All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - May 23, 2013

Market Observations for Coming Week: Silver dropped 10% at the start of electronic trading Sunday evening and then proceeded to RETRACE THE ENTIRE DECLINE AND MORE - Monday we saw key Reversal Days in gold, silver and the HUI - we may have seen a very important intermediate low in the PM sector. We got our ideal trading setup Monday: silver below $22 while gold holds above $1321 - we are now looking for a rally going into the Full Moon on May 24. The SPX could top by Tuesday/Wednesday and then give us a quick sell off - however, we are not getting any major sell signals and will look for new highs by June. Despite current weakness across the board in commodities, the great 60 year cycle does forecast an inflationary cycle that is due in late 2013- early 2014.

5/23/13 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX gapped down at the open to complete a 5-wave decline on the hourly - this suggests at least another leg down after the corrective bounce that started today runs its course. An early bounce on Friday should be shorted for another impulse leg down. Gold broke to the upside today before consolidating late in the day - we're looking for further rally into Friday's Full Moon. Crude oil pulled back in an EW a-b-c correction on the hourly - we're looking for a reversal up on the Full Moon. Though the SPX continues to trend higher, the potential for a multi-day pullback is present - the margin debt of the NYSE is at all-time highs, mutual fund cash is close to all-time lows, and the big spec long interest on the S&P500 futures is the highest in history. The bonds are struggling to rally in a C-Wave of an EW a-b-c decline.

 

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX gapped down Thursday morning at the open and finished an EW 5-wave decline on the hourly - we're looking for more bounce into Friday before another leg down. Our bias is that the SPX will make its high for the year in the July-August timeframe.

   

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Silver declined a quick 10% in Sunday evening trading on May 19 (to $20.25) and then reversed up to RETRACE THE ENTIRE DECLINE. The 34-Day Fibonacci step out from April 17 gave us an important turn date on Monday. Gold and silver made 5th wave highs today on the hourly chart - looking for a spike up into the Full Moon.

 

• Stocks – The SPX gapped down on the open today to finish a 5-wave down decline on the hourly chart - looking for more corrective bounce into early Friday before the next leg down.
• Gold – Gold spiked to a 5th wave above Monday's high and then pulled back correctively - looking for a spike up into Friday's Full Moon.
• Silver – Silver spiked up to take out Monday's high and then pulled back correctively - looking for a rally into Friday's Full Moon.
• Bonds – Bonds are breaking down and confirming that a major top is in place - sell corrective bounces on Friday.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil pulled back hard today - looking for a reversal up by Friday.
• Dollar Index – The USD declined hard on Thursday - looking for more reversal up on Friday.

TURNING POINT DAY:

We have two turn windows for this week - May 20 (gold and silver) and May 24 (gold, silver & SPX).

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

WEEKLY COMMENTS: The junior PM sector was a WASTELAND in 2012 and the metal of PM junior investors has been sorely tested in the past year ….. BUT …. as Deep Contrarian Investors we will continue to hold our PM juniors (the Hulbert sentiment readings from PM newsletter writers are giving a Major Contrarian Buy Signal in December 2012) but we will not add anymore until the 50 day MA crosses decisively up through the 200 day MA on the CDNX chart. It may take gold making a daily close above $1800 to catalyze this sector.

• NEW PICK – Aroway Energy (ARW.V, C$0.320 -.00) – This western Canadian junior is part of a very sweet JV deal with a private partner in the Peace River basin – it's production share should climb from 669 BOE/day (75% black oil) to over 1200 BOE/day later in 2012 – management has selected a good slate of properties for drilling and it is bearing fruit. Buy on dips. Use a 20% stop from purchase price.
• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.075 -.00) A world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $1.98 +.10) - The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
• Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.180 -.005) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013.
• Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.1479 -.000) – John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.028 -.004) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced. Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer - May 21, 2013

Market Observations for Coming Week: Silver dropped 10% at the start of electronic trading Sunday evening and then proceeded to RETRACE THE ENTIRE DECLINE AND MORE - Monday we saw key Reversal Days in gold, silver and the HUI - we may have seen a very important intermediate low in the PM sector. We got our ideal trading setup today: silver below $22 while gold holds above $1321 - we are now looking for a rally going into the Full Moon on May 24. The SPX could top by Tuesday and then give us a quick sell off - however, we are not getting any major sell signals and will look for new highs by June. Despite current weakness across the board in commodities, the great 60 year cycle does forecast an inflationary cycle that is due in late 2013- early 2014.

5/21/13 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX made it nineteen consecutive up Tuesdays in a row day as the market once again reversed an early decline. The TF did show some bearish divergence today as it failed to take out Monday's high - the TF hit "big round number resistance" at 1000.2 - we need to see 5-waves down on the hourly ES for confirmation of a short-term top. The PM sector pulled back today after its huge reversal day Monday - even if the rally from the Monday low is just a corrective bounce, we should get one more rally leg into the Full Moon on Friday. Though the SPX continues to trend higher, the potential for a multi-day pullback is present - the margin debt of the NYSE is at all-time highs, mutual fund cash is close to all-time lows, and the big spec long interest on the S&P500 futures is the highest in history. Crude oil pulled back correctively to previous 4th wave support on the hourly - looking to buy oil stocks on dips. The bonds gave us a B-Wave test of the 143'16 and then rebounded in a C-Wave up.

 

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX rallied through option expiration Friday with several key stocks like IBM and GS closing way above their "max option pain prices" - the trend is up on the SPX - still, there is a chance for a quick pullback by Tuesday. However, we will continue to buy dips until we see 5-waves down on the hourly chart. Our bias is that the SPX will make its high for the year in the July-August timeframe.

   

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Silver declined a quick 10% in Sunday evening trading on May 19 (to $20.25) and then reversed up to RETRACE THE ENTIRE DECLINE. The 34-Day Fibonacci step out from April 17 gave us an important turn date on Monday. We are looking for a bounce into the Full Moon on Friday.

 

• Stocks – We remain in "buy the dips mode" until we see 5-waves down on the hourly ES. The sixth consecutive CBOE equity put/call ratio < .55 and the back-to-back small changes in the McClellan Oscillator argue for a decline tomorrow.
• Gold – The PM sector corrected the huge rally day on Monday - we should at least get one more thrust into the Full Moon on Friday.
• Silver – Silver pulled back today - still looking for another leg up into the Full Moon.
• Bonds – Bonds gave us a B-Wave test of 143'16 early Tuesday and then reversed in a C-Wave up.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil pulled back to previous 4th support on the hourly chart. We're impressed by the resiliency to a strong USD. Looking to buy oil stocks on dips.
• Dollar Index – The DX gave us 5-waves down on the hourly chart - looking for more down tomorrow - maybe Wave 3 of C.

TURNING POINT DAY:

We have two turn windows for this week - May 20 (gold and silver) and May 24 (gold, silver & SPX).

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

WEEKLY COMMENTS: The junior PM sector was a WASTELAND in 2012 and the metal of PM junior investors has been sorely tested in the past year ….. BUT …. as Deep Contrarian Investors we will continue to hold our PM juniors (the Hulbert sentiment readings from PM newsletter writers are giving a Major Contrarian Buy Signal in December 2012) but we will not add anymore until the 50 day MA crosses decisively up through the 200 day MA on the CDNX chart. It may take gold making a daily close above $1800 to catalyze this sector.

• NEW PICK – Aroway Energy (ARW.V, C$0.325 -.015) – This western Canadian junior is part of a very sweet JV deal with a private partner in the Peace River basin – it's production share should climb from 669 BOE/day (75% black oil) to over 1200 BOE/day later in 2012 – management has selected a good slate of properties for drilling and it is bearing fruit. Buy on dips. Use a 20% stop from purchase price.
• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.065 -.00) A world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $1.88 +.00) - The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
• Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.180 +.015) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013.
• Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.1515 +.0245) – John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.032 -.00) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced. Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer - May 20, 2013

Market Observations for Coming Week: Silver dropped 10% at the start of electronic trading Sunday evening and then proceeded to RETRACE THE ENTIRE DECLINE AND MORE - today we say key Reversal Days in gold, silver and the HUI - we may have seen a very important intermediate low in the PM sector. We got our ideal trading setup today: silver below $22 while gold holds above $1321 - we are now looking for a rally going into the Full Moon on May 24. The SPX should top by Tuesday and then give us a quick sell off - however, we are not getting any major sell signals and will look for new highs by June. Despite current weakness across the board in commodities, the great 60 year cycle does forecast an inflationary cycle that is due in late 2013- early 2014.

5/20/13 (Commentary for Monday) The ES continued to sub-divide higher on Monday in one of the "most negative seasonal" periods of the year - we may have seen a short-term peak on the ES late in the day as the TF hit "big round number resistance" at 1000.2 - we need to see 5-waves down on the hourly ES for confirmation. The PM sector gave us a HUGE REVERSAL on the 34-Day Fibonacci step out today - silver RETRACED a 10% CRASH in the overnight trading session as gold held above the crucial $1321 low from April 17 - we're looking for a rally bounce into the Full Moon on Friday. The ES and TF may have started an impulsive decline on the 5-min chart late in the day - looking for more confirmation on Tuesday. The potential for a multi-day pullback is present - the margin debt of the NYSE is at all-time highs, mutual fund cash is close to all-time lows, and the big spec long interest on the S&P500 futures is the highest in history - but the trend in the SPX is still up and we like to trade with the trend. The HUI also gave us a Key Reversal Day today and pulled gold and silver higher - looking for a run into the Full Moon. Crude oil rallied impulsively on the hourly chart and made a multi-week high - looking to buy oil stocks on dips. The bonds are giving us a B-Wave test of the 143'16 lows - looking for a C-Wave up on the hourly chart Tuesday - should coincide with a SPX sell off.

 

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX rallied through option expiration Friday with several key stocks like IBM and GS closing way above their "max option pain prices" - the trend is up on the SPX - still, there is a chance for a quick pullback by Tuesday. However, we will continue to buy dips until we see 5-waves down on the hourly chart. Our bias is that the SPX will make its high for the year in the July-August timeframe.

   

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Silver declined a quick 10% in Sunday evening trading on May 19 (to $20.25). The 34-Day Fibonacci step out from April 17 is setting up to be an important turn date on Monday. We are looking for a big bounce into the Full Moon on Friday.

 

• Stocks – The ES and TF may have peaked late in the day - we need more impulsive decline for confirmation. The fifth consecutive CBOE equity put/call ratio < .55, the Divergent Decline on the Option Premium Ratio (.69 to .63) and the small change in the McClellan Oscillator argue for a decline tomorrow.
• Gold – What a day in the PM sector - a SPECTACULAR REVERSAL on the 34-Day Fibonacci step out from the April 17 flash crash low and then Key Reversal Days by gold, silver and the HUI - looking for a run up into Friday's Full Moon.
• Silver – Silver dropped 10% Sunday evening and then RETRACED that loss and more on Monday - looking for a run into the Full Moon.
• Bonds – Bonds gave us a B-Wave test of 143'16 on Monday - looks like it needs to do a C-Wave up.
• Crude Oil – Crude impulsed up to a multi-week high. We're impressed by the resiliency to a strong USD. Looking to buy oil stocks on dips.
• Dollar Index – The DX gave us 5-waves down on the hourly chart - looking for more down after a corrective bounce.

TURNING POINT DAY:

We have two turn windows for this week - May 20 (gold and silver) and May 24 (gold, silver & SPX).

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

WEEKLY COMMENTS: The junior PM sector was a WASTELAND in 2012 and the metal of PM junior investors has been sorely tested in the past year ….. BUT …. as Deep Contrarian Investors we will continue to hold our PM juniors (the Hulbert sentiment readings from PM newsletter writers are giving a Major Contrarian Buy Signal in December 2012) but we will not add anymore until the 50 day MA crosses decisively up through the 200 day MA on the CDNX chart. It may take gold making a daily close above $1800 to catalyze this sector.

• NEW PICK – Aroway Energy (ARW.V, C$0.34 +.00) – This western Canadian junior is part of a very sweet JV deal with a private partner in the Peace River basin – it's production share should climb from 669 BOE/day (75% black oil) to over 1200 BOE/day later in 2012 – management has selected a good slate of properties for drilling and it is bearing fruit. Buy on dips. Use a 20% stop from purchase price.
• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.065 -.01) A world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $1.88 +.03) - The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
• Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.165 -.02) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013.
• Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.1270 +.0388) – John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.032 -.00) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced. Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - May 19, 2013

Market Observations for Coming Week: We are expecting an important trading low for gold and silver Monday, May 19 - this is the 34-Day Fibonacci step out from the April 17 Flash Crash low. Our ideal trading setup is for silver to go below $22 while gold holds above $1321 - we are looking for a rally going into the Full Moon on May 24 (Silver declined 10% to $20.25 basis the July contract by 6 pm EST Sunday). The SPX could top by Tuesday and then give us a quick sell off - however, we are not getting any major sell signals and will look for new highs by June. Despite current weakness across the board in commodities, the great 60 year cycle does forecast an inflationary cycle that is due in late 2013- early 2014.

5/19/13 (Commentary for Sunday) The SPX is starting to go parabolic in one of the "most negative seasonal" periods of the year - we may see a quick sell off by Tuesday but since our technical indicators are not flashing sell signals, we will be looking to buy a multi-day sell off going into the Friday Full Moon. The PM sector is at a critical juncture as we hit the 34-Day Fibonacci step out day on Monday - silver is ALREADY CRATERING to $20.25 at 6:20 PM EST Sunday night - we're looking for a big reversal up on Monday and a bounce into the Full Moon. The SPX may be close to a sell off here but we need something impulsive on the downside to get us interested in shorting - let's see if we can get it on Monday. A strengthening USD testifies to the fact that "global liquidity" is funneling into the US markets. The potential for a multi-day pullback is present - the margin debt of the NYSE is at all-time highs, mutual fund cash is close to all-time lows, and the big spec long interest on the S&P500 futures is the highest in history - but the trend in the SPX is still up and we like to trade with the trend. Gold and silver are plummeting Sunday night especially silver - we think that a 5th wave down will be hitting us by Monday to complete the test of the April 17 low in gold - however, taking out $1321 could argue for a test of $1295. The USD continues to sub-divide up and pressure the PMs - we're close to 5-waves up on the hourly Sunday night. Crude oil looks resilient to us on the hourly - looking to buy oil stocks if the SPX gets a correction this week. The bonds may have done a B-Wave test of the 143'16 lows - looking for a C-Wave up on the hourly chart.

 

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX rallied through option expiration Friday with several key stocks like IBM and GS closing way above their "max option pain prices" - the trend is up on the SPX - still, there is a chance for a quick pullback by Tuesday. However, we will continue to buy dips until we see 5-waves down on the hourly chart. Our bias is that the SPX will make its high for the year in the July-August timeframe.

   

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Silver declined a quick 10% in Sunday evening trading on May 19 (to $20.25). The 34-Day Fibonacci step out from April 17 is setting up to be an important turn date on Monday. We are looking for a big bounce into the Full Moon on Friday.

 

• Stocks – The ES looks poised for more rally on Monday as this market goes parabolic, fueled by new money from several sources. We are inclined to buy dips until we see a 5-wave decline on the hourly chart. There is a chance of a quick pullback by Tuesday - this will be made more likely if gold and silver can manage a reversal up on Monday.
• Gold – Gold is off $20 Sunday evening - looking for a capitulation low Monday morning. Holding above the April 17 low ($1321) while silver has gone below its April 17 low will give us a bullish divergence.
• Silver – Silver dropped 10% Sunday evening and - the 34-Day Fibonacci step out is on Monday and it should give us a reversal up.
• Bonds – Bonds gave us a B-Wave test of 143'16 on Friday - looks like it needs to do a C-Wave up.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil may have finished an EW a-b-c correction on the hourly. We're impressed by the resiliency to a strong USD. Looking to buy oil stocks on dips.
• Dollar Index – The DX may have finished a 5-wave up move on the hourly chart.

TURNING POINT DAY:

We have two turn windows for this week - May 20 (gold and silver) and May 24 (gold, silver & SPX).

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

WEEKLY COMMENTS: The junior PM sector was a WASTELAND in 2012 and the metal of PM junior investors has been sorely tested in the past year ….. BUT …. as Deep Contrarian Investors we will continue to hold our PM juniors (the Hulbert sentiment readings from PM newsletter writers are giving a Major Contrarian Buy Signal in December 2012) but we will not add anymore until the 50 day MA crosses decisively up through the 200 day MA on the CDNX chart. It may take gold to make a daily close above $1800 to catalyze this sector.

• NEW PICK – Aroway Energy (ARW.V, C$0.34 +.00) – This western Canadian junior is part of a very sweet JV deal with a private partner in the Peace River basin – it's production share should climb from 669 BOE/day (75% black oil) to over 1200 BOE/day later in 2012 – management has selected a good slate of properties for drilling and it is bearing fruit. Buy on dips. Use a 20% stop from purchase price.
• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.065 -.005) A world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $1.85 +.02) - The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
• Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.165 -.02) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013.
• Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.0882 -.00) – John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.032 -.00) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced. Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer - May 16, 2013

Market Observations for This Week: The Fibonacci 34-day step out from the gold flash crash low on April 16 is May 20 and this should provide us an important turn - we are expecting an important trading low. The HUI did rally into the New Moon/solar eclipse on May 9 - this may signal that the May 20 turn date will be a low. Despite current weakness across the board in commodities, the great 60 year cycle does forecast an inflationary cycle that is due in late 2013- early 2014.

5/16/13 (Commentary for Thursday) The ES sold off today after a weak batch of economic numbers that got the bond market rallying a little. The SPX may be trying to sell off here but we need something impulsive on the downside to get us interested in shorting - let's see if we can get it on Friday. A strengthening USD testifies to the fact that "global liquidity" is funneling into the US markets. The potential for a multi-day pullback is present - the margin debt of the NYSE is at all-time highs, mutual fund cash is close to all-time lows, and the big spec long interest on the S&P500 futures is the highest in history - but the trend in the SPX is still up and we like to trade with the trend. Gold and silver made a short-term low in the turn window this morning and appear to be bouncing in a 4th wave correction that could last into Friday - we think that a 5th wave down will be hitting us by Monday to complete the test of the April 17 lows. The USD continues to sub-divide up and pressure the PMs - a rally above 83.68 looks likely in the near term. Crude oil looks resilient to us on the hourly - looking to buy oil stocks if the SPX gets a correction this week. The bonds finally got a decent rally today - we may have more to go.

 

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX made quite a run into the New Moon/solar eclipse on May 9 reaching as high as 1635 - with negative seasonals at work this week, the market is set up for a sell off - taking out 1623 will confirm a correction. Since the margin debt on the NYSE is at an all-time high, a decline on Monday could feed on itself for a few days. We could see a quick 5% pullback here in global markets. We still believe that the SPX will make its high for the year in the July-August timeframe.

   

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – The strong USD is pressuring the metals - the upside reversal in the USD on the New Moon/solar eclipse (against all currencies) may imply that gold will head down into a low on May 20 - the 34-Day Fibonacci step out from the April 16 low.

 

• Stocks – The ES sold off a little today on weak economic reports and the bonds actually rallied - more decline Friday may imply a bigger selloff is on the way.
• Gold – Gold bottomed early Thursday and appears to be bouncing in a 4th wave that could last into Friday. A 5th wave down by Monday could finish the test of the April 17 low.
• Silver – Silver also bottomed early Thursday and is bouncing in a 4th wave rally that should last into Friday.
• Bonds – Bonds gave us a nice rally today and may be working on a bigger retracement - this may imply more weakness in stocks.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil may have finished an EW a-b-c correction on the hourly. We're impressed by the resiliency against a strong USD. Looking to buy oil stocks on dips.
• Dollar Index – The DX continues to sub-divide up - looking for new highs above 83.325.

TURNING POINT DAY:

We have two turn windows for this week - May 13-15 (stocks) and May 16-17 (gold and silver).

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

WEEKLY COMMENTS: The junior PM sector was a WASTELAND in 2012 and the metal of PM junior investors has been sorely tested in the past year ….. BUT …. as Deep Contrarian Investors we will continue to hold our PM juniors (the Hulbert sentiment readings from PM newsletter writers are giving a Major Contrarian Buy Signal in December 2012) but we will not add anymore until the 50 day MA crosses decisively up through the 200 day MA on the CDNX chart. It may take gold to make a daily close above $1800 to catalyze this sector.

• NEW PICK – Aroway Energy (ARW.V, C$0.34 +.015) – This western Canadian junior is part of a very sweet JV deal with a private partner in the Peace River basin – it's production share should climb from 669 BOE/day (75% black oil) to over 1200 BOE/day later in 2012 – management has selected a good slate of properties for drilling and it is bearing fruit. Buy on dips. Use a 20% stop from purchase price.
• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.070 -.005) A world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $1.83 +.05) - The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
• Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.185 +.025) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013.
• Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.0882 -.00) – John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.032 -.00) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced. Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer - May 15, 2013

Market Observations for This Week: The Fibonacci 34-day step out from the gold flash crash low on April 16 is May 20 and this should provide us an important turn - based on price action through Wednesday, we are expecting a low by May 20. The HUI did rally into the New Moon/solar eclipse on May 9 - this may signal that the May 20 turn date will be a low. Despite current weakness across the board in commodities, the great 60 year cycle does forecast an inflationary cycle that is due in late 2013- early 2014.

5/15/13 (Commentary for Wednesday) The ES topped for the day at 1659.75 between Fibonacci projections at 1657 and 1665 on the last day of our turn window. One of our most important timing indicators, the TRIN5, declined to 4.10 which is a SELL - we're looking for a weak opening on Thursday. The market is rallying in a seasonally negative time window as every dip gets bought. A strengthening USD testifies to the fact that "global liquidity" is funneling into the US markets. The ES may have traced out the first two waves of an EW a-b-c correction - we should get "wave c" down early tomorrow. The potential for a short-term pullback is still present - the margin debt of the NYSE is at all-time highs, mutual fund cash is close to all-time lows, and the big spec long interest on the S&P500 futures is the highest in history - but the trend in the SPX is still up. Gold is declining to test the April 17 lows as we approach the 34-Day Fibonacci step out from April 17 on May 20 - the HUI and GDXJ have already taken out the April 17 lows. A strong reversal up in the USD against all currencies hit the PMs hard last Thursday - we're looking for gold to make a higher low on the May 20 turn date. Crude oil still looks resilient to us on the hourly - looking to buy oil stocks if the SPX gets a correction this week. The bonds are looking very weak on the hourly despite the good auction last Thursday - sell rallies. The DX reversed up strong against all currencies Thursday on the New Moon and looks like it wants to sub-divide higher above 83.68.

 

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX made quite a run into the New Moon/solar eclipse on May 9 reaching as high as 1635 - with negative seasonals at work this week, the market is set up for a sell off - taking out 1623 will confirm a correction. Since the margin debt on the NYSE is at an all-time high, a decline on Monday could feed on itself for a few days. We could see a quick 5% pullback here in global markets. We still believe that the SPX will make its high for the year in the July-August timeframe.

   

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – The strong USD is pressuring the metals - the upside reversal in the USD on the New Moon/solar eclipse (against all currencies) may imply that gold will head down into a low on May 20 - the 34-Day Fibonacci step out from the April 16 low.

 

• Stocks – The ES peaked for the day between Fib targets at 1657 and 1665 - we may have started a quick EW a-b-c correction with "wave c" due early tomorrow. The TRIN5 hit 4.10 which is a reliable SELL signal.
• Gold – Gold is declining in a 5th wave that should bottom by the May 20 turn window - we're holding GLD and GDX puts. The HUI and GDXJ already took out their April 17 lows.
• Silver – Silver is in a 5th wave that should undercut $22 by the May 20 turn window.
• Bonds – Bonds are sub-dividing down aggressively on the hourly chart - sell 3-wave bounces.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil is still tracing out an EW a-b-c correction on the hourly. We're impressed by the resiliency against a strong USD. Looking to buy oil stocks on dips.
• Dollar Index – The DX reversed up hard against the Yen and all major currencies - looking for new highs above 83.325.

TURNING POINT DAY:

We have two turn windows for this week - May 13-15 (stocks) and May 16-17 (gold and silver).

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

WEEKLY COMMENTS: The junior PM sector was a WASTELAND in 2012 and the metal of PM junior investors has been sorely tested in the past year ….. BUT …. as Deep Contrarian Investors we will continue to hold our PM juniors (the Hulbert sentiment readings from PM newsletter writers are giving a Major Contrarian Buy Signal in December 2012) but we will not add anymore until the 50 day MA crosses decisively up through the 200 day MA on the CDNX chart. It may take gold to make a daily close above $1800 to catalyze this sector.

• NEW PICK – Aroway Energy (ARW.V, C$0.325 -.015) – This western Canadian junior is part of a very sweet JV deal with a private partner in the Peace River basin – it's production share should climb from 669 BOE/day (75% black oil) to over 1200 BOE/day later in 2012 – management has selected a good slate of properties for drilling and it is bearing fruit. Buy on dips. Use a 20% stop from purchase price.
• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.080 +.005) A world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $1.75 +.08) - The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
• Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.165 +.015) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013.
• Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.0935 -.0094) – John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.032 -.001) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced. Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer - May 14, 2013

Market Observations for This Week: The Fibonacci 34-day step out from the gold flash crash low on April 16 is May 20 and this should provide us an important turn - based on price action through Tuesday, we are expecting a low. The HUI did rally into the New Moon/solar eclipse on May 9 - this may signal that the May 20 turn date will be a low. Despite current weakness across the board in commodities, the great 60 year cycle does forecast an inflationary cycle that is due in late 2013- early 2014.

5/14/13 (Commentary for Tuesday) The ES was lifted early by the bullish, pre-market comments of hedge fund manager David Tepper on CNBC - the market is rallying in a seasonally negative time window as every dip gets bought. A strengthening USD testifies to the fact that "global liquidity" is funneling into the US markets. The ES rallied in 5-waves going into the close of the day session - a pullback into Wednesday is expected. The potential for a short-term pullback is still present - the margin debt of the NYSE is at all-time highs, mutual fund cash is close to all-time lows, and the big spec long interest on the S&P500 futures is the highest in history - but the trend in the SPX is still up. Gold appears ready to test the $1400 level on Wednesday - the HUI is leading the PM complex down. A strong reversal up in the USD against all currencies hit the PMs hard last Thursday - taking out $1418 in gold will argue for a low on the May 20 turn date. Crude oil still looks resilient to us on the hourly - looking to buy oil stocks if the SPX gets a correction this week. The bonds are looking very weak on the hourly despite the good auction last Thursday - sell rallies. The DX reversed up strong against all currencies Thursday on the New Moon and looks like it wants to sub-divide higher above 83.68.

 

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX made quite a run into the New Moon/solar eclipse on May 9 reaching as high as 1635 - with negative seasonals at work this week, the market is set up for a sell off - taking out 1623 will confirm a correction. Since the margin debt on the NYSE is at an all-time high, a decline on Monday could feed on itself for a few days. We could see a quick 5% pullback here in global markets. We still believe that the SPX will make its high for the year in the July-August timeframe.

   

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – The strong USD is pressuring the metals - the upside reversal in the USD on the New Moon/solar eclipse (against all currencies) may imply that gold will head down into a low on May 20 - the 34-Day Fibonacci step out from the April 16 low.

 

• Stocks – The ES got a pre-market boost from hedge fund manager David Tepper on CNBC - we have Fib targets at 1657 and 1665.
• Gold – Gold appears to have finished Wave 4 of C - we may be heading down for a 5th wave low by May 20.
• Silver – Silver is trading weaker than gold - looking for a low on May 20.
• Bonds – Bonds are sub-dividing down aggressively on the hourly chart - sell 3-wave bounces.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil is still tracing out an EW a-b-c correction on the hourly. We're impressed by the resiliency against a strong USD. Looking to buy oil stocks on dips.
• Dollar Index – The DX reversed up hard against the Yen and all major currencies - looking for new highs above 83.325.

TURNING POINT DAY:

We have two turn windows for this week - May 13-15 (stocks) and May 16-17 (gold and silver).

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

WEEKLY COMMENTS: The junior PM sector was a WASTELAND in 2012 and the metal of PM junior investors has been sorely tested in the past year ….. BUT …. as Deep Contrarian Investors we will continue to hold our PM juniors (the Hulbert sentiment readings from PM newsletter writers are giving a Major Contrarian Buy Signal in December 2012) but we will not add anymore until the 50 day MA crosses decisively up through the 200 day MA on the CDNX chart. It may take gold to make a daily close above $1800 to catalyze this sector.

• NEW PICK – Aroway Energy (ARW.V, C$0.325 -.015) – This western Canadian junior is part of a very sweet JV deal with a private partner in the Peace River basin – it's production share should climb from 669 BOE/day (75% black oil) to over 1200 BOE/day later in 2012 – management has selected a good slate of properties for drilling and it is bearing fruit. Buy on dips. Use a 20% stop from purchase price.
• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.080 +.005) A world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $1.75 +.08) - The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
• Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.165 +.015) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013.
• Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.0935 -.0094) – John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.032 -.001) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced. Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer - May 13, 2013

Market Observations for This Week: The Fibonacci 34-day step out from the gold flash crash low on April 16 is May 20 and this should provide us an important turn - technical action early in the week should signal if this date will be a high or low. The HUI did rally into the New Moon/solar eclipse on May 9 - this may signal that the May 20 turn date will be a low. Despite current weakness across the board in commodities, the great 60 year cycle does forecast an inflationary cycle that is due in late 2013- early 2014.

5/13/13 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX powered to another all-time high Monday after the New Moon timing window - a sign of strength. Option sentiment indicators still hold out a chance of some downside volatility by the turn window on Wednesday. We had a decent setup to go short today - 5-waves down on the 5-min ES chart on Thursday, the New Moon, and a potential corrective EW a-b-c bounce into Friday's close - however, the market invalidated this setup by taking out Thursday's high at 1632.25 - a move to 1641 now looks in play. Still, the potential for a short-term pullback is still present - the margin debt of the NYSE is at all-time highs, mutual fund cash is close to all-time lows, and the big spec long interest on the S&P500 futures is the highest in history. Gold appears to be tracing out a 4th wave of C down on the hourly chart - we're looking to see the 5th wave down bottom around May 20. A strong reversal up in the USD against all currencies hit the PMs hard last Thursday - taking out $1418 in gold will argue for a low on the May 20 turn date. Crude oil still looks resilient to us on the hourly - looking to buy oil stocks if the SPX gets a correction this week. The bonds are looking very weak on the hourly despite the good auction last Thursday - sell rallies. The DX reversed up strong against all currencies Thursday on the New Moon and looks like it wants to make new highs above 83.68.

 

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX made quite a run into the New Moon/solar eclipse on May 9 reaching as high as 1635 - with negative seasonals at work this week, the market is set up for a sell off - taking out 1623 will confirm a correction. Since the margin debt on the NYSE is at an all-time high, a decline on Monday could feed on itself for a few days. We could see a quick 5% pullback here in global markets. We still believe that the SPX will make its high for the year in the July-August timeframe.

   

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – The strong USD is pressuring the metals - the upside reversal in the USD on the New Moon/solar eclipse (against all currencies) may imply that gold will head down into a low on May 20 - the 34-Day Fibonacci step out from the April 16 low.

 

• Stocks – The SPX invalidated our short for Monday - there is still a chance for some downside volatility going into the turn window on Wednesday.
• Gold – Gold is tracing out a 4th Wave of C on the hourly chart - looking for a 5th wave low by May 20.
• Silver – Silver is trading weaker than gold - looking for a low on May 20.
• Bonds – Bonds are extending a 5-wave decline on the hourly - looking to sell rallies .
• Crude Oil – Crude oil may have ended an EW a-b-c correction on Friday on the hourly. We're impressed by the resiliency against a strong USD.
• Dollar Index – The DX reversed up hard against the Yen and all major currencies - looking for new highs above 83.325.

TURNING POINT DAY:

We have two turn windows for this week - May 13-15 (stocks) and May 16-17 (gold and silver).

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

WEEKLY COMMENTS: The junior PM sector was a WASTELAND in 2012 and the metal of PM junior investors has been sorely tested in the past year ….. BUT …. as Deep Contrarian Investors we will continue to hold our PM juniors (the Hulbert sentiment readings from PM newsletter writers are giving a Major Contrarian Buy Signal in December 2012) but we will not add anymore until the 50 day MA crosses decisively up through the 200 day MA on the CDNX chart. It may take gold to make a daily close above $1800 to catalyze this sector.

• NEW PICK – Aroway Energy (ARW.V, C$0.325 -.015) – This western Canadian junior is part of a very sweet JV deal with a private partner in the Peace River basin – it's production share should climb from 669 BOE/day (75% black oil) to over 1200 BOE/day later in 2012 – management has selected a good slate of properties for drilling and it is bearing fruit. Buy on dips. Use a 20% stop from purchase price.
• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.075 -.005) A world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $1.67 -.00) - The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
• Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.150 -.00) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013.
• Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.1014 -.0074) – John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.033 +.003) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced. Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - May 12, 2013

Market Observations for This Week: The Fibonacci 34-day step out from the gold flash crash low is May 20 and this should provide us an important turn - technical action early in the week should signal if this date will be a high or low. The HUI did rally into the New Moon/solar eclipse on May 9 - this may signal that the May 20 turn date will be a low. Despite current weakness across the board in commodities, the great 60 year cycle does forecast an inflationary cycle that is due in late 2013- early 2014.

5/12/13 (Commentary for Sunday) The ES gave us a quite a run into the New Moon/solar eclipse - this may have given us a short-term top based on weakening option sentiment indicators and a breath divergence. We have a decent setup to go short here - 5-waves down on the 5-min ES chart on Thursday, the New Moon, and a potential corrective EW a-b-c bounce into Friday's close. We need a hard down day on Monday to validate a bearish pattern in the ES - taking out Thursday's high at 1632.25 will argue for a move to 1641. We may have made a short-term high on Thursday's New Moon/solar eclipse and the market may be vulnerable for the largest percentage decline since the move off the November lows - the margin debt of the NYSE is at all-time highs, mutual fund cash is close to all-time lows, and the big spec long interest on the S&P500 futures is the highest in history. A strong reversal up in the USD against all currencies hit the PMs hard - taking out $1418 in gold will argue for a low on the May 20 turn date. Another CRACK appeared in one of our favorite "wall of worry" indicators, the Wall Street Sentiment Survey, which swung to a very complacent (47% bullish 6% bearish) reading on May 3 from the reading on April 26 (33% bullish 50% bearish) - a lot of "bears" appear to have been converted to the "bullish camp" after the April NFP jobs report - this implies to us a steeper correction this week as the "bullish forces" of the New Moon recede behind us. Crude oil still looks resilient to us on the hourly - looking to buy oil stocks if the SPX gets a correction this week. The bonds are looking weak on the hourly but should get a bounce Monday if stocks sell off. The DX reversed up strong against all currencies Thursday on the New Moon and looks like it wants to make new highs above 83.68.

 

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX made quite a run into the New Moon/solar eclipse on May 9 reaching as high as 1635 - with negative seasonals at work this week, the market is set up for a sell off - taking out 1623 will confirm a correction. Since the margin debt on the NYSE is at an all-time high, a decline on Monday could feed on itself for a few days. We could see a quick 5% pullback here in global markets. We still believe that the SPX will make its high for the year in the July-August timeframe.

   

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – The strong USD is pressuring the metals - the upside reversal in the USD on the New Moon/solar eclipse (against all currencies) may imply that gold will head down into a low on May 20 - the 34-Day Fibonacci step out from the April 16 low.

 

• Stocks – We may have made a short-term peak on the ES on the New Moon - breaking below 1620 will confirm a sell off.
• Gold – Gold sold off hard on Friday but bounced back in the afternoon lead by the HUI - strength in the USD may pressure the PM sector going into the May 20 turn date. Watching the HUI for trade signals.
• Silver – Silver held up better than gold on Friday - need to see more trade on Monday to get a better feel for this market.
• Bonds – Bonds are extending a 5-wave decline on the hourly but we are seeing bullish divergence on momentum oscillators - looking for a bounce on Monday.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil may have ended an EW a-b-c correction on Friday on the hourly. We're impressed by the resiliency against a strong USD.
• Dollar Index – The DX reversed up hard against the Yen and all major currencies - looking new highs above 83.325.

TURNING POINT DAY:

We have two turn windows for this week - May 13-15 (stocks) and May 16-17 (gold and silver).

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

WEEKLY COMMENTS: The junior PM sector was a WASTELAND in 2012 and the metal of PM junior investors has been sorely tested in the past year ….. BUT …. as Deep Contrarian Investors we will continue to hold our PM juniors (the Hulbert sentiment readings from PM newsletter writers are giving a Major Contrarian Buy Signal in December 2012) but we will not add anymore until the 50 day MA crosses decisively up through the 200 day MA on the CDNX chart. It may take gold to make a daily close above $1800 to catalyze this sector.

• NEW PICK – Aroway Energy (ARW.V, C$0.340 -.00) – This western Canadian junior is part of a very sweet JV deal with a private partner in the Peace River basin – it's production share should climb from 669 BOE/day (75% black oil) to over 1200 BOE/day later in 2012 – management has selected a good slate of properties for drilling and it is bearing fruit. Buy on dips. Use a 20% stop from purchase price.
• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.080 -.00) A world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $1.67 -.05) - The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
• Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.150 -.00) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013.
• Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.1088 -.0002) – John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.030 -.005) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced. Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer - May 9. 2013

Market Observations for This Week: The COT report for gold released on Friday saw commercial shorts at -84K and small traders at a RARE NET NEGATIVE position (-2K)- these are numbers seen at major lows during the last decade bull market in gold - NOT AT INTERIM TOPS. The rebound PM rally needs more time to play itself out before a move down to test the lows. Despite current weakness across the board in commodities, the great 60 year cycle does forecast an inflationary cycle that is due in late 2013- early 2014.

5/09/13 (Commentary for Thursday) The ES declined impulsively on the New Moon after taking out yesterday's highs - just a corrective bounce into tomorrow will get us short. We have a decent setup to go short here - 5-waves down on the 5-min ES chart, a New Moon, an extended market, and sentiment readings that have become overly bullish by several measures. We may have made a short-term high in today's New Moon/solar eclipse and the market may be vulnerable for the largest percentage decline since the move off the November lows - the margin debt of the NYSE is at all-time highs, mutual fund cash is close to all-time lows, and the big spec long interest on the S&P500 futures is the highest in history. A strong reversal up in the USD against all currencies hit the PMs hard - taking out $1440 in gold will argue for a retest of the April 16 lows. Another CRACK appeared in one of our favorite "wall of worry" indicators, the Wall Street Sentiment Survey, which swung to a very complacent (47% bullish 6% bearish) reading on May 3 from the reading on April 26 (33% bullish 50% bearish) - a lot of "bears" appear to have been converted to the "bullish camp" after Friday's NFP jobs report - this implies a steeper correction after we reach the New Moon/solar eclipse on May 9-10 than what we saw in April. Crude oil is also being pulled up into the New Moon - looking to buy oils stocks on dips. The bonds looked weak on today's sell off in stocks - we could be setting up for a big decline in this market. The DX reversed up strong against all currencies today and hit the precious metals hard.

 

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX made a new rally high of 1597.57 on the last day of April. After a quick 3-wave correction on the hourly chart, we powered above 1600 on Friday, May 3. We think that after a quick correction on May 7 that the SPX will attack targets around 1650 by the New Moon on Friday.

   

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – The COTs report for gold released Friday are showing a very bullish structure that imply a major low has been made - this is inconsistent with a retest of the lows in the near term.

 

• Stocks – The ES reversed down impulsively today - looking to sell a corrective bounce into Friday.
• Gold – Gold got clobbered on a reversal up in the USD - breaking $1440 will send us on a retest of the April 16 lows.
• Silver – Silver also reversed down on the back of a strong USD.
• Bonds – Bonds are bouncing in an EW a-b-c correction after 5-waves down on the hourly but the action was weak during a stock market selloff.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil is correcting sideways on the hourly chart despite the strong reversal up in the USD.
• Dollar Index – The DX reversed up hard against the Yen and all major currencies - looking for a test of 83.325.

TURNING POINT DAY:

We have two turn windows for this week - Tuesday, May 7 (the 21-Day Fibonacci step out from the April 16 Flash Crash Low) and the New Moon/solar eclipse (Friday, May 10) - we expect volatility around these dates and potentially a short-term peak.

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

WEEKLY COMMENTS: The junior PM sector was a WASTELAND in 2012 and the metal of PM junior investors has been sorely tested in the past year ….. BUT …. as Deep Contrarian Investors we will continue to hold our PM juniors (the Hulbert sentiment readings from PM newsletter writers are giving a Major Contrarian Buy Signal in December 2012) but we will not add anymore until the 50 day MA crosses decisively up through the 200 day MA on the CDNX chart. It may take gold to make a daily close above $1800 to catalyze this sector.

• NEW PICK – Aroway Energy (ARW.V, C$0.340 -.01) – This western Canadian junior is part of a very sweet JV deal with a private partner in the Peace River basin – it's production share should climb from 669 BOE/day (75% black oil) to over 1200 BOE/day later in 2012 – management has selected a good slate of properties for drilling and it is bearing fruit. Buy on dips. Use a 20% stop from purchase price.
• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.080 -.005) A world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $1.72 +.16) - The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
• Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.150 -.005) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013.
• Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.109 +.00) – John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.0350 -.0039) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced. Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.