8 week cycle low is expected here. We believe that a mania in gold stocks will be evident by spring as all the "bank reserves" added by panicked governments begins to appear in the M2 monetary statistics.
• Stocks -  We took out SPX=797 today and could well be in a Wave 3 of 5 down since summer. The market needs to recover sharply tomorrow morning to stave off the Wave 3 interpretation. The market is at a major decision point. 
• Silver - Silver is due to make a peak this week and reverse - similar to gold. 
• Crude Oil -  Crude oil plunged today into a turn window that calls for a major low in Crude oil - this is also a Weekly Reversal period from Starkey. 
• Bonds -  Bonds are bouncing in a Wave 4 rally from the late December high - a target of 122 is possible in the near term. 
• Dollar - The dollar appears on its way to take out the November highs.

TURNING POINT DAYS:

Mc Hugh has a PHI Turning Date on 2/18 - we could see a bounce before a big turn down. 

Depression Beater Portfolio: No Update:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

 

3) Long 2000 shes of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - February 15, 2009

Depression Beater Portfolio: - See below for updates

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

2/15/09 (Commentary for Sunday evening) - The market is in a make or break time window which should set the tone for the next several months. A slew of cycles appear to be bottoming in the first half of February. Monday, 2/16 is a Major Turning Point Day, and even the the US Markets are closed we should watch the foreign markets closely for reaction to  TARP II. Odds are that we may see a low on Tuesday morning that will be reversed for a rally into expiration.  The Bollinger OEX PVI indicator gave us a market supportive reading (1.44) on Friday's decline but the 5-day MA of the all-exchange put/call ratio stayed bearishly low at .88. The Option Premium Ratio, however, gave us a Large Divergent Rally (from 1.17 to 1.27) arguing for strength on Tuesday. Gold is threatening to test the March 2008 highs but the bullish sentiment on whispernumber.com is 38.7 % and a short -term top should be close by. However, the large range expansion in the bullish sentiment for gold in recent months should be interpreted in the context of a growing mania for gold and gold shares.  The intermediate term is SUPER BULLISH for gold  - real M2 is picking up some steam here and I feel that the deflationary scare will soon turn into an inflationary one. The bond market continues to break down as money flows into stocks - the 5-wave pattern down from the late December highs could still be in progress and the bond may test support at 122 soon. Higher interest rates on the long end confirms that the credit markets are starting to price in a bounce in the economy and the stock market.

  

Stock Markets:  The markets are at a key point of decision - next week's action should produce either a break up or down - there's a cluster of Fibonacci turning points.  A Major Turning Point Day on 2/16 should set the stage for a turn early Tuesday. 

 

PM Complex:  The expansion in bullish sentiment for gold from 3 - 15 % to 10 - 38.7 % in just the last three months argues that we are in a large Wave 3 up in the PM complex that should lead to a mania for everything precious metal. Strength in silver and platinum are arguing for a huge year for the PM sector - XAU~313 should be see at some point. 

 

THIS WEEK INCLUDES IMPORTANT TURNING POINT WINDOWS IN STOCKS – read new comments below in blue.

TURNING POINT WINDOWS:

·         Gold/Silver –  Looking for gold and the PM complex to make a short-term peak next week - a retest of the March 2008 highs is possible.  

·         Stocks – Next week is a Turning Point Week for the Stock Market according to Starkey - a successful retest of the 11/21 lows should be aggressively bought. A Major Turning Point Day on 2/16 could give us a low Tuesday morning.   

·         Crude Oil – This week is a Turning Point Week for Crude Oil - looking for a seasonal low.

·         Grains – Soybeans are setting up to be a good short.

·         Bonds – Bonds are breaking down again - may try to target chart support at 122.    

·         Currencies -  The Dollar Index may be breaking down here - pattern unclear.   

TURNING POINT DAYS:

There's a Turning Point Day on 2/16 that should be key to gold and the stock market - a top on gold and pullback low is expected for the stock market.  

Depression Beater Portfolio: No Update:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

 

3) Long 2000 shes of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - February 12, 2008

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - No Update today

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

2/12/09 (Commentary for Wednesday)  We took out Wednesday's low and made a deeper run at the SPX=800 level - still, the option sentiment indicators look very COMPLACENT and signify a risk for lower prices here . The EW pattern of the market has a very bearish interpretation (Wave 3 of 5 down from 1/6/09) however, the TRIN value on Tuesday closed at > 7 and this provided price support at the lows once again today - it would take some hard selling to take out that support in the near term. The overly bullish sentiment visible in the option sentiment indicators needs to be corrected. The Option Premium Ratio declined to 1.17 and remains at a low level compared to other tests of the 11/21 lows.  The market is in an important time window for an exaggerated move.  Today we posted a NEUTRAL reading on the Bollinger OEX PVI indicator (1.40) but the ISEE call/put ratio (140)  came in at a COMPLACENT level. Gold appears to need another leg up to the $950 level. The HUI/XAU corrected yesterday's powerful move up and then turned up late in the day - newsletter writers have clients piling into gold - a sign of a near-term top. Bonds are rallying impulsively from the 2/9 low and pulling back correctively - a sign of higher prices ahead.

 

• Gold -  Gold is still targeting $950 but the bandwagon is getting a little full. Still, despite very high bullish sentiment, the price pattern on gold is bullish for the near term. We believe that a large 3rd wave started on 10/27. We believe that a mania in gold stocks will be evident by spring as all the "bank reserves" added by panicked governments begins to appear in the M2 monetary statistics.
• Stocks -  The SPX is declining in 5 waves and rallying in 3 waves from 2/9 - taking out SPX=797 will imply that we are in a big move down to the SPX=650 area. However, a 55 week Fib cycle  was due to bottom today from 1/28/08 and a cluster of other cycles are bottoming in early February. The market is at a major decision point. 
• Silver - Silver is making a high-level consolidation. 
• Crude Oil -  Crude oil rallied correctively today.  Next week is a important turn window for crude oil. Natural gas needs to take out the 2/9 high to re-establish a bullish tone.   
• Bonds -  Bonds rallied impulsively from 2/9 and are correcting in 3 waves - should see higher prices. 
• Dollar - The dollar's is rallying impulsively from 2/9.

TURNING POINT DAYS:

Looking ahead to the Turning Point Days on 2/13 and 2/16 - could rally into Friday's close. 

Depression Beater Portfolio: No Update:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

 

3) Long 2000 shes of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

     REPURCHASED 100 shrs of TBT @ $47.39 on 2/5/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ $1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

 

12) Bought 2000 shrs of HL @ $1.80 on 2/6/09

 

13) Bought 1000 shrs of THM @ $2.08 on 2/9/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)