All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 30, 2008

SEASONS GREETINGS

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

12/30/08 (Commentary for Tuesday)  The market did not decline today as expected and instead appears to be rallying into the Turning Point Day on 12/31 - this could have short-term bearish consequences.  Sentiment indicators like the Bollinger OEX PVI indicator did improve to a still COMPLACENT reading (.63) but the 5-day MA of the all-exchange put/call ratio remained very low  - BEARISH. Last year, we were in a Bear Market in late December and the put/call ratios were much higher. The ISE call/put ratio closed at 180 - and its 10 day MA is about the highest for the year - BEARISH.  We need to be cautious about chasing stocks here. The premium on CEF closed at 20.4 % - a short-term sell signal for gold - gold and the HUI/XAU appear vulnerable to another leg down - however, we are Super Bullish on the intermediate term, so we want to buy gold stocks on weakness. Gold and the HUI/XAU appear to be finishing a  sideways pattern from 12/19 - need another leg down to finish an Elliot Wave a-b-c flat correction from 12/17 - but gold and PM stocks have been resilient so far.  Crude oil made a 5-wave advance from the lows of 12/29 - this market may have found a short-term low - buy USO and UCO (not DXO - see discussion below on counterparty risk) on dips.

 

• Gold -  Gold may  have finished an irregular B-wave high today and sentiment is sky high (CEF has a 20% premium) - we should see a C-wave down here to finish an EW a-b-c flat correction. The intermediate term is super bullish and we want to buy on dips. 
• Stocks -  The market did not decline today as expected - it appears to be rallying into the 12/31 Turning Point Day with COMPLACENT sentiment indicators - being cautious here. 
• Silver- A pullback in the short-term would give us a nice setup to go long.
• Crude Oil -  Bullish sentiment for the Energy complex sank to the lowest level I've seen on whispernumber.com (7.9%) on 12/19 and crude oil finished a 5-wave advance today from 12/29 - buy USO and UCO (preferred over DXO since the financial structure does not include counterparty risk)  Natural gas looks very bullish here - buy UNG on dips.
• Bonds -  The bonds keep rallying - one more new high is possible in TLT - smell a trend change soon. 
• Dollar - Sentiment on the dollar dropped from 42.1% bullish on 12/12 to just 20.1% on 12/19 - dollar may have started a decent bounce on Monday. 

Sentiment Highlights:

• The 5 day all-exchange put/call ratio is  .73 - the lowest I've seen this year - BEARISH

Depression Beater Portfolio: No change today - focusing on buying gold stocks on pullbacks 

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10 (prefer UCO for new purchases)

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

Strategy: Looking for the market to pullback in the next few days before adding more long positions. Favor adding to PM stocks and other sectors set to profit from reflation. I plan on scaling out of some SDS (2 X short S&P500  ETF) if we get weakness into the 12/31 Turning Point Day.

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$4.00 GTC

2) Buy 2000 shrs HL @$1.50 GTC

3) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$4.60 GTC

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 29, 2008

SEASONS GREETINGS

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

12/29/08 (Commentary for Monday)  The NDX took out the 12/21 lows and this implies weakness into the next Turning Point Day on 12/31.  Sentiment indicators like the Bollinger OEX PVI indicator gave another COMPLACENT reading (.34) and the 5-day MA of the all-exchange put/call ratio made another yearly low  - BEARISH. Last year, we were in a Bear Market in late December and the put/call ratios were much higher. The ISE call/put ratio closed at 202 - and its 10 day MA is about the highest for the year - BEARISH. The Option Premium Ratio also made a back-to-back value of 1.77 yesterday - another sell signal. We need to be cautious about chasing stocks here. The premium on CEF is close to 20% - a short-term sell signal for gold - gold and the HUI/XAU appear vulnerable to another leg down - however, we are Super Bullish on the intermediate term, so we want to buy gold stocks on weakness. Gold and the HUI/XAU appear to be finishing a  sideways pattern from 12/19 - need another leg down to finish an Elliot Wave a-b-c flat correction from 12/17.  Crude oil made a 5-wave advance from the lows of 12/22 - this market may have found a short-term low - buy USO and DXO on dips.

 

• Gold -  Gold and the HUI/XAU  have made sideways patterns from 12/19. Today looked like a B-wave top - we should see a C-wave down here to finish an EW a-b-c flat correction. The intermediate term is super bullish. 
• Stocks -  The NDX took out the low of 12/21 and the exuberance of call option buyers suggests that we could decline into the next Turning Point Day on 12/31 - caution here. 
• Silver- Like gold - silver needs another leg down.
• Crude Oil -  Bullish sentiment for the Energy complex sank to the lowest level I've seen on whispernumber.com (7.9%) on 12/19 and  Crude Oil finished a 5-wave advance today from 12/22 - watch for a 3-wave correction and buy USO and DXO.  Natural gas looks very bullish here - buy UNG on dips.
• Bonds -  The bonds may be rolling over here but the low bullish sentiment argues for one more higher high soon - watch this market closely - need to start scaling into short positions on TLT. 
• Dollar - Sentiment on the dollar dropped from 42.1% bullish on 12/12 to just 20.1% on 12/19 - still needs a bounce here. 

Sentiment Highlights:

• The 5 day all-exchange put/call ratio is  .73 - the lowest I've seen this year - BEARISH

Depression Beater Portfolio: No change today - focusing on buying gold stocks on pullbacks 

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

Strategy: Looking for the market to pullback in the next few days before adding more long positions. Favor adding to PM stocks and other sectors set to profit from reflation. I plan on scaling out of some SDS (2 X short S&P500  ETF) if we get weakness into the 12/31 Turning Point Day.

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$4.00 GTC

2) Buy 2000 shrs HL @$1.50 GTC

3) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$4.60 GTC

 

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - December 28, 2008

Depression Beater Portfolio: - See below for updates

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

12/28/08 (Commentary for Sunday evening) - The market held the Monday lows but option indicators are EXTREMELY COMPLACENT compared to previous end-of-year seasons and we rallied into the end of last week's turning point cluster - a Fibonacci 34 day count from the 11/21 argues for a turn lower on Monday. Taking out last Monday's lows would open up some bearish possibilities. For gold and the HUI/XAU in the short-term - I'm looking for another leg down here but the intermediate term is SUPER BULLISH  - real M2 is picking up some steam here and I feel that the deflationary scare will soon turn into an inflationary one.

  

Stock Markets:    The low of 11/21 appears to have been the low of the Crash Wave but opportunities for a retest should arise early in the New Year. Taking out the 11/4 high on the SPX negates a bearish EW wave count and argues for a larger retracement of the Crash Wave decline. SPX=650 will be seen at some point next year after the Large B-wave rally peaks in the spring.

 

PM Complex:  Gold rallied in 5-waves from 10/24 and peaked last Wednesday. We are currently seeing a pullback into 8-week cycle lows this week. Mid-January is the time window of a major low. Settlement concerns on the February contract could be a catalyst at some point but it's not something that should be used to take on a lot of risk.

 

THIS WEEK INCLUDES IMPORTANT TURNING POINT WINDOWS IN STOCKS – read new comments below in blue.

TURNING POINT WINDOWS:

·         Gold/Silver –  Gold peaked a 5-wave advance from 10/24 into 12/17.  Both gold and the HUI/XAU need to complete a C-wave down of an EW a-b-c  zig-zag correction - but this market is looking very bullish for the intermediate term.

·         Stocks – Taking out the 12/21 lows will turn us bearish.

·         Crude Oil – USO and DXO are trying to make a rounded bottom - need a close over the 20 day MA to confirm a short-term low. Last Friday's price action was constructive. Natural gas is confirming a low.

·         Grains – Should bounce with other commodities in the REFLATION RALLY.

·         Bonds – Bonds look positioned for further highs.  Still looking for confirmation of a top before assuming bearish posture again. 

·         Currencies -  The US Dollar should get an end-of-year bounce here.     

TURNING POINT DAYS:

The 12/27 Turning point Day could turn  the market lower on Monday. Gold and Crude Oil may be putting in lows as well.   

Depression Beater Portfolio: No change today

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

Holdings:

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio. 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

Strategy: Looking for the market to pullback in the next few days before adding more long positions. Favor adding to PM stocks and other sectors set to profit from reflation. I plan on scaling out of some SDS (2 X short S&P500  ETF) if we get weakness into the end of the year.

Working orders:

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$4.00 GTC

2) Buy 2000 shrs HL @$1.50 GTC

3) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$4.60 GTC

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 25, 2008

SEASONS GREETINGS

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

12/25/08 (Commentary for Thursday)  Low volume holiday trading dominates this listless market but the cluster of turning points from 12/20 to 12/27 argue that this quiet week dominated by retail investors should see an important turn. So far the DJIA is down five days out of six but taking out Monday's low will be a negative - and imply more downside into next Monday morning. The market action is running far behind the recovery after the Crash of 1929 - this is can be construed as a negative. The internals of the market as signified by the McClellan Summation index has steadily improved while the major indices have softened over the past week - this is BULLISH.  Sentiment indicators like the Bollinger OEX PVI indicator gave another COMPLACENT reading (.20) and the 5-day MA of the all-exchange put/call ratio is at rock bottom levels - another Bearish Indication - but these indicators are being influenced by the dominance of retail investors in this time frame. The ISE call/put ratio is at 166 - another COMPLACENT option indicator. The Option Premium Ratio did make a Large Divergenct Decline Wednesday (from 1.98 to 1.77) arguing for market weakness on Friday. Gold and the HUI/XAU appear to be finishing a  sideways pattern from 12/19 - should make another leg down.  Crude oil is still locked in its downtrend - Weekly Reversal Timing has given us nary a bounce here - BEARISH action.

Depression Beater Portfolio: No change today

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

Strategy: Looking for the market to pullback in the next few days before adding more long positions. Favor adding to PM stocks and other sectors set to profit from reflation. I plan on scaling out of some SDS (2 X short S&P500  ETF) if we get weakness into the end of the year.

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$4.00 GTC

2) Buy 2000 shrs HL @$1.50 GTC

3) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$4.60 GTC

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 23, 2008

SEASONS GREETINGS

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

12/23/08 (Commentary for Tuesday)  The cluster of turning points from 12/20 to 12/27 argue that this quiet volume week should see an important turn. So far the DJIA is down five days in a row but the rally from late yesterday was largely retraced and the plethora of call option buying seems to indicate that a lot of retail investors are anticipating a Santa Clause rally - this is NEGATIVE. Taking out the low of Monday would imply a continuation of the decline from 12/17 into the 12/27 Turning Point Day.  Sentiment indicators like the Bollinger OEX PVI indicator gave another COMPLACENT reading (.41) and the 5-day MA of the all-exchange put/call ratio is at rock bottom levels - another Bearish Indication. The ISE call/put ratio is at 134 - another COMPLACENT option indicator. The Option Premium Ratio did make another Large Divergent Rally today (from 1.51 to 1.98) arguing for market strength tomorrow - the only bullish option indicator that I follow.  Gold and the HUI/XAU appear to be making sideways patterns from 12/19 - should make another leg down.   

• Gold -  Gold and the HUI/XAU  have made sideways patterns from 12/19. The high bullish sentiment on whispernumber.com of 29.7% on 12/19 argues for another leg down. 
• Stocks -  Market action today did not give us a bullish follow through from Monday and the exurberance of call option buyers suggests that we could decline into the next Turning Point Day on 12/27 - caution here.  Starkey Weekly Reversal Timing for the SPX was NOT CONFIRMED today. 
• Silver- Silver took out last week's low but did not retrace sharply higher. Weekly Reversal Timing was not confirmed  .
• Crude Oil -  Bullish sentiment for the Energy complex sank to the lowest level I've seen on whispernumber.com (7.9%) on 12/19 but Crude Oil remains in its down channel. Looking for a reversal up this week but this market needs to prove itself.   Natural gas looks more bullish here.
• Bonds -  Bonds rallied back well from morning weakness. Bullish sentiment on bonds was a very low 14.4% from whispernumber.com on 12/19 - looks like another leg up is needed. Too early to short - pay attention though.
• Dollar - Sentiment on the dollar dropped from 42.1% bullish on 12/12 to just 20.1% last Friday - we have a lot of room to bounce here. 

Sentiment Highlights:

• The 5 day all-exchange put/call ratio is  .73 - the lowest I've seen this year - BEARISH

Depression Beater Portfolio: New Update today

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (The SDS price was hit by a cash distribution today that I did not anticipate - $11.46 a share - sorry for the lack of warning here - ETFs like mutual funds have late in the year distributions that need to be avoided if possible if you're in a taxable account)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

Strategy: Looking for the market to pullback in the next few days before adding more long positions. Favor adding to PM stocks and other sectors set to profit from reflation. I plan on scaling out of some SDS (2 X short S&P500  ETF) if we get weakness into the end of the year.

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$4.00 GTC

2) Buy 2000 shrs HL @$1.50 GTC

3) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$4.60 GTC

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 22, 2008

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

 

12/22/08 (Commentary for Monday)  Today was an important day in the markets. The SPX finished a minimal EW a-b-c correction from last Thursday and reversed up at 3:30 EST. Since we had a Major Turning Point Day on 12/20 and since we took out SPX=860 (the low from last week), we may be close to confirming Starkey Weekly Reversal on the SPX (reversal up). We may have seen the low for the week today. The SPX also held about the 12/12 low which maintains a bullish short-term EW wave count on the major indices - we may have just started a 3rd wave of C up from the 12/5 low today.  Sentiment indicators like the Bollinger OEX PVI indicator did fall to a COMPLACENT area (.34) and the 5-day MA of the all-exchange put/call ratio was the lowest I've seen in a long time but since these values came around expiration I'm willing to discount them here. The Option Premium Ratio did make a Large Divergent Rally today arguing for market strength tomorrow.  Gold and the HUI/XAU touched tested their 200-day MAs today last week and reversed sharply down - the HUI/XAU is close to completing a minimal EW a-b-c correction from last Wednesday.   

• Gold -  The HUI/XAU  is in the progress of making an EW a-b-c zig zag decline from last Wednesday. The high bullish sentiment on whispernumber.com of 29.7% argues for more downside short-term. Still, for the intermediate term, gold is at the start of a huge move up. The reserves added to the banking are making their way into the real M2 money supply and the Fed made it clear that they will allow the dollar to be trashed in an effort to prop up the debt markets.
• Stocks -  The  Major Turning Point Day on 12/20 may have reversed the market up late today - could have seen the low for the week today. Early strength tomorrow will confirm Starkey Weekly Reversal Timing for the SPX. 
• Silver- Same as gold.
• Crude Oil - Bullish sentiment for the Energy complex sank to the lowest level I've seen on whispernumber.com (7.9%). Looking for a reversal up this week.  This week is Weekly Reversal Timing for Crude Oil - looking for a bullish pattern on the 5 min to confirm.
• Bonds -  Bonds pulled back correctively today and bullish sentiment on bonds is very low 14.4% from whispernumber.com- looks like another leg up is needed. Too early to short - pay attention though.
• Dollar - Sentiment on the dollar dropped from 42.1% bullish on 12/12 to just 20.1% last Friday - we have a lot of room to bounce. 

Sentiment Highlights:

• The Bollinger OEX PVI indicator (1.80) almost gave a buy signal (>> 2.00) on 12/19 - BULLISH - this suggests that the SPX rally from the 11/21 has more room after today's pullback 

Depression Beater Portfolio: New Update today

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 75 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.  (Sold 25 shrs of SDS at 89.73)

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

Strategy: Looking for the market to pullback in the next few days before adding more long positions. Favor adding to PM stocks and other sectors set to profit from reflation. I plan on scaling out of some SDS (2 X short S&P500  ETF) if we get weakness into next week.

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$4.00 GTC

2) Buy 2000 shrs HL @$1.50 GTC

3) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$4.60 GTC

 

 

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - December 21, 2008

Depression Beater Portfolio: - See below for updates

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

12/21/08 (Commentary for Sunday evening) - It appears that the broad market pulled back into the 12/20 Turning Point Day. We should see more weakness early Monday before a reversal up. Taking out SPX=860 and reversing back up would confirm Weekly Starkey Reversal Timing and argue for a rally into year end. The SPX started an intermediate up turn on 11/21 that should last into the spring. The high value of the Bollinger OEX PVI indicator (1.80) revealed fear among OEX Traders and the Option Premium Ratio is testing its levels of 12/1 - BULLISH. The rebound in the Baltic Dry indices is implying some increase in the international trade of bulk commodities - this is implying a bounce in economic activity for at least a few months.  The  PM complex commenced a pullback last week that should continue into Monday. The HUI/XAU did a 5-wave move down from Wednesday and only managed a 3-wave bounce on Friday. We need at least another leg down on Monday in this very overbought market.  Gold completed a 5-wave diagonal rally from 10/24 last Wednesday - should pull back into 8 week cycle lows this week as the US Dollar continues to bounce.

  

Stock Markets:    The low of 11/21 appears to have been the low of the Crash Wave but opportunities for a retest should arise early in the New Year. Taking out the 11/4 high on the SPX negates a bearish EW wave count and argues for a larger retracement of the Crash Wave decline. SPX=650 will be seen at some point next year after the Large B-wave rally peaks in the spring.

 

PM Complex:  Gold rallied in 5-waves from 10/24 and peaked last Wednesday. We are currently seeing a pullback into 8-week cycle lows this week. Mid-January is the time window of a major low. Settlement concerns on the December contract could be a catalyst at some point but it's not something that should be used to take on a lot of risk.

 

THIS WEEK INCLUDES IMPORTANT TURNING POINT WINDOWS IN STOCKS – read new comments below in blue.

TURNING POINT WINDOWS:

·         Gold/Silver –  Gold peaked a 5-wave advance from 10/24 into last Wednesday.  Both gold and the HUI/XAU need to complete a C-wave down of an EW a-b-c  zig-zag correction - this should cause a sharp move down on Monday.

·         Stocks – The SPX should finish the C-wave of an EW a-b-c correction on Monday - watch the SPX=860 level for a reversal back up early next week.

·         Crude Oil – USO and DXO are trying to make a rounded bottom - need a close over the 20 day MA to confirm a short-term low. The increase in the Baltic Dry Index implies that demand for oil should increase as well soon. Natural Gas plunged on Friday despite the winter storms raging through the country - industrial declines in the use of nat gas have kept this market under pressure.

·         Grains – Should bounce with other commodities in the REFLATION RALLY.

·         Bonds – Bonds look positioned for further highs.  Still looking for confirmation of a top before assuming bearish posture again. 

·         Currencies -  The US Dollar is bouncing from extremely oversold conditions last week.     

TURNING POINT DAYS:

The 12/20 Turning point Day should bottom the market on Monday or Tuesday. Gold and Crude Oil may be putting in lows as well.   

Depression Beater Portfolio: See update below

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 100 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17 

 

7) Bought 1000 shrs TCK at $4.50 on 12/19 (NEW)

 

Strategy: Looking for the market to pullback Monday before adding more long positions. Favor adding to PM stocks and other sectors set to profit from reflation. I plan on scaling out of some SDS (2 X short S&P500  ETF) if we get weakness into early next week.

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$4.00 GTC

2) Buy 2000 shrs HL @$1.50 GTC

3) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$4.60 GTC

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 18, 2008

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

 

12/18/08 (Commentary for Thursday)  The SPX pulled back today in the midst of some very complacent sentiment indicators.   Sentiment indicators like the Bollinger OEX PVI indicator did rise back to a neutral range (1.55) but the ISEE (call/put) indicator registered a COMPLACENT value of 134 on the close. The all-exchange put/call ratio also registered the low for the year so far (.49) arguing for more weakness tomorrow.  Still, the market appears to be putting in a bottoming formation in the intermediate term.  We have a Turning Point Day on 12/20 - continued market weakness going into Friday's close or early Monday would imply that an important low is being made and argue that the SPX and NDX were about to extend their rallies higher in an attempt to reach the 200 MA on the SPX and NDX. Gold and the HUI/XAU touched tested their 200-day MAs today and reversed sharply down confirming Starkey Weekly Reversal Timing - another leg down is needed in the HUI/XAU to complete a correction.    

• Gold -  The HUI/XAU  made a EW 5-wave decline from the high yesterday on the 5 min chart while gold reversed down confirming Starkey Weekly Reversal Timing. Weakness in the PM complex into next week should be bought. Gold is at the start of a huge move up. The reserves added to the banking is making their way into the real M2 money supply and the Fed made it clear that they will allow the dollar to be trashed in an effort to prop up the debt markets.
• Stocks -  The  12/12-12/15 turn window appeared to be a low - the SPX took out the 12/10 highs and negated some bearish EW wave counts. The SPX pulled back today amidst very complacent option sentiment indicators - should see more weakness tomorrow.  If we rally into the weekend and the Turning Point Day, that could change our end of year outlook.
• Silver- Same as gold.
• Crude Oil - Crude oil declined on OPEC oil production cut news - BEARISH. Crude Oil fell below the $40 support line and not even a steep pullback in the dollar could jar it out of its sustained downtrend channel - the world economy has weakened at an alarming speed. This week is Weekly Reversal Timing for Natural Gas - still groping for a bottom.
• Bonds -  Bonds continued to go parabolic - looks like another leg up is needed. Too early to short - pay attention though.
• Dollar - Believe that the dollar completed an EW 5-wave advance off the 3/10 on the daily (with an extended 5th wave). We started a B-wave bounce yesterday that should cool off the metals. 

Sentiment Highlights:

• The Bollinger OEX PVI indicator (1.93) almost gave a buy signal (>> 2.00) on today's rally - BULLISH - this suggests that the SPX rally from the 11/21 has more room to run after a pullback in the next few days 

Depression Beater Portfolio: No change today

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 100 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17 (NEW)

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17  (NEW)

 

Strategy: Looking for the market to pullback in the next few days before adding more long positions. Favor adding to PM stocks and other sectors set to profit from reflation. I plan on scaling out of some SDS (2 X short S&P500  ETF) if we get weakness into next week.

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$4.00 GTC

2) Buy 2000 shrs HL @$1.50 GTC

3) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$4.60 GTC

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 17, 2008

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: - NEW UPDATES - see below

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

 

12/17/08 (Commentary for Wednesday)  Market internals were positive today despite the weakness in the indices.  Sentiment indicators like the Bollinger OEX PVI indicator declined back to a neutral range (1.18) but the ISEE (call/put) indicator registered a COMPLACENT value of 160 on the close. The all-exchange put/call ratio also registered a very low and COMPLACENT .79.  We're looking for a pullback in the next couple of days in the broad market but the market appears to be putting in a bottoming formation in the intermediate term.  Gold and the HUI/XAU pulled back today and may be reacting to Starkey Weekly Reversal Timing this week - BEARISH.    

• Gold -  The HUI/XAU  appeared to finish an EW 5-wave diagonal triangle from the 10/27 lows - the STRONGEST PATTERN OF ALL  THE INDICES - Starkey Weekly Reversal Timing is due this week and the PM complex may have started its pullback today. Added AUY to porfolio today at $ 6.89. 
• Stocks -  The  12/12-12/15 turn window appeared to be a low - the SPX took out the 12/10 highs and negated some bearish EW wave counts. The SPX is pulling back today and the decline appears to be corrective. Looking to scale out of Bear Funds in the next few days and scale into gold and energy stocks. 
• Silver- Same as gold.
• Crude Oil - Crude oil declined on OPEC oil production cut news - BEARISH. If Crude Oil closes below the $40 support line - this market will be back in bearish mode. This week is Weekly Reversal Timing for Natural Gas - still groping for a bottom.
• Bonds -  Bonds continued to go parabolic - looks like another leg up is needed. Too early to short - pay attention though.
• Dollar - Believe that the dollar completed an EW 5-wave advance off the 3/10 on the daily (with an extended 5th wave) - if so, we are close to finishing the first leg down of a correction - should see a B-wave bounce soon. Should see a dollar bounce into next week as the metals cool off.   

Sentiment Highlights:

• The Bollinger OEX PVI indicator (1.93) almost gave a buy signal (>> 2.00) on today's rally - BULLISH - this suggests that the rally from the 11/21 has more room to run after a pullback in the next few days 

Depression Beater Portfolio: New Buys today

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 100 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Long 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

 

5) Long 500 shrs of DRYS at $11.87  on 12/17 (NEW)

 

6) Long 500 shrs of AUY at $5.89 on 12/17  (NEW)

 

Strategy: Looking for the market to pullback in the next few days before adding more long positions. Favor adding to PM stocks and other sectors set to profit from reflation. I plan on scaling out of SDS (2 X short S&P500  ETF) on weakness into next week.

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 500 shrs of AUY @$4.00 GTC

2) Buy 2000 shrs HL @$1.50 GTC

3) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$4.60 GTC

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 16, 2008

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: - See below for updates

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

 

12/16/08 (Commentary for Tuesday)  The market negated a setup for a reversal down similar to the one we had on 11/4 - this is bullish action for the short term. Taking out the 12/10 highs today on the SPX negated some bearish EW price patterns.  Sentiment indicators like the Bollinger OEX PVI indicator actually rose to a near buy signal (1.92) but the ISEE (call/put) indicator registered a COMPLACENT value of 144 on the close.  We're looking for a pullback in the next couple of days in the broad market but should see more rally by the end of the week.  Gold and the HUI/XAU continued to rally and the PM complex appears to be defying a pullback into 8-week cycle lows this week - BULLISH.    

• Gold -  The HUI/XAU  appeared to finish an EW 5-wave diagonal triangle from the 10/27 lows - the STRONGEST PATTERN OF ALL  THE INDICES -  Gold and silver are due to make 8 week cycle lows this week - tomorrow is 1-Day Reversal Timing from Starkey - looking for a reversal down.
• Stocks -  The  12/12-12/15 turn window appeared to be a low - the SPX took out the 12/10 highs and negated some bearish EW wave counts - looking to scale out of Bear Funds in the next few days and scale into gold and energy stocks. 
• Silver- Same as gold.
• Crude Oil - Crude oil finished a 5-wave advance off the 12/1 lows and is correcting the advance - buy on dips - scaling into DXO on pullbacks. Gasoline appears to be reversing up as well.
• Bonds -  Bonds continued to go parabolic - Fed statement juiced the late action. Too early to short - pay attention though.
• Dollar - Believe that the dollarcompleted an EW 5-wave advance off the 3/10 on the daily (with an extended 5th wave) - if so, we are close to finishing the first leg down of a correction - should see a B-wave bounce soon.   

Sentiment Highlights:

• The Bollinger OEX PVI indicator (1.93) almost gave a buy signal (>> 2.00) on today's rally - BULLISH - this suggests that the rally from the 11/21 has more room to run after a pullback in the next few days 

Depression Beater Portfolio: No updates today

(This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

Holdings:

 

1) Long 100 shares of SDS at an average price of 103.2249 on 11/18 - roughly 15% of portfolio.

 

2) Long 200 shrs of CHK at $16.00 on 12/1.

 

3) Long 2000 shrs of SNG at $1.20 on 12/2.

 

4) Bought 1000 shrs of DXO (2 X long crude oil ETF) at $2.84 on 12/10

 

Strategy: Looking for the market to pullback in the next few days before adding more positions. Favor adding to PM stocks, buying natural gas stocks SNG & CHK and adding integrated oils like COP. I plan on scaling out of SDS (2 X short S&P500  ETF) on a B-wave test of the 12/1 lows - maybe this week.

 

Working orders:

 

1) Buy 1000 shrs of AUY @$4.00 GTC

2) Buy 2000 shrs HL @$1.10 GTC

3) Buy 1000 shrs SLW @$2.60 GTC