All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer – May 24, 2012

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

5/24/12 (Commentary for Thursday). Gold and the ES gave us retests of recent lows but we are still waiting on a follow through day rally to confirm a longer bounce into June. The PMs were pulled up by the resilient gold stocks (HUI) which has showed great relative strength against gold and the SPX. The corrective action in April and May has set the stage for a 5^th wave rally off the 10/4 low for the ES and QQQ – we're expecting at least an oversold bounce into June. The junior miners ($CDNX) are still in capitulation mode but the daily and hourly charts show completed EW 5-wave down patterns from 3/11 and 5/1/12 respectively and that implies some kind of bounce – so far, however, the lack of a strong reversal up in the junior resource companies is intermediate-term bearish for the sector which may need more time to form a low. Bonds may be close to finishing an EW a-b-c correction on the hourly chart. IMPORTANT NOTE: Our favorite contrarian sentiment gage (wall of worry indicator), the Wall Street Sentiment Survey, swung back to a NEUTRAL reading with a jump from 20% BEARS recorded on 5/11 to 44% BEARS reported on 5/18.

Big Picture on Stocks – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that is now testing the highs of 2011. The forces of monetary relation via the stealth QE3 from the US Fed and the LTRO facility in Europe are levitating markets in the short term and overriding the forces of economic contraction being seen around the globe – AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF 2012. A 5^th wave capitulation down by 5/18-5/21 should end the current correction and lead to a rally into at least mid-June.

Big Picture on PMs – The daily chart of gold appears to have finished the Wave C of a large EW a-b-c corrective pattern from the September high on 12/29. Gold made a major low at $1525 as the 12-wk cycle low bottomed in the 12/29-12/30 turn window. Gold tested $1526 and reversed up impulsively – we may have confirmed the 36-wk cycle low – a rally up into mid-June is due – the PMs are trying to lead the market up.

• Stocks – The ES is coiling for a big move up. The McClellan Oscillator is doing another extended streak of negative days. Need to see a follow through day to the upside by Tuesday.
• Gold –The HUI is pulling the PM sector up here – looking for a follow through rally day by Tuesday to confirm a low.
• Silver – Silver got pulled up alongside gold – looking for a follow through rally day by Tuesday.
• Bonds – Bonds are close to finishing an EW a-b-c correction on the hourly chart – new highs should be close by.
• Crude oil – Oil looks like its winding up for a big move on the hourly chart – looking for a pop by Tuesday.
• Dollar index – The DX is taking out a key look to the left on daily – .90 is still our target by fall.

   

TURNING POINT DAY:     

The 5/21-5/22 turn window should give us a capitulation low in several markets – reversals up into mid-June are expected. The partial solar eclipse on 5/20 should give us a spirited reversal early this week.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

WEEKLY COMMENTS: The junior PM sector has been a WASTELAND and the metal of PM junior investors has been sorely tested in the past few weeks ….. BUT …. as Deep Contrarian Investors we will continue to hold our PM juniors (the Hulbert sentiment readings from PM newsletter writers are giving a Major Contrarian Buy Signal) but we will not add anymore until the 50 day MA crosses decisively up through the 200 day MA on the CDNX chart – this may coincide with a "formal QE3 announcement" from the Fed in June.

 

• NEW PICK - Aroway Energy (ARW.V, C$0.57 +.04) – This western Canadian junior is part of a very sweet JV deal with a private partner in the Peace River basin – it's production share should climb from 669 BOE/day (75% black oil) to over 1200 BOE/day later in 2012 – management has selected a good slate of properties for drilling and it is bearing fruit.  Buy on dips. Use a 20% stop from purchase price.
• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.27 +.00) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy he5re. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all. 
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.23 -.02) - The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favorin5 the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.345 +.00) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.223 -.0024)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.130 -.00) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – May 23, 2012

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

5/23/12 (Commentary for Wednesday). Gold and the ES gave us retests of recent lows and reversed up late – our follow through rallies may have started late today. We're looking for the ES and gold to rally into the holiday weekend. The PMs were pulled up by the resilient gold stocks (HUI) which finished a bullish "Rising B-Wave" pattern close to mid-day and reversed higher sharply outperforming the metals. The corrective action in April and May has set the stage for a 5^th wave rally off the 10/4 low for the ES and QQQ. The junior miners ($CDNX) are still in capitulation mode but the daily and hourly charts show completed EW 5-wave down patterns from 3/11 and 5/1/12 respectively and that implies some kind of bounce – so far, however, the lack of a strong reversal up in the junior resource companies is intermediate-term bearish for the sector which may need more time to form a low. Bonds look toppy in the short term – implies a window for stocks to rally. IMPORTANT NOTE: Our favorite contrarian sentiment gage (wall of worry indicator), the Wall Street Sentiment Survey, swung back to a NEUTRAL reading with a jump from 20% BEARS recorded on 5/11 to 44% BEARS reported on 5/18.

Big Picture on Stocks – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that is now testing the highs of 2011. The forces of monetary relation via the stealth QE3 from the US Fed and the LTRO facility in Europe are levitating markets in the short term and overriding the forces of economic contraction being seen around the globe – AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF 2012. A 5^th wave capitulation down by 5/18-5/21 should end the current correction and lead to a rally into at least mid-June but there is still a chance of a Big Barf by 5/22.

Big Picture on PMs – The daily chart of gold appears to have finished the Wave C of a large EW a-b-c corrective pattern from the September high on 12/29. Gold made a major low at $1525 as the 12-wk cycle low bottomed in the 12/29-12/30 turn window. Gold tested $1526 and reversed up impulsively – we may have confirmed the 36-wk cycle low – a rally up into mid-June is due – the PMs are trying to lead the market up.

• Stocks – The ES retested Monday's early lows and reversed up – we may be seeing a follow through rally to confirm a low. News from Europe may be a positive catalyst overnight. Looking for a rally into the weekend.
• Gold –Gold retested last Thursday's lows and reversed up with the HUI bullishly leading the way – looking for a follow through rally day tomorrow to confirm a low.
• Silver – Silver retested recent lows and reversed higher – looking for a follow through rally day tomorrow.
• Bonds – Bonds made a B-Wave test of recent highs – looking for a C-Wave pullback.
• Crude oil – Oil took out Sunday's lows in a 5^th wave – looking for a strong reversal up.
• Dollar index – The DX is taking out a key look to the left on daily – .90 is still our target by fall.

   

TURNING POINT DAY:     

The 5/21-5/22 turn window should give us a capitulation low in several markets – reversals up into mid-June are expected. The partial solar eclipse on 5/20 should give us a spirited reversal early this week.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

WEEKLY COMMENTS: The junior PM sector has been a WASTELAND and the metal of PM junior investors has been sorely tested in the past few weeks ….. BUT …. as Deep Contrarian Investors we will continue to hold our PM juniors (the Hulbert sentiment readings from PM newsletter writers are giving a Major Contrarian Buy Signal) but we will not add anymore until the 50 day MA crosses decisively up through the 200 day MA on the CDNX chart – this may coincide with a "formal QE3 announcement" from the Fed in June.

 

• NEW PICK - Aroway Energy (ARW.V, C$0.56 -.04) – This western Canadian junior is part of a very sweet JV deal with a private partner in the Peace River basin – it's production share should climb from 669 BOE/day (75% black oil) to over 1200 BOE/day later in 2012 – management has selected a good slate of properties for drilling and it is bearing fruit.  Buy on dips. Use a 20% stop from purchase price.
• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.27 +.015) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy he5re. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all. 
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.25 +.02) - The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favorin5 the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.345 +.00) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.247 +.0045)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.130 -.007) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – My 22, 2012

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

5/22/12 (Commentary for Tuesday). The ES and gold need a follow through rally to the upside to validate a rally into June. The PMs spent most of the day tracing out a 4^th wave correction on the hourly – looking for a reversal up Wednesday – TAKING OUT $1526 would imply more down for gold and the ES. It appears that the ES is tracing out a wave 2 correction on the hourly from the early Monday low – looking for a rally into June. The corrective action in April and May may have just set the stage for a 5^th wave rally off the 10/4 low. The junior miners ($CDNX) are still in capitulation mode but the daily and hourly charts show completed EW 5-wave down patterns from 3/11 and 5/1/12 respectively and that implies a big reversal up soon. Bonds look toppy in the short term – implies a window for stocks to rally. IMPORTANT NOTE: Our favorite contrarian sentiment gage (wall of worry indicator), the Wall Street Sentiment Survey, swung back to a NEUTRAL reading with a jump from 20% BEARS recorded on 5/11 to 44% BEARS reported on 5/18.

Big Picture on Stocks – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that is now testing the highs of 2011. The forces of monetary relation via the stealth QE3 from the US Fed and the LTRO facility in Europe are levitating markets in the short term and overriding the forces of economic contraction being seen acround the globe – AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF 2012. A 5^th wave capitulation down by 5/18-5/21 should end the current correction and lead to a rally into at least mid-June but there is still a chance of a Big Barf by 5/22.

Big Picture on PMs – The daily chart of gold appears to have finished the Wave C of a large EW a-b-c corrective pattern from the September high on 12/29. Gold made a major low at $1525 as the 12-wk cycle low bottomed in the 12/29-12/30 turn window. Gold tested $1526 and reversed up impulsively – we may have confirmed the 36-wk cycle low – a rally up into mid-June is due – the PMs are trying to lead the market up.

• Stocks – The ES rallied in 5-waves from the early Monday low – we are now tracing out a 3-wave correction – need a follow through day up to confirm a low. We believe that this market has a DNA close to the market in the spring of 1987 which bottomed a 4^th wave around 5/22/87 before a 20% rally into August.
• Gold –Gold is also correcting the advance from Thursday. The 36-wk cycle low bottomed – we need to see a follow through day up to confirm.
• Silver – Silver is also correcting – need a follow through day up.
• Bonds – Bonds look toppy in the short term – a window for stocks to rally.
• Crude oil – Oil is testing lows overnight Sunday lows – we need a reversal day up to confirm a short-term low.
• Dollar index – The DX is taking out a key look to the left on daily – .90 is still our target by fall.

   

TURNING POINT DAY:     

The 5/21-5/22 turn window should give us a capitulation low in several markets – reversals up into mid-June are expected. The partial solar eclipse on 5/20 should give us a spirited reversal early this week.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

WEEKLY COMMENTS: The junior PM sector has been a WASTELAND and the metal of PM junior investors has been sorely tested in the past few weeks ….. BUT …. as Deep Contrarian Investors we will continue to hold our PM juniors (the Hulbert sentiment readings from PM newsletter writers are giving a Major Contrarian Buy Signal) but we will not add anymore until the 50 day MA crosses decisively up through the 200 day MA on the CDNX chart – this may coincide with a "formal QE3 announcement" from the Fed in June.

 

• NEW PICK - Aroway Energy (ARW.V, C$0.56 -.04) – This western Canadian junior is part of a very sweet JV deal with a private partner in the Peace River basin – it's production share should climb from 669 BOE/day (75% black oil) to over 1200 BOE/day later in 2012 – management has selected a good slate of properties for drilling and it is bearing fruit.  Buy on dips. Use a 20% stop from purchase price.
• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.255 +.005) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy he5re. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all. 
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.23 -.04) - The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favorin5 the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.345 +.01) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.2425 +.0085)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.137 +.004) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – May 21, 2012

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

5/21/12 (Commentary for Monday). The ES bottomed in the pre-market and AAPL led the market's advance – looking to buy dips for a rally into June. Oil paced the advance by rallying off its overnight lows. The PMs spent most of the day tracing out a 4^th wave correction on the hourly – looking for a reversal up tomorrow. It appears that the US markets found a low in the pre-market – looking for a rally into June. The corrective action in April and May was just setting the stage for a 5^th wave rally off the 10/4 low. The junior miners ($CDNX) are still in capitulation mode but the daily and hourly charts show completed EW 5-wave down patterns from 3/11 and 5/1/12 respectively and that implies a big reversal up soon. Bonds failed to confirm the early low in stocks by remaining below Friday's high . IMPORTANT NOTE: Our favorite contrarian sentiment gage (wall of worry indicator), the Wall Street Sentiment Survey, swung back to a NEUTRAL reading with a jump from 20% BEARS recorded on 5/11 to 44% BEARS reported on 5/18.

Big Picture on Stocks – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that is now testing the highs of 2011. The forces of monetary relation via the stealth QE3 from the US Fed and the LTRO facility in Europe are levitating markets in the short term and overriding the forces of economic contraction being seen acround the globe – AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF 2012. A 5^th wave capitulation down by 5/18-5/21 should end the current correction and lead to a rally into at least mid-June but there is still a chance of a Big Barf by 5/22.

Big Picture on PMs – The daily chart of gold appears to have finished the Wave C of a large EW a-b-c corrective pattern from the September high on 12/29. Gold made a major low at $1525 as the 12-wk cycle low bottomed in the 12/29-12/30 turn window. Gold tested $1526 and reversed up impulsively – we may have confirmed the 36-wk cycle low – a rally up into mid-June is due – the PMs are trying to lead the market up.

• Stocks – The ES finished its decline in the premarket – we rallied from the start with tech and oil leading the way – looking to buy a pullback. We need to see strong impulsive rally action by 5/22 to confirm a low. We believe that this market has a DNA close to the market in the spring of 1987 which bottomed a 4^th wave around 5/22/87 before a 20% rally into August.
• Gold –Gold is working on 5-wave impulsive rally off of Thursday's low. We reversed up impulsively with confirming signals on the gold/silver ratio and the PSVL last Thursday. The 36-wk cycle low bottomed - looking for a strong rally to start by Tuesday after the solar eclipse.
• Silver – Silver is rallying impulsively on the hourly chart – looking for a fierce rally to start by 5/22.
• Bonds – Bonds did not confirm the overnight low in the ES – an early sign of the stock market rally today.
• Crude oil – Oil is working on an impulse wave off the Sunday night low – looking for a 5^th wave up tomorrow on the hourly.
• Dollar index – The DX is bouncing correctively – looking for another leg down on the hourly.

   

TURNING POINT DAY:     

The 5/21-5/22 turn window should give us a capitulation low in several markets – reversals up into mid-June are expected. The partial solar eclipse on 5/20 should give us a spirited reversal early this week.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

WEEKLY COMMENTS: The junior PM sector has been a WASTELAND and the metal of PM junior investors has been sorely tested in the past few weeks ….. BUT …. as Deep Contrarian Investors we will continue to hold our PM juniors (the Hulbert sentiment readings from PM newsletter writers are giving a Major Contrarian Buy Signal) but we will not add anymore until the 50 day MA crosses decisively up through the 200 day MA on the CDNX chart – this may coincide with a "formal QE3 announcement" from the Fed in June.

 

• NEW PICK - Aroway Energy (ARW.V, C$0.60 -.01) – This western Canadian junior is part of a very sweet JV deal with a private partner in the Peace River basin – it's production share should climb from 669 BOE/day (75% black oil) to over 1200 BOE/day later in 2012 – management has selected a good slate of properties for drilling and it is bearing fruit.  Buy on dips. Use a 20% stop from purchase price.
• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.25 +.025) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy he5re. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all. 
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.27 +.04) - The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favorin5 the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.335 -.005) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.234 -.012)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.133 +.008) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly JDV Market Timer – May 20, 2012

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

5/20/12 (Commentary for Sunday). The ES continued to liquidate going into the close of trading Friday with an extreme McClellan Oscillator reading of -339 but with fewer new 52-wk lows than Thursday – we're close to a big reversal up. The PM sector led the market down in this correction and its reversal up says that the broad market is close to a low. Our bias is that the US markets will find a low by 5/21 and then rally into summer and that the corrective action in April and May was just setting the stage for a 5^th wave rally off the 10/4 low. The junior miners ($CDNX) are still in capitulation mode but the daily and hourly charts show completed EW 5-wave down patterns from 3/11 and 5/1/12 respectively and that implies a big reversal up soon. Crude oil may have bottomed a 5^th wave down on the hourly overnight Sunday. IMPORTANT NOTE: Our favorite contrarian sentiment gage (wall of worry indicator), the Wall Street Sentiment Survey, swung back to BEARISH reading with only 20% BEARS recorded on 5/11 – a large swing higher in BEARS on 5/18 to over 50% is needed to turn this indicator back to BULLISH.

Big Picture on Stocks – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that is now testing the highs of 2011. The forces of monetary relation via the stealth QE3 from the US Fed and the LTRO facility in Europe are levitating markets in the short term and overriding the forces of economic contraction being seen acround the globe – AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF 2012. A 5^th wave capitulation down by 5/18-5/21 should end the current correction and lead to a rally into at least mid-June but there is still a chance of a Big Barf by 5/22.

Big Picture on PMs – The daily chart of gold appears to have finished the Wave C of a large EW a-b-c corrective pattern from the September high on 12/29. Gold made a major low at $1525 as the 12-wk cycle low bottomed in the 12/29-12/30 turn window. Gold tested $1526 and reversed up impulsively – we may have confirmed the 36-wk cycle low – a rally up into mid-June is due – the PMs are trying to lead the market up.

• Stocks – The ES continued to sub-divide down today but the McClellan Oscillator is at an extreme level (-339) – looking for a low tomorrow. We need to see strong impulsive rally action by 5/22 to confirm a low. We believe that this market has a DNA close to the market in the spring of 1987 which bottomed a 4^th wave around 5/22/87 before a 20% rally into August.
• Gold –Gold held $1526 and reversed up impulsively with confirming signals on the gold/silver ratio and the PSVL yesterday. The 36-wk cycle low bottomed - looking for a strong rally to start by Monday after the solar eclipse. Closing below $1525 would be bearish for the general market.
• Silver – Silver is rallying impulsively on the hourly chart – looking for a fierce rally to start by 5/22 .
• Bonds – Bonds may be finishing a 4^th wave correction on the hourly overnight Sunday – looking for a 5h wave higher going into Monday.
• Crude oil – Oil may have finished 5-waves down on the hourly in overnight Sunday trading – we are rallying impulsively off a low.
• Dollar index – The DX declined in 5-waves on the 5-min chart and rallied in 3-waves – looking for another leg down.

   

TURNING POINT DAY:     

The 5/21-5/22 turn window should give us a capitulation low in several markets – reversals up into mid-June are expected. The partial solar eclipse on 5/20 should give us a spirited reversal early this week.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

WEEKLY COMMENTS: The junior PM sector has been a WASTELAND and the metal of PM junior investors has been sorely tested in the past few weeks ….. BUT …. as Deep Contrarian Investors we will continue to hold our PM juniors (the Hulbert sentiment readings from PM newsletter writers are giving a Major Contrarian Buy Signal) but we will not add anymore until the 50 day MA crosses decisively up through the 200 day MA on the CDNX chart – this may coincide with a "formal QE3 announcement" from the Fed in June.

 

• NEW PICK - Aroway Energy (ARW.V, C$0.60 -.01) – This western Canadian junior is part of a very sweet JV deal with a private partner in the Peace River basin – it's production share should climb from 669 BOE/day (75% black oil) to over 1200 BOE/day later in 2012 – management has selected a good slate of properties for drilling and it is bearing fruit.  Buy on dips. Use a 20% stop from purchase price.
• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.25 +.025) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy he5re. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all. 
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.23 -.00) - The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favorin5 the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.335 -.005) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.246 +.002)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.125 -.01) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – May 17, 2012

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

5/17/12 (Commentary for Thursday). Gold and the HUI rallied hard as the ES continued to crater. The PM sector led the market down in this correction and its reversal up says that the broad market is close to a low. The Mc McClellan Oscillator (-310) is at an extreme oversold level – we are looking for a low and reversal up in the ES as early as tomorrow and no later than 5/21 the day after the solar eclipse. AAPL continues to be hit by selling waves – it appears that investors are selling AAPL holdings in order to buy Facebook in the aftermarket tomorrow – a good buying opportunity may emerge in AAPL soon. Gold breaking $1525 on a closing basis could see a general market rout similar to what has been seen in the gold stocks since 2/2. Our bias is that the US markets will find a low by 5/22 and then rally into summer and that the corrective action in April and May was just setting the stage for a 5^th wave rally off the 10/4 low. The junior miners ($CDNX) are still in capitulation mode but the daily and hourly charts show completed EW 5-wave down patterns from 3/11 and 5/1/12 respectively and that implies a big reversal up soon. Crude oil started a 5^th wave down on the hourly chart that should bottom soon. IMPORTANT NOTE: Our favorite contrarian sentiment gage (wall of worry indicator), the Wall Street Sentiment Survey, swung to a bullish reading (BEARS at 20% as of 5/11 compared to 55% on 5/05) - this is an EXCELLENT CONTRARIAN INDICATOR – now back to BEARISH.

Big Picture on Stocks – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that is now testing the highs of 2011. The forces of monetary relation via the stealth QE3 from the US Fed and the LTRO facility in Europe are levitating markets in the short term and overriding the forces of economic contraction being seen around the globe – AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF 2012. A 5^th wave capitulation down by 5/18-5/21 should end the current correction and lead to a rally into at least mid-June but there is still a chance of a Big Barf by 5/22.

Big Picture on PMs – The daily chart of gold appears to have finished the Wave C of a large EW a-b-c corrective pattern from the September high on 12/29. Gold made a major low at $1525 as the 12-wk cycle low bottomed in the 12/29-12/30 turn window. Gold tested $1526 and reversed up impulsively – we may have confirmed the 36-wk cycle low – a rally up into mid-June is due – the PMs are trying to lead the market up.

• Stocks – The ES continued to sub-divide down today but the McClellan Oscillator is at an extreme level (-310) – looking for a low tomorrow. We need to see strong impulsive rally action by 5/22 to confirm a low. We believe that this market has a DNA close to the market in the spring of 1987 which bottomed a 4^th wave around 5/22/87 before a 20% rally into August.
• Gold –Gold held $1526 and reversed up impulsively with confirming signals on the gold/silver ratio and the PSVL yesterday. The 36-wk cycle low may have bottomed -looking for a strong rally to start by Monday after the solar eclipse. Closing below $1525 would be bearish for the general market.
• Silver – Silver should tested $26 and reversed up – need to see impulsive rally action for confirmation.
• Bonds – Bonds are sub-dividing up on the hourly – needs another leg up tomorrow to finish a 5-wave pattern.
• Crude oil – Oil has not finished finished a 5-wave down pattern on the hourly – we should bottom by Monday after the solar eclipse.
• Dollar index – The DX is rallying in a 5^th wave on the hourly but there is bearish divergence on the momentum oscillators.

   

TURNING POINT DAY:     

The 5/18-5/21 turn window should give us a capitulation low in several markets – reversals up into mid-June are expected.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

WEEKLY COMMENTS: The junior PM sector has been a WASTELAND and the metal of PM junior investors has been sorely tested in the past few weeks ….. BUT …. as Deep Contrarian Investors we will continue to hold our PM juniors (the Hulbert sentiment readings from PM newsletter writers are giving a Major Contrarian Buy Signal) but we will not add anymore until the 50 day MA crosses decisively up through the 200 day MA on the CDNX chart – this may coincide with a "formal QE3 announcement" from the Fed in April.

 

• NEW PICK - Aroway Energy (ARW.V, C$0.61 +.01) – This western Canadian junior is part of a very sweet JV deal with a private partner in the Peace River basin – it's production share should climb from 669 BOE/day (75% black oil) to over 1200 BOE/day later in 2012 – management has selected a good slate of properties for drilling and it is bearing fruit.  Buy on dips. Use a 20% stop from purchase price.
• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.225 +.015) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy he5re. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all. 
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.23 -.02) - The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favorin5 the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.340 -.02) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.244 +.006)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.137 +.017) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – May 16, 2012

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

5/16/12 (Commentary for Wednesday). Gold held $1526 this morning and reversed up in 5-waves on the 5-min charts as the gold/silver ratio spiked a candle entirely above the upper Bollinger Band and the premium on PSLV < 3% - A TRADING LOW MAY BE IN. We need to see confirmation Thursday with strong impulsive rally action. Gold breaking $1525 on a closing basis could see a general market rout similar to what has been seen in the gold stocks since 2/2. Our bias is that the US markets will find a low by 5/22 and then rally into summer and that the corrective action in April and May was just setting the stage for a 5^th wave rally off the 10/4 low. The junior miners ($CDNX) are still in capitulation mode but the daily and hourly charts show completed EW 5-wave down patterns from 3/11 and 5/1/12 respectively and that implies a big reversal up soon. Crude oil started a 5^th wave down on the hourly chart that should bottom soon. IMPORTANT NOTE: Our favorite contrarian sentiment gage (wall of worry indicator), the Wall Street Sentiment Survey, swung to a bullish reading (BEARS at 20% as of 5/11 compared to 55% on 5/05) - this is an EXCELLENT CONTRARIAN INDICATOR – now back to BEARISH.

Big Picture on Stocks – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that is now testing the highs of 2011. The forces of monetary relation via the stealth QE3 from the US Fed and the LTRO facility in Europe are levitating markets in the short term and overriding the forces of economic contraction being seen around the globe – AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF 2012. A 5^th wave capitulation down by 5/16 should end the current correction and lead to a rally into at least mid-June but there is a chance of a Big Barf by 5/22 that needs to be considered.

Big Picture on PMs – The daily chart of gold appears to have finished the Wave C of a large EW a-b-c corrective pattern from the September high on 12/29. Gold made a major low at $1525 as the 12-wk cycle low bottomed in the 12/29-12/30 turn window. Gold has not confirmed the bottoming of a 36-wk cycle low as previously thought but the current liquidation could yield a selling climax by mid-May. Gold needs a 5^th wave down to test $1526 and end this correction – looking for a big reversal up by 5/16.

• Stocks – The ES may have bottomed a 5^th wave down on the hourly today – need to see strong impulsive rally action Thursday to confirm or failing that a lower low into 5/21-5/22 is possible.
• Gold –Gold held $1526 and reversed up today with confirming signals on the gold/silver ratio and the PSVL. The 36-wk cycle low may have bottomed today – we need impulsive rally action for confirmation. Closing below $1525 would be bearish for the general market.
• Silver – Silver should tested $26 and reversed up – need to see impulsive rally action for confirmation.
• Bonds – Bonds may have finished 5-waves up on the hourly chart.
• Crude oil – Oil may have finished a 5-wave down pattern on the hourly. If gold fails to hold $1526 we could see lower prices into 5/22.
• Dollar index – The DX appears to be pulling back correctively on the hourly chart.

   

TURNING POINT DAY:     

The 5/14-5/15 turn window should give us a capitulation low in several markets – reversals up into mid-June are expected.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

WEEKLY COMMENTS: The junior PM sector has been a WASTELAND and the metal of PM junior investors has been sorely tested in the past few weeks ….. BUT …. as Deep Contrarian Investors we will continue to hold our PM juniors (the Hulbert sentiment readings from PM newsletter writers are giving a Major Contrarian Buy Signal) but we will not add anymore until the 50 day MA crosses decisively up through the 200 day MA on the CDNX chart – this may coincide with a "formal QE3 announcement" from the Fed in April.

 

• NEW PICK - Aroway Energy (ARW.V, C$0.60 +.01) – This western Canadian junior is part of a very sweet JV deal with a private partner in the Peace River basin – it's production share should climb from 669 BOE/day (75% black oil) to over 1200 BOE/day later in 2012 – management has selected a good slate of properties for drilling and it is bearing fruit.  Buy on dips. Use a 20% stop from purchase price.
• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.21 -.00) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy he5re. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all. 
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.25 -.20) - The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favorin5 the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.360 +.00) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.238 +.005)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.120 -.01) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – May 15, 2012

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

5/15/12 (Commentary for Tuesday). The broad market has the potential for a Big Barf between now and 5/22 – if gold positively tests $1526 and reverses up Wednesday, the broad market should rally hard but failing that we may continue a capitulation into the 5/21-5/22 period after the solar eclipse. We want to see two things to indicate a major low tomorrow in gold: (1) A spike in the gold/silver ratio above the upper Bollinger Band and (2) an intraday premium on the Sprott Silver Trust (PSLV) between 2-3%. Gold breaking $1525 on a closing basis could see a general market rout similar to what has been seen in the gold stocks since 2/2. Our bias is that the US markets will find a low by 5/22 and then rally into summer and that the corrective action in April and May was just setting the stage for a 5^th wave rally off the 10/4 low. The junior miners ($CDNX) are still in capitulation mode but the daily and hourly charts show completed EW 5-wave down patterns from 3/11 and 5/1/12 respectively and that implies a big reversal up soon. Crude oil started a 5^th wave down on the hourly chart that should bottom soon. IMPORTANT NOTE: Our favorite contrarian sentiment gage (wall of worry indicator), the Wall Street Sentiment Survey, swung to a bullish reading (BEARS at 20% as of 5/11 compared to 55% on 5/05) - this is an EXCELLENT CONTRARIAN INDICATOR – now back to BEARISH.

Big Picture on Stocks – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that is now testing the highs of 2011. The forces of monetary relation via the stealth QE3 from the US Fed and the LTRO facility in Europe are levitating markets in the short term and overriding the forces of economic contraction being seen around the globe – AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF 2012. A 5^th wave capitulation down by 5/16 should end the current correction and lead to a rally into at least mid-June but there is a chance of a Big Barf by 5/22 that needs to be considered.

Big Picture on PMs – The daily chart of gold appears to have finished the Wave C of a large EW a-b-c corrective pattern from the September high on 12/29. Gold made a major low at $1525 as the 12-wk cycle low bottomed in the 12/29-12/30 turn window. Gold has not confirmed the bottoming of a 36-wk cycle low as previously thought but the current liquidation could yield a selling climax by mid-May. Gold needs a 5^th wave down to test $1526 and end this correction – looking for a big reversal up by 5/16.

• Stocks – The ES continues to grind down without a reversal – looking for a 5^th wave down into the 5/15-5/16 time window to bottom a 4^th wave correction on the daily chart before a rally into June – however, there is a chance for a Big Barf between now and 5/22 and that probability has increased with the complacency seen during this decline and a low VIX (~22)
• Gold –Ideally, we should hold $1526 tomorrow before a big reversal up. The 36-wk cycle low should bottom by 5/16. Closing below $1525 would be bearish for the general market.
• Silver – Silver should test $26 by tomorrow before a reversal up.
• Bonds – Bonds look on track to make new highs and make lower lows on the 30-yr bond rate.
• Crude oil – Oil started a 5^th wave down on the hourly that should bottom by 5/16. If gold fails to hold $1526 we could see lower prices into 5/22.
• Dollar index – The DX appears to want to sub-divide higher on the hourly chart. Our target of .90 may come sooner than we considered.

   

TURNING POINT DAY:     

The 5/14-5/15 turn window should give us a capitulation low in several markets – reversals up into mid-June are expected.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

WEEKLY COMMENTS: The junior PM sector has been a WASTELAND and the metal of PM junior investors has been sorely tested in the past few weeks ….. BUT …. as Deep Contrarian Investors we will continue to hold our PM juniors (the Hulbert sentiment readings from PM newsletter writers are giving a Major Contrarian Buy Signal) but we will not add anymore until the 50 day MA crosses decisively up through the 200 day MA on the CDNX chart – this may coincide with a "formal QE3 announcement" from the Fed in April.

 

• NEW PICK - Aroway Energy (ARW.V, C$0.59 -.02) – This western Canadian junior is part of a very sweet JV deal with a private partner in the Peace River basin – it's production share should climb from 669 BOE/day (75% black oil) to over 1200 BOE/day later in 2012 – management has selected a good slate of properties for drilling and it is bearing fruit.  Buy on dips. Use a 20% stop from purchase price.
• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.195 -.00) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy he5re. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all. 
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.45 -.05) - The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favorin5 the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.360 +.005) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.233 -.004)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.1300 -.0068) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – May 14, 2012

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

5/14/12 (Commentary for Monday). Gold and the ES keep grinding down through support without getting a capitulation or meaningful bounce. Gold is the barometer of the risk markets here and a successful test of the $1526 level would reverse up the ES as well – this key support area may be in play Tuesday and if we fail to reverse impulsively off it we may continue to decline into the solar eclipse time window on 5/20. Breaking $1525 on a closing basis could see a general market rout similar to what has been seen in the gold stocks since 2/2. Our bias is that the US markets will find a low by 5/22 and then rally into summer and that the corrective action in April and May is just setting the stage for a 5^th wave rally off the 10/4 low. The junior miners ($CDNX) are still in capitulation mode but the daily and hourly charts show completed EW 5-wave down patterns from 3/11 and 5/1/12 respectively and that implies a big reversal up soon. Crude oil started a 5^th wave down on the hourly chart that should bottom early this week. We want to see two things to indicate a major low in the PMs early next week: (1) A spike in the gold/silver ratio above the upper Bollinger Band and (2) an intraday premium on the Sprott Silver Trust (PSLV) between 2-3%. IMPORTANT NOTE: Our favorite contrarian sentiment gage (wall of worry indicator), the Wall Street Sentiment Survey, swung to a bullish reading (BEARS at 20% as of 5/11 compared to 55% on 5/05) - this is an EXCELLENT CONTRARIAN INDICATOR – now back to BEARISH.

Big Picture on Stocks – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that is now testing the highs of 2011. The forces of monetary relation via the stealth QE3 from the US Fed and the LTRO facility in Europe are levitating markets in the short term and overriding the forces of economic contraction being seen around the globe – AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF 2012. A 5^th wave capitulation down by 5/16 should end the current correction and lead to a rally into at least mid-June.

Big Picture on PMs – The daily chart of gold appears to have finished the Wave C of a large EW a-b-c corrective pattern from the September high on 12/29. Gold made a major low at $1525 as the 12-wk cycle low bottomed in the 12/29-12/30 turn window. Gold has not confirmed the bottoming of a 36-wk cycle low as previously thought but the current liquidation could yield a selling climax by mid-May. Gold needs a 5^th wave down to test $1526 and end this correction – looking for a big reversal up by 5/16.

• Stocks – The ES continues to grind down without a reversal – looking for a 5^th wave down into the 5/14-5/15 time window to bottom a 4^th wave correction on the daily chart before a rally into June.
• Gold –Ideally, we should hold $1525 before a big reversal up. The 36-wk cycle low should bottom by 5/15. Closing below $1525 would be bearish for the general market.
• Silver – Silver should test $26 by 5/15 before a reversal up.
• Bonds – Bonds look on track to make new highs and make lower lows on the 30-yr bond rate.
• Crude oil – Oil started a 5^th wave down on the hourly that should bottom by 5/15.
• Dollar index – The DX appears to want to sub-divide higher on the hourly chart. Our target of .90 appears to be farther off in time – perhaps in Q3 of 2012 as the next stage of the European debt crisis rears its head.

   

TURNING POINT DAY:     

The 5/14-5/15 turn window should give us a capitulation low in several markets – reversals up into mid-June are expected.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

WEEKLY COMMENTS: The junior PM sector has been a WASTELAND and the metal of PM junior investors has been sorely tested in the past few weeks ….. BUT …. as Deep Contrarian Investors we will continue to hold our PM juniors (the Hulbert sentiment readings from PM newsletter writers are giving a Major Contrarian Buy Signal) but we will not add anymore until the 50 day MA crosses decisively up through the 200 day MA on the CDNX chart – this may coincide with a "formal QE3 announcement" from the Fed in April.

 

• NEW PICK - Aroway Energy (ARW.V, C$0.61 -.04) – This western Canadian junior is part of a very sweet JV deal with a private partner in the Peace River basin – it's production share should climb from 669 BOE/day (75% black oil) to over 1200 BOE/day later in 2012 – management has selected a good slate of properties for drilling and it is bearing fruit.  Buy on dips. Use a 20% stop from purchase price.
• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.195 -.03) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy he5re. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all. 
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.50 -.02) - The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favorin5 the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.355 -.010) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.237 -.0355)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.1368 +.0018) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly JDV Market Timer – May 12, 2012

Depression Beater Portfolio: - see below for new updates on Junior Miner Favorites - (This portfolio is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

   

5/12/12 (Commentary for Sunday). The corrective bounce in gold from the $1571 low argues for more decline going into the 5/14-5/15 turn window for the ES and gold. Gold is the barometer of the risk markets here and a successful test of the $1526 level would reverse up the ES as well. We should see a final wave down into early next week that should bottom the stock market correction and lead to a rally into mid-June. For gold, we should test $1525-$1530 in a 5^th wave down going into 5/14-5/15 before a big rally into mid-June. The best thing for gold is to drop a quick $75 and hold the 12/29 lows – breaking $1525 on a closing basis could see a rout similar to what has been seen in the gold stocks since 2/2. Our bias is that the US markets will rally into July before rolling over and that the corrective action in April and May is just setting the stage for a 5^th wave rally off the 10/4 low. The junior miners ($CDNX) are in a capitulation sell off but the daily chart does show a close to completed EW 5-wave down pattern from 3/11 and that implies a big reversal up soon . Crude oil started a 5^th wave down on the hourly chart that should bottom early this week. We want to see two things to indicate a major low in the PMs early next week: (1) A spike in the gold/silver ratio above the upper Bollinger Band and (2) an intraday premium on the Sprott Silver Trust (PSLV) between 2-3%. IMPORTANT NOTE: Our favorite contrarian sentiment gage (wall of worry indicator), the Wall Street Sentiment Survey, swung to a negative reading (BEARS at 30% as of 5/4 compared to 41% on 4/27) - this is an EXCELLENT CONTRARIAN INDICATOR – now back to BULLISH.

Big Picture on Stocks – We bottomed the first phase of a global bear market on 10/4 and we are in a large corrective rally that is now testing the highs of 2011. The forces of monetary relation via the stealth QE3 from the US Fed and the LTRO facility in Europe are levitating markets in the short term and overriding the forces of economic contraction being seen around the globe – AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF 2012. A 5^th wave capitulation down into 5/14 should end the current correction and lead to a rally into at least mid-June.

Big Picture on PMs – The daily chart of gold appears to have finished the Wave C of a large EW a-b-c corrective pattern from the September high on 12/29. Gold made a major low at $1525 as the 12-wk cycle low bottomed in the 12/29-12/30 turn window. Gold has not confirmed the bottoming of a 36-wk cycle low as previously thought but the current liquidation could yield a selling climax by mid-May. Gold needs a 5^th wave down to test $1526 and end this correction – looking for a big reversal up by 5/14.

• Stocks – The ES needs a 5^th wave down into the 5/14-5/15 time window to bottom a 4^th wave correction on the daily chart before a rally into June.
• Gold – Gold just gave us a 3-wave corrective bounce off the $1571 low and that implies more sub-division down into 5/14-5/15. Ideally, we should hold $1525 before a big reversal up. The 36-wk cycle low should bottom by 5/15.
• Silver – Silver should test $26 by 5/15 before a reversal up.
• Bonds – Bonds look on track to make new highs and make lower lows on the 30-yr bond rate.
• Crude oil – Oil started a 5^th wave down on the hourly that should bottom by 5/15.
• Dollar index – The DX appears to want to sub-divide higher on the hourly chart. Our target of .90 appears to be farther off in time – perhaps in Q3 of 2012 as the next stage of the European debt crisis rears its head.

   

TURNING POINT DAY:     

The 5/14-5/15 turn window should give us a capitulation low in several markets – reversals up into mid-June are expected.

 

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

 

WEEKLY COMMENTS: The junior PM sector has been a WASTELAND and the metal of PM junior investors has been sorely tested in the past few weeks ….. BUT …. as Deep Contrarian Investors we will continue to hold our PM juniors (the Hulbert sentiment readings from PM newsletter writers are giving a Major Contrarian Buy Signal) but we will not add anymore until the 50 day MA crosses decisively up through the 200 day MA on the CDNX chart – this may coincide with a "formal QE3 announcement" from the Fed in April.

 

• NEW PICK - Aroway Energy (ARW.V, C$0.65 +.01) – This western Canadian junior is part of a very sweet JV deal with a private partner in the Peace River basin – it's production share should climb from 669 BOE/day (75% black oil) to over 1200 BOE/day later in 2012 – management has selected a good slate of properties for drilling and it is bearing fruit.  Buy on dips. Use a 20% stop from purchase price.
• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.220 -.005) – The stock price fell back to the level of the recent private placement – drill results coming out soon could confirm a world-class find in the Carlin trend – this stock is a buy he5re. But a world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all. 
  • Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.52 -.04) - The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favorin5 the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
  • Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.365 -.015) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013. 
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.2725 +.0025)  The spinoff of the Prophecy Platinum Company (PNIKF) has galvanized this stock – look to buy at key chart support as the broad market corrects into September/October. John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
  • Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.135 -.005) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced.  Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

   

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.



4) Sell half of position on a double.

   

5) In this speculative environment with many junior miners coming to life, put a TIME stop on your junior investment. If your position is DEAD MONEY, consider rotating it to a stock that has more favorable technicals - juniors should have a PERFECT STORM behind their back between now and April 2011 - it's a time to MAKE HAY.