The JDV Market Timer - December 4, 2008

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: - See below for updates

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

 

12/4/08 (Commentary for Thursday)  The 3-wave corrective rally  from Monday topped and reversed down - looking for a low to be made in the 11/5-11/8 turn window.  Sentiment indicators like the Bollinger OEX PVI indicator remained low (.71) and the intra-day ISEE (call/put) indicator registered a VERY COMPLACENT value of 1.97 in the morning. We're looking for at least a retest of the 11/21 lows on Friday or Monday - the huge TRIN value of 10 on Monday's close could imply a major stock market low is close by - the next few trading days will be very illuminating. Gold and the HUI/XAU are declining into seasonal mid-December lows which should give us a good buy entry for an extended run into 2009.  

• Gold -  Gold and PM stocks are declining into mid-December lows - the 10/27 lows should hold. Gold stocks should give us another buying opportunity near the December Full Moon on 12/12 - need to watch Dec Gold open interest closely in case of abnormal delivery requests. 
• Stocks -  The NDX declined in 5-waves from 11/26 to 12/1 and has rallied in a 3-wave corrective manner - AND REVERSED DOWN TODAY  looking for at least a retest of the 11/21 lows - the next two market days will be very telling. The TRIN value of ~ 10 on Monday could imply a major low is close by. 
• Silver- Silver should follow gold down into mid-December lows.
• Crude Oil - Crude oil continues to subdivide down - crude oil is targeting $40 by mid-December - just a few dollars away. Natural Gas broke to new lows - blowing away the basing pattern - stand aside for now.
• Bonds -  Bonds continue to sub-divide up - higher targets are likely in this final blow off. Too early to short - pay attention though.
• Dollar -The dollar continues to work on a sideways consolidation- still looking for a final move up to finish off a 5-wave rally pattern on the daily.   

Sentiment Highlights:

• The 15% premium on CEF on Friday argued for a short-term top on gold.The shortage of physical gold argues for a train wreck to hit the Comex at some point in the not-too-distant future.

Depression Beater Portfolio: No changes today

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 100 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.

 

2) Long 1000 shrs of SLW at $2.73 on 11/24.

 

3) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

 

4) Long 2000 shares of SNG at 1.20 on 12/2.

 

Strategy: Looking for the market to pullback to retest the 11/21 lows. Favor adding to PM stocks, buying natural gas stocks SNG & CHK and adding integrated oils like COP. I plan on scaling out of SDS (2 X short S&P500  ETF) by mid-December at a confluence of major cycle lows.

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy1000 shrs of AUY @$4.00 GTC

2) Buy 2000 shrs HL @$1.50 GTC

3) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$2.60 GTC

 

 

Comments

[Jim P.]

Hello Jack,...Really enjoy reading your blog.

Regarding your 12-06 important change in trend date for Stocks, ...you note your expectation that it might come in as a Low.

But with the late day rally on Fri 12-05, I was wondering if you are open minded to a High here, ..instead of a Low.

Do you think we could be setting up for a turn down into mid-December? I am biased to think this,..
and have a few charts I can send you explaining why.
If interested,...please drop me an email and I will
reply.

Thanks again for sharing your work. Regards, Jim P.