All Star Market Timing

The Weekly JDV Market Timer – January 29, 2012

NEW!! Check out our new junior oil stock pick. Uranium and gold juniors have been breaking out.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

1/29/12 (Commentary for Sunday) The ES broke 1308 (the Volume Point of Control) to the downside in overnight trading Sunday and this implies more weakness into the turn window on 1/30-1/31. The ES may be tracing out a 3^rd of C down on the 5-min chart and that implies more weakness into Monday. Weakness in crude oil and oil stocks on Friday foreshadowed this break down. The ISE call/put ratio gave a EXTREME reading for the purchase of index calls on Friday. Gold is also declining Sunday and may be giving us a decline into the 1/30-1/31 turning point window.. The fact that the HUI finished a Wave 2 decline on the hourly chart Wednesday morning The HUI confirmed a MAJOR LOW Tuesday morning - the cluster of a 13-month and 34-month Fibonacci step out converging into today. Gold made a Projected Weekly Low Wednesday and then reversed up with a vengeance – buy on 3-wave corrective declines on the 5-min chart. The ES and PMs continue to climb a wall of worry in an economic backdrop that should be equity bullish until midyear – tech earnings and guidance minimize the chance of a recession until Q4 in our opinion. The fact that the HUI confirmed a major low this morning argues that any broad market correction will be brief. Gold clearly made an important low 12/29 at $1525 in the 12/29-12/30 turning point window and reversed to the upside with a 5-wave impulsive rally that may have finished on the on the hourly chart. The GLD gave us a capitulation volume on 12/29– we're looking for a bounce to the top of the daily range – buy gold, silver and gold stocks on dips. The HUI may have finished an EW double zig-zag corrective pattern on the weekly chart – multi-year lows in bullish sentiment on the whisperumber.com poll argue that a Major Buy Point for gold stocks is at hand.

• Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – We believe that the ES is rallying in a B-wave to test the 2011 highs – the alternate count is also short-term bullish – that we finished a 4^th wave on 10/4 and have started a 5^th wave up to new nominal highs. A rally to the 2/10 turn window is expected in the short term.
• Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – The daily chart of gold appears to have finished the Wave C of a large EW a-b-c corrective pattern from the September high on 12/29. Gold made a major low today at $1525 as the 12-wk cycle low bottomed in the 12/29-12/30 turn window – buy the PMs on dips. We're looking for a short-term peak in the 2/10 turning point window.

   

  • Stocks – The ES broke 1308 (the hourly Volume Point of Control) to the downside and is sub-dividing down in a 3^rd wave of C – more decline into the 1/30-1/31 turn window is expected.
  • Gold – Gold is tracing out what appears to be a small 4^th wave on the 5-min chart that should bottom in the 1/30-1/31 turn window.
  • Silver – Look to buy brief, 3-wave declines on the 5-min chart. Looks very bullish into 2/10.
  • Bonds – Bonds are getting a bounce as the ES pulls back in Sunday night trading – looking to add TBT calls on a rally into the 1/30-1/31 turn window.
  • Crude oil – Oil is slicing through $98.83 (the volume point of control on the hourly chart) – this market is declining into February lows which could take root near the 2/10 turn window. Iranian tensions and a rolling supply shock from the 2008-2009 wash out should give us another price spike above $120 going into the first half of 2012 but we may get a typical seasonal low into February first.
  • Dollar index – The ES is rallying on the 5-min chart but the hourly chart still looks bearish. Our target of .90 appears to be farther off in time – perhaps in Q2 of 2012 as the next stage of the European debt crisis rears its head.

       

TURNING POINT DAY:     

The 1/30-1/31 turn window may give us an important turn. The US markets are overbought and pregnant for a quick pull back.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

WEEKLY COMMENTS: The uranium sector (UEC, STM.TO are breaking out from a depressed level – buy these stocks on dips). The gold juniors (EVG.TO ad GYPH should play catch up with gold this year). Coal stocks have been really beaten down but PRPCF is a special situation stock that is trading at a substantial discount to core assets – buy on dips.

 

• NEW PICK - Aroway Energy (ARW.V, C$0.91 +.01) – This western Canadian junior is part of a very sweet JV deal with a private partner in the Peace River basin – it's production share should climb from 669 BOE/day (75% black oil) to over 1000 BOE/day later in 2012 – management has selected a good slate of properties for drilling and it is bearing fruit.  Buy on dips. Use a 20% stop from purchase price.
• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.35 +.025) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.

   

• Uranium Energy (UEC, $4.10 +.05) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
• Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.45 +.03) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
• Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.435 +.007) the spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has made this stock a potential takeover candidate. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.25 +.00) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – January 26, 2012

NEW!! Check out our new junior oil stock pick. Uranium and gold juniors have been breaking out.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

1/26/12 (Commentary for Thursday) The ES is pulling back in a 3-wave corrective pattern to test the Volume Point of Control on the hourly chart – holding 1308 over night should be bullish in the morning – breaking down through 1308 will tell us a deeper correction is unfolding. The decline today was met with substantial put buying. Our most reliable sign of a short-term top in this liquidity driven market is an extreme TRIN5 reading (<4.00) – today's reading was 5.94. The fact that the HUI finished a Wave 2 decline on the hourly chart Wednesday morning The HUI confirmed a MAJOR LOW Tuesday morning - the cluster of a 13-month and 34-month Fibonacci step out converging into today. Gold made a Projected Weekly Low Wednesday and then reversed up with a vengeance – buy on 3-wave corrective declines on the 5-min chart. The ES and PMs continue to climb a wall of worry in an economic backdrop that should be equity bullish until midyear – tech earnings and guidance minimize the chance of a recession until Q4 in our opinion. The fact that the HUI confirmed a major low this morning argues that any broad market correction will be brief. Gold clearly made an important low 12/29 at $1525 in the 12/29-12/30 turning point window and reversed to the upside with a 5-wave impulsive rally that may have finished on the on the hourly chart. The GLD gave us a capitulation volume on 12/29– we're looking for a bounce to the top of the daily range – buy gold, silver and gold stocks on dips. The HUI may have finished an EW double zig-zag corrective pattern on the weekly chart – multi-year lows in bullish sentiment on the whisperumber.com poll argue that a Major Buy Point for gold stocks is at hand.

• Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – We believe that the ES is rallying in a B-wave to test the 2011 highs – the alternate count is also short-term bullish – that we finished a 4^th wave on 10/4 and have started a 5^th wave up to new nominal highs. A rally to the 2/10 turn window is expected in the short term.
• Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – The daily chart of gold appears to have finished the Wave C of a large EW a-b-c corrective pattern from the September high on 12/29. Gold made a major low today at $1525 as the 12-wk cycle low bottomed in the 12/29-12/30 turn window – buy the PMs on dips. We're looking for a short-term peak on the New Moon on 1/22 use a brief pull back to add to longs.

   

  • Stocks – The ES declined in a 3-wave pullback on the 5-min – looking for the market to bottom and reverse up by Friday morning.
  • Gold – Gold rallied in 5-waves off the Wednesday morning low – a 3-wave corrective pull back into Friday should be reversed up.
  • Silver – Silver broke out to the upside impulsively – look to buy brief, 3-wave declines on the 5-min chart. Looks very bullish into 2/10.
  • Bonds – The bonds are trading very weak – the early rally Wednesday was reversed down. A major break down into the spring is possible. Adding to TBT leap calls.
  • Crude oil – As long as oil holds above $98.83, the bullish inverse H&S pattern on the daily argues for a break out to the upside. If the seasonal low in February holds above $98.83 that will put this market in a bullish light. Iranian tensions and a rolling supply shock from the 2008-2009 wash out should give us another price spike above $120 going into the first half of 2012 but we may get a typical seasonal low into February first.
  • Dollar index – The hourly DX rolled over into another impulse leg down – should see lower prices into February. Our target of .90 appears to be farther off in time – perhaps in Q2 of 2012 as the next stage of the European debt crisis rears its head.

       

TURNING POINT DAY:     

The New Moon on 1/23 and the 1/22-1/23 should dominate trading this week – the New Moon held up the indices into late Friday expiration trading and may give us a lift early Monday. We are looking for an important low in the HUI going into 1/23.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

WEEKLY COMMENTS: The uranium sector (UEC, STM.TO are breaking out from a depressed level – buy these stocks on dips). The gold juniors (EVG.TO ad GYPH should play catch up with gold this year). Coal stocks have been really beaten down but PRPCF is a special situation stock that is trading at a substantial discount to core assets – buy on dips.

 

• NEW PICK - Aroway Energy (ARW.V, C$0.90 -.02) – This western Canadian junior is part of a very sweet JV deal with a private partner in the Peace River basin – it's production share should climb from 669 BOE/day (75% black oil) to over 1000 BOE/day later in 2012 – management has selected a good slate of properties for drilling and it is bearing fruit.  Buy on dips. Use a 20% stop from purchase price.
• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.325 -.005) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.

   

• Uranium Energy (UEC, $4.05 +.01) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
• Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.425 -.01) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
• Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.428 -.003) the spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has made this stock a potential takeover candidate. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.2497 +.0129) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – January 25, 2012

NEW!! Check out our new junior oil stock pick. Uranium and gold juniors have been breaking out.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

1/25/12 (Commentary for Wednesday) Good earnings from the tech sector (IBM. AAPL, QCOM, etc.) and inflationary language in the FOMC statement are propelling this market higher. The ES closed above 1319 – the volume point of control on the daily chart - and appears on its way to test 2011 highs going into the Feb 10 turn window – buy on 3-wave corrective declines on the 5-min chart. The market continues to climb a wall of worry with the NYSE advance-decline line making new highs and the ES subdividing higher. The HUI confirmed a MAJOR LOW today - the cluster of a 13-month and 34-month Fibonacci step out converging into today. Gold made a Projected Weekly Low this morning and then reversed up with a vengeance – buy on 3-wave corrective declines on the 5-min chart. The ES and PMs continue to climb a wall of worry in an economic backdrop that should be equity bullish until midyear – tech earnings and guidance minimize the chance of a recession until Q4 in our opinion. The fact that the HUI confirmed a major low this morning argues that any broad market correction will be brief. Gold clearly made an important low 12/29 at $1525 in the 12/29-12/30 turning point window and reversed to the upside with a 5-wave impulsive rally that may have finished on the on the hourly chart – we confirmed Projected Weekly Low Timing this morning after a 3-wave pullback from the New Moon. The GLD gave us a capitulation volume on 12/29– we're looking for a bounce to the top of the daily range – buy gold, silver and gold stocks on dips. The HUI may have finished an EW double zig-zag corrective pattern on the weekly chart – multi-year lows in bullish sentiment on the whisperumber.com poll argue that a Major Buy Point for gold stocks is at hand.

• Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – We believe that the ES is rallying in a B-wave to test the 2011 highs – the alternate count is also short-term bullish – that we finished a 4^th wave on 10/4 and have started a 5^th wave up to new nominal highs. A rally to the 2/10 turn window is expected in the short term.
• Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – The daily chart of gold appears to have finished the Wave C of a large EW a-b-c corrective pattern from the September high on 12/29. Gold made a major low today at $1525 as the 12-wk cycle low bottomed in the 12/29-12/30 turn window – buy the PMs on dips. We're looking for a short-term peak on the New Moon on 1/22 use a brief pull back to add to longs.

   

  • Stocks – The ES took out the "volume point of control" on the daily chart and appears to what to make at least a B-wave test of the 2011 highs into February. The NDX is leading the way. Buy 3-wave corrections on the 5-min chart. The fact that the HUI has made a major low is supportive of the bull case.
  • Gold – Gold pulled back in a 3-wave decline from Monday's New Moon and then exploded higher in a 3^rd wave higher from the 12/29 low. A small consolidation overnight argues for higher prices tomorrow.
  • Silver – Silver broke out to the upside impulsively – look to buy brief, 3-wave declines on the 5-min chart. Looks very bullish into 2/10.
  • Bonds – The bonds are trading very weak – the early rally was reversed. A major break down into the spring is possible. Adding to TBT leap calls.
  • Crude oil – As long as oil holds above $98.83, the bullish inverse H&S pattern on the daily argues for a break out to the upside. If the seasonal low in February holds above $98.83, that will put this market in a bullish light. Iranian tensions and a rolling supply shock from the 2008-2009 wash out should give us another price spike above $120 going into the first half of 2012 but we may get a typical seasonal low into February first.
  • Dollar index – The hourly DX rolled over into another impulse leg down – should see lower prices into February. Our target of .90 appears to be farther off in time – perhaps in Q2 of 2012 as the next stage of the European debt crisis rears its head.

       

TURNING POINT DAY:     

The New Moon on 1/23 and the 1/22-1/23 should dominate trading this week – the New Moon held up the indices into late Friday expiration trading and may give us a lift early Monday. We are looking for an important low in the HUI going into 1/23.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

WEEKLY COMMENTS: The uranium sector (UEC, STM.TO are breaking out from a depressed level – buy these stocks on dips). The gold juniors (EVG.TO ad GYPH should play catch up with gold this year). Coal stocks have been really beaten down but PRPCF is a special situation stock that is trading at a substantial discount to core assets – buy on dips.

 

• NEW PICK - Aroway Energy (ARW.V, C$0.92 +.06) – This western Canadian junior is part of a very sweet JV deal with a private partner in the Peace River basin – it's production share should climb from 669 BOE/day (75% black oil) to over 1000 BOE/day later in 2012 – management has selected a good slate of properties for drilling and it is bearing fruit.  Buy on dips. Use a 20% stop from purchase price.
• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.33 -.01) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.

   

• Uranium Energy (UEC, $4.04 +.19) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
• Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.435 +.01) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
• Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.431 +.097) the spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has made this stock a potential takeover candidate. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.2368 +.0018) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – January 24, 2012

NEW!! Check out our new junior oil stock pick. Uranium and gold juniors have been breaking out.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

1/24/12 (Commentary for Tuesday) The ES is proving resilient after the New Moon and AAPL's blow out earnings should give us a lift early but the main market mover should be the FOMC statement at 2:15 EST. The market continues to climb a wall of worry with the NYSE advance-decline line making new highs and the ES subdividing higher. The Option Premium Ratio gave us a Large Divergent Rally which argues for a bullish opening tomorrow. The HUI is making a MAJOR LOW NOW as the cluster of a 13-month and 34-month Fibonacci step out converge in mid-January. !-Day Reversal Timing for Friday and Weekly Projected Low Timing from Starkey for gold argue for a low by Friday. The ES and PMs continue to climb a wall of worry in an economic backdrop that should be equity bullish until midyear – IBM, INTC and AAPL earnings and guidance minimize the chance of a recession until Q4 in our opinion. The fact that the HUI is close to finishing an EW a-b-c decline from 1/12 argues for just a brief market correction here. Any decline here in the ES should find some support on ES=1273 – the volume point of control on the hourly chart. Gold clearly made an important low 12/29 at $1525 in the 12/29-12/30 turning point window and reversed to the upside with a 5-wave impulsive rally that may have finished on the on the hourly chart – a sizable rally into February is expected but we should get a pull back this week into Projected Weekly Low Timing. The GLD gave us a capitulation volume on 12/29– we're looking for a bounce to the top of the daily range – buy gold, silver and gold stocks on dips. The HUI may have finished an EW double zig-zag corrective pattern on the weekly chart – multi-year lows in bullish sentiment on the whisperumber.com poll argue that a Major Buy Point for gold stocks is at hand.

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that has morphed into a contracting triangle on the daily chart. We believe that this triangle will break to the upside into the New Year. We should get a tradable bounce into January that could extend into the February 10 timeframe – watch the PMs for the clearest timing signals.

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – The daily chart of gold appears to have finished the Wave C of a large EW a-b-c corrective pattern from the September high on 12/29. Gold made a major low today at $1525 as the 12-wk cycle low bottomed in the 12/29-12/30 turn window – buy the PMs on dips. We're looking for a short-term peak on the New Moon on 1/22 use a brief pull back to add to longs,

• Stocks – The ES finished a 5-wave rally on the hourly into the New Moon – the pullback so far is corrective – looking for a low by Wednesday and more rally into 2/10. Holding above 1304 is very bullish.
• Gold – Gold is peaking into the New Moon - look to buy brief, 3-wave declines into Wednesday's FOMC statement for a rally into February 10.
• Silver – Silver is spiking into the New Moon Timing Window – look to buy brief, 3-wave declines on the 5-min chart. Looks very bullish.
• Bonds – The bonds are trading very weak – a major break is due in the spring – maybe by March.
• Crude oil – As long as oil holds above $98.83, the bullish inverse H&S pattern on the daily argues for a break out to the upside. If the seasonal low in February holds above $98.83, that will put this market in a bullish light. Iranian tensions and a rolling supply shock from the 2008-2009 wash out should give us another price spike above $120 going into the first half of 2012 but we may get a typical seasonal low into February first.
• Dollar index – The hourly DX finished an EW 5-wave down pattern – looking for a bounce into the FOMC meeting. Our target of .90 appears to be farther off in time – perhaps in Q2 of 2012 as the next stage of the European debt crisis rears its head.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:     

The New Moon on 1/23 and the 1/22-1/23 should dominate trading this week – the New Moon held up the indices into late Friday expiration trading and may give us a lift early Monday. We are looking for an important low in the HUI going into 1/23.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

WEEKLY COMMENTS: The uranium sector (UEC, STM.TO are breaking out from a depressed level – buy these stocks on dips). The gold juniors (EVG.TO ad GYPH should play catch up with gold this year). Coal stocks have been really beaten down but PRPCF is a special situation stock that is trading at a substantial discount to core assets – buy on dips.

 

• NEW PICK - Aroway Energy (ARW.V, C$0.86 +.03) – This western Canadian junior is part of a very sweet JV deal with a private partner in the Peace River basin – it's production share should climb from 669 BOE/day (75% black oil) to over 1000 BOE/day later in 2012 – management has selected a good slate of properties for drilling and it is bearing fruit.  Buy on dips. Use a 20% stop from purchase price.
• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.345 +.015) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.

   

• Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.85 +.03) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
• Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.425 -.035) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
• Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.424 -.02)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.235 +.01) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – January 23, 2012

NEW!! Check out our new junior oil stock pick. Uranium and gold juniors have been breaking out.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

1/23/12 (Commentary for Monday) Monday's New Moon gave us a short-term peak in the ES and the PMs - looking for a mild retracement into the FOMC statement on Wednesday. The HUI is making a MAJOR LOW in the cluster of a 13-month and 34-month Fibonacci step out. We're looking to add long calls for the PM stocks here and accumulate gold juniors. The ES and PMs continue to climb a wall of worry in an economic backdrop that should be equity bullish until midyear - IBM and INTC earnings and guidance minimize the chance of a recession until Q4 in our opinion. The fact that the HUI is close to finishing an EW a-b-c decline from 1/12 argues for just a brief market correction here. Any decline here in the ES should find some support on ES=1273 – the volume point of control on the hourly chart. Gold clearly made an important low 12/29 at $1525 in the 12/29-12/30 turning point window and reversed to the upside with a 5-wave impulsive rally that may have finished on the on the hourly chart – a sizable rally into February is expected but we should get a pull back this week into Projected Weekly Low Timing. The GLD gave us a capitulation volume on 12/29– we're looking for a bounce to the top of the daily range – buy gold, silver and gold stocks on dips. The HUI may have finished an EW double zig-zag corrective pattern on the weekly chart – multi-year lows in bullish sentiment on the whisperumber.com poll argue that a Major Buy Point for gold stocks is at hand.

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that has morphed into a contracting triangle on the daily chart. We believe that this triangle will break to the upside into the New Year. We should get a tradable bounce into January that could extend into the February 10 timeframe – watch the PMs for the clearest timing signals.

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – The daily chart of gold appears to have finished the Wave C of a large EW a-b-c corrective pattern from the September high on 12/29. Gold made a major low today at $1525 as the 12-wk cycle low bottomed in the 12/29-12/30 turn window – buy the PMs on dips. We're looking for a short-term peak on the New Moon on 1/22 use a brief pull back to add to longs,

• Stocks – The ES finished a 5-wave rally on the hourly into the New Moon – the pullback so far is corrective – looking for a low by Wednesday and more rally into 2/10. Holding above 1304 is very bullish.
• Gold – Gold is peaking into the New Moon - look to buy brief, 3-wave declines into Wednesday's FOMC statement for a rally into February 10.
• Silver – Silver is spiking into the New Moon Timing Window – look to buy brief, 3-wave declines on the 5-min chart. Looks very bullish.
• Bonds – The bonds are trading very weak – a major break is due in the spring – maybe by March.
• Crude oil – Oil may have peaked a B-Wave rally off the 1/13 low – a C-wave down has started on the 5-min chart – a close below $98.83 would target the $91 area. Iranian tensions and a rolling supply shock from the 2008-2009 wash out should give us another price spike above $120 going into the first half of 2012 but we may get a typical seasonal low into February first.
• Dollar index – The hourly DX finished an EW 5-wave down pattern – looking for a bounce into the FOMC meeting. Our target of .90 appears to be farther off in time – perhaps in Q2 of 2012 as the next stage of the European debt crisis rears its head.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:     

The New Moon on 1/23 and the 1/22-1/23 should dominate trading this week – the New Moon held up the indices into late Friday expiration trading and may give us a lift early Monday. We are looking for an important low in the HUI going into 1/23.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

WEEKLY COMMENTS: The uranium sector (UEC, STM.TO are breaking out from a depressed level – buy these stocks on dips). The gold juniors (EVG.TO ad GYPH should play catch up with gold this year). Coal stocks have been really beaten down but PRPCF is a special situation stock that is trading at a substantial discount to core assets – buy on dips.

 

• NEW PICK - Aroway Energy (ARW.V, C$0.83 -.01) – This western Canadian junior is part of a very sweet JV deal with a private partner in the Peace River basin – it's production share should climb from 669 BOE/day (75% black oil) to over 1000 BOE/day later in 2012 – management has selected a good slate of properties for drilling and it is bearing fruit.  Buy on dips. Use a 20% stop from purchase price.
• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.33 -.00) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.

   

• Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.82 -.03) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
• Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.46 -.03) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
• Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.44 -.016)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.225 -.013) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly JDV Market Timer –January 22, 2012

NEW!! Check out our new junior oil stock pick. Uranium and gold juniors have been breaking out.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

1/22/12 (Commentary for Sunday) Monday's New Moon should give us a peak early – perhaps pre-market – and then a retracement. If the retracement is just corrective on the 5-min chart, more rally into February is likely. The sub-20 VIX reading, selected put/call readings, declining oil prices and noticeable bearish divergences between the NDX and ES argue for a multi-day pull back. The fact that the HUI is close to finishing an EW a-b-c decline from 1/12 argues for just a brief market correction here. Earnings from IBM, and INTC, a rough proxy for the economy, showed enough strength to rule out a US recession for probably the first three quarters of 2012 – this should allow stocks a chance to challenge and at least exceed the 2011 highs. Any decline here in the ES should find some support on ES=1273 – the volume point of control on the hourly chart – since the ES broke above 1306, the target of 1325 comes into play. The New Moon is clearly pulling gold and silver up here – a short-term correction is expected but the terminal nature of the HUI's corrective pattern suggests just a brief decline. Gold clearly made an important low 12/29 at $1525 in the 12/29-12/30 turning point window and reversed to the upside with a 5-wave impulsive rally that is close to finishing on the hourly chart – a sizable rally into February is expected but we should get a pull back this week into Projected Weekly Low Timing. The GLD gave us a capitulation volume on 12/29– we're looking for a bounce to the top of the daily range – buy gold, silver and gold stocks on dips. The HUI may have finished an EW double zig-zag corrective pattern on the weekly chart – multi-year lows in bullish sentiment on the whisperumber.com poll argue that a Major Buy Point for gold stocks is at hand.

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that has morphed into a contracting triangle on the daily chart. We believe that this triangle will break to the upside into the New Year. We should get a tradable bounce into January that could extend into the February 10 timeframe – watch the PMs for the clearest timing signals.

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – The daily chart of gold appears to have finished the Wave C of a large EW a-b-c corrective pattern from the September high on 12/29. Gold made a major low today at $1525 as the 12-wk cycle low bottomed in the 12/29-12/30 turn window – buy the PMs on dips. We're looking for a short-term peak on the New Moon on 1/22 use a brief pull back to add to longs,

• Stocks – The ES continues to hold up into the New Moon Timing Window – looking for a short-term peak on Monday. A decline to 1273 is possible this week. If the HUI makes a bottom Monday, the decline in the ES should be brief.
• Gold – Gold is peaking into the New Moon - look to buy brief, 3-wave declines for a rally into February 10.
• Silver – Silver is spiking into the New Moon Timing Window – look to buy brief, 3-wave declines.
• Bonds – The bonds are close to finishing an EW 5-wave decline on the hourly chart – this also argues for a setback in stocks here.
• Crude oil – Oil may have peaked a B-Wave rally off the 1/13 low – a C-wave down has started on the 5-min chart – a close below $98.83 would target the $91 area. Iranian tensions and a rolling supply shock from the 2008-2009 wash out should give us another price spike above $120 going into the first half of 2012 but we may get a typical seasonal low into February first.
• Dollar index – The hourly DX pattern calls for a brief decline to finish a 5-wave down pattern. Our target of .90 appears to be farther off in time – perhaps in Q2 of 2012 as the next stage of the European debt crisis rears its head.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:     

The New Moon on 1/23 and the 1/22-1/23 should dominate trading this week – the New Moon held up the indices into late Friday expiration trading and may give us a lift early Monday. We are looking for an important low in the HUI going into 1/23.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

WEEKLY COMMENTS: The uranium sector (UEC, STM.TO are breaking out from a depressed level – buy these stocks on dips). The gold juniors (EVG.TO ad GYPH should play catch up with gold this year). Coal stocks have been really beaten down but PRPCF is a special situation stock that is trading at a substantial discount to core assets – buy on dips.

 

• NEW PICK - Aroway Energy (ARW.V, C$0.84 -.00) –  This western Canadian junior is part of a very sweet JV deal with a private partner in the Peace River basin – it's production share should climb from 669 BOE/day (75% black oil) to over 1000 BOE/day later in 2012 – management has selected a good slate of properties for drilling and it is bearing fruit.  Buy on dips. Use a 20% stop from purchase price.
• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.33 -.01) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.

   

• Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.85 +.05) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
• Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.49 -.005) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
• Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.456 -.0021)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.238 -.0141) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – January 19, 2012

NEW!! Check out our new WEEKLY COMMENTS section for our junior stock picks. Uranium and gold juniors have been breaking out.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

1/19/12 (Commentary for Thursday) Gold peaked on the 21-day Fibonacci step out from the 12/29 low today and is declining into the 1/22-1/23 turn window – a target of $1611 is possible. We were looking for the ES to peak in the 1/18-1/19 turn window but despite overbought technicals and sentiment the market has not given us any indication of a reversal. GS and the rest of the financials have been rallying underpinning the participation of this rally. Earnings from IBM, and INTC, a rough proxy for the economy, showed enough strength to rule out a US recession for probably the first three quarters of 2012 – this should allow stocks a chance to challenge and at least exceed the 2011 highs. Any decline here in the ES should find some support on ES=1273 – the volume point of control on the hourly chart – since the ES broke above 1306 the target of 1325 comes into play. Crude oil finished an EW 3-wave correction into 1/13 – today we peaked a B-Wave rally into the 1/18-1/19 turn window and have turned down in a Wave C. Gold clearly made an important low 12/29 at $1525 in the 12/29-12/30 turning point window and reversed to the upside with a 5-wave impulsive rally that is close to finishing on the hourly chart – a sizable rally into February is expected but we should get a pull back into the third week of January – around 1/22-1/23. The GLD also gave us a capitulation volume on 12/29– we're looking for a bounce to the top of the daily range – buy gold, silver and gold stocks on dips. The HUI may have finished an EW double zig-zag corrective pattern on the weekly chart – multi-year lows in bullish sentiment on the whisperumber.com poll argue that a Major Buy Point for gold stocks is at hand.

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that has morphed into a contracting triangle on the daily chart. We believe that this triangle will break to the upside into the New Year. We should get a tradable bounce into January that could extend into the February 10 timeframe – watch the PMs for the clearest timing signals.

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – The daily chart of gold appears to have finished the Wave C of a large EW a-b-c corrective pattern from the September high on 12/29. Gold made a major low today at $1525 as the 12-wk cycle low bottomed in the 12/29-12/30 turn window – buy the PMs on dips. We're looking for a short-term peak in the 1/18-1/19 time window followed by a pull back into a higher secondary low in the 1/22-1/23 window.

• Stocks – The ES is extending a 5^th wave to peak in the 1/18-1/19 time window – a target of 1325 is possible – the volume point of control on the daily chart. A decline to 1273 is possible going into next week. Looking for a HIGH this week and then a decline into the post-expiration 1/22-1/23 period. The market looks bullish into February.
• Gold – Gold peaked on today's Fibonacci 21-day step out from 12/29 and is declining impulsively on the 5-min chart. The HUI may take out the 12/29 lows - KGC and NEM already have done so. Looking for a low by 1/23.
• Silver – Also looking for a decline into 1/22-1/23 that will give us an important low.
• Bonds – The bonds are close to finishing an EW 5-wave decline on the hourly chart...
• Crude oil – Oil may have peaked a B-Wave rally off the 1/13 low – a C-wave down has started on the 5-min chart. Iranian tensions and a rolling supply shock from the 2008-2009 wash out should give us another price spike above $120 going into the first half of 2012 but we may get a typical seasonal low into February first.
• Dollar index – The corrective pattern on the hourly DX argues for a bounce into the 1/22-1/23 turn window. Our target of .90 appears to be farther off in time – perhaps in Q2 of 2012 as the next stage of the European debt crisis rears its head.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:     

Looking for highs in gold, silver and the ES in the 1/18-1/19 turn window. If gold takes out 1662.9 and reverses down impulsively – a decline to 1614 by 1/22-1/23 is underway.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

WEEKLY COMMENTS: The uranium sector (UEC, STM.TO are breaking out from a depressed level – buy these stocks on dips). The gold juniors (EVG.TO ad GYPH should play catch up with gold this year). Coal stocks have been really beaten down but PRPCF is a special situation stock that is trading at a substantial discount to core assets – buy on dips.

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.34 -.01) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.80 +.15) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.495 +.045) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.4581 +.014)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.25 -.00) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – January 18, 2012

NEW!! Check out our new WEEKLY COMMENTS section for our junior stock picks. Uranium and gold juniors have been breaking out.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

1/18/12 (Commentary for Wednesday) We were wrong about Weekly Reversal Timing for gold being confirmed yesterday but we feel that the time 1/18-1/19 will top gold for the week and give us a pull back into 1/22-1/23. The decline yesterday in the ES was only a 4^th wave on the 5-min chart – we're getting a 5^th wave rally into our weekly turn window. The ES also gave us an EW 5-wave decline. We should get a corrective bounce into the 1/18-1/19 turn window but the high should be in for the week. From the expected high on 1/18-1/19, a correction should ensue into the post-expiration period 1/22-1/23 – this should give us a key secondary low for gold – ideally around 1614. The ES should find some support on ES=1273 – the volume point of control on the hourly chart – a decline below 1267 argues for a more substantial pull back. Crude oil finished an EW 3-wave correction into 1/13 – we are working on a 5-wave rally on the 5-min chart into the 1/18-1/19 turn window. Gold clearly made an important low 12/29 at $1525 in the 12/29-12/30 turning point window and reversed to the upside with a 5-wave impulsive rally that is close to finishing on the hourly chart – a sizable rally into February is expected but we should get a pull back into the third week of January – around 1/22-1/23. The GLD also gave us a capitulation volume on 12/29– we're looking for a bounce to the top of the daily range – buy gold, silver and gold stocks on dips. The HUI may have finished an EW double zig-zag corrective pattern on the weekly chart – multi-year lows in bullish sentiment on the whisperumber.com poll argue that a Major Buy Point for gold stocks is at hand.

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that has morphed into a contracting triangle on the daily chart. We believe that this triangle will break to the upside into the New Year. We should get a tradable bounce into January that could extend into the February 10 timeframe – watch the PMs for the clearest timing signals.

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – The daily chart of gold appears to have finished the Wave C of a large EW a-b-c corrective pattern from the September high on 12/29. Gold made a major low today at $1525 as the 12-wk cycle low bottomed in the 12/29-12/30 turn window – buy the PMs on dips. We're looking for a short-term peak in the 1/18-1/19 time window followed by a pull back into a higher secondary low in the 1/22-1/23 window.

• Stocks – The ES only gave us a 4^th wave correction on Tuesday – the ES is extending a 5^th wave to peak in the 1/18-1/19 time window – a target of 1316 is possible. A break below 1273 on volume will reverse our longs to shorts. Looking for a HIGH this week and then a decline into the post-expiration 1/22-1/23 period.
• Gold – Gold should finish a 5-wave advance on the hourly from 12/29 into the 1/18-1/19 turn window before a pull back into 1/22-1/23. Bearish divergence from the HUI is arguing for a short-term peak here.
• Silver – After a rally peak into 1/18-1/19 – we should see a decline into 1/22-1/23 that will give us an important low.
• Bonds – The bonds are rallying and may give us a wedgy new high on the hourly. We should top into the 1/22-1/23 time window.
• Crude oil – Oil is giving us a 5-wave rally off the 1/13 low – more bounce is expected into the 1/18-1/19 turn window. Iranian tensions and a rolling supply shock from the 2008-2009 wash out should give us another price spike above $120 going into the first half of 2012 but we may get a typical seasonal low into February first.
• Dollar index – The corrective pattern on the weekly DX argues for a bounce into the 1/22-1/23 turn window. Our target of .90 appears to be farther off in time – perhaps in Q2 of 2012 as the next stage of the European debt crisis rears its head.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:     

Looking for highs in gold, silver and the ES in the 1/18-1/19 turn window. If gold takes out 1662.9 and reverses down impulsively – a decline to 1614 by 1/22-1/23 is underway.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

WEEKLY COMMENTS: The uranium sector (UEC, STM.TO is breaking out from a depressed level – buy these stocks on dips). The gold juniors (EVG.TO ad GYPH should play catch up with gold this year). Coal stocks have been really beaten down but PRPCF is a special situation stock that is trading at a substantial discount to core assets – buy on dips.

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.36 -.01) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.65 +.00) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.45 +.01) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.444 -.014)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.25 -.00) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – January 17, 2011

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

1/17/12 (Commentary for Tuesday) Gold gave us a EW 5-wave decline today on the 5-min chart and confirmed Weekly Reversal Timing to the downside (we took out last week's high and then reversed down to the bottom of the daily range). The ES also gave us an EW 5-wave decline. We should get a corrective bounce into the 1/18-1/19 turn window but the high should be in for the week. From today's high, a correction should ensue into the post-expiration period 1/22-1/23 – this should give us a key secondary low for gold – ideally around 1614. The ES should find some support on ES=1273 – the volume point of control on the hourly chart – a decline below 1267 argues for a more substantial pull back. Crude oil finished an EW 3-wave correction into 1/13 – but today we rallied in 5-waves on the 6-min chart – a peak for the week in the 1/18-1/19 turn widow is likely. Gold clearly made an important low Thursday at $1525 in the 12/29-12/30 turning point window and reversed to the upside with a 5-wave impulsive rally – a sizable rally into February is expected but we should get a higher low into the third week of January – around 1/22-1/23. The GLD also gave us a capitulation volume on 12/29– we're looking for a bounce to the top of the daily range – buy gold, silver and gold stocks on dips. The HUI may have finished an EW double zig-zag corrective pattern on the weekly chart – multi-year lows in bullish sentiment on the whisperumber.com poll argue that a Major Buy Point for gold stocks is at hand.

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that has morphed into a contracting triangle on the daily chart. We believe that this triangle will break to the upside into the New Year. We should get a tradable bounce into January that could extend into the February 10 timeframe – watch the PMs for the clearest timing signals.

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – The daily chart of gold appears to have finished the Wave C of a large EW a-b-c corrective pattern from the September high on 12/29. Gold made a major low today at $1525 as the 12-wk cycle low bottomed in the 12/29-12/30 turn window – buy the PMs on dips. We're looking for a short-term peak in the 1/18-1/19 time window followed by a pull back into a higher secondary low in the 1/22-1/23 window.

• Stocks – The ES may have peaked today – we got a 5-wave decline on the 5-min chart. A break below 1273 on volume will reverse our longs to shorts. The ES gave us a short-term low on 1/13 and may have finished an EW a-b-c correction from 12/29 on the hourly chart early morning. Looking for a HIGH this week and then a decline into the post-expiration 1/22-1/23 period.
• Gold – Gold may have given us a short-term peak this morning – we took out last week's high and then declined in 5-waves to finish near the bottom of the daily range to confirm Weekly Reversal Timing – we should see a bounce into the 1/18-1/19 turn window before a decline into 1/22-1/23. Silver – Silver also gave us a 5-wave decline on the 5-min chart confirming a top for the week. After a 3-wave bounce into 1/18-1/19 – we should see a decline into 1/22-1/23 that will give us an important low.
• Bonds – The bonds are rallying and may give us a wedgy new high on the hourly. We should top into the 1/22-1/23 time window.
• Crude oil – Oil gave us a 5-wave rally off the 1/13 low – more bounce is expected into the 1/18-1/19 turn window. Iranian tensions and a rolling supply shock from the 2008-2009 wash out should give us another price spike above $120 going into the first half of 2012 but we may get a typical seasonal low into February first.
• Dollar index – The DX should give us a bounce into the 1/22-1/23 turn window. Our target of .90 appears to be farther off in time – perhaps in Q2 of 2012 as the next stage of the European debt crisis rears its head.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:     

Looking for highs in gold, silver and the ES in the 1/18-1/19 turn window. If gold takes out 1662.9 and reverses down impulsively – a decline to 1614 by 1/22-1/23 is underway.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL LATE-DECEMBER – TIME TARGET FOR MAJOR CYCLE LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.37 -.03) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.65 +.22) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.435 -.015) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.459 +0615)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.2490 -.0002) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly JDV Market Timer – January 15, 2012

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

1/16/12 (Commentary for Monday) The 1/12-1/13 gave us a short-term low in the ES, gold, silver and oil. There are a lot of mixed technicals for the coming week but we have the clearest timing indication from gold. Gold loves Fibonacci and obeys Fibonacci with impressive regularity – we had a 144-month Fibonacci step out from the key Sept 1999 low to the Sept 2011 high – we should always be looking at Fib step outs from important high/lows in this market. Accordingly, for the week of Jan 16, the 21-day Fib step out falls on 1/18-1/19 and we expect a high for the week and reversal in this time widow for gold, silver and the broad market. From this high, a correction should ensue into the post-expiration period 1/22-1/23 – this should give us a key secondary low for gold – ideally around 1614. Any declines should find support on ES=1273 – the volume point of control on the hourly chart – a decline below 1267 argues for a more substantial pull back. A break above ES=1304 could test an important "volume point of control" on the daily chart at 1316. Crude oil finished an EW 3-wave correction into 1/13 – a close below 98.83 implies a retest of 91. Taking out Friday's low in rude will get us defensive in the ES and PM sector for the very short term. Gold clearly made an important low Thursday at $1525 in the 12/29-12/30 turning point window and reversed to the upside with a 5-wave impulsive rally – a sizable rally into February is expected but we should get a higher low into the third week of January – around 1/22-1/23. The GLD also gave us a capitulation volume on 12/29– we're looking for a bounce to the top of the daily range – buy gold, silver and gold stocks on dips. The HUI may have finished an EW double zig-zag corrective pattern on the weekly chart – multi-year lows in bullish sentiment on the whisperumber.com poll argue that a Major Buy Point for gold stocks is at hand.

Big Picture on Stocks (Updated) – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that has morphed into a contracting triangle on the daily chart. We believe that this triangle will break to the upside into the New Year. We should get a tradable bounce into January that could extend into the February 10 timeframes – watch the PMs for the clearest timing signals.

Big Picture on PMs (Updated) – The daily chart of gold appears to have finished the Wave C of a large EW a-b-c corrective pattern from the September high on 12/29. Gold made a major low today at $1525 as the 12-wk cycle low bottomed in the 12/29-12/30 turn window – buy the PMs on dips. We're looking for a short-term peak in the 1/18-1/19 time window followed by a pull back into a higher secondary low in the 1/22-1/23 window.

• Stocks – The ES should be watched for signs of a short-term peak in the 1/18-1/19 turn window – exceeding 1304 will should give us a quick test of 1316. A break below 1273 on volume will reverse our longs to shorts. The ES gave us a short-term low on 1/13 and is working an EW 5-wave pattern higher. Looking for a HIGH this week and then a decline into the post-expiration 1/22-1/23 period.
• Gold – The EW 5-wave rally from 12/29 is still sub-dividing up – from a low on 1/13 we should see a short-term top in the 1/18-1/19 period before a decline into 1/22-1/23. The HUI appears to have finished an EW double zig-zag pattern on the weekly chart on 12/29. Since the whisper number bullishness on the HUI reached 6.9% - a multi-year low on 12/23 – we think that gold stocks are a Major Buy as we enter 2012.
• Silver – Looking for same timing as gold. We have a target of $32.10 by 1/18-1/19 before a decline into next week. Silver made a double bottom at 26.15 on the daily chart on 12/29 – it also appears that the 48-wk cycle low may have bottomed last week – buy on dips.
• Bonds – The bonds look weak to us as investors panic into short-term German bonds with negative yields – the US Treasury market has become less attractive to international investors. We should get a bounce into the 1/22-1/23 time window.
• Crude oil – Oil plunged to $98.83 on Friday and is bouncing – taking out $98.83 on a closing basis will argue for a test of $91. Just a corrective 3-wave bounce off the 1/13 low will put us on the defensive. Iranian tensions and a rolling supply shock from the 2008-2009 wash out should give us another price spike above $120 going into the first half of 2012 but we may get a typical seasonal low into February first.
• Dollar index – The DX should test last week's low before reversing up into 1/22-1/23. Our target of .90 appears to be farther off in time – perhaps in Q2 of 2012 as the next stage of the European debt crisis rears its head.

     

TURNING POINT DAY:     

Looking for highs in gold, silver and the ES in the 1/18-1/19 turn window. If gold takes out 1662.9 and reverses down impulsively – a decline to 1614 by 1/22-1/23 is underway.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended) DELAY NEW PURCHASES UNTIL LATE-DECEMBER – TIME TARGET FOR MAJOR CYCLE LOWS

 

• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.38 -.005) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy here. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.  
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $3.43 +.21) – The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.41 +.01) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.3975 -.0225)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.2492 +.0042) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.