Depression Beater Portfolio: - See below for updates
(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)
12/3/08 (Commentary for Wednesday) The NDX declined in an EW 5-wave pattern from 11/26 to 12/1 and has since rallied in a 3-wave corrective pattern. Volume increased over Monday and Tuesday but sentiment indicators like the Bollinger OEX PVI indicator remained low (.62) and the ISEE (call/put) indicator registered a VERY COMPLACENT value of 1.33. We're looking for at least a retest of the 11/21 lows tomorrow. Gold and the HUI/XAU are declining into seasonal mid-December lows which should give us a good buy entry for an extended run into 2009.
- Gold - Gold and PM stocks are declining into mid-December lows - the 10/27 lows should hold. Gold stocks should give us another buying opportunity near the December Full Moon.
- Stocks - The NDX declined in 5-waves from 11/26 to 12/1 and has rallied in a 3-wave corrective manner - looking for at least a retest of the 11/21 lows.
- Silver- Silver should follow gold down into mid-December lows.
- Crude Oil - Crude oil continues to subdivide down - crude oil is targeting $40 by mid-December. Natural Gas is basing in a bullish manner.
- Bonds - Bonds continue to sub-divide up - higher targets are likely in this final blow off. Too early to short - pay attention though.
- Dollar -The dollar continues to work on a sideways correction - still looking for a final move up to finish off a 5-wave rally pattern on the daily.
Sentiment Highlights:
- The 15% premium on CEF on Friday argued for a short-term top on gold.The shortage of physical gold argues for a train wreck to hit the Comex at some point in the not-too-distant future.
Depression Beater Portfolio: No changes today
(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)
Holdings:
1) Long 100 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.
2) Long 1000 shrs of SLW at $2.73 on 11/24.
3) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.
4) Long 2000 shares of SNG at 1.20 on 12/2.
Strategy: Looking for the market to pullback to retest the 11/21 lows. Favor adding to PM stocks, buying natural gas stocks SNG & CHK and adding integrated oils like COP.
Working orders: New updates (Lower prices on GTC orders)
1) Change GTC order of 1000 shrs AUY @$4.50 to 1000 shrs at $4.00
2) GTC buy order of 2000 shrs HL @$1.50
3) Change GTC buy order of 1000 shrs of SLW @ $2.90 to 1000 shrs @$2.60
Who are you, what is your name and do you have a service?
Posted by: Radha | December 04, 2008 at 04:32 AM