All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - January 29, 2009

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - No change today

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

1/29/09 (Commentary for Thursday)  Was out late so there is just a short report tonight. The SPX declined in a 5-wave pattern on the 5 day 5 min chart - a bounce on the open tomorrow should lead to more selling. We should see a pullback into next week's turning point around 2/5. The market breadth is leading the indices higher, however, and the supportive background news argues that the big C-wave rally may have started on 1/20 and it should last through mid-April. Today we posted another COMPLACENT reading on the Bollinger OEX PVI indicator (.53)  and the ISEE call/put ratios looked COMPLACENT (114) again - we should get more pullback into next week before heading higher - this should set up a good rally into the Spring.  Gold looks poised for a surge above 900 in the next few days and the HUI/XAU should make a B-wave test of Monday's high. Gold could top a 5 wave up pattern on the daily from the 10/28 low as early as next week. Bonds broke down with after a minimal rally - we need to re-enter TBT on a pullback.

Depression Beater Portfolio: No change today:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

 

3) Long 2000 shes of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ 1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 2000 shrs HL @$1.80 GTC (raised from $1.50)

3) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - January 28, 2009

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - No change today

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

1/28/09 (Commentary for Wednesday)  Today's market rally took out Monday's early high and has put me in the bull camp. Still, the market ended the day on a high TICK (> +1100)  which argues for a reversal tomorrow. We should see a pullback into next week's turning point around 2/5. The market breadth is leading the indices higher, however, and the supportive background news argues that the C-wave rally may have started. Today we posted a sixth consecutive COMPLACENT reading on the Bollinger OEX PVI indicator (.56)  and the ISEE call/put ratios looked COMPLACENT (132) again - we should get at least one more pullback into next week before heading higher - this should set up a good rally into the Spring.  Gold and PM stocks continued to pullback today though silver's relative strength is a positive going forward - gold looks poised for a surge above 900 in the next few days and the HUI/XAU should make a B-wave test of Monday's high.

• Gold -  Looking for gold to make a 5th wave high above $930 in the next few days and the HUI/XAU may make a B-wave test of Monday's highs in the next few days. The intermediate term is super bullish. We believe that a large 3rd wave started on 10/27 - we may be currently in wave 5 of 1 of Large Wave 3 up. We believe that a mania in gold stocks will be evident by spring as all the "bank reserves" added by panicked governments begins to appear in the M2 monetary statistics.
• Stocks -  Poor option sentiment statistics continue (BEARISH) but taking out Monday's early high and the volume of today's rally argues that last week's low could have been a successful retest of the 11/21 bottom - expecting a pullback into next week before the big push higher.
• Silver - Silver only made a shallow pullback today - looking bullish for higher prices into next week. 
• Crude Oil -  Crude oil appears to be putting in a bottom here on the daily chart  - stand aside until we see an impulsive rally. Natural gas may have finished a 5-wave decline from 1/6 - watching this market closely. 
• Bonds -  Bonds declined hard after the Fed announcement - the wave 2 correction appears to be taking the form of EW a-b-c flat. Looking to re-enter TBT around 43. 
• Dollar - The dollar made a B-wave peak on 1/23 on the daily chart and appears to be making a C-wave down to test the mid-December lows.

Depression Beater Portfolio: No change today:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

 

3) Long 2000 shes of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ 1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 2000 shrs HL @$1.80 GTC (raised from $1.50)

3) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - January 27, 2009

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - No change today

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

1/27/09 (Commentary for Tuesday)  The market did not decline as expected today but rather rallied in a "rising wedge formation" from yesterday's low. The market appears to want to hold up into the Federal Reserve meeting tomorrow but the advance is rising on low volume and a test of the 11/21 lows appears to be imminent. The TRIN5 has fallen from 10+ in mid-January to an overbought 4.40 - lower than the 1/6 top. Today we posted a fifth consecutive COMPLACENT reading on the Bollinger OEX PVI indicator (.47)  and the ISEE call/put ratios looked COMPLACENT (143) - we should test and possibly exceed the 11/21 lows in the next few days - this should set up a good rally into the Spring.  Gold and PM stocks continued to pullback today - gold looks poised for a surge above 900 in the next few days.

• Gold -  Looking for gold to make a 5th wave high above $930 in the next few days and the HUI/XAU may make a B-wave test of Monday's highs in the next few days. The intermediate term is super bullish. We believe that a large 3rd wave started on 10/27 - we may be currently in wave 5 of 1 of Large Wave 3 up. We believe that a mania in gold stocks will be evident by spring as all the "bank reserves" added by panicked governments begins to appear in the M2 monetary statistics.
• Stocks -  Poor option sentiment statistics and an evolving bearish rising wedge pattern from Monday's lows argue for a near-term test or break of the 11/21 lows - the market could hold up into the Fed Meeting tomorrow before really heading down - expecting lows by next week.
• Silver - Silver only made a shallow pullback today -looking bullish for higher prices into next week. 
• Crude Oil -  Crude oil declined 9 %  today  - stand aside until we see an impulsive rally. Natural gas may have finished a 5-wave decline from 1/6 - watching this market closely. 
• Bonds -  Bonds bounced hard after a successful auction - looking for a wave 2 bounce. Looking to re-enter TBT around 40. 
• Dollar - The dollar made a B-wave peak on 1/23 on the daily chart and appears to be making a C-wave down to test the mid-December lows.

Depression Beater Portfolio: See Update Below:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

 

3) Long 2000 shes of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ 1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 2000 shrs HL @$1.80 GTC (raised from $1.50)

3) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - January 26, 2009

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - See Update Below

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

1/26/09 (Commentary for Monday)  The market reversed after a first hour high on today's annular solar eclipse. Taking profit on February call options and buying hedge puts was our strategy going into today. The market may hold up into the Federal Reserve meeting tomorrow but we are clearly breaking down here and a test of the 11/21 lows appears to be imminent.  Today we posted a fourth consecutive COMPLACENT reading on the Bollinger OEX PVI indicator (.44) and we also received  a large Divergent Decline on the Option Premium Ratio (from 1.60 to 1.32) - we should test and possibly exceed the 11/21 lows in the next few days. SELL RALLIES.  Gold and PM stocks made a short-term top today and pulled back in the first wave of a correction - gold does look poised for a surge above 900 in the next few days.

• Gold -  Looking for gold to make a 5th wave high above $930 in the next few days and the HUI/XAU may make a B-wave test of today's highs.  Gold rallied today on a huge increase in OPEN INTEREST - short-term bullish. The intermediate term is super bullish. We believe that a large 3rd wave started on 10/27 - we may be currently in wave 5 of 1 of Large Wave 3 up. We believe that a mania in gold stocks will be evident by spring as all the "bank reserves" added by panicked governments begins to appear in the M2 monetary statistics.
• Stocks -  Poor option sentiment statistics and an evolving bearish EW pattern argue for a near-term test or break of the 11/21 lows - the market could hold up into the Fed Meeting tomorrow before really  heading down.
• Silver - Silver only made a shallow pullback today -looking bullish for higher prices into next week. 
• Crude Oil -  Crude oil posted a 5-wave rally from 1/22  - buy the dips in USO and UCO. 
• Bonds -  Bonds finished a 5-wave decline from late December on the daily chart - looking for a wave 2 bounce. Sold TBT Feb 40 calls. Will re-enter TBT calls after the wave 2 correction. 
• Dollar - The dollar appeared to peak on Friday and is pulling back.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: See Update Below:

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

 

3) Long 2000 shes of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

     SOLD   100 shrs of TBT @ $49.51 on 1/26/09

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ 1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 2000 shrs HL @$1.80 GTC (raised from $1.50)

3) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - January 25, 2009

Depression Beater Portfolio: - See below for updates

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

1/25/09 (Commentary for Sunday evening) - Monday is an annular solar eclipse and is the end of a 5 day Turning Point Cluster. History says to FADE the move that we get on Monday - a rally should be sold short and and a decline should be bought. WARNING: - the price action on several indices since Wednesday morning looks corrective - after a rally on Monday we may get a big move down. The ISEE call/put ratio came in at a EUPHORIC 180 arguing for a short-term top on Monday. The Bollinger OEX PVI came in at a neutral .79 but the Option Premium Ratio gave us a  Divergent Rally also arguing for early strength on Monday.  Gold and the HUI/XAU looked strong on Friday and are close to finishing a 5-wave move up  from Wednesday - looking to take some profits on Feb PM calls early Monday. The intermediate term is SUPER BULLISH for gold  - real M2 is picking up some steam here and I feel that the deflationary scare will soon turn into an inflationary one.

  

Stock Markets:    NEW OPINION: Many world indices (the FTSE, Nikkei, the DJIA ...) appear to be breaking down in a 5th wave down from last summer or at least a large B-wave test of the 11/21 lows. The SPX did a 5-waves down into 1/20 but the rally since then looks CORRECTIVE and implies more downside after a bounce into the solar eclipse on Monday. The large euphoric ISEE number (180) on Friday is a warning of a top on Monday. If the lows of 1/21 give way on the SPX, a big decline should ensue and a retest of the 11/21 lows would come very fast. 

 

PM Complex:  Gold appears to be rallying in a 5th wave off the low on 10/27 - the PM complex  ended its Wave 4 pullback on 1/15 - and is now accelerating up in a Wave 3 of 5 up that could make a short-term peak on Monday. Silver is the key market to watch here - it historically declines with copper during recessions - if it defies history and rallies with gold (because of investment demand) it indicates that a large PM complex rally is unfolding that could turn into a mania.

 

THIS WEEK INCLUDES IMPORTANT TURNING POINT WINDOWS IN STOCKS – read new comments below in blue.

TURNING POINT WINDOWS:

·         Gold/Silver –  It appears that the PM complex bottomed a wave 4 off the 10/27 low on 1/15 and is now advancing in a wave 3 of 5 - the wave 4 bottomed on 1/21 - a Fibonacci 34 days from the 12/17 high. Wave 5 should peak around 2/9. 

·         Stocks – Tomorrow is an annular Solar Eclipse - we should FADE the move tomorrow - our bias is to short a fake-out rally. The euphoric ISEE call/put value of 180 predicts a short-term top.

·         Crude Oil – Crude oil should finish a 5-wave move up on Monday - the pattern of the pullback should tell us a lot. 

·         Grains – Soybean is setting up to be a good short.

·         Bonds – Bonds are close to a big 5-wave down from late December - should make a low on Monday and then bounce.  Looking to take profits on TBT Feb 40 calls on Monday.

·         Currencies -  The Dollar Index touched its uptrend channel top and reversed on Friday - should pullback further on Monday.   

TURNING POINT DAYS:

There's a Major Turning Point Day Monday 1/26 and an Annular Solar Eclipse that should impact several markets. My bias is to take profits on Feb calls tomorrow and short a false breakout.   

Depression Beater Portfolio: Update - none of our stink bids for gold stocks were hit so far and it appears that gold made an important low on 1/15.

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ 1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 2000 shrs HL @$1.80 GTC (raised from $1.50)

3) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - January 22, 2009

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - No change today

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

1/22/09 (Commentary for Thursday)  The market market a second consecutive INSIDE DAY on the NDX and the SPX - a break above Wednesday's high will be short-term bullish while a break below Wednesday's low will allow for substantial downside. The price action appears to be triangulating and the third consecutive COMPLACENT reading on the Bollinger OEX PVI indicator (.54) and the COMPLACENT reading on the ISEE call/put indicator (115) argue that tomorrow could be a break to the downside. We feel however, that the market has already finished or is close to finishing a B-wave test of the 11/21 lows and that the major move after the string of Turning Point Days that ends on Monday could well be up in a C-wave.  Gold and PM stocks need one more leg down to finish an EW a-b-c flat correction from last Friday - we are close to a major low and are Super Bullish on the intermediate term (XAU ~ 313 is possible by late fall 2009).

• Gold -  Looking for gold and PM stocks to make one more leg down tomorrow.  The intermediate term is super bullish. We believe that a large 3rd wave started on 10/27 - the price correction from 12/17 is just a wave 2 correction of the first leg up. We believe that a mania in gold stocks will be evident by spring as all the "bank reserves" added by panicked governments begins to appear in the M2 monetary statistics.
• Stocks -  The market action today had both bullish and bearish interpretations from a EW point of view - the option statistics are leaning us to the bear side for tomorrow - but a big move up should start next week.
• Silver- Silver's recent advance out of last Thursday's low was stronger than gold - held up strong today.
• Crude Oil -  Crude oil appears to be basing for a rally  - buy the dips in USO and UCO. 
• Bonds -  Bonds looked weak again - money flow into stocks could really bring this market down - add to TBT on pullbacks.
• Dollar - The dollar is trying to subdivide higher here - could pressure gold tomorrow as the forces of deflation try to exert themselves.

Depression Beater Portfolio: Update - raised "stink" bids on working orders - see below - focusing on buying gold stocks on pullbacks into 1/21/09 - Updated prices .

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ 1.61 on 1/12/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 2000 shrs HL @$1.80 GTC (raised from $1.50)

3) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - January 21, 2009

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - No change today

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

1/21/09 (Commentary for Wednesday)  The market bounced today on the second day of the 1/20-1/21 Turning point Cluster and the B-Wave test of the 11/21 lows may have been completed. We may get a rally into the New Moon (1/24) and it could be rather sharp.  The Bollinger OEX PVI Indicator gave us another COMPLACENT reading of .69 but ISEE call/put ratio gave us a low  and bullish 93 reading as index put buying dominate most of today's session (contrary BULLISH). The Option Premium Ratio, however, gave us a Large Divergent Decline which argues for a market decline tomorrow. We bounced today after a Fibonacci 34 days from the 12/17 high which argued for a change in the short-term trend. Gold and PM stocks are due to pull back into the 1/21-1/22 major low window - we are Super Bullish on the intermediate term (XAU ~ 313 is possible by late fall 2009).

• Gold -  Looking for gold to make a higher low on Thursday compared to the previous Thursday.  The intermediate term is super bullish. We believe that a large 3rd wave started on 10/27 - the price correction from 12/17 is just a wave 2 correction of the first leg up. We believe that a mania in gold stocks will be evident by spring as all the "bank reserves" added by panicked governments begins to appear in the M2 monetary statistics.
• Stocks -  The market reversed up today after achieving the downside target forecasted after falling out of the rising wedge formation. We could rally into the next Turning Point Cluster on 1/24 & 1/26 but the Option Premium Ratio argues for weakness tomorrow.
• Silver- Silver's recent advance out of last Thursday's low was stronger than gold - should see pullback tomorrow.
• Crude Oil -  Crude oil rallied in sync with the market - buy the dips in USO and UCO. 
• Bonds -  Bonds looked weak again - money flow into stocks could really bring this market down - add to TBT on pullbacks.
• Dollar - The dollar is trying to subdivide higher here - could pressure gold tomorrow as the forces of deflation try to exert themselves.

Depression Beater Portfolio: Update - raised "stink" bids on working orders - see below - focusing on buying gold stocks on pullbacks into 1/21/09 - Updated prices .

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ 1.61 on 1/12/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 2000 shrs HL @$1.80 GTC (raised from $1.50)

3) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market Timer - January 20, 2009

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - No change today

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

1/20/09 (Commentary for Tuesday)  The market declined into the Bradley Turning Point Cluster 1/20-1/21 today but we got NO OBAMA BOUNCE from the inauguration - this is BEARISH. The SPX also closed below the 820 level where we got the TRIN~10 value on 12/1 - also BEARISH. The Bollinger OEX PVI Indicator gave us a COMPLACENT .66 and the ISEE call/put ratio gave us a high and bearish 124 reading as call buying dominating going into the close. The Option Premium Ratio, however, gave us a Large Divergent Rally which argues for a market rally tomorrow and we are a Fibonacci 34 days from the 12/17 high which argues for a change in trend. Gold and PM stocks also appear to be pulling back into the 1/21-1/22 major low window - we are Super Bullish on the intermediate term (XAU ~ 313 is possible by late fall 2009).

• Gold -  Looking for gold to bottom tomorrow or Thursday.  The intermediate term is super bullish. We believe that a large 3rd wave started on 10/27 - the price correction from 12/17 is just a wave 2 correction of the first leg up. We believe that a mania in gold stocks will be evident by spring as all the "bank reserves" added by panicked governments begins to appear in the M2 monetary statistics.
• Stocks -  Tomorrow is another Turning Point Day and we are a Fibonacci 34 days from the 12/17 high - should get at least a rally attempt tomorrow morning. If the rally is corrective, we need to add to puts. There is still the possibility of a low tomorrow with a rally into the 1/24 New Moon the next move of significance - but the bulls have to give us an impulse leg up on the indices. 
• Silver- Silver is pulling back in sympathy with gold - should try to fill the gap made on Friday morning's rally.
• Crude Oil -  Crude oil took out Thursday's low - stand aside until we see a convincing impulse leg up. 
• Bonds -  Bonds acted poorly on today's horrendous market day - this market is acting weak - add to TBT on pullbacks.
• Dollar - The dollar is trying to subdivide higher here - could pressure gold tomorrow as the forces of deflation try to exert themselves.

Depression Beater Portfolio: Update - raised "stink" bids on working orders - see below - focusing on buying gold stocks on pullbacks into 1/21/09 - Updated prices .

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ 1.61 on 1/12/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 2000 shrs HL @$1.80 GTC (raised from $1.50)

3) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - January 18, 2008

Depression Beater Portfolio: - See below for updates

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

1/18/09 (Commentary for Sunday evening) - The stock market is closed for the holiday on Monday. It looks to us like the broad market wants to pullback into the Turning Point Cluster on 1/20-1/21 - this would be the ideal setup for an intermediate bullish setup, and we are expecting an Obama rally to start soon. The ISEE call/put ratio came in at 89 arguing for a short-term low soon. The Bollinger OEX PVI jumped to 2.36 (> 2.0) giving a second consecutive BUY SIGNAL and also arguing for market strength soon. The TRIN-5 remains at an elevated level of ~ 9 which is BULLISH.  Gold and the HUI/XAU looked strong on Friday and posted a 5-wave advance while negating Starkey 1-Day Reversal Timing - BULLISH - this implies that we may have made the major cycle low in gold a few days early. We should now see an EW a-b-c correction into the projected low on 1/21  which should give us a good buying opportunity - the intermediate term is SUPER BULLISH  - real M2 is picking up some steam here and I feel that the deflationary scare will soon turn into an inflationary one.

  

Stock Markets:    The low of 11/21 appears to have been the low of the Crash Wave. We retested the 12/1 lows on Thursday and bounced up and we should be close to the start of a major rally up soon - I expect the 12/1 lows (with a TRIN ~ 10) to hold for awhile. Taking out the 11/4 high on the SPX negates a bearish EW wave count and argues for a larger retracement of the Crash Wave decline. SPX=650 will be seen at some point next year after the Large B-wave rally peaks in the spring - but the market looks bullish here based on the improving internals.

 

PM Complex:  Gold rallied in 5-waves from 10/24 and peaked on 12/17 - the PM complex may have ended its Wave 2 of 3 pullback on 1/15 - the HUI/XAU retraced about 38.2% of the rally.  We should see a big acceleration up around 1/21 . Settlement concerns on the February contract could be a catalyst at some point but it's not something that should be used to take on a lot of risk.

 

THIS WEEK INCLUDES IMPORTANT TURNING POINT WINDOWS IN STOCKS – read new comments below in blue.

TURNING POINT WINDOWS:

·         Gold/Silver –  It appears that the PM complex bottomed on Thursday and reversed up - looking for a corrective pullback into 1/21 - a Fibonacci 34 days from the 12/17 high. Should see and explosive move up soon - Wave 3 of 3.  

·         Stocks – The next Turning Point Cluster is 1/20-1/21 and we're looking for one more leg down in the indices - however, sentiment indicators have turned bullish. looking for an Obama rally to start around 1/20-1/21.

·         Crude Oil – Crude oil appears to have made a low on Thursday - looking to add to long position in USO & UCO. 

·         Grains – Grains also bottomed on Thursday - the commodity board is turning up.

·         Bonds – Bonds made an important trend reversal down the last week of December and the current rebound rally should be a Wave 2 rally that should fail. Watching for evidence that Wave 2 has run its course

·         Currencies -  The Dollar Index appears to have made a 5-wave advance on the daily chart since the recent bottom - the EW pattern is not clear.   

TURNING POINT DAYS:

The 1/20-21 Turning Point Day Cluster could bring us a short-term low Tuesday or Wednesday.   

Depression Beater Portfolio: Update - raised "stink" bids on working orders - see below - focusing on buying gold stocks on pullbacks into 1/21/09 - Updated prices .

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ 1.61 on 1/12/09

 

10) Bought 100 shrs of COP @ $49.01 on 1/16/09 (New)

 

11) Bought 200 shrs of AMSC @ $16.50 on 1/16/09 (New)

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 2000 shrs HL @$1.80 GTC (raised from $1.50)

3) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)

The Daily JDV Market TImer - January 15, 2009

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below - No change today

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

1/15/09 (Commentary for Thursday)  The market tested the 12/1 low at SPX=820 and bounced but it looks like we need to do one more leg down into next week to complete a EW 5-wave down pattern on most indices from the 1/9 high in the Full Moon Timing Window. In hindsight, the 1/11 Turning Point Day now looks like it was associated with the 1/9 top and the Full Moon that was prominent then. We're keying on 1/21 as a potential low time frame for stocks and gold. Sentiment indicators like the Bollinger OEX PVI rose to a BUY SIGNAL today (2.04) and the all-exchange put/call ratio posted another high number (1.08) - BULLISH.  The TRIN-5 reading of 10.30 is getting close to the numbers seen at the important November lows - BULLISH. Gold and PM stocks also appear to need one more leg down into the lows due next week around 1/21 - a Fibonacci 34 days from the 12/17 - we are Super Bullish on the intermediate term (XAU ~ 313 is possible by late fall 2009, so we have stink bids in to buy gold stocks on weakness into the projected low around 1/21/09.

 

• Gold -  Gold test $790 and bounced but it still looks like we need another leg down into 1/21. Bullish gold sentiment (whispernumber.com) fell from 30 % on 12/19 to 16 %  today - CONSTRUCTIVE. The intermediate term is super bullish and we want to buy PM stocks with stink bids on dips going into 1/21/09. We believe that a large 3rd wave started on 10/27 - the price correction from 12/17 is just a wave 2 correction of the first leg up. We believe that a mania in gold stocks will be evident by spring as all the "bank reserves" added by panicked governments begins to appear in the M2 monetary statistics.
• Stocks -  This is option expiration week - more bounce is possible, however, the most bullish thing that the market can do here is make one more decline into the cluster of Turning Point Days next week  - we think that the market could find a bottom near 1/21 (the Inauguration) and the Obama Rally should kick in. 
• Silver- Silver is pulling back in sympathy with gold - should also make an important low around 1/21.
• Crude Oil -  Crude oil rallied impulsively up on the daily from late December and is pulling back correctively - gasoline is leading the way. Buy UGA on dips. Natural gas is looking to break $5.00 - standing aside until we get a better indication.
• Bonds -  Bonds are rallying  - low bullish sentiment is supportive of further rally - hold off from adding to TBT until next week.
• Dollar - The dollar appears to be making an impulse leg from 1/8 - pattern unclear for now.

Depression Beater Portfolio: Update - raised "stink" bids on working orders - see below - focusing on buying gold stocks on pullbacks into 1/21/09 - Updated prices .

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Long 1000 shrs of TCK at $4.50 on 12/19

 

8) Bought 100 shrs of TBT @ $37.50 on 12/31

 

9) Bought 1000 shrs of NG @ 1.61 on 1/12/09

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.00)

2) Buy 2000 shrs HL @$1.80 GTC (raised from $1.50)

3) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$5.00 GTC (raised from $4.60)